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川普終於公佈他關稅政策的細節

雖然不懂經濟學,對貿易和國際貿易更是一無所知。但看著川瘋上蹦下跳還是有「代誌大條了!」的常識。一個人胡搞亂搞還好,找了一群歪瓜裂棗當幕僚,遲早玩垮美國。美國一干政客的自私和多數選民的無知,終於把他們老祖宗近300年攢下的家當敗掉。

眼看他起朱樓,眼看他稱霸王,眼看他樓塌了。只可憐一眾蒼生被拉著墊背唏噓憤怒、好笑、感傷無奈五味兼而有之,是開此欄。

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貿易戰之美國終將勝出-J. Sor
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在我看來,貝史先生只看數字而忽略其它因素(請參見本欄上一篇分析)存檔備查七月底前後應該可以知道他的判斷正確或偏頗

這篇報導最後一段關於:「中國決定不徵收『醫療商品』附加關稅」的訊息,則值得玩味。示弱、故意示弱、真有需要、還是找個台階給雙方下台?

'We win every time': Why 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass says the US has the upper hand in the trade war

Jennifer Sor, 04/26/25

*  The US will likely outlast China in the trade war, according to 
Kyle Bass.
*  The "Big Short" investor said he believes 
China's economy is feeling more pain from tariffs than the US.
*  He thinks 
trade talks with China are happening, even though China has denied negotiations are taking place.

The US is in a good position to come out on top in its 
trade war with China, according to "The Big Short" investor Kyle Bass.

The investor and Hayman Capital Management founder said he believes the US likely has the upper hand in the trade spat. That's because China's economy looks to be more vulnerable to the impact of tariffs, and the US will likely "outlast" China in any 
negotiations, he told CNBC on Friday.

"In a tit for tat 
trade war, we win, every time. And I mean win, as in, the pain is much greater on their side than it is on our side," Bass said.

Beijing is likely feeling more pain from the tariffs than the US due to the imbalance of trade between the two nations, he said.

The US imports around $440 billion worth of goods each year from China, he said, around 2% of China's GDP, according to data from the Chinese government.

By comparison, China imports around $140 billion worth of goods each year from the US. That amounts to around 0.47% of US GDP, which clocked in at
 $29.7 trillion last year, per the latest update from the Joint Economic Committee.

That suggests China's economy could take a bigger hit if trade between the two nations is disrupted, especially considering China's ongoing economic weakness since coming out of the pandemic.

Bass pointed to the nation's economic slowdown and higher yields in 
China's bond market as signs that investors see greater risk putting money to work in the country.

"They are facing a banking crisis, a 
youth unemployment crisis, a real estate crisis, their 10-year bonds are 160, and they're telling the world they're growing at 5%. It's a complete lie. It's obvious," Bass said. "We are the largest consuming nation in the world. Certainly, we can outlast China."

And while China has denied that 
trade talks with the US are taking place, Bass thinks it's likely that negotiations are underway.

"We are certainly having those conversations. China will never admit that we're having those conversations. It will never admit to being, quote, 'the weak one' in the negotiations," he added. "They are certainly in the worse position in these negotiations."

Trump told reporters on Wednesday that the US and China were "actively" talking, though a spokesperson for Beijing said that "none of that" was true.

On Thursday, a spokesperson from China's Commerce Ministry called on the US to remove all unilateral tariff measures on China "if it truly wanted" to solve the trade conflict between the two countries. The nation, though, walked back some of its tariffs on US imports on Friday, allowing imports of US pharmaceuticals to come into China without being hit with duties.


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貿易戰之中國手握5張好牌 -- Koh Ewe
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Five cards China holds in a trade war with the US

Koh Ewe, BBC News, 04/24/25

A trade war between the world's two biggest economies is now in full swing.

Chinese exports to the US face up to 245% tariffs, and Beijing has hit back with a 125% levy on American imports. Consumers, businesses and markets are braced for more uncertainty as fears of a global recession have heightened.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's government has repeatedly said it is open to dialogue, but warned that, if necessary, it would "fight to the end".

Here's a look at what Beijing has in its arsenal to counter US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

China can take the pain (to a point)

China is the world's second-largest economy, which means it can absorb the impacts of the tariffs better than other smaller countries.

With more than a billion people, it also has a huge domestic market that could take some of the pressure off exporters who are reeling from tariffs.

Beijing is still fumbling with the keys because 
Chinese people are not spending enough. But with a range of incentives, from subsidies for household appliances to "silver trains" for travelling retirees, that could change.

And Trump's tariffs have given the Chinese Communist Party an even stronger impetus to unlock the country's consumer potential.

The leadership may "very well be willing to endure the pain to avoid capitulating to what they believe is US aggression", Mary Lovely, a US-China trade expert at the Peterson Institute in Washington DC, told BBC Newshour earlier this month.

China also has a higher threshold for pain as an authoritarian regime, as it is far less worried about short-term public opinion. There is no election around the corner that will judge its leaders.

Still, unrest is a concern, especially because there is already discontent over an ongoing property crisis and job losses.

The economic uncertainty over tariffs is yet another blow for young people who have only ever known a rising China.

The Party has been appealing to nationalist sentiments to justify its retaliatory tariffs, with state media calling on people to "weather storms together".

President Xi Jinping may be worried but, so far, Beijing has struck a defiant and confident tone. One official assured the country: "The sky will not fall."

China has been investing in the future

China has always been known as the world's factory - but it has been pouring billions into becoming a far more advanced one.

Under Xi, it has been in a race with the US for tech dominance.

It has invested heavily in homegrown tech, from renewables to chips to AI.

Examples include the chatbot DeepSeek, which was 
celebrated as a formidable rival to ChatGPT, and BYD, which beat Tesla last year to become the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) maker. Apple has been losing its prized market share to local competitors such as Huawei and Vivo.

Recently Beijing announced plans to spend more than $1tn over the next decade to support innovation in AI.

US companies have tried to move their supply chains away from China, but they have struggled to find the same scale of infrastructure and skilled labour elsewhere.

Chinese manufacturers at every stage of the supply chain have given the country a decades-long advantage that will take time to replicate.

That unrivalled supply chain expertise and government support have made China a formidable foe in this trade war - in some ways, Beijing has been preparing for this since Trump's previous term.

Lessons from Trump 1.

Ever since Trump tariffs hit Chinese solar panels back in 2018, Beijing sped up its plans for a future beyond a US-led world order.

It has pumped billions into a 
contentious trade and infrastructure programme, better known as the Belt and Road initiative, to shore up ties with the so-called Global South.

The expansion of trade with South East Asia, Latin America and Africa comes as China tries to wean itself off the US.

American farmers once supplied 40% of China's soybean imports - that figure now hovers at 20%. After the last trade war, Beijing ramped up soy cultivation at home and bought record volumes of the crop from Brazil, which is now its largest soybean supplier.

"The tactic kills two birds with one stone. It deprives America's farm belt of a once‑captive market and burnishes China's food security credentials," says Marina Yue Zhang, associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney's Australia-China Relations Institute.

The US is no longer China's biggest export market: that spot now belongs to South East Asia. In fact China was the largest trading partner for 60 countries in 2023 - nearly twice as many as the US. The world's biggest exporter, it made a record surplus of $1tn at the end of 2024.

That doesn't mean the US, the world's biggest economy, is not a crucial trading partner for China. But it does mean it's not going to be easy for Washington to back China into a corner.

Following reports that the White House will use bilateral trade negotiations to isolate China, Beijing has warned countries against 
"reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests".

That would be an 
impossible choice for much of the world.

"We can't choose, and we will never choose [between China and the US]," Malaysia's trade minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz told the BBC last week.

China now knows when Trump will blink

Trump held firm as stocks plummeted following his sweeping tariffs announcement in early April, likening his staggering levies to "medicine".

But he made a U-turn, pausing most of those tariffs for 90 days after a sharp sell-off in US government bonds. Also known as Treasuries, these have long been seen as a safe investment. But the trade war has shaken confidence in the assets.

Trump has since hinted at a de-escalation in trade tensions with China, saying that the tariffs on Chinese goods will "come down substantially, but it won't be zero".

So, experts point out, Beijing now knows that the bond market can rattle Trump.

China also holds $700bn in US government bonds. Japan, a staunch American ally, is the only non-US holder to own more than that.

Some argue that this gives Beijing leverage: Chinese media has regularly floated the idea of selling or withholding purchases of US bonds as a "weapon".

But experts warn that China will not emerge unscathed from such a situation.

Rather, it will lead to huge losses for Beijing's investments in the bond market and destabilise the Chinese yuan.

China will only be able to exert pressure with US government bonds "only up to a point", Dr Zhang says. "China holds a bargaining chip, not a financial weapon."

A chokehold on rare earths

What China can weaponise, however, is its near monopoly in extracting and refining rare earths, a range of elements important to advanced tech manufacturing.

China has huge deposits of these, such as dysprosium, which is used in magnets in electric vehicles and wind turbines, and Yttrium, which provides heat-resistant coating for jet engines.

Beijing has already responded to Trump's latest tariffs by restricting exports of seven rare earths, including some that are essential for making AI chips.

China accounts for about 61% of rare earths production and 92% of their refining, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

While Australia, Japan and Vietnam have begun mining for rare earths, it will take years before China can be cut out of the supply chain.

In 2024, China banned the export of another critical mineral, antimony, that is crucial to various manufacturing processes. Its price more than doubled amid a wave of panic buying and a search for alternative suppliers.

The fear is that the same can happen to the rare earths market, which would severely disrupt various industries from electric vehicles to defence.

"Everything you can switch on or off likely runs on rare earths," Thomas Kruemmer, director of Ginger International Trade and Investment, 
told the BBC previously.

"The impact on the US defence industry will be substantial."


相關閱讀

Designed in US, made in China: Why Apple is stuck
Trump's tariffs leave China's neighbours with an impossible choice


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China says no ongoing trade talks with the U.S., calls for canceling ‘unilateral’ tariffs

Evelyn Cheng, 04/24/25

Key Points

*  “At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” said Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong.
*  U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China.
*  “If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem ... it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.

BEIJING — China on Thursday said that there were no ongoing discussions with the U.S. on tariffs, despite indications from the White House this week that there would be some easing in tensions with Beijing.

“At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed.

“If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem ... it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,” He said.

U.S. President 
Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China. The White House earlier this month added 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with duties of its own and increased restrictions on critical minerals exports to the U.S.

The Commerce Ministry’s comments echoed those of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who said on Thursday afternoon that there were no ongoing talks, according to state media.

Both spokespersons held to the official line that China would be willing to talk to the U.S. subject to Beijing being treated as an equal.

“China definitely wants to see the trade war deescalate, as it hurts both economies,” said Yue Su, principal economist, China, at The Economist Intelligence Unit. “However, due to the inconsistency of Trump’s policies and the lack of clarity around what he actually wants, China’s strategy has shifted from focusing on ‘what you need’ to ‘what I need.’ Their request for the U.S. to cancel ‘unilateral’ tariffs reflects that shift.”

China earlier this week 
threatened countermeasures against countries that might make deals with the U.S. at the expense of Beijing’s interests.

“We also need to recognize that this is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for China in terms of U.S.-China relations,” Su said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if China adopts a more hawkish stance if the U.S. continues to escalate tensions.”

Several Wall Street banks have 
cut their China gross domestic product outlook in the last few weeks in light of the tariffs and escalating tensions with the U.S.

The Commerce Ministry on Thursday emphasized government and business efforts to help companies sell goods meant for exports to the Chinese market instead.

“From China’s perspective, any meaningful negotiations will likely require the US to reduce tariffs to the previous 20% or even lower level,” said Jianwei Xu, senior economist for Greater China, at Natixis.

“But for the Trump administration, however, reducing tariffs too far could raise uncomfortable questions: What was the point of the confrontation if we end up back where we started?”

The U.S. is China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis. But in the last several years, Southeast Asia has surpassed the European Union to become
China’s largest trading partner on a regional basis.


相關評論

Trump needs to ‘back off’ from overheated rhetoric: Kurt Campbell
請至原網頁觀看視頻
Trump was warned of empty shelves and financial turmoil from tariffs and firing Powell. His U-turn pushed stocks higher

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貿易戰關稅交易之乏人問津 ---- Eleanor Pringle
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川普的問題

1) 
完全沒有信用
2) 
過於高估美國吃定」其他國家的經濟實力
3) 
沒有一個國家領袖願意冒著做第一個慫包」或「第一個凱子」的風險。如果貿然簽訂「喪權辱國」的貿易協定,而其他國家領袖(稍後)取得較優惠的結果;自己的政治生命就走到頭了。

所以對其它國家來說,「以拖待變」或「等川普先慫」是最佳策略。

Trump had a ‘test case’ for trade negotiations with Japan. The failure to reach a deal now has analysts wondering if any will be signed

Eleanor Pringle, 04/23/25

Despite early White House signals suggesting a trade deal with Japan was imminent, negotiations in Washington, D.C., ended without an agreement, highlighting Japan’s ongoing concerns and reluctance to concede ahead of domestic elections. Conflicting messages from U.S. officials and resistance from global partners like China suggest bilateral trade talks will be protracted, casting doubt on President Trump’s ambitious “90 deals in 90 days” goal.

During the weeks leading up to a visit from Japan’s chief trade negotiator, the White House dropped hints it was closing in on a deal.

Indeed, speculation was rife that the visitor from Tokyo might even secure the “first mover” advantage touted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: winning advantageous terms as the country quickest to agree to a deal with the Trump administration.

And yet Ryosei Akazawa, Japan‘s economic revitalization minister, has gone home without an agreement in place—telling 
local media he had urged the Americans to reconsider their “extremely regrettable” action.

Moreover, Japan’s prime minister 
said only yesterday he still has “grave concerns” about some of the policies announced by the Oval Office.

Additionally, when Bessent meets with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato in Washington, D.C., this week, the topic of boosting the yen is set to come up for discussion. The request is likely to be denied
sources told Reuters.

At odds with White House message

Such resistance from Tokyo is at odds 
with the message coming out of the White House, with President Trump saying “big progress” has been made in talks with Japan.

Likewise Commerce Secretary 
Howard Lutnick said Trump was “totally in the driver’s seat” when it came to tariff negotiations, and that meetings with more than 75 countries trying to cut a deal were “back to back.”

The conflicting messages are leading analysts to wonder how realistic Trump’s 
“90 deals in 90 days” pledge will prove to be.

Investors are losing confidence in the U.S. dollar this week 
precisely because of this fear, wrote Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry, rates strategists at Macquarie, in a note seen by Fortune.

“Many observers, including ourselves, had pointed to Japan as an early test case for an early deal,” the duo said. “And yet, the bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Japan ended without the contours of a deal in place late last week.

“It is not clear which issues remain as stumbling blocks—it could be the U.S.’s demands for access to Japan’s agricultural markets, [Japanese yen] revaluation, higher military spending in Japan, or purchases of U.S. LNG [liquefied natural gas], etc.”

A long and drawn out process

And while America, the world’s largest economy, might be squeezing its allies toward a deal, there are other pressures 
shaping the global response to Trump’s administration.

Notably, China warned yesterday that any countries working against its interests would be punished.

The U.S. is doing precisely that, having ramped up a series of tariffs on China to the point of a 145% hike on imports from the nation. To sign a deal with the U.S., therefore, could put any nation at the mercy of retaliation from Beijing.

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests,” 
a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said yesterday. “If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take countermeasures.”

Likewise the Macquarie analysts cite internal pressures on political leaders as a reason not to sign on the dotted line.

“What’s made matters worse is that Japan’s prime minister … is facing upper house elections on July 20 (notably, after the end of the 90-day tariff reprieve). That may be forcing him to avoid seeming conciliatory to the U.S., until the elections are over,” the analysts added.

“In any case, the events surrounding the U.S.-Japan negotiations late last week suggest that there will be at the very least a lengthy period of bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and all of its bilateral partners that may stretch into July, extending the uncertainty about the sides’ willingness to make bilateral concessions.”

Investors might have been naively optimistic that the behemoth work needed to reach a deal would happen almost overnight. Now, Berry and Wizman say, markets may be wiser to settle in for the long haul: “The U.S.’s trading partners may try to run the clock out on Trump, thinking that concessions from the U.S. will be easier to come by as a U.S. slowdown deepens. The process, we expect, will be long and drawn out.” 


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What If China Wins the Trade War?

The United States could still prevail if it does everything right. The problem is that the Trump administration is doing everything wrong.

Rogé Karma, 04/20/25

If Donald Trump were trying to lose his trade war with China, it’s hard to see what he would be doing differently. The president’s gambit is likely to strengthen China’s geopolitical position, embolden Beijing militarily, and diminish both the United States’ global standing and its economy.

Earlier this month, Trump increased tariffs on all goods from China to 145 percent. China, in turn, responded with 125 percent tariffs on American goods, plus more targeted measures. This is a classic trade war: two countries engaged in a tit-for-tat escalation of trade barriers, each with the goal of forcing the other country to back down and, at least in theory, agree to certain concessions.

The Trump administration believes that it has the upper hand in this fight. “We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently 
remarked, “so that is a losing hand for them.” That view has things backwards. The fact that the American economy is hooked on Chinese goods is a massive weakness for the U.S., not an advantage. For many categories of goods, China is not only America’s top supplier but also the world’s dominant supplier, meaning that the U.S. can’t simply get them from other countries. According to data gathered by Jason Miller, a professor at Michigan State University who specializes in supply-chain management, China produces more than 70 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries, air conditioners, and cookware; more than 80 percent of the world’s smartphones, kitchen appliances, and toys; and about 90 percent of the world’s solar panels and processed rare earth minerals, the latter of which are crucial inputs to cars, phones, and several key military technologies.

Pivoting to producing these goods at home would take years, if not decades: It would involve forming new companies, building new factories, creating supply chains from scratch, and training fleets of workers. For it to happen at all, companies would have to be confident that the tariffs would be in place for the long term. China, meanwhile, is only heavily dependent on the U.S. for a small fraction of its imports, and most of those items, such as soybeans and sorghum, can be imported from elsewhere.

Chinese businesses will be hurt by losing access to the American market, but that is an easier problem to solve. China can redirect some of its exports to countries in Europe and East Asia, whose citizens also need phones, toys, and toasters. Beijing could also give money to its own citizens to create more demand for its products at home and provide subsidies to its businesses to help them remain solvent. This asymmetry gives China what the economist Adam Posen
callsescalation dominance”: the ability to inflict disproportionate harm on its economic enemy.

China’s advantage has been bolstered by years of meticulous preparation. Multiple China watchers told me that Trump’s 2018 trade war—in which, at its height, the U.S. 
imposed an average tariff of about 20 percent on Chinese goods—convinced Beijing that it had to be ready to engage in economic combat at a moment’s notice. Since then, China has invested heavily in such industries as energy, agriculture, and semiconductor production to reduce its dependence on American imports, while pursuing a concerted strategy to consume more goods at home and find new non-U.S. export markets. The goal of these efforts, in the words of Chinese President Xi Jinping, is to “ensure the normal operation of the national economy under extreme circumstances.”

Beijing has also built an arsenal of offensive economic weapons. Already, China has responded to Trump’s trade war by 
banning exports of several rare earth minerals, a move intended to produce shortages of both major consumer goods (such as cars and phones) and military equipment (such as submarines and fighter jets); launching antitrust investigations into DuPont and Google; and halting all business with Boeing, America’s top aircraft manufacturer. If the situation escalates further, Beijing might block certain high-profile U.S. companies, such as Apple and Tesla, from doing any business in China at all. Then there’s the nuclear option: China, the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, could quickly sell off a sizable chunk of its $760 billion in U.S. Treasuries, a move that would send interest rates soaring, spook investors, and perhaps even trigger a financial crisis.

“China is ready for this fight,” Yeling Tan, a public-policy professor at Oxford University who focuses on Chinese political economy, told me. “It has been busy preparing for an entrenched economic conflict with the U.S. for a long time.”

Despite all of these challenges, the experts I spoke with agreed that the United States could still defeat China in a trade war if it does everything right. The problem is that the Trump administration is doing everything wrong.

China has some advantages in a head-to-head economic matchup with the U.S., but America has a secret weapon: its friends. If the United States were to join forces with its traditional allies in Europe, North America, and East Asia to collectively cut off China while deepening trade relations with one another, then this bloc could inflict much more damage on China (which would have fewer places to sell its goods) while minimizing its own pain (Chinese imports could be more easily and quickly replaced). This would require considerable planning and preparation. The U.S. and its allies would have to embark on a colossal coordinated economic mobilization to quickly develop new industries, develop a monitoring system for global supply chains staffed with an army of well-trained bureaucrats to prevent cheating, roll out the trade restrictions on a gradual timeline to give businesses and investors time to adjust, and establish clear conditions by which they would be willing to end the trade war. That’s a partial list.

Trump has, of course, done nearly the opposite of everything I just described. Instead of spending years, or even months, investing in American industry, Trump is angling to get rid of the major investments in semiconductor and clean-energy manufacturing implemented under the Biden administration. Instead of engaging in a gradual tariff rollout, the administration jacked up tariffs to 145 percent over the course of a few weeks. Instead of providing businesses and investors with clear guidance, the administration has changed its story by the day, if not the hour. And instead of building a coalition of allies, Trump has spent the past few months threatening, feuding with, and tariffing them. Even if the U.S. were to suddenly change course and try to build an anti-China coalition, a prospect recently floated by Bessent, it is likely too late. What country would sign up for economic hardship for the sake of an “ally” that has not only treated it poorly but has also repeatedly demonstrated that it can’t be trusted to honor any bargain?

The outcome of a trade war is determined not only by the pain inflicted but also by each country’s tolerance for that pain. On that front, the United States has one thing going for it: Voters generally support taking on China. One 
study of Trump’s first-term trade war with China found that voters in places that were most exposed to the effects of import tariffs became more likely to vote for Trump in 2020. A CBS poll in February found that 56 percent of voters supported placing new tariffs on China, even as majorities opposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and Europe.

The question is whether voters’ appetite for punishing China will outweigh the sting of chronic shortages and higher prices. Trump’s first-term tariffs against China were relatively modest, so they didn’t lead to big price increases. This time around, sticker shock will be impossible to ignore. Voters consistently cited inflation as the most important issue in the 2024 election. How will they react when the politician who promised lower prices instead presides over the opposite? According to several recent 
polls, most voters had soured on Trump’s tariffs before they had even gone into effect. Making matters worse, the combination of Chinese retaliation against American exporters and tariff-induced uncertainty facing businesses may also lead to a broader economic slowdown. Many economists warn of a return to 1970s-style stagflation: the toxic combination of soaring prices and rising unemployment.

Even Trump might lack the stubbornness to persist through that level of economic distress. He has already broken the cardinal rule of trade wars—never tell your opponent where your breaking point is—by “pausing” his global reciprocal tariff policy in the face of chaos in the bond market. Even if Trump were willing to withstand the political pressure for longer this time, he’s unlikely to outlast Xi Jinping, who faces neither term limits nor elections. “Beijing is very good at waiting,” Dan Wang, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, told me. “They might not be able to last forever, but they can certainly last longer than a single election cycle.”

In all likelihood, then, Trump will eventually be forced to back down. This might take the form of a deal in which China agrees to largely symbolic concessions that allow Trump to save face. (This is how the first Trump-China trade war de-escalated.) But China might not be so quick to offer Trump an easy way out. In that case, surrender might instead take the form of a series of tariff carve-outs to different industries, to the point where the exceptions exceed the actual tariffs. In either case, the result would be the same: The U.S. would have inflicted considerable economic pain on itself without getting much in return.

China, however, would have gotten quite a bit. Last week, the Spanish government declared its intent to strengthen relations with China. The European Union recently agreed to restart talks to settle a trade dispute over Chinese EV imports and will be sending a delegation to Beijing in July for a summit with Xi. South Korea and Japan recently revealed that they will be reopening negotiations over a long-stalled free-trade agreement with China. This week alone, Vietnam signed dozens of new economic deals with China, and Xi is currently on a tour of Southeast Asia to solidify relations with other countries in the region.

A Chinese trade-war victory would also embolden Beijing in noneconomic matters. China hawks have long insisted that one of the most important deterrents in preventing Chinese aggression, such as invading Taiwan, is the threat of an economic blockade. But if Beijing demonstrates that it can withstand such a barrage, that threat will lose credibility. China will become more likely to take aggressive actions, and American politicians will lose their appetite for using economic coercion to stop it. In that sense, a failed trade war could make the chances of an actual war more likely. You might even say that Trump’s tariff policy sounds a bit like the “disastrous” American military adventures that he has so often criticized. Only this time, he’s the one leading the charge.


相關閱讀

[
Michael Schuman: Why China won’t give in to Trump]
[Rogé Karma: The job market is frozen]


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Beijing warns countries against colluding with US to restrict trade with China

Nectar Gan, CNN, 04/21/25

Beijing has warned its trading partners against succumbing to US pressure to isolate China in President Donald Trump’s tariff war, as part of its carrot-and-stick approach to win over countries caught between the world’s two largest economies.

Commenting on recent media reports about the Trump administration’s plans to pressure countries into restricting trade with China in exchange for exemptions from US tariffs, a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry said on Monday: “Appeasement does not bring peace, and compromise does not earn respect.”

“Seeking temporary self-interest at the expense of others — in exchange for so-called exemptions — is like asking a tiger for its skin. In the end, it will achieve nothing and harm both others and oneself,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests. If such a situation arises, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,” the spokesperson added.

The stern warning comes on the heels of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s charm offensive in Southeast Asia, where he presented China as a reliable partner and staunch defender of global trade – in stark contrast to the tariff whiplash and policy uncertainty of the Trump administration.

Pressure has been piling on countries and businesses alike as they try to thread the needle between the two economic superpowers, which have slapped record tariffs on each other in a swiftly escalating fight that has roiled global markets, disrupted supply chains and stoked recession fears.

On April 9, Trump paused his “reciprocal” tariffs on most nations for 90 days while narrowing the focus of his historic trade war squarely on China, hiking levies on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%. Many countries are hoping to renegotiate the levies with the US before the suspension expires.

In response, China retaliated by raising tariffs on US goods to 125% and adding more American companies on its export control list and unreliable entity list. Beijing also moved to exert pain on key US industries, restricting the number of Hollywood movies shown in the country and 
returning at least two Boeing jets intended for use by Chinese airlines to the US.

With the US and China at each other’s throats on tariffs, neither leader is backing down – and both are looking to build a broad coalition of countries against the other.

The Wall Street Journal 
reported last week that the Trump administration planned to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure US trading partners to limit their dealings with China, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the conversations.

The idea is to extract commitments from US trading partners to isolate China’s economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House, including asking nations to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, prevent Chinese firms from setting up in their territories to avoid US tariffs and not absorb China’s cheap industrial goods into their economies, the WSJ reported.

For its part, China has sought to capitalize on the chaos and uncertainty unleashed by Trump and rally countries to its side.

In his first foreign trip this year, Xi 
visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia last week, signing a barrage of bilateral cooperation agreements and pledging to uphold free and open trade. The three export-reliant economies were hit by US “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 49% before the levies were paused.

Chinese officials have also held calls and talks with counterparts in Japan, South Korea and the European Union to push for closer economic cooperation.

But while countries appear receptive to Beijing’s outreach, they are also wary of being flooded with cheap Chinese goods that are now shut out of the US markets due to the sky-high tariffs – and the risk of provoking Trump for siding with China. Beijing’s own record of economic coercion, aggressive trade practices and assertive military posturing in the region is not helping, either.

Elizabeth Economy, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, said despite China’s overtures, countries are not “jumping at the chance to partner with China.”

“For many of these countries, even when China is a larger trading partner, the United States is often a much larger export market. So they have significant stakes with the US economy as well,” she said.

And even as Xi launches his charm offensive, Beijing is not stopping its military assertiveness in the region, Economy added, citing Chinese live-fire drills in waters near Australia and New Zealand in February, ongoing aggression against Taiwan, the Philippines in the South China Sea and Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

“They’re not stepping back in terms of their security ambitions even as they’re trying to promote themselves as a stabilizing economic force. So I think that charm offensive needs to be more all-embracing if Xi Jinping is actually going to realize the kinds of benefits that I think he wants from what President Trump is doing,” she said.


This story has been updated with additional information.

For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at 
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China’s trade war playbook is coming into focus

J.D. Capelouto, 04/21/25

While China has indicated it’s done hiking tariffs on US imports, at least for now, Beijing’s trade war strategy is evolving: In recent days, China has wielded non-tariff weapons to put pressure on the US economy — and American companies specifically.

China has sent back Boeing jets, restricted Hollywood imports, and suspended exports of a range of critical minerals used in manufacturing. That willingness signals how prepared Beijing feels to not only weather this storm, but also prevail in its influence over global trade, analysts argued.

And there are more tools in Beijing’s toolbox, should leader Xi Jinping choose to ratchet up the fight.

SIGNALS

Beijing’s strategy showcases a new form of retaliation

Sources: Bloomberg, The Washington Post, Financial Times

The case of Boeing — the company’s jets are 
being returned to the US after China reportedly told its airlines to halt deliveries — reflects how American manufacturing can become Beijing’s pawn. America’s aviation industry is in limbo, “with some airline CEOs saying they would defer delivery of planes rather than pay duties,” Reuters reported. China’s critical minerals curbs, meanwhile, could hurt US automakers and medical tech manufacturers; production could halt within months if stockpiles run out, the Financial Times reported. “It’s a form of retaliation where the Chinese government can say ‘OK, we’re not going to go tit-for-tat any more on the tariff rate but… we will incentivise companies to plead with your own home governments to change tariff policy,’” one senior auto executive said.

Trump ‘brought a tariff to a gunfight’

Sources: Nicholas Kristof, The Atlantic

After being caught off-guard by US President Donald Trump’s trade war in 2018, Beijing has shown more preparedness this time, hitting Washington where it hurts and indicating a greater tolerance for pain, several analysts argued. Trump could become “desperate to end the trade conflict,” The New York Times’ Nicholas Kristof wrote, arguing that given Beijing’s use of non-tariff, targeted measures against the US, Trump is “
taking a tariff to a gunfight.” China can still inflict more damage on US firms, by restricting high-profile companies like Tesla from doing business, for example: Given Beijing’s capacity for escalation, it seems increasingly likely that “Trump will eventually be forced to back down,” The Atlantic wrote.

Chinese firms pivot to weather trade war storm

Sources: Financial Times, Peking Ensight

While targeting US firms, Beijing is also moving to insulate its beleaguered domestic economy. Acting under government influence, several Chinese e-commerce giants including Alibaba and JD.com have launched a national campaign to help the country’s exporters switch to domestic sales. Part of the motivation is in nationalism: “A 
sense of anti-US unity has prompted each Chinese company to do whatever it is capable of,” a Beijing-based e-commerce consultant told the Financial Times. But it also fits with Beijing’s broader effort to boost consumption and demand at home after years of sluggish growth, and the firms’ pivot “aligns with this ambition,” China economic newsletter Peking Ensight noted. Still, some firms that cater to foreign customers could struggle to serve a domestic consumer base that remains wary of spending money.

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What are tariffs and why is Trump using them?

Jennifer Clarke, BBC News, 04/08/25

Watch: What is a tariff? The BBC's Adam Fleming explains
請至原網頁觀看視頻

US President Donald Trump has announced sweeping tariffs on goods imported from the rest of the world.

Trump claims that a 10% tariff on all nations and much higher rates of up to 50% on individual countries will boost the US economy and protect jobs.

However, there are warnings that the move could harm the world economy, and push up prices for consumers in the US and around the globe.

What are tariffs and how do they work?

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries.

Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. For example, a 25% tariff on a $10 (£7.59) product would mean an additional $2.50 (£1.90) charge.

Companies that bring the foreign goods into the country have to pay the tax to the government.

Firms can choose to pass on some or all of the cost to customers.

Why is Trump using tariffs?

For decades, Trump has argued that the US should use tariffs to boost its economy.

He says they will encourage US consumers to buy more American-made goods, increase the amount of tax raised and lead to huge levels of investment in the country.

Trump wants to reduce the gap between the value of goods the US buys from other countries and the value of those it sells to them. He argues that America has been taken advantage of by "cheaters" and "pillaged" by foreigners.

The US president has also made other demands alongside tariffs. The first announced during his current term targeted China, Mexico and Canada, after he said he wanted them to do more to stop migrants and illegal drugs reaching the US.

Trump has strongly defended his tariffs announcement but a growing number of influential voices within his Republican Party have joined opposing Democrats and foreign leaders in attacking the measures.

Long-standing Trump ally and Daily Wire co-founder Ben Shapiro said they could be economically catastrophic, and that the messaging behind them had been muddled.
Trump's tariffs are expected to significantly disrupt US car production and put up prices

What are Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs'?

Trump's minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the US was introduced on 5 April.

The UK, Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia are among the countries this applies to.

However, many nations will face much higher tariffs, from 9 April.

These tariffs include 49% on Cambodian products, 46% on Vietnamese imports and 20% on goods from the EU.

Chinese imports would face a 54% tariff (an extra 34% on top of 20% which had been previously announced).

However, China said in response that it would bring in a 34% retaliatory tariff on US goods. Trump then 
threatened to introduce a further 50% tariff on China - meaning a 104% tariff on some products. China has vowed to "fight to the end".

White House officials described the higher tariffs - on countries Trump called the "worst offenders" - as "reciprocal".

Reciprocal would mean they were based on what countries already charge the US in the form of existing tariffs, plus non-tariff barriers such as regulations.

However, this is not what has happened for all of the countries on the list.

Instead the tariff rate was calculated on the basis that it would eliminate the US's goods trade deficit with each country.

Some countries, including the UK, have had tariffs applied even though they buy more from the US than they sell to it.

Trump had also previously announced 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. However, he then announced 
some exemptions and delays.

He has also brought in 25% tariffs on 
all steel and aluminium imports, and foreign-made cars. A 25% tariff on car parts is due to start at a later date.

Will prices go up for US consumers?

Many economists expect tariffs to push up prices across a range of imported goods, as firms pass on some or all of their increased costs.

The products affected could include everything from clothing to coffee and alcohol to electronics.

Some firms may also decide to import fewer foreign goods, which could make those which are available more expensive.

The price of goods manufactured in the US using imported components may also rise.

For example, car parts typically cross the US, Mexican and Canadian borders multiple times before a vehicle is completely assembled.

Car prices had already been expected to increase as a result of earlier tariffs.

The cost of a car made using parts from Mexico and Canada alone could rise by $4,000-$10,000 (£3,035 - £7,588) depending on the vehicle, according to analysts at the Anderson Economic Group.

The measures could also damage the US economy.

The chance of a recession rose to 50% after Trump's announcement on new tariffs, according to former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Ken Rogoff.

Trump's top officials have repeatedly played down recession fears, and insisted that the tariffs would be implemented as planned.

What has happened to stock markets?

Trump's tariffs announcement has caused volatility on global stock markets.

Stock markets are where firms sell shares in their business. They reflect the best guess of what every company in the world is worth and what their future profits will be.

Share prices have been hit because investors think the new tariffs will increase costs and reduce profits.

Many people are affected by stock market falls - even if they don't invest in shares directly - because of the knock-on effect on pensions, jobs and interest rates.

How will Trump's tariffs affect the UK?

The UK exported 
around £58bn of goods to the US in 2024, mainly cars, machinery and pharmaceuticals.

It was already due to be affected by the earlier tariffs targeting steel, aluminium and car imports.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said "clearly there will be an economic impact" from the 10% tariff. However, he said US-UK trade talks are ongoing, and that he will "fight for the best deal for Britain".

The UK government has so far not announced any taxes on US imports. However, it is drawing up a 
list of US products it could hit with retaliatory tariffs.

Following the announcement of tariffs, car maker Jaguar Land Rover said it would "pause" all shipments to the US as it worked to "address the new trading terms".

Economists have warned US tariffs could knock the UK's economy off course and make it harder for the government to hit its borrowing rules.

How have other countries responded to Trump's tariffs?

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen warned that "the consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe".

Canada has announced a 25% tariffs on some US vehicles, with a start date to be confirmed.

Italy's Giorgia Meloni - a Trump ally - said the reciprocal tariffs were "wrong" but that she would work towards a deal with the US to "prevent a trade war".

In the Republic of Ireland, Micheál Martin said there was "no justification" for "deeply regrettable" tariffs which benefitted "no-one".

Australia's Anthony Albanese said "this is not the act of a friend".

South Korea's acting president Han Duck-Soo said "the global trade war has become a reality".

Japan said its 24% levy was "extremely regrettable" and could violate World Trade Organization and US-Japan agreements.

請至原網頁查看美國對世界各國/各地區所徵收新關稅的稅率表 Source: White House / US Census Bureau • Includes all countries and territories listed as affected by the so-called reciprocal tariffs. Imports data for 2024. *Tariffs given for these countries are those on the White House website and are 1% higher than those given by the White House on X.


相關資訊

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China vows to ‘fight to the end’ if Trump raises tariffs to 104%

Beijing said it will “resolutely” take countermeasures to safeguard its own interests after Trump threatened to impose a new 50% duty on Chinese goods.

Peter Guo, 04/08/25

Unfortunately, this video is not available in your region.

HONG KONG — China said Tuesday it will “fight to the end” if President Donald Trump imposes an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods as many countries rush to negotiate trade with the United States.

If the plan is fully implemented, the total tariffs on goods imported into the United States from China would be as much as 104%. In response, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China “firmly opposes” Trump’s tariff threats, calling its previous countermeasures “entirely justified.”

“If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” the ministry said in a statement Tuesday, adding that Trump’s threat to escalate tariffs on China is a “mistake upon a mistake.”

Trump threatened the new 50% duty on China, effective Wednesday, if Beijing does not withdraw its 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods by Tuesday, which China imposed in retaliation for a 34% levy on Chinese goods the Trump administration announced last week.

“Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!” Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social. “Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately.”

Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are scheduled to take effect Thursday.

“I believe the actions of the U.S. side do not reflect a willingness to engage in serious dialogue,” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Tuesday at a regular briefing in Beijing.

The U.S. should “adopt an attitude of equality, respect and reciprocity” if it “truly wants to negotiate,” Lin said.

The Commerce Ministry urged the United States to cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China and resolve trade disputes through dialogue.

“Pressure and threats are not the correct way to deal with China,” it said. “China reiterates that there are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism leads nowhere.”

“China will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own interests,” it added.

Stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong rose Tuesday as Beijing scrambles to stabilize its markets amid panic over Trump’s tariffs, with Chinese state-backed funds pledging to buy local stocks.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong had climbed about 1.5% at the close of trading on Tuesday, a day after its biggest single-day decline in nearly three decades following China’s tariff retaliation against the U.S. China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index closed up 1.7% after plummeting 7% on Monday.

State money is “more like a short-term stabilization gesture,” said Gary Ng, senior economist for Natixis in Hong Kong. But it’s “unrealistic,” he said, to expect China to inject state-owned funds into its stock market indefinitely if the trade war with the U.S. escalates.

China will hit back at Trump with the same 50% duties if he proceeds with his threat, said Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.

“If Trump wants to take you to hell, you take him with you,” Xie said of China’s possible response in a phone interview Tuesday.

Xie said he thinks Beijing has concluded that compromise will only lead to more pressure from Trump. “China cannot back down anymore,” he said.

Trump’s 50% tariff threat doesn’t make a lot of difference, Xie added, as Chinese goods already face more than 70% in U.S. duties accumulated since Trump’s first term.

China has decreased its dependence on the American market, with its exports to the U.S. dropping to 14.7% in 2024, down from 19.2% in 2018 when Trump started a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy, according to the country’s state-run People’s Daily newspaper.

“China [and] the United States will decouple. It’s a matter of time,” Xie said. “You have to bite the bullet.”

Trump said Sunday that China could get a reduction in tariffs if it approves a deal to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations. He confirmed reports that China and the United States had been “pretty close” to a deal over the video-sharing app but that Beijing backed out because of the new 34% U.S. tariff.

“If I gave a little cut in tariffs, they’d approve that deal in 15 minutes, which shows you the power of tariffs,” he told reporters on Air Force One.

However, the president seemed to backtrack on Monday, saying that he is not looking to pause his tariffs on China before they go into effect Wednesday, despite turmoil in the stock market and global economic fears


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China slaps a 34% tax on all US imports in retaliation for Trump's tariffs

HUIZHONG WU, ELAINE KURTENBACH and DIDI TANG, AP, 04/05/25

BANGKOK (AP) — China announced Friday that it will impose a 34% tax on all U.S. imports next week, part of a 
flurry of retaliatory measures to U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs that delivered the strongest response yet from Beijing to the American leader's trade war.

The tariffs taking effect Thursday match 
the rate that Trump this week ordered imposed on Chinese products flowing into the United States. In February and March, Trump slapped two rounds of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, citing allegations of Beijing's role in the fentanyl crisis.

The U.S. stock market 
plunged Friday following China’s retaliatory moves. They include more export controls on rare earth minerals, which are critical for various technologies, and a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization over what Trump has dubbed reciprocal tariffs.

China also suspended imports of sorghum, poultry and bonemeal from six U.S. companies, added 
27 firms to lists of companies facing trade restrictions, and launched an anti-monopoly investigation into DuPont China Group Co., a subsidiary of the multinational chemical giant.

Trump posted Friday on Truth Social: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO.”

Yet he also indicated he could still negotiate with China on the sale of TikTok even after 
Beijing pressed pause on a deal following the new tariffs. On Friday, he extended the deadline for the social media app to divest from its Chinese parent company, per a federal law, for another 75 days.

“We hope to continue working in Good Faith with China, who I understand are not very happy about our Reciprocal Tariffs,” Trump posted on his social media site. “We look forward to working with TikTok and China to close the Deal.”

China's response to tariffs grows tougher

Beijing’s response is “notably less restrained” than during the recent two rounds of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, and that “likely reflects the Chinese leadership’s diminished hopes for a trade deal with the U.S., at least in the short term,” wrote Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the consultancy Teneo.

He said Beijing's tough response could trigger further escalation, with no sign that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump might meet soon or 
get on the phone to ease the tensions.

If China’s previous responses were scalpels, this time it drew a sword, said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

“China’s new tariffs stop short of full-blown trade war, but they mark a clear escalation — matching Trump blow-for-blow and signaling that Xi Jinping won’t sit back under pressure,” Singleton said.

But the escalation also is squeezing out space for diplomacy, he warned.

“The longer this drags, the harder it becomes for either side to deescalate without losing face,” Singleton said.

What China's retaliatory measures look like

In Beijing, the Commerce Ministry said it would impose 
more export controls on rare earths — materials used in high-tech products such as computer chips and electric vehicle batteries. Included in the list was samarium and its compounds, which are used in aerospace manufacturing and the defense sector. Another element called gadolinium is used in MRI scans.

China's customs administration said it had suspended imports from two U.S. poultry businesses after officials detected furazolidone, a drug banned in China, in shipments from those companies. It said it found high levels of mold in the sorghum and found salmonella in the bonemeal feeds from four other U.S. companies.

The Chinese government said it also added 16 U.S. companies to the export control list, subjecting them to an export ban of dual-use products. Among them are High Point Aerotechnologies, a defense tech company, and Universal Logistics Holding, a publicly traded transportation and logistics company.

An additional 11 U.S. companies were added to the unreliable entity list, including the American drone makers Skydio and BRINC Drones, banning them from import and export activities as well as making new investments in China.

In announcing its WTO lawsuit, the Commerce Ministry said Trump's new tariffs move “seriously violates WTO rules, seriously damages the legitimate rights and interests of WTO members, and seriously undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system and international economic and trade order.”

The ministry called the tariffs “a typical unilateral bullying practice that endangers the stability of the global economic and trade order.”

Beijing's previous tariff moves

In February, in response to Trump's first 10% tariff, China announced a 
15% tariff on imports of coal and liquefied natural gas products from the U.S. It separately added a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars.

A month later, 
Beijing responded to Trump's second round with additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. farm products, including chicken, pork, soy and beef. Experts then said Beijing exercised restraint, leaving room for negotiations with Washington.

By now, dozens of U.S. companies are subject to 
controls on trade and investment, while many more Chinese companies face similar limits on dealings with U.S. firms.

While 
friction on the trade front has been heating up, the two sides have maintained military dialogue.

U.S. and Chinese 
military officials met this week for the first time Trump took office in January to share concerns about military safety on the seas. The talks held Wednesday and Thursday in Shanghai were aimed at minimizing the risk of trouble, both sides said.


Tang reported from Washington. 


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