Shy to Spend, Young Japanese Hinder Deflation Battle
青年不花錢 日本經濟難振
By Hiroko Tabuchi

TOKYO – Yusa Nishimura’s loose change could be undermining Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic recovery plan for Japan.
西村由佐存下來的硬幣，可能會打壞日本首相安倍晉三的經濟計畫。

As often as she can, Ms. Nishimura, 23, tucks away 500-yen coins, worth a little under $5, in a folder that makes it easier to count them.
23歲的西村女士盡可能把一枚枚500日圓（不到5美元）硬幣收藏在紙夾裡，讓她更容易數。

Cash nest eggs like Ms. Nishimura’s made sense in slow-growing Japan, where during 15 years of deflation her money was worth more with time. The spa getaway she planned to splurge on was likely to get cheaper if she waited longer.
在經濟成長緩慢的日本，如此存穀防饑很合理，因為在通貨緊縮的15年間，她的錢越擺越值錢。她打算去水療中心享受享受；等得越久，很可能越便宜。

But as Mr. Abe faces fights to lead Japan out of deflation, he is urging cash hoarders like Ms. Nishimura to change their modest mind-sets – for the economy’s sake, as well as for their own.
可是安倍正全力帶領日本走出通縮， 他要求西村這般守財奴改變保守心態，為了經濟，也為自己。

Ms. Nishimura, like many Japanese, is unconvinced. “I’ve never experienced inflation. It doesn’t seem real to me,” said Ms. Nishimura, who works at a technology company in Kobe.
西村跟許多日本人一樣，不信這一套。在神戶一家科技公司上班的西村說：「我從沒碰過通貨膨脹。那對我來說似乎不太真實。」

The result of this uncertainty could be a sputtering economic recovery in Japan, which has experienced a resurgence of sorts under Mr. Abe.
安倍主政下日本經濟已略有起色，這種不確定因素卻可能使復甦步履蹣跚。

Recent data points to weak economic growth in the fourth quarter. The government said the economy had grown even more slowly than estimated, just 0.7 percent on an annualized basis, hurt by weaker-than-expected consumer spending.
最新數據顯示去年第四季經濟長成疲軟。政府指出，受消費支出低於預估影響，經濟年增率為0.7%，低於預估。

If more people expected a future of rising prices and wages, Mr. Abe’s reasoning goes, they would spend now before goods became more expensive. To beat rising prices, they would also invest their money in higher-yielding investments. Companies, confident of a new era of higher sales and profits, would raise prices and wages.
照安倍的推論，如果更多人預期物價及薪資會上漲，現在就會趁漲價之前花錢。他們為了因應物價上漲，也會做殖利率較高的投資。企業由於對銷售及獲利將提高的新時代充滿信心，將會提高價格及薪資。

A big obstacle in Japan’s path, Mr. Abe says, has been the entrenched attitudes. “It is not easy to alter a deflation mind-set that has been in place here for over 15 years,” Mr. Abe said.
安倍指出，根深柢固的心態始終是日本的一大障礙。他說，「通貨緊縮超過15年，不容易使人們改變想法。」

In Japan, overall prices have not risen since the late 1990s. A Big Mac still costs about the same here as it did in 1998: about 300 yen, or almost $3. The price of another popular fast-food offering – the beef-and-rice bowl from the Yoshinoya restaurant chain – has fallen from 400 yen in the late 1990s to 280 yen today. Average worker incomes have also fallen.
1990年代末期以來日本整體物價並未上漲。麥香堡每個約300日圓（3美元），跟1998年無異。另一大眾化速食吉野家牛丼更從1990年代末的1碗400日圓，跌到現在的280日圓。平均工資也下降。

Mr. Abe has pursued aggressive policies to bring an end to deflation. His first measure, which doubled the money supply, has already elevated prices by weakening the yen and pushing up the cost of energy and food imports.
安倍採激進政策終結通縮。第一項措施是將貨幣供給量倍增，使日圓貶值並推高進口能源及食品價格，迄今已使物價上揚。

But even that creep upward in prices has been greeted with shock. Businesses raising their prices are apologetic. “It truly pains our hearts to announce that we will soon revise our prices,” the Kidoizumi brewery in Chiba, east of Tokyo, said recently in an announcement.
物價雖僅緩步上揚，卻已造成震撼。漲價的企業都向顧客致歉。東京東邊千葉縣的木戶泉酒廠最近便發表聲明說：「我們宣布即將提高售價，心中深感痛苦。」

The slow progress in beating deflation reflects the difficulties of overcoming entrenched expectations and behaviors, especially among younger Japanese who have never experienced rising prices, said Taro Saito, senior economist at the NLI Research Institute in Tokyo.
東京日精基礎研究所資深經濟學者齋藤太郎表示，打擊通縮進展緩慢，反映出克服人們根深柢固的期望和行為十分困難，尤其是從未碰過物價上漲的年輕人。

Older generations still remember the “oil shocks” of the 1970s, which sent consumer prices soaring, as well the country’s asset bubble of the 1980s. More recently, they remember how Japan fell into deflation after its bubble economy burst in the early 1990s. A government survey of households last year highlighted stark intergenerational disparities: Households headed by people between 60-69 years increased spending by 2.7 percent, while households headed by under-30-year-olds spent 0.8 percent less.
較老世代還記得1970年代「石油震撼」推高消費者物價，還有1980年代的資產泡沫。更晚近的則有1990年代初期泡沫經濟破滅後陷入通縮。去年政府家計調查凸顯世代差異之大：由60-69歲者當家的家庭支出增加2.7%；當家者不到30歲的家庭支出卻減少0.8%。

Some economists are beginning to question whether the obstacles to beating deflation lie with Mr. Abe’s policies, and not with consumers.
一些經濟學者開始質疑，通縮難以克服，障礙恐在安倍的政策而非消費者。

At the Manrai ramen shop, a Tokyo institution loved by locals for its pork and leek broth and a longstanding commitment to rock-bottom prices, there was consternation when prices recently went up for the first time in over two decades, to 250 yen from 200.
東京Manrai拉麵店以豚肉、湯及長期堅持平價而備受歡迎，最近每碗從200日圓漲到250日圓，是20多年來首次漲價，消費者大感錯愕。

“I can’t believe it,” said Ryo Kobayashi, a recruitment agency worker. “If prices start rising everywhere, I’m not going to be able to eat out anymore.”
人力仲介業員工小林亮說：「我無法置信。如果樣樣都漲價，我就吃不起外食了。」

Manrai raised prices not because it was confident of future sales but because it was squeezed by higher costs. Rather than start an economic revival, this “cost-push” inflation, as economists call it, could become a rising threat to Japanese stuck in a deflationary mind-set. They could see their savings eroded by rising prices, warned Yukio Sakurai, a housing analyst in Tokyo.
Manrai漲價非因對未來營業額有信心，而是受成本提高擠壓。這種經濟學者所說的「成本推動型」通膨不能帶動經濟復甦，反而可能對緊抱通縮思維的日本民眾構成日益嚴重的威脅。東京的住宅業分析師櫻井幸雄表示，民眾的儲蓄可能變得越來越薄。

And choices that made sense under deflation – renting, for example, instead of buying – could saddle them with mounting costs and shut them out of any benefits of a stronger economy.
在通貨緊縮時期的一些合理選擇，如只租屋不買房，可能使這些人生活成本不斷加重，卻無緣分享經濟轉強的任何好處。

“Younger Japanese need to change their mind-sets now, or get left behind,” Mr. Sakurai said. “They would do well to talk to their parents and grandparents.”
櫻井說：「日本年輕人現在必須改變思維，否則就要落伍。他們應該跟父母及祖父母多談談。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/11/business/international/yen-pinching-undercuts-japans-push-against-years-of-deflation.html

紐約時報中文版翻譯：
http://cn.nytimes.com/business/20140313/c13deflation/zh-hant/

2014-04-08聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 任中原譯 原文參見紐時週報七版上