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川普經濟學-J. Boak/C. Rugber
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Dow futures drop as recession alarm bells jolt Wall Street awake from dreams of a gravity-defying economy
即將刊出下文《讀後》。
It's Trump's economy now. The latest financial numbers offer some warning signs
JOSH BOAK and CHRISTOPHER RUGBER, 08/03/25
WASHINGTON (AP) — For all of President Donald Trump’s promises of an economic “golden age,” a spate of weak indicators this week told a potentially worrisome story as the impacts of his policies are coming into focus.
Job gains are dwindling. Inflation is ticking upward. Growth has slowed compared with last year.
More than six months into his term, Trump’s blitz of tariff hikes and his new tax and spending bill have remodeled America’s trading, manufacturing, energy and tax systems to his own liking. He’s eager to take credit for any wins that might occur and is hunting for someone else to blame if the financial situation starts to totter.
But as of now, this is not the boom the Republican president promised, and his ability to blame his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, for any economic challenges has faded as the world economy hangs on his every word and social media post.
When Friday’s jobs report turned out to be decidedly bleak, Trump ignored the warnings in the data and fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs figures.
“Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes,” Trump said on Truth Social, without offering evidence for his claim. “The Economy is BOOMING.”
It’s possible that the disappointing numbers are growing pains from the rapid transformation caused by Trump and that stronger growth will return — or they may be a preview of even more disruption to come.
Trump's economic plans are a political gamble
Trump's aggressive use of tariffs, executive actions, spending cuts and tax code changes carries significant political risk if he is unable to deliver middle-class prosperity. The effects of his new tariffs are still several months away from rippling through the economy, right as many Trump allies in Congress will be campaigning in the midterm elections.
“Considering how early we are in his term, Trump’s had an unusually big impact on the economy already,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist at Firehouse Strategies. “The full inflationary impact of the tariffs won’t be felt until 2026. Unfortunately for Republicans, that’s also an election year.”
The White House portrayed the blitz of trade frameworks leading up to Thursday's tariff announcement as proof of his negotiating prowess. The European Union, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia and other nations that the White House declined to name agreed that the U.S. could increase its tariffs on their goods without doing the same to American products. Trump simply set rates on other countries that lacked settlements.
The costs of those tariffs — taxes paid on imports to the U.S. — will be most felt by many Americans in the form of higher prices, but to what extent remains uncertain.
“For the White House and their allies, a key part of managing the expectations and politics of the Trump economy is maintaining vigilance when it comes to public perceptions,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist.
Just 38% of adults approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to a July poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs. That’s down from the end of Trump’s first term when half of adults approved of his economic leadership.
The White House paints a rosier image, seeing the economy emerging from a period of uncertainty after Trump’s restructuring and repeating the economic gains seen in his first term before the pandemic struck.
“President Trump is implementing the very same policy mix of deregulation, fairer trade, and pro-growth tax cuts at an even bigger scale – as these policies take effect, the best is yet to come,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said.
Recent economic reports suggest trouble ahead
The economic numbers over the past week show the difficulties that Trump might face if the numbers continue on their current path:
— Friday's jobs report showed that U.S. employers have shed 37,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump's tariff launch in April, undermining prior White House claims of a factory revival.
The image above shows the latest reported data of select indicators from the monthly U.S. jobs report. (AP Graphic) (ASSOCIATED PRESS) 請至原網頁查看比較統計圖表
— Net hiring has plummeted over the past three months with job gains of just 73,000 in July, 14,000 in June and 19,000 in May — a combined 258,000 jobs lower than previously indicated. On average last year, the economy added 168,000 jobs a month.
— A Thursday inflation report showed that prices have risen 2.6% over the year that ended in June, an increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index from 2.2% in April. Prices of heavily imported items, such as appliances, furniture, and toys and games, jumped from May to June.
— On Wednesday, a report on gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the U.S. economy — showed that it grew at an annual rate of less than 1.3% during the first half of the year, down sharply from 2.8% growth last year.
“The economy's just kind of slogging forward,” said Guy Berger, senior fellow at the Burning Glass Institute, which studies employment trends. “Yes, the unemployment rate’s not going up, but we’re adding very few jobs. The economy’s been growing very slowly. It just looks like a ‘meh’ economy is continuing.”
Trump's Fed attacks could unleash more inflation
Trump has sought to pin the blame for any economic troubles on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, saying the Fed should cut its benchmark interest rates even though doing so could generate more inflation.
Trump has publicly backed two Fed governors, Christoper Waller and Michelle Bowman, for voting for rate cuts at Wednesday's meeting. But their logic is not what the president wants to hear: They were worried, in part, about a slowing job market.
But this is a major economic gamble being undertaken by Trump and those pushing for lower rates under the belief that mortgages will also become more affordable as a result and boost homebuying activity.
His tariff policy has changed repeatedly over the last six months, with the latest import tax numbers serving as a substitute for what the president announced in April, which provoked a stock market sell-off. It might not be a simple one-time adjustment as some Fed board members and Trump administration officials argue.
Trump didn't listen to the warnings on ‘universal’ tariffs
Of course, Trump can't say no one warned him about the possible consequences of his economic policies.
Biden, then the outgoing president, did just that in a speech last December at the Brookings Institution, saying the cost of the tariffs would eventually hit American workers and businesses.
“He seems determined to impose steep, universal tariffs on all imported goods brought into this country on the mistaken belief that foreign countries will bear the cost of those tariffs rather than the American consumer,” Biden said. “I believe this approach is a major mistake.”
本文於 修改第 5 次
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美國通貨膨脹之最新數據 ---- Diccon Hyatt
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Jerome Powell’s job just got a whole lot easier as inflation data sidesteps disaster
Markets have convinced themselves they’ll get a September interest rate cut. Now they’re eyeing a double reduction
Inflation Rose Less Than Expected In July, But 'Core' Inflation Stayed Hot
Diccon Hyatt, 08/12/25
Economists have been watching to see if shoppers are starting to feel the effects of tariffs at the register.
Key Takeaways
* The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% over 12 months in July, while "core" inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 3.1%.
* The annual inflation rate remained above the Federal Reserve's goal of 2%.
* President Donald Trump's far-reaching tariffs had less of an impact on consumer prices than forecasters had anticipated.
The annual inflation rate held steady in July as President Donald Trump's tariffs had less of an impact on some consumer prices than forecasters expected, but the details showed the key "core" inflation gauge accelerated.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% over the last 12 months in July, the same as in June. "Core" inflation, which excludes the volatile prices for food and energy, rose 3.1% over the last year, up from a 2.9% increase in June and reaching the highest since February.
The inflation rate was above the Federal Reserve's target of a 2% annual rate. The overall inflation rate was less than the 2.8% increase forecasters had expected, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The core inflation increase was in line with expectations.
Experts and officials at the Fed closely watch "core" inflation measures because food and gas prices can change sharply for reasons that have little to do with overall inflation trends.
The increase in core inflation was driven by a 0.5% increase in used cars, and 0.8% increases in medical care and transportation services. Air fares jumped 4% after falling for three months.
Energy prices fell 1.1% over the month, with gas prices falling 2.2%, helping to keep the overall inflation rate in check.
"Tariffs are starting to bite consumers, but the impact is modest so far," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. "While certain goods are clearly seeing tariff-induced price increases, consumers aren't feeling the pinch in a large way yet, and their budgets are getting relief from lower gas prices."
Economists have watched inflation data to gauge the impact of Trump's widespread tariffs on most countries and products brought into the U.S. from abroad, which he began implementing in February.
Tariffs Nibble, But Don't Bite
U.S. shippers, businesses and consumers now pay an average of 18.6% in tariffs on imports, the highest tax rate since 1933, according to the Yale Budget Lab. Companies will ultimately pass 67% of those added costs on to consumers, economists at Goldman Sachs led by Elsie Peng estimated this week. Companies were able to delay immediate price hikes by stockpiling inventory ahead of the tariffs, among other tactics.
Prices in some highly tariffed categories rose mildly or not at all: grocery prices were flat in July compared to June despite some food imports facing tariffs. Prices for new cars, which face a 25% tariff on most imports, also didn't rise at all. Apparel rose 0.1% over the month after a 0.4% increase in June. Appliance prices fell 0.9% after jumping 1.9% in June.
Economists have monitored the "core" commodities category as an indicator of tariff impacts. Core goods prices rose 0.2% in July from June, the same monthly increase as in June but above the average 0% increase since 2023.
"There are clear signs a range of goods prices are moving higher, pushing core goods inflation to a more than two-year high, but some major tariffed items, including autos and major appliances, have yet to show much impact," Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.
Update, August 12, 2025—This story has been updated after publication to include more details about the inflation report.
Read the original article on Investopedia
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「川普經濟學」的深度解析 -- Eric Levitz
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《聲音》網誌是個自由派或進步派人士主導的媒體，下文不無偏見影響下「唱衰」之嫌。我沒有能力判斷其結論的「如實度」；轉載於此備查，並謹供參考。
Turns out the Trump economy is not doing so well after all
Eric Levitz, 08/04/25
The US economy is bending — but not yet breaking — beneath the weight of President Donald Trump’s nationalist agenda.
That is the story told by an avalanche of economic data released last week.
According to those new figures, employers are pulling back on hiring to a dramatic (and unexpected) degree, economic growth is slowing, and consumer prices are rising. And there are strong indications that Trump’s trade and immigration policies are driving all of these trends.
While last week’s data provides little sign of an imminent recession or inflationary crisis, protectionism is still imposing a heavy toll on US households and businesses. And if hiring continues to slow — while firms’ input costs persistently rise — there is some risk that economic growth could stall out completely.
Unfortunately, Trump chose to compound that risk on Thursday by doubling down on his radical trade restrictions, imposing tariffs of between 10 percent and 50 percent on the imports of all foreign countries.
Here is a quick overview of America’s darkening economic picture.
American employers are pulling back on hiring
America’s labor market is much weaker than previously thought, a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report revealed on Friday. US employers added 73,000 jobs in July, far fewer than the 104,000 that economists expected.
More alarmingly, the report suggested that job growth was markedly weaker in May and June than the government had previously believed. The BLS always revises its estimates of monthly employment gains, once more data becomes available. Usually, these updates do not fundamentally change the labor market outlook. This time, they did.
The government initially thought that employers had added 144,000 jobs in May and 147,000 in June; it now believes that they added just 19,000 during the first month and 14,000 during the second. (Trump responded to this unwelcome information by declaring it fraudulent and firing the head of the BLS.)
This updated data suggests that Trump’s tariffs (and tariff threats) have had a detrimental impact on hiring. After he unveiled his plans for sweeping universal tariffs on April 1, employment in America’s manufacturing and “trade and transport” industries abruptly declined:
Manufacturing graph of employees hired 請至原網頁查看比較統計圖表
All employees, trade, transportation, and utilities 請至原網頁查看比較統計圖表
Trump’s supporters may find it surprising that the enactment of broad tariffs would coincide with a reduction in manufacturing employment. After all, Trump has often described his trade policies as a strategy for creating factory jobs.
But the recent contraction in manufacturing employment makes perfect sense: Trump engineered a large increase in US producers’ costs by making foreign-made metal, lumber, semiconductors, and myriad other industrial materials more expensive. This makes it harder for US manufacturers to expand hiring or gain global market share, as they are now less cost-competitive than rivals in countries without large tariffs.
As trade-sensitive sectors have shed workers, employment growth has become almost entirely dependent on the health care sector, which has accounted for nearly all of the economy’s new jobs added in the past three months.
Economic growth is losing steam (and becoming more and more dependent on the AI boom)
The latest data on US economic growth tells a similarly disquieting story.
America’s gross domestic product officially grew at a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, after decreasing by 0.5 percent in the first quarter. But both of those figures are misleading. This is because Trump’s trade policies have greatly exacerbated well-known flaws in the government’s approach to calculating GDP. The reasons for this are a bit complex, but the upshot is that the government likely underestimated growth in the first quarter and overestimated it in the second, due to massive, tariff-induced swings in US imports.
Thus, to get a clear picture of the economy’s growth rate, it’s best to look at GDP trends over the first two quarters combined. And over the first half of this year, America’s gross domestic product expanded at a 1.2 percent annualized clip — a much slower pace than both its growth rate in 2024 (2.8 percent) and forecasters’ expectations for 2025 GDP growth when Trump was elected last November (2.1 percent).
As with employment gains, America’s GDP growth is highly imbalanced: An explosion in AI infrastructure spending is playing an outsize part in sustaining our economic expansion. Over the past six months, the artificial intelligence buildout has contributed more to American economic growth than all of consumer spending, according to the Wall Street Journal’s Christopher Mims. Should anything cause America’s tech companies to pull back on data center construction, the US economy could quickly sputter.
Trump’s trade and immigration policies likely explain the bulk of this slowdown in growth. Through ramped-up internal enforcement and restrictions on legal immigration, Trump has succeeded in shrinking America’s foreign-born labor force while deterring the arrival of new migrants. Largely as a result of his policies, America has shed 1.7 million immigrant workers since March. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve of Dallas estimated that Trump’s immigration policies will lower annual GDP growth by about 0.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs are almost certainly dampening both consumer spending (by generating high prices that deter shoppers) and business investment (by raising input costs and uncertainty). As of last Wednesday, Yale’s Budget Lab estimated that Trump’s tariffs would lower real GDP growth annually by 0.5 percentage points. Trump’s most recent batch of duties will almost certainly lower growth even further.
Prices are rebounding
Typically, when economic growth slows, inflation tends to cool. After all, lower consumer spending and business investment translates into reduced demand for goods and services. And when the demand declines, sellers are often forced to cut prices.
Yet inflation in the US today is actually accelerating, even as growth slackens. Consumer prices in June were 2.6 percent higher than they had been one year earlier, according to Commerce Department data released last week.
Food and energy prices tend to shift volatilely, so economists often focus on “core” inflation, which excludes both categories. And core prices in June were 2.8 percent higher than 12 months earlier.
Both of these rates were higher than they had been in May. And the underlying data strongly indicates that Trump’s tariffs are largely responsible for inflation’s resurgence.
Over the past three months, the prices of non-housing services (such as air travel or car insurance) grew at a 1.85 percent annualized rate. That’s an encouraging data point, as services had been the major driver of inflation last year.
But a sharp rise in goods prices counteracted that disinflation, with core goods prices climbing at a 3.7 percent annualized clip in the second quarter. And price growth has been concentrated in trade-sensitive goods, such as home furnishings and electronics.
In short, the data suggests that America plausibly would have enjoyed a return to the Fed’s 2 percent target inflation rate this year, had Trump not manufactured a surge in the cost of imported goods.
The risk of a recession is rising
America’s economy still shows some signs of life.
The unemployment rate remains at 4.2 percent, a relatively low level by historic standards. And after falling by 0.3 percent in May, inflation-adjusted consumer spending ticked up by 0.1 percent in June. Meanwhile, aggregate weekly payrolls — the sum of all wages paid to private-sector workers in a given week — was 5.3 percent higher in July than one year earlier. This represents an improvement relative to June, when total weekly wages were up just 4.5 percent on the year.
US consumers still boast significant spending power. The AI arms race doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon. And Trump’s recent package of tax cuts — while detrimental to growth in the long term — could boost demand in the short run. Perhaps for these reasons, betting markets currently give the US economy an 85 percent chance of avoiding a recession by year’s end.
Nevertheless, America’s economic outlook is much gloomier than it was one week ago. Trump’s trade policies have already nudged the US toward stagflation, a simultaneous rise in inflation and stagnation of growth. And most of Trump’s tariffs have yet to actually take effect.
Many sectors are already responding to rising import costs by shedding payroll. If that trend continues, and unemployment rises, consumer spending will likely dip. Faced with less demand, more employers will need to lay off staff, which would further erode spending. A recessionary spiral could ensue.
The Federal Reserve may try to preempt that dynamic by cutting interest rates in September. But if Trump’s tariffs continue to lift consumer prices, the central bank could find itself at an impasse: The Fed normally raises interest rates when prices are too high, and cuts them when job growth is too slow. If both those conditions prevail at once, the Fed will find itself with no good options.
Regardless, this much is clear: Americans are already less prosperous and economically secure than we would have been, had Trump not curtailed our nation’s access to foreign-made goods and immigrant workers.
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任何「經濟現況」或相關統計數字都應該視為一個未來發展/走勢的「徵兆」；而不是「板上」釘的釘子。不過，在國家施政方針上「一廂情願」的後果，通常是難以補救的災難。
《川普經濟學》指出(請見本欄上一篇)：
「川普經濟學」的三大基礎分別是：「關稅」、「減稅」、和「大砍經費」(經費1、經費2)。
此三者的受益者都是財團，而受害者都是中等階層和此階層以下的廣大群眾。在氣候改變這個現實環境下，類似德州水災的災情未來可能經常發生。不但如此，川痞本人在滿足自己的虛榮或實利兩方面，又毫不手軟的猛花納稅人血汗銀子，例如：更換空軍一號、川痞生日閱兵、和白宮大舞廳翻修等等。至於川痞其它見得人和見不得人的公帑開銷，那就不是我這個不出門的老朽能夠一一列舉了。
孔夫子說：「不患寡而患不均，不患貧而患不安」(《論語．季氏》第1)；上述種種情況對比之下，美國社會今後可能不只怨聲載道(該欄2025/08/04)，零星槍聲怕是要此起彼落，震耳欲聾了。
我在拙作《國際現勢：2025》中說：「…；明年美國國會期中選舉，共和黨會大敗」(該文第2節)。《川普經濟學》兩次提到類似的預測。可惜到目前為止，民主黨不但提不出一個替代「川普經濟學」的政綱；又推不出一位眾望所歸的領袖；甚至維持不了表面團結的假象。總而言之，明年國會期中選舉，民主黨在參、眾兩院雙雙取得2/3席次絕對多數的機會，大概是泡湯了。
在川瘋淫威之下，全球諸小國領袖只得敢怒而不敢言，忍氣吞聲的摸摸鼻子、自認倒楣。但俗話說：「君子報仇，三年不晚」；又古有明訓曰：「牆倒眾人推」；讓犯眾怒和倒行逆施政府上台的美國老百姓，遲早要面對將「到」/該「到」的時候。「小不忍則亂大謀」，其此之謂乎？
大家且拭目以待「後美國時代」的降臨(該欄2024/12/31)。
後記：
請參考：貿易戰之勒索黑幫對上矇混老千(該欄2025/08/05)。
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