|
關稅戰2025 – 開欄文
|
2025/04/06 11:54 瀏覽222 ｜回應4｜推薦1 |
|
|
|
川普終於公佈他關稅政策的細節。
雖然不懂經濟學，對貿易和國際貿易更是一無所知。但看著川瘋上蹦下跳，我還是有「代誌大條了！」的常識。他一個人胡搞亂搞還好，找了一群歪瓜裂棗當幕僚，遲早玩垮美國。美國一干政客的自私和多數選民的無知，終於把他們老祖宗近300年攢下的家當敗掉。
眼看他起朱樓，眼看他稱霸王，眼看他樓塌了。只可憐一眾蒼生被拉著墊背；唏噓、憤怒、好笑、感傷、無奈五味兼而有之，是開此欄。
本文於 2025/04/06 12:52 修改第 1 次
|
|
關稅和川普關稅策略懶人包 -- Jennifer Clarke
|
|
|
2025/04/10 11:44 推薦1 |
|
|
|
What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?
Jennifer Clarke, BBC News, 04/08/25
Watch: What is a tariff? The BBC's Adam Fleming explains 請至原網頁觀看視頻
US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world.
Trump claims that a 10% tariff on all nations and much higher rates of up to 50% on individual countries will boost the US economy and protect jobs.
However, there are warnings that the move could harm the world economy, and push up prices for consumers in the US and around the globe.
What are tariffs and how do they work?
Tariffs are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries.
Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. For example, a 25% tariff on a $10 (£7.59) product would mean an additional $2.50 (£1.90) charge.
Companies that bring the foreign goods into the country have to pay the tax to the government.
Firms can choose to pass on some or all of the cost to customers.
Why is Trump using tariffs?
For decades, Trump has argued that the US should use tariffs to boost its economy.
He says they will encourage US consumers to buy more American-made goods, increase the amount of tax raised and lead to huge levels of investment in the country.
Trump wants to reduce the gap between the value of goods the US buys from other countries and the value of those it sells to them. He argues that America has been taken advantage of by "cheaters" and "pillaged" by foreigners.
The US president has also made other demands alongside tariffs. The first announced during his current term targeted China, Mexico and Canada, after he said he wanted them to do more to stop migrants and illegal drugs reaching the US.
Trump has strongly defended his tariffs announcement but a growing number of influential voices within his Republican Party have joined opposing Democrats and foreign leaders in attacking the measures.
Long-standing Trump ally and Daily Wire co-founder Ben Shapiro said they could be economically catastrophic, and that the messaging behind them had been muddled.
Trump's tariffs are expected to significantly disrupt US car production and put up prices
What are Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs'?
Trump's minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the US was introduced on 5 April.
The UK, Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia are among the countries this applies to.
However, many nations will face much higher tariffs, from 9 April.
These tariffs include 49% on Cambodian products, 46% on Vietnamese imports and 20% on goods from the EU.
Chinese imports would face a 54% tariff (an extra 34% on top of 20% which had been previously announced).
However, China said in response that it would bring in a 34% retaliatory tariff on US goods. Trump then threatened to introduce a further 50% tariff on China - meaning a 104% tariff on some products. China has vowed to "fight to the end".
White House officials described the higher tariffs - on countries Trump called the "worst offenders" - as "reciprocal".
Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers such as regulations.
However, this is not what has happened for all of the countries on the list.
Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US's goods trade deficit with each country.
Some countries, including the UK, have had tariffs applied even though they buy more from the US than they sell to it.
Trump had also previously announced 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. However, he then announced some exemptions and delays.
He has also brought in 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, and foreign-made cars. A 25% tariff on car parts is due to start at a later date.
Will prices go up for US consumers?
Many economists expect tariffs to push up prices across a range of imported goods, as firms pass on some or all of their increased costs.
The products affected could include everything from clothing to coffee and alcohol to electronics.
Some firms may also decide to import fewer foreign goods, which could make those which are available more expensive.
The price of goods manufactured in the US using imported components may also rise.
For example, car parts typically cross the US, Mexican and Canadian borders multiple times before a vehicle is completely assembled.
Car prices had already been expected to increase as a result of earlier tariffs.
The cost of a car made using parts from Mexico and Canada alone could rise by $4,000-$10,000 (£3,035 - £7,588) depending on the vehicle, according to analysts at the Anderson Economic Group.
The measures could also damage the US economy.
The chance of a recession rose to 50% after Trump's announcement on new tariffs, according to former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Ken Rogoff.
Trump's top officials have repeatedly played down recession fears, and insisted that the tariffs would be implemented as planned.
What has happened to stock markets?
Trump's tariffs announcement has caused volatility on global stock markets.
Stock markets are where firms sell shares in their business. They reflect the best guess of what every company in the world is worth and what their future profits will be.
Share prices have been hit because investors think the new tariffs will increase costs and reduce profits.
Many people are affected by stock market falls - even if they don't invest in shares directly - because of the knock-on effect on pensions, jobs and interest rates.
How will Trump's tariffs affect the UK?
The UK exported around £58bn of goods to the US in 2024, mainly cars, machinery and pharmaceuticals.
It was already due to be affected by the earlier tariffs targeting steel, aluminium and car imports.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said "clearly there will be an economic impact" from the 10% tariff. However, he said US-UK trade talks are ongoing, and that he will "fight for the best deal for Britain".
The UK government has so far not announced any taxes on US imports. However, it is drawing up a list of US products it could hit with retaliatory tariffs.
Following the announcement of tariffs, car maker Jaguar Land Rover said it would "pause" all shipments to the US as it worked to "address the new trading terms".
Economists have warned US tariffs could knock the UK's economy off course and make it harder for the government to hit its borrowing rules.
How have other countries responded to Trump's tariffs?
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen warned that "the consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe".
Canada has announced a 25% tariffs on some US vehicles, with a start date to be confirmed.
Italy's Giorgia Meloni - a Trump ally - said the reciprocal tariffs were "wrong" but that she would work towards a deal with the US to "prevent a trade war".
In the Republic of Ireland, Micheál Martin said there was "no justification" for "deeply regrettable" tariffs which benefitted "no-one".
Australia's Anthony Albanese said "this is not the act of a friend".
South Korea's acting president Han Duck-Soo said "the global trade war has become a reality".
Japan said its 24% levy was "extremely regrettable" and could violate World Trade Organization and US-Japan agreements.
請至原網頁查看美國對世界各國/各地區所徵收新關稅的稅率表 Source: White House / US Census Bureau • Includes all countries and territories listed as affected by the so-called reciprocal tariffs. Imports data for 2024. *Tariffs given for these countries are those on the White House website and are 1% higher than those given by the White House on X.
相關資訊：
Follow live: US markets rally as Trump's treasury secretary calls China tariff escalation a 'big mistake'
'Sometimes you have to take medicine': Trump defends sweeping tariffs
Who are the tariff 'PANICANS' derided as 'weak and stupid' by Trump?
Why this is the biggest change to global trade in 100 years
Trump's tariffs are a longtime goal fulfilled - and his biggest gamble yet
Three things to know about Trump's tariffs announcement
At a glance: Trump's tariffs on China, EU and more
BBC Verify: How were Donald Trump's tariffs calculated?
Americans could pay more for these everyday basics under Trump's new tariffs
Trump has turned his back on the foundation of US economic might
Trump's agenda grapples with political and economic reality
Trump's game of chicken over tariffs leaves world guessing
How does it affect me if share prices fall?
Stocks, tariffs and pensions - your questions answered
Chris Mason: UK relief but not delight at Trump tariffs
Three ways Trump's tariffs might affect you and your money
How PM might tackle impact of Trump tariffs
本文於 2025/04/10 11:44 修改第 1 次
|
|
中、美關稅戰白熱化 -- P. Guo
|
|
|
2025/04/09 15:35 推薦1 |
|
|
|
川普應該在今晚0：00開始實施他的威脅；咱們且拭目以待，看看：「誰先做慫蛋」。
China vows to ‘fight to the end’ if Trump raises tariffs to 104%
Beijing said it will “resolutely” take countermeasures to safeguard its own interests after Trump threatened to impose a new 50% duty on Chinese goods.
Peter Guo, 04/08/25
Unfortunately, this video is not available in your region.
HONG KONG — China said Tuesday it will “fight to the end” if President Donald Trump imposes an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods as many countries rush to negotiate trade with the United States.
If the plan is fully implemented, the total tariffs on goods imported into the United States from China would be as much as 104%. In response, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China “firmly opposes” Trump’s tariff threats, calling its previous countermeasures “entirely justified.”
“If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” the ministry said in a statement Tuesday, adding that Trump’s threat to escalate tariffs on China is a “mistake upon a mistake.”
Trump threatened the new 50% duty on China, effective Wednesday, if Beijing does not withdraw its 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods by Tuesday, which China imposed in retaliation for a 34% levy on Chinese goods the Trump administration announced last week.
“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!” Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social. “Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately.”
Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are scheduled to take effect Thursday.
“I believe the actions of the U.S. side do not reflect a willingness to engage in serious dialogue,” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Tuesday at a regular briefing in Beijing.
The U.S. should “adopt an attitude of equality, respect and reciprocity” if it “truly wants to negotiate,” Lin said.
The Commerce Ministry urged the United States to cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China and resolve trade disputes through dialogue.
“Pressure and threats are not the correct way to deal with China,” it said. “China reiterates that there are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism leads nowhere.”
“China will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own interests,” it added.
Stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong rose Tuesday as Beijing scrambles to stabilize its markets amid panic over Trump’s tariffs, with Chinese state-backed funds pledging to buy local stocks.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong had climbed about 1.5% at the close of trading on Tuesday, a day after its biggest single-day decline in nearly three decades following China’s tariff retaliation against the U.S. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index closed up 1.7% after plummeting 7% on Monday.
State money is “more like a short-term stabilization gesture,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Natixis in Hong Kong. But it’s “unrealistic,” he said, to expect China to inject state-owned funds into its stock market indefinitely if the trade war with the U.S. escalates.
China will hit back at Trump with the same 50% duties if he proceeds with his threat, said Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.
“If Trump wants to take you to hell, you take him with you,” Xie said of China’s possible response in a phone interview Tuesday.
Xie said he thinks Beijing has concluded that compromise will only lead to more pressure from Trump. “China cannot back down anymore,” he said.
Trump’s 50% tariff threat doesn’t make a lot of difference, Xie added, as Chinese goods already face more than 70% in U.S. duties accumulated since Trump’s first term.
China has decreased its dependence on the American market, with its exports to the U.S. dropping to 14.7% in 2024, down from 19.2% in 2018 when Trump started a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, according to the country’s state-run People’s Daily newspaper.
“China [and] the United States will decouple. It’s a matter of time,” Xie said. “You have to bite the bullet.”
Trump said Sunday that China could get a reduction in tariffs if it approves a deal to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations. He confirmed reports that China and the United States had been “pretty close” to a deal over the video-sharing app but that Beijing backed out because of the new 34% U.S. tariff.
“If I gave a little cut in tariffs, they’d approve that deal in 15 minutes, which shows you the power of tariffs,” he told reporters on Air Force One.
However, the president seemed to backtrack on Monday, saying that he is not looking to pause his tariffs on China before they go into effect Wednesday, despite turmoil in the stock market and global economic fears.
本文於 2025/04/09 15:38 修改第 2 次
|
|
中國反擊川普關稅措施一覽 – H. Wu等
|
|
|
2025/04/06 21:42 推薦1 |
|
|
|
China slaps a 34% tax on all US imports in retaliation for Trump's tariffs
HUIZHONG WU, ELAINE KURTENBACH and DIDI TANG, AP, 04/05/25
BANGKOK (AP) — China announced Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all U.S. imports next week, part of a flurry of retaliatory measures to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs that delivered the strongest response yet from Beijing to the American leader's trade war.
The tariffs taking effect Thursday match the rate that Trump this week ordered imposed on Chinese products flowing into the United States. In February and March, Trump slapped two rounds of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, citing allegations of Beijing's role in the fentanyl crisis.
The U.S. stock market plunged Friday following China’s retaliatory moves. They include more export controls on rare earth minerals, which are critical for various technologies, and a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization over what Trump has dubbed reciprocal tariffs.
China also suspended imports of sorghum, poultry and bonemeal from six U.S. companies, added 27 firms to lists of companies facing trade restrictions, and launched an anti-monopoly investigation into DuPont China Group Co., a subsidiary of the multinational chemical giant.
Trump posted Friday on Truth Social: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO.”
Yet he also indicated he could still negotiate with China on the sale of TikTok even after Beijing pressed pause on a deal following the new tariffs. On Friday, he extended the deadline for the social media app to divest from its Chinese parent company, per a federal law, for another 75 days.
“We hope to continue working in Good Faith with China, who I understand are not very happy about our Reciprocal Tariffs,” Trump posted on his social media site. “We look forward to working with TikTok and China to close the Deal.”
China's response to tariffs grows tougher
Beijing’s response is “notably less restrained” than during the recent two rounds of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, and that “likely reflects the Chinese leadership’s diminished hopes for a trade deal with the U.S., at least in the short term,” wrote Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the consultancy Teneo.
He said Beijing's tough response could trigger further escalation, with no sign that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump might meet soon or get on the phone to ease the tensions.
If China’s previous responses were scalpels, this time it drew a sword, said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.
“China’s new tariffs stop short of full-blown trade war, but they mark a clear escalation — matching Trump blow-for-blow and signaling that Xi Jinping won’t sit back under pressure,” Singleton said.
But the escalation also is squeezing out space for diplomacy, he warned.
“The longer this drags, the harder it becomes for either side to deescalate without losing face,” Singleton said.
What China's retaliatory measures look like
In Beijing, the Commerce Ministry said it would impose more export controls on rare earths — materials used in high-tech products such as computer chips and electric vehicle batteries. Included in the list was samarium and its compounds, which are used in aerospace manufacturing and the defense sector. Another element called gadolinium is used in MRI scans.
China's customs administration said it had suspended imports from two U.S. poultry businesses after officials detected furazolidone, a drug banned in China, in shipments from those companies. It said it found high levels of mold in the sorghum and found salmonella in the bonemeal feeds from four other U.S. companies.
The Chinese government said it also added 16 U.S. companies to the export control list, subjecting them to an export ban of dual-use products. Among them are High Point Aerotechnologies, a defense tech company, and Universal Logistics Holding, a publicly traded transportation and logistics company.
An additional 11 U.S. companies were added to the unreliable entity list, including the American drone makers Skydio and BRINC Drones, banning them from import and export activities as well as making new investments in China.
In announcing its WTO lawsuit, the Commerce Ministry said Trump's new tariffs move “seriously violates WTO rules, seriously damages the legitimate rights and interests of WTO members, and seriously undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system and international economic and trade order.”
The ministry called the tariffs “a typical unilateral bullying practice that endangers the stability of the global economic and trade order.”
Beijing's previous tariff moves
In February, in response to Trump's first 10% tariff, China announced a 15% tariff on imports of coal and liquefied natural gas products from the U.S. It separately added a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars.
A month later, Beijing responded to Trump's second round with additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. farm products, including chicken, pork, soy and beef. Experts then said Beijing exercised restraint, leaving room for negotiations with Washington.
By now, dozens of U.S. companies are subject to controls on trade and investment, while many more Chinese companies face similar limits on dealings with U.S. firms.
While friction on the trade front has been heating up, the two sides have maintained military dialogue.
U.S. and Chinese military officials met this week for the first time Trump took office in January to share concerns about military safety on the seas. The talks held Wednesday and Thursday in Shanghai were aimed at minimizing the risk of trouble, both sides said.
Tang reported from Washington.
本文於 2025/04/06 21:44 修改第 1 次
|
|
中、美關稅戰之短兵相接 ---- Stephen McDonell
|
|
|
2025/04/06 14:21 推薦1 |
|
|
|
從這篇分析看，習總的反應可謂「淡定」。
今年二月初中國政府宣佈反制川普關稅的五個措施後，我曾說(該欄2025/02/05)：
看來都是些不痛不癢，虛晃一招的步驟。我可以想到兩個可能：
1. 中國沒有全面開戰的底氣；只能小打小鬧。
2. 中國沒有把「川普關稅」放在眼裏；不但認為它只是小孩子過家家，甚至藉力使力，用價格助長購買國貨的風氣。
這次出手重棒反擊(本欄以後陸續將有相關報導和分析)，可見中國政府不但早已胸有成竹，甚至在「扮豬吃老虎」。
China and US are at each other's throats on tariffs, and neither is backing down
Stephen McDonell, BBC China correspondent, 04/05/25
American companies looking to sell into the huge Chinese market have just taken a big hit. A 34% price increase on all US goods entering the country will knock some out of here altogether.
This is especially bad for US agricultural producers. They already had 10 or 15% tariffs on their produce entering China, in response to the last round of Trump tariffs. Now, if you add 34% on top of that, it is probably pricing most of them out.
Beijing doesn't seem too worried about looking elsewhere for more chicken, pork and sorghum and – at the same time – it knows it is whacking the US president right in his heartland.
Globally, all of this has analysts worried.
The problem is that supply chains have become so international, components in any given product could be sourced from all corners of the planet.
So, when the ripples of economic distress start spreading from country to country, it could have potentially catastrophic consequences for all trade.
Most concerning is that the world's two greatest economies are now at each other's throats with no indication that either is preparing to backdown.
Just take the timing of Beijing's announcement.
The Chinese government revealed its promised "resolute countermeasures" to Trump's latest tariffs in a written statement from the finance ministry at 18:00 local time (10:00 GMT), on a Friday night, which is also a public holiday.
The timing could mean several things.
1. It wanted to somewhat bury the news at home, so as to not spook people too much.
2. It simply made the announcement as soon as its own calibrations had been finalised.
3. Beijing had given up on the hope of using the small window it had before Trump's 54% tariffs on Chinese goods took effect next week to do a deal. So, the government just decided to let it rip.
If it is the last of these reasons, that is pretty bleak news for the global economy because it could mean that a settlement between the world's superpowers could be harder to reach than many had expected.
Another indicator of President Xi's attitude towards President Trump's tariffs can be seen by what he was doing when they were announced.
Elsewhere, governments may have been glued to the television, hoping to avoid the worst from Washington.
Not here.
Xi and the six other members of the Politburo Standing Committee were out planting trees to draw attention to the need to counter deforestation.
It presented a kind of calmness in the face of Trump, giving off a vibe along the lines of: do your best Washington, this is China and we're not interested in your nonsense.
There is still room for the US and China to cut some sort of deal, but the rhetoric does not seem to be heading that way.
Another possible path is for China to increase its trade with other countries – including western nations once seen as close allies of the US – and for these new routes to essentially cut America out of the loop.
Again, this would hurt not only US companies but also US consumers who will already be paying higher prices thanks to Trump's tariffs.
相關訊息：
* Live updates: Markets and reaction to Trump tariffs
* Full list: See all Trump tariffs by country
* Watch: Why Trump's tariffs aren't really reciprocal
本文於 2025/04/06 18:48 修改第 4 次
|
|
|
本城市首頁
看回應文章
等級：8
