China’s Economy Slips, Dimming Outlook for Graduates
大陸經濟走緩 畢業生就業難
By Keith Bradsher and Sue-Lin Wong

HONG KONG – A record seven million students will graduate from universities and colleges across China in the coming weeks, but their job prospects appear bleak – the latest sign of a troubled Chinese economy.
未來數周大陸將有人數創紀錄的七百萬名畢業生走出大專校門，然而他們的就業前景相當嚴峻。這是大陸經濟成長面臨障礙的最新跡象。

Businesses say they are swamped with job applications but have few positions to offer as economic growth has begun to falter. Twitter-like microblogging sites in China are full of laments from graduates with dim prospects.
企業界表示接獲大量求職申請，卻因整體經濟走緩而只能提供少數職缺。大陸許多類似推特的微網誌充斥畢業生對未來的哀嘆。

The Chinese government is worried, saying that the problem could affect social stability, and it has ordered schools, government agencies and state-owned enterprises to hire more graduates to help relieve joblessness. “The only thing that worries them more than an unemployed low-skilled person is an unemployed educated person,” said Shang-Jin Wei, an economist at Columbia Business School in New York.
中共當局引以為憂，認為這會影響社會安定，指示各學校、政府機構與國營企業聘雇更多畢業生，以協助舒緩失業問題。紐約哥倫比亞大學商學院經濟學教授魏尚進說：「唯一比低技能勞工失業更令他們擔心的是，受過良好教育的人失業。」

Lu Mai of the government-backed China Development Research Foundation said in a speech this month that less than half of this year’s graduates had found jobs.
官方贊助的中國發展研究基金會秘書長盧邁最近在演講時說，今年已經找到工作的畢業生不到半數。

Graduating seniors at all but a few of China’s top universities say that very few people they know are finding jobs – and that those who received offers last winter were seeing them rescinded.
大陸大部分頂尖大學的準畢業生表示，他們認識的人只有極少數已經找到工作，去年冬天找到工作的一些人工作相繼被取消。

“Some of my classmates have been hired and fired in the same month when the companies realized that they could not afford the salaries after all,” said Yan Shuang, a senior at the Beijing Institute of Technology.
北京理工大學的四年級學生嚴雙（譯音）說：「我有些同學同一個月裡找到工作又被炒了魷魚。因為公司發現實在負擔不起這些薪水。」

Ms. Yan said she had been promised a job at a sports clothing company over the winter. But the company canceled all hiring plans in March.
嚴雙說，一家運動服飾公司去年冬天答應聘雇她，今年三月卻取消了全部聘雇計畫。

China quadrupled the number of students enrolled in universities and colleges over the last decade. But its economy is still driven by manufacturing, with a preponderance of blue-collar jobs. Prime Minister Li Keqiang personally led the cabinet meeting in May that produced the directive for schools, government agencies and state-owned enterprises to hire more graduates, a strategy that has been used with increasing frequency in recent years to absorb jobless but educated youths.
大陸大專院校招生人數過去10年間增至四倍，經濟卻仍以製造業為主，又以藍領工作居多。今年五月，總理李克強親自主持國務院會議，呼籲各學校、政府機構及國營企業聘雇更多畢業生。近年來，中共日益仰賴這種策略以消化受過良好教育的失業青年。

A national survey released last winter found that in the age bracket of 21- to 25-year-olds, 16 percent of the men and women with college degrees were unemployed.
根據去年冬天公布的全國調查數據，21至25歲具大專學歷者，約有16%失業。

But only 4 percent of those with an elementary school education were unemployed. Wages for workers who have come in from rural areas to urban factories have surged 70 percent in the last four years; wages for young people in white-collar sectors have stayed steady or declined.
而僅具小學學歷者卻只有4%失業。過去四年間，從鄉下到城裡工廠工作的勞工薪資激增70%，青年白領勞工的薪資則持平或下降。

Economists have long estimated that the Chinese economy needs to grow 7 or 8 percent annually to avoid large-scale unemployment. But that advice has become less reliable as the labor market has split. Much faster growth may be needed to create enough white-collar jobs for the graduates pouring out of universities.
經濟學家早已指出，大陸經濟每年須成長7%到8%才能避免嚴重失業出現。然而隨著勞力市場分裂，這種意見也變得不那麼可靠了。大陸恐須大幅加快經濟成長腳步，才能為大批畢業生創造足夠的白領就業機會。

The International Monetary Fund predicts the Chinese economy will grow 7.75 percent this year – slower than the growth of 10 to 14 percent before 2008, but still a much faster pace than in the West. The main problem for China lies in the sheer growth in number of graduates; the United States produces three million graduates a year, while China has increased its annual number of graduates by more than five million in a single decade.
國際貨幣基金預估大陸經濟今年可望成長7.75%，不及2008年之前的10%至14%，卻仍遠在西方國家之上。中國大陸主要癥結在於畢業生增加太快。美國每年約有300萬名畢業生，中國大陸的畢業生卻在10年之間增加了500多萬人。

One response is to urge more graduates to take jobs at small, private companies. But a generation of people who grew up under the government’s “one child” policy has proved risk-averse and slow to join or set up new companies. “I would not work for private companies, that is not secure – only state-owned ones,” Ms. Yan said.
當局因應這個問題的方法之一是，呼籲畢業生盡量在民間的小企業就業。然而在「一胎化」政策下成長的中國大陸新世代不但不肯承擔風險，而且不願意加入或創立新公司。嚴雙說：「我不願意為私人公司工作。這不保險。只有國營企業才可靠。」

Many graduating seniors, seeing limited job opportunities, are opting instead for graduate schools.
有鑑於就業機會有限，許多準畢業生選擇繼續念研究所。

Financial services is an extremely popular field. Ministry of Human Resources statistics show that average pay for banking sector employees, at $14,500 a year, is twice the level of pay in sectors like health care and education.
金融服務業是非常受歡迎的領域。人力資源和社會保障部的數據顯示，中國大陸金融業員工的年薪平均約1.45萬美元，是醫療與教育業的兩倍。

Lin Yinbi, a senior graduating in trade and economics from the prestigious Renmin University in Beijing, said that he had job offers from a heating company and a supermarket chain, but was still applying for a well-paid bank job.
北京人民大學主修貿易與經濟學的準畢業生林引璧（譯音）表示，他曾經獲得一家熱力公司與一家連鎖超市提供職缺，然而他還在申請薪資比較高的銀行工作。

“The question is, What kind of job is it?” he said. “Does it align with our major? Does it pay enough? Do we have room to grow?”
他說：「問題是，它是什麼樣的工作？是否與我們主修的科目有關？薪資是否合理？我們有無成長空間？」

Wang Zhian, a Chinese broadcaster, created a stir by recommending that college graduates take jobs packing for moving companies.
中國大陸廣播員王志安最近建議畢業生從事搬運公司的包裝工作。這番話引起議論。

“The most important thing for graduating seniors is to figure out a way to survive, and if that means you have to become a moving company worker, then so be it,” he said. “You can’t live off your parents forever.”
他說：「對準畢業生而言，最重要的是找到活下去的方法。如果這意味你必須成為搬運工，那就這樣吧。你不能永遠依賴父母。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/17/business/global/faltering-economy-in-china-dims-job-prospects-for-graduates.html

2013-07-02聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 陳世欽譯 原文參見紐時週報七版上