Malaise in Europe Threatens to Spread
歐洲經濟問題可能蔓延
By Jack Ewing

FRANKFURT – No company symbolizes German industrial might like Daimler, the maker of Mercedes-Benz cars and trucks. So when the company said in late April that it, too, had finally been caught in the downdraft of the European economic crisis, it was an ominous sign for all of the Continent, if not the whole world.
生產賓士客車及卡車的戴姆勒公司堪稱德國工業實力的象徵。因此，當它四月底表示終於也為歐洲經濟危機所傷時，這是對整個歐洲大陸，甚至全世界的一個警訊。

German exporters like Daimler have been bastions of stability on a continent burdened with shaky banks, dysfunctional governments and legions of unemployed youth – not to mention the worst auto industry slump in two decades. But Daimler’s glum forecast for 2013 was the latest evidence that Germany, and other relatively healthy countries like Austria and Finland, risk falling into the recession that has long afflicted their southern neighbors.
歐陸銀行搖搖欲墜，政府機能大失，青年失業嚴重，遑論汽車業陷入20年來最大衰退。如此局面下，包括戴姆勒在內的德國出口商一直是歐陸經濟賴以穩定的基石。戴姆勒公司不看好今年的業績足以證明，德國與其他相對健全的歐陸國家如奧地利、芬蘭，可能陷入糾纏南歐國家多年的衰退。

The slowdown in Germany was foreshadowed by months of declining industrial output, said Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
紐約州瓦哈拉市研究機構「高頻經濟」首席經濟學家溫柏格表示，德國工業產值連續數月下降預示它的衰退。

“The E.U. has made Europe a much more cohesive economy, which is good when things are going up,” he said. “But when things are going down the multiplier is very strong. An outgoing tide lowers all ships.”
他說：「歐盟使歐洲成為更緊密的經濟體。景氣時是好事。不景氣時乘數效應也可怕得很。水退船低。」

The region’s overall economic weakness as well as slowing demand in China and other big markets for German exports of consumer products, cars and sophisticated machine tools, industrial robots and construction equipment are finally taking their toll.
區域整體經濟疲弱，加上中國大陸等德國商品主要出口市場需求減少，終於產生了殺傷力。這些出口產品包括消費商品、汽車、精密工具機、工業機器人、建築設備。

Just one more consecutive quarter of shrinking economic output and Germany would officially enter a recession. The same is true of Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Austria, even Sweden and Finland. The Netherlands has already suffered two quarters of declining gross domestic product.
如果經濟產值再萎縮一季，德國將正式陷入衰退。比利時、法國、盧森堡、奧地利甚至瑞典、芬蘭亦然。荷蘭國內生產毛額已連續兩季萎縮。

Further evidence of the spreading European recession came when the euro zone jobless rate was reported as having risen to a record 12.1 percent in March. The unemployment rate went up by 0.1 percent from February, when the previous was set, Euro-stat, the statistical agency of the European Union, reported from Luxembourg. A year earlier, the rate was 11 percent.
今年三月歐元區失業率達空前的12.1%。是歐洲衰退進一步蔓延的又一證據。總部設在盧森堡的歐盟機構歐洲統計局表示，歐洲整體失業率今年二月創下新紀錄，3月又上升0.1%。1年前的失業率是11%。

Two nations are staggering under depression-level jobless rates: Greece had a rate of 27.2 percent in January, the latest month for which data were available; and Spain had unemployment of 26.7 percent in March.
有兩個國家因失業率達大蕭條時期水平而步履蹣跚。希臘一月（可取得的最新數字）失業率高達27.2%，西班牙三月也達26.7%。

“The reality is that Europe still faces severe vulnerabilities that – if unaddressed – could degenerate into a stagnation scenario,” David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund.
國際貨幣基金首席副總經理李普頓說：「真相是，歐洲仍有許多嚴重弱點。若不解決，可能陷入停滯。」

Germany and the other 26 countries of the European Union together represent the world’s second-largest economy and as a bloc it is the single-largest United States trading partner. The further delay in Europe’s recovery that a German recession would cause would seriously hamper growth in the United States, Asia and Latin America.
德國與歐盟另26國合計是全球第二大經濟體，也是美國最大貿易夥伴。如果歐洲因為德國衰退而致復甦進一步延緩，美國、亞洲與拉丁美洲的成長將嚴重受阻。

What growth remains in the region is coming mostly from countries in Eastern Europe. Poland is protected by its large domestic market and a healthy banking system. After a severe downturn that began in 2008, growth is rebounding in the Baltic nations of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. In that recession, wages fell, real estate prices dropped and banks worked through the painful process of improving their financial condition.
歐陸的其他成長主要來自東歐國家。波蘭因為國內市場夠大，金融體系健全而得以免受波及。波羅的海的愛沙尼亞、立陶宛、拉脫維亞2008年陷入嚴重衰退，如今已恢復成長。當時，薪資與房地產價格雙雙下降，銀行則歷經改善財務狀況的痛苦過程。

Unemployment there is by no means low, but those countries benefit by being the low-wage economies of Europe. They continue to attract investment of capital. It also helps that those economies, with the exception of Estonia, do not use the euro as their currency. They can adjust their currency more easily to changing economic conditions in the rest of the world.
這些國家的失業率並不低，卻因薪資較低而受益。它們持續吸引投資資本。除愛沙尼亞外，這些經濟體不使用歐元的事實也有幫助，可依世上其他地區經濟狀況的變化而隨時調整匯率。

In Germany, there is little overt sign of crisis. Unemployment is 5.4 percent compared with an average of 10.9 percent in Europe. But polls show businesses are growing pessimistic. “The German market cannot decouple from this environment,” Bodo K. Uebber, the Daimler chief financial officer, said.
德國尚未出現明顯的危機徵兆，失業率約5.4%，低於歐洲10.9%的平均值。然而多項意見調查顯示德國企業界已經開始悲觀。戴姆勒財務長魏柏說：「德國市場無法獨立於所處環境之外。」

The problem for the rest of Europe is that any hope for recovery is pinned on a robust German economy. Companies in Spain and Italy have depended on German demand to compensate for a collapse in consumer spending in their own countries.
歐洲其他地區面臨的問題是，復甦的希望全繫於德國經濟強韌。西班牙與義大利的企業必須依賴德國的需求，以抵銷國內消費開支崩解的效應。

“In my area there are some enterprises that work 100 percent to serve Germany,” said Mario Moretti Polegato, the founder and chief executive of Geox, a shoemaker based in Montebelluna, Italy, near Venice.
健樂士是威尼斯附近蒙特貝魯納的義大利鞋廠，創辦人兼執行長波雷加托說：「在我們這一帶，有些企業以德國為唯一客戶。」

As the economic situation worsened, the European Central Bank on May 2 cut its benchmark rate to a record low of 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent, as expected. But it remained unwilling to deploy more powerful weapons that many economists say are needed to give a jolt to the Continent’s economy.
隨著經濟局勢惡化，歐洲央行果如預期，於本月二日將基準利率由0.75%降至破紀錄的0.5%，但還是不願採用許多經濟學家認為刺激歐陸經濟所必須的更有力工具。

It is unlikely that a rate cut would address a more fundamental problem in the euro zone: the lack of credit in countries that need it most. Extraordinary measures by the central bank, including virtually unlimited loans to euro zone banks at the rock-bottom official interest rate, have not trickled down to help corporate borrowers in countries like Spain or Italy. The lack of credit is particularly vexing for the small and medium-size companies that are too small to raise money on the bond market and thus depend on banks.
僅僅降息不太可能解決歐元區一項更基本的問題：最需要的國家告貸無門。歐洲央行曾經採取若干特別手段，包括對歐元區銀行提供無上限的超低息貸款，然而它們並未流入西班牙與義大利等國的困難企業手中。對因規模太小無法在債券市場籌資，只能仰賴銀行的中小企業而言，無從借貸的問題尤其困擾。

Signs of a spreading recession are also strengthening the position of those people who argue that countries like Portugal, Spain and Greece should not be compelled to cut government spending so quickly. They say countries that have budget surpluses, like Germany, should increase spending to stimulate demand.
有些人認為不應強迫葡萄牙、西班牙與希臘政府迅速削減開支，衰退蔓延的跡象使這種論點顯得更為有力。他們說，德國等有預算結餘的國家應該擴大開支以刺激需求。

In the meantime, Italian companies like tire maker Pirelli are trimming jobs in Europe and instead investing in Asia and other markets that seem to offer more promise.
另一方面，倍耐力輪胎廠等義大利企業已經開始裁減在歐洲的人力，轉往亞洲等似乎更有希望的地區投資。

Mr. Polegato expressed faith that Italian creativity and design would eventually prevail.
波雷加托認為，義大利的創意與設計必能脫穎而出。

But he sounded less certain about the prospects for better government. “A lot of Italian politicians have no feeling for the real economy or business,” he said.
他對政府效能提高的前景比較沒有把握。他說：「許多義大利政治人物對真實的經濟或企業毫無感覺。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/business/southern-europes-recession-threatens-to-spread-north.html

Graphic：Signs of the European Union’s Weakening Economies
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/04/25/business/Signs-of-the-European-Unions-Weakening-Economies.html

紐時中文網翻譯：
http://cn.nytimes.com/business/20130428/c28recession/zh-hant/

2013-05-14聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 陳世欽譯 原文參見紐時週報八版