In Iran Standoff, A Boon For Russia
伊朗僵局持續俄國漁翁得利
By Andrew E. Kramer

MOSCOW – For months, the Russian government has opposed Western petroleum sanctions against Iran. But new threats to Iranian oil flow could have at least one beneficiary: Russia.
俄國政府數月來一直反對西方國家對伊朗石油出口實施禁運。然而伊朗原油出口再遭威脅至少將使一個國家獲利：俄國。

The Russian oil industry was already reaping the rewards of higher global oil prices from Iranian tensions, even before Tehran on February 15 threatened to cut off oil to six European nations.
即使在伊朗二月15日揚言停止對六個歐洲國家出口石油之前，俄國石油業已因伊朗僵局導致國際油價大漲而得利。

Now, Russia’s pipelines stand ready to serve customers willing to pay a premium price.
現在，俄國的石油輸送管隨時準備為願出高價的客戶服務。

“It’s pretty good for Russia right now,” said Jesse Mercer, a senior oil analyst in Houston.
休士頓的資深石油分析師莫瑟說：「現在是俄國的大好時機。」

Russia is now the world’s largest oil producer, pumping about 10 million barrels of oil a day. Of this, Russia exports 7 million barrels a day, mostly to Europe and Asia.
俄國目前是舉世最大產油國，日產1000萬桶，約700萬桶出口，大多輸往歐洲與亞洲。

For Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil and the Russian-British joint venture TNK-BP, the international tensions that began over Iran’s nuclear development program last autumn have meant a windfall. Analysts estimate that Iran jitters have added $5 to $15 a barrel to the global price of oil, which means an extra $35 million to $105 million a day for the Russian industry. And the taxes from those sales have been a political windfall for Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin as he campaigns to return as Russia’s president. “In the United States, when oil prices go up, the president’s ratings go down,” Mr. Mercer said. “In Russia, it’s the opposite.”
對俄羅斯石油、盧克石油，以及俄英合資的TNK-BP等石油公司而言，去年秋天因伊朗核子研發計畫而出現的國際緊張局勢意味一大筆意外之財。分析師估計，國際油價因此每桶上漲5到15美元，每天可為俄國石油業帶來3500萬到1.05億美元額外收入。對試圖回鍋擔任總統的總理普亭而言，這些石油銷售的稅收也使他政治資本大增。莫瑟說：「在美國，油價上漲總統支持度就下降。俄國正好相反。」

Rising prices are a boon for every oil producer. But Russia has a particular advantage: the ability to direct more or less of its oil either eastward or westward, to Europe and Asia. Also, the grade of Russia’s main export oil, Ural Blend crude, is similar to Iran’s and has already been in greater demand as an alternative to Iranian oil for European refineries. Both grades are now trading for about $119.50 a barrel, analysts say.
油價上漲產油國無不受益。不過俄國獨具優勢：可調節向東西兩側的亞洲及歐洲輸出石油的量。此外，俄國的主要出口油種烏拉爾混合油與伊朗原油近似，已因歐洲煉油廠不再採用伊朗原油而需求更大。分析家說，這兩種等級的石油交易價格已來到大約每桶119.50美元。

The six nations Iran threatened to cut off – Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Greece and Portugal – plan to stop buying Iranian oil in July, as part of a European Union embargo. At its recent peak, Europe was buying up to 660,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day, according to PFC Energy.
伊朗揚言停止供油的六個歐洲國家是義大利、西班牙、法國、荷蘭、希臘與葡葡牙。這六國計畫今年七月起配合歐盟對伊朗的禁運，不再進口伊朗石油。據PFC能源顧問公司統計，在最近的高峰期歐洲每天自伊朗進口66萬桶石油。

On February 19, Iran said it had cut off sales to Britain and France.
伊朗二月19日聲稱，已停止對英國與法國出口石油。

If the sanctions take effect then, oil prices could rise further.
如果禁運生效，油價可能還會進一步上漲。

And even if oil prices later fall, Russia’s natural gas monopoly, Gazprom, would continue to benefit for a time. Russian gas prices in Europe, Gazprom’s biggest export customer, are tied to the price of oil under long-term contracts.
即使油價稍後回跌，俄國獨占事業俄羅斯天然氣公司仍可持續受益一段時間。歐洲是該公司最大出口市場，依雙方長期合約俄國天然氣價須與油價掛鉤。

In December the United States Congress passed sanctions that, among other measures, impose penalties on foreign banks that clear payments for Iranian oil.
去年12月美國國會通過多項制裁措施，包括對向伊朗支付石油貨款的外國銀行處以罰款。

But the White House also cautioned that the bank strictures could interfere in the business dealings of American allies. Some provisions of the measure, also to begin in July, would be nonbinding.
然而白宮指出，針對銀行的限制措施可能對美國盟邦的商務交易造成干擾。同樣預定七月生效的該措施部分條款不具法律約束力。

China is expected to circumvent the sanctions with tacit American approval. And India has negotiated to barter wheat for oil, or pay Iran directly in rupees.
中國大陸可能在美國默許下規避這些制裁措施。印度則已與伊朗磋商以小麥交換石油，或以印度幣盧比支付油款。

There are other limits to Russia’s ability to fully capitalize on the Iranian oil upheaval. The Russian industry is already producing petroleum at full capacity, since so much of it comes from far northern and Arctic wells that must operate full time to keep from freezing. So Russia cannot suddenly increase export capacity.
俄國利用這場石油變局而大發橫財的能力還受到些其他限制。俄國石油業產能已達極限，因為有頗大部分產自極北方與北極區的油井，這些油井必須全天運轉以免結凍。因此俄國無法驟然提高出口量。

But its extensive pipeline network gives Russia enviable flexibility to direct its oil to wherever demand – and prices – are highest. That could be a boon for its Asian oil distribution.
然而綿密的輸送網使俄國享有令人羨慕的操作彈性，隨時可以把石油輸送到需求最強、價格最高的地區。這可讓俄國提高對亞洲的出口。

And a trans-Siberian pipeline scheduled for completion this autumn will allow Russia to export petroleum more cheaply than its current railroad shipments to a Pacific port where it is then pumped into tankers for shipments to Japan and South Korea.
一條橫越西伯利亞地區的輸送管線預定今年秋天完工，屆時俄國就能降低輸出石油的成本。目前是以鐵路把石油運到一濱太平洋港口，再以油輪運至日本與南韓。

Russian exporters will gain the ability to easily exploit likely price differences between China, if it continues as expected to buy Iranian oil, and Japan and South Korea, which probably will not.
如果中國大陸一如預期繼續自伊朗進口石油，俄國的石油出口商必能輕而易舉的利用中國大陸，以及可能不再自伊朗進口石油的日本與南韓之間的價差坐收可觀的利潤。

“Russia could arbitrage between the two,” said Mr. Mercer, “and it could play to their advantage.”
莫瑟說：「俄國可能在兩者之間套利，這可能對他們有利。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/17/business/global/russian-oil-industry-set-to-capitalize-if-embargo-hits-iran.html

2012-03-06聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 陳世欽譯原文參見紐時週報七版上