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貿易戰2025 – 開欄文
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瀏覽1,029 ｜回應20｜推薦2 |
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川普終於公佈他關稅政策的細節。
雖然不懂經濟學，對貿易和國際貿易更是一無所知。但看著川瘋上蹦下跳，我還是有「代誌大條了！」的常識。他一個人胡搞亂搞還好，找了一群歪瓜裂棗當幕僚，遲早玩垮美國。美國一干政客的自私和多數選民的無知，終於把他們老祖宗近300年攢下的家當敗掉。
眼看他起朱樓，眼看他稱霸王，眼看他樓塌了。只可憐一眾蒼生被拉著墊背；唏噓、憤怒、好笑、感傷、無奈五味兼而有之，是開此欄。
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貿易戰之美國知錯能改？ ----- Eleanor Pringle
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雖然我們還不知道「90天低關稅協議」詳細內容，但相較於川痞談判前夕所揚言的「80%關稅」，則「川普先『慫』」應屬公論(評論1、評論2)。不過，由此可見：川普政府團隊並不完全都是些二百五或狂熱份子。至少讓人不用過於擔憂他會挑起WWIII了。
U.S.-China deal signals Trump’s team wants de-escalation, leaving analysts wondering if this is a clean-up operation or longer term strategy
Eleanor Pringle, 05/12/25
* The U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day pause in escalating tariffs. By reducing rates by 115%, they offer markets a temporary reprieve and signal a potential shift toward de-escalation in trade tensions. While some view this as a clean-up of earlier chaotic policies, analysts see it as a step toward broader negotiations that could stabilize markets and ease fears of stagflation and recession.
Scott Bessent has at last got some good news for markets when it comes to U.S.-China relations: Both nations have agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs with rates moving down 115%.
Economists have suggested the development can be framed in two ways.
Firstly, the Trump administration may merely be clearing up its own self-conflicted chaos, or
this may signal a push within the White House towards deescalating tensions with major trading partners.
This, in turn, could offer hope to trade partners such as the EU which are still working on ways to reach common ground with the Oval Office.
Whatever the reasoning, markets are bouncing even on the temporary reprieve of a near-three month window for further negotiations between the world's two largest economies to take place.
At the time of writing the U.K.'s FTSE 100 is up 0.4% while the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% for the day.
"I think what this is indicating, if you're in Brussels or even elsewhere, is that there is a real thread within the Trump administration that is seeking to de-escalate the chaos that has ... marked the first few months of the Trump administration," Elizabeth Ingleson, assistant professor in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics, told Bloomberg TV in the moments following Bessent's press conference.
"There is a thread that's trying to create a set of norms and a set of ideas underpinning the actions that have been taken," she explained but added: "I think it's very important though—if I'm in Brussels or elsewhere—to keep in mind that this is very retroactive ... that the chaos has already been unleashed.
"What Bessent is doing is cleaning up the mess, and it's a really important clean-up and it's an indication that there is a willingness on the part of both the United States and China to negotiate."
While Treasury Secretary Bessent represents the side of negotiation, there remain some hardline tariff fans within the White House, added Ingleson: "There are others ... who do take a very different approach to the the way in which trade and the United States's place in the world should operate, and that isn't going away yet."
Devil in the details
In the coming months as talks progress, analysts will be pouring over the specifics of a potential long-term deal to establish whether Trump's team have truly achieved their goal of rebalancing a trade deficit with China, or whether they have merely undone some of their own policies.
To briefly recap, President Trump's economic sanctions on China began early into his term with a 10% tariff on the nation to address his concerns about fentanyl flowing from the China into the U.S. This was then bumped up to 20% a little over a month later.
On April 2, Trump's so-called 'Liberation Day' he imposed a further 34% on China in order to address the trade deficit, to which China responded in kind. A week later President Trump confirmed a further hike to all Chinese imports, effective immediately, of 145% with China responding with it own measures of an increase of 125%.
Both sides have now agreed to lower their rates by 115% for the next 90 days, meaning Bejing faces a 30% tariff and the U.S. faces a 10% tariff.
Jamieson Greer, who is a trade representative for the U.S., outlined that Monday's announcement addressed "the reciprocal tariff which was imposed by the United States on April 2 and the escalatory steps which followed," adding "there are prior measures which change by product, by sector, by level etc" which could not be given a "specific number right now."
With uncertainty rife in the market since Trump took the Oval Office—and with foreign policy changing so rapidly—analysts are celebrating the news as a short-term relief as opposed to a longer term, certain shift in the outlook.
"This is clearly just the start of a broader and more comprehensive negotiations, and we would expect both these tariff numbers to move down markedly over the coming months as deal talks progress," wrote Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a note seen by Fortune this morning. "With US/China clearly on an accelerated path for a broader deal we believe new highs for the market and tech stocks are now on the table in 2025 as investors will likely focus on the next steps in these trade discussions which will happen over the coming months."
Worst-case fears abating
Trump's tariff plan—particularly the "Liberation Day" update in early April which pushed import rates from China to more than 150%—prompted fears of a raft of unsavory economic outcomes.
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, for example, feared that an 'America first' policy could push key military and economic allies into the arms of rivals, while others suggested the economic sanctions would choke business investment and stunt economic growth while also raising prices for consumers as business passed on the higher costs.
Stagflation fears (rising prices with weak economic growth) were mounting, but Bloomberg Economics said that the new rate on China means the average effective tariff rate on all U.S. imports is now 10.4 percentage points, down from 20.3 percentage points. As such, the ripple effects on GDP and inflation are more minimal, at a hit of 1.5% to growth and a bump of 0.9% to inflation.
Ives adds: "We also believe while supply chain and economic damage has been done by these onerous tariffs since Liberation Day...the Street will instead focus on normalized growth post this volatile six week period since April 2nd...and these massive tariff reductions at this time likely take a recession off the table for now in our view."
"The magnitude of this tariff reduction is larger than expected," writes Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "This reflects both sides recognizing the economic reality that tariffs will hit global growth and negotiation is a better option going forward.
“The 90-day period may not be sufficient for the two sides to reach a detailed agreement, but it keeps the pressure on the negotiation process. We are still waiting for further details on other terms of this agreement, for example, whether China would relax on rare earth export restrictions.
"Overall, we expect the market to get back on to a risk-on sentiment in the near term. Pressure on the Fed to cut rates may also ease for the time being.”
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貿易戰之中美同意妥協90天 - E. Farge/O. Le Poidevin
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在我看來，中國贏了第一會合。英、美和中、美達成的貿易協議，將使未來其它國家和美國協商時採取強硬態度，川痞最終勢必落個灰頭土臉。
The US and China have reached a deal to slash trade tariffs for 90 days
Emma Farge and Olivia Le Poidevin, 05/12/25
GENEVA (Reuters) -The United States and China said on Monday they have agreed a deal to slash reciprocal tariffs for now as the world's two biggest economies seek to end a trade war that has disrupted the global outlook and set financial markets on edge.
Speaking after talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the two sides had agreed on a 90-day pause on measures.
Tariffs will come down by over 115 percentage points on both sides, meaning China's tariffs on US goods should drop to 10%, from 125%. The 125% US "reciprocal" duties on Chinese imports will also fall to 10%, though China still faces a separate 20% tariff related to fentanyl.
"Both countries represented their national interest very well," Bessent said. "We both have an interest in balanced trade, the U.S. will continue moving towards that."
Bessent was speaking alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after the weekend talks in which both sides had hailed progress on narrowing differences.
The Geneva meetings were the first face-to-face interactions between senior U.S. and Chinese economic officials since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to power and launched a global tariff blitz, imposing particularly hefty duties on China.
Since taking office in January, Trump has hiked the tariffs paid by U.S. importers for goods from China to 145%, in addition to those he imposed on many Chinese goods during his first term and the duties levied by the Biden administration.
China hit back by putting export curbs on some rare earth elements, vital for U.S. manufacturers of weapons and electronic consumer goods, and raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.
The tariff dispute brought nearly $600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill, disrupting supply chains, sparking fears of stagflation and triggering some layoffs.
Financial markets have been looking out for signs of a thaw in the trade war and Wall Street stock futures climbed and the dollar (DX=F) firmed against safe haven peers on Monday as the talks boosted hopes a global recession might be avoided.
"This is better than I expected. I thought tariffs would be cut to somewhere around 50% and this is much lower," Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, told Reuters. "Obviously, this is very positive news for economies in both countries and for the global economy, and makes investors much less concerned about the damage to global supply chains in the short term."
"But we also need to keep in mind this is only a three-month temporary reduction of tariffs. So this is the beginning of a long process. The two sides will spend months probably, to come up with a resolution, or reach a final trade deal, but this is a very good starting point," he added.
(Reporting by Emma Farge and Olivia Le PoidevinEditing by Dave Graham)
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貿易戰之雙方都撐不下去 ---- Antoni Slodkowski等
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Inside China's decision to come to the table on Trump tariffs
Antoni Slodkowski/Laurie Chen, 05/09/25
BEIJING (Reuters) - Since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on China last month, Beijing has responded in kind. On state and social media, it posted images of Mao Zedong, lambasted "imperialists," and sent a message: capitulation to bullies is dangerous, and it wouldn't back down.
But behind closed doors, Chinese officials have grown increasingly alarmed about tariffs' impact on the economy and the risk of isolation as China's trading partners have started negotiating deals with Washington, according to three officials familiar with Beijing's thinking.
These factors, along with outreach by the U.S. and an easing of Trump's rhetoric, persuaded Beijing to send its economic tsar He Lifeng for meetings with U.S. counterparts in Switzerland this weekend, the officials told Reuters.
Re-engagement was complicated by the fractious nature of U.S.-China diplomacy. In particular, Beijing considered a letter the U.S. side sent to Chinese ministries in late April about fentanyl "arrogant," two officials said. Efforts to arrange talks were further impaired by disagreements over which officials should be involved, said one of these people and another official.
China's reasons for deciding to negotiate, Washington's letter on fentanyl, U.S. diplomatic challenges in Beijing, and the early outreach between the two sides are reported by Reuters for the first time, based on interviews with nearly a dozen government officials and experts on both sides. Most of the people were granted anonymity to discuss non-public information.
China's foreign ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it reiterated that "China's firm opposition to the U.S. abuse of tariffs is consistent and clear, and there is no change."
"The U.S. has ignored China's goodwill and unreasonably imposed tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl. This is a typical act of bullying, which seriously undermines dialogue and cooperation between the two sides in the field of drug control."
China's State Council and ministry of commerce, and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
In response to Reuters' questions about the lead-up to the Geneva talks, the U.S. State Department said it and the U.S. Embassy in Beijing "continue to regularly engage Chinese counterparts to advance the interests of the American people."
China's Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying said on Friday that China has full confidence in its ability to manage U.S. trade issues, adding that the Trump administration's approach cannot be sustained.
The trade war between the world's two largest economies, combined with Trump's decision last month to impose duties on dozens of other countries, has disrupted supply chains, unsettled financial markets and stoked fears of a sharp downturn in global growth.
Chinese export restrictions, meanwhile, have squeezed the supply of critical minerals the U.S. needs for weapons, electronics and consumer goods. Trump's approval ratings are falling due to his handling of tariffs and the economy.
The volatile run-up to the Geneva talks underscores the deep mistrust and divergent negotiating styles between the Trump team and China, which could make for protracted and fraught discussions.
"Both sides I think are balancing trying to look tough with not wanting to be responsible for sinking the global economy," said Scott Kennedy, an expert in Chinese business affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"The Chinese set a high bar for these talks, but it became increasingly clear that the Trump administration wanted to talk, and they couldn't say no forever. So, they've accepted what are probably best seen as pre-negotiations in Geneva."
FROM MINISTER TO TSAR
After Trump's tariff salvo last month, China took a hard line in its public messaging. Beijing posted footage on its official social media feeds of a Chinese MiG-15 fighter shooting down a U.S. jet in the Korean War, with commentary: "China won't kneel down, because we know standing up for ourselves keeps the possibility of cooperation alive, while compromise snuffs it out."
The tone began to shift on April 30, when a state media-affiliated blog said the U.S. had "proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to discuss tariffs."
CSIS's Kennedy said contacts between Chinese agencies, Beijing's embassy in Washington and the Trump administration had been increasing in frequency in recent weeks. Some in-person interactions took place at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in late April, including with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which paved the way for the Swiss meeting, said Kennedy.
After Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao quietly reached out to his U.S. counterpart, Howard Lutnick, but was rebuffed as not senior enough, according to one official familiar with the exchanges.
Trump has been pushing for direct talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. But China has rejected that idea as not in keeping with its traditional approach of working out the details first before the leaders sign any deal, according to public statements by both sides.
Another significant factor for China was Trump's public berating of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in February, said one of the sources, adding that any unscripted hostile interaction between the U.S. and Chinese leaders would represent an unacceptable loss of face for Xi.
As messaging on both sides grew more conciliatory, China decided to put forward its vice premier and Xi confidant He Lifeng, whose direct predecessor struck the "Phase One" trade deal with the U.S. in 2019.
The move satisfied Washington's demands for substantive talks with a senior official with direct access to Xi, but avoided exposing the Chinese leader to potential embarrassment, said one of the sources.
As for the choice of venue, the Swiss foreign ministry said that "during its recent contacts in Washington and Beijing, Switzerland expressed to the U.S. and Chinese authorities its willingness to organize a meeting between the two parties in Geneva."
ECONOMIC PAIN
Among the main drivers of Beijing's climb-down were internal signals that Chinese companies were struggling to avoid bankruptcies and to replace the U.S. market, three people familiar with the Chinese government's thinking said.
Some areas feeling immediate impact were furniture and toy makers, as well as textiles, said one of the officials.
U.S. diplomats in China have also been closely monitoring factory closures, strikes, and job losses in the industrial heartland in southern China.
Many analysts have downgraded their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China, and investment bank Nomura has warned the trade war could cost it up to 16 million jobs. China's central bank this week announced fresh monetary stimulus.
One of the officials said Chinese companies were struggling to replace the U.S. market because developing nations cannot buy as many items, and that for many firms this was an existential threat that needed to be resolved in days or weeks.
In addition, Beijing was worried it was left without a place at the negotiating table while its major trading partners, such as Vietnam, India and Japan, began talks with Washington, said two officials familiar with Beijing's thinking.
In a warning to the countries negotiating with the U.S., China's commerce ministry said in a statement this week that "appeasement cannot bring peace, compromise cannot be respected, and adhering to principled positions and upholding fairness and justice is the right way to safeguard one's own interests."
As part of the push to counter the U.S., China is sending its Premier Li Qiang to Malaysia in late May for a summit with a newly established group of Southeast Asian and Arab nations, two sources told Reuters.
A regional diplomat based in Beijing told Reuters China's message to Southeast Asia was "We will buy stuff from you."
In Geneva, Beijing appears to have modest expectations.
Internally, China has downgraded the talks from a higher level to merely a meeting, reflecting its view that the discussions will be mostly about finding out Washington's demands and red lines after weeks of contradictory messages by Trump and other senior U.S. officials, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Still, one official said China could draw on its extensive toolbox and follow Asian neighbors in offering to buy more American liquefied natural gas.
On the table may also be purchases of agricultural goods, similar to the 2019 "Phase One" deal during Trump's first term. At the time, Beijing said it would increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products by $32 billion over two years.
While other matters like the U.S.'s axing of the "de minimis" exemption for packages under $800 from China and the sale of TikTok are also likely to play a part in the broader talks, Chinese officials said they do not expect them to play a central role this weekend.
FENTANYL AND TURMOIL
Even before triggering the broader trade war, Trump imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, saying Beijing wasn't doing enough to counter the flow of chemicals used to produce the deadly drug fentanyl.
One of the moves that complicated the rapprochement, according to two officials, was a letter sent by the U.S. to China in late April that outlined the steps Trump wanted Beijing to take on fentanyl.
The document, reviewed by Reuters, caused friction with Beijing because it referenced a congressional report that asserted China, through value-added tax rebates for exporters, directly subsidizes production of fentanyl precursors for sale abroad. China denies it does so.
The letter, sent to the ministries of foreign affairs, commerce, and public security, called on Beijing to publicize the crackdown on fentanyl precursors on the front page of the Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily; send a similar message through "internal party channels" to party members; tighten regulation of some specified chemicals; and deepen law-enforcement cooperation.
Two officials familiar with China's reaction said it found especially the first two points "arrogant" because Beijing saw it as the U.S. dictating what China should do within its ruling apparatus.
One said fentanyl would feature in the Geneva talks and that the U.S. government's opening position would be to present the four points to China.
A U.S. official familiar with the letter said the Trump administration simply wanted China to curb the flow of fentanyl precursors to drug cartels.
Complicating the negotiations, Trump's Washington team has frozen out many U.S. embassy officials responsible for earlier contacts with Chinese counterparts, two people familiar with the matter said.
Trump's new ambassador to China, David Perdue, is slated to arrive in Beijing next week, but Deputy Chief of Mission Sarah Beran, who served as a senior official on China in the Biden administration's National Security Council, was removed from her post this week, the two officials said.
The turmoil has resulted in lack of internal consultations on demands put forward by the American side, the officials said. An official familiar with Chinese thinking said there had been minimal contact with the U.S. embassy ahead of the Geneva talks.
A State Department official told Reuters in response to questions that Beran's "upcoming departure from Beijing is a routine personnel change, and does not reflect the current state of the U.S.-China bilateral relationship."
(Additional reporting by Kevin Krolicki and the Beijing newsroom; David Lawder, Michael Martina and Andrea Shalal in Washington; and John Revill in Zurich; editing by David Crawshaw)
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美、英達成貿易協定 -- Ben Werschkul
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Trump announces his first trade deal with the UK. Here's what's in it.
Ben Werschkul, Washington Correspondent, 05/09/25
President Trump announced his first deal on Thursday since launching a global trade war. He unveiled a limited pact with the United Kingdom that would lower barriers on some goods, such as automobiles and agriculture, while leaving many details yet to be worked out.
It's a "tremendous trade deal for both countries," Trump said Thursday in the Oval Office. "This is a fantastic, historic day," added UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who joined the event over the phone.
"The final details are being written up" and will be concluded in the coming weeks, Trump added.
One key change not in the offing is any adjustment to the 10% baseline tariffs that Trump imposed on goods from nearly every country in the world. Those duties are set to stay in place in this deal, with Trump reiterating Thursday that he views 10% as the minimum and that other countries will face far higher duties.
The core of the deal is essentially a trade where the UK will get a lowering of duties on key sectors. Mostly in focus are steel — US duties on UK-made steel will drop from 25% to 0% — and car exports, where duties are set to be reduced from 27.5% to 10%, according to a release from the UK.
"We started at 10%, and we ended at 10%," noted Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick during the event.
In return, Prime Minister Starmer is offering promises to open the UK markets more to things like US autos, ethanol, machinery, and agricultural products, as well as so-far unspecified concessions on so-called digital service taxes that hit US tech companies.
In a Truth Social post, Trump touted "unprecedented" new access to the UK market and claimed that tariffs imposed by the UK would drop from 5.1% to 1.8%.
Trump said the deal also includes provisions around the fast-tracking of exports and new economic security measures. Secretary Lutnick added that Boeing is set to make new purchases of British airport engines as part of the deal.
Unanswered questions
Yet the unanswered questions were abundant.
In one example, Trump focused heavily on US beef exports in his opening remarks but then acknowledged that the UK wouldn't be changing its beef standards, which have been a far bigger hangup to trade than other issues like tariffs.
"I think they'll take what they want," Trump said of beef exports.
"There will be no weakening of UK food standards on imports," added the release from London, describing the deal as new reciprocal market access, including a new tariff-free quota for UK farmers.
"Work will continue on the remaining sectors — such as pharmaceuticals and remaining reciprocal tariffs," the UK government added.
The digital elements of the pact came in for immediate praise, with Tony Gulotta, a principal with business tax firm Ryan, touting the concessions on the UK's Digital Services Tax by saying, "This represents a win-win for both countries — removing a significant burden for American tech companies operating in the UK market while strengthening the overall trade relationship."
The announcement was enough to push US stocks higher on Thursday as investors turned optimistic that Trump's trade war may be easing.
But others were more cautious about the import of the announcement.
"I think it is going to be underwhelming as an opening salvo," Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners predicted during a Yahoo Finance Live appearance.
She noted it was good for groups like UK automakers but said, "There are much bigger pieces of this pie," pointing to still-outstanding deals on partners like South Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and India, where deals could be weeks or months away.
Overall, the UK has been spared the most intensive actions from Trump. A recent Yale Budget Lab report found that the UK economy is likely to be 0.2% bigger in the long run as a result of tariffs imposed to date, while other nations like Canada and China are set to take a hit and turn negative.
Today's announcement was the second trade win for Starmer, who inked a new trade agreement with India earlier this week.
Questions about a possible 'fig leaf'
Other reactions to the announcement from some in the financial community included skepticism about how far-reaching any agreement might be.
Dan Ives of Wedbush called the announcement "a baby step start of getting some deals/framework on the table," adding that "the reality is that the market and especially tech investors will view this announcement as a yawner ... with the laser focus being China negotiations, India, and Vietnam."
Terry Haines of Pangaea Policy added that, for markets, "the existence of today's deal matters more than any detail, because it confirms for jittery and impatient markets fundamental things," most importantly that Trump will move forward on deals.
Indeed, markets will have another round of trade talks to watch this weekend when two top Trump aides travel to Switzerland to begin those talks with China.
Trump also looked ahead to this weekend's China talks Thursday morning, predicting, "I think we will have a very good weekend." He offered optimism that progress would be possible there in the days ahead, and regarding tariffs, if those talks go well, "you can't get any higher, so you know it's coming down."
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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貿易戰之中國不急-J. Rimmer
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魔高一尺，道高一丈。
Why China is in no rush to seek a U.S. trade deal
Jules Rimmer, 05/06/25
Thirty-four days into the opening salvo of global trade-war hostilities and the U.S. has yet to sign any of the 90 deals in 90 days it promised. One possible explanation of the glacial pace at which negotiations with China are proceeding — if they are proceeding at all — is China’s confidence that it can find other export markets, alongside its apparent ability to get around trade barriers.
Chinese customs data, highlighted Monday by Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution, revealed a significant acceleration of Chinese exports to Vietnam and Thailand that most analysts would posit are in actuality transshipments to the U.S. Since the start of the year, both countries’ imports from China are more than 50% higher.
If China can still ship — albeit indirectly, in the process incurring higher costs — to the U.S., then its lethargy in sending a negotiating team to Washington is understandable.
The S&P 500 SPX has bounced back from early April lows on hopes that deals will be struck to lighten tariffs from countries, most notably China, where even President Donald Trump says levies are too high to allow for trade.
Interviewed by CNBC Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was visibly discomfited when questioned directly about whether talks with China were taking place at all. Bessent’s argument was that, in any trade dispute, it is the country with the surplus that has the most to lose from what he described as the “equivalent of an embargo.” The chart above suggests the current status of Sino-American commerce falls short of that.
It is worth noting also that three years of punitive trade restrictions imposed on Russia, largely mapped out by America, have failed to cripple Russia’s export capacity as designed. Relatively speaking, China has greater maneuverability, and it may be able to exploit the now-fraught relations between Washington and the rest of the world to its benefit.
To that end, the chart above demonstrates that China has effected a similar uplift in exports to the U.K. and Brazil this spring.
Given the spike in Asian foreign-exchange volatility over the last few trading sessions, it’s worth noting that the greatest beneficiaries of dollar strength are Asian exporters. No one needs a strong dollar more than China if it is to remain the world’s factory, and Asia is rapidly reassessing its mercantilist policies.
China’s advantages are the current testiness in relations between the Trump White House and many, even most, of the world’s countries, and its relative political invulnerability to the short-term political cycle.
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中美將進行貿易協商-Andrea Shala等
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US, China to hold ice-breaker trade talks in Geneva on Saturday
Andrea Shalal, David Lawder and Laurie Chen, 05/07/25
WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China's economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.
News of the planned Geneva meeting, first announced by Washington late Tuesday, sent U.S. equity index futures higher. Stock markets in China and Hong Kong followed suit during Asian trading on Wednesday.
The talks come after weeks of escalating tensions that have seen duties on goods imports between the world's two largest economies soar well beyond 100%, amounting to what Bessent on Tuesday described as the equivalent of a trade embargo.
The impasse, alongside U.S. President Donald Trump's decision last month to slap sweeping duties on dozens of other countries, has upended supply chains, roiled financial markets and stoked fears of a sharp downturn in global growth.
The negotiating teams convening in Switzerland, known for its neutrality, are expected to discuss reductions to the broader tariffs, two sources familiar with the planning said. The talks should also cover duties on specific products, export controls and Trump's decision to end de minimis exemptions on low-value imports, one of the sources added.
China's State Council did not immediately reply to a faxed request for comment.
"My sense is this will be about de-escalation," Bessent told Fox News after the announcement. "We've got to de-escalate before we can move forward."
A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson later confirmed that China had agreed to meet the U.S. envoys.
"On the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of U.S. industry and consumers, China has decided to re-engage the U.S.," the spokesperson said, citing a proverb about actions speaking louder than words.
This is the first meeting between senior Chinese and U.S. officials since U.S. Senator Steve Daines met Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in March.
Beijing has largely adopted a fiery rhetoric as tensions with Washington have ratcheted up, repeatedly saying it would not engage in negotiations unless the U.S. withdrew its tariffs.
Signaling a change in tack, however, China's commerce ministry on Friday said it was "evaluating" an offer from Washington to hold talks.
Asked about the apparent U-turn on Wednesday, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a daily press conference that Beijing's "position of firmly opposing U.S. abuse of tariffs has not changed".
The stakes for China's economy are high, with its vast factory sector already bearing the brunt of the tariffs. Many analysts have downgraded their 2025 economic growth forecast for the Asian giant, while investment bank Nomura has warned the trade war could cost China up to 16 million jobs.
China's central bank on Wednesday announced fresh monetary stimulus, flagging rate cuts and a liquidity injection into the banking system aimed at countering the economic impact of the duties.
Analysts described the move as measured and tactical.
"There’s almost certainly also an element of signaling to the U.S. government ahead of the upcoming meeting," said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
"The message is that Chinese officials are not panicked or scrambling to shore up economic growth, and they’re not going to be negotiating from a position of weakness."
MIXED SIGNALS
U.S. officials have held a flurry of meetings with trading partners since the president announced a 10% tariff on most countries on April 2, along with higher tariff rates that will kick in on July 9, barring separate trade agreements.
Trump has also imposed 25% tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, 25% levies on Canada and Mexico, and 145% tariffs on China, with further duties expected on pharmaceuticals in coming weeks.
China retaliated by boosting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%. The European Union is also readying countermeasures.
While Saturday's talks are aimed at easing tensions, it remains unclear how substantive they could prove, said Bo Zhengyuan, partner at Shanghai-based policy consultancy Plenum.
"For more comprehensive geopolitical negotiations to be possible, tariffs would need to be lowered first - the key is whether both sides can agree on the extent and scope of tariff rollbacks, as well as on follow-up talks," Bo said.
Bessent told Fox News the two sides would work out during their meeting on Saturday "what to talk about."
"Look, we have a shared interest that this isn't sustainable," Bessent said. "And 145%, 125% is the equivalent of an embargo. We don't want to decouple. What we want is fair trade."
Trump and his trade team have sent mixed signals over progress in talks with major trading partners rushing to cement agreements with Washington and avoid the imposition of hefty import taxes on their goods.
Bessent told lawmakers earlier in the day that the Trump administration was negotiating with 17 major trading partners and could announce trade agreements with some of them as early as this week.
Trump told reporters before a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney that he and top administration officials will review potential trade deals over the next two weeks to decide which ones to accept.
U.S. and Britain have made progress towards a trade deal, a British official said, while Bessent has said many other countries including Indonesia have made good offers to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, such as subsidies.
Trump's moves on tariffs, which he says are aimed in part at reducing the U.S. trade deficit, are so far having an opposite effect, with the gap hitting a record in March as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of the levies.
Notably, though, the U.S. trade deficit with China narrowed sharply as the crushing levies Trump has imposed cut deeply into Chinese imports.
(Reporting by Andrea Shalal, Steve Holland and David Ljungren in Washington, David Lawder in Chicago, Jarrett Renshaw in Philadelphia, Laurie Chen, Liz Lee and Joe Cash in Beijing, and Catarina Demony in London; Writing by Andrea Shalal and John Geddie; Editing by Dan Burns, Howard Goller and Shri Navaratnam)
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貿易戰之中國一手好牌 -- Linggong Kong
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這篇文章的標題有些言過其實；中國的形勢頂多只能說「略占上風」。情況的發展和演變，還得看美國出什麼招，以及其它國家如何回應而定。
內容方面，前三段(包含「前言」)並無新意；本欄以前報導都已經涵蓋。最後一段雖說不上高見，但孔先生的分析比較詳細和深入；可以參考。總之，實質傷害不論，川普搞臭美國聲望和降低美國地位，已經是板上釘釘的事實。
In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand
Linggong Kong, Auburn University, 05/04/25
When Donald Trump pulled back on his plan to impose eye-watering tariffs on trading partners across the world, there was one key exception: China.
While the rest of the world would be given a 90-day reprieve on additional duties beyond the new 10% tariffs on all U.S. trade partners, China would feel the squeeze even more. On April 9, 2025, Trump raised the tariff on Chinese goods to 125% – bringing the total U.S. tariff on some Chinese imports to 145%.
The move, in Trump’s telling, was prompted by Beijing’s “lack of respect for global markets.” But the U.S. president may well have been smarting from Beijing’s apparent willingness to confront U.S. tariffs head on.
While many countries opted not to retaliate against Trump’s now-delayed reciprocal tariff hikes, instead favoring negotiation and dialogue, Beijing took a different tack. It responded with swift and firm countermeasures. On April 11, China dismissed Trump’s moves as a “joke” and raised its own tariff against the U.S. to 125%.
The two economies are now locked in an all-out, high-intensity trade standoff. And China is showing no signs of backing down.
And as an expert on U.S.-China relations, I wouldn’t expect China to. Unlike the first U.S.-China trade war during Trump’s initial term, when Beijing eagerly sought to negotiate with the U.S., China now holds far more leverage.
Indeed, Beijing believes it can inflict at least as much damage on the U.S. as vice versa, while at the same time expanding its global position.
A changed calculus for China
There’s no doubt that the consequences of tariffs are severe for China’s export-oriented manufacturers – especially those in the coastal regions producing furniture, clothing, toys and home appliances for American consumers.
But since Trump first launched a tariff increase on China in 2018, a number of underlying economic factors have significantly shifted Beijing’s calculus.
Crucially, the importance of the U.S. market to China’s export-driven economy has declined significantly. In 2018, at the start of the first trade war, U.S.-bound exports accounted for 19.8% of China’s total exports. In 2023, that figure had fallen to 12.8%. The tariffs may further prompt China to accelerate its “domestic demand expansion” strategy, unleashing the spending power of its consumers and strengthening its domestic economy.
And while China entered the 2018 trade war in a phase of strong economic growth, the current situation is quite different. Sluggish real estate markets, capital flight and Western “decoupling” have pushed the Chinese economy into a period of persistent slowdown.
Perhaps counterintuitively, this prolonged downturn may have made the Chinese economy more resilient to shocks. It has pushed businesses and policymakers to come to factor in the existing harsh economic realities, even before the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s tariff policy against China may also allow Beijing a useful external scapegoat, allowing it to rally public sentiment and shift blame for the economic slowdown onto U.S. aggression.
China also understands that the U.S. cannot easily replace its dependency on Chinese goods, particularly through its supply chains. While direct U.S. imports from China have decreased, many goods now imported from third countries still rely on Chinese-made components or raw materials.
By 2022, the U.S. relied on China for 532 key product categories – nearly four times the level in 2000 – while China’s reliance on U.S. products was cut by half in the same period.
There’s a related public opinion calculation: Rising tariffs are expected to drive up prices, something that could stir discontent among American consumers, particularly blue-collar voters. Indeed, Beijing believes Trump’s tariffs risk pushing the previously strong U.S. economy toward a recession.
Potent tools for retaliation
Alongside the changed economic environments, China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S.
It dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports, by some estimates. On March 4, China placed 15 American entities on its export control list, followed by another 12 on April 9. Many were U.S. defense contractors or high-tech firms reliant on rare earth elements for their products.
China also retains the ability to target key U.S. agricultural export sectors such as poultry and soybeans – industries heavily dependent on Chinese demand and concentrated in Republican-leaning states. China accounts for about half of U.S. soybean exports and nearly 10% of American poultry exports. On March 4, Beijing revoked import approvals for three major U.S. soybean exporters.
And on the tech side, many U.S. companies – such as Apple and Tesla – remain deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing. Tariffs threaten to shrink their profit margins significantly, something Beijing believes can be used as a source of leverage against the Trump administration. Already, Beijing is reportedly planning to strike back through regulatory pressure on U.S. companies operating in China.
Meanwhile, the fact that Elon Musk, a senior Trump insider who has clashed with U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro against tariffs, has major business interests in China is a particularly strong wedge that Beijing could yet exploit in an attempt to divide the Trump administration.
A strategic opening for China?
While Beijing thinks it can weather Trump’s sweeping tariffs on a bilateral basis, it also believes the U.S. broadside against its own trading partners has created a generational strategic opportunity to displace American hegemony.
Close to home, this shift could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape of East Asia. Already on March 30 – after Trump had first raised tariffs on Beijing – China, Japan and South Korea hosted their first economic dialogue in five years and pledged to advance a trilateral free trade agreement. The move was particularly remarkable given how carefully the U.S. had worked to cultivate its Japanese and South Korean allies during the Biden administration as part of its strategy to counter Chinese regional influence. From Beijing’s perspective, Trump’s actions offer an opportunity to directly erode U.S. sway in the Indo-Pacific.
Similarly, Trump’s steep tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which were also a major strategic regional priority during the Biden administration, may push those nations closer to China. Chinese state media announced on April 11 that President Xi Jinping will pay state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from April 14-18, aiming to deepen “all-round cooperation” with neighboring countries. Notably, all three Southeast Asian nations were targeted with now-paused reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration – 49% on Cambodian goods, 46% on Vietnamese exports and 24% on products from Malaysia.
Farther away from China lies an even more promising strategic opportunity. Trump’s tariff strategy has already prompted China and officials from the European Union to contemplate strengthening their own previously strained trade ties, something that could weaken the transatlantic alliance that had sought to decouple from China.
On April 8, the president of the European Commission held a call with China’s premier, during which both sides jointly condemned U.S. trade protectionism and advocated for free and open trade. Coincidentally, on April 9, the day China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, the EU also announced its first wave of retaliatory measures – imposing a 25% tariff on selected U.S. imports worth over €20 billion – but delayed implementation following Trump’s 90-day pause.
Now, EU and Chinese officials are holding talks over existing trade barriers and considering a full-fledged summit in China in July.
Finally, China sees in Trump’s tariff policy a potential weakening of the international standing of the U.S. dollar. Widespread tariffs imposed on multiple countries have shaken investor confidence in the U.S. economy, contributing to a decline in the dollar’s value.
Traditionally, the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds have been viewed as haven assets, but recent market turmoil has cast doubt on that status. At the same time, steep tariffs have raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and the sustainability of its debt, undermining trust in both the dollar and U.S. Treasurys.
While Trump’s tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around. It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.
This article is published by The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Linggong Kong, Auburn University
Linggong Kong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Read more:
* What the spiralling trade war means for relations between the US and China
* This chart explains why Trump backflipped on tariffs. The economic damage would have been huge
* ICE has broad power to detain and arrest noncitizens – but is still bound by constitutional limits
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《貿易戰之中國先慫？》小評
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我看這個「擱置關稅」的「考慮」頗有貓膩(請見本欄上一篇)。因為，政策朝令夕改可不是中國政府一向謀定而後動的作風。
黨國資本主義體制下，即使此關稅政策自傷八百，習總也沒有必要這麼快就出爾反爾；政府部門、人民銀行、和地方銀行大可用津貼、補助、獎勵、甚至投資這類花裏胡俏的名目，替民營企業吸收關稅衝擊。
另一方面，川普面臨國內貨架空空和全球經濟停滯的警告；關稅談判又毫無進展，各國紛紛表示要審慎評估，連日本都不賣帳(本欄2025/04/24)。可謂焦頭難額、騎虎難下。
中國政府在這個節骨眼放出這個風聲，目的應該在於：當川傻陷入進退兩難之際，故意示之以弱、誘敵深入；把他騙到談判桌上，逼川傻簽個城下之盟。反正此人死不要臉，不論結果如何，到時他都將自行宣稱「完封勝」，再自居「全球最佳談判達人」來保住顏面。
我這個「門道」看得準不準，五月底以前可見端倪。此外，請參考本欄前面第三篇的分析，前面第二篇的評論。
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貿易戰之中國先慫？---- Khac Phu Nguyen
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China Blinks First? Massive Tariff Rollback May Signal Trade War Truce
Beijing considers lifting 125% tariffs on key US goods--markets rally as hopes for a reset grow.
Khac Phu Nguyen, 04/26/25
China is weighing a rollback of its harsh 125% retaliatory tariffs on select US imports, signaling a potential cooling in trade tensions. According to sources close to the matter, the exemptions could include essential products like medical equipment, ethane a key feedstock for plastics and aircraft lease payments. One Chinese airline has already been told its leasing fees may be spared, and regulators are now collecting customs codes from businesses across sectors, hinting at broader relief ahead.
The market reaction? Bullish. Asian equities climbed, the yuan erased earlier losses, and investor sentiment perked up. The move follows a similar step by the US earlier this month, when the Trump administration carved out key electronics smartphones, laptops, memory chips from its latest tariff list. These mirrored exemptions show just how interdependent the two economies still are. Beijing is also reportedly mulling tariff waivers on eight semiconductor-related items. That list doesn't include memory chips, which could be a setback for firms like Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), but the direction of travel is what matters here.
Of course, no one's calling this a full-blown resolution. Chinese officials are still demanding the US all unilateral tariffs before formal talks resume. President Trump has reached out to Xi Jinping directly so far with no response. Still, signs of backchannel pragmatism are emerging. According to the American Chamber of Commerce in China, some recent US shipments have already slipped through without being hit by new levies. The list of exemptions may still be fluid, but for now, markets are treating this as the clearest signal yet that the two sides might be ready to hit pause.
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貿易戰之美國終將勝出-J. Sor
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在我看來，貝史先生只看數字而忽略其它因素(請參見本欄上一篇分析)。存檔備查，七月底前後應該可以知道他的判斷正確或偏頗。
這篇報導最後一段關於：「中國決定不徵收『醫療商品』附加關稅」的訊息，則值得玩味。示弱、故意示弱、真有需要、還是找個台階給雙方下台？
'We win every time': Why 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass says the US has the upper hand in the trade war
Jennifer Sor, 04/26/25
* The US will likely outlast China in the trade war, according to Kyle Bass.
* The "Big Short" investor said he believes China's economy is feeling more pain from tariffs than the US.
* He thinks trade talks with China are happening, even though China has denied negotiations are taking place.
The US is in a good position to come out on top in its trade war with China, according to "The Big Short" investor Kyle Bass.
The investor and Hayman Capital Management founder said he believes the US likely has the upper hand in the trade spat. That's because China's economy looks to be more vulnerable to the impact of tariffs, and the US will likely "outlast" China in any negotiations, he told CNBC on Friday.
"In a tit for tat trade war, we win, every time. And I mean win, as in, the pain is much greater on their side than it is on our side," Bass said.
Beijing is likely feeling more pain from the tariffs than the US due to the imbalance of trade between the two nations, he said.
The US imports around $440 billion worth of goods each year from China, he said, around 2% of China's GDP, according to data from the Chinese government.
By comparison, China imports around $140 billion worth of goods each year from the US. That amounts to around 0.47% of US GDP, which clocked in at $29.7 trillion last year, per the latest update from the Joint Economic Committee.
That suggests China's economy could take a bigger hit if trade between the two nations is disrupted, especially considering China's ongoing economic weakness since coming out of the pandemic.
Bass pointed to the nation's economic slowdown and higher yields in China's bond market as signs that investors see greater risk putting money to work in the country.
"They are facing a banking crisis, a youth unemployment crisis, a real estate crisis, their 10-year bonds are 160, and they're telling the world they're growing at 5%. It's a complete lie. It's obvious," Bass said. "We are the largest consuming nation in the world. Certainly, we can outlast China."
And while China has denied that trade talks with the US are taking place, Bass thinks it's likely that negotiations are underway.
"We are certainly having those conversations. China will never admit that we're having those conversations. It will never admit to being, quote, 'the weak one' in the negotiations," he added. "They are certainly in the worse position in these negotiations."
Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the US and China were "actively" talking, though a spokesperson for Beijing said that "none of that" was true.
On Thursday, a spokesperson from China's Commerce Ministry called on the US to remove all unilateral tariff measures on China "if it truly wanted" to solve the trade conflict between the two countries. The nation, though, walked back some of its tariffs on US imports on Friday, allowing imports of US pharmaceuticals to come into China without being hit with duties.
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