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貿易戰2025 – 開欄文
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瀏覽6,954 ｜回應61｜推薦2 |
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川普終於公佈他關稅政策的細節。
雖然不懂經濟學，對貿易和國際貿易更是一無所知。但看著川瘋上蹦下跳，我還是有「代誌大條了！」的常識。他一個人胡搞亂搞還好，找了一群歪瓜裂棗當幕僚，遲早玩垮美國。美國一干政客的自私和多數選民的無知，終於把他們老祖宗近300年攢下的家當敗掉。
眼看他起朱樓，眼看他稱霸王，眼看他樓塌了。只可憐一眾蒼生被拉著墊背；唏噓、憤怒、好笑、感傷、無奈五味兼而有之，是開此欄。
本文於 修改第 3 次
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《貿易戰之蘇西迪底斯難局》讀後
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該文主旨在於：關稅和限制輸出貨物並不是貿易戰的真正原因；當下貿易戰爭奪的果實是全球霸權(請見本欄上一篇)。由於它是從「大博弈」或全球戰略角度來了解「貿易戰」，可與「後美國」時代和川普讓中國贏了又贏兩文參照。
這篇文章發表於今年6月中旬；我當時大概被手邊其它雜務耽擱，沒有及時閱讀和轉貼。這兩天看完後，我雖然不能判斷作者的分析和結論是否精準，但相信它有一定程度的參考價值。
此文指出：「全球化」其實是美國財團的陽謀(該文「附錄1」)。當下美國一窩風「反全球化」者沒有搞清楚該政策的真正意圖，更不了解它曾經給美國資本主義經濟帶來的優勢和巨大利益。或者說它顯示出：一般民眾「可共富貴，不可共患難」的「白眼狼」通性。
我曾提及：美國或西方衰落的原因，不在於「『政策議題』，更和『民主政治』或『市場經濟』無關」(此文「前言」)；這個議題當然更不能歸咎於「全球化」。反之，「全球化」這個陽謀讓美國和歐洲先進國家兩者的上層社會，又多吃香喝辣了近半個世紀。根據「下滲理論」，這些國家的中、下階層社會也跟著多苟延殘喘了50年上下。否則，目前美、歐國家的社會亂象早在90後就蔓延開來，不可收拾；川痞那有冒出頭跳樑的機會。
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貿易戰之蘇西迪底斯難局 ---- Marc Chandler
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請見本欄下一篇《讀後》。
The Real U.S.-China Trade Fight Isn’t About Exports
Marc Chandler, 06/13/25
U.S.-China trade talks are focused on export controls and tariffs, but at a deeper level they are about the future of the Pax Americana formed after World War II. A corporate-driven globalization emerged as businesses adapted to U.S. hegemony, currency dominance, and protectionism. At stake now is whether China can follow the same path as the U.S., even while the American public begins to rebel against that model.
Pax Americana transformed global commerce through a distinct form of economic integration built on foreign direct investment, transfer pricing, and intrafirm trade—the movement of components, services, and intellectual property among subsidiaries of the same corporation. As Europe and Asia rebuilt, U.S. companies found their exports threatened by a strong dollar and foreign protectionist measures. Their solution was to invest directly in foreign production facilities. Illustrating this shift, General Motors, Ford Motor, and IBM established manufacturing operations throughout Western Europe, reducing exchange rate challenges and trade barriers while maintaining corporate control. This approach prioritized ownership over traditional trade.
It also necessitated intrafirm trade. Today, about one-third of global trade flows within unified corporate networks rather than among independent entities, forming the hidden circulatory system of modern capitalism.
GM exemplifies this trend. Components designed in Michigan are manufactured in Ontario, assembled in Mexico, and distributed throughout North America. What would have been exports in earlier eras now move invisibly within GM. This operational flexibility is a structural resilience that export-focused firms cannot fully replicate, particularly in periods of exchange-rate volatility. The champions of corporate globalization have effectively insulated themselves from currency fluctuations.
Popular narratives about globalization focus on companies chasing cheap labor overseas. The evolution toward direct investment follows a more sophisticated logic. Most U.S. foreign direct investment flows to other advanced economies—Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Canada—rather than low-wage destinations. These investments prioritize proximity to customers, market access, technological ecosystems, and stability.
This intrafirm trade created a governance challenge. How to price the transactions of transferring goods, services, and IP among related entities across different tax jurisdictions? The answer was transfer pricing, which determines the value of these internal flows, effectively distributing profits across national boundaries but within corporate structures. The arm’s-length principle requires related entities to price transactions as if they were independent parties, though it struggles with the subjectivity of valuing intangible assets and integrated operations.
Japanese firms responded with a massive foreign direct investment campaign. Toyota Motor, Honda Motor, and Sony Group established manufacturing operations in the U.S. and Europe, transforming from exporters into global producers with distributed networks. Like their American predecessors, Japanese companies mastered intrafirm trade and transfer pricing to maintain competitiveness despite currency and trade challenges. Their expansion was particularly strategic in its geographic targeting, establishing production hubs that could serve entire continental markets while satisfying local-content requirements.
Global trade governance never fully caught up. The 1947 General Agreements on Tariff and Trade focused on reducing tariffs on goods among independent economies but struggled to address the complexities of multinational networks. The World Trade Organization replaced the GATT in 1995 with a mandate covering services, IP, and investment measures—partial recognition that trade increasingly occurred within corporate structures.
There are two challenges now. The first lies in reconciling borderless corporate structures with taxation rooted in national sovereignty during an era of rising economic nationalism. Corporations operate globally; tax authorities regulate locally. Until that mismatch is resolved, intrafirm trade will remain a source of political and fiscal strain. This tension fuels skepticism about globalization, despite the efficiency gains and innovation that integrated production networks deliver.
The second involves China. The scale of its exports is destabilizing. Yet the U.S. is directly and indirectly blocking it from pursuing a comprehensive direct investment strategy. This may be a more meaningful containment of China than the more than 60 U.S. military bases in the region.
One might object that unlike Japan in the 1980s, China now is an adversary, meriting a strong response. But Japan’s status then was less clear. John Maynard Keynes opposed the economic bleeding of Germany after World War I not out of any affection for Berlin, but out of an appreciation for the likely consequences.
One need not believe in the Thucydides Trap to see that trying to asphyxiate China isn’t going to end well. It isn’t about ideological compatibility or strategic competitiveness, but realpolitik.
Marc Chandler is chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, a division of First Financial Bank.
Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’s newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit feedback and commentary pitches to ideas@barrons.com.
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歐盟公布反制川普關稅措施 -- Sarah Fortinsky
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EU warns of ‘countermeasures’ after Trump announces 30 percent tariffs
Sarah Fortinsky, 07/15/25
European Union officials warned on Monday that countermeasures are still on the table if they cannot reach a trade deal with the United States to avoid the 30 percent tariffs that President Trump announced over the weekend would take effect on Aug. 1.
The EU, which negotiates trade deals on behalf of 27 member states, responded to Trump’s surprise announcement by delaying its own planned countermeasures until Aug. 1 to allow time to negotiate a trade deal with the United States.
EU leaders, who met in Brussels on Monday, expressed optimism at the prospect of a trade deal but made clear they would not hesitate to reverse course if no agreement is struck by Aug. 1.
“The EU remains ready to react and that includes robust and proportionate countermeasures if required and there was a strong feeling in the room of unity,” Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, said after the meeting with EU leaders.
The EU’s trade representative, Maroš Šefčovič, told reporters that negotiations would continue Monday and said he’s “absolutely 100 percent sure that a negotiated solution is much better than the tension which we might have after the 1st of August.”
But, he added, “we must be prepared for all outcomes.”
“I cannot imagine walking away without genuine effort,” Šefčovič said. “Having said that, the current uncertainty caused by unjustified tariffs cannot persist indefinitely and therefore we must prepare for all outcomes, including, if necessary, well-considered proportionate countermeasures to restore the balance in our transit-static relationship.”
Trump on Saturday announced his administration would levy a 30 percent tariff on goods from Mexico and members of the European Union beginning Aug. 1, targeting two of America’s top trading partners.
He posted two separate letters addressed to leaders of the respective trading partners to Truth Social. In his letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump repeated concerns he has expressed in the past, claiming the European Union has long been unfair to the U.S. and that the bloc of nations was created to “screw” America.
“We have had years to discuss our Trading Relationship with The European Union, and have concluded that we must move away from these long-term, large, and persistent, Trade Deficits, engendered by your Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers,” the president wrote.
U.S. Census Bureau data shows that Mexico has been the top trading partner with the U.S. so far this year. EU members such as Germany, Italy, France and the Netherlands were also among the top 15.
Von der Leyen told reporters on Sunday that Trump’s letter shows that “we have until the 1st of August” to negotiate.
The Associated Press contributed.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
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《貿易戰之川普下達最後通牒》小評
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貿易戰之川普下達最後通牒 -- Jeff Mason等
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請見下一篇《小評》。
Japan, South Korea face 25% tariffs as Trump ramps up trade war in letters to 14 nations
Jeff Mason, Bart H. Meijer and David Brunnstrom, 07/08/25
Summary
* Trump extends negotiating deadline to August 1
* Stocks drop on tariff news
* New US tariffs debut, from 25% on Tunisia to 40% on Laos
* Treasury secretary says inbox full of trade offers
* Trump threatens BRICS nations with additional tariffs
WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS, July 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday ramped up his trade war telling 14 nations, from powerhouse suppliers such as Japan and South Korea to minor trade players, that they now face sharply higher tariffs from a new deadline of August 1.
The imposition of a levy of 25% on U.S. importers of all goods rattled Wall Street, with the S&P 500 Index (.SPX), opens new tab knocked back sharply, though markets in Asia were taking the news in their stride.
In letters so far to 14 countries, Trump hinted at opportunities for additional negotiations, even while warning that reprisals would draw a like-for-like response.
"If, for any reason, you decide to raise your tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added on to the 25% that we charge," Trump told Japan and South Korea in letters released on his Truth Social platform.
The higher tariffs take effect from August 1, and notably will not combine with previously announced sectoral tariffs, such as those on automobiles and steel and aluminium.
Countries have been under pressure to conclude deals with the U.S. after Trump unleashed a global trade war in April that roiled financial markets and sent policymakers scrambling to protect their economies.
Trump's executive order on Monday extends to August 1 the Wednesday deadline for negotiations.
Asked if the deadline was firm, Trump replied, "I would say firm, but not 100% firm. If they call up and they say we'd like to do something a different way, we're going to be open to that."
It was unfortunate that Trump was hiking tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, two of the closest U.S. allies, but there was still time for a breakthrough in negotiations, said former U.S. trade negotiator Wendy Cutler.
"While the news is disappointing, it does not mean the game is over," added Cutler, the vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
Trump said the United States would impose tariffs of 25% on goods from Tunisia, Malaysia and Kazakhstan, with levies of 30% on South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, climbing to 32% on Indonesia, 35% on Serbia and Bangladesh, 36% on Cambodia and Thailand and 40% on Laos and Myanmar. A deal with India was close, Trump added.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said some progress had been made on avoiding higher tariffs, of up to 35%, that Trump had suggested recently.
"We have received a proposal from the United States to swiftly proceed with negotiations towards the newly set August 1 deadline, and that depending on Japan's response, the content of the letter could be revised," Ishiba told a cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
South Korea said it planned to step up trade talks with the United States, and that exemptions or reductions in auto and steel tariffs must be included in any trade deal.
Thailand said it was confident it can get a competitive tariff similar to those on other countries.
In neighbouring Malaysia, the trade ministry said it acknowledged U.S. concerns on trade imbalances and market access, while believing that constructive engagement and dialogue remained the best path forward.
In Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, an official said Jakarta still had room to negotiate on tariffs, and its top negotiator would meet U.S. trade representatives in Washington.
A Bangladesh team in Washington was scheduled to have further trade talks on Wednesday, an official said.
The U.S. is the main export market for Bangladesh's readymade garments industry, which accounts for more than 80% of its export earnings and employs 4 million people.
“This is absolutely shocking news for us," Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, told Reuters on Tuesday. "We were really hoping the tariffs would be somewhere between 10-20%. This will hurt our industry badly."
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the 30% U.S. tariff rate was unjustified, since 77% of U.S. goods face no tariffs in his country. Ramaphosa's spokesperson said his government would continue to engage with the United States.
MARKET DROP
U.S. stocks fell in response to Monday's news, with the S&P closing down about 0.8%, although Asian share markets were mostly resilient, with Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab recouping early losses and South Korean stocks (.KS11), opens new tab jumping 1.8%.
"There's going to be a lot of volatility as the headlines start to emerge, as more of these letters come out, and as the negotiations really come to the fore ahead of that August 1 deadline," said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at National Australia Bank.
Earlier on Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected several trade announcements in the next 48 hours.
Only two deals have been struck so far, with Britain and Vietnam.
China has until August 12 to reach a deal with the White House to prevent Trump from reinstating additional import curbs after Washington and Beijing agreed in June on a tariff framework. On Tuesday, China warned the United States against reinstating tariffs on its goods, and said it could retaliate against countries striking deals with the U.S. to cut China out of supply chains.
Vietnam and China agreed to boost trade and investment ties between the two countries during a meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Brazil, Vietnam's government said on Tuesday.
TRADING BLOCS
The European Union will not be receiving a letter setting out higher tariffs, EU sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday.
The EU still aims to reach a trade deal by Wednesday after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Trump had a "good exchange," a commission spokesperson said.
The EU has been torn over whether to push for a quick and light trade deal or leverage its economic clout for a better outcome.
Trump also threatened leaders of developing nations in the BRICS grouping meeting in Brazil, with an additional 10% tariff if they adopt "anti-American" policies.
The bloc includes Brazil, Russia, India and China among others.
Reporting by Jeff Mason, Andrea Shalal, Julia Payne, Phil Blenkinsop, Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey, Jasper Ward, Bart H. Meijer, Friederike Heine, Dmitry Antonov, Amir Orusov, Ilona Wissenbach, Sudipto Ganguly, Danial Azhar, Leika Kihara, Orathai Sriring, Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; Writing by Dan Burns, Doina Chiacu, Lincoln Feast; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Clarence Fernandez and Michael Perry
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
本文於 修改第 8 次
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貿易戰之川老慫又在虛聲恫嚇？ -- Jason Ma
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TACO：Trump Always Chicicker-Out；川老慫
請參見：
* 本欄2025/06/20貼文
* Trump Treasury Secretary Reveals Humiliating Detail About Tariff Talks
Wall Street was expecting a TACO Tuesday. But Dow futures fall 250 points after Trump says he will set tariffs as high as 70%
Jason Ma, 07/05/25
In This Article:
* While U.S. markets were closed for the July 4 holiday, stock futures sank on Friday after President Donald Trump said he will start sending out letters informing countries of what tariffs they will face. The rates, which could reach as high as 70%, would become effective Aug. 1, he added. That comes ahead of the July 9 expiration of a temporary pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs.
U.S. stock futures tumbled on Friday after President Donald Trump said he will start sending out letters informing countries of what tariffs they will face.
On Thursday, he told reporters that about “10 or 12” letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.” The rates would become effective Aug. 1.
“They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs,” Trump added.
While U.S. markets were closed for the July 4 holiday, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 251 points, or 0.56%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.64%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.68%.
U.S. oil prices slipped 0.75% to $66.50 per barrel, and Brent crude lost 0.41% to $68.52. Gold edged up 0.11% to $3,346.70 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar fell 0.16% against the euro and 0.30% against the yen.
The Trump administration has been negotiating with top trade partners since the president put his “Liberation Day” tariffs on a 90-day pause. That reprieve will expire on Wednesday, July 9. So far, only a few limited trade deals have been announced, and negotiations with other countries were expected to require more time.
So as the Wednesday deadline approached, Wall Street was expecting Trump to announce an extension to the tariff pause by Tuesday, reviving the so-called TACO trade that alludes to his history of pulling back from his maximalist threats.
“We suspect that further last-minute concessions will be made to permit extensions for most countries, but a few of the ‘worst offenders’ may be singled out for punitive treatment,” analysts at Capital Economics predicted earlier this week. “Markets seem to be positioned for a fairly benign outcome, implying a risk of some near-term turbulence if that fails to materialise.”
That assumes Trump won’t risk a repeat of the epic April selloff that was triggered by his Liberation Day tariffs, and Capital Economics also warned such an assumption could be complacent.
In fact, Trump has been saying for weeks that he prefers to unilaterally set tariffs with each country rather than engage in negotiations with all of them. But amid the absence of any letters, markets downplayed the risk that tariffs could spike again.
Still, Trump has kept beating the drum about letters. In an interview that aired on Sunday, he was asked about the tariff pause and the looming deadline.
“I’d rather just send them a letter, very fair letter, saying, ‘Congratulations, we’re going to allow you to trade in the United States of America. You’re gonna pay a 25% tariff or 20% or 40% or 50%,’” Trump replied. “I would rather do that.”
When asked if the pause will not be extended, he said, “I don’t think I’ll need to because—I could—there’s no big deal.”
Trump further clarified his stance on the July 9 deadline, saying, “I’m gonna send letters. That’s the end of the trade deal.”
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貿易戰之最後期限成滑動標的 - John Towfighi
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Trade talks probably won’t be done by Trump’s July 9 deadline, Treasury Secretary Bessent says
John Towfighi, CNN, 06/27/25
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said he thinks trade negotiations could be “wrapped up” by Labor Day, providing a more relaxed framework for inking deals than the previously prescribed July 9 deadline.
Bessent said in an interview on Fox Business that the United States has 18 “important trading partners” that it is seeking to make deals with.
“If we can ink 10 or 12 of the important 18 … then I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day,” Bessent said.
The Trump administration so far has announced only a trade deal with the United Kingdom and a truce in its trade war with China.
“With all things, they get done in the end. You have to put on a deadline,” Bessent said. “As you and I know, nothing gets done in Washington well in advance.”
Bessent also said that he expects rare earth minerals from China to start to “flow” back into the United States. China earlier on Friday announced it would approve the export of rare earth minerals to the United States.
“They were not flowing as fast as previously agreed,” Bessent said. “President Trump and President Xi had a phone call, and then our teams met in London, ironed this out, and I am confident now that as we agreed, the magnets will flow.”
Representatives from Washington and Beijing met in Geneva to discuss trade in May and then met again in London to announce a framework for implementing the trade truce.
Bessent said trade negotiations with China and the United Kingdom are “behind us for now.”
Bessent said if countries don’t get a deal done, President Donald Trump is open to reverting back to April 2 massive “reciprocal” tariff levels.
Wall Street and Capitol Hill have been fixated on when more trade deals might be announced, with the supposed July 9 deadline approaching.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
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貿易戰之川普處理關稅有如打手槍 -- Lee Moran
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這可不是我說的。
Economics Professor's X-Rated Take On Trump Trade Move Stuns Nicolle Wallace
“Well, you’ve left me a little speechless," the MSNBC anchor admitted to University of Michigan's Justin Wolfers.
Lee Moran, 06/19/25
An economics professor’s X-rated analogy for Donald Trump’s latest trade maneuver left MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace temporarily at a loss for words on Wednesday.
Trump last week said he’ll soon write to foreign countries to set unilateral tariff rates. It comes as the U.S. has so far signed just one of the 90 trade deals that was promised within 90 days of Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day,” when he announced plans to hike tariffs on imports from countries worldwide.
University of Michigan’s Justin Wolfers told Wallace:
“So, Nicolle, I don’t know if I’m allowed to say this on television, but sending a letter is to making a trade deal as masturbation is to sex. You’re not really involving the other party at all, and you’re not really figuring out the ways to exploit the gains from trade.”
“We didn’t need this whole mess,” the economist added. Trump “didn’t need to impose high import taxes on Americans. If all he wanted to do was send people letters, we could have done this 90 days ago.”
Wallace appeared momentarily stunned at the NSFW analogy, replying: “Well, you’ve left me a little speechless.”
She then pointed out that Trump’s “brand” is built on making deals, but that’s something he’s largely failed at with the current lack of potential trade deals for the U.S.
Wolfers agreed. “I don’t like to do ‘Trumpology’ because I don’t know what’s going on inside the White House,” he said. “But what I do know is that if you always made the bet that moving forward on any particular economic agenda would require a little bit of hard work, they repeatedly fail to do it.”
The “real world” concern, he concluded, is the ongoing uncertainty that Trump’s chaotic trade policies are creating for businesses nationwide.
Watch the interview here: 請至原網頁觀看訪談視頻
Related...
* Trump Spells Out A Chilling ‘Big Difference’ He Sees In Himself Since First Term
* Trump Rages At Reporter Who Refuses To Stick To ‘Positive’ Questions
* Economics Professor Utterly Shreds Trump’s Trade Chaos In 5 Seconds Flat
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貿易戰之美國弱點全部走光 -- Daniel Desrochers
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Trump’s latest trade ‘deal’ with China underscores key U.S. disadvantage
After two days of talks in London, China and the U.S. announced the outlines of an agreement to honor a deal they agreed to last month in Geneva.
Daniel Desrochers, Ari Hawkins, Phelim Kine and Megan Messerly,, 06/12/25
For the second time in two months, President Donald Trump on Wednesday touted a “deal” with China. There’s one problem: It’s largely the same deal the two countries agreed to last month.
And the initial readouts of the handshake agreement underscore just how far the Trump administration is from achieving its larger goals in the trade negotiations with Beijing.
"The two sides have already met once to try to de-escalate and basically agree to stop punching each other in the face with extreme tariffs,” said Emily Kilcrease, a former deputy assistant U.S. Trade Representative from 2019 to 2021. “And now they've come back together to say 'Yes, we've already agreed we should stop punching each other in the face. Let's actually stick to it this time.'"
Speaking late Tuesday in front of the ornate London mansion where they’d just held two days of talks, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told reporters the world’s two largest economies had agreed to ratchet back actions both sides have taken since they announced an initial deal to cool tensions on May 12. The “framework,” as officials from both countries described it, still needs to be approved by Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and many elements remain outstanding.
But the emerging details suggest the Trump administration is at a disadvantage. While the U.S. is promising additional concessions on the export of certain sensitive products to China and restarting Chinese student visas, Beijing has only recommitted to a pledge it made a month ago — lifting its blockade on shipments of critical minerals, which are essential components of everything from cars to computers to defense equipment. China controlled nearly 70 percent of the world’s mine production of those minerals in 2024, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. And control of that spigot is proving to be the ultimate pressure point in any tit-for-tat trade war.
“This is another band aid,” said Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the chief economist of the China Beige Book, a report that publishes data on the Chinese economy. “The Chinese can decide six months from now, ‘we don't like what you said about the party,’ or ‘somebody was mean to Xi Jinping.’ They can decide that and cut off rare earths again.”
One person close to the White House and in touch with the delegation in London acknowledged the advances made in the latest round of meetings are small and tentative. “The administration knows that any deal with China isn't worth the paper it's written on, but they can at least try to move the ball forward,” said the person, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state of negotiations. “This is not a trade deal. It's a framework and there's still a lot of details to be negotiated.”
The Trump administration, however, hinted at how desperate it is to restart the flow of critical minerals from China by offering to partially remove one of its biggest sources of leverage against China: export controls on sensitive technologies.
In his remarks to reporters Tuesday night, Lutnick said some of the export restrictions the U.S. has imposed on China in recent months on things like airplane parts and semiconductors and software would “come off … in a balanced way, when they approve the [critical minerals'] licenses."
Kilcrease called that a "very dangerous precedent."
"There was always this view that the U.S. will impose export controls because it's a matter of national security, and because it's a matter of national security, we don't negotiate over it. Now you've given China an opening in every single future conversation to come back in and push the United States on export controls,” she said. “And they're not just going to push on the kind of new export controls that were put in place for leverage. They're also going to push on the chip controls, the AI controls, all of the controls that they have hated for decades. We just opened the door to that.”
Dating back to the first Trump administration, the U.S. has used export controls as aggressively, if not more, than tariffs to reshape the U.S. relationship with China. The Trump administration has taken steps to widen that effort since the start of his second term in office, targeting lower grade chips used in everyday electronic devices, beyond what’s traditionally considered sensitive technology. Senior officials, particularly Lutnick, have vowed to strengthen controls and step up enforcement.
Despite those pledges, the U.S. faces pressure from top business leaders to loosen controls and allow greater access to the Chinese market, a pressure that isn’t matched in China’s authoritarian government.
Meanwhile, China holds a near monopoly on the global supply of rare earths — metallic elements essential to both civilian and military applications. And since December Beijing has imposed export restrictions on 11 such minerals as a second front in its deepening trade war with the U.S. and other Western countries.
All of those minerals are on the U.S. Geological Survey’s list of 50 “critical minerals” essential to “the U.S. economy and national security.” They include antimony, necessary to produce munitions, samarium which goes into precision weaponry and germanium which is a key to the production of military night vision equipment.
The U.S. has begun taking steps to develop its own rare earth mining and refining capabilities, starting under former President Joe Biden. But it remains decades behind Beijing in terms of domestic production and processing facilities, partly because of China’s own strategic and largely state-backed investments and efforts to flood the global supply chain.
China’s dominance over that supply chain, and the U.S.’s relatively small stockpile, makes it possible to put pressure on the U.S. side in a way that the administration has struggled to replicate.
“China has always had this trump card, they know how to use it, they've done it in the past and there's no reason to suspect that they wouldn’t play it going forward,” said Marc Busch who has advised both USTR and the Commerce Department on technical trade barriers and is now a professor of international business diplomacy at Georgetown University.
It is unclear how long this current trade truce will hold. Beijing isn’t completely toning down its rhetoric despite the temporary reprieve. China’s Commerce Ministry described the export restrictions on rare earths as “common international practice” due to their “military and civilian purposes” in an X post Monday.
And Chinese state news agency Xinhua called criticism of those curbs “misleading hype” and defended them as a “responsible measure to uphold international nonproliferation measures” in an X post Tuesday.
The Chinese government, meanwhile, has not commented on the framework agreement reached in London, beyond vague statements by its delegation heads. China's lead international trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, told reporters, per Chinese state media that "the two sides have agreed in principle the framework for implementing consensus.” Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called the London meeting “an important consultation” without elaborating on its details, Chinese state media reported Wednesday.
Beijing took a more gloating tone in a Xinhua state news agency oped published Wednesday that portrayed the Trump administration as the loser in its trade spat with China. “Washington was forced to spend billions in subsidies to offset farm losses, while companies struggled with rising costs of imported parts. The net effect has been supply chain chaos, business uncertainty and a lack of any clear strategic gain,” said the oped.
Still, one Trump ally said that framework marks "a critical step and traditional sign of progress in trade negotiations."
"Beyond Geneva, it opens up the ongoing negotiations. Progress on trade agreements is always incremental, complexity takes time," said the Trump ally, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the negotiations with China. "Both sides have political and economic vital interests to protect and advance."
Trump, meanwhile, continues to push for a face-to-face meeting with Xi, which has been a diplomatic focus for much of his second term. After a call with Xi last week, Trump said that he had invited the Chinese Communist Party leader to the White House and that he had accepted an invitation to China and would visit “at a certain point.”
Any such meeting could hold more water than the formal negotiations, which have been led by Trump’s triumvirate on trade: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Greer and now Lutnick.
“Unless we get a Trump-Xi meeting, I don't see that we can write an agreement that will stand,” Scissors said. “And it won't stand, because the Chinese will remain aggressive as they have been the entire time Xi Jinping has been in his party position, which is now 12 and a half years, and because the US will remain volatile While Donald Trump is president.”
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貿易戰之「是停火，即非停火」 -- David Goldman
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請參考我在本欄上一篇所做的評論/預測，以及這篇詳細的報導和分析。
Trump’s China ‘truce’ is nothing of the sort
David Goldman, CNN, 06/11/25
At long last, the United States has reached a trade agreement with China.
Again.
After a testy war of words that escalated into a tit-for-tat restriction on key exports, American and Chinese officials this week met in the United Kingdom with a singular goal: Find a way to agree to what they had agreed to a month earlier in Geneva.
It appears the countries’ top trade negotiators have accomplished that. On Tuesday night, both Chinese and Trump officials said they had agreed to a framework to implement the consensus they reached in May, and the trade truce would be sent to their respective leaders for their approval.
Businesses, consumers and Wall Street investors will no doubt breathe a sigh of relief: Burdensome tariffs have raised significant anxiety, and easing trade barriers between the world’s two largest economies should lower costs and help inject some much-needed certainty into an economy that has been demonstrating some signs of strain.
But in reality, the trade truce – if that’s really what was accomplished this time around – is mostly just a return to the already-tense state of affairs from before April 2. Tariff rates from both countries remain historically high, and significant export restrictions remain in place. The United States has not opened its doors to China’s autos, nor is it going to sell its high-end AI chips anytime soon. And, in President Donald Trump’s parlance, China isn’t treating America much more “fairly” after this agreement than it did before.
A much-needed détente
Without a doubt, a trade agreement was much needed. After Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcements, tensions ran so high that trade between the United States and China came to an effective halt. A 145% tariff on most Chinese imports made the math impossible for US businesses to buy virtually anything from China, America’s second-largest trading partner.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, America’s chief negotiator in both trade talks with China, said previous tariff levels were “unsustainable.”
On May 12, delegates from China and the United States announced they would significantly roll back their historically high tariffs on one another. Economists pared back their recession forecasts, and moribund consumer confidence rebounded.
But Trump and his administration in recent weeks grew increasingly hostile toward China, accusing the country of breaking the promises it made in mid-May. China similarly said the United States failed to live up to its obligations under the Geneva agreement.
The Trump administration had expected China to lift restrictions on rare-earth materials that are critical components for a wide range of electronics, but China has only very slowly allowed them to return to the open market, causing intense displeasure inside the Trump administration and prompting a series of export restrictions on US goods to China, three administration officials told CNN last month.
China has a virtual monopoly on rare earths, without which cars, jet engines, contrast dye used in MRI machines and some cancer drugs cannot be manufactured. Trump told reporters Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to allow exports of rare earth minerals products to begin, but industry analysts said the crucial materials had not been flowing to the United States as they once had.
If both countries satisfy the terms of the agreement this time around, the de-escalation should prevent the direst warnings about the trade war, including potential pandemic-level shortages.
Back to reality
Despite the good vibes, the United States and China remain in an economic standoff.
The Trump administration – and the Biden administration before it – have maintained that Chinese companies are more than happy to sell inexpensive products to the US market but that China places significant restrictions on US businesses operating in the country and encourages Chinese companies to steal American intellectual property. China has long disputed those claims.
Trump, in his first term, raised tariffs on China based on national security concerns. Biden maintained many of those tariffs and doubled down on some.
But the second Trump administration has taken trade barriers to an unprecedented level. It has placed a 10% universal tariff on virtually all goods coming into the United States. It put in place an additional 20% tariff on Chinese goods in an effort to get China to take action to reduce the flow of fentanyl over the US border. Both of those extraordinary tariffs remain in place on most Chinese goods, with the exception of some products like electronics.
In addition, the White House closed the so-called de minimis exemption that allowed packages with a value of under $800 to come into the United States tariff-free. Hefty new tariffs remain in place on small packages, undermining the business models of Chinese ecommerce giants Shein and Temu.
The compounding tariffs create significant trade barriers with America’s second-largest trading partner, raising prices for American businesses and consumers with no easy fixes or clear market alternatives. Some gigantic companies, such as Apple, have complex supply chains that can withstand some of the price pressures. But even Apple, which has said it would ship most US iPhones from India as Chinese tariffs rise, said it would face a $900 million quarterly cost increase because of tariffs – at their current levels, not at the sky-high 145% rate.
Other businesses, such as Boeing, have been completely shut out of China’s market. Even without any tariffs or other formal barriers by China on purchases of US aircraft, Boeing has made virtually no sales in China, the world’s largest for aircraft purchases, since 2019.
So a trade truce may be better than the alternative – if it lasts this time.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
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