FRANKFURT — Surveys of industrial managers released Tuesday showed that growth could be slowing in China and Germany, raising questions about whether two of the world’s most dynamic economies could continue to underpin global output and compensate for weakness in the United States and the rest of Europe.
The data do not yet point to a recession in the fragile euro zone, economists said, and indicate only a moderate cooling of torrid Chinese growth. And several analysts noted that the economic indicators were actually less negative than many had expected. Nonetheless, it has become increasingly clear that Europe cannot expect to grow its way out of the sovereign debt crisis, which has become a weight on the world economy.
“A return to recession is possible,” Marie Diron, an economist who advises the consulting firm Ernst & Young, wrote in a note, referring to the European data. “This is bad news for governments’ ability to rein in public deficits.”
Germany has Europe’s most powerful economy, and has been helping the euro zone to grow despite the burden caused by excessive debt in countries like Greece and Italy. China is a crucial market for German machinery and cars, so a slowdown there will also be felt in Europe.
While not expecting a recession, Violante Di Canossa, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a note that the data “remains consistent with sluggish growth.” She said that the industrial survey for Europe pointed to a slowdown similar to the one in 2003, when there were several quarters of minimal economic improvement, rather than a sharp downturn.
A survey of manufacturers in China showed Tuesday that factory activity had probably contracted slightly in August, as concerns mounted that the country’s exports might decline because of high debts and slowing economies in Europe and the United States. The findings underpin the widely held perception that the giant Chinese economy is growing at a more moderate, yet still robust, pace.
The findings of the poll of Chinese purchasing managers, published by HSBC and with a final figure due next week, showed a reading of 49.8 for August, a touch below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, as Beijing’s efforts to cool down the pace of growth began to bear fruit.
For the past year and a half, Chinese policy makers have been working to rein in booming growth and the sharp price rises that have accompanied it. Formerly free-flowing bank credit has become harder to obtain, for example, as banks have been instructed to lend less.
Despite being below 50 for the second consecutive month, the HSBC index indicated that China’s economy remained on a firm footing. The August reading was an improvement from the 49.3 recorded in July, while a subindex measuring new export orders rose to a three-month high.
The data suggest that China will not suffer a hard landing akin to the sharp slowdown seen in late 2008, Qu Hongbin, a China economist at HSBC, wrote in a note Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a survey of purchasing managers’ expectations for output in the euro zone was unchanged at a nearly two-year low, according to preliminary estimates, but was not as bad as analysts had expected.
A separate poll of economists also showed a sharp deterioration in expectations for the euro zone and Germany.
Official statistics last week showed that growth in the second quarter came nearly to a standstill in the euro zone as well as in Germany and France, the region’s two largest economies.
Fear that Europe is headed for another slowdown, which would compound the sovereign debt crisis, was responsible for driving down stock markets last week. On Tuesday, by contrast, many of Europe’s main stock indexes gained for a second straight day.
A preliminary reading of the euro zone P.M.I. composite output index, compiled by Markit, an information provider in London, was unchanged from July at 51.1. The euro zone manufacturing P.M.I., a gauge of the mood among manufacturers, fell to 49.7 from 50.4 in July, a 23-month low. A reading below 50 suggests that the economy is stalling.
“This drop does not compare with the collapse seen in late 2008 after the failure of Lehman Brothers,” Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank, wrote in a note. “Nevertheless, the purchasing managers’ index does confirm that the euro zone economy is hardly growing now.”
Ms. Diron of Ernst & Young said the slowing growth exposed how vulnerable Europe and especially Germany were to foreign markets.
The survey “suggests that core Eurozone countries are still very dependent on demand from the rest of the world,” Ms. Diron wrote. “At a time when the outlook for the U.S. economy is darkening and emerging markets are slowing, such a dependence on the external environment is a source of weakness.”
Concerns about slowing growth in the United States and Europe, both important markets for goods made in China, have clouded the outlook for Chinese exporters.
Rising wages across the country have also added to manufacturing costs, eroding some of the competitive advantage that China has long had over manufacturers in other parts of the world.
“Debt crises in developed countries are bringing rising pressure and challenges to the vast emerging market countries, including China,” Jiang Yaoping, the Chinese deputy commerce minister, said in a statement Tuesday.
Mr. Qu of HSBC, however, emphasized that the drag on overall growth would probably be limited, given that China’s growth was increasingly driven by domestic demand.
“We are still expecting the economy to grow by around 9 percent for the year as a whole, despite Beijing’s ongoing credit tightening at home and turmoil in markets overseas,” Mr. Qu wrote Tuesday.
One consolation from the data is that they point to easing inflationary pressure at the same time that oil prices are declining. If inflation is less of a worry, the European Central Bank will not feel as compelled to continue raising official interest rates. In addition, the E.C.B. may find it easier to sustain measures intended to support weaker banks and hold down borrowing costs for countries like Spain and Italy.
Separately, the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment, a survey of analysts by the Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany, also showed a sharp drop in expectations for growth in the euro zone and Germany.
“The fear of a recession in the United States together with the downgrade of the credit rating of U.S. bonds has further increased macroeconomic uncertainty,” the center said in a statement.
The German central bank argued Monday that much of the recent deceleration in Germany and Europe was due to exceptional factors, like the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that temporarily disrupted supplies of auto parts. The central bank said in its monthly bulletin that, although growth is clearly slowing, there was no evidence of a recession ahead.
“All in all there are still many signs that the global recovery is intact and that growth in the coming year will be robust,” the central bank said.
The data were released as investors remained skeptical whether European government leaders had a handle on the debt crisis.
The finance ministers from France and Germany, François Baroin and Wolfgang Schäuble, met Tuesday in Paris to work out details of a European tax on financial transactions. The tax reflects the leaders’ determination to make banks share the cost of the debt crisis, but may be ill timed given that investors worry another financial crisis is in the making.
Money market indicators show that banks are reluctant to lend to each other, because they fear for each others’ solvency.
中德PMI示警 全球剉咧等？
成長恐趨緩 專家憂難再扮動力火車頭
最新公布的採購經理人指數顯示，中國和德國的成長可能趨緩，令人擔心這兩個全球活力最強的經濟體可能無法繼續支撐全球生產、抵銷美國和歐洲其他國家衰弱的影響。
紐約時報報導，經濟學家表示，目前的數據並未指向歐元區衰退，而中國的成長僅可能小幅趨緩，而且實際數據事實上並不如分析師所預期的那麼糟。但另一方面，歐洲顯然也無法靠經濟成長來擺脫主權債務危機。
安永會計師事務所顧問瑪麗‧迪倫指出，歐洲數據顯示「衰退不無可能」。德國是歐洲經濟龍頭，雖然受到希臘、義大利的拖累，仍能帶動歐元區成長。
瑞士信貸分析師狄卡諾薩雖然不預期歐洲會陷入衰退，但也認為成長「腳步遲滯」，類似2003年的情況，也就是說不會一次暴跌，而是連續數季成長趨近於零。
匯豐(HSBC)昨天公布的匯豐中國製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)預覽顯示，8月份匯豐中國PMI初值為49.8，低於代表景氣擴張的50。
但匯豐數據雖然低於50，中國經濟仍然穩定，8月份中國製造業活動已暫緩前三個月連續惡化的走勢，比上月終值49.3 小幅反彈。匯豐認為，中國不至於像2008年般硬著陸。
而中國是德國機具和汽車的重要市場，所以中國成長減緩也會影響歐洲。
同時，採購經理人對歐元區的生產預測初值則維持不變，雖然趨近兩年低點，但不如分析師預測的糟糕。
根據Markit Economics公布的最新數據，歐元區8月份PMI 跌到51.5，是2009年9月來最低，但仍維持在50以上，且優於市場預期的50.9。
原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/24/business/global/surveys-show-growth-in-europe-is-nearly-at-standstill.html
2011-08-24/聯合晚報/B6版/國際財經 編譯朱小明
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