西方戰略觀察家認定中國將建造10萬噸級核動力航母?

 China may be building first indigenous carrier?

2016年伊始,眼前中國第一艘自製常規動力航空母艦,即將竣工建設完成,西方軍事觀察家認為,中國將在2016年第3季之始,開始下水試航,新的航空母艦,並且列裝各式各樣的戰鬥武器系統,通訊系統,並且將新造J-15B戰鬥機,以及預警機,救援直昇機等飛機,陸續交付該新的航空母艦試飛,以適應新的航空母艦性能,這樣繁瑣復雜的訓練試航,至少歷經1年,也就是說要到2017年,第4季初,這艘新航空母艦才可正式交付海軍使用,

西方戰略觀察家認為中國籌劃準備已久,下一階段就會即將開始建造核動力航空母艦,這是繼美國,法國,以來全世界第3個國家,有完整的建造供應鏈,建造國核動力航空母艦,因為中國自製091漢級核子潛艦已將近服役20年,而新型095型唐級核子潛艦,正式建造完成試航中,這給予中國海軍極度的信心與毅力,決定自行生產製造中國的核動力航空母艦,西方軍事觀察家分析出,中國自製核動力航空母艦,極為可能於今年夏季末開始動工,中國將以5年左右的時間,自行施工建造,預計2021第3季完成,2022年試航完成,2023年交付海軍使用,屆時亞太地區的戰略情勢將澈底改變,尤其是東海,南海的戰略情勢,甚至於太平洋第一島鏈可以說是完全由中國主導控制?

西方軍事觀察家咸信中國海軍一旦有了核動力的航母，除了續航能力可以持續幾20年以外，還可能解決中國艦載機的電磁彈射、先進電子設備持續用電等多個問題。目前中國官方公佈的小型核反應爐的項目，包括戰略核潛艇上的核反應爐，正是中國航母最好的動力系統，中國如果執行研製成功8-10萬噸級核動力航母后，將使中國躋身全球航母的一流的水準。

為了實現中國海軍的遠洋作戰的能力，中國一定要搞出核動力的航空母艦。如果中國海軍擁有了核動力的航空母艦，除了可以解決航程不足的問題。核動力航空母艦擁有常規航空母艦無法比擬的航程的優越性，一般30年內不用更換核燃料。除了可以長期地、持續地遠航以外，強大的功率還可以讓中國核動力航空母艦用上電磁彈射器、相控陣雷達等多種的電量極高的裝備，加強中國海軍的海上作戰升空和對地空襲能力。

目前全世界只有美國、法國可以自行製造自己的核動力航母。中國海軍雖然已經擁有了核潛艇的技術，不過操作航母的經驗才剛剛起步。西方戰略觀察家認為中國國產核動力航母的建造不是一蹴而就的，需要一個建造週期。航空母艦本身並不能形成有效的戰鬥力，除建造航空母艦外，還要有艦載機、護航艦隊，這樣才能形成戰鬥力。目前真正擁有可以作戰的核動力航母仍然需要20年以上的時間。西方軍事戰略分析認為未來中國海軍需要至少6個航空母艦戰鬥群,才有戰鬥力：3艘執行作戰任務，1艘進行訓練，1艘在後方維修。這樣一來戰備輪班的正常機制才得以正式顯示出航空母艦大國的需求?

而中國的核動力航母如果建造出來作戰能力遠超亞洲各國：中國一艘10萬噸級航母，對於目前的中國來說，全新設計建造一艘航核動力母，其進行試驗、訓練的週期相對較長。首艘國產核航母顯然會遵循中國海軍小步快跑發展風格。事實上打中國打算建造核動力航母時候，核航母的建設就已經成為定局：只有擁有真正的核動力的航空母艦之後，中國海軍才真正具備戰略核威懾力，和全球核威懾和打擊能力。

• An unidentified hull in an advanced state of construction at Dalian shipyard could be China's first indigenous aircraft carrier
• While a conclusive identification of the hull as an aircraft carrier cannot be made until work is observed on the upper decks and potential flight deck, the slow pace of assembly and outline suggests a military hull under construction

Satellite imagery suggests that China may be building its first aircraft carrier at Dalian shipyard in northern China.

Aircraft Carrier Project Phase 2 - New Construction,Beijing will build two more aircraft carriers.

China is designing and building its second aircraft carrier "completely on its own" in Dalian in northeastern Liaoning Province, a Defense Ministry spokesperson confirmed 31 December 2015. This carrier, with a displacement of 50,000 tonnes, will be a base for J-15 fighters and other types of aircraft, Yang Yujun told a monthly press briefing. Fixed-wing aircraft on the carrier will use a ski-jump to take off, he said. The design and building of this second aircraft carrier has been based on experience, research and training on the first carrier, the Liaoning, he added.

It is not clear whether the "50,000 tonnes" displacement is light or loaded. If the former, it implies a ship somewhat larger than the 42,000 ton French Charles de Gaulle, which is 858 feet long. If the stated displacement is the light displacement, a common practice among Asian navies, then the new Chinese carrier would be slightly smaller than the old American CV-59 Forrestal class, which was 56,000 tons light and 79,300 tons full loaded. The length of the Forrestal units ranged from 1,063 feet to 1,086 feet.

 The PLA Navy would need to overcome several large obstacles before it could field an operational aircraft carrier and associated supporting ships. First, the PLA Navy did not initially have any carrier-capable aircraft. Second, although substantially improved in these areas, it still needed more and better anti-submarine and anti-aircraft capabilities to protect a carrier and its supporting vessels. Finally, to have adequate power projection capabilities from the use of a carrier, it was preferable to have more than one carrier so that a carrier was assuming the mission at sea at all times. Thus, many experts concluded that an operational aircraft carrier would not appear to be in China's near future, even though China was funding research and development and training officers in aircraft carrier operations.

CV Conjectural Designs