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貿易戰2025 – 開欄文
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瀏覽6,947 ｜回應61｜推薦2 |
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川普終於公佈他關稅政策的細節。
雖然不懂經濟學，對貿易和國際貿易更是一無所知。但看著川瘋上蹦下跳，我還是有「代誌大條了！」的常識。他一個人胡搞亂搞還好，找了一群歪瓜裂棗當幕僚，遲早玩垮美國。美國一干政客的自私和多數選民的無知，終於把他們老祖宗近300年攢下的家當敗掉。
眼看他起朱樓，眼看他稱霸王，眼看他樓塌了。只可憐一眾蒼生被拉著墊背；唏噓、憤怒、好笑、感傷、無奈五味兼而有之，是開此欄。
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貿易戰之中、美角力川普先馳得點 -- David Goldman
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Trump’s major China gamble has paid off so far. But Xi still holds trump cards
David Goldman, CNN, 08/12/25
President Donald Trump has placed a massive bet that the United States can take an historically aggressive stance against China, the world’s second-largest economy, and emerge stronger because of it.
Although it remains unclear if the gamble will pay off over the long term, Trump has been riding an incredible winning streak in recent months. The stock market is near record highs, the US economy rebounded in the second quarter and inflation has defied predictions of a surge after Trump put his tariffs in action.
But Chinese leader Xi Jinping is on a winning streak of his own. On Monday, Trump opened the door to sending China faster AI chips after releasing previously blockaded mid-tier chips. And despite America’s tariffs, China has successfully found other markets to sell to, flooding the world with its goods.
That’s because Xi holds a number of trump cards: China remains the world’s biggest exporter of goods, wielding significant power across the world. It also maintains control of nearly the entire supply of the world’s critical rare-earth minerals, necessary for manufacturing electronics and defense equipment crucial to America’s national security and whose export Beijing has been slow-rolling their release, much to US consternation.
And Xi has slow-walked a prize that Trump has long sought: a one-on-one meeting.
Trump’s wins
Trump has played the role of the China bully this year, escalating the tariffs he placed on China in his first term – and continued by former President Joe Biden – to unprecedented levels. He set tariffs on Chinese goods at a minimum of 20% early in his second term, sending them to 145% in the middle of the spring and effectively blockading trade with America’s second-largest trading partner.
In May, negotiators between the two countries brought America’s tariffs on Chinese goods imposed this year way down – to 30%. That felt better to US companies that rely on Chinese goods, even if it remains significantly higher than anything the United States has placed on a major trading partner in nearly a century.
Over the course of the past few months, Trump’s negotiators have secured several concessions from China, including purchases of US soybeans and a halt to antitrust investigations into some large American companies that threatened their ability to do business there.
Those may not be major concessions, but as negotiations have continued, Trump has celebrated the tens of billions of dollars in tariff revenue that have flowed into the US Treasury each month, in large part because of the massive tariffs placed on China.
Meanwhile, inflation has risen only slightly from four-year lows reached earlier this year. Last quarter’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, showed a sharp rebound in growth, even though it was filled with warning signs. Jobs growth has slowed dramatically in recent months, but uncertainty about tariffs has largely eased, and some economists expect businesses to begin hiring again as a result in the coming months.
And Trump’s favorite indicator of success, the US stock market, has been booming, largely ignoring tariffs in favor of relatively strong earnings and a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the next few months.
So Trump has been able to come across as a strong foil to China, which he has labeled a national security threat and key economic competitor, while keeping the US economy from plunging into a recession – at least in the near term. That’s no small feat.
Xi’s counter
Despite Trump’s bluster about China, America’s president has treated Xi with relative leniency compared to the aggression he’s shown toward US allies, including the European Union and Brazil, in recent months. That’s because Xi is playing a very strong hand, too.
China maintains an iron grip on rare-earth minerals used in ultra-strong magnets that are essential components in everything from cars to fighter jets. The United States deems them critical to the defense and industrial sectors, but China controls 90% of the global processing of rare earths. In various rounds of trade negotiations, the United States said it has won concessions that would give any US business that wants rare earths preferential treatment and access, but American companies continue to complain that China isn’t issuing permits quickly enough to satisfy their needs.
In exchange for doling out more rare earths, China has demanded a reduction in US export controls on critical goods – with a particular eye on advanced AI microchips. The Trump administration had drawn a line in the sand on AI chips, barring their delivery to China. But Monday, Trump reversed course, saying Nvidia’s H20 chips that powered China’s earth-shattering Deepseek AI model could flow somewhat freely into China. And he even said he would consider allowing Nvidia to ship a pared down version of its highest-end Blackwell chips, a concession that the White House had previously said was a nonstarter.
Xi has also curried favor with Trump by agreeing to purchase US goods, including soybeans. Meanwhile, China’s economy has kept pace by selling into new markets, including countries in South America and Africa, limiting disruption to its businesses. China’s exports grew at 5.9% in the first half of 2025, the same pace as the first six months of 2024, according to ING. And China’s trade surplus reached $586 billion in the first half, setting a new record for any six-month period.
And Xi has power over something else that Trump truly covets: a meeting. Although Trump has claimed Xi promised to meet a date has not yet been set, and China has yet to confirm.
So Xi is biding his time, leveraging his country’s resources and export dominance. It’s a strong hand to play against a president who has used tariffs to steamroll practically every other foreign leader in his path.
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
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貿易戰之美國底氣分析 -- 網路
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美國為何能靠市場經濟規模大小威脅全世界？-- 來自網路
你可能會覺得不公平：憑甚麼美國可以動不動就用「提高關稅」威脅各國廠商？
為什麼各國企業明明知道他們鴨霸霸道，卻還是趨之若鶩搶進美國市場？
首先一句話 :
美國人的消費能力太強了！
用數據告訴你：不愛存錢喜擴張信用的美國人到底多愛消費
根據去年2024年各國數據消費比較，美國人均消費支出約為 53,000美元，遠高於其他主要經濟體。
比較其他國家舉例：
中國的人均年消費只有約 6,700美元，是美國的八分之一不到。
日本約為 28,000美元，大約是美國的一半，已經很厲害了。
德國約為 34,000美元，但也仍低於美國約36%。
韓國則是約 21,000美元，不到美國的四成。
我們台灣人均年消費則在 18,000美元左右，不到美國的三分之一。
這些數字說明，美國人「花錢的火力」是全球數一數二的。不是別國不努力，而是美國的消費規模太大太驚人，全世界都想搶進這個市場也就不難理解了。
你沒看錯，美國人平均花的錢，是中國的快8倍。這也難怪，全球各大品牌從Apple、LV到無名保養品小品牌，沒打進美國市場就像沒出過國。
二、美國家庭消費結構：買的不是生存，是享受，看看美國人都在花什麼：
美妝保養：美國是全球最大美妝市場，年支出超過 960億美元，平均每個女性每年花超過 3,000美元在保養。
寵物花費：2023年，美國人在寵物上的總花費超過 1360億美元，比某些小國GDP還高。
假期與旅遊：平均美國家庭每年花 超過10,000美元出遊。
影音網路訂閱：訂閱平台(Netflix、Spotify、Amazon Prime)。
運動健身(健身房年費、Lululemon、Peloton)。
外食與咖啡(平均每週至少3次以上外食)。
這些數字不是在生活，而是在享受；許多國民男人、青少年女性在消費文化中建立優質感與自我價值。
三、為什麼各國不得不被迫低頭：
市場規模 = 談判籌碼
當美國政府說：「如果你不讓我有利條件，我就加你關稅」，很多國家或企業竟然就真的低頭，原因很簡單：
出口到美國，可以帶來數十億美元營收；損失美國市場，會拖垮自己國家商業一整條供應鏈。
舉例：
2023年，台灣出口到美國的總值超過 650億美元，其中25%是高科技產品。
韓國最大美妝集團 Amorepacific，光是靠美國市場就佔了超過20%的營收增長。
歐洲精品品牌如LVMH、Hermès，每年超過30%的銷售額都來自北美地區。
這不是生意談判，這是「誰想賣東西，就得先拜碼頭」。
四、世界依賴美國消費：不是怕他，是賺他。
總結一句話：全世界都知道美國難搞，但誰都離不開這個買單王。美國能用關稅強力威脅全世界，不是因為他強硬，而是因為：
1. 全美國民真的很會花錢；
2. 他們人均消費遠高於世界平均；
3.他們的市場一旦關門，你的公司就少了一半收入；
4.你不必喜歡美國，但不能忽視美國市場 !
這就是現實：美國憑一張信用卡，讓全世界乖乖排隊做生意。
所以，不是美國在跩，而是他們的消費習慣，讓他們可以跩。美國人不愛存款的消費強權暴力，可以讓川普可以用關稅吆喝全世界讓美國拿好處 !
他們為了讓自己強大下去，就這樣硬幹！
怎麼辦你就真的只能買單！？
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貿易戰之空中畫餅來皆大歡喜 - Robert A. Rogowsky
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作者在下文中使用了performance 4次，performative一次；這種用法大概套用自奧斯汀博士的概念。依上、下文，它們可譯為「表面工夫」、「唱做俱佳」、或「走個過場」；但不宜了解為「表演」、「表演性的」、或「操演性的」。
請參考本欄2025/08/05、2025/07/29、和2025/06/20等三篇貼文，以及「川普經濟學」一欄。
The numbers in Trump’s EU trade deal are a joke
Robert A. Rogowsky, opinion contributor, 08/05/25
President Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union last month, proclaiming a “generational modernization of the transatlantic alliance” that will “provide Americans with unprecedented levels of market access” and is “yet another agreement that positions the United States as the world’s preeminent destination for investment, innovation, and advanced manufacturing.”
The EU has been criticized heavily for folding to Trump. However, after many years of studying, practicing and teaching negotiations, I am not nearly so critical of the European strategy.
Negotiating with Trump inevitably leads to three possible tactics: ignoring, retaliating or capitulating. Everyone goes for one or more of these tactics. But most have ended up at the last one, capitulating. The U.K. (like Columbia University, and perhaps soon Harvard) was much derided when it pioneered the capitulation strategy in May. But it is not necessarily a bad strategy when confronted by Trump.
Alan Beattie of the Financial Times perceptively notes that “Trump likes deals that aren’t worth the handshake they’re written on.” “Roll with the punch,” he suggests, “get the lowest baseline tariff you can, offer him some concessions with good optics but low impact, talk up the importance of the deal for the benefit of his ego and hope he moves on.” And so the EU has done.
The U.S.-EU trade “agreement” is apocryphal. Others have called it delusional. It is both — and thus important to understand.
First, some context. In 2015, roughly the end of the Bretton Woods era for trade, the average weighted U.S. tariff against all goods was about 1.7 percent. Against EU goods it was 1.47 percent, versus 1.35 percent on U.S. goods into the EU. America currently imports more than $605 billion a year in goods from the EU. Trump’s “biggest deal ever made,” with a few exceptions, “reduces” tariffs to 15 percent (steel and aluminum remain at 50 percent).
However, it is not technically a deal. It is filled with numerous “commitments” such as “work to address” and “intend to work together,” or “intend to address” and, curiously, “take complementary actions to address.” This is the type of language used in a preliminary phase of a framework agreement, which would be the precursor to a serious trade negotiation.
The White House is claiming that, first, that the EU will invest $600 billion directly in the U.S. during Trump’s term (three times the rate it has invested in the past). This is, if not delusional, at least fantastical.
The second concrete claim by the White House is that “the EU will double down on America as the Energy Superpower by purchasing $750 billion of U.S. energy exports through 2028.”
As Clyde Russell shows clearly in Reuters, these numbers simply do not make sense. But then, they need not. They serve their performative purpose well enough. Chalk up a specious victory and move on.
Consider that in 2024, the EU imported 573 million barrels of crude oil from the U.S., which is valued currently at about $40.1 billion. The EU imported U.S. liquified natural gas in 2024 worth about $21.78 billion and bought about $2.67 billion in U.S. coal. So EU energy imports (at $64.55 billion) are about 26 percent of the $250 billion the EU is supposed to spend on American energy each year under the framework agreement.
If the EU reaches the $250 billion a year goal, U.S. imports would account for 85 percent of its total spending on those energy commodities. While this appears to be a plus for U.S. producers, it would massively disrupt global energy markets (not to mention violate many long-term supply contracts).
But more startling, it would exceed total current U.S. exports. Putting together the value of U.S. exports for all three energy commodities totals $165.8 billion, Russell calculates, “meaning that even if the EU bought the entire volume it would still fall well short of the $250 billion.”
Including nuclear adds a few billion dollars at best. Expanding to refined products, such as diesel? Perhaps another $10 billion.
So the EU’s commitment to buy $250 billion worth of American energy is entirely unrealistic and unachievable. “The smart people in the room must know this,” Russell writes, so “why agree to what is obviously a ridiculous number?”
The only answer is the obvious one, and the most troubling. Substance doesn’t matter, only performance.
Where businesses must operate on substance and factual reality, politicians operate increasingly on attention-gaining performance. This may explain why Trump has done so poorly in business and so well in politics (and in the businesses he is generating based on politics).
So, despite substantive criticisms of the EU team, they in fact made a perfectly understandable agreement. Specifically, when only attention matters and the substance of the deal is a mere side story of the performance, one can agree to almost anything. In this case, the more fantastical the better.
Why didn’t EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promise $900 billion? Trump would be even happier and Europe even less likely to uphold the “agreement.” Smile, suck-up, sign, shrug and move on. The real negotiation is somewhere down the road; perhaps tomorrow afternoon. Well, maybe. Trump’s authority even to make such a deal is still being litigated.
The one unavoidable fact is that America has abandoned the rules-based trading system it carefully built over three-quarters of a century. It is a brave new world of U.S. trade “agreements” based on rapid-fire, plainly meaningless commitments — but what a performance!
Robert A. Rogowsky is professor of trade and diplomacy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is a former chief economist and director of operations at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
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貿易戰之勒索黑幫對矇混老千 - Alan Rappeport
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自以為佔了便宜還賣乖的川痞，其實是個地球級凱子(傻B？)。胡子曰：「國際政治者，天下一大騙之謂乎？」
請參考：本欄2025/07/29和2025/06/20兩篇貼文。
Trump’s Demand to Trading Partners: Pledge Money or Get Higher Tariffs
President Trump is using an “Art of the Deal” approach to get other nations to hand over cash to lower their tariffs.
Alan Rappeport, Reporting from Washington, 08/04/25
President Trump’s tariff threats have turned into a play for cold, hard cash as he tries to leverage U.S. economic power to cajole other nations to make multibillion-dollar investments in order to maintain access to America’s market.
The president’s second-term trade agenda has clear echoes of his “Art of the Deal” approach, essentially demanding that trading partners show him the money in the form of investment pledges or else face astronomically high tariffs.
The financial promises give Mr. Trump the opportunity to flex his negotiating prowess in relatable terms and show off the splashy sums he is pulling into America, adding to the reality show intrigue of his trade agenda. As the Trump administration races to reach trade deals with dozens of countries ahead of a Thursday deadline, he has embraced a strategy that goes beyond opening international markets and reducing the U.S. trade deficit.
The tactic was on display last week as Mr. Trump and his team rolled out a blitz of new trade agreements before a self-imposed Aug. 1 deadline.
“South Korea is right now at a 25% Tariff, but they have an offer to buy down those Tariffs,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Wednesday. “I will be interested in hearing what that offer is.”
The next day, Mr. Trump agreed to impose a tariff of 15 percent on imports from South Korea. The lower rate came after South Korea agreed to make $350 billion in investments in the United States and purchase $100 billion of liquefied natural gas.
South Korea is not the only country to make such pledges. Japan said it would establish a $550 billion fund for investments in the United States. The European Union indicated that its companies were poised to invest at least $600 billion.
To trade experts, the commitments raise the question of whether Mr. Trump is negotiating with trading partners or trade hostages.
“This is no doubt a global shakedown of sorts,” said Scott Lincicome, the vice president of general economics at the right-leaning Cato Institute. “The fact is that Trump is using U.S. tariff policy to effectively force these terms upon less-than-willing participants.”
But the vague nature of these informal commitments suggests that other nations might also be looking for creative ways to escape Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
Although tariffs are relatively straightforward to enforce, investment and purchase commitments are not as easily policed. The European Union, for instance, does not have the authority to dictate the type of investments that it has promised, and much of Japan’s pledged investments are coming in the form of loans.
The investment announcements have also spurred confusion and lacked the usual detail that would accompany such pacts to avoid future disputes.
A large majority of the $350 billion South Korean investment would take the form of loans and loan guarantees. South Korean officials expressed confusion over what U.S. officials meant when they said 90 percent of the profits from the investments would go to the American people.
A fact sheet announcing the European Union’s plans allowed for some wiggle room when it said that “E.U. companies have expressed interest in investing at least $600 billion” in “various sectors in the U.S.”
“I think there remain a lot of questions, including by the countries who have announced commitments, as to what those commitments actually really mean,” said Michael Froman, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who served as the top trade negotiator in the Obama administration. “Is it enforceable? If they don’t deliver a certain amount of investment over a particular period of time, do tariffs go back into place?”
During Mr. Trump’s first term, the trade deal he struck with China included extensive commitments for Chinese purchases of American farm products that were never met. The agreement did have an enforcement mechanism, but it proved toothless.
Some of the initial investment pledges appear to be too big to be true. New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that in 2024, foreign spending to acquire, start or expand U.S. businesses totaled $151 billion — a small fraction of the new commitments being announced. The $600 billion E.U. investment commitment matches the total value of the goods that the United States imported from Europe last year.
Although the United States has long been a magnet for foreign investment, the longer-term effects of making countries invest under duress are not clear.
“This is the kind of deal you’d more expect to see from an emerging market that can’t attract capital on its merits,” said Aaron Bartnick, who worked in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy during the Biden administration. “And we may find over time that if the United States insists on acting like an emerging market, our trade partners may start treating us accordingly, with more onerous terms and less favorable rates that American companies and consumers are not accustomed to dealing with.”
Regardless of the economic implications, Mr. Trump’s tactics show no signs of abating, as he regularly claims more than $10 trillion — and climbing — in investments from foreign companies and countries.
Daniel Ames, a professor at Columbia Business School who teaches negotiation strategy, said that Mr. Trump’s approach to trade deals appears to be drawn directly from his days as a developer and businessman. Mr. Trump became notorious for destabilizing his negotiating counterparts with severely low bids, dazzling sales pitches and an ability to capitalize on weakness to gain leverage.
Mr. Ames noted, however, that countries like Japan, South Korea and the European Union might also be playing into Mr. Trump’s sense of vanity when they unveil whopping investment promises that might ultimately be hollow.
“Donald Trump is a gifted storyteller, and I think when his counterparts recognize this, they can play to it,” Mr. Ames said. “If you’re negotiating with a narcissist, you look for ways to make them feel like they’ve won.”
Ana Swanson contributed reporting.
Alan Rappeport is an economic policy reporter for The Times, based in Washington. He covers the Treasury Department and writes about taxes, trade and fiscal matters.
Our economics reporters — based in New York, London, Brussels, Berlin, Hong Kong and Seoul — are digging into every aspect of the tariffs causing global turmoil. They are joined by dozens of reporters writing about the effects on everyday people.
Here’s our latest reporting on tariffs and economic policy.
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貿易戰之美國關稅謎底揭曉 -- Ben Werschkul
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台灣貨物入美關稅為20%。
Trump hikes tariffs on Canada to 35%, announces rates from 10% to 40% for dozens of countries
Ben Werschkul, Washington Correspondent, 08/01/25
The White House took a step forward with President Trump’s plan to remake the trade landscape by releasing new details Thursday evening that included a raft of new tariff rates, now formally authorized by executive order, which set levels from 10% to 40% on nearly every global trading partner.
The move represents a giant shakeup in the US's trade order, outlining a 35% tariff on Canada (up from 25% currently) as well as rates above 30% on nations from South Africa to Switzerland.
But there's a last minute catch, as nearly all these new rates (except for Canada's) will not go into effect for seven days, instead of a midnight Friday deadline Trump had previously set.
"These modifications shall be effective ... on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time 7 days after the date of this order," reads the now signed order.
The new tariff rate on Canada is under a different order focused on illicit drugs and and will take effect Friday, as originally planned.
For other nations, the order also allows for an additional delay, with lower, previous rates applied to goods that are loaded onto ships before Aug. 7 that then enter the United States before Oct. 5.
But once the new tariffs are in effect, they will be far-reaching.
India, after initial high hopes for a deal that have bogged down in recent weeks, is set to face a 25% rate, though negotiators there now appear to have another week to make offers.
Taiwan is another top US trading partner and is set to see a 20% rate.
The White House documentation released Thursday also confirmed some of the parameters of recent deals with other top trading partners, including a 15% rate on the European Union, South Korea, and Japan.
It also confirmed that 19%-20% rates are in the offing for a range of Southeast Asian nations and an unchanged 10% rate is set for the United Kingdom.
Thursday’s advancement did come after one significant delay Thursday, with a 90-day pause on new tariffs on Mexico, as the president decided to keep rates at 25% after a “very successful” phone call, according to Trump.
Dozens of other smaller trading partners saw their tariff rates upped to 15% from 10%, with some nations not included in Tuesday’s release.
Those excluded countries included many nations with which the US currently has a trade surplus. They are set to see their rates remain at 10%, in a surprise for some after comments from Trump in recent days suggested 15% would be his new minimum.
Thursday’s order also includes a focus on the growing issue of transshipping, promising an additional tariff of 40 percent for any goods deemed “to have been transshipped to evade applicable duties” without providing a further definition on what would meet that standard.
Thursday’s announcement comes as previously announced 50% levies on copper are also set to go into effect at midnight as well alongside the new Canadian duties.
The White House also has plans for 50% tariffs on Brazil which are set to be in fully in effect one day sooner — as that order is operating under its own seven-day clock that began Wednesday.
The rapid-fire tariff moves also came as small business importers and the US Justice Department clashed Thursday over whether Trump even has the authority to take these actions.
Trump’s team relied on the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act to move around the rates, saying it authorizes the president to “regulate” international commerce after declaring a national emergency.
It’s also the latest culmination of Trump’s intense second term focus on tariffs. He declared "I am a tariff man" back in 2018 but has gone much further in his second term.
The latest calculations from the Yale Budget Lab found that these new duties, before Thursday’s adjustments, suggested consumers already face an overall effective tariff rate of 18.4%, which is the highest rate since 1933.
That figure is sure to rise in the coming days as the new tariff levels are digested.
The duties — as Trump himself notes almost every day — have also already set multiple new tariff revenues records even at the previous levels centered around a 10% floor for tariffs.
As Trump put it on Thursday, “Tariffs are making America GREAT & RICH Again” adding that lower levels seen in previous decades were hurting America and “now the tide has completely turned.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices
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貿易戰之關稅暗藏股市殺機 -- Sean Williams
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A Hidden Danger Lurks Within President Donald Trump's Tariffs, and It Can Spell Big Trouble for Stocks
Sean Williams, The Motley Fool, 07/27/25
Key Points
* The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have endured an extraordinary ride in 2025, with President Trump's tariff and trade policy being the catalyst.
* Trump's tariff policy comes with a dangerous flaw that threatens corporate profits and the stock market.
* However, long-term investors who can maintain perspective have little to worry about.
* 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index ›
Though volatility is the price of admission to one of the greatest wealth creators on the planet, the stock market swings that investors have endured in 2025 have been extraordinary.
In early April, the iconic S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) lost 10.5% of its value over a two-day period, which marked its fifth-steepest two-day percentage drop in 75 years. This historic volatility also thrust the growth-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) into a bear market for the first time since 2022.
This was followed a week later by the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) logging their largest single-session point gains since their respective inceptions. For only the sixth time since 1950, the S&P 500 has registered a 25% or greater gain in a three-month stretch.
Though an abundance of news has whipsawed Wall Street during this timeline, including quarterly operating results, a U.S. debt downgrade, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the one common link fueling this rollercoaster ride is President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy.
Despite the president's recent announcement of trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, a hidden danger lurking within Trump's tariff and trade policy threatens to sink the stock market.
Donald Trump's tariff announcement and pause roiled and reinvigorated Wall Street
The wild ride for stocks truly began following the close of trading on April 2. This day, commonly referred to as "Liberation Day" by President Trump, is when he initially unveiled the tariff and trade policy that roiled markets. He introduced a base global tariff rate of 10% and set higher "reciprocal tariffs" on dozens of countries that have historically run unfavorable trade imbalances with America. The S&P 500's aforementioned two-day swoon occurred on April 3 and April 4.
On April 9, with the stock market enduring a mini-crash, Donald Trump placed a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries save China. This 90-day pause is what ignited the strongest single-day point gains in the history of the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Following an extension via executive order from President Trump on July 7, this 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will end on Aug. 1.
Aforementioned trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, as well as progress on a possible trade resolution with the European Union, have investors hopeful that this near-term uncertainty can be placed firmly in the back seat sooner rather than later.
But a deeper historical dive into Donald Trump's tariff policies reveals a hidden danger that threatens the very fiber of corporate profits, as well as the health of the U.S. economy.
President Trump's tariffs come with a dangerous flaw
In December, four New York Federal Reserve economists working for Liberty Street Economics published a study ("Do Import Tariffs Protect U.S. Firms?") that examined the various impacts of Trump's China tariffs in 2018-2019 for the U.S. economy and stock market. While some of their findings were expected, one in particular stands out.
For example, one of the least-surprising conclusions was that public companies exposed to Trump's China import tariffs in 2018-2019 performed notably worse on tariff announcement days than businesses with no exposure. Wall Street tends to value transparency and predictability above all else, and the introduction of tariffs removed some of these aspects.
Additionally, the companies that performed poorly during U.S. tariff events had worse future real outcomes, according to the four New York Fed economists. On average, labor productivity, employment, sales, and profits all declined from 2019 to 2021 for businesses with exposure to Trump's China import tariffs. In other words, the implementation of tariffs turned into a sustained headwind for a broad swath of public companies.
But the real devil is in the details -- or in this instance, the lack thereof.
Liberty Street Economics notes that President Trump's tariff policy in 2018-2019 lacked differentiation between output and input tariffs, and this could be a problem, once again.
An output tariff is a duty assigned to a finished product being imported into the U.S. In comparison, an input tariff is a duty placed on a good used to complete the manufacture of a product domestically. Input tariffs can make domestic production pricier and/or less competitive with goods being imported from overseas. This can result in weaker sales, margins, and profits for U.S. businesses, which is precisely what the four economists observed from 2019 to 2021.
While most investors are focused on headline trade deals, they're overlooking potentially crippling input tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper (copper tariffs go into effect on Aug. 1), among other goods. These tariffs run the risk of reigniting the prevailing rate of inflation, weakening corporate earnings, and ultimately sending stocks notably lower.
Time and perspective can trump Trump's tariffs
Although it's possible that Liberation Day 2.0 could spark a new wave of heightened volatility on Wall Street, and input tariffs can weigh on margins and corporate America's profits, there's a big difference between what might happen over the next year or three and where the stock market will be 10 to 20 years from now.
Based solely on historical precedent, vis-à-vis the Liberty Street Economics study, stocks with exposure to Trump's tariff and trade policy (i.e., most public companies) can expect some challenges during his second term in the White House. But this doesn't mean stocks are off-limits for long-term-minded investors capable of taking a step back and looking at the big picture.
A little over two years ago, in June 2023, the analysts at Bespoke Investment Group published a data set that calculated the calendar-day length of every S&P 500 bull and bear market since the beginning of the Great Depression in September 1929. These calculations revealed a night-and-day difference between periods of optimism and pessimism on Wall Street.
The average S&P 500 bear market has endured for 286 calendar days, or roughly 9.5 months, over a nearly 94-year period. On the other side of the coin, the typical bull market stuck around for 1,011 calendar days, or about three months shy of three years. Historically, the stock market spends a disproportionate amount of time growing versus contracting.
Additionally, 14 out of 27 bull markets, including the current bull market when extrapolated to present day, have lasted longer than the lengthiest S&P 500 bear market (630 calendar days), which spanned almost 94 years.
While there's no immediate cure for the uncertainty that Trump's tariff and trade policy brings to the U.S. economy and stocks in the short run, time and perspective have demonstrated that they can trump Trump's tariffs over the long term.
Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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貿易戰之川普又在說謊或吹牛 - M. Yamazaki/T. Kiharam
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此之謂：「騙人者人恆騙之」。此外，歐盟的6千億美元投資也是在給川普畫大餅。
請參考：
* Trump’s Big Trade Deal With Japan Is Already Falling Apart
* Trump’s Japan Trade Deal Raises Fears He Gave Away Too Much
* EU vowed $600B US economy investment from Trump trade deal. Hours later, European bloc admitted it can’t back that promise
* Trump’s EU deal averts disaster. But few are cheering
* Trump Calls It 'The Biggest Deal Ever,' But Critics Are Pointing Out 'Nothing's Been Signed' With The EU — Did The President Score A 'Lowercase Win?'
Japan says profits from US investments in trade deal to be shared according to contributions
Makiko Yamazaki and Tamiyuki Kiharam, 07/25/25
TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan's government said on Friday that profits from a $550 billion investment package agreed in this week's tariff deal with the U.S. would be split between Japan and the U.S. according to the degree of contributions by each side.
The comment from a Japanese government official suggests the investment scheme would involve substantial contributions not just from Japan but also from the U.S. government or companies, though the structure of the scheme remains largely unclear.
The White House said earlier this week the U.S. would retain 90% of the profits from the $550 billion U.S.-bound investment and loans that Japan would make in exchange for lower tariffs on auto and other exports to the U.S.
The official told a briefing that resulting returns will be split 10% for Japan and 90% for the U.S. "based on the respective levels of contribution and risk borne by each side."
Similarly, Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Friday that he understands the U.S. side seeking a 90-10 split of returns as a sign of its commitment to shouldering a large share of the contribution and risk.
"Some people are saying Japan is simply handing over $550 billion, but such claims are completely off the mark," he said.
Akazawa also said the final decision on profit sharing will rest with private-sector companies joining forthcoming investment projects.
According to the Japanese government, the U.S. investment package includes loans and guarantees from state-owned Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI).
A law revision in 2023 has expanded the scope of JBIC, making foreign companies key to Japan's supply chains eligible for loans from the bank.
The investment package will allow Japan to build resilient supply chains in the United States that benefit both countries in sectors key to national security, such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel and shipbuilding.
The U.S. is largely dependent on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co for advanced chip manufacturing currently, raising economic security concerns due to Taiwan's geographic proximity to China.
(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki, Tamiyuki Kihara and Kentaro Sugiyama; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
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貿易戰之美國歐盟關稅協議 -- Sarah Smith
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請參考：
* Italy's Meloni says it's a 'positive' trade deal was reached but needs to see details
* Both sides can claim victory, but devil may be in detail
EU and US agree trade deal, with 15% tariffs for European exports to America
Sarah Smith, BBC North America Editor, 07/28/25
I think it's the biggest deal ever made - Trump
The United States and European Union have reached a trade deal framework, ending a months-long standoff between two of the world's biggest economic partners.
After make-or-break negotiations between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen in Scotland, the pair agreed a US tariff on all EU goods of 15%.
That is half the 30% import tax rate Trump had threatened to implement starting on Friday. He said the 27-member bloc would open its markets to US exporters with zero per cent tariffs on certain products.
Von der Leyen also hailed the deal, saying it would bring stability for both allies, who together account for almost a third of global trade.
Trump has wielded tariffs against major US trade partners in a bid to reorder the global economy and trim the American trade deficit.
As well as the EU, he has struck tariff agreements with the UK, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, although he has not achieved his goal of "90 deals in 90 days".
Sunday's agreement was announced after private talks between Trump and Von der Leyen at his Turnberry golf course in South Ayrshire.
Trump - who is on a five-day visit to Scotland - said following their brief meeting: "We have reached a deal. It's a good deal for everybody."
"It's going to bring us closer together," he added.
Von der Leyen also hailed it as a "huge deal", after "tough negotiations".
Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by $600bn (£446bn), including American military equipment, and spend $750bn on energy.
That investment over the next three years in American liquified natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels would, Von der Leyen said, help reduce European reliance on Russian power sources.
Some goods will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural products. A separate deal on semiconductors may be announced soon.
But a 50% US tariff Trump has implemented on steel and aluminium globally would stay in place, he said.
"I want to thank President Trump personally for his personal commitment and his leadership to achieve this breakthrough," Von der Leyen said.
"He is a tough negotiator, but he is also a dealmaker."
Both sides can paint this agreement as something of a victory.
For the EU, the tariffs could have been worse: it is not as good as the UK's 10% tariff rate, but is the same as the 15% rate that Japan negotiated last week.
For the US it equates to the expectation of roughly $90bn of tariff revenue into government coffers – based on last year's trade figures, plus there's hundreds of billions of dollars of investment now due to come into the US.
One thing is clear: Trump is celebrating after striking the largest trade deal in history.
While there is a lot of upside for the US in this deal, it is less clear what the EU gains.
It was notable that Von der Leyen spoke about "rebalancing" the trading relationship.
Previously the EU has argued the relationship is not out of balance as the EU buys far more services from America than it sells to them.
It sounded as though Von der Leyen was deliberately speaking Trump's language in order to seal the agreement.
It came after the US president finished 18 holes at the Turnberry resort with guests and family, including his son Eric, amid showery conditions.
Trade in goods between the EU and US totalled about $976bn last year. The US imported about $606bn in goods from the EU and exported around $370bn in 2024.
That imbalance, or trade deficit, is a sticking point for Trump. He says trade relationships like this mean the US is "losing".
If he had followed through on tariffs against Europe, import taxes would have been levied on products from Spanish pharmaceuticals to Italian leather, German electronics and French cheese.
The EU had said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on US goods including car parts, Boeing planes and beef.
European leaders cautiously welcomed the deal.
The Irish Prime Minister, the Taoiseach Micheál Martin, noted the fact that tariffs would still be higher than before, making trade "more expensive and more challenging".
Among EU countries, Ireland is the most reliant on the US as an export market.
Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz posted on X that a trade conflict would have hit Germany hard.
"Stable and predictable trade relations with market access benefit everyone on both sides of the Atlantic, businesses and consumers alike," he added.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni welcomed the deal, but said she needed to see the details, Italy's Ansa news agency reported.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer plans his own meeting with Trump at Turnberry on Monday.
The US president will be in Aberdeen on Tuesday, where his family has another golf course and is opening a third next month.
The president and his sons plan to help cut the ribbon on the new fairway.
相關閱讀：
How are trade deals actually negotiated?
They made America's clothing. Now they are getting punished for it
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貿易戰之歐盟計畫以重砲反擊川普關稅 -- Yahoo Finance
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08/01將屆，「川老慫」到時不會又來齣「最後期限」往後推個十幾二十天的戲碼吧(該欄2025/07/08)？
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump strikes deal with Japan, but EU digs in with over $100B counterattack
Yahoo Finance, 07/23/25
The European Union said on Wednesday it plans to hit the US with 30% tariffs on over $100 billion worth of goods in the event the two sides cannot reach a trade deal by Aug. 1.
Bloomberg News reported the European Commission will combine $24 billion in approved tariffs with a proposed $83 billion US goods list into one countermeasure package that would hit everything from American whiskey to cars to Boeing (BA) planes.
As the EU digs in, President Trump announced two more deals and finalized a third, most notably a pact with Japan.
“I just signed the largest deal in history with Japan," Trump said during the meeting. The president said the agreement includes a 15% tariff on imported goods from Japan, and the country will invest $550 billion into the US.
Earlier on Tuesday, Trump said the US had also struck a trade deal with the Philippines, which will see the country's imports face a 19% tariff into the US. Trump said US exports will face no import tax in the Philippines as part of the deal.
The White House also unveiled new details of a confirmed trade agreement with Indonesia too. Yahoo Finance's Ben Werschkul reported that a 19% tariff will apply to Indonesian goods, as well as a 40% rate on any “transhipped” goods. US officials said no tax would apply to "99%" of US imports.
The deal developments come as prospects for larger pacts with India, the EU, and Canada look increasingly in doubt. Trump has threatened 25% to 35% tariffs on those larger trade partners.
Trump has also said he would soon send letters to over 150 smaller US trade partners, setting blanket tariff rates for that large group. Trump has already sent letters to over 20 trade partners outlining tariffs on goods imported from their countries.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday said he expected many deals to take shape over the next several days.
下略 (請至原網頁查看更多貿易戰相關訊息)
Read more:
What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
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貿易戰之美日達成關稅協議 -- Peter Hoskins
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請參考：川普宣布美日敲定協議！日本回應了 美媒指細節恐未定
就時間點來說，有兩個可能：
1) 細節對日本不利；石破茂擔憂會影響參院選情，所以拖到選後公佈。
2) 石破茂希望藉此「成就」來化解逼宮壓力。
Trump announces 'massive' trade deal with Japan
Peter Hoskins - Business reporter, BBC News, 07/23/25
US President Donald Trump says the US has agreed to a "massive" trade deal with Japan, one of the country's largest trading partners.
The plan would result in Japan investing $550bn (£407bn) into the US and paying a 15% reciprocal tariff, Trump said in a post on social media.
He added that Japan would open its economy to US goods, including cars, trucks, rice and certain agricultural products.
Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said in a Facebook post that he had visited the White House, with the hashtag "Mission accomplished". The BBC has contacted the Japanese embassy in Washington for details of the deal.
"I just signed the largest trade deal in history, I think maybe the largest deal in history with Japan," Trump touted at a White House event on Tuesday evening.
"They had their top people here, and we worked on it long and hard. And it's a great deal for everybody. I always say it has to be great for everybody. It's a great deal," he added.
Trump also said that a trade agreement with the European Union would be announced on Wednesday, with more deals due soon.
The BBC has reached out to the White House for details of the trade agreement.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said: "As for what to make of the outcome of the negotiations, I am not able to discuss it until after we carefully examine the details of the negotiations and the agreement."
In a letter sent to Japan this month, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on the country's exports to the US if there wasn't a new trade deal struck before 1 August.
That was one percentage point higher from the 24% rate announced during his so-called Liberation Day on 2 April.
Japanese vehicle imports into the US, like many other countries, are already subject to a 25% tariff.
The April tariffs plan, which included duties on many US trading partners across the globe, were paused for 90 days following worldwide market turmoil. It allowed Tokyo's trade representatives time to negotiate with their counterparts in Washington.
Japan's benchmark share index, the Nikkei 225, was around 2% higher on Wednesday morning in Tokyo.
Shares in motor industry giants - including Toyota, Nissan and Honda - jumped after broadcaster NHK said existing tariffs on Japanese carmakers would be cut.
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The apparent deal comes as Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is under pressure to step down after his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the country's upper house in elections over the weekend.
The LDP had already lost its majority in Japan's more powerful lower house last year.
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