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以色列的「社會和政治」形勢 -- Paul Nuki
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以色列國會選舉結果揭曉前夕，不妨花個20分鐘了解一下：「世界末日引爆點」之一的內部「社會和政治」形勢。
Rise of Israel’s ‘saviour general’ exposes its racial divide
Gadi Eisenkot could become the first Mizrahi PM, ending decades of Ashkenazi political dominance
Paul Nuki, 10/26/26
If Benjamin Netanyahu loses office on Tuesday, the world will focus on the downfall of the most controversial prime minister in Israel's history.
Within the country, though, it could mark a much more fundamental social shift: the end of political dominance of the country's Ashkenazi establishment, which traces its roots to central Europe.
If the polls are correct, Gadi Eisenkot – a Mizrahi Jew of Moroccan heritage and former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) general – could become the first non-Ashkenazi prime minister of Israel.
Experts say it would mark an important symbolic moment for a group that, for decades, has faced discrimination, but gradually risen to dominate the country demographically.
The story of the rise of the Mizrahi – Israeli Jews who trace their heritage to the Middle East, North Africa and Asia – has not been an easy one, and racism still persists.
Two weeks ago, Yinon Magal, a prominent Right-wing TV host, caused a political firestorm by describing Mr. Eisenkot as a "monkey" who was being secretly managed by liberal "Ashkenazi elites".
He said: "He's a monkey! He's a monkey! ... They took a Mizrahi-Moroccan ... It's like we can't see reality. The emperor has no clothes."
In another alleged example of racism, Sara Netanyahu, Mr Netanyahu's wife, has been sued for allegedly calling a member of her household staff an "undeveloped Moroccan", which she denies.
Before Israel's founding in 1948, Mizrahi communities flourished in cities across the Middle East and North Africa, including Baghdad, Casablanca and Tehran. But amidst state-sanctioned persecution across Arab and Muslim countries, more than 850,000 Jews were expelled or forced to flee.
Almost 600,000 arrived in Israel from 1948 to 1972, most of them destitute, according to the American Jewish Committee and Encyclopaedia Britannica. On arrival, they faced severe societal and institutional discrimination from the ruling Ashkenazi establishment.
Many were funnelled into ma'abarot – overcrowded camps lacking basic amenities – and pressured to abandon their traditional Arabic dialects, culture and religious practices in favour of a Westernised ideal.
When the camps were closed, Mizrahi families were redirected to development towns along Israel's volatile periphery or impoverished urban slums.
This social friction permanently transformed Israeli politics. In 1959, riots broke out in Haifa, where North African immigrants protested against police brutality and neglect. By 1971, second-generation Mizrahi youths in Jerusalem's Musrara neighbourhood had formed the Israeli Black Panthers.
Taking inspiration from the US civil rights struggle, they demanded fair housing, educational funding, and an end to the paternalism of the then-dominant Israeli Labor party.
It was Mizrahi voters that helped propel Menachem Begin's Right-wing Likud party to power in 1977 – and they have been a force to be reckoned with ever since.
For Mr Netanyahu, the Mizrahi working classes have provided political rocket fuel for more than 20 years. Opponents have sarcastically described him as the "Ashkenazi Messiah" of the Mizrahi Right. ( “Right” 此處為「權利」，非「右派」。)
Sir Max Hastings, the historian and former editor of The Telegraph, described in his memoirs a conversation with Mr Netanyahu in the 1970s that captured his approach.
He wrote: "He joked about the Golani Brigade, the Israeli infantry force in which so many men were North African or Yemenite Jews. 'They're ok as long as they're led by white officers.' He grinned."
Mr Netanyahu denied the story, but his command of the Mizrahi electorate may be coming to an end.
Despite ongoing struggles for full economic parity, Mizrahi Jews have become a central driving force of Israel's demographic, cultural, and political reality. Mizrahi figures have climbed to the top of many institutions – but not yet become prime minister.
Momi Dahan, an academic at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said ethnicity was no longer a predictor of voting patterns.
He said: "The differences between the two groups is not a big one today. Once you account for differences in income and other things, the difference in voting patterns disappears completely.
"As in other countries, including the UK, the main predictor is education. There is still a gap in educational attainment between Mizrahi and Ashkenazi groups in Israel, but it is not so great today."
Mr Eisenkot is, in many ways, a prime example. A foot soldier in the Golani Brigade at about the time Mr Netanyahu and Sir Max met for dinner, he rose to become head of the elite unit before becoming head of the IDF from 2015 to 2019.
Polls predict his recently formed centrist party Yashar! (meaning "straight" or "honest") will emerge as the biggest single party in the next parliament.
Yashar! sits in an anti-Netanyahu bloc with three other Jewish parties. And although they are not expected to win the 61 seats needed to form a simple majority government, polls suggest they will beat Mr Netanyahu's bloc, giving them a strong chance of forming a minority government.
Manuel Trajtenberg, a senior Israeli economist and friend of Mr Eisenkot, said that if the former general became prime minister it would be a "source of pride for some Mizrahi voters", but their support was not automatic.
"Is it going to change the perceptions of the Mizrahi in Israel? For some, yes, but for others it's going to take time. For many, Likud has been their party for generations," he said.
Dahlia Scheindlin, an American-Israeli pollster, also warned against assuming traditional Mizrahi voters would view Mr Eisenkot as a replacement for Mr Netanyahu.
She cited Amir Peretz's leadership of Labor in 2006 as a cautionary example: excitement about his Moroccan background did not, in the end, reverse the party's decline. She added that a candidate's ethnicity alone would not outweigh ideology, historic grievances, and party identification.
On the other hand, Ms Scheindlin said that some polling data suggest turnout may be better for the opposition. There was a "four to five-point gap in self-reported turnout", which suggested supporters of the governing coalition may be "less afraid if the other side wins".
She added: "I don't know, but I feel like maybe they're not entirely sorry if Netanyahu goes."
At the Mahane Yehuda Market in Jerusalem, long a stronghold of the Mizrahi Right, there was some evidence of this on Sunday. The owners of several businesses said they were supporting the opposition, but did not want to go on the record for fear of upsetting their customers or landlords.
Others said they were voting for smaller Zionist parties, including the Reservists, a Right-wing party that has not ruled out aligning with Mr Eisenkot's anti-Netanyahu camp.
Safo, a 31-year-old Mizrahi immigrant from Ethiopia, said Mr Eisenkot could be "trusted on security" and that he was going to vote for the Reservists with the economy and national unity in mind.
He said: "Now everyone will take care of security. We need someone who will stop the fighting and take care of the people and the money."
Others said they would be voting for parties on the hard-Right instead of Likud. Boaz, 65, said he liked Mr Eisenkot "as a man" but saw him as part of the "garbage Left" and would not vote for him.
Shalev, a 20-year-old first-time Mizrahi voter, said he would be voting for Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of national security and leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party.
"For me, they protect us much more than the army. The army is under the government. They [Otzma Yehudit] do what they think – like the terrorists."
Edan, a stallholder selling spices, described Mr Netanyahu as a "lame horse" and said he would be voting for the Reservists because he wanted "no wars and no mess".
He said: "Bibi is going home. We need something new, something fresh."
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Netanyahu survives another day with unexpectedly clear backing of Israeli Jews
Steven Scheer/Rami Ayyub/Lina Obeid, 10/28/26
JERUSALEM, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Benjamin Netanyahu won the support of an unexpectedly clear majority of Israeli Jews in an election billed as a major turning point in his nation's history, apparently ensuring he will survive as prime minister at least in a caretaker role.
With nearly 86% of votes tallied on Wednesday morning, Israel's three main broadcasters reported Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties on course to win 53 seats in parliament, well ahead of the 48 for the opposition bloc of rival Gadi Eisenkot.
Parties representing Israelis of Arab descent would win an unprecedented 19 seats, following high turnout from passionately motivated voters.
The results could still change as counting continued, but a victory for Eisenkot appeared increasingly out of reach, as his bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties from centre-left to hard-right underperformed pre-election polls that forecast a tight race.
While Netanyahu lost his bloc's narrow majority in the 120-seat Knesset, his opponents were left with scant hope of unseating him without an unlikely deal to accept broad backing from Arab parties, which many Jewish leaders reject.
Even then, he would remain as caretaker during any coalition negotiations, or until a new election next year.
SECURITY FIGHT SHARPENS
Netanyahu, addressing his Likud party's faithful after 3 a.m. (0100 GMT) at the party's election headquarters in Jerusalem, called for the formation of "a strong, right-wing national government".
He also highlighted Israel's military successes and raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran alongside his ally, US President Donald Trump.
"Israel faces a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all. But ulterior motives must not divert us from this sacred mission," he said.
Trump, who had called on Israeli voters to keep Netanyahu in power so the two leaders could "finish the job" in Iran, said Netanyahu had done "very well" thanks to his own endorsement that "helped him a lot".
"It might be winning or tie. The tie is sort of considered a win in that case because it's a big chess match," Trump said early on Wednesday at a campaign stop in Texas.
The likelihood of a caretaker government with no parliamentary majority weighed on Israel's financial markets. The shekel currency weakened around 1.6% to 3.10 to the US dollar. Tel Aviv's key benchmark stock indexes fell more than 3%.
EISENKOT CALLS ON SECURITY CHIEFS TO RESIST PRESSURE
Eisenkot acknowledged that Netanyahu was still in office as a caretaker, but said the prime minister had lost public support and urged him to retire from politics. He also issued a warning that Netanyahu might use security for political ends.
"I call on the heads of the security establishment and the civil service: Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people's trust," he said.
"Remember that you serve only the state and the interests of Israel's citizens. Stand firm in the face of any attempt to challenge you," he said. "Netanyahu, do not dare use Israel's security for your political needs."
The election was the first held in Israel since Hamas-led fighters killed 1,200 people and carried off 251 hostages in attacks that shattered the country's sense of security and plunged it into war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
The war in Gaza, which flattened the territory and killed 74,000 Palestinians, has left Israel increasingly isolated on the world stage, with a decisive shift in global public opinion against it, including in its closest ally the United States.
Netanyahu himself is wanted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague on war crimes charges he calls absurd, and faces corruption charges in Israel that he dismisses as an establishment plot.
DECISIVE SHIFT IN ISRAELI POLITICS
The continued support for Netanyahu from most Israeli Jews was a clear sign of the decisive shift in Israeli politics that he has presided over as the dominant political figure of the era.
His brand of unapologetic Jewish nationalism, support for settlement on occupied Palestinian land and contempt for all foreign criticism is now firmly entrenched as the Israeli mainstream.
The centre-left that dominated Israel for the first half of its history and had led negotiations to disentangle Israel from the Palestinian territories has been reduced to a small fringe.
Nearly all Jewish parties now share Netanyahu's rejection of an eventual independent Palestinian state, the basis of internationally endorsed peace talks since the 1990s, when he first came to power as Israel's youngest-ever leader.
After a spell in the wilderness, he returned to power in 2009 and has remained ever since, apart from a period of 18 months when a rickety coalition of opponents managed to lever him out after four inconclusive elections in two years.
TURNING POINT
Netanyahu's supporters and opponents alike saw Tuesday's election as a decisive turning point for the nation, driving turnout to 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades.
Turnout was particularly high among Israelis of Palestinian descent, who make up more than a fifth of the population but whose representatives have historically been excluded from the cabinet. Many were motivated by what they see as open racism from Netanyahu's cabinet, which includes a party leader convicted of inciting racial hatred against Arabs.
The headquarters of the Joint List, an alliance of several Arab parties, burst into whistles and applause when exit polls were released. "We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here," said Joint List candidate Faten Gattas.
The coalition that last toppled Netanyahu relied on one small Arab party, but Eisenkot's underperformance means the opposition would now need backing from the Joint List itself, anathema to Jewish leaders since the nation's founding.
(Reporting by Steven Scheer, Rami Ayyub and Lina Obeid; Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell; Writing by Peter Graff; Editing by Alex Richardson)
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