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處理國際事務的新角色和新規則 - 開欄文
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美國垮台前兆--Noel Johnson
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請參考：
Trump’s fury at Jerome Powell for being ‘too late’ to cut rates just got extra juice from another shocking jobs number
我回台灣定居已經32年，不能替下文作者所描寫的當下美國現實情況背書。各位請自行判斷：這位江森先生是否有「危言聳聽」之嫌？
此文可以放在本部落格多個專欄下，例如：美國123、貿易戰2025、和川普觀察：爛人爛事錄等等。由於本欄剛剛開張，需要炒炒熱度，故置於此處；如果作者所言為實，亦可明中升美降之所以然。
Signs the Collapse is Here
Noel Johnson, 09/02/25
The Point of No Return
You think you can’t find a job and that it’s your fault? Think again. It’s not so simple. There’s a much bigger puzzle at play here, and most people choose to ignore it out of fear—because the truth might be terrifying. What if the strings holding up this economy are already fraying, and we’re all standing on the edge, pretending everything is fine?
Talk to anyone right now and you’ll hear the same story: “I can’t find a job.” These aren’t lazy people. These are hard working folks just trying to do the right thing—pay their bills, feed their families, and keep their heads above water. But the reality is far more stark: this is just one symptom of a much larger collapse taking shape around us.
Nobody can afford anything anymore—except the rich. Let me give you an example. I went to get groceries the other day, like I always do on Saturdays when I’m off work. I usually spend around $200. Back then, that $200 gave me a full cart and some money left over. Now? That same $200 barely fills half a cart. I didn’t change what I buy. I didn’t splurge. I bought the exact same basics I’ve always bought. And I believe I’m not the only one noticing this—it’s happening everywhere.
But here’s the chilling part: groceries aren’t the broader problem. They’re just the daily reminder. The deeper issue is hiding in plain sight—like the spike in new homes sitting unsold. Record inventory is piling up, and nobody’s buying. Why? Because they can’t afford it. Mortgage rates are sky high and wages are stagnant. Ask yourself, when last did you get a raise?
This is the backdrop and if you zoom out, you start to see the larger picture.
This isn’t fearmongering. This is connecting the dots. The signs aren’t hidden anymore; they’re in plain sight.
The Collapsing Job Market
I see friends applying to hundreds of positions and not even getting callbacks. People are forced into gig work or part time roles with no security. Companies quietly freeze hiring while pretending everything is fine.
I believe this is the canary in the coal mine. When people can’t get decent work, everything else follows.
The human cost is brutal. I know people with college degrees working three different gig jobs just to make rent. They’re exhausted, demoralized, and watching their savings disappear. These aren’t statistics—these are your neighbors, your family members, maybe you.
And it’s getting worse. Many industries are experiencing layoffs while corporate executives pat themselves on the back for “efficiency gains.” Translation: They’re squeezing every drop of productivity out of fewer workers while millions sit on the sidelines, wondering what the hell happened to the American Dream.
Homes Nobody Can Afford
Record inventory of newly built homes piling up unsold. You think the construction boom means the economy is thriving, but I realize it’s just another bubble waiting to burst—builders keep betting on buyers who simply aren’t there.
Interest rates have priced people out of the market; monthly payments are beyond reach. Builders keep building, but buyers keep walking away. I see a dangerous disconnect: supply is there, but affordability is dead.
I drove through a brand new subdivision last week. Rows of houses with “For Sale” signs collecting dust. The grass is cut, the sidewalks are pristine, but nobody’s home. It’s weird as hell—like a movie set nobody bothered to populate.
I have a friend who works a full time job, and he is still living in his parents' basement because he can’t scrape together a down payment. That’s the reality for most people I know. The American middle class is being priced out of the most basic symbol of stability and success.
Inflation Crushing What’s Left
I don’t need a government report to tell me inflation is eating us alive. I feel it every time I swipe my card. My paycheck hasn’t changed in three years, but everything else has. My electric bill is double what it was. Gas costs more. Even the cheap stuff at the grocery store isn’t cheap anymore.
I watch people ahead of me at checkout counting out exact change or putting items back. That never used to happen. Now it’s every trip to the store. People are making hard choices just to get through the week.
The politicians keep saying things are getting better, but they’re not shopping where I shop or paying the bills I’m paying. The disconnect between official statistics and lived reality has never been wider. Politicians and economists live in a world of charts and graphs, while real people live in a world where everything costs more and nothing pays better.
This isn’t a temporary belt tightening. This is permanent degradation of living standards for anyone who isn’t wealthy enough to ride out the storm.
The Ultra Rich Are Already Running
While working families suffer, the ultra rich are diversifying like their lives depend on it. I don’t blame them. Why would you keep your nest egg in one basket when that basket can flip at any moment?
Large institutions are quietly buying up gold, commodities, and hard assets. This isn’t paranoia; it’s preparation. I believe they see the storm on the horizon and they’re already moving to higher ground.
They’re not just protecting their wealth—they’re positioning to profit from everyone else’s misery. While ordinary people lose their homes, billionaires are buying up real estate. While families struggle with grocery bills, hedge funds are investing in farmland and food production.
The wealthy understand something that working people are just starting to realize: this isn’t a recession. This is a fundamental reshaping of the economy, and they’re making sure they come out on top.
Washington’s Delusional Priorities
You know what’s really messed up? Congress spent weeks arguing about trade deals with China while my neighbor lost his house. They’re worried about economic competition with other countries when people here can’t afford rent.
It’s like watching someone rearrange deck chairs on the Titanic. They’re so focused on looking tough internationally that they’ve completely lost touch with what’s happening in their own backyard. Meanwhile, the people they’re supposed to represent are choosing between heating their homes and buying medication. The disconnect is obscene.
You want to know what’s really happening? While Congress debates trade deals and economic warfare, American families are living through their own personal economic warfare and losing. The government that should be protecting working people is instead using them as cannon fodder in a global economic battle that benefits nobody except the wealthy elites pulling the strings.
Every time there’s talk about helping regular people, suddenly there’s no money in the budget. But somehow there’s always money for defense contractors and bank bailouts. They’ll bail out banks but let your neighbor lose their home. It’s not incompetence—it’s priorities. And working people aren’t on the list.
The Broader Warning Signs
Rising corporate bankruptcies tell the story of an economy eating itself alive. I know a guy who worked at the same company for fifteen years. Good employee, never missed work. They closed his division in February with two weeks' notice. Just like that, his livelihood is gone.
I see young people with college degrees working retail jobs that don’t even require a high school diploma. They’re drowning in student loan payments while employers demand years of experience for “entry level” positions.
This isn’t some natural economic cycle. Something fundamental has shifted, and most people haven’t figured it out yet. Small businesses in my town are hanging by a thread. They are trying to stay afloat as costs rise and customers tighten their belts. Main Street is dying while Wall Street celebrates record profits. The disconnect couldn’t be more stark or more damaging.
We’re witnessing a slow tectonic shift that will define our lifeline in real time. The ladder of economic mobility that previous generations climbed is being pulled up rung by rung, leaving millions stranded at the bottom.
The Reality Check
The signs are everywhere: collapsing jobs, unsold homes, crushing inflation, and ultra rich diversifying while ordinary people drown. I hate to say it, but this economy is squeezing hardworking folks to the edge of total ruin.
I hate to break it to you but this slow bleed on the everyday working folks isn’t something we can weave our way out of. This isn’t a cycle that will turn around in a year or two. This is structural collapse disguised as normal economic fluctuation.
The human toll is devastating. Families are being torn apart by financial stress. Dreams are being deferred indefinitely. Young people are living with their parents not by choice but by necessity.
The only question left is—are we paying attention, or are we pretending it’s business as usual while the ground crumbles beneath our feet? Because ignoring it won’t make it go away. It’ll just make us less prepared for the suffering that’s already started and shows no signs of stopping.
We’re living through a economic collapse in slow motion, and most people are too busy trying to survive it to recognize it for what it is.
Times are changing; assuming that everything is as it used to be will lead to your own downfall. That’s why I created the 404 Club to give a unique perspective on things that is unbiased, deep, and contrary to everyday beliefs. Join the exclusive club; It’s where knowledge collides with tech, finance, politics, artificial intelligence, and timeless wealth strategies.
Written by Noel Johnson
I offer a unique perspective on how the richest invest, how AI reshapes markets, and how institutional flow signals the future of trading and tech.
Published in Investor’s Handbook
How to be a successful investor — investment insights, strategies, and education on stocks, ETFs, crypto, real estate, and more. Follow to join our community.
相關閱讀
Why Wall Street Hides This Secret That Should Terrify You：The boom propping up our economy could trigger the next great collapse
The 3 Mega Forces That Could Rewrite Your Wealt：Three Forces, One Opportunity
The Ultra-Rich Know What’s Coming：When the world burns a few will survive
The Inflation Supercycle：Money Dies
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國際新形勢登台亮相 -- John Rennie Short
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梭特教授大作稱得上短小精悍，深、廣度都相當有水準。開欄文列舉了和他在下文中觸及到多項議題相關的評論與本部落格專欄。
A new world order isn’t coming, it’s already here − and this is what it looks like
John Rennie Short, University of Maryland, 09/11/25
On Sept. 3, 2025, China celebrated the 80th anniversary of its victory over Japan by staging a carefully choreographed event in which 26 world leaders were offered a podium view of Beijing’s impressive military might.
The show of strength was deliberate and reignited a debate in Western media over whether we are on the cusp of a China-centric “new world order” to replace the U.S.-dominated international “rules-based order.”
But as someone who writes about geopolitics, I believe we are already there. It might be in flux, and the U.S. still has a big role in it, but a new world order has begun – and as it develops, it will look increasingly different than what it’s replacing.
A brief history of world orders
Global history can be understood as the rise and fall of different orders, defined as a given era’s dominant power relations and attendant institutions and norms.
From 1815 to 1880, the United Kingdom was the undisputed world superpower, with an empire and navy that spanned the globe. The period from 1880 to 1945 was one of imperial rivalries as other countries – largely European and the U.S. – sought to copy Britain’s success and replace its dominance. Supplanting that was the bipolar world of two competing superpowers, the Soviet Union and the U.S., marking the period from 1945 to 1991.
The fall of the Soviet Union was the beginning of a brief period, from 1991 to 2008, of a unipolar world centered on U.S. global dominance, military power and economic might. With the retreat of global communism, the U.S. increased its influence, and that of the international rules-based order it helped establish after 1945, through institutions such as the World Trade Organization, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
It did not last long in the face of a long war on terrorism, the fiasco of the invasion of Iraq, the long occupation of Afghanistan and finally the 2008 global financial crisis that undermined U.S. strength and weakened domestic support for Washington’s role as the world’s policeman.
Toward a multipolar world
In recent years, a new multipolar world has emerged with at least four distinct sources of power.
The U.S. remains central to this world order. It is blessed with a huge territory, a dynamic economy and the strategic luxury of large oceans on its east and west and much smaller powers to its north and south. The U.S. had a global military presence in the previous bipolar and unipolar order. But the cost of this imperial overstretch has prompted Washington to shift the cost burden toward its former allies, leading to a new militarization in Europe and East Asia where most countries now aim to increase military spending.
There is also a change in economic arrangements. In the unipolar order, the U.S. promoted a frictionless free trade arrangement and economic globalization. This resulted in the global shift of manufacturing that in turn created a populist backlash in those countries where manufacturing employment was hollowed out.
Now, economic nationalism is becoming a much more common refrain than free trade. Long the promoter of purportedly open markets, the U.S. is now leading the way in resurrecting tariff barriers to levels that haven’t been seen on the global stage in decades.
The military realignments and growing trade barriers will make it increasingly difficult to assemble durable alliances. In the short term the U.S. can leverage its existing power to its advantage, but over the long term other countries will likely pivot away from too much reliance on the U.S. The American Century that publishing magnate Henry Luce famously described in 1941 has to all intents and purposes come to an end.
China is now a peer competitor to the U.S. in both economic and military power. Increasingly, under the powerful leadership of Xi Jinping, China openly seeks a more Sino-centric world order with institutions and a global arrangement to match. To that end, it is assembling an axis of resistance to a U.S.-dominated world order. Russia, suffering from post-imperial syndrome, is an important member but not an equal partner.
Russian power is limited to establishing a Eurasian sphere of influence across its former Soviet republics and disrupting liberal democracies. But in that, Russia is more of a spoiler than an architect of the new order.
And then there is Europe, facing what British Prime Minister Keir Starmer referred to as a “generational challenge” as the U.S. pivots away from Europe toward the Indo-Pacific just as Russia poses a more serious threat to Europe, especially for its easternmost states.
Europe is remilitarizing after decades of demilitarizing. Sweden and Finland joined NATO in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In the coming decades, Europe could emerge as an independent source of both economic and military power with a different agenda from the U.S. – more keen to confront Russia, less willing to support Israel, and perhaps more willing to engage with China.
But all three power centers – the U.S., China and Europe – will struggle with similar and unique internal challenges.
All of them have sluggish economies and aging populations. The U.S. faces growing inequality and political instability as it shifts from a liberal democracy to competitive authoritarianism. China has an untested military, a looming demographic crisis, a faltering economy and a forthcoming succession struggle.
Finally, Europe is beset with a nationalist populism and growing social welfare costs just as military expenditures are set to increase.
The growth of the Global South
This threefold division is strangely reminiscent of the tripartite global division in George Orwell’s “1984,” where Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia fought a permanent war of shifting alliances.
But Orwell was writing at a time when much of what is now called the Global South was either under the informal or formal control of the superpowers. That is no longer the case in the Global South, especially in the case of the larger countries such as Brazil, India and Indonesia.
The Global South is not yet a coherent bloc, more an informal arrangement of independent actors that tend to hedge between the major powers.
A world in flux
Yet none of this new global reality means that things are now fixed. Indeed, the new world order is in a state of disruptive flux that promises years of growing pains. Both the U.S. and China need allies, and countries in the Global South will continue to hedge between the competing powers.
As such, the world is in for a process of constant jostling as the major powers seek alliances while dealing with domestic pressures. In that messy status quo, many questions remain:
Who will be most effective in building durable alliances?
Will China manage its internal challenges?
Will Europe get its act together?
Will Russia continue its disruptive ways?
Could a post-Trump U.S., post-Putin Russia and post-Xi China move the world in yet a different direction altogether?
And there is one large question above all others: Can the major powers manage their competition through shared global interests, such as combating climate change, environmental pollution and pandemic threats? Or will mounting conflict in the newly contested areas of the Arctic, cyberspace, outer space and the oceanic realm, and in ongoing geopolitical hot spots provide the trigger for outright conflict?
All world orders come to an end. The hope is the old one is doing so with a whimper rather than a bang.
John Rennie Short received a Fulbright Fellowship to study the geopolitics of the South China Sea
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: John Rennie Short, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Read more:
* Xi Jinping showcases his dream of a China-led ‘new world order’
* What is the rules-based order? How this global system has shifted from ‘liberal’ origins − and where it could be heading next
* Why Moldova’s election is important for the whole of Europe
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