Cannibalize the Future

By PAUL KRUGMAN

One general rule of modern politics is that the people who talk most about future generations — who go around solemnly declaring that we’re burdening our children with debt — are, in practice, the people most eager to sacrifice our future for short-term political gain. You can see that principle at work in the House Republican budget, which starts with dire warnings about the evils of deficits, then calls for tax cuts that would make the deficit even bigger, offset only by the claim to have a secret plan to make up for the revenue losses somehow or other.

And you can see it in the actions of Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, who talks loudly about acting responsibly but may actually be the least responsible governor the state has ever had.

Mr. Christie’s big move — the one that will define his record — was his unilateral decision back in 2010 to cancel work that was already under way on a new rail tunnel linking New Jersey with New York. At the time, Mr. Christie claimed that he was just being fiscally responsible, while critics said that he had canceled the project just so he could raid it for funds.

Now the independent Government Accountability Office has weighed in with a report on the controversy, and it confirms everything the critics were saying.

Much press coverage of the new report focuses, understandably, on the evidence that Mr. Christie made false statements about the tunnel’s financing and cost. The governor asserted that the projected costs were rising sharply; the report tells us that this simply wasn’t true. The governor claimed that New Jersey was being asked to pay for 70 percent of a project that would shower benefits on residents of New York; in fact, the bulk of the financing would have come either from the federal government or from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which collects revenue from residents of both states.

But while it’s important to document Mr. Christie’s mendacity, it’s even more important to understand the utter folly of his decision. The new report drives home just how necessary, and very much overdue, the tunnel project was and is. Demand for public transit is rising across America, reflecting both population growth and shifting preferences in an era of high gas prices. Yet New Jersey is linked to New York by just two single-track tunnels built a century ago — tunnels that run at 100 percent of capacity during peak hours. How could this situation not call for new investment?

Well, Mr. Christie insisted that his state couldn’t afford the cost. As we’ve already seen, however, he apparently couldn’t make that case without being dishonest about the numbers. So what was his real motive?

One answer is that the governor is widely assumed to have national ambitions, and the Republican base hates government spending in general (unless it’s on weapons). And it hates public transportation in particular. Indeed, three other Republican governors — in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin — have also canceled public transportation projects supported by federal funds. The difference, of course, is that New Jersey is a densely populated state, most of whose residents live either in Greater New York or Greater Philadelphia; given that position, public transit is the state’s lifeblood, and refusing to invest in such transportation will strangle the state’s economy.

Another answer is that canceling the tunnel allowed Mr. Christie to divert funds from that project — as his critics have said, to cannibalize the investment — and put them into the state highway fund, thereby avoiding the need to raise the state’s tax on gasoline. New Jersey gas taxes, by the way, are lower in real terms than at any point in the state’s history. But, as a candidate, Mr. Christie said that he wouldn’t raise those taxes, so cannibalizing the tunnel helped him avoid embarrassment.

The crucial point about both of these explanations is that they stand Mr. Christie’s narrative about himself on its head. The governor poses as a man willing to make hard choices for the future, but what he actually did was sacrifice the future for the sake of personal political advantage. He catered to national Republican prejudices that are completely at odds with New Jersey’s needs; he cared more about avoiding embarrassment over a misguided campaign pledge than about serving an urgent public need.

Unfortunately, Mr. Christie’s behavior is all too typical these days.

America used to be a country that thought big about the future. Major public projects, from the Erie Canal to the interstate highway system, used to be a well-understood component of our national greatness. Nowadays, however, the only big projects politicians are willing to undertake — with expense no object — seem to be wars. Funny how that works.

以減赤之名…政客扼殺未來

當代政治學的通則之一，就是對未來世代談得最起勁者 — 義正辭嚴宣稱我們把債留給子孫的那群人 — 其實最熱中於為了短期政治利益而犧牲我們的未來。例如在眾議院共和黨所提出的預算案裡，先嚴厲地警告預算赤字的罪惡，然後卻主張減稅讓赤字更高，而只會宣稱有一套填補稅收損失的神秘計畫來搪塞。

從紐澤西州州長克里斯提的行為，也看到這種作風；他一方面大聲疾呼人們必須對行為負責，但實際上可能是最不負責任的州長。

克里斯提的大動作，便是在2010年片面決定取消一條已經動工、貫通紐澤西與紐約的鐵路隧道。當時他聲稱此舉是為了對財政負責，批評者卻指他取消這項計畫只是為了挪用資金。

獨立的政府責任署（GAO）現已對此案提出評估報告，證實批評者的說法完全正確。

新聞界對這份報告的報導都聚焦於各項證據，以證明他對隧道的籌資與成本說法不實。他當時曾斬釘截鐵地預估，興建成本正大幅上升；但調查報告指他所言不實。他還宣稱這項計畫的成本紐澤西州必須負擔70%，卻只對紐約州居民有利；事實上大部份資金不是來自聯邦政府，就是由紐約及紐澤西港務局向兩州居民集資。

拆穿克里斯提的謊言，可了解他的決策有多麼愚蠢。調查報告指出這項隧道工程有其必要，卻遭到嚴重耽擱。全美國對大眾運輸的需求都在持續增加，主要是反映人口成長，以及高汽油價格時代人們的偏好轉移。紐澤西與紐約州的連繫，只有兩條在一個世紀以前鋪設的單軌鐵路隧道，尖峰時間的利用率高達百分百。這還不需要做新的投資嗎？

克里斯提堅稱紐澤西州無法承擔興建成本，卻顯然已無法自圓其說。那麼他真正的動機何在？

答案之一是，外界普遍認為他有逐鹿全國政壇的野心，而共和黨基本上痛恨政府的一般性支出（除非是買武器），尤其痛恨大眾運輸設施。事實上其他三位共和黨籍的州長（佛羅里達、俄亥俄及威斯康辛州）也取消了由聯邦政府基金支持的大眾運輸計畫。紐澤西州人口稠密，大部份居民都是在大紐約或大費城區討生活，大眾運輸設施是紐澤西的生命線；拒絕對這類交通設施進行投資，勢必打擊該州的經濟。

另一個答案是，取消隧道計畫讓他能把經費挪為他用；正如批評者所說，他是在挖東牆而補西牆，把錢用到州公路基金上，如此便不必提高該州的汽油稅。目前紐澤西州汽油稅的實質稅率是該州有史以來最低的。克里斯提當初在競選時，曾表示他不會提高汽油稅，因此把興建隧道的錢挪作他用，將讓他免掉加稅的麻煩。

這兩項說法的關鍵點，都在於克里斯提的行為完全基於一己之私。他擺出一副願意為未來做出困難抉擇的姿態，但其實只是為了自己的政治利益而犧牲了未來。他迎合共和黨的偏見，完全違背紐澤西州的需要；他所在意的是不要讓競選承諾給自己惹來麻煩，而非滿足民眾的迫切需要。

不幸的是，目前像克里斯提這種作風卻相當普遍。

美國曾是能放眼大未來的國家。大型的公共建設計畫，從伊利運河到州際公路系統，都是美國能夠成就其偉大的要素。然而，如今政客唯一願意從事的大型計畫似乎是戰爭，而且不計任何代價，實在荒謬。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/13/opinion/krugman-cannibalize-the-future.html

2012-04-14/經濟日報/A8版/國際焦點 編譯任中原