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中東風雲錄 -- 開欄文：埃及的加薩重建方案 -- Al Jazeera
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下文為本欄開欄文。
埃及的加薩重建方案 -- Al Jazeera
What is Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza?
Arab League endorses Egyptian proposal that provides alternative to US President Trump’s plan to take over Gaza.
Al Jazeera Staff, 03/04/25
Arab states have adopted Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, providing a potential path forward after Israel’s devastating war on the Palestinian enclave.
Egypt unveiled its plan on Tuesday while hosting an Arab League Summit in its capital Cairo.
The plan offers an alternative to United States President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the Gaza Strip be depopulated to “develop” the enclave, under US control, in what critics have called ethnic cleansing. Under the Egyptian plan, Gaza’s Palestinian population would not be forced to leave the territory.
Trump had insisted that Egypt and Jordan take Palestinians forced out of Gaza by his plan, but that was quickly rejected, and the US has signalled that it is open to hearing what an Arab plan for Gaza’s post-war reconstruction would be.
Speaking at the start of the summit, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said that Trump would be able to achieve peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Here’s everything you need to know about the plan, based on Al Jazeera’s own reporting, as well as drafts of the plan reported on by the Reuters news agency and the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram.
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What does the Egyptian plan call for?
The plan consists of three major stages: Interim measures, reconstruction and governance.
The first stage would last about six months, while the next two phases would take place over a combined four to five years.
The aim is to reconstruct Gaza – which Israel has almost completely destroyed – maintain peace and security and reassert the governance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the territory, 17 years after it was kicked out following fighting between Fatah, which dominates the PA, and Hamas.
How does the plan aim to rebuild Gaza?
A six-month interim period would require a committee of Palestinian technocrats – operating under the management of the PA – to clear the rubble from Salah al-Din Street, which is the main north-south highway in the Gaza Strip.
Once the roads are clear, 200,000 temporary housing units would be built to accommodate 1.2 million people and about 60,000 damaged buildings restored.
According to the blueprint, longer-term reconstruction requires an additional four to five years after the interim measures are completed. Over that span, the plan aims to build at least 400,000 permanent homes, as well as rebuilding Gaza’s seaport and international airport.
Gradually, basic provisions such as water, a waste system, telecommunication services and electricity would also be restored.
The plan further calls for the establishment of a Steering and Management Council, which would be a financial fund supporting the interim governing body in Gaza.
In addition, conferences will be held for international donors to provide the necessary funding for reconstruction and long-term development in the Strip.
Who would be in charge of Gaza?
The plan calls for a group of “independent Palestinian technocrats” to manage affairs in Gaza, in effect replacing Hamas.
The technocratic government would be responsible for overseeing humanitarian aid and would pave the way for the PA to administer Gaza, according to el-Sisi.
Speaking at Tuesday’s summit, PA President Mahmoud Abbas said that an election could take place next year if circumstances allowed.
On the security front, Egypt and Jordan have both pledged to train Palestinian police officers and deploy them to Gaza. The two countries have also called on the United Nations Security Council to consider authorising a peacekeeping mission to oversee governance in Gaza until reconstruction is complete.
How much is this going to cost?
Egypt is calling for $53 bn to fund the reconstruction of Gaza, with the money distributed over three phases.
In the first six-month phase it would cost $3bn to clear rubble from Salah al-Din Street, construct temporary housing and restore partially damaged homes.
The second phase would take two years and cost $20bn. The work of rubble removal would continue in this phase, as well as the establishment of utility networks and the building of more housing units.
Phase three would cost $30bn and take two and a half years. It would include completing housing for Gaza’s whole population, establishing the first phase of an industrial zone, building fishing and commercial ports, and building an airport, among other services.
According to the plan, the money will be sourced from a variety of international sources including the UN and international financial organisations as well as foreign and private sector investments.
Is the plan going to work?
There are still a number of variables that could complicate the plan. Perhaps most importantly, it is unclear whether Hamas, Israel or the US will agree to it.
Hamas welcomed the reconstruction plan, and has previously agreed to a technocratic government. But it is less clear if it will accept the return of the PA, which itself would face the perception from its critics that it has returned to Gaza on the back of Israel’s tanks.
Hamas may be willing to discuss its removal from governance, but is adamantly against its disarmament – something the Egyptian plan adopted by the Arab League did not discuss.
Israel has made it clear that this is a red line, and that Hamas will not be allowed to keep its weapons. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also said that he will not allow the PA to return to Gaza.
There is also the question of whether Trump will abandon his idea of a US-controlled “Middle East Riviera” for the Egyptian plan. It is difficult to predict what Trump’s position will be, particularly if Israel signals its opposition to the Egyptian plan.
What has the response been so far?
In response to Egypt’s plan, Israel said that Arab states needed to “break free from past constraints and collaborate to create a future of stability and security in the region”.
Instead, Israel continues to back Trump’s Gaza displacement plan – which echoes a longstanding call from the Israeli far-right to depopulate Gaza.
Egypt called Israel’s response “unacceptable”, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty describing the Netanyahu government’s position as “stubborn and extremist”.
Abdelatty said it would be impossible to see peace in the region without an independent Palestinian state. “No single state should be allowed to impose its will on the international community,” he added.
The White House continues to stand by Trump’s plan for Gaza, but said it would welcome collaboration with regional partners – except Hamas.
“While the President stands by his bold vision for a post-war Gaza, he welcomes input from our Arab partners in the region. It’s clear his proposals have driven the region to come to the table rather than allow this issue to devolve into further crisis,” White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said.
“President Trump has been clear that Hamas cannot continue to govern Gaza,” he added.
相關閱讀：
Arab leaders endorse Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan
European leaders back 'realistic' Arab plan for Gaza
For Israel, ceasefire is a continuation of war by other means
The Egyptian Gaza plan: A deadly trap for Israel and the US
The Egyptian plan for postwar Gaza is a good starting point—but it needs changes
本文於 修改第 4 次
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攻擊伊朗將造成美國戰略窘境 - Andrew Latham
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請參考：
Britain blocking use of air bases Trump says would be needed for strikes on Iran, UK media reports
多個媒體報導：美軍已經完成02/21大舉攻擊伊朗的準備。下文指出：戰爭結果雖然能夠達到一時或短期的目標，但它將削弱美軍之後在全球地緣戰略的軍力佈署。這顯然跟剛公佈《2026國防戰略白皮書》的宗旨不符(該欄2026/02/20)。至少，中東在該「國防戰略」中屬於第四優先地區。不過，世人本來也不曾寄望川瘋及其團隊拿得出什麼考慮周詳，言行一致的全球策略。
參考本欄2026/02/07和2026/02/19兩篇貼文。
A War Against Iran Could Open Up a Pandora’s Box That Won’t Be Easy To Close
Andrew Latham, 02/17/26
War on Iran Would Solve the Wrong Problem: Summary and Key Points
-A major U.S. strike campaign could severely damage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile networks, and IRGC command nodes.
-The deeper issue is what comes after. Physical destruction would likely buy time, not resolution, while strengthening Tehran’s incentive to sprint toward an overt nuclear deterrent.
-Retaliation would surge through Iran’s proxy ecosystem, widening the battlespace and forcing sustained U.S. presence across air defense, maritime security, and regional reassurance.
-Energy shocks from Hormuz risks would ripple globally. The net effect: a militarily feasible operation that drains strategic bandwidth and tightens force-allocation pressure in higher-priority theaters.
A War on Iran Would Solve the Wrong Problem for America
The dispatch of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Middle East is an unmistakable sign that U.S. carrier-based signalling to Tehran is giving way to real carrier-based strike preparation. Debate over a potential U.S. or Israeli bombing campaign has intensified in parallel as Tehran’s nuclear breakout potential remains acute and regional proxy activity continues to widen.
Much of that debate centers on feasibility — whether American airpower could significantly degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, disrupt missile production and storage networks, and fracture IRGC command coordination long enough to alter regional deterrence dynamics. On those questions, the answer is almost certainly yes. The United States retains the capacity to impose severe physical damage on Iranian military and nuclear assets within a compressed operational window.
But military feasibility and strategic alignment are not the same thing. Even a highly successful bombing campaign, one that addressed the most visible manifestations of the Iran problem, would ultimately deepen the structural pressures already weighing on U.S. grand strategy.
Tactical Success Is Not in Doubt
A large-scale strike campaign would not resemble the episodic shadow-war exchanges that defined much of the U.S.–Iran confrontation over the past decade. Nor would it mirror the scale or duration of the 2025 12-Day War.
It would move immediately toward sustained degradation — nuclear infrastructure, missile forces, regime security networks — executed through repeated strike cycles rather than mere symbolic demonstration attacks.
The operational effects would be significant. Enrichment capacity could be pushed backward on the timeline. Missile regeneration would require time and industrial recovery. Personnel losses inside the IRGC would disrupt planning tempo and weaken coordination across partner organizations. In narrow military terms, the United States could inflict significant setbacks on Iran’s coercive reach.
Those gains, however, would be fleeting. Industrial recovery begins quickly in systems built with redundancy in mind. Nuclear knowledge survives bunker penetration. Facilities can be reconstituted deeper underground, dispersed across new sites, or hardened further. A strike campaign purchases time. It does not resolve the underlying challenge.
The Nuclear Acceleration Risk
The more consequential question is how Tehran would internalize such an attack. Modern regime survival lessons are not lost on Iranian planners. Iraq disarmed and fell. Libya abandoned its nuclear program and collapsed under external intervention.
A bombing campaign might therefore delay Iran’s technical progress while intensifying its political resolve. What had been calibrated nuclear latency could shift toward open weaponization. Survival logic would harden under direct assault. The pursuit of a deliverable deterrent would gain urgency rather than diminish.
In that sense, physical destruction and strategic radicalization could unfold simultaneously. Delay in infrastructure might coexist with acceleration in intent.
Proxy Retaliation and Regional Expansion
Strikes on Iranian territory would not remain geographically bounded. Tehran’s deterrent architecture is deliberately externalized across aligned militias and partner organizations. Retaliatory pressure would emerge quickly through those channels, not sequentially.
U.S. facilities throughout the region would be at risk of renewed attack. Hezbollah would activate whatever assets it had left and escalate along Israel’s northern border. The Houthis might resume their disruptions at sea if the war expands. The battlespace would extend well beyond Iranian territory rather than remain confined to it.
Managing that escalation would require a sustained American presence. Naval patrol zones would expand. Air defense assets would require reinforcement. Intelligence coverage would thicken across multiple theaters. A strike campaign would evolve into an enduring regional security management burden.
Energy Market Shockwaves
Iran’s geography ensures that conflict reverberates beyond military channels. Even limited disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would likely produce price volatility. More serious interference would transmit economic shock outward at speed.
Energy dislocation does not remain regional. It moves through inflation, allied fiscal strain, and the redistribution of revenue flows. Russia would benefit from sustained price elevation. Other hydrocarbon producers would capture windfall gains.
The economic externalities of war would shift balance sheets in ways misaligned with U.S. competitive positioning.
Military action would carry geoeconomic consequences independent of battlefield outcomes.
Strategic Bandwidth and Force Allocation
The most enduring effects would appear at the level of global posture. A major conflict with Iran would require sustained allocation of high-end U.S. assets. Carrier groups, bombers, ISR platforms, and missile defense architecture would be drawn into the theater over time.
Those deployments are not costless. Assets concentrated in the Gulf are unavailable elsewhere. Indo-Pacific balancing requirements would feel compression. European reassurance rotations could tighten. Readiness cycles would absorb operational strain.
Strategic competition does not pause for regional wars. China’s military trajectory would continue uninterrupted. Russian opportunism would remain opportunistic. A war with Iran would consume bandwidth for force allocation needed in higher-priority theaters.
The Overstretch Mechanism
This is the structural paradox at the heart of the bombing debate. A strike campaign might weaken Iran’s immediate capacity to threaten regional partners. Yet the act of waging that campaign would expand the perimeter that the United States must defend.
Retaliation risks would require a prolonged presence. Maritime security commitments would deepen. Partner reassurance demands would grow heavier. Each layer would add weight to an already extended strategic architecture.
Overstretch emerges when commitments accumulate faster than force structure can absorb. A new major theater of conflict would intensify that imbalance rather than relieve it.
Tactical Victory, Strategic Ambiguity
None of this negates battlefield effectiveness. On operational metrics, the campaign could register as a clear success.
But success measured in terms of physical damage obscures broader strategic effects. Iran would remain adversarial. Nuclear incentives might intensify. Proxy warfare would broaden. U.S. posture requirements would thicken rather than contract.
The United States would exit the conflict not into strategic relief, but into a more combustible regional system layered atop an already demanding global competition environment.
Solving the Immediate, Compounding the Enduring
The central question is not whether the United States can execute an effective bombing campaign. It can. The question is whether doing so resolves the dominant strategic pressures shaping American power in this period.
Here, the alignment frays. A war with Iran would address urgent operational concerns tied to nuclear latency and proxy coercion. At the same time, it would deepen the strain on force allocation, widen the demands on escalation management, and divert attention from pacing threats in other theaters.
In strategic terms, it would solve the most immediate problem while aggravating the most consequential one.
Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. You can follow him on X: @aakatham.
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美國、伊朗戰爭後的中東政局 - Hamza Farooq
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下文分析的可信度頗高。在阿拉伯國家沒有能力和以色列正面交鋒時，隨之而來的必然是：「對象」和「手段」兩者都毫無禁忌的攻擊模式；或「西方媒體」所謂的「恐怖攻擊」；也就是下文作者警告的「血腥戰爭」(1)。
附註：
1. 原文的 “bloody war”。
The Iran War Isn’t the Problem. The Real Destruction Will Come Later.
I’m not talking about an Iranian civil war or a massive retaliation.
Hamza Farooq, 01/16//26
Suppose America finally launches a massive attack on Iran and now the Ayatollah regime is a part of history.
Now, there is either a pro-American leader in power in Iran, or the Iranians cannot agree on a government, and all major ethnic groups like the Kurds and Baloch have established their own separate governments.
But regardless of the outcome, America will achieve multiple victories beyond just the Middle Eastern front:
* First, China could no longer purchase Iranian oil. Just a few weeks ago, it lost access to Venezuelan oil as well. All of this will ultimately create long-term challenges for the Chinese economy.
* Second, the calculus of the Strait of Hormuz will entirely change. Under the Ayatollah’s regime, if it were blocked, the West and its allies would bear the loss. But now, if a pro-American regime blocks it, the loss will be borne by China, Russia, and their allies.
* Third, the supply of Iranian drones to Russia will now be cut off. This means that a reduction in Russian aggression in Ukraine could be expected to some extent.
* Fourth, America will now be positioned just seventy kilometers from the Pakistani port of Gwadar. This means the flagship structures of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative will now be easily within its reach.
* Fifth, by gaining control over Iran and Venezuela, America will now become the country with the world’s largest oil reserves. It can now easily lower oil prices. This, in turn, will dismantle the primary source of income for Russia and the Gulf nations at any time.
* Sixth, the Ayatollah’s regional proxy groups, which had been a persistent headache for Israel, will now be permanently gone.
* And seventh, and the most important one, is that if there is to be a hegemon in the region, it will be Israel alone.
And it is precisely from here that the real game will begin.
The fall of the Iranian government will undoubtedly bring an end to this ‘axis of resistance’ that the West feared. But it will ultimately give birth to a new ‘axis of resistance’ that will haunt the East, particularly the Arab nations.
And the most terrifying aspect of this will be that, unlike the previous ‘Axis of Resistance,’ this one will be completely unbridled and several times more powerful.
The reality is that, no matter how rogue Iran under the Ayatollahs may have been, it at least kept another rogue force in check. Because of this, a balance of power was maintained in the Middle East. But now, all power will tilt decisively in Israel’s favor.
In reality, Israel is also a type of Iran. Extremists are in power there as well. They just appear slightly more presentable.
And this new ‘Resistance’, Israel, may or may not carry out occasional small, non-kinetic attacks through proxies, but it will definitely conduct direct military bombings to reduce the region to rubble. There will be no one to stop it, nor will it itself have any regard for international law.
The reason for this is that this new ‘Resistance’ has repeatedly spoken of expanding its territory several times over. In fact, there are clear indications of support for these ambitions from the current American president.
And since new land cannot be created, achieving this goal will demand the sacrifice of at least seven neighboring Arab nations.
Before today, there was the fear of a second power, Iran under the Ayatollahs. That will no longer exist.
Why would the Arab nations, whose majority population considers Israel a colonial project, allow this new ‘Resistance’ to seize their land as well?
It’ll bring a bloody war.
The truth is that Israel’s past reveals many instances where it was simply waiting for an opportunity, and as soon as it arose, it achieved its ambitions. Our ancestors may remember the opportunity it seized in 1967, and our own generation has witnessed such an opportunity live in 2023.
Why would it then be difficult for Israel to find an opportunity to seize Arab land after the Iranian issue is resolved? The truth is, it will indeed find that opportunity. It is only a matter of sooner or later.
It is a geographic vulnerability and misfortune for the Arab nations that they are caught between Iran on one side and Israel on the other. Both are eager to dominate them. Whichever one is ‘subtracted,’ the one that does the subtracting will establish dominance over the Arabs. And now it is certain that the one doing the subtracting will be Israel.
Perhaps the Arab nations had clearly perceived this during the Israel-Iran war in June. That is why they now consider Israel, not Iran, their primary security threat. Saudi Arabia even took steps to acquire Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella in an attempt to deter Israel.
The September Israeli airstrikes in Qatar made it abundantly clear to the Arab nations that a situation akin to Gaza is inevitably around the corner for them as well.
That is why, after Iran’s departure, they now want to restore the balance of power. In this context, according to the latest news, it is entirely possible that after Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Turkey might also throw its weight against Israel.
Take any major war from history. When an entity is left unbridled, destruction becomes inevitable. There is no need here to detail or cite historical events.
And I think that it’s worth mentioning here that, whenever I alluded to Israeli warmongering in my previous articles, I was ridiculed. But everyone has quieted down dramatically since the attacks on Qatar.
Anyways.
Whatever happens, in the coming days, you will surely witness the funeral procession of whatever international laws remain.
Written by Hamza Farooq
I envisage a world governed by rules and moral values. But I analyze everything through a realistic lens. Freelance Work: hamzafcontent@gmail.com
I’m available for freelance work. If you need SEO-optimized, high-ranking content on geopolitics, international affairs, or political analysis, connect with me via email or Upwork.
Email: hamzafcontent@gmail.com
Upwork: View my profile & portfolio
Published in The Geopolitical Economist
In The Global geopolitics, truth is one, but the wise interpret it differently.— Here, we interpret these diversions
本文於 修改第 2 次
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美國伊朗核武談判審慎樂觀 -- Olivia Le Poidevin
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美、伊雙方領導人打打最砲，甚或短時間、局部性的舞機弄艦都無傷大雅。希望兩家有大人出來說幾句話，不要假戲真做或擦槍走火搞成全面戰爭；那就不僅僅是區域性的禍害了。請參見本欄2026/02/07貼文。
Iran foreign minister says progress made in nuclear talks with U.S. in Geneva
Olivia Le Poidevin, 02/17/26
GENEVA, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Iran and the United States reached an understanding on the main "guiding principles" in a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday but work still needs to be done, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.
The progress does not mean an agreement will be reached soon but the path has started, he told Iranian media after the talks concluded.
Iranian state media reported earlier that Iran would temporarily shut part of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil supply route, as it held talks over its nuclear programme with the United States, which has sent a battle force to the Gulf region to press Tehran to make concessions.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said "regime change" in Tehran may be the best thing that can happen, while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday that any U.S. attempts to depose his government would fail.
Just as the talks got under way in Geneva, Iranian state media reported that parts of the strategic strait would close for a few hours due to "security precautions" while Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills there.
Tehran has in the past threatened to shut down the strait to commercial shipping if it is attacked, a move that would choke off a fifth of global oil flows and drive up crude prices.
Alongside Araqchi, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner took part in the Geneva talks, which were being mediated by Oman, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters.
Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin; Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi and Elwely Elwelly in Dubai, Humeyra Pamuk in Budapest, Rishabh Jaiswal in Bengaluru, Steve Holland in Washington, Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Kevin Liffey, Lincoln Feast, Sharon Singleton and Gareth Jones
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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美軍規劃攻擊伊朗長期方案 -- Phil Stewart/Idrees Ali
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這類消息也有可能只不過在：「虛聲恫嚇」。總之，我們平頭老百姓只能希望：五角大廈資深中級官員能夠做全面、深入、詳盡的「廟算」；請參考本欄上一篇。
巴拉維者可謂「伊奸」。
Exclusive: US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations
Phil Stewart/Idrees Ali, 02/14/26
Summary
* Trump says it has been difficult to make a deal with Iran
* US fully expects Iran to retaliate, official says
* A sustained campaign carries more risk to US forces, broader Middle East
WASHINGTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters, in what could become a far more serious conflict than previously seen between the countries.
The disclosure by the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the planning, raises the stakes for the diplomacy underway between the United States and Iran.
The Reuters Gulf Currents newsletter brings you the latest on geopolitics, energy and finance in the region. Sign up here.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will hold negotiations with Iran on Tuesday in Geneva, with representatives from Oman acting as mediators. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned on Saturday that while Trump's preference was to reach a deal with Tehran, "that’s very hard to do."
Meanwhile, Trump has amassed military forces in the region, raising fears of new military action. U.S. officials said on Friday the Pentagon was sending an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, adding thousands more troops along with fighter aircraft, guided-missile destroyers and other firepower capable of waging attacks and defending against them.
Trump, speaking on Friday after a military event at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, openly floated the possibility of changing the government in Iran, saying it "seems like that would be the best thing that could happen." He declined to share who he wanted to take over Iran, but said, "there are people."
"For 47 years, they've been talking and talking and talking," Trump said.
Trump has long voiced skepticism about sending ground troops into Iran, saying last year, "the last thing you want to do is ground forces," and the kinds of U.S. firepower arrayed in the Middle East so far suggest options for strikes primarily by air and naval forces. In Venezuela, Trump demonstrated a willingness to rely also on special operations forces to seize that country's president, Nicolas Maduro, in a raid last month.
Asked for comment on the preparations for a potentially sustained U.S. military operation, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said: "President Trump has all options on the table with regard to Iran."
"He listens to a variety of perspectives on any given issue, but makes the final decision based on what is best for our country and national security," Kelly said.
The Pentagon declined to comment.
The United States sent two aircraft carriers to the region last year, when it carried out strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
However, June's "Midnight Hammer" operation was essentially a one-off U.S. attack, with stealth bombers flying from the United States to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran staged a very limited retaliatory strike on a U.S. base in Qatar.
RISKS INCREASING
The planning under way this time is more complex, the officials said.
In a sustained campaign, the U.S. military could hit Iranian state and security facilities, not just nuclear infrastructure, one of the officials said. The official declined to provide specific details.
Experts say the risks to U.S. forces would be far greater in such an operation against Iran, which boasts a formidable arsenal of missiles. Retaliatory Iranian strikes also increase the risk of a regional conflict.
The same official said the United States fully expected Iran to retaliate, leading to back-and-forth strikes and reprisals over time.
The White House and Pentagon did not respond to questions about the risks of retaliation or regional conflict.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to bomb Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and crushing of internal dissent. On Thursday, he warned the alternative to a diplomatic solution would "be very traumatic, very traumatic."
Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, it could retaliate against any U.S. military base.
The U.S. maintains bases throughout the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Trump for talks in Washington on Wednesday, saying that if an agreement with Iran were reached, "it must include the elements that are vital to Israel."
Iran has said it is prepared to discuss curbs on its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, but has ruled out linking the issue to missiles.
On Saturday, Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi said U.S. military intervention in Iran could save lives and urged Washington not to spend too long negotiating with Tehran's clerical rulers on a nuclear deal.
The exiled son of Iran's toppled shah told Reuters in an interview there were signs that the Iranian government was on the brink of collapse and that an attack could weaken it or accelerate its fall.
"We are hoping that this attack will expedite the process and the people can be finally back in the streets and take it all the way to the ultimate regime's downfall," said Pahlavi, who is based in the United States and has lived outside Iran since before his father was toppled in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Reporting by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali; Editing by Don Durfee, Rosalba O'Brien, Rod Nickel
Phil Stewart has reported from more than 60 countries, including Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China and South Sudan. An award-winning Washington-based national security reporter, Phil has appeared on NPR, PBS NewsHour, Fox News and other programs and moderated national security events, including at the Reagan National Defense Forum and the German Marshall Fund. He is a recipient of the Edwin M. Hood Award for Diplomatic Correspondence and the Joe Galloway Award.
Idrees Ali is a National security correspondent focusing on the Pentagon in Washington D.C. Reports on U.S. military activity and operations throughout the world and the impact that they have. Has reported from over two dozen countries to include Iraq, Afghanistan, and much of the Middle East, Asia and Europe. From Karachi, Pakistan.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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伊、以各自的同歸於盡殺手鐧 - Hamza Farooq
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從他大名來看，作者應該是中東裔；從而，請各位自行判斷：下文內容是否「危言聳聽」。
Iran’s Retaliation Blueprint Is Ready. And It Should Worry Everyone.
It’s not about the Strait of Hormuz or contaminating the Gulf’s waters with nuclear waste…
Hamza Farooq, 02/02/26
In response to recent threats of attack and military buildup by the US, Iran responded by saying that “it will retaliate like never before.”
Now, receiving such a response isn’t surprising. Even the weakest armies say such things when threatened. And Iran is, among the armies the US has clashed with in this century, the strongest foe.
But if we carefully analyze Iran’s message within the context of the 12-day war last June, we can get the potential severity of this threat. It is one that might eventually bring the whole world down.
Here’s how. Take a look at the picture circulating on X nowadays.
Image link. 地圖照片
It marks five Israeli targets which, if attacked successfully, can bring the whole Israeli economy to its knees and eventually “deport” everyone living there. And with no population and economy, Israel could collapse in days if not hours.
These targets are the water desalination plants.
Like other Middle Eastern nations, Israel doesn’t have sufficient flowing water for household use and to sustain its industries. So, it has built five major desalination plants on the Mediterranean coast to make seawater usable for its population.
Estimates say that at least 65% of Israel’s water comes from these plants. The rest comes from natural lakes, rivers, and groundwater.
Can you run a country without water? Absolutely not. And if Iran successfully destroys these water desalination plants, the game could be over for Israel in no time. With no water to sustain the economy and for domestic consumption, the hustling-bustling country of Israel will come to a halt.
Iran’s use of water as a weapon is now highly likely. Here’s why:
1. Iran knows that it can’t sustain a long war, as its regime would surely collapse. So naturally, there’s no point in not hitting the enemy where it hurts the most when you yourself are not going to survive.
2. During the 12-day war, the attacks were limited. Both sides showed restraint, and attacks were more symbolic than decisive. Iran didn’t go all out because it preferred a ceasefire. That’s why it attacked a target in Qatar only after warning the Qatari government. This time, however, it’s clear that no holds will be barred. All gloves are off. And that goes for both sides.
3. Iran has unequivocally declared that it will attack Israel if the US attacks Iran, even if Israel doesn’t play any role in the war. Iran has also declared that even a small, limited attack by the US will be considered the start of an all-out war.
4. Water wars are real. There are recent examples in the international community of similar tactics. Look at South Asia. After a terrorist attack in India in April 2025, which India blamed on Pakistan, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty. This treaty guaranteed that Pakistan would keep receiving water from the rivers that flow from India. Pakistan’s entire economy depends on this water, and without this treaty, India could stop the water, eventually desertifying Pakistan without firing a single shot. Iran might very well be taking this move out of the Indian playbook to justify its attack on Israel’s water plants. After all, everything is fair in love and war.
5. Furthermore, the recent history of using water as a weapon also exists within the Iran-Israel conflict. Recently, Israeli PM Netanyahu openly tried to exploit Iran’s water shortage issues in Israel’s favor. This means that Iran might want to exploit Israel’s water issues in a tit-for-tat response.
Having said that, on the surface, if such a situation arises, this would seem to be only Israel’s problem. However, it has the catastrophic potential to become a global problem almost immediately.
Here’s why I say this.
Just as I argued that Iran will try to escalate this war because it will be sure its regime won’t survive, Israel would also escalate far more drastically if its collapse seems imminent.
For those who don’t know, Israel is widely believed to have a “Samson Option.” This is a purported last-resort strategy to be employed if it ever feels the threat of annihilation. In simple words, this doctrine says that Israel will nuke the whole region if its own survival is at stake.
After all, no water means no population and no economy. And without these two pillars, a state can’t survive.
The name of this doctrine is a reference to the biblical Israelite judge Samson, who pushed apart the pillars of a Philistine temple, bringing down the roof and killing himself and thousands of Philistines who had captured him.
And if Israel ever employs the Samson Option, I don’t need to explain what will happen next to the whole world…
Even if we never see Iranian attacks on Israeli water desalination plants, there are plenty of other options Iran would definitely pursue.
I wish things never escalate. But if the US really wants to attack Iran, any action would need to be super-calculated. Unless it boosts defenses in the Middle East so much that no Iranian missile can penetrate them, I don’t think it’s wise to start a war.
The US needs to make sure that the Iranian missile barrage that overwhelmed Israeli air defenses in June can be stopped from hitting any critical target this time. Or ultimately the onus of the losses in the whole world will be on the US alone.
The situation reminds me of a famous Urdu couplet (烏都語金句) :
(烏都文；無法複製。)
Take even a breath gently, for very delicate is the work
Of this glassblower’s workshop of the cosmos.
I’m available for freelance work. If you need SEO-optimized, high-ranking content on geopolitics, international affairs, or political analysis, connect with me via email or Upwork.
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Written by Hamza Farooq
I envisage a world governed by rules and moral values. But I analyze everything through a realistic lens. Freelance Work: hamzafcontent@gmail.com
Published in The Geopolitical Economist
In The Global geopolitics, truth is one, but the wise interpret it differently.— Here, we interpret these diversions
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本文於 修改第 1 次
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面對伊朗危機川普6個可行方案 -- Adrian Blomfield
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根據川瘋個人「人格」和他僚屬的素質兩者看(1)，他鋌而走險執行「伊拉克方案」(大規模入侵)，或步步調入這個泥淖的機會，大概在50%以上。這應該是「把美國搞垮」的最後一根稻草、木棍、或鐵釘。
附註：
1. 「人格」一詞在此脈絡為心理學術語。
Trump has six options that will define the future of Iran
Massive force, swiftly delivered has brought wins – but White House recognises risk of ‘forever war’
Adrian Blomfield, 01/30/26
For someone so instinctively non-interventionist, Donald Trump has developed a taste for military action – particularly when the battle is short and decisive.
The snatch-and-run operation to spirit Nicolás Maduro out of Venezuela this month and last year’s bunker-busting raids on Iran’s nuclear facilities allowed the United States president to savour emphatic victories without entanglement. Both reinforced his belief that force, swiftly applied, can deliver results.
Emboldened by those successes, determined to reassert Washington’s global primacy and sensing what he sees as a historic opportunity to remove a regime that has menaced the Middle East for nearly half a century, Mr Trump is again contemplating the military option.
This time, however, the gamble is far greater. If the US president decides to use force, it is conceivable that he could indeed topple the ayatollahs who have suffocated and subjugated Iran for decades.
But if things go wrong, he could also ignite a regional conflagration, spark a civil war and drag the US into the very kind of forever conflict he has long railed against.
“The risks are immense, but so are the rewards,” said Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of research for Israeli military intelligence. “It is a very difficult decision to make.”
A fortnight ago, as Mr Trump promised protesters on Iran’s streets that help was “on the way”, Israel lobbied against US military strikes. Officials feared that the interceptor air defence stockpile Israel burnt through during last year’s war had left the country dangerously exposed to an Iranian ballistic-missile counter-attack.
Those concerns have been partly allayed by the build-up of US offensive and defensive assets in the region. Israel is now believed to be keen for Mr Trump to take action, even as anxious Gulf powers urge restraint.
中東地區美國軍力佈署圖
Much depends on what, precisely, the US is trying to achieve – something that has grown less clear now that the protests have been crushed.
Is he seeking to punish Iran for slaughtering thousands – and possibly tens of thousands – of its own people? Is the aim to force Iran into a deal in which it formally abandons its nuclear programme? Or is he pursuing regime change – and if so, what would that actually look like?
Diplomats and analysts say there are essentially six scenarios under consideration.
Military pressure alone
The Iranian regime has rarely looked weaker. The three pillars of its regional power – its network of proxy militias, its nuclear programme and its ballistic-missile arsenal – have all been significantly degraded over the past two years. The brutal suppression of protests has shorn it of what little domestic legitimacy it retained. Fear alone sustains the system.
A show of might, rather than force, may therefore be sufficient to extract major concessions. With their survival at stake, Iran’s rulers might countenance steps they have long rejected: formally abandoning nuclear ambitions, dismantling proxy networks and surrendering remaining ballistic missiles – perhaps even sacrificing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Such an outcome would hand Mr Trump a major foreign-policy triumph without a shot being fired. Nothing would burnish his credentials more.
Yet diplomats regard it as unlikely. The regime appears determined to “resist rather than retreat”, says one. If Tehran digs in and Washington then backs away, Mr Trump risks looking weak.
The symbolic strike
Having set a red line – threatening military action if the regime continued killing protesters – Mr Trump has placed himself under pressure to act. The last thing he wants is to be likened to Barack Obama, who failed to enforce his own red lines in Syria.
If credibility is his overriding concern, the president could opt for a limited, largely symbolic strike, echoing his 2017 and 2018 missile attacks on Syrian regime targets.
Under such a scenario, US forces might hit one or two high-profile sites, such as the Thar-Allah headquarters in Tehran, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centre widely seen as the nerve hub of internal repression. The destruction of such a building would be celebrated by many Iranians.
This would be a “low-cost, low-reward” option, one diplomat says. Mr Trump could claim to have kept his word while minimising the risk of retaliation. But so limited a response would leave his administration open to charges of having betrayed the protesters and reduced mass killings to a performative gesture.
Limited substantive action
Mr Trump could choose broader strikes designed to encourage renewed unrest, placing the regime under simultaneous external and internal pressure.
Such a campaign would probably last several days, targeting air defences, ballistic-missile launchers, communications infrastructure, energy facilities and IRGC installations, including facilities linked to the Basij militia responsible for much of the protest violence.
The objective would be to create conditions in which Iranians might seize the initiative themselves, allowing the US to facilitate rather than directly engineer regime change.
The risks are considerable.
Protesters, exhausted, traumatised and suspicious, may not respond. Strikes could instead rally the population around the regime, as they did during June’s 12-day war. Many IRGC and Basij facilities sit in densely populated areas, raising the likelihood of civilian casualties.
And Iran, which still retains a substantial missile arsenal despite the losses suffered in June, could retaliate against Israel or the Gulf states.
The Maduro option
Should Israel or the US acquire actionable intelligence, Mr Trump might authorize an operation to capture or kill Khamenei – something he was reluctant to contemplate last year.
“We know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding,” he said during the 12-day war. “He is an easy target, but… we are not going to take him out, at least not for now.”
Such a strike would allow Mr Trump a Maduro moment, though on a vastly greater scale. But locating Khamenei may now be far harder.
After the war, the regime launched an extensive counter-espionage purge, arresting thousands and executing an unknown number. Security around senior officials has tightened, safe houses have multiplied and Khamenei rarely appears in public.
Even if successful, there is no guarantee his successor would prove pliant – or stabilising.
The Gaddafi option
Should limited action fail, Mr Trump could escalate, sustaining air strikes until the regime collapses, while providing support to re-emerging protests.
“If the Iranian regime is going to be removed, the reward for the safety and security of the world, and of the Middle East in particular, would be immense,” said Gen Kuperwasser. “It justifies the risks.”
Those risks are formidable. It took seven months to topple Gaddafi, and Iran – unlike Libya – has no organised rebel force advancing on the capital. A prolonged campaign would risk a rupture between Mr Trump and the anti-interventionist wing of his base.
Facing a threat to its existence, Iran could attempt to ignite the region, striking Israel, US bases and even naval assets. It could target Gulf oil facilities or attempt to seal the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring and undermining Mr Trump’s domestic priorities.
This helps explain why Gulf allies, despite warm ties with the White House, oppose strikes so resolutely and have refused to allow the US to use their territory, airspace or waters for an attack on Iran.
They fear, too, what might follow regime collapse. “The risk of chaos, even of civil war, is unacceptably high,” said one former Arab diplomat. “Containment may be safer than confrontation.”
The Saddam option
One path Mr Trump is almost certainly not considering is an Iraq-style ground invasion.
Boots on the ground would be the most effective way to topple the regime, but managing a transition in Iran – a country nearly four times the size of Iraq, with twice the population and a far more complex social fabric – would be vastly harder.
Mr Trump has been accused of bombast, but not even his foes consider him gung-ho. The last thing he wants is another Iraq – though he may find that, having ordered military action, he has stumbled into the kind of Middle Eastern entanglement he long swore to avoid.
Mr Trump has shown that he believes wars can be won quickly, cleanly and on his own terms. A new intervention may yet prove him right – but Iran could just as easily be the place where his foreign policy starts to unravel.
Try full access to The Telegraph free today. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus useful tools and expert guides for your money, health and holidays.
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伊朗將如何回應川普步步進逼 - Amir Azimi
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狗急了都要跳牆；那些吃香喝辣，養尊處優慣了的「革命衛隊」大爺們，一想到沒酒、沒肉、沒女人的苦日子，怎麼可能會不惡向膽邊生 -- 橫豎都是個死字；老子跟你拚了！
倒霉的只會是伊朗老百姓和航空母艦上的美國子弟。
到目前為止，川瘋的表現用「人如其名」來形容可說維妙維肖。大家等著看：「兩敗俱傷，各掘墳墓」的大戲吧！
Why Iran's response to a US attack could be different this time
Amir Azimi - BBC News Persian, 01/30/26
The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group into the US Central Command area of responsibility, close to Iranian waters, has sharpened the sense that a broader confrontation may be taking shape.
Coming amid the most extensive and violent crackdown on protests in Iran in recent memory, the deployment underscores how close Washington and Tehran may now be to a direct showdown, closer than at any point in recent years.
Iranian leaders find themselves squeezed between a protest movement increasingly demanding the removal of the regime itself and a US president who has kept his intentions deliberately opaque, fuelling anxiety not only in Tehran but across an already volatile region.
Iran's response to a potential US military strike may not follow the familiar, carefully calibrated pattern seen in earlier confrontations with Washington.
President Donald Trump's recent threats, made in the context of Iran's violent suppression of domestic unrest, come at a moment of exceptional internal strain for the Islamic Republic. As a result, any US attack now carries a significantly higher risk of rapid escalation, both regionally and inside Iran.
In recent years, Tehran has shown a preference for delayed and limited retaliation.
After US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on 21-22 June 2025, Iran responded with a missile attack on the US-operated Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar the following day.
According to President Trump, Iran had given advance warning of the strike, allowing air defences to intercept most of the missiles. No casualties were reported. The exchange was widely interpreted as a deliberate attempt by Iran to signal resolve while avoiding a wider war.
A similar pattern emerged in January 2020, during Trump's first presidency. Following the US assassination of Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad airport on 3 January, Iran retaliated five days later by firing missiles at the US Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq.
Again, advance warning was provided. While no US personnel were killed, dozens later reported traumatic brain injuries. The episode reinforced the perception that Tehran sought to manage escalation rather than provoke it.
The present moment, however, is markedly different.
Iran is emerging from one of the most serious waves of domestic unrest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
Protests that erupted in late December and early January were met with a severe violent crackdown. Human rights organisations and medical workers inside the country report that several thousand people have been killed, with many more injured or detained.
The exact numbers cannot be verified due to a lack of access and an internet blackout which has continued for more than two weeks. Iranian authorities have not accepted responsibility for the deaths, instead blaming what they describe as "terrorist groups" and accusing Israel of fomenting the unrest.
That narrative has been echoed at the highest levels of the state. Iran's secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said recently that the protests should be seen as a continuation of last summer's 12-day war with Israel, a framing that offers insight into the authorities' security-first response and that might have been used as an excuse to justify the scale and intensity of the crackdown.
Although the scale of street protests has since diminished, they have not ended. The grievances remain unresolved, and the divide between large parts of society and the ruling system has rarely appeared so wide.
On 8 and 9 January, security forces reportedly lost control of parts of several towns and neighbourhoods in major cities before reasserting authority through overwhelming force.
That brief loss of control appears to have deeply unsettled the authorities. The calm that followed has been imposed rather than negotiated, leaving the situation highly combustible.
Uncompromising rhetoric
Against this backdrop, the nature of any US strike becomes critical.
A limited attack may allow Washington to claim military success while avoiding immediate regional war, but it could also provide Iranian authorities with a pretext for another round of internal repression.
Such a scenario risks fresh crackdowns, mass arrests and a new wave of harsh sentences, including death penalties, for protesters already in detention.
At the other extreme, a broader US campaign that significantly weakens or cripples the Iranian state could push the country towards the brink of chaos.
The sudden collapse of central authority in a country of more than 90 million people would be unlikely to produce a clean or rapid transition. Instead, it could trigger prolonged instability, factional violence, and spillover effects across the region, with consequences that may take years to contain.
These risks help explain the increasingly uncompromising rhetoric from Tehran.
Senior commanders in both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular armed forces, along with senior political officials, have warned that any US attack-regardless of scale-would be treated as an act of war.
Such declarations have unsettled Iran's neighbours, particularly Gulf states hosting US forces. A rapid Iranian response would place those countries - and Israel - at immediate risk, regardless of their direct involvement, and raises the prospect of a conflict spreading far beyond Iran and the United States.
Washington, too, faces constraints. Trump has repeatedly warned Iranian authorities against using violence against protesters and, at the height of the unrest, told Iranians that "help is coming". Those remarks were widely circulated inside Iran and raised expectations among protesters.
Both sides are aware of the broader strategic picture.
Trump knows Iran is militarily weaker than it was before last summer's 12-day war, and Tehran is aware that he has little appetite for a full-scale, open-ended conflict.
That mutual awareness may provide some reassurance, but it could also create dangerous misperceptions, with each side potentially overestimating its leverage or misreading the opponent's intentions.
For Trump, finding a balance, whatever that might be, is crucial. He needs an outcome he can present as a victory, without tipping Iran into either a renewed cycle of repression or a descent into chaos.
For Iranian leaders, the danger lies in timing and perception. Iran's previous model of delayed, symbolic retaliation may no longer be sufficient if leaders believe speed is essential to reassert deterrence on the outside and control inside of the country that was shaken by the scale of the recent unrests.
Yet, a rapid response would sharply increase the risk of miscalculation, drawing regional actors into a conflict few can afford.
With both sides under intense pressure and little room to manoeuvre, a long-running game of brinkmanship may be approaching its most dangerous moment, one in which the cost of getting the balance wrong would be borne not only by governments, but by millions of ordinary Iranians and the wider region beyond.
相關新聞
Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?
What could happen if the US strikes Iran? Here are seven scenarios
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好人難做：以色列軍方爆醜聞 – M. Lidman/J. Frankel
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「道德」的重要性不在於它能導出「禮教」或「道學」；而在於：「四維不張，國乃滅亡」(《管子•牧民》第1；「四維」之意請見該篇第2)。其「所以然」者，蓋因：「道德」的功能在維繫社會穩定發展；「道德」淪喪則社會秩序動盪，社會秩序動盪則國將不國。
美國的衰敗驗證了管子的睿智，以色列其能遠乎？
Israel rocked by scandal as top military lawyer resigns, goes missing, is found and thrown into jail
MELANIE LIDMAN/JULIA FRANKEL, 11/04/25
JERUSALEM (AP) — Until last week, Maj. Gen. Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi was the Israeli army's top lawyer. Now she is behind bars and at the center of a scandal rocking the country after a bizarre sequence of events that included her abrupt resignation, a brief disappearance and a frantic search that led authorities to find her on a Tel Aviv beach.
The soap opera-worthy saga was touched off last week by Tomer-Yerushalmi’s explosive admission that she approved the leak of a surveillance video at the center of a politically divisive investigation into allegations of severe abuse against a Palestinian at a notorious Israeli military prison.
The video shows part of an assault in which Israeli soldiers are accused of sexually abusing a Palestinian detainee.
By leaking the video last year, Tomer-Yerushalmi aimed to expose the seriousness of the allegations her office was investigating. Instead, it triggered fierce criticism from Israel's hard-line political leaders. After Tomer-Yerushalmi resigned under pressure last week, her critics continued to heave personal insults.
She left a cryptic note for her family and abandoned her car near a beach. That led to fears she may have taken her own life and prompted an intensive search that included the use of military drones.
She was found alive at the beach Sunday night, at which point more vitriol against her was unleashed.
“We can resume the lynch,” right-wing TV personality Yinon Magal, an ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, posted on X with a winking-face emoji.
After it was revealed that one of Tomer-Yerushalmi's phones had disappeared, right-wing politicians and commentators began to accuse her of staging a suicide attempt as a way to destroy potential evidence.
The extraordinary episode shows two years of devastating war have done little to heal a country that was deeply divided even before Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack. It also makes Tomer-Yerushalmi the latest in a long line of top security officials who have either left office or been forced out, most of them to be replaced by people considered loyal to Netanyahu and his hardline government.
Anger over leak distracts from severe abuse at heart of case
At a court hearing Monday, the judge said Tomer-Yerushalmi's detention would be extended until Wednesday on suspicion of committing fraud, breach of trust and obstruction of justice. While the investigation into her actions continues, she is being held at a women’s prison in central Israel.
Israeli media reported that former chief military prosecutor Col. Matan Solomesh was also arrested in connection with the leak investigation. The prime minister's office has refused to comment on Solomesh’s arrest.
The fury over the leaked video reveals the depth of polarization in Israel — and at least for the moment, keeps the media and the public focused on the leak and not the allegations of abuse.
The assault occurred on July 5, 2024, at the Sde Teiman military prison, according to the indictment against the accused soldiers. The AP has investigated allegations of inhumane treatment and abuse at Sde Teiman that predate those in the surveillance video.
That video, which has been aired by Israeli news, shows soldiers taking a detainee into an area they cordoned off with shields in an apparent attempt to hide their actions. The indictment said the soldiers assaulted the Palestinian prisoner and sodomized him with a knife, causing multiple injuries.
A medical staffer familiar with the case who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear for his safety said the detainee arrived at a civilian hospital in life-threatening condition with blunt trauma to the abdomen and the chest and fractured ribs.
He said the detainee underwent surgery for a perforated rectum and was released back to Sde Teiman days later. The staffer said it was the most extreme abuse case he was familiar with from Sde Teiman.
When military police came to Sde Teiman in July to detain the soldiers suspected of abuse, they scuffled with protesters opposed to the arrests. Later, hundreds of violent protesters broke into the detention center.
In her resignation letter, Tomer-Yerushalmi wrote that she had exposed evidence of the abuse to counter the idea that the military was unfairly targeting its own soldiers. That idea was creating a danger to the military’s law enforcement, she said, citing the break-in.
She wrote that the military had a “duty to investigate when there is reasonable suspicion of violence against a detainee.
“Unfortunately, this basic understanding — that there are actions which must never be taken even against the vilest of detainees — no longer convinces everyone,” she wrote.
The Palestinian detainee who was the subject of the alleged abuse in the video was released back to Gaza last month as part of an exchange between living hostages and Palestinian prisoners, according to documents from the military prosecutor’s office obtained by the AP.
The case is still pending before the military court.
A web of legal issues
Three separate legal issues must be sorted out as part of Israel’s investigation into what happened at Sde Teiman, said Yohanan Plesner, the president of the Jerusalem-based think tank Israel Democracy Institute.
The first is the allegation that Israeli soldiers tortured Hamas militants while they were in detention. The second is whether Israeli civilians, including members of parliament, tried to disrupt the investigation by breaking into the military base where the soldiers accused of the actions were being held. The third is whether the military attorney general allegedly committed a host of offenses, including fraud, to undermine the investigation into how a video purporting to show the abuse was leaked to the media.
The intense rhetoric over the past few days is reminiscent of what it was like in Israel immediately before the Oct. 7 attack that launched the war in Gaza, Plesner said. At the time, the public was deeply divided over Netanyahu’s push to overhaul the judiciary.
The concern for a few hours Sunday night about Tomer-Yerushalmi’s fate should serve as a “stop sign” to the Israeli public — and especially to commentators who derided her personally, Plesner said.
“It was very sad to see how the internal discourse can bring about such potentially tragic outcome on a personal level,” Plesner said.
It felt especially symbolic, he said, that Tomer-Yerushalmi was in court while the Israeli government held its official memorial ceremony marking the 30th anniversary of the assassination of then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Many regard the assassination as Israel's lowest point in terms of divisions and incitement among the Israeli public, and worry that the dramatic events of the weekend foreshadow Israel's return to a similar period of internal strife.
“It was very sad to see how the internal discourse can bring about such potentially tragic outcome on a personal level,” Plesner said. “There's a way how to debate our differences in a democratic society."
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了解最新「加薩和平方案」 -- Adam Rasgon等
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As Gaza Deal Nears, Palestinians and Israelis Cheer — and Worry
With the agreement still not finalized, people in Gaza and Israel celebrated a possible end to two years of war, but hoped they were not doing so prematurely.
Adam Rasgon/Bilal Shbair/Liam Stack/Michael Levenson, Reporting from Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Gaza, 10/09/25
Flashing victory signs, waving flags and pouring into streets and plazas, Israelis and Palestinians celebrated on Thursday as Israel and Hamas moved toward a cease-fire and a hostage-prisoner exchange that could pave the way for an end to two years of devastating war in Gaza.
Early Friday, the Israeli government put its stamp of approval on the deal reached by negotiators for Hamas and Israel in Egypt earlier in the week. President Trump said he expected that the Israelis being held hostage in Gaza would be released on Monday or Tuesday in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.
Mr. Trump also said he was planning to travel to Egypt for a ceremonial signing of the agreement, which his administration helped broker, and to Israel to address its Parliament at the invitation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Mr. Trump described the agreement as a “momentous breakthrough in the Middle East.”
Although the text of the agreement had not been made public, it promises at least a cease-fire, if not a more lasting end to a war that has set off a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, battered Hamas militarily and left Israel exhausted and isolated internationally. The conflict has also contributed to a rise in antisemitic violence across the world.
Shosh Bedrosian, an Israeli government spokeswoman, said that a full cease-fire in Gaza would go into effect 24 hours after the government endorsed the agreement. But the Israeli foreign minister, Gideon Saar, said the truce would begin immediately after the vote.
Israeli forces would first pull its forces back to lines that will leave them in control of about 53 percent of the Gaza Strip, said Ms. Bedrosian. After the withdrawal, Hamas would then have 72 hours to return all the hostages, she added. The Israeli military said that it was preparing to lead the operation for the hostages’ return and to “transition to adjusted deployment lines soon.”
Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas’s chief negotiator, said that Israel and Hamas had “reached an agreement to end the war and the aggression against our people.” The agreement includes the release of 250 Palestinians serving life sentences in Israel and 1,700 Gazans imprisoned by Israel since the war began, he said.
He said mediators and the United States had provided guarantees that the agreement meant “the war is completely over.”
The initial agreement addresses only a few of the 20 points in the plan Mr. Trump proposed, and some of the most difficult issues between Israel and Hamas appeared to have been left to future negotiations. Among those issues are who would govern a postwar Gaza and whether — and how — Hamas would lay down its weapons.
In Gaza, where food shortages have led international experts to declare a famine in part of the territory, aid agencies expressed hope that they could begin speeding supplies to the hungry.
Hamas and Qatar, one of the countries brokering the negotiations, indicated that aid would be allowed into Gaza. The United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, said the U.N. and its partners were ready to scale up food, water, shelter and medical assistance in Gaza once a cease-fire went into effect.
Hours after Mr. Trump announced the deal, the Israeli military reminded residents of Gaza that its troops continued to occupy the territory and were still fighting a war. Explosions and smoke rose from Gaza Thursday morning, indicating that Israeli military operations were continuing even as a cease-fire was expected to begin soon. In the Gaza City neighborhood of Sabra, more than 40 people were believed to have been buried under the rubble of a strike, according to a spokesman for a rescue service under the Hamas-run Interior Ministry of Gaza.
In Khan Younis, dozens of Palestinians celebrated near Nasser Hospital — a site of Israeli strikes during the war — clapping and marching through the streets after the deal was announced. One man chanted prayers. Another sprayed party foam. Children flashed the victory sign.
In interviews across Gaza, many Palestinians expressed relief and joy, but also disbelief and fear. Some said their hopes had been raised by past cease-fire negotiations, only to be dashed when those talks collapsed.
The war has left Gaza in ruins, with tens of thousands dead, many wounded or maimed, and countless without a home.
Doaa Hamdouna, 39, said she had heard people celebrating the deal but could not bring herself to join them.
“I still don’t trust it,” said Ms. Hamdouna, a math teacher from Gaza City who said she had fled the Israeli military five times during the war. “I’m mixed between wanting to believe it will last and fearing or worrying that it won’t, that we’ll never really stand in our neighborhoods in Gaza City again.”
Mohammed Fares, 25, who has been sheltering in Deir al Balah, said he was “so happy” that a deal had been announced but worried that the future would have no end of suffering, with “so many things totally ruined and destroyed.”
“It will take decades to make Gaza a humane place to live,” Mr. Fares said.
In Israel, crowds swelled on the Tel Aviv plaza known as Hostages Square as news of the deal spread. Israelis waved flags printed with yellow ribbons for those still in captivity, along with American flags, while singing and dancing. A man unscrewed a bottle of arak, a traditional anise-flavored spirit, poured glasses all around and a group raised a toast.
“It’s relief that it’s finally OK to feel something that isn’t grief: joy,” said Hila Ramati-Harel, 29.
Itzik Horn, whose son, Eitan Horn, is among the 20 hostages believed to be alive in Gaza, said he was not yet ready to accept that the captives were going to be released. “Only once I see them, I’ll know that it’s over,” he said.
Three hospitals in the Tel Aviv area said they were preparing to receive the hostages; the remains of those who died in captivity are also expected to be returned to Israel.
The hostages are among some 250 people seized on Oct. 7, 2023, the bloodiest day in Israeli history, when Hamas led a surprise attack on southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people, most of them civilians.
In agreeing to free the hostages, a badly weakened Hamas took a significant risk, giving up much of the remaining leverage it has over Israel. The group had long said it was willing to release the hostages in exchange for the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a permanent end to the war and the release of Palestinian prisoners, but the agreement guarantees only the prisoner release and a troop pullback.
Mr. Trump expressed confidence that the deal would produce a “lasting peace.” As for rebuilding Gaza, Mr. Trump said, “I think you’re going to see some tremendous countries stepping up and putting up a lot of money.”
World leaders also welcomed the deal, but emphasized that many contentious issues still needed to be negotiated to guarantee a permanent end to the fighting and a peaceful future for Gaza.
Speaking at a meeting of foreign ministers in Paris, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said that disarming Hamas was an “essential step” for a lasting cease-fire. He said that France was ready to play a role in a “stabilization force” in Gaza and that Gaza’s postwar government should “completely exclude Hamas but fully integrate the Palestinian Authority.” The authority now partly administers the West Bank.
Mr. Guterres, the U.N. leader, expressed hope that the deal would create a “path toward ending the occupation, recognizing the right to self-determination of the Palestinian people and achieving a two-state solution.”
Mr. Trump, speaking at the cabinet meeting, said he had no opinion on the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. “I don’t have a view,” he said. “I’m going to go with what they agree to.”
David M. Halbfinger, Gabby Sobelman, Rawan Sheikh Ahmad, Johnatan Reiss, Aaron Boxerman and Zolan Kanno-Youngs contributed reporting.
Adam Rasgon is a reporter for The Times in Jerusalem, covering Israeli and Palestinian affairs.
Liam Stack is a Times reporter who covers the culture and politics of the New York City region.
Michael Levenson covers breaking news for The Times from New York.
A version of this article appears in print on Oct. 10, 2025, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Joy, Relief and Worry as Gaza Truce Nears.
See more on: The Israel-Hamas War, Hamas
本文於 修改第 1 次
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巴勒斯坦的悲歌與戰鬥進行曲 - 鍾喬
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茉莉樹下的抵抗
鍾喬，2025-09-28
首先，要以一首令人不忍繼續閱讀，卻又必須被公開朗讀的詩作，作為書寫的開始。詩行如下：
如果我必須死去
那麼你必須活下來
活下來 講述我的故事
2023 年12月7日是一個值得紀念的日子。這一天，被喻為「加薩一把琴」的知名詩人、44歲的作家及學者雷法特．阿拉雷爾(Refaat Alareer)，和妻兒共同死於以色列的空襲，這不僅令所有巴勒斯坦人震驚悲憤，海外文壇學界一樣惋惜哀嘆。
而他在死前寫下的一首詩裡，似乎已預知了自己的死亡。
殺戮就是這樣展開，如何說抵抗呢？手無寸鐵的肉軀，恰時時刻刻面臨滅絕式武器的威脅；而且就在自家門前，侵略者公然以掃蕩恐怖份子的名義，滅絕平民百姓、老幼婦孺、土地與家園。
詩人已死。然而，他預留下詩行：用很日常且平白的文字，認定自己的死亡是必須的死去，誰令他必須死去？為何必須死去？一切都只因為他為保衛自己的家園與祖國，卻必須受到入侵者的荼毒致死，最後劊子手當真動手，不僅僅是脅迫，而且將他妻子與孩子連同詩人，一起埋葬在炸裂的斷垣殘壁間！他寫這首詩，我們像似親眼目睹他的靈魂在淌血，這同時，靈魂也語重心長地表示，肉體死亡但精神存在，不僅僅是生存，這就需要有人繼續書寫巴勒斯坦的詩行，一如證詞！
所以，如何活下來，死去的如何繼續活下來…必須死去也意味著必須活下來，這非比尋常。因為，必須活下來，繼續講述巴勒斯坦從廢墟與殘磚粹瓦間，撿拾的日常記憶：街道、清晨、麵包、歌聲與和藹鄰居的笑容！當然，在殘酷的季節裡，血沿著堆積起來的沙塵，爬上殘磚的隙縫間，吟唱著末世的悲歌與輓歌，卻也有晨曦照射進黑暗的帳篷，揭示新的一天的重新誕生！
雜沓的腳蹤沿著蔚藍海岸朝向未知，被迫離鄉的加薩居民，老幼婦孺不分彼此，都在飢餓線的臨界點，下一步將朝向或許的死亡；所以，死亡在加薩必須是新生的開始，以自身瘦骨嶙峋的胸膛作為淌血的印刻版，刻下字句或詩行，作為流離者埋在殺戮記憶中的控訴與證言！
所以，詩行繼續寫著：
請你賣掉我的東西
然後買一塊布
和一些線繩
白色的布，做成一只長尾巴風箏
加薩某個地方，有一個孩子
會向天上凝望
她在尋找
天堂裏的父親
她的父親，在大火中離去
來不及向任何人告別
甚至來不及
和自己的身體告別
當這個孩子看到
你為我做的風箏，在天上飛
她會相信，天使就在那裏
為她帶回愛
讀著詩人的詩行，我也以幾行詩作為回應。我這樣記述某些詩句，抄寫如下：
真主的僕人在路上小心翼翼地走著
蒙昧的人呼喚他們
他們回頭答曰：「和平（Al-salam）」
《可蘭經 》第二十五章三十六節
這首詩，要這樣開始
因為，我們都是蒙昧的人
蒙昧自己看出去的視線
在遮蔽的沙塵下
在爆裂的炸彈中
在斷壁的殘垣中
在扭曲的榨取中
在欺世的宣傳中
在霸權的操弄中
我們發現自己成了蒙昧的人
Al-salam 是 和平
和平 是 Al-salam
朗誦：「如果詩人必須死去
你們必須活下來！」
聲音呼喚 別再蒙昧
活下來的人，去找尋孩子母親與父親的屍骨
追隨他們一家的靈魂
和他們一起大聲朗讀
飄在加薩天空下的詩行
這時貓咪加入朗讀的行列
像似看見，詩人留下的風箏
飄在每一戶人家的屋簷上
Al-salam Al-salam
聲音不曾終止
紀念詩人 看見天空
巴勒斯坦的天空
詩人身影 如風箏飛翔
華山【拱廳】四根水泥柱，似乎傳達著天地間，人在四季流轉節氣中的聲息；然則，這種屬於台灣民間鼓花陣中，對於天地人間的空間想像，似乎也已在遠方的一片斷垣殘壁間，失去了生命的絲毫氣息！這一天，我約了兩位母親來排練一首我寫的詩：《孩子》。這首詩，寫給在轟炸中不斷失去生存與希望的加薩孩子；當然，寫了孩子一定也會寫母親。詩中，有三行這麼寫著：
然而，孩子的親生母親
被埋進瓦礫堆中
在瞬間爆裂的燒夷彈中
這裡既有母親是被哈瑪斯綁架的女人，也有在地道裡發現這位母親的孩子，餵給飢腸轆轆的女人僅存的一口羊奶，因為孩子想起自己的親生母親，被綁架來的母親的國家，聚集了毀滅性武器，炸得粉身碎骨且不見屍首何處！孩子不懂得仇恨，更不被仇恨所征服，他只是感到母親是萬物的聲息，所以不讓敵人母親忍受飢餓與絕望！
詩，是這樣寫的；當詩這樣寫實，加薩已經再次淪為原本擁有美好記憶的墳場！在這個日午，Amel—加薩母親來到《拱廳》的四根柱下排練，台灣母親---劉敏，比Amel早一步就到達作準備，換上簡便隨身的舞蹈服裝。兩位母親的相遇，揭開了誦詩作為文化行動，作為一個台灣劇場與詩作者，對於加薩的深入關切。他們分享了各自披在身上的格子披巾！
猶記得，誦詩發生前幾些時日，我這麼聯絡了這兩位異國母親。「來為加薩受難的孩童起舞吧！」通訊中，我這樣和台灣母親---劉敏說。她連忙回訊：「這需要見面深入討論」。
我們怎麼開始？她問。我說：來自加薩的母親---Amel，我從今年春天，有幾回和她女兒上戲劇課。我請她將我寫的一首詩：【孩子】翻譯為阿拉伯語，她充滿韻律的朗讀聲跌宕起伏美感有加，很動人！
我向劉敏說：就由一位舞者母親舞蹈；另一位母親朗讀詩歌吧！我們還可以加入簡單的儀式性身體！她問：這是一場演出嗎？我說，讓我們以誦詩和舞蹈，為流離失所的加薩，展開一場文化行動吧！
經過討論，經過排練，經過幾番淚水洗滌；劉敏除了舞蹈，還創作了一幅壁畫：《母親與孩子》，儀式性的祈福與沉默的抵抗！
原本最初，約在咖啡館見面時！她拿出另一幅畫作。一個腿骨上繫著繃帶的日本軍，勉身危危站立在未知時間的空間裡。她說：我畫的是我想像中在叢林作戰受傷的父親。
她的父親是台灣人日本兵；一直以來，身分敏感。到底是被徵兵動員的受害者；還是在戰場上，為軍國戰事效命的加害者？她沒加以訴說，我恐怕她已為父親的身分，受到很大的震盪與衝擊，有很長一段時日了！
我只說：這是戰爭帶給世人的悲劇。那末，對於加薩長久飽受轟炸、殺戮、驅趕、歧視、飢餓與凌辱的平民百姓，這又是當今怎樣的一場集體創傷呢？她就發生在世人的眼前…。
現在這樣寫著，感到何等無力。正想閉眼休息，滿腦子斷垣殘壁間被坦克佔領的廢墟，坦克加裝強烈砲彈，藉爆炸據說要將更多假設性的地洞給炸掀，我們在視頻上看見的是一棟16層高樓，在瞬間轟然倒塌，是加薩的一棟民宅，大樓裡有醫院、臨時學校教室、與緊急避難設施；他們說要摧蒙面毀恐怖份子---稱作哈瑪斯，而自己才是穿軍裝的恐怖份子---稱作以色列軍人；然而，他們不承認自己的罪刑，因為有國際民主霸權為他們撐腰。他們聲稱要發動對加薩的攻勢，其實進行的是：種族滅絕，而不是戰爭。
那回相識，在寶藏巖歷史斷面後方的小咖啡座，小小的空間裡，週日安靜中無其他人，我與眼前從曾經在加薩渡過轟炸日常的母女，聊得親切且帶有問題意識！
回返後，我在筆記本中寫著：那年，在轟炸中的加薩，母親抱著剛滿周歲的女兒，不放…。母親這樣追溯往事，眉宇深鎖。抬起頭來，我繼續聆聽眼前的母親，如何在他女兒面前，和我講述他們在加薩的生死經驗，母親說，其實死亡對加薩人而言，是日常就需要面對的事情。
「我無論如何只想與孩子共生死。」她語氣絕然地說。我心頭揣著：無路可退，四個字；但，當我抬頭看著眼前的母親，卻又在他沉默的每一刻間，閱讀到她毅然的心思。於是，我想起韓國作家韓江，在【永不告別】裡，為濟州島4.3殺戮記憶 寫下的詩行：
其實，是死亡拯救了活著的人。與此同時，我的心閃過【孩子】一詩中的最後幾幾句：
世界會再開始嗎？
世界，何時再開始呢？
世界，已到達盡頭嗎？
我手上的石頭呢？孩子問
我總想韓江這句話，有其深意。我的詩行，或許是對韓江面對死亡的追問。因為，死亡通常伴隨絕望，絕望卻讓人反思新生；於是，鼓起勇氣，就問了Amel：在加薩，是亡者拯救了活著的人。伊的答覆很有親切感，卻也很犀利。伊說：我們懷著這樣的信仰，當然可貴，但事實上，在我先生的家鄉---加薩，因飢餓而死去的人，遠比轟炸致死的人，飽受更多的折磨。他們逐漸死去的折騰能喚回活著的人，重新去思考這個透過政治霸權搬弄是非，並留下血腥罪責的殘酷世界嗎？
「穿透黑暗，如何見到光明？」我問。
作為母親的Amel說：那一年，與尚幼小的malak在加薩的炮火中，每日晨昏醒或睡著都手牽手，因為不由自主地唯一決定便是；生死相伴。我也聽說，Malak的父親Hazem在加薩的家，去年在一場飛彈突襲中淪為斷垣殘壁的廢墟，更不幸的是：Hazem的母親，已在轟炸中身亡…。
那是戲劇工作坊的第一天；但我們沒有做戲劇練習。我們深入聊了很多問題，Malak 是咖啡桌上的女兒，11歲的她已有18歲的應對與機智，我想這和她的成長需在流離中見生存的真章，有密切的關聯。我們上回在聲援巴勒斯坦的【西門捷運站】口相見，她一口流利的中文演說，動人而銳利。下台後，我們相遇，她說：戲劇是她從小的最愛，於是她轉來描繪童年戲劇愛好的鉛筆畫，我和她與她母親共同規劃了她的戲劇課程。
Malak 的母親 Amel 嫁給來台的加薩學者Hazem，她自己是心理學家，在阿爾及利亞獲致心理學博士；她的家鄉在北非，她說：民間一般人都認同加薩是一個獨立自主的國家，也絲毫不排斥巴勒斯坦人；至於官方，在國際霸權的推波下，則難以自主…。
Amel 說話充滿自信，自然不缺女性與作為母親的細膩，我在和她交談中，偶而會想起法蘭茲 法農Franze Fanon這樣的第三世界抵抗心理學家，或許曾經帶給她深刻影響。因為，交談中，即便談的是孩子的教育經驗，她也經常從社會壓迫或者移民問題，切入集體創傷的問題。
她說：她很認同”Augusto Boal“的”Theatre Of The Oppressed”(波瓦 的被壓迫者劇場)！我想一定是如此吧！我期待她們母女加薩記轟炸下的記憶書寫成筆記，放進Malak 的劇場工作坊排練行程中。
我總是想：Malak 可以用身體訴說她的加薩童年；讓更多世人感知：她的成長如何在災難中轉為文化行動的動人表述。這件事，對於malak 會是一件青春生命中的難忘的記憶：雖然距離他藉此得以登場演出，還有一段距離；然則劇場始終是身體對世界打開的歷程！現在的世界是春天，卻是無比殘酷的春天！因為，Malak再也回不去他的家鄉加薩了！有一次，在談話中，我無意間問到這個敏感的話題！青春心智早熟的她，竟然用標準的中文口語回覆我：從我出生，這就是注定了！我們就是這樣從這裡到那裡，沒有固定生活！
春天呢? 巴勒斯坦的春天呢?我問著！她的父親Hazem也在這時走進我們相識的共同圈中！
這樣的悲傷，圍繞在一個客居台灣的加薩家庭中，我開始與這個家庭的父親Hazem通訊聯絡；因為，在一回排練中，Amel 向我說：她先生有一本相關家鄉加薩的書，想在台灣出版。就這樣，我陸續收到他寄來《茉莉樹下》的書稿，書寫他在台作為國際政治學者，如今以流離海外，再也無法返鄉的傷慟！Hazem和他的一家人，是我見過帶著流離者的勇氣，與這世界的愛恨細膩對待，並且毫不退卻與妥協的一家五口人！他們內心深處對世界不熄的愛，讓我以認識他們一家人為榮，為他們的存在感到驕傲！
Hazem，中文筆名安海正。我希望他書寫一篇追溯家園如何在炮火下淪為殘磚碎瓦的文章，作為書稿出版前的見證；他寄來幾張照片，場景令人心碎，特別當他談及母親時，他在文章中寫著：
2023年12月5日。那一天牆壁倒在她身上。以色列人轟炸了我們家附近的清真寺，衝擊波震倒了我們花園牆的一部分。我母親在外面，像每天早上一樣查看她的植物。混凝土壓碎了她的肋骨，刺穿了她的肺。她沒有尖叫—我的兄弟們後來告訴我這些，他們的聲音透過斷斷續續的電話連線傳來時都破碎了。即使血液充滿她的胸腔，她反而試著安慰他們。
美麗的家人，在家鄉淪為砲火下的廢墟之際，將遠方故土在生死掙扎中的經歷，化作文化抵抗的行動表現出來…無論書寫、劇場或誦詩，每一瞬間都是稍縱即逝的亙遠…我這樣想。
Hazem參與《龍應台基金會》主辦的《台北國際和平論壇》。於他而言，這又是一個為近日全面瀕臨以色列入侵，展開抗爭性論述的日子。他的對話對象是以色列和平學校的主任Roi；這一天，我特別前去聆聽。
論壇展開前，Hazem前來和我打招呼；我和他談著他將出版的新書：《茉莉樹下》幾些中文翻譯文句，需要被重新整合的問題。他直說感謝我的關切，眉宇間卻透露些許焦慮。他說：「等今天這場對話結束，我才能安然對待書籍的出版。」他說，他昨夜沒睡好，因為起來修改這場和平對話的發言稿，將原本要講述母親與家人在轟炸中喪身與流離的經歷，改為加薩作為被侵略者，如何面對和平倡議的議題。
談話中，他原本笑著的臉頰，變得眉宇深鎖…。於是，一場和平論壇，以多樣或也可以稱做多元的面貌展開，最後輪到壓軸章節，以色列和平工作者—Roi和加薩學者、作家與行動者Hazem的對話。
這場對話，在相互尊重、信任卻帶有緊急性張力的狀態下展開；這樣的形容，絲毫不帶誇張地描述。Roi 不知是習慣身姿自然或驅使自己放鬆，不是翹腿就是大幅跨腳；一旁的Hazem卻顯得身姿慎重與深思。可以感覺到彼此微妙的對待關係。對話展開之際，第一次有張力的瞬間，是Roi以色列和平工作者身分，提及「和平對話」是一種雙方不斷參與的過程時；Hazem的表情沒有順其自然的表示贊成這樣的述說。他認真地說：不是我想阻斷對話的可能，而是我想說的是，我們的處境非常困難跟複雜，有一方什麼都有，另一方一無所有，那我們要有怎樣的對話呢？
作為巴勒斯坦人；作為在被壓迫中流離失所，並超越極限地喪失生命與家園的加薩人；Hazem這席話嘔心瀝血！並導致他在相關兩人是否可以為和平攜手合作時，表達了了關鍵性的態度。Hazem堅決的表示:「我不行，因為這件事只能在以色列進行。來自加薩的我，必須面臨更現實的問題。你如何跟在戰火中的加薩人民談和平？」
會議後，我和Hazem的家人一起參與主辦單位的晚宴！我們圍坐一桌。他妻子Amel 帶著和藹的語氣問Hazem，為何要表示不能與Roi在和平倡議上攜手合作呢? Hazem和我說了：從個人的角度談合作，他無論如何都很樂意；但在公開的論壇上，巴勒斯坦是一個被以色列入侵的國家，現實上，兩者的和平使命很難達成合作的實質！
我想起他在自己書寫的著作中的一段話：
這種有偏見的框架使加薩人失去人性，將他們簡化為統計數字或威脅，而不是有家庭、夢想和激勵每個人的相同基本安全渴望的人。此類報導扭曲了佔領的現實，以阻礙對正義的有意義倡導的方式塑造公眾輿論，讓政府更容易忽視他們的責任。
這讓我更深體會到甚麼是流離失所中的無路可退…！我想著，認識Hazem。因為，有機會和他妻子--Amel與女兒--Malak，共同在劇場渡過幾些排練與演出的日子。他在命名為：《茉莉樹下：加薩回憶錄》這本即將於來年出版的書的序言中，發人深省地述說：
在大屠殺粉碎我們對正常生活的一切認知之前，加薩有著近乎神聖的節奏。日常生活承載著由傳統、社區，以及只有在某處生活了好幾代的人才能創造出的那種低調美感所建構的寧靜和諧。
每個早晨都以相同的方式開始。新鮮烘焙麵包的香氣會與鹹鹹的地中海海風混合，光是那股香味就能喚醒半個鄰里。我們的母親和祖母會在黎明前起身揉麵團、照料烤爐，在我們大部分人還沒睜開眼睛之前就創造出每一天的基礎。
這席話，讀來令人屏息，因為是「在大屠殺粉碎…」之前；那麼世人如何想像：本周以來，大量以色列的坦克駛進加薩，展開無情掃蕩後，遺留下來家園毀滅與喪生殘垣的景象呢？不知為何，這一刻我腦海中閃過一個強烈的畫面：
一輛堆滿瓢盆與破舊家用品以及孩子與落難襤褸男女的貨車，恰卡在一個砲彈炸毀後凹下去的坡道馬路上，看似動彈不得地催足馬力…一個將鍋蓋蓋在自己額頭上的鬍渣男人，突而闖進鏡頭中。他激動地拉開嗓門啜泣著：我有25個家人都已死於轟炸，昨夜我的妻子與三歲的孩子，就死在我的懷裡，身上有砲彈的鋼刺和餘燼；為什麼不是我死？為什麼？為什麼不是我死？他追問了好幾次。而後，嚎啕大哭：這樣子不是活著，不如一顆炸彈飛到我身體，讓我粉身碎骨不見屍首…。
我不忍再想下去，關掉腦海中的視頻。將視線回到在論壇講壇上，心想著：在反對讓台灣捲入殘酷滅絕的軍事行動之際，出來呼籲和平，竟成為一件風險；這真是天大的諷刺，究其因，無非擁權者剛愎自用，凡是我質、拒斥對話！問題是：地球會公轉，恰如客觀現實，不會只繞著自己轉。悲哀的是，和平訴求道理簡單，權力牽連卻永遠繞著敵對意識迴旋，一旦戰事臨頭，犧牲的將是期待和平的眾生？
和平，固然源自呼籲；呼籲之外，如何讓和平到來呢？需要具體的方案，才得以讓讓和平在戰爭危機面前捍衛平民的生存權！ Hazem(安海正)有一席話，發人深省：
以烏克蘭為例，提醒台灣軍事力量有限，戰爭帶來的毀滅遠大於勝利意義。他呼籲，台灣應拓展對話與和平管道，避免戰爭，保護人民安全與生活。安海正強調，國際經驗應用在台灣，首要目標是維護和平，而非模仿他國軍事模式。
繼續，在路上行走。追趕著或許已經在砲火中喪失的茉莉花樹…。Hazem的妻子Amel在視頻中探索加薩的集體創傷，是長久驅離、佔領與脅迫下，所形成的種族殺戮的問題，非一日之寒；她與先生與孩子全家人勇於投身保護巴勒斯坦家園的行列。「巴勒斯坦人所遭遇的是集體創傷，和西方一般提及的個體創傷，有著很大的區別，主要這並非個別得憂鬱症，而是生活在壓迫體制下的創傷…主流媒體長期以來，甚至將巴勒斯坦人去人類化…」這是她的真知灼見。滅絕式的殺戮和個別的報復，在人類高呼保障人權與自由的同時，如何不僅僅從西方人權的個人主義式關切出發，而在生產反殖民、反霸權的前提下，從第三世界的角度出發，回返集體受難意涵下，被戰爭剝奪生存權利的加薩平民，尋回她/他們家園與國度的抵抗與共同創傷的療癒。
我和Amel表示：今年以來，我和釜山的劇場工作者，也在劇場創作的前提下，針對東亞國家暴力在島對島的殺戮記憶中，展開現場的田野。這樣的經歷，讓我重新又思考，如何從1990年代開始，親臨白色恐怖受難現場或閱讀口述歷史經驗中，學習到她所提及的集體創傷與個體創傷的差異。
我們在六張犁墳場與綠島監獄，再次訪談白色恐怖政治受難的親身經歷，主要是將這樣的現場與濟州島受難經歷，進行參照與劇場身體表現的對照；1993年，六張犁葬岡上的201座墳墓的發掘，恰與濟州島在歷經40多年掩埋後，又重新現身山洞的骨骸，有著相同的冷戰反共肅殺下，所導致的國家集體暴力的結構性意涵。
2018年，韓國總統 文在寅在4.3事件 70週年追悼式上，有這麼一段話，發人深省；像似時間彼岸，從濟州受難的每一個角落拋來的警鐘聲響，回聲著：
就連一道石牆、一朵凋落的山茶花也知道濟州的那段苦痛歲月，人們在這七十年間持續尋找探問：這塊土地還有春天嗎？記憶中濟州島的春天還在嗎？綠島早春四月的野百合呢？
是的。遠離加薩神聖土地家鄉，Amel 、Malak與Hazem 還有更多我們識或不識的巴勒斯坦人，或許當下便在問：
春天呢？明年此時，加薩的春天還會再來嗎？春天裡，家園裡已被砲火粉碎的茉莉花樹呢？
我想起Hezem的那席話：我如何與殺戮及驅逐下頻臨死亡的加薩家鄉人民，談論關於和平的問題呢？和平，要去追問以色列種族滅絕的炮彈、坦克與子彈…。
我抬起頭，彷彿看見遠方一望無際的晴空下，浮著六萬五千一百七十四座刻有阿拉伯文的墳碑，是天空中的墓碑，追悼在加薩失去生命的65194個受難的身體與靈魂；每一座，都唱誦著韻文跌宕起伏的巴勒斯坦詩行。時空中，彷彿也傳來雷法特．阿拉雷爾(Refaat Alareer)詩行的最後幾句：
如果我必須死去
那麽讓它
帶來希望，讓它
成為一個傳奇
＊作者為詩人、作家、劇場工作者，80年代中期投身報導寫作，參與社會運動。
（相關報導：
專訪》「這不是戰爭，而是種族滅絕」 旅台巴勒斯坦學者安海正談加薩真實處境 ｜ 更多文章 ）
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