SINGAPORE – The skyscrapers and immaculate beaches of this seaport look out on one of the world’s largest parking lots: kilometer after kilometer of empty cargo ships, as far as the eye can see, their owners from all over the world reluctant to accept delivery during one of the worst markets ever for the global shipping industry.
從新加坡的摩天大樓與潔淨的海灘向外海極目望去，可見舉世最大的停車場之一：綿延不絕的閒置貨輪。目前全球航運業市場景氣之糟歷來少見，全球各地的船東不願在這時候接受這些新船。

Two months ago large freighters were fetching charter rates of $15,000 a day. Now, brokers and owners say, the going rate is $6,000 a day.
兩個月前，大型貨輪還可以收取一天1萬5000美元的包租費。經紀商與船東指出，如今已銳減至6000美元。

Although the fault lies partly with doldrums in the global economy, the bigger factor is a glut of new freighters. The oversupply is putting financial pressure on the shipowners that bought them and the already struggling European banks that financed many of the purchases.
全球經濟衰退固然是原因，更重要的原因則是新建貨輪供過於求。當初添購貨輪的船東，以及為許多貨輪採購案提供融資、如今正掙扎求生的歐洲銀行，也因而承受沉重的財務壓力。

Back during the global commodity boom, which continued through the spring of 2008, the world’s shipowners could hardly place orders for freighters fast enough. But because of the long lead times in shipbuilding, those vessels only now are being delivered by the hundreds – into a very different, much less robust international economy.
在截至2008年春季為止的全球商品交易繁榮期，全球各地的船東爭先恐後訂製貨輪。然而由於訂製與交船之間的等候期很長，這些貨輪直到現在才開始數以百計的交船，投入一個已經迥異於以往，疲弱許多的國際經濟體系。

For the shipping industry, the glut means not only lower charter fares, but also steep declines in the value of their vessels. The bigger losers could be some big European banks, many of which are already struggling with big losses on their holdings of government bonds from Greece, Italy and other heavily indebted European nations.
對航運業而言，貨輪過多不只意味包租費減少，還有貨輪價值銳減的問題。比較大的輸家可能是一些大型歐洲銀行。其中許多銀行已經因為持有希臘、義大利與其他高負債歐洲國家的債券而蒙受巨額虧損。

Commerzbank in Germany, the Lloyds Banking Group in Britain and Société Générale in France are among European institutions that are reducing their exposure to shipping loans.
歐洲的銀行紛紛減少航運貸款曝險部位，包括德國商業銀行集團、英國駿懋銀行集團與法國興業銀行。

Basil Karatzas, the chief executive of Karatzas Marine Advisors, a ship brokerage in Manhattan, estimated that European banks hold about $500 billion in shipping loans and face nearly $100 billion in losses.
紐約曼哈坦航運經紀商「卡拉查斯海運顧問公司」執行長卡拉查斯估計，歐洲各銀行共貸出約5000億美元航運貸款，面對近1000億美元的虧損。

The banks’ “biggest concern is what is the write-off, and how do you treat it from an accounting point of view,” Mr. Karatzas said.
卡拉查斯表示，銀行最擔心的是「那些錢應列為呆帳，在會計上又該如何處理這些呆帳」。

Shipowners, meantime, are nervously monitoring an industry benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index of bulk freighter charter rates, which has lost more than half its value since the start of the year.
另一方面，船東正密切注意業界指標「波羅的海散裝運價指數」的變化。今年以來它的數值已縮水一半以上。

The index is now at its lowest level since January 2009, during the depths of the economic downturn.
該指數目前已經跌至2009年1月以來的最低點。當時是全球經濟衰退最嚴重的時期。

And as charter rates plummet, so do prices of the vessels themselves. A large tanker that sold for $137 million in early 2008, the Samho Dream, was repossessed by bankers late last year and sold last week in Hong Kong for just $28.3 million.
包租費大減，貨輪本身的價值亦然。2008年初，30萬噸級的南韓「三湖夢想號」大型油輪以1億3700萬美元交船，銀行團去年底把它收回，上個月在香港以2830萬美元的低價脫手。

The world’s tonnage of large freighters is climbing by more than 10 percent a year, with 1,650 large freighters for bulk commodities expected to emerge from shipyards this year alone.
全球大型貨輪的總噸數平均每年以超過10%的幅度增加，預估單單今年就會有1650艘大型散裝貨輪交船。

As long as the shipped tonnage of world trade is creeping up at an annual rate of only 2 to 3 percent a year, the oversupply can only grow more burdensome for the seaborne freight industry.
只要全球貿易的海運總噸數年增幅度仍然只有2%到3%，貨輪過多就會對海運業形成更沉重的負擔。

Buyers who might be tempted to refuse delivery of vessels can lose their deposits, which are typically up to 40 percent of the contract price of the ship. But it is getting harder to borrow money from struggling banks to pay for the remaining 60 percent – particularly with resale values now much lower than the prices at which contracts were signed four or five years ago.
船東訂製貨輪所付訂金通常是議定價格的40%，如果考量現實而不肯接船，訂金可能不保。另一方面，船東也越來越難向自顧不暇的銀行申貸剩下的60%款項，特別是在轉手價格已遠低於4、5年前簽約價的現況下。

One big question is whether the plunge in freight rates might also signal further trouble in the global economy. World oil demand has been fairly flat lately because of weak economic growth, so there has been limited need for more tankers to haul oil.
一大癥結在於，海運費率大降是否同時意味全球經濟可能繼續出現問題。全球原油需求近來因經濟成長疲弱而未見增加，對更多油輪的需求相當有限。

The biggest market for bulk carriers lies in carrying iron ore to China’s voracious steel mills. But with a real estate slowdown in China undermining demand for steel, the annual growth rate of Chinese iron ore imports has abruptly slowed since October.
散裝貨輪的最大市場在於把鐵砂運給胃納無窮的中國大陸煉鋼廠。不過中國大陸房地產市場最近降溫，鋼材需求隨之減少，去年10月開始，中國大陸的鐵砂進口年增率已經大幅降低。

Bad weather lately off Australia and Brazil, the two countries where bulk freighters are most likely to take on iron ore and other cargo, has also made companies leery of chartering vessels and risk waiting for days for ports to reopen after storms.
澳洲與巴西是散裝貨輪最可能前往裝載鐵砂與其他貨物的國家，兩國外海最近天候惡劣。這導致許多企業不敢貿然包租貨輪，以免必須費時多日枯等港口在暴風雨後重新開放。

Further confusing the picture is that the cost to ship a container from China to the United States or Europe actually jumped in the first two weeks of this year. But container rates temporarily surge every year for the last sailings before the Chinese New Year.
讓局面更複雜的是，今年最初兩個星期，一只貨櫃自中國大陸運往美國或歐洲的運費竟還大漲。然而每年中國農曆新年之前的最後幾趟貨櫃運費都會暫時性大漲。

Even if world trade does not slow in the coming months, the shipping industry still has a long way to go before cargo demand can possibly catch up to capacity. Meantime, bulk freighters, tankers and refrigerator ships by the hundreds may continue to bob idly in the waves here.
即使全球貿易未於往後幾個月減緩，在貨物需求跟得上貨運容量之前，航運業仍得面對漫漫長夜。另一方面，數以百計的散裝貨輪、油輪及冷藏船可能還得繼續在新加坡外海閒置擺盪。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/business/global/the-global-downturn-weighs-on-shipowners-and-european-banks.html

2012-02-14聯合報/G5版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 陳世欽譯 原文參見紐時週報七版上