KABUL, Afghanistan – The anticipated withdrawal of most international forces is still two years away, but already Afghans who have depended on the decade-old foreign presence for their livelihoods are feeling tremors as the first troops leave and spending and aid money dries up.
大多數國際部隊撤離阿富汗，預計是兩年之後的事，然而在第一批部隊開始撤離，外國部隊的開支與援助隨之逐漸枯竭之際，十年來因為外國部隊駐在而得以養家活口的阿富汗人，卻已經開始擔心了。

The withdrawal of tens of thousands of troops and aid workers – and the billions of dollars in aid they have brought to the country – has the potential to undo the fragile progress Afghans have made and, some fear, even set off a new round of insecurity and civil unrest. In 2010, international assistance amounted to roughly 97 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to a World Bank estimate.
數萬名外國部隊與援助人員，以及他們帶來的巨額援助同時撤離，可能使阿富汗人取得的進展化為烏有，有些人甚至擔心觸發另一波安全失序與社會動盪。世界銀行估計，2010年國際援助約占阿富汗國內生產毛額的97%。

That foreign money, and the end of the Taliban government, lured back Afghan refugees and moneyed entrepreneurs alike, and it has lifted important parts of the economy to unnatural highs.
龐大外援與神學士政權垮台曾經吸引阿富汗難民及有錢的企業家返國，使阿富汗經濟一些重要區塊出現不自然的高成長。

Already real estate prices, salaries, store sales and factory orders are shrinking.
房地產行情、薪資、店鋪銷售額與工廠訂單已經開始萎縮。

At the Milli Factory, 150 workers making about $240 a month, a good salary here, turned out 3,000 boots a day for the Afghan forces. But even those orders, paid for by the coalition, have stopped. Farhad Safi, the chief executive, said the government is buying Chinese and Pakistani boots that cost 15 percent less and aren’t as good.
密里工廠雇用150名工人，月薪約240美元，在喀布爾屬於不錯的收入，從前每天為阿富汗政府軍生產約3000雙軍靴，由聯軍付款，現在訂單停了。工廠執行長沙菲說，阿富汗政府改向中國大陸與巴基斯坦訂購，便宜15%，但品質較差。

About $54 billion in aid and military spending generated thousands of jobs for Afghans. It also produced a new elite.
總額約540億美元的援助與軍事開支曾經為阿富汗人民創造成千上萬的就業機會，同時造就新興的精英階級。

A typical house normally costs $30,000 to $230,000 depending on size and location, but deals dried up and prices dropped by $10,000 to $50,000 last year as people worried about the pullout.
按坪數與位置不同，一棟典型的喀布爾房子售價通常在3萬到23萬美元之間，然而買賣已經停滯，去年房價因人們擔心國際部隊撤離的影響而下降1萬到5萬美元。

Miraj Din, 48, who used to deliver food and firewood in a wheelbarrow, now sells imported cars to the country’s elite.
48歲的丁恩曾經以手推車為顧客運送食物與柴火，現在改向阿富汗精英階級銷售進口汽車。

Last year, he sold about a dozen cars a month, but this year he is selling only one a month.
去年，他每個月大約賣12輛，今年每個月只能賣1輛。

“Now people think the 1980s and 1990s crisis will start again and people will fight,” he said.
他說：「現在人們認為1980、90年代的危機會重現，內戰會再起。」

Total output for the Afghan economy, adjusted for inflation, has roughly doubled over the past nine years. But by 2018, 90 percent of all that outside aid could be gone, the World Bank predicts.
隨通膨調整後的阿富汗經濟總產值，九年來約提高了1倍。世銀預估，至2018年多達90%的外援可能消失。

Optimists hope that Afghanistan’s decade-long progress will help it weather this decline – and that capital investments in infrastructure could be a catalyst for private-sector enterprise.
比較樂觀的人認為，阿富汗應可靠10年來取得的進展撐起外援枯竭的新局，基礎建設的資本投資或許會使民間企業興起。

But this rural country of 30 million people, where life expectancy is only about 45 years and infant mortality is among the highest in the world, will have to adjust.
然而，這個總人口3000萬，平均壽命約僅45歲，嬰兒夭折率堪稱舉世之冠的農業國家，必須設法適應新局面。

With little export growth and large-scale manufacturing, some officials hope a renaissance in agriculture and regional trade.
在出口成長與大型製造業微不足道的情況下，有些官員希望農業與區域貿易能夠復興。

The World Bank forecasts that growth could fall to 5 or 6 percent for the next few years. But the slowdown could be more severe if security worsens or if the government fails to garner royalties from contracts for the country’s mineral wealth, including big copper, iron and other deposits.
世銀預估未來數年阿富汗經濟成長率可能降至5%或6%，如果治安惡化或阿富汗政府無法針對阿富汗的礦藏，包括豐富的銅、鐵及其他天然資源徵收開採權利金，成長減緩可能更嚴重。

One barometer of economic confidence might be Mohammad Atta’s store on what Westerners call “