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這篇文章相當有趣；在我看來：
1) 他的知識有一定程度的欠缺；或者說，他有某種程度的「認知偏差」，甚至「認知障礙」。
2) 他的思考能力有一定程度的侷限；或者說，他思考問題常常丟三落四，甚至前言不對後語。相當不夠「周全」；「嚴謹」則未之聞也
3) 以上兩者導致他的「結論」雖然不算荒謬，但難逃「結論不能從前提導出」的批判。
各位看官如果有美國時間，或者閒得發慌，不妨欣賞、欣賞。
Why China is Preparing for War in 2027
Why China's military and grand strategy is not what you think it's about, survival, not conquest
Jonathan Stephen Harry Riley, 10/03/25
In China, its leadership in the upper echelons is preparing for war by 2027, with China's President Xi Jinping instructing the People's Liberation Army to be ready to invade by that time.
This preparation is not just about external threats, but also about internal challenges such as maintaining the unity of the Chinese Communist Party and preventing potential fractures within the country.
This war is not about conquest, but about controlling the narrative regarding China's decline.
It is a mechanism for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which has ruled China dictatorially without free and fair elections since it seized power by winning the Chinese Civil War from 1927 to 1949.
When it comes to war, it is like humanity because war never changes.
It is humanity's oldest profession, alongside prostitution, which probably says a heck of a lot about the true nature of humanity.
We haven't changed much since we learned how to speak 50,000 years ago.
When it comes to politics, which is an innately human endeavour, no other animal species on the planet has politics.
Politics is the mechanism through which we govern our societies, choose economic models, and successfully or unsuccessfully implement military aims.
When it comes to warfare, it is politics by other means, and politics is war by other means.
This means that warfare is a logical choice when pursuing national geopolitical security interests, and it is also a rational outcome when solving political problems.
Although it's important to note that politics itself is not necessarily rational, because human beings are not inherently rational, we are innately irrational.
Politics is not about reality, but rather about the perception of reality.
We can observe this phenomenon culturally in contemporary religions, as well as in the left and right wings of Western political discourse, which claim a significant presence within the political and social contexts of the present United States of America, particularly in the so-called cultural war.
This is also reflected within Catholic religious and left-wing political traditions.
These traditions believe that the bread and wine used in communion, a spiritual practice, are the body of Jesus Christ.
As for left-wing circles, the closest equivalent would be the belief that a woman can transform themselves into a man or that a man can transform themselves into a woman.
Hopefully, this demonstrates that politics is not about reality, but rather about the perception and belief of reality.
That's why politics in general can be stressful, and why war is part of politics, and why politics is war.
As for politics, that can be war by other means because not all wars or all endeavours need to pursue violent military actions; they can be done through different mechanisms, as quoted by the Chinese general and strategist Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting".
This principle emphasises achieving victory through superior strategy, planning, and intelligence rather than direct military engagement.
That kind of strategy, which involves waging war without fighting to subdue the enemy, was exemplified by the United States of America's conflict in the mid-to-late 20th century against the Soviet Union/Russia.
The United States managed to defeat the Soviet Union not through direct military action, but by outcompeting it economically.
This was due to the superiority of a capitalist free market over a command economy, which stifled creativity and innovation, ultimately leading to stagnation.
China Dynasties Wikimedia 請至原網頁觀看中國歷朝地域圖
China's war preparations and objectives
China's military target is the independent island nation of Taiwan, which was once part of mainland China.
Taiwan broke away after the Chinese Nationalists lost the Chinese Civil War, and its official name remains the Republic of China.
In essence, the Taiwanese, who are the former rebels or enemies of the Chinese Communist Party, have a stated political objective of 'One China'.
This policy advocates for the reclamation of former territories taken by colonial powers in the 19th and 20th centuries since the CCP took power in 1949, and it is a key factor in the China-Taiwan conflict.
To understand what the One China policy is, the Great Wall of China, which was built roughly in the middle of China, where the ethnic Han Chinese mostly live, helps to represent the expansionism and imperialism of China itself.
Furthermore, China has a history spanning over 2,200 years, dating back to the Qin dynasty's unification of present-day China in 221 BC.
Throughout China's history, it has been primarily controlled and ruled by foreign conquerors, particularly those from Eurasian steppe peoples, with the Mongols being the most infamous.
For about half of that time, China was ruled by the ethnic Han Chinese.
As for now, China has been reunited, but there is a very real concern that without a One-China policy or a strong centralised government, China would fracture into a thousand petty states.
The only tangible Western equivalent of China would be if the Roman Empire had survived to this day, and the very real fear that Rome would disintegrate into smaller countries.
China has experienced numerous collapses and divisions throughout its long history, which has instilled a deep fear within the Chinese Communist Party. The CCP is determined to avoid a similar fate at all costs, even if it means waging a war with Taiwan to maintain a united China.
It's something that the Chinese Communist Party hopes to avoid at all costs. If that means a war with Taiwan to save the CCP and a united China, then so be it.
A war with Taiwan doesn't matter if the CCP is victorious.
It only matters if the CCP controls the political narrative regarding what the ethnic Han Chinese believe about politics, which is not about reality; politics is about the perception of reality, and if people believe in that truth, and that is their truth.
As for the CCP's preparations for the upcoming conflict in 2027, China's stockpile of oil can be viewed in light of its own energy insecurities and dependency on international trade, which is more critically concerning for China's geopolitical security.
China is dependent on the United States Navy for its energy security needs.
If China were to wage a war against Taiwan, China's energy and food security would be placed at risk due to sanctions from the United States and Western-aligned nations.
China's energy needs are significant, and it has only a 110-day oil consumption stockpile. By next year, it should be up to 180 days.
The Chinese leadership is also planning a deal with the Russian Federation for September 2025 to construct an oil pipeline through Mongolia into Russia, providing an alternative means of transporting oil to China that does not rely on foreign shipping.
Furthermore, the Chinese Navy only dominate the South China Sea, and the Chinese Navy can't threaten the American Navy on the high seas.
In essence, China does not possess military capabilities comparable to those of the U.S. Navy.
For the Chinese, they don't have the time due to China's internal demographic crisis caused by the Chinese One Child Policy, which was created in 1979 and discontinued in 2016 as a means for the CCP to socially engineer their own society, which has had a disastrous result.
Due to China missing between 40 million and 60 million young women and girls, and also due to the Chinese culture that favours males over females, there is a woman shortage in China.
Additionally, due to China's historically low birth rates, its population is not at the stable level of 2.1 births per woman.
It's estimated that this century, China's population will plummet from 1.4 billion towards 600 million, or even 350 million, by the start of the 22nd century.
Such a population decline will lead to a society that cannot physically function and will ultimately collapse under the demands of caring for an ageing population.
What is driving the higher human population is not the birth of babies, but the fact that people are living longer.
In the middle of the previous century, the global average life expectancy was 46 years; by the middle of the 21st century, it is estimated to be 81 years. Humanity itself is expected to peak in the 2060s, with a population between 10.3 billion and 9.6 billion, and then rapidly decline.
As for the Chinese Communist Party, for them, conquering Taiwan is not the actual objective; the objective is to control the political narrative of China's decline and not to have the Chinese people blame the CCP for their woes, but instead, the CCP want to use naked ethnonationalism to point the blame on the United States and their allies.
That kind of narrative is what the Chinese Communist Party intends to use to maintain its control of the Chinese mainland, and that is its political objective, which they intend to use and achieve through military force.
Additionally, the possibility of conflict with Taiwan could escalate into a protracted war, similar to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has been ongoing since February 2022 and has become a frozen conflict with neither side able to gain a decisive advantage over the other.
Ukrainians were first invaded by Russia in 2014.
Then they had eight years to prepare for the Russian Federation's invasion in February 2022. As for the Taiwanese, they have been preparing for an invasion by mainland China since 1949.
We can expect the Chinese to fare no better than the Russians when facing a determined and prepared enemy who has high morale, a willingness to fight, and who sees losing the conflict as a matter of existential crisis.
This presents a challenge for the Chinese and Russians, who can craft a different narrative that maintains their political establishment in power.
For the CCP, the purpose of war in 2027 is not about achieving a military victory over Taiwan, which would be of little consequence to them either way. The goal is to maintain power. CCP's main objective is not about victory; it's about control.
The CCP aims to keep its continued rule in China, although China and the Han Chinese will be significantly diminished.
What China will mean in the 21st century will be the ultimate example of the defeat being stolen from the jaws of victory, and it will serve as an example of what nations should not do in terms of trying to socially engineer their own societies, as well as the disasters that can arise from such attempts.
China could have been the new superpower of the 21st century, but all that potential has been lost due to the One-Child Policy created in 1979, which has robbed China of its future and is why China is considered a dying nation.
Written by Jonathan Stephen Harry Riley
I have been writing from 2014 to the present day; my writing is focused on history, politics, culture, geopolitics and other related topics.
Published in The Geopolitical Economist
In The Global geopolitics, truth is one, but the wise interpret it differently.— Here, we interpret these diversions
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