A decade ago, the economist Jim O’Neill served notice to the Western investment community that the world was being transformed by the rise of emerging markets. He dubbed the four behemoths the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China. But there is another force that is reshaping the global economy today: the rise, in the developed Western economies, of the “1 percent” and the creation of what many are calling a new gilded age. 
十年前經濟學家歐尼爾鄭重告知西方國家投資界，全世界正因新興市場的崛起而在轉變之中。他把這四隻「巨獸」稱為「金磚四國 (BRICs )」：即巴西、俄羅斯、印度與中國大陸。但今天又有另一種力量正在塑造全球經濟：西方已開發經濟體之中的「1%」正在崛起，並創造出許多人戲稱的「新鍍金年代」。

In the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution and the opening of the American frontier created the Gilded Age and the robber barons who ruled it. Today, as the world economy is being reshaped by the technology revolution and globalization, the resulting economic transformation is creating a new gilded age and a new plutocracy.
回溯到19世紀，工業革命加上美國開放移民，曾經創造出一個「鍍金年代」，以及一批統治這個時代的「強盜鉅子」（編按：指靠殘酷剝削而致富的工業大亨）。時至今日，由於科技革命與全球化正在塑造世界經濟，所帶來的經濟轉型造就出一個新的「鍍金年代」，及一批新的財閥。

Indeed we are living through slightly different, intertwined gilded ages that are unfolding simultaneously. The West is experiencing a second gilded age, while the emerging markets, as Mr. O’Neill and others have documented, are experiencing their first gilded age. The economic transformation is even more dramatic than that in the first Gilded Age. Now, billions of people are taking part across much of the globe.
事實上，我們正經歷著好幾個大同小異、相互糾結，而又同時呈現的鍍金年代。目前西方正經歷第二個鍍金年代；而如歐尼爾及其他人所舉證的新興市場，則正經歷他們的第一個鍍金年代。這回經濟轉型的程度甚至比上一個鍍金年代還要劇烈。現在全球許多地區有多達數十億的人正參與這場轉型。

“It is structurally much more extreme now in multiple dimensions,” said Michael Spence, a Nobel-winning economist and an adviser to the Chinese government. “Now that the emerging economies are pretty big, this is just a harder problem. It is so different from previous economic change that I think these are issues that we have never wrestled with before.
諾貝爾經濟學獎得主兼中國大陸政府經濟顧問史賓塞說：「就結構而言，它在許多面向上都遠比上次激進。由於新興經濟體規模都相當大，問題也就更麻煩。這與以往的經濟變遷非常不同，因此我認為這些問題也是我們從未因應過的。」

The gilded age of the emerging markets is the easier to understand. China, India and parts of Latin America and Africa are industrializing and urbanizing, just as the West did in the 19th century, and with the added spark of the technology revolution and a globalized economy. The countries of the former Soviet Union are not industrializing – Stalin accomplished that – but they have been replacing the failed central planning systems that coordinated their creaky economies with a market system, and many are enjoying a rise in their standard of living. The people at the top of all of the emerging economies are benefiting most, but the transition is also pulling tens of millions of people into the middle class and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.
新興市場的鍍金年代比較容易了解。大陸、印度及部分拉丁美洲與非洲國家正在經歷工業化與都市化，一如西方國家在19世紀時所經歷的，而且還加上科技革命及全球化的火花。前蘇聯的附庸國並未如當年的史達林般推動工業化，但這些國家正在淘汰賴以調和凋敝的經濟，已證實無效的中央計畫制度，代之以市場體系，而其中許多國家生活水準已見提高。新興經濟體中最上層的人受益最多，但這場轉型也將數以千萬計的人拉高到中產階級，並讓數以億計的人脫離貧窮。

The West is also participating in the gilded age of the emerging markets. Those who own companies in Dallas or Düsseldorf now employ many of the urbanizing peasants of the emerging markets. That is good news for the plutocrats in the West, who can reap the benefits of simultaneously being 19th-century robber barons and 21st-century technology tycoons. But it makes the transition even harsher for the Western middle class, which is being buffeted by two gilded ages at the same time.
西方國家也在新興市場的鍍金年代參了一角。那一些原本在美國達拉斯或德國杜塞道夫開公司的老闆，現在跑到新興市場去雇用許多正在「都市化」的農民。這對西方國家的財閥而言是一大利多，他們能夠同時收割19世紀「強盜鉅子」與21世紀「科技大亨」的雙重利益。但這使得西方國家的中產階級在這場轉型中處境益發惡劣，他們同時遭到兩種鍍金年代的打擊。

The combined power of globalization and the technology revolution has also turbocharged the economic transformation of the emerging markets, which is why Mr. O’Neill’s BRICs thesis has been so powerfully borne out.
全球化與科技革命的綜合力量，也加速帶動新興市場的經濟轉型，這也正是歐尼爾的金磚四國說能獲如此強勁支撐的原因。

“We are seeing much more rapid growth in developing countries, especially China and India, because the policies and technologies in the West have allowed a lot of medium-skilled jobs to be done” in those countries, said Daron Acemoglu, professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a native of Turkey, which Mr. O’Neill says is one of the Next 11 emerging markets that are joining the BRICs.
麻省理工學院土耳其裔政治學教授阿塞莫魯說：「我們看到開發中國家成長遠較以往迅速，尤其是中國與印度，因為西方國家的政策與科技讓許多中等技術的工作得以在這些國家完成；歐尼爾已將土耳其等11個新興市場列為下一波金磚國。

The gilded age in the developing world has its strains and conflicts. Now that television and the Internet can bring to vivid life the economic gap between a factory worker in, say, Brazil, and the things the middle class takes for granted in the West, even economic growth of 5 percent or so might feel too slow. That will be especially true when the rich in developing countries live a life of 21st-century plutocratic splendor that would have dazzled a Rockefeller or a Carnegie.
開發中世界的鍍金年代裡，有緊張，也有衝突。目前電視與網路已能鮮活展現，一名巴西工廠工人與西方中產階級認為理當擁有的東西之間仍有明顯經濟差距，在這種情況下，即使經濟成長率達到5%可能都還嫌慢。而當開發中國家的新貴們享受著21世紀財閥式的璀璨生活，足以讓洛克菲勒或卡內基都瞠目結舌時，更會感覺如此。

The two gilded ages are creating intense political and social pressures, partly because change is always hard, and partly because the rewards of this sort of convulsive shift are so unequal. Moreover, the world no longer has the escape valve that, at least for a time, released some of the pressures of the Industrial Revolution: Europe’s huddled masses could emigrate to the New World. Even with that option, it is worth remembering, the conflicts and inequities created by industrialization and urbanization were ultimately resolved in the West only after a half century of revolution and war.
兩種鍍金年代正在造就一股緊張的政治與社會壓力，部分原因是變動總會帶來痛苦，部分原因則為這種驟發的變動所帶來的報酬分配很不平等。此外，如今已不再有工業革命時代至少還出現過一次的釋壓安全閥：當時歐洲牛衣對泣的民眾還能夠移民到新世界去。即使現在還能有這種選擇，我們仍須記住，工業化與都市化產生的衝突與不平等，西方世界也只有在經歷半個世紀的革命與戰爭之後才終獲解決。

“Eventually, humanity will prosper,” said John van Reenan, head of the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. “Capitalism does work, but over the medium term, 30 or 40 years, there could be incredible dislocations.”
倫敦經濟學院經濟績效中心主任范瑞南說：「到最後，人道精神終將昌盛。資本主義的確管用；但就30年或40年的中期而言，仍可能發生驚人的錯亂現象。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/business/global/wrenching-the-globe-into-a-new-economic-orbit.html

2012-02-21聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 任中原譯 原文參見紐時週報七版上