|
何衛東搞失蹤 -- 陳政錄
|
瀏覽2,159 ｜回應7｜推薦2 |
|
|
|
北京例行植樹活動 軍委副主席何衛東仍缺席
特派記者陳政錄，2025-04-03
解放軍連續兩日在台灣周邊展開軍演，值得注意的是，中國大陸國防部晚間發布訊息指，中共中央軍委副主席張又俠昨日上午在北京通州義務植樹。然而，去年也曾出席植樹的另一軍委副主席何衛東、以及遭停職檢查的時任中央軍委委員苗華雙雙缺席。
據大陸國防部微信官方帳號轉載新華社報導，中共中央政治局委員、中央軍委副主席張又俠昨日上午到北京市通州區綠化地塊參加義務植樹活動。參加官員還有中共中央政治局委員兼北京市委書記尹力、中共中央軍委委員劉振立、張升民，以及中共軍委機關各部門、駐京有關單位人員。這是中共中央軍委領導連續第43年集體參加首都(指北京)的義務植樹活動。
值得注意的是，在新華社的報導中，未見中共中央軍委副主席何衛東的身影，他曾在2023年4月7日、去年4月1日，也和張又俠、尹力一起參與了該年度的這一例行性義務植樹活動。除了何衛東，今年缺席的還有時任中共中央軍委委員、軍委政治部主任苗華，苗華去年11月因涉及嚴重違紀，被停職檢查。
對於何衛東在全國「兩會」後傳出被查，國防部發言人吳謙在上月底召開的例行記者會中表示，「沒有這方面的消息，不了解這方面的情況」，與過去國防部長董軍傳出被查時的直接否認不同，受到關注；另對苗華一案，吳謙僅說，「我沒有需要發布的信息(訊息)」。何衛東曾任東部戰區司令，過去被認為是共軍對台軍演要角，但在今年「兩會」後，他與現任東部戰區司令林向陽均傳出被查，惟未獲證實。
本文於 修改第 1 次
|
|
擠牙膏式的軍隊整肅 -- 廖士鋒
|
|
|
推薦1 |
|
|
|
共軍清洗還沒完 陸全國人大 罷免5上將
廖士鋒，聯合報，北京報導，2026-02-27
大陸清查軍隊高層領導仍在持續，大陸全國兩會下周召開前夕，大陸全國人大常委會昨天公告罷免包含前陸軍司令員李橋銘等五名上將、與多名中、少將人大代表職務。先前中共軍方都未官宣這些將領遭到紀檢調查，此次人大職務先被罷免，說明軍隊高層清洗與後續調查將接替展開。
新華社報導，大陸十四屆全國人大常委會第廿一次會議昨天下午在北京人民大會堂閉幕，會議原則通過了全國人大常委會工作報告稿，將由人大委員長趙樂際於下周向人大會議報告。人事上，會議經表決，決定免去應急管理部部長王祥喜職務，免去蔣成華(已轉任商務部國際貿易談判副代表)的人大外事委員會委員職務；任命楊合慶為人大常委會法制工作委員會副主任。同時，也免去共軍軍事法院院長劉少雲(軍階少將)的職務。
在隨後發布的人大常委會公告中，包含前陸軍司令員李橋銘、前海軍司令員沈金龍、前海軍政委秦生祥、前空軍政委于忠福、信息支援部隊政委李偉等上將，以及中央軍委國防動員部政委王東海中將，還有中央軍委政治工作部主任助理邊瑞峰、對台一線部隊七十三集團軍軍長丁來富、火箭軍將領楊光等少將，都被罷免人大代表職務。上述高階將領兼任的人大職位也相應撤銷。
星島日報報導，李橋銘、李偉是中共二十屆中央委員，他們都缺席了去年十月的四中全會。沈金龍、秦生祥、于忠福是退役上將，不是二十屆中央委員，但都是現屆全國人大常委。他們缺席了近幾次全國人大常委會會議。
同遭罷免人大代表的，還有前內蒙古自治區黨委書記孫紹騁、前江蘇省台辦主任練月琴等人。不過先前已落馬的上將張又俠、劉振立，目前尚未被公告罷免。目前大陸十四屆全國人大實有代表二八七八人，較起初的二九七七人下降近百名，其中減少最多的是共軍與武警代表團，達卅八人。
新華社昨還報導，包括中共政治局委員等高級領導幹部，近日就2025年度工作，向中共黨中央和中共總書記習近平述職。習近平稱要「始終頭腦清醒、懷德自重，在篤信、務實、擔當、自律上當表率、作示範」。「認真履行全面從嚴治黨政治責任，一體推進不敢腐、不能腐、不想腐，推動營造風清氣正的政治生態」。
本文於 修改第 1 次
|
|
賭盤：2027年前習近平下台的機率 -- Rounak Jain
|
|
|
推薦1 |
|
|
|
Will Xi Jinping Be Removed Before 2027 Amid Military Purge? Millions Of Dollars Bet On Prediction Markets Say This
Rounak Jain, 02/02/26
China is currently running a purge of its top military leaders amid an aggressive anti-corruption campaign by President Xi Jinping. Several Leaders of the People's Liberation Army are being investigated.
China's Anti-Corruption Purge
China's Defense Ministry on Jan. 24 announced an investigation into Gen. Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, the chief of staff of the commission’s joint staff department, according to a post by China Military.
The two leaders are being investigated for "suspected serious discipline and law violations."
Amid the latest investigation, China's Central Military Commission now consists of two members, down from seven. Out of the two, one is Xi himself, along with Zhang Shengmin, the commission’s anti-graft officer, according to a Business Insider report.
Prediction Market Betting On Xi's Ouster
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin, is currently betting on a contract "Xi Jinping out before 2027?"
Over $5.8 million has been bet on the contract so far.
According to the contract, there is an 8% probability of a "yes" and a 93% probability of a "no".
If Xi is removed before 2027, those who bet on "yes" will win, and if Xi remains in power after 2027, those who bet on "no" will win.
This article Will Xi Jinping Be Removed Before 2027 Amid Military Purge? Millions Of Dollars Bet On Prediction Markets Say This originally appeared on Benzinga.com
Don't Miss:
* Fast Company Calls It a ‘Groundbreaking Step for the Creator Economy' — Investors Can Still Get In at $0.85/Share
* Deloitte's #1 Fastest-Growing Software Company Lets Users Earn Money Just by Scrolling — Accredited Investors Can Still Get In at $0.50/Share.
See Also:
Blue-chip art has historically outpaced the S&P 500 since 1995, and fractional investing is now opening this institutional asset class to everyday investors.
Read Next:
* Wall Street's $12B Real Estate Manager Is Opening Its Doors to Individual Investors — Without the Crowdfunding Middlemen
* Americans With a Financial Plan Can 4X Their Wealth — Get Your Personalized Plan from a CFP Pro
Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market.
Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga:
* APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report
* TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report
本文於 修改第 1 次
|
|
|
|
0. 前言
「張又俠落馬」不但是今年中國開春以來一等一的大事，其影響和意義也上得了國際新聞的頭版頭條。由於《解放軍報》社論和《獨立新聞》的報導/分析兩篇都各有所短(本欄2026/01/26、01/272的貼文)：前者一口陳腔濫調的官話；後者的「分析」部份則「淺薄」到近於「幼稚」，同時有剽竊上述《解放軍報》社論文字之嫌(1)。雖才疏學淺，難當衛正道之重任；然幼承庭訓，亦知破邪說乃要務。提供一些另類觀點；在「歌頌派」意見鋪天蓋地而來之前，給看官們打個預防針。
進入正題前，就中央軍委會最近的結構做個補充：
20屆中央軍委會成員為：主席習近平；副主席張又俠、何衛東；委員李尚福、劉振立、苗華、和張升民等七人(《「二十大」軍委人事分析》2022)。
上開中央軍委會七位成員中，李、苗、何、劉、張(又俠)等五人已先後被整肅。在伴習如伴虎的斑斑前例下，張升民副主席七天晚上要是有三天不做惡夢的話，我把眼前這台筆電紅燒了吃。
1. 動機分析
1.1 「反貪打腐論」的虛妄
首先，我簡單的駁斥習總「整肅風」的「反貪打腐論」。
習總的「反貪腐運動」始於2012中國共產黨18大；到了2022已歷經10年。比這五個更要位高權重，但被拉下馬的官員雖然不多，但也並非寥寥可數。可見習總和黨的各級紀律部門：清除「貪腐」的決心夠硬；調查「貪腐」的手法夠細；打擊「貪腐」的力道夠狠。
問題來了：「前言」中所列舉的李、苗、何、劉、張(又俠)等五位前任中央軍委會副主席和委員，並非前朝遺老，而是2022年上任的習家軍新貴。他們五位既然在上述「反貪腐浪潮」10年洗禮下沒有滅頂，理論上身家應該算得上清白。
在榮登金榜不到四年就陸續爆出醜聞，難道都是因為他們個個「晚節不保」？在統計上這個機率跟中一、兩億元的大樂透相當(這是所謂的比喻筆法，千萬別蹬鼻子上臉的較真)。
或曰，習總為了鞏固領導中心，嘴皮子喊著「反貪打腐」，實踐上卻睜一隻眼，閉一隻眼的破「律」提拔馬仔，任用親信。如果這個理論成立，那過去13年和未來n年，習總在治國？搞黑社會？過家家？
或曰，中共高層就是個貪腐大染缸；這種「良幣淪為劣幣論」，似乎沒有實際統計數字可為旁證。如果有，《大紀元》、《自由時報》、和「西方媒體」。應該早有一系列專題報導。
如果習總2022後這波「整肅風」動機的「反貪打腐論」成立，我還真得要考慮考慮開始燒香、吃素、行善、拜佛了。
1.2 內心深處
從「整肅」的「表面」或「動作層面」看，表現出來是：
「整肅者」應該(好像？)「大權在握」，所以他能夠雷厲風行的為所欲為。
但是，「深入」的看「整肅」或探究它的「動機」，可能了解到：
「整肅者」也許(感覺？)芒刺在背、杯弓蛇影、四面楚歌、甚至於眾叛親離等等(2)，才會坐立不安，風聲鶴唳，如驚弓之鳥般的三月一小整，半年一大肅？
寫詩填詞不論，習主席的統馭模式或操作手法，較之於毛主席倒是不遑多讓；說他「過之而無不及」應該不算阿諛吧。另外一位生前也曾經自行加冕「民族救星」或「不世聖王」這類高帽子的史達林，好像也是一位把這個套路玩得吓吓叫的翹楚。
最後，我不是心理學家；但讀過幾本弗洛伊德的著作。我也不是社會學家；但甚是信奉「社會建構論」。我更是神經科學的門外漢；但略知「大腦神經網路連接論」的一、二。根據我道聽塗說而得知這三門科學的微末，談到「動機」，一定要回溯一個人的成長經驗才有所本。
我不清楚習總當年被下放的經歷；不敢在此妄加評論。如果要深入了解習總處事的模式，我們有必要了解：「文化大革命」在那一代青年腦海中烙下的印記。例如，習總對毛主席的崇拜(迷戀？)是否可以從「斯德哥爾摩症狀」的角度來理解？
2. 「整肅風」的影響
2.1 解放軍
該文就「習近平對解放軍做為一個整體的控制」所做「分析」，只能說是個「表面工作」。針對：「近15年來，大大小小的整肅對解放軍『指揮-統御』結構/功能的影響為何？」這個重要議題，該文作者以及他所引用兩位專家幾乎隻字未提。不亦幼稚乎！
習總這樣「惡整」對解放軍，和延伸而論，對國家最大和最壞的影響：「軍隊保鏢化」或「軍隊打手化」。其它分析都不必多說了。
2.2 統一大業
1) 台海戰爭一旦發生，我看到的隱患是：
如果共軍在3個月內取得勝利；那中國內部自然張燈結綵，皆大歡喜。萬一戰局長期(例如3個月中)陷於膠著，甚至不幸搞個灰頭土臉；「究責」和「找替罪羔羊」是免不了的大、小動作。因此，到了兩個月或兩個半月時，成天提心吊膽、早就心懷不滿的軍頭們，在人人自危的情況下，會不會想到「先下手為強」的拚個魚死網破？
2) 從「攘外必先安內」這個原則看，以上1)小段的分析如果有幾分可信，則結論可能是：
2-a) 5年內「兩岸統一」？「門兒都沒有」！
2-b) (至少對老夫而言)「兩岸統一」？「下輩子吧」！
3. 「整肅風」反映的現實
3.1 隱憂
本來可以泡杯咖啡看這場大戲；不過，這波「整肅風」反映了一些讓人深夜難以入眠的問題：
1) 中南海諸公諸婆之間的山頭有沒有超過4個？
2) 習近平能夠確實掌握的政治局委員有沒有超過60%？
3) 接受中國共產黨(統治)「正當性」的中國老百姓有沒有超過70%？
… 就此打住；我已經滿頭白髮，也剩不了幾根；再想下去怕是要折壽了。
3.2 大歷史
承以上第1.2和3.1兩個小節的分析：
我對「誰上誰下」或誰在中南海發號司令這類議題沒什麼興趣。但是，「亂由鬥起」或「鬥必生亂」；這就關係到國家的長治久安，乃至於人民的生死存亡。它才是我心憂之所在。
3. 結論
3.1 事件本質
不論「人民法院」的黨用法官們未來如何編織定讞罪名；不論華人社會中「三客流」們如何擦脂抹粉(該欄2024/07/07貼文「附註」)，「張又俠事件」是一場赤裸裸的「權力鬥爭」。
3.2 《虞美人》，你爭我鬥何時了
你爭我鬥何時了？冤獄知多少！錦衣昨夜又出動，神州太平富庶春夢中。
黨證勳章應猶在，恐將灰塵埋。問君能有幾多憂？恰似一江汨羅向西流。
後記：
讀了《張又俠落馬》這篇報導後不禁心憂，略誌數語成轉載該文時的「前言」(請見本欄2026/01/26貼文，「前言」則已刪去)。同日看到《獨立新聞》的報導/分析後，不屑之外還有幾分怒火(請見本欄2026/01/27貼文)。四、五百字的短評在我越寫越來氣之下，成了2,000字的中篇(以我目前的功力而言)。於是將上述「前言」併入這篇評論，以求意旨與論述的完整；造成不便，尚請見諒。
附註：
1. 該篇報導引用兩位專家就此事件「動機」和「影響」的「分析」，跟《解放軍報》社論如一個模子刻出來的。如果他們沒有「剽竊」，那就是這兩位專家自告奮勇，兼任中共中央的義務「傳聲筒」(「打『嘴』」？)。
2. 根據《紐約時報》這篇報導：「張又俠將軍曾被認為是習近平最信任的軍方將領」。
本文於 修改第 5 次
|
|
習近平整肅將領與台海局勢 -- E. Eduardo Castillo
|
|
|
推薦1 |
|
|
|
請參考：In Xi’s China, Even the Mightiest General Can Fall
並請參見本欄上一篇和下一篇的貼文。
How China’s leadership purge could raise the military threat for Taiwan
China’s most senior army figures are under investigation – with potential repercussions for the island nation Beijing claims
E. Eduardo Castillo, 01/26/26
China has initiated a sweeping investigation into its most senior military figures, including the army's top general, for alleged "serious violations of discipline and law." This unprecedented move, announced over the weekend, targets individuals considered the highest military members directly beneath President Xi Jinping.
The Defence Ministry confirmed on Saturday that two generals are under scrutiny: General Zhang Youxia (張又俠), the senior of the two vice chairs of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), China's supreme military body, and General Liu Zhenli (劉振立), a lower-ranking member of the commission who heads the military’s Joint Staff Department.
The probe effectively destabilises the entire commission, which is chaired by President Xi, leaving only one of its six members untouched by the ongoing inquiry.
“Xi Jinping has completed one of the biggest purges of China’s military leadership in the history of the People’s Republic,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
For the army and China in general, the full impact of the changes is still unknown. But some experts say the moves also might have repercussions on Beijing's next move on Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own territory.
Here are some elements to understand why Gen. Zhang’s removal is important.
What was behind the latest military purge
The Defence Ministry announced the measures Saturday but provided no details on the alleged wrongdoing. The next day, the People's Liberation Army Daily published an editorial that fell short of explaining the specific reasons, saying only that it was “for suspected serious violations of discipline and law” and showed China's commitment to punish corruption. That is something Xi has pursued since the early days of his presidency.
Rumours have circulated on social media and there have been some media reports about the changes, but nothing official.
"I do not believe any evidence publicly released or selectively leaked by Chinese authorities would necessarily reflect the core reason for Zhang’s removal,” said K. Tristan Tang, nonresident Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum. “The critical point is that Xi Jinping decided to move against Zhang; once an investigation is launched, problems are almost inevitably uncovered.”
Analysts have said the purges are designed to reform the military and ensure loyalty to Xi. They are part of a broader anti-corruption drive that has resulted in punishment for more than 200,000 officials since the Chinese leader came to power in 2012.
Before Zhang and Liu's dismissal, the Communist Party expelled the other vice chair of the commission, He Weidong (何衛東), in October. He was replaced with Zhang Shengmin (張升民), who is now the only commission member.
Since 2012, at least 17 Generals from the People's Liberation Army, or PLA, have been removed from their military positions, among them eight who were former top commission members, according to a review of military statements and state media reports made by The Associated Press.
How a top military change can impact moves on Taiwan
Some think the removals could have repercussions for China's decisions on Taiwan, but it is far from clear.
China considers Taiwan its own territory and has threatened to take control of the island by force if necessary. China also has increased military pressure and, last month, launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan for two days after the U.S. government announced a major arms sales to Taiwan.
Thomas, from the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the latest purge “makes China’s threat toward Taiwan weaker in the short term but stronger in the long term.”
It would make a military escalation against the island riskier in the immediate term because of “a high command in disarray,” but in the long term would mean the army has a more loyal and less corrupt leadership with more military capabilities, he said.
Asked if this might reinforce the idea that removing top military brass might show China is not ready for war, Tang from the Pacific Forum said it "does not fundamentally change that assessment”.
“That said,” he added, “I also do not believe the PLA’s combat readiness has been severely disrupted.”
Military commission's future remains unclear
With the recent changes, the military commission will operate with only one of six members active and Xi at the top as the chair.
The PLA's Daily editorial said that after the actions against Zhang and Liu, the party is moving to “promote the rejuvenation of the People’s Liberation Army, and inject powerful momentum into building a strong military force.”
But it's not clear if the five vacant positions will be replaced soon or if Xi will wait until 2027, when there will be a selection of a new Communist Party Central Committee, the body in charge of also appointing the new military commission members.
Tang, from the Pacific Forum, doesn't see any pressure on Xi to fill the positions in the short term.
“Unless the objective is to create an internal counterweight to Zhang Shengmin," the only current member in the commission, he said.
本文於 修改第 1 次
|
|
張又俠落馬 -- 林則宏
|
|
|
推薦1 |
|
|
|
請參見本欄下兩篇貼文。
張又俠落馬 解放軍報：身分沒有豁免權 功勞不是抵罪券
林則宏，聯合報，2026-01-26 11:07
大陸國防部24日宣布中共中央軍委副主席張又俠、中央軍委聯合參謀部參謀長劉振立涉嫌嚴重違紀違法，遭立案審查調查，中共中央軍委機關報《解放軍報》26日再於頭版發文稱，「人民軍隊不容腐敗玷汙，反腐肅貪的鬥爭必將進行到底」，並強調「身分沒有豁免權，功勞不是抵罪券」，反腐敗絕對不能慈悲，「少數腐敗分子掀不起什麼風浪」。
《解放軍報》這篇題為「永遠吹響『衝鋒號』」的文章特別提及被稱為「共和國反腐第一案」的「劉青山、張子善案」。1951年11月，中共河北省第三次代表會議揭露劉、張罪行。劉青山被捕前任中共石家莊市委副書記，張子善被捕前任中共天津地委書記。兩人後被判處死刑。
文章稱，劉張兩人是歷經土地革命、抗日戰爭、解放戰爭洗禮的「老革命」，因貪汙腐化、蛻化變質，被公審嚴懲。針對此案，毛澤東當年曾表示，「黨紀國法面前，身分沒有豁免權，功勞不是抵罪券，任何人都不能例外！」
《解放軍報》這篇長文除列舉中共黨史數宗反腐案例，並指出進入新時代，中共中央總書記習近平以「得罪千百人、不負十四億」的使命擔當，以「刮骨療毒、壯士斷腕」的堅定決心，將全面從嚴治黨、正風肅紀反腐推向新高度。一批隱藏很深的「老虎」連根拔起，眾多啃食群眾和官兵利益的「蒼蠅」被嚴厲懲處，反腐力度之大、堅決之堅、成效之顯前所未有。
文章甚至提及，幾年前，共軍某部風氣不純，導致部隊戰鬥力受到影響，多次在演習中「掉鏈子」。「去腐越快，隊伍越純；生肌越快，勝戰越近。這種『去腐—生肌—勝戰』的良性循環，讓解放大軍在短短三年內橫掃千軍，推翻國民黨反動統治，迎來新中國的誕生」。
《解放軍報》並重申習近平對中共全黨提出的警示：「面對依然嚴峻複雜的形勢，反腐敗絕對不能回頭、不能鬆懈、不能慈悲，必須永遠吹衝鋒號」「反腐敗鬥爭必須堅定不移，任何猶豫動搖、鬆懈手軟或半途而廢，都將犯顛覆性錯誤」。
文章最後強調，「當前，反腐敗鬥爭越是向縱深推進，越需要我們保持清醒頭腦：反腐是大勢所趨、軍心所向，少數腐敗分子掀不起什麼風浪。如今，黨中央的決心堅定不移，我軍肌體不斷純潔，只要我們堅定信心，一步不停歇、半步不退讓，就一定能取得反腐敗鬥爭的最終勝利，強軍事業就一定能成功。」
本文於 修改第 9 次
|
|
何衛東等9人被開除黨籍、軍籍 -- 謝怡璇
|
|
|
推薦2 |
|
|
|
共軍高層清洗 何衛東、苗華等9人被開除黨籍軍籍
謝怡璇，中央社，2025/10/17
(中央社記者謝怡璇北京17日電) 中共20屆四中全會將於下週召開，中國國防部今天公布，中共中央軍委副主席何衛東、軍委政治工作部前主任苗華等9人涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪，「數額特別巨大」，給予開除黨籍處分。此前中央軍委已給予開除軍籍處分。
央視新聞報導，中國國防部新聞發言人張曉剛17日下午發布消息指，經黨中央、中央軍委批准，中央軍委紀委監委陸續對中央政治局委員、中央軍委副主席何衛東，中央軍委委員、軍委政治工作部前主任苗華，軍委政治工作部前常務副主任何宏軍，軍委聯合作戰指揮中心前常務副主任王秀斌，東部戰區前司令員林向陽、陸軍前政委秦樹桐、海軍前政委袁華智、火箭軍前司令員王厚斌、武警部隊前司令員王春寧9人立案審查調查。
他表示，經查，這9人「嚴重違反黨的紀律，涉嫌嚴重職務犯罪，數額特別巨大，性質極為嚴重，影響極其惡劣」，據相關黨內法規和法律法規，黨中央決定給予9人開除黨籍處分，將涉嫌犯罪問題移送軍事檢察機關依法審查起訴。
張曉剛表示，給予何衛東、苗華、何宏軍、王秀斌、林向陽、秦樹桐、袁華智、王春寧等8名中央委員開除黨籍處分，待召開中央委員會全體會議時予以追認。此前，中央軍委已決定給予以上9人開除軍籍處分。
張曉剛稱，對何衛東、苗華、何宏軍等人的嚴肅查處，再次表明黨中央、中央軍委「將反腐敗鬥爭進行到底的堅定決心」，彰顯軍中絕不允許有腐敗分子藏身之地的鮮明態度。
何衛東是習近平2022年10月破格提拔為中共中央軍委副主席的將領。但自今年3月中國全國「兩會」結束後，他缺席多場中央軍委副主席一般會出席的活動。此後，美國華盛頓時報(Washington Times)、英國金融時報(Financial Times)相繼報導，何衛東可能已經因案被查，引發外界關注。
苗華去年12月涉嫌嚴重違紀被停職檢查，今年4月底被罷免第14屆全國人大代表職務，並於6月被免去中央軍事委員會委員職務。
編輯：楊昇儒，1141017
本文於 修改第 1 次
|
|
何衛東失蹤深度分析-Nectar Gan
|
|
|
推薦1 |
|
|
|
Reading the tree leaves: Why a no-show by China’s No.2 general has speculation running wild
Nectar Gan, CNN, 04/05/25
The Chinese military officials in brown uniforms fan out around rows of young trees, shoveling soil into freshly dug pits. The camera pans to the most senior leaders one by one, in order of rank. But one prominent face is conspicuously absent.
The news segment, aired Wednesday night on China’s state broadcaster, features a tree-planting event in the outskirts of the capital Beijing – an annual springtime tradition for the country’s military leadership spanning more than four decades.
But Gen. He Weidong, the second-highest-ranking uniformed officer in the People’s Liberation Army, was nowhere to be seen. Nor was he named as a participant in a report by the official state news agency.
Gen. He’s absence from the high-profile event has fueled ongoing speculation that the second-ranking vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC) may have become the latest – and most senior – casualty in leader Xi Jinping’s purge of the military’s top ranks.
As Xi’s No.2 general, He shares a long-standing relationship with the Chinese leader, dating back decades to the early days of their careers in the coastal province of Fujian.
Rumors about an investigation against He first surfaced among the Chinese dissident community following China’s annual political meetings last month. The 67-year-old hasn’t appeared in public for three weeks since the closing ceremony of the country’s rubber-stamp legislature on March 11.
The Chinese government has offered little in the way of clearing the air.
When asked about He’s situation at a news briefing on March 27, Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said: “There is no information on this matter, and we are not aware of the situation.”
It is now unclear what has happened to He, who also sits on the Communist Party’s 24-member Politburo.
Three weeks out of the public eye is not unheard of for a top general without a public-facing role and there is always a chance he resurfaces. But his no-show at a well-choreographed annual propaganda event stands out in a political system deeply attuned to the importance of symbolism.
“Clearly the absence of one CMC vice chair is important symbolically,” said James Char, a longtime PLA expert and assistant professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
Similar to the Communist Party Congresses and annual “two sessions” political gatherings, “it’s important for all the major figures that the rest of the world know of to show up to be in the same picture, because it helps to demonstrate the power and – more importantly – the unity of the party,” Char said.
Reading the “tree leaves”
In the opaque world of Chinese politics, observers have long leaned on arcane signals of Communist Party traditions and protocol to interpret what is going on behind the scenes. The discipline, known as “tea-leaf reading,” has become more relevant than ever in Xi’s era as he centralizes power into his own hands and makes the decision-making process even more obscure.
And now, some experts are scouring this week’s events for clues on the fate of one of Xi’s top generals.
The annual ritual began as part of a nationwide tree-planting campaign launched by late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping in late 1981, following devastating floods he blamed on rampant deforestation. It was billed as a patriotic, selfless undertaking in “greening the motherland, building socialism and benefiting future generations.”
The following spring, Deng, then chairman of the CMC, planted the first tree of the campaign, setting a tradition that has since been carried on by successive Chinese leaders and military top brass.
Wednesday marked “the 43rd consecutive year the CMC leadership has collectively participated in the voluntary tree-planting activity in the capital,” said Xinhua, the state news agency.
Since Xi came to power in late 2012, his two vice chairmen on the CMC had led military officers to plant trees without fail every spring – until He’s rare absence on Wednesday.
The first-ranking CMC vice chairman, Gen. Zhang Youxia, attended the event, so did two other generals on the commission, Liu Zhenli and Zhang Shengmin.
The only other uniformed CMC member who did not show up was Adm. Miao Hua, who was suspended under investigation in November for “serious violations of discipline” – a common euphemism for corruption and disloyalty.
“I think He’s absence is quite telling, but again, no one can be absolutely sure,” Char said. “There’s another school of thought, which is He Weidong was involved in the last two weeks with the preparations for the military exercises around Taiwan.”
Starting from Tuesday, combined forces of the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command held surprise exercises around Taiwan for two straight days, testing capabilities to blockade the self-ruling island, simulate strikes on its ports and other critical infrastructure, and launch long-range live-fire strikes.
The commander of the Eastern Theater Command from 2019 to 2022 was He. It was during his tenure that the Eastern Theater Command staged massive military drills and fired missiles around Taiwan in August 2022, in retaliation against then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.
A prolonged absence from public view does not always signal trouble for Chinese officials. Some have resurfaced and resumed their duties. It’s also not uncommon for officials to be taken in for questioning by graft busters to assist investigations into colleagues.
Last November, Defense Minister Dong Jun was reported to be under investigation for corruption by the Financial Times, citing US officials. China’s Defense Ministry dismissed the report as a “sheer fabrication.” Dong reemerged in public a week later. The minister was also seen attending Wednesday’s tree-planting event on the state broadcaster.
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping began his third term in 2022, he stacked the Central Military Commission with six loyalists. Now, one of them has been expelled from the Communist Party for corruption, another was suspended under investigation, and a third missed a high-profile event this week. - Yue Yuewei/Xinhua/Getty ImagesMore 請至原網頁觀看照片
Military purges
After coming to power, Xi consolidated control over the world’s largest military by taking down powerful generals from rival factions and replacing them with allies and loyal proteges.
But a decade on, having structurally overhauled the People’s Liberation Army and stacked its top ranks with his own men, Xi is still knee-deep in his seemingly endless struggle against graft and disloyalty – and is increasingly turning against his own handpicked loyalists.
Since the summer of 2023, more than a dozen high-ranking figures in China’s defense establishment have been ousted in a sweeping purge that focused on the country’s nuclear force and equipment procurement, including two defense ministers promoted to the CMC by Xi.
The ongoing turmoil roiling the senior ranks of the PLA has raised questions over Xi’s ability to end systemic corruption in the military and enhance its combat readiness at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions.
“Recurring purges of the senior-most PLA leaders indicate that Xi Jinping distrusts his officer corps,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the RSIS.
“The constant removal of so many senior officers, as well as the extent of corruption running to the very top undoubtedly has an effect on the PLA’s morale, and likely also its military capabilities,” Thompson added.
But some analysts noted that by this point, the PLA may have well become accustomed to the shake-ups in its high command.
“Leadership purges in the PLA seem to have become normalized to a point that it’s just part and parcel of being the PLA,” said Collin Koh, another research fellow at RSIS.
The Chinese military may have started to grow accustomed to the purges – to a point where it is able to isolate them from its daily operational activities and go on with business as usual, Koh noted.
“It does not necessarily mean that because of the purges, the PLA has started to relent on readiness. These purges might potentially have the effect of reminding the PLA to do their work better – if anything, if you want to escape the purges, then one way to do that is to obey what the party is telling you, which is to be prepared for conflict,” he said.
A close confidant
Like Miao, He is widely believed to have forged close personal ties with Xi during their overlapping years in Fujian, where the future Chinese leader was rising through the ranks as a local official in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Both He and Miao spent most of their early career serving in the former 31st Group Army in Fujian, which became a major power base for Xi. A string of military officers hailing from the 31st Group Army have been fast-tracked for promotion since Xi took power in late 2012.
Gen. He was no exception. In 2013, he was promoted to commander of Jiangsu Military District; less than a year later, he became commander of the Shanghai Garrison. In 2016, he was promoted yet again to command ground forces of the Western Theater Command, which oversees China’s border with India.
He was promoted to full general in 2017, when he became commander of the Eastern Theater Command, responsible for leading any military invasion or blockade of Taiwan.
But the ultimate sign of Xi’s trust in He came at the 20th Party Congress in 2022, when He landed the CMC vice chairmanship – an unusually rapid rise for an official who hadn’t served on the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party.
During that leadership reshuffle, Xi stacked the CMC with six loyalists. If confirmed to be under investigation, He would be the powerful military body’s first sitting vice chairman to be purged by Xi and the third member on the current CMC to fall from grace.
The last time a sitting CMC vice chair was purged was more than three decades ago, when then-Party General Secretary Zhao Ziyang was ousted for sympathizing with student protesters in the 1989 Tiananmen pro-democracy movement.
“What happens finally to He Weidong gives us a window into how the political system in China is being restructured further under Xi Jinping,” Char said, noting the PLA’s reform of its rigid political structure.
“I don’t think anyone in the system now is irreplaceable,” he said. “This is what a political strong man does. He’s ruthless… he’s continuously purging his own ranks to keep his generals on their toes.”
For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
本文於 修改第 1 次
|
|
|
本城市首頁
看回應文章
等級：8
