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貿易戰2025 – 開欄文
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2025/04/06 11:54 瀏覽321 ｜回應7｜推薦2 |
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川普終於公佈他關稅政策的細節。
雖然不懂經濟學，對貿易和國際貿易更是一無所知。但看著川瘋上蹦下跳，我還是有「代誌大條了！」的常識。他一個人胡搞亂搞還好，找了一群歪瓜裂棗當幕僚，遲早玩垮美國。美國一干政客的自私和多數選民的無知，終於把他們老祖宗近300年攢下的家當敗掉。
眼看他起朱樓，眼看他稱霸王，眼看他樓塌了。只可憐一眾蒼生被拉著墊背；唏噓、憤怒、好笑、感傷、無奈五味兼而有之，是開此欄。
本文於 2025/04/22 14:31 修改第 2 次
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貿易戰之偷雞不著-R. Karma
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2025/04/23 17:09 推薦2 |
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What If China Wins the Trade War?
The United States could still prevail if it does everything right. The problem is that the Trump administration is doing everything wrong.
Rogé Karma, 04/20/25
If Donald Trump were trying to lose his trade war with China, it’s hard to see what he would be doing differently. The president’s gambit is likely to strengthen China’s geopolitical position, embolden Beijing militarily, and diminish both the United States’ global standing and its economy.
Earlier this month, Trump increased tariffs on all goods from China to 145 percent. China, in turn, responded with 125 percent tariffs on American goods, plus more targeted measures. This is a classic trade war: two countries engaged in a tit-for-tat escalation of trade barriers, each with the goal of forcing the other country to back down and, at least in theory, agree to certain concessions.
The Trump administration believes that it has the upper hand in this fight. “We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently remarked, “so that is a losing hand for them.” That view has things backwards. The fact that the American economy is hooked on Chinese goods is a massive weakness for the U.S., not an advantage. For many categories of goods, China is not only America’s top supplier but also the world’s dominant supplier, meaning that the U.S. can’t simply get them from other countries. According to data gathered by Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University who specializes in supply-chain management, China produces more than 70 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, air conditioners, and cookware; more than 80 percent of the world’s smartphones, kitchen appliances, and toys; and about 90 percent of the world’s solar panels and processed rare earth minerals, the latter of which are crucial inputs to cars, phones, and several key military technologies.
Pivoting to producing these goods at home would take years, if not decades: It would involve forming new companies, building new factories, creating supply chains from scratch, and training fleets of workers. For it to happen at all, companies would have to be confident that the tariffs would be in place for the long term. China, meanwhile, is only heavily dependent on the U.S. for a small fraction of its imports, and most of those items, such as soybeans and sorghum, can be imported from elsewhere.
Chinese businesses will be hurt by losing access to the American market, but that is an easier problem to solve. China can redirect some of its exports to countries in Europe and East Asia, whose citizens also need phones, toys, and toasters. Beijing could also give money to its own citizens to create more demand for its products at home and provide subsidies to its businesses to help them remain solvent. This asymmetry gives China what the economist Adam Posen calls “escalation dominance”: the ability to inflict disproportionate harm on its economic enemy.
China’s advantage has been bolstered by years of meticulous preparation. Multiple China watchers told me that Trump’s 2018 trade war—in which, at its height, the U.S. imposed an average tariff of about 20 percent on Chinese goods—convinced Beijing that it had to be ready to engage in economic combat at a moment’s notice. Since then, China has invested heavily in such industries as energy, agriculture, and semiconductor production to reduce its dependence on American imports, while pursuing a concerted strategy to consume more goods at home and find new non-U.S. export markets. The goal of these efforts, in the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping, is to “ensure the normal operation of the national economy under extreme circumstances.”
Beijing has also built an arsenal of offensive economic weapons. Already, China has responded to Trump’s trade war by banning exports of several rare earth minerals, a move intended to produce shortages of both major consumer goods (such as cars and phones) and military equipment (such as submarines and fighter jets); launching antitrust investigations into DuPont and Google; and halting all business with Boeing, America’s top aircraft manufacturer. If the situation escalates further, Beijing might block certain high-profile U.S. companies, such as Apple and Tesla, from doing any business in China at all. Then there’s the nuclear option: China, the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, could quickly sell off a sizable chunk of its $760 billion in U.S. Treasuries, a move that would send interest rates soaring, spook investors, and perhaps even trigger a financial crisis.
“China is ready for this fight,” Yeling Tan, a public-policy professor at Oxford University who focuses on Chinese political economy, told me. “It has been busy preparing for an entrenched economic conflict with the U.S. for a long time.”
Despite all of these challenges, the experts I spoke with agreed that the United States could still defeat China in a trade war if it does everything right. The problem is that the Trump administration is doing everything wrong.
China has some advantages in a head-to-head economic matchup with the U.S., but America has a secret weapon: its friends. If the United States were to join forces with its traditional allies in Europe, North America, and East Asia to collectively cut off China while deepening trade relations with one another, then this bloc could inflict much more damage on China (which would have fewer places to sell its goods) while minimizing its own pain (Chinese imports could be more easily and quickly replaced). This would require considerable planning and preparation. The U.S. and its allies would have to embark on a colossal coordinated economic mobilization to quickly develop new industries, develop a monitoring system for global supply chains staffed with an army of well-trained bureaucrats to prevent cheating, roll out the trade restrictions on a gradual timeline to give businesses and investors time to adjust, and establish clear conditions by which they would be willing to end the trade war. That’s a partial list.
Trump has, of course, done nearly the opposite of everything I just described. Instead of spending years, or even months, investing in American industry, Trump is angling to get rid of the major investments in semiconductor and clean-energy manufacturing implemented under the Biden administration. Instead of engaging in a gradual tariff rollout, the administration jacked up tariffs to 145 percent over the course of a few weeks. Instead of providing businesses and investors with clear guidance, the administration has changed its story by the day, if not the hour. And instead of building a coalition of allies, Trump has spent the past few months threatening, feuding with, and tariffing them. Even if the U.S. were to suddenly change course and try to build an anti-China coalition, a prospect recently floated by Bessent, it is likely too late. What country would sign up for economic hardship for the sake of an “ally” that has not only treated it poorly but has also repeatedly demonstrated that it can’t be trusted to honor any bargain?
The outcome of a trade war is determined not only by the pain inflicted but also by each country’s tolerance for that pain. On that front, the United States has one thing going for it: Voters generally support taking on China. One study of Trump’s first-term trade war with China found that voters in places that were most exposed to the effects of import tariffs became more likely to vote for Trump in 2020. A CBS poll in February found that 56 percent of voters supported placing new tariffs on China, even as majorities opposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and Europe.
The question is whether voters’ appetite for punishing China will outweigh the sting of chronic shortages and higher prices. Trump’s first-term tariffs against China were relatively modest, so they didn’t lead to big price increases. This time around, sticker shock will be impossible to ignore. Voters consistently cited inflation as the most important issue in the 2024 election. How will they react when the politician who promised lower prices instead presides over the opposite? According to several recent polls, most voters had soured on Trump’s tariffs before they had even gone into effect. Making matters worse, the combination of Chinese retaliation against American exporters and tariff-induced uncertainty facing businesses may also lead to a broader economic slowdown. Many economists warn of a return to 1970s-style stagflation: the toxic combination of soaring prices and rising unemployment.
Even Trump might lack the stubbornness to persist through that level of economic distress. He has already broken the cardinal rule of trade wars—never tell your opponent where your breaking point is—by “pausing” his global reciprocal tariff policy in the face of chaos in the bond market. Even if Trump were willing to withstand the political pressure for longer this time, he’s unlikely to outlast Xi Jinping, who faces neither term limits nor elections. “Beijing is very good at waiting,” Dan Wang, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, told me. “They might not be able to last forever, but they can certainly last longer than a single election cycle.”
In all likelihood, then, Trump will eventually be forced to back down. This might take the form of a deal in which China agrees to largely symbolic concessions that allow Trump to save face. (This is how the first Trump-China trade war de-escalated.) But China might not be so quick to offer Trump an easy way out. In that case, surrender might instead take the form of a series of tariff carve-outs to different industries, to the point where the exceptions exceed the actual tariffs. In either case, the result would be the same: The U.S. would have inflicted considerable economic pain on itself without getting much in return.
China, however, would have gotten quite a bit. Last week, the Spanish government declared its intent to strengthen relations with China. The European Union recently agreed to restart talks to settle a trade dispute over Chinese EV imports and will be sending a delegation to Beijing in July for a summit with Xi. South Korea and Japan recently revealed that they will be reopening negotiations over a long-stalled free-trade agreement with China. This week alone, Vietnam signed dozens of new economic deals with China, and Xi is currently on a tour of Southeast Asia to solidify relations with other countries in the region.
A Chinese trade-war victory would also embolden Beijing in noneconomic matters. China hawks have long insisted that one of the most important deterrents in preventing Chinese aggression, such as invading Taiwan, is the threat of an economic blockade. But if Beijing demonstrates that it can withstand such a barrage, that threat will lose credibility. China will become more likely to take aggressive actions, and American politicians will lose their appetite for using economic coercion to stop it. In that sense, a failed trade war could make the chances of an actual war more likely. You might even say that Trump’s tariff policy sounds a bit like the “disastrous” American military adventures that he has so often criticized. Only this time, he’s the one leading the charge.
相關閱讀：
[Michael Schuman: Why China won’t give in to Trump]
[Rogé Karma: The job market is frozen]
本文於 2025/04/23 17:11 修改第 1 次
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貿易戰之選邊站兩難 -- N. Gan
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2025/04/22 19:21 推薦1 |
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Beijing warns countries against colluding with US to restrict trade with China
Nectar Gan, CNN, 04/21/25
Beijing has warned its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to isolate China in President Donald Trump’s tariff war, as part of its carrot-and-stick approach to win over countries caught between the world’s two largest economies.
Commenting on recent media reports about the Trump administration’s plans to pressure countries into restricting trade with China in exchange for exemptions from US tariffs, a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry said on Monday: “Appeasement does not bring peace, and compromise does not earn respect.”
“Seeking temporary self-interest at the expense of others — in exchange for so-called exemptions — is like asking a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will achieve nothing and harm both others and oneself,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests. If such a situation arises, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,” the spokesperson added.
The stern warning comes on the heels of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s charm offensive in Southeast Asia, where he presented China as a reliable partner and staunch defender of global trade – in stark contrast to the tariff whiplash and policy uncertainty of the Trump administration.
Pressure has been piling on countries and businesses alike as they try to thread the needle between the two economic superpowers, which have slapped record tariffs on each other in a swiftly escalating fight that has roiled global markets, disrupted supply chains and stoked recession fears.
On April 9, Trump paused his “reciprocal” tariffs on most nations for 90 days while narrowing the focus of his historic trade war squarely on China, hiking levies on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%. Many countries are hoping to renegotiate the levies with the US before the suspension expires.
In response, China retaliated by raising tariffs on US goods to 125% and adding more American companies on its export control list and unreliable entity list. Beijing also moved to exert pain on key US industries, restricting the number of Hollywood movies shown in the country and returning at least two Boeing jets intended for use by Chinese airlines to the US.
With the US and China at each other’s throats on tariffs, neither leader is backing down – and both are looking to build a broad coalition of countries against the other.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the Trump administration planned to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure US trading partners to limit their dealings with China, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the conversations.
The idea is to extract commitments from US trading partners to isolate China’s economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House, including asking nations to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, prevent Chinese firms from setting up in their territories to avoid US tariffs and not absorb China’s cheap industrial goods into their economies, the WSJ reported.
For its part, China has sought to capitalize on the chaos and uncertainty unleashed by Trump and rally countries to its side.
In his first foreign trip this year, Xi visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia last week, signing a barrage of bilateral cooperation agreements and pledging to uphold free and open trade. The three export-reliant economies were hit by US “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 49% before the levies were paused.
Chinese officials have also held calls and talks with counterparts in Japan, South Korea and the European Union to push for closer economic cooperation.
But while countries appear receptive to Beijing’s outreach, they are also wary of being flooded with cheap Chinese goods that are now shut out of the US markets due to the sky-high tariffs – and the risk of provoking Trump for siding with China. Beijing’s own record of economic coercion, aggressive trade practices and assertive military posturing in the region is not helping, either.
Elizabeth Economy, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, said despite China’s overtures, countries are not “jumping at the chance to partner with China.”
“For many of these countries, even when China is a larger trading partner, the United States is often a much larger export market. So they have significant stakes with the US economy as well,” she said.
And even as Xi launches his charm offensive, Beijing is not stopping its military assertiveness in the region, Economy added, citing Chinese live-fire drills in waters near Australia and New Zealand in February, ongoing aggression against Taiwan, the Philippines in the South China Sea and Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.
“They’re not stepping back in terms of their security ambitions even as they’re trying to promote themselves as a stabilizing economic force. So I think that charm offensive needs to be more all-embracing if Xi Jinping is actually going to realize the kinds of benefits that I think he wants from what President Trump is doing,” she said.
This story has been updated with additional information.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
本文於 2025/04/22 19:22 修改第 1 次
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貿易戰之中國連環出招 ------ J.D. Capelouto
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2025/04/22 14:33 推薦1 |
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China’s trade war playbook is coming into focus
J.D. Capelouto, 04/21/25
While China has indicated it’s done hiking tariffs on US imports, at least for now, Beijing’s trade war strategy is evolving: In recent days, China has wielded non-tariff weapons to put pressure on the US economy — and American companies specifically.
China has sent back Boeing jets, restricted Hollywood imports, and suspended exports of a range of critical minerals used in manufacturing. That willingness signals how prepared Beijing feels to not only weather this storm, but also prevail in its influence over global trade, analysts argued.
And there are more tools in Beijing’s toolbox, should leader Xi Jinping choose to ratchet up the fight.
SIGNALS
Beijing’s strategy showcases a new form of retaliation
Sources: Bloomberg, The Washington Post, Financial Times
The case of Boeing — the company’s jets are being returned to the US after China reportedly told its airlines to halt deliveries — reflects how American manufacturing can become Beijing’s pawn. America’s aviation industry is in limbo, “with some airline CEOs saying they would defer delivery of planes rather than pay duties,” Reuters reported. China’s critical minerals curbs, meanwhile, could hurt US automakers and medical tech manufacturers; production could halt within months if stockpiles run out, the Financial Times reported. “It’s a form of retaliation where the Chinese government can say ‘OK, we’re not going to go tit-for-tat any more on the tariff rate but… we will incentivise companies to plead with your own home governments to change tariff policy,’” one senior auto executive said.
Trump ‘brought a tariff to a gunfight’
Sources: Nicholas Kristof, The Atlantic
After being caught off-guard by US President Donald Trump’s trade war in 2018, Beijing has shown more preparedness this time, hitting Washington where it hurts and indicating a greater tolerance for pain, several analysts argued. Trump could become “desperate to end the trade conflict,” The New York Times’ Nicholas Kristof wrote, arguing that given Beijing’s use of non-tariff, targeted measures against the US, Trump is “taking a tariff to a gunfight.” China can still inflict more damage on US firms, by restricting high-profile companies like Tesla from doing business, for example: Given Beijing’s capacity for escalation, it seems increasingly likely that “Trump will eventually be forced to back down,” The Atlantic wrote.
Chinese firms pivot to weather trade war storm
Sources: Financial Times, Peking Ensight
While targeting US firms, Beijing is also moving to insulate its beleaguered domestic economy. Acting under government influence, several Chinese e-commerce giants including Alibaba and JD.com have launched a national campaign to help the country’s exporters switch to domestic sales. Part of the motivation is in nationalism: “A sense of anti-US unity has prompted each Chinese company to do whatever it is capable of,” a Beijing-based e-commerce consultant told the Financial Times. But it also fits with Beijing’s broader effort to boost consumption and demand at home after years of sluggish growth, and the firms’ pivot “aligns with this ambition,” China economic newsletter Peking Ensight noted. Still, some firms that cater to foreign customers could struggle to serve a domestic consumer base that remains wary of spending money.
本文於 2025/04/22 14:36 修改第 2 次
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關稅和川普關稅策略懶人包 -- Jennifer Clarke
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2025/04/10 11:44 推薦1 |
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What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?
Jennifer Clarke, BBC News, 04/08/25
Watch: What is a tariff? The BBC's Adam Fleming explains 請至原網頁觀看視頻
US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world.
Trump claims that a 10% tariff on all nations and much higher rates of up to 50% on individual countries will boost the US economy and protect jobs.
However, there are warnings that the move could harm the world economy, and push up prices for consumers in the US and around the globe.
What are tariffs and how do they work?
Tariffs are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries.
Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. For example, a 25% tariff on a $10 (£7.59) product would mean an additional $2.50 (£1.90) charge.
Companies that bring the foreign goods into the country have to pay the tax to the government.
Firms can choose to pass on some or all of the cost to customers.
Why is Trump using tariffs?
For decades, Trump has argued that the US should use tariffs to boost its economy.
He says they will encourage US consumers to buy more American-made goods, increase the amount of tax raised and lead to huge levels of investment in the country.
Trump wants to reduce the gap between the value of goods the US buys from other countries and the value of those it sells to them. He argues that America has been taken advantage of by "cheaters" and "pillaged" by foreigners.
The US president has also made other demands alongside tariffs. The first announced during his current term targeted China, Mexico and Canada, after he said he wanted them to do more to stop migrants and illegal drugs reaching the US.
Trump has strongly defended his tariffs announcement but a growing number of influential voices within his Republican Party have joined opposing Democrats and foreign leaders in attacking the measures.
Long-standing Trump ally and Daily Wire co-founder Ben Shapiro said they could be economically catastrophic, and that the messaging behind them had been muddled.
Trump's tariffs are expected to significantly disrupt US car production and put up prices
What are Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs'?
Trump's minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the US was introduced on 5 April.
The UK, Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia are among the countries this applies to.
However, many nations will face much higher tariffs, from 9 April.
These tariffs include 49% on Cambodian products, 46% on Vietnamese imports and 20% on goods from the EU.
Chinese imports would face a 54% tariff (an extra 34% on top of 20% which had been previously announced).
However, China said in response that it would bring in a 34% retaliatory tariff on US goods. Trump then threatened to introduce a further 50% tariff on China - meaning a 104% tariff on some products. China has vowed to "fight to the end".
White House officials described the higher tariffs - on countries Trump called the "worst offenders" - as "reciprocal".
Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers such as regulations.
However, this is not what has happened for all of the countries on the list.
Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US's goods trade deficit with each country.
Some countries, including the UK, have had tariffs applied even though they buy more from the US than they sell to it.
Trump had also previously announced 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. However, he then announced some exemptions and delays.
He has also brought in 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, and foreign-made cars. A 25% tariff on car parts is due to start at a later date.
Will prices go up for US consumers?
Many economists expect tariffs to push up prices across a range of imported goods, as firms pass on some or all of their increased costs.
The products affected could include everything from clothing to coffee and alcohol to electronics.
Some firms may also decide to import fewer foreign goods, which could make those which are available more expensive.
The price of goods manufactured in the US using imported components may also rise.
For example, car parts typically cross the US, Mexican and Canadian borders multiple times before a vehicle is completely assembled.
Car prices had already been expected to increase as a result of earlier tariffs.
The cost of a car made using parts from Mexico and Canada alone could rise by $4,000-$10,000 (£3,035 - £7,588) depending on the vehicle, according to analysts at the Anderson Economic Group.
The measures could also damage the US economy.
The chance of a recession rose to 50% after Trump's announcement on new tariffs, according to former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Ken Rogoff.
Trump's top officials have repeatedly played down recession fears, and insisted that the tariffs would be implemented as planned.
What has happened to stock markets?
Trump's tariffs announcement has caused volatility on global stock markets.
Stock markets are where firms sell shares in their business. They reflect the best guess of what every company in the world is worth and what their future profits will be.
Share prices have been hit because investors think the new tariffs will increase costs and reduce profits.
Many people are affected by stock market falls - even if they don't invest in shares directly - because of the knock-on effect on pensions, jobs and interest rates.
How will Trump's tariffs affect the UK?
The UK exported around £58bn of goods to the US in 2024, mainly cars, machinery and pharmaceuticals.
It was already due to be affected by the earlier tariffs targeting steel, aluminium and car imports.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said "clearly there will be an economic impact" from the 10% tariff. However, he said US-UK trade talks are ongoing, and that he will "fight for the best deal for Britain".
The UK government has so far not announced any taxes on US imports. However, it is drawing up a list of US products it could hit with retaliatory tariffs.
Following the announcement of tariffs, car maker Jaguar Land Rover said it would "pause" all shipments to the US as it worked to "address the new trading terms".
Economists have warned US tariffs could knock the UK's economy off course and make it harder for the government to hit its borrowing rules.
How have other countries responded to Trump's tariffs?
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen warned that "the consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe".
Canada has announced a 25% tariffs on some US vehicles, with a start date to be confirmed.
Italy's Giorgia Meloni - a Trump ally - said the reciprocal tariffs were "wrong" but that she would work towards a deal with the US to "prevent a trade war".
In the Republic of Ireland, Micheál Martin said there was "no justification" for "deeply regrettable" tariffs which benefitted "no-one".
Australia's Anthony Albanese said "this is not the act of a friend".
South Korea's acting president Han Duck-Soo said "the global trade war has become a reality".
Japan said its 24% levy was "extremely regrettable" and could violate World Trade Organization and US-Japan agreements.
請至原網頁查看美國對世界各國/各地區所徵收新關稅的稅率表 Source: White House / US Census Bureau • Includes all countries and territories listed as affected by the so-called reciprocal tariffs. Imports data for 2024. *Tariffs given for these countries are those on the White House website and are 1% higher than those given by the White House on X.
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本文於 2025/04/10 11:44 修改第 1 次
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中、美貿易戰白熱化 -- P. Guo
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2025/04/09 15:35 推薦1 |
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川普應該在今晚0：00開始實施他的威脅；咱們且拭目以待，看看：「誰先做慫蛋」。
China vows to ‘fight to the end’ if Trump raises tariffs to 104%
Beijing said it will “resolutely” take countermeasures to safeguard its own interests after Trump threatened to impose a new 50% duty on Chinese goods.
Peter Guo, 04/08/25
Unfortunately, this video is not available in your region.
HONG KONG — China said Tuesday it will “fight to the end” if President Donald Trump imposes an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods as many countries rush to negotiate trade with the United States.
If the plan is fully implemented, the total tariffs on goods imported into the United States from China would be as much as 104%. In response, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China “firmly opposes” Trump’s tariff threats, calling its previous countermeasures “entirely justified.”
“If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” the ministry said in a statement Tuesday, adding that Trump’s threat to escalate tariffs on China is a “mistake upon a mistake.”
Trump threatened the new 50% duty on China, effective Wednesday, if Beijing does not withdraw its 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods by Tuesday, which China imposed in retaliation for a 34% levy on Chinese goods the Trump administration announced last week.
“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!” Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social. “Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately.”
Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are scheduled to take effect Thursday.
“I believe the actions of the U.S. side do not reflect a willingness to engage in serious dialogue,” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Tuesday at a regular briefing in Beijing.
The U.S. should “adopt an attitude of equality, respect and reciprocity” if it “truly wants to negotiate,” Lin said.
The Commerce Ministry urged the United States to cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China and resolve trade disputes through dialogue.
“Pressure and threats are not the correct way to deal with China,” it said. “China reiterates that there are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism leads nowhere.”
“China will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own interests,” it added.
Stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong rose Tuesday as Beijing scrambles to stabilize its markets amid panic over Trump’s tariffs, with Chinese state-backed funds pledging to buy local stocks.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong had climbed about 1.5% at the close of trading on Tuesday, a day after its biggest single-day decline in nearly three decades following China’s tariff retaliation against the U.S. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index closed up 1.7% after plummeting 7% on Monday.
State money is “more like a short-term stabilization gesture,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Natixis in Hong Kong. But it’s “unrealistic,” he said, to expect China to inject state-owned funds into its stock market indefinitely if the trade war with the U.S. escalates.
China will hit back at Trump with the same 50% duties if he proceeds with his threat, said Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.
“If Trump wants to take you to hell, you take him with you,” Xie said of China’s possible response in a phone interview Tuesday.
Xie said he thinks Beijing has concluded that compromise will only lead to more pressure from Trump. “China cannot back down anymore,” he said.
Trump’s 50% tariff threat doesn’t make a lot of difference, Xie added, as Chinese goods already face more than 70% in U.S. duties accumulated since Trump’s first term.
China has decreased its dependence on the American market, with its exports to the U.S. dropping to 14.7% in 2024, down from 19.2% in 2018 when Trump started a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, according to the country’s state-run People’s Daily newspaper.
“China [and] the United States will decouple. It’s a matter of time,” Xie said. “You have to bite the bullet.”
Trump said Sunday that China could get a reduction in tariffs if it approves a deal to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations. He confirmed reports that China and the United States had been “pretty close” to a deal over the video-sharing app but that Beijing backed out because of the new 34% U.S. tariff.
“If I gave a little cut in tariffs, they’d approve that deal in 15 minutes, which shows you the power of tariffs,” he told reporters on Air Force One.
However, the president seemed to backtrack on Monday, saying that he is not looking to pause his tariffs on China before they go into effect Wednesday, despite turmoil in the stock market and global economic fears.
本文於 2025/04/22 14:31 修改第 3 次
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中國反擊川普關稅措施一覽 – H. Wu等
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2025/04/06 21:42 推薦1 |
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China slaps a 34% tax on all US imports in retaliation for Trump's tariffs
HUIZHONG WU, ELAINE KURTENBACH and DIDI TANG, AP, 04/05/25
BANGKOK (AP) — China announced Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all U.S. imports next week, part of a flurry of retaliatory measures to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs that delivered the strongest response yet from Beijing to the American leader's trade war.
The tariffs taking effect Thursday match the rate that Trump this week ordered imposed on Chinese products flowing into the United States. In February and March, Trump slapped two rounds of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, citing allegations of Beijing's role in the fentanyl crisis.
The U.S. stock market plunged Friday following China’s retaliatory moves. They include more export controls on rare earth minerals, which are critical for various technologies, and a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization over what Trump has dubbed reciprocal tariffs.
China also suspended imports of sorghum, poultry and bonemeal from six U.S. companies, added 27 firms to lists of companies facing trade restrictions, and launched an anti-monopoly investigation into DuPont China Group Co., a subsidiary of the multinational chemical giant.
Trump posted Friday on Truth Social: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO.”
Yet he also indicated he could still negotiate with China on the sale of TikTok even after Beijing pressed pause on a deal following the new tariffs. On Friday, he extended the deadline for the social media app to divest from its Chinese parent company, per a federal law, for another 75 days.
“We hope to continue working in Good Faith with China, who I understand are not very happy about our Reciprocal Tariffs,” Trump posted on his social media site. “We look forward to working with TikTok and China to close the Deal.”
China's response to tariffs grows tougher
Beijing’s response is “notably less restrained” than during the recent two rounds of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, and that “likely reflects the Chinese leadership’s diminished hopes for a trade deal with the U.S., at least in the short term,” wrote Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the consultancy Teneo.
He said Beijing's tough response could trigger further escalation, with no sign that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump might meet soon or get on the phone to ease the tensions.
If China’s previous responses were scalpels, this time it drew a sword, said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.
“China’s new tariffs stop short of full-blown trade war, but they mark a clear escalation — matching Trump blow-for-blow and signaling that Xi Jinping won’t sit back under pressure,” Singleton said.
But the escalation also is squeezing out space for diplomacy, he warned.
“The longer this drags, the harder it becomes for either side to deescalate without losing face,” Singleton said.
What China's retaliatory measures look like
In Beijing, the Commerce Ministry said it would impose more export controls on rare earths — materials used in high-tech products such as computer chips and electric vehicle batteries. Included in the list was samarium and its compounds, which are used in aerospace manufacturing and the defense sector. Another element called gadolinium is used in MRI scans.
China's customs administration said it had suspended imports from two U.S. poultry businesses after officials detected furazolidone, a drug banned in China, in shipments from those companies. It said it found high levels of mold in the sorghum and found salmonella in the bonemeal feeds from four other U.S. companies.
The Chinese government said it also added 16 U.S. companies to the export control list, subjecting them to an export ban of dual-use products. Among them are High Point Aerotechnologies, a defense tech company, and Universal Logistics Holding, a publicly traded transportation and logistics company.
An additional 11 U.S. companies were added to the unreliable entity list, including the American drone makers Skydio and BRINC Drones, banning them from import and export activities as well as making new investments in China.
In announcing its WTO lawsuit, the Commerce Ministry said Trump's new tariffs move “seriously violates WTO rules, seriously damages the legitimate rights and interests of WTO members, and seriously undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system and international economic and trade order.”
The ministry called the tariffs “a typical unilateral bullying practice that endangers the stability of the global economic and trade order.”
Beijing's previous tariff moves
In February, in response to Trump's first 10% tariff, China announced a 15% tariff on imports of coal and liquefied natural gas products from the U.S. It separately added a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars.
A month later, Beijing responded to Trump's second round with additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. farm products, including chicken, pork, soy and beef. Experts then said Beijing exercised restraint, leaving room for negotiations with Washington.
By now, dozens of U.S. companies are subject to controls on trade and investment, while many more Chinese companies face similar limits on dealings with U.S. firms.
While friction on the trade front has been heating up, the two sides have maintained military dialogue.
U.S. and Chinese military officials met this week for the first time Trump took office in January to share concerns about military safety on the seas. The talks held Wednesday and Thursday in Shanghai were aimed at minimizing the risk of trouble, both sides said.
Tang reported from Washington.
本文於 2025/04/06 21:44 修改第 1 次
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中、美貿易戰之短兵相接 ---- Stephen McDonell
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2025/04/06 14:21 推薦1 |
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從這篇分析看，習總的反應可謂「淡定」。
今年二月初中國政府宣佈反制川普關稅的五個措施後，我曾說(該欄2025/02/05)：
看來都是些不痛不癢，虛晃一招的步驟。我可以想到兩個可能：
1. 中國沒有全面開戰的底氣；只能小打小鬧。
2. 中國沒有把「川普關稅」放在眼裏；不但認為它只是小孩子過家家，甚至藉力使力，用價格助長購買國貨的風氣。
這次出手重棒反擊(本欄以後陸續將有相關報導和分析)，可見中國政府不但早已胸有成竹，甚至在「扮豬吃老虎」。
China and US are at each other's throats on tariffs, and neither is backing down
Stephen McDonell, BBC China correspondent, 04/05/25
American companies looking to sell into the huge Chinese market have just taken a big hit. A 34% price increase on all US goods entering the country will knock some out of here altogether.
This is especially bad for US agricultural producers. They already had 10 or 15% tariffs on their produce entering China, in response to the last round of Trump tariffs. Now, if you add 34% on top of that, it is probably pricing most of them out.
Beijing doesn't seem too worried about looking elsewhere for more chicken, pork and sorghum and – at the same time – it knows it is whacking the US president right in his heartland.
Globally, all of this has analysts worried.
The problem is that supply chains have become so international, components in any given product could be sourced from all corners of the planet.
So, when the ripples of economic distress start spreading from country to country, it could have potentially catastrophic consequences for all trade.
Most concerning is that the world's two greatest economies are now at each other's throats with no indication that either is preparing to backdown.
Just take the timing of Beijing's announcement.
The Chinese government revealed its promised "resolute countermeasures" to Trump's latest tariffs in a written statement from the finance ministry at 18:00 local time (10:00 GMT), on a Friday night, which is also a public holiday.
The timing could mean several things.
1. It wanted to somewhat bury the news at home, so as to not spook people too much.
2. It simply made the announcement as soon as its own calibrations had been finalised.
3. Beijing had given up on the hope of using the small window it had before Trump's 54% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect next week to do a deal. So, the government just decided to let it rip.
If it is the last of these reasons, that is pretty bleak news for the global economy because it could mean that a settlement between the world's superpowers could be harder to reach than many had expected.
Another indicator of President Xi's attitude towards President Trump's tariffs can be seen by what he was doing when they were announced.
Elsewhere, governments may have been glued to the television, hoping to avoid the worst from Washington.
Not here.
Xi and the six other members of the Politburo Standing Committee were out planting trees to draw attention to the need to counter deforestation.
It presented a kind of calmness in the face of Trump, giving off a vibe along the lines of: do your best Washington, this is China and we're not interested in your nonsense.
There is still room for the US and China to cut some sort of deal, but the rhetoric does not seem to be heading that way.
Another possible path is for China to increase its trade with other countries – including western nations once seen as close allies of the US – and for these new routes to essentially cut America out of the loop.
Again, this would hurt not only US companies but also US consumers who will already be paying higher prices thanks to Trump's tariffs.
相關訊息：
* Live updates: Markets and reaction to Trump tariffs
* Full list: See all Trump tariffs by country
* Watch: Why Trump's tariffs aren't really reciprocal
本文於 2025/04/22 14:32 修改第 5 次
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