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中東風雲錄--開欄文：埃及的加薩重建方案 -- Al Jazeera
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下文為本欄開欄文。
埃及的加薩重建方案 -- Al Jazeera
What is Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza?
Arab League endorses Egyptian proposal that provides alternative to US President Trump’s plan to take over Gaza.
Al Jazeera Staff, 03/04/25
Arab states have adopted Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, providing a potential path forward after Israel’s devastating war on the Palestinian enclave.
Egypt unveiled its plan on Tuesday while hosting an Arab League Summit in its capital Cairo.
The plan offers an alternative to United States President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the Gaza Strip be depopulated to “develop” the enclave, under US control, in what critics have called ethnic cleansing. Under the Egyptian plan, Gaza’s Palestinian population would not be forced to leave the territory.
Trump had insisted that Egypt and Jordan take Palestinians forced out of Gaza by his plan, but that was quickly rejected, and the US has signalled that it is open to hearing what an Arab plan for Gaza’s post-war reconstruction would be.
Speaking at the start of the summit, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said that Trump would be able to achieve peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Here’s everything you need to know about the plan, based on Al Jazeera’s own reporting, as well as drafts of the plan reported on by the Reuters news agency and the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram.
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What does the Egyptian plan call for?
The plan consists of three major stages: Interim measures, reconstruction and governance.
The first stage would last about six months, while the next two phases would take place over a combined four to five years.
The aim is to reconstruct Gaza – which Israel has almost completely destroyed – maintain peace and security and reassert the governance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the territory, 17 years after it was kicked out following fighting between Fatah, which dominates the PA, and Hamas.
How does the plan aim to rebuild Gaza?
A six-month interim period would require a committee of Palestinian technocrats – operating under the management of the PA – to clear the rubble from Salah al-Din Street, which is the main north-south highway in the Gaza Strip.
Once the roads are clear, 200,000 temporary housing units would be built to accommodate 1.2 million people and about 60,000 damaged buildings restored.
According to the blueprint, longer-term reconstruction requires an additional four to five years after the interim measures are completed. Over that span, the plan aims to build at least 400,000 permanent homes, as well as rebuilding Gaza’s seaport and international airport.
Gradually, basic provisions such as water, a waste system, telecommunication services and electricity would also be restored.
The plan further calls for the establishment of a Steering and Management Council, which would be a financial fund supporting the interim governing body in Gaza.
In addition, conferences will be held for international donors to provide the necessary funding for reconstruction and long-term development in the Strip.
Who would be in charge of Gaza?
The plan calls for a group of “independent Palestinian technocrats” to manage affairs in Gaza, in effect replacing Hamas.
The technocratic government would be responsible for overseeing humanitarian aid and would pave the way for the PA to administer Gaza, according to el-Sisi.
Speaking at Tuesday’s summit, PA President Mahmoud Abbas said that an election could take place next year if circumstances allowed.
On the security front, Egypt and Jordan have both pledged to train Palestinian police officers and deploy them to Gaza. The two countries have also called on the United Nations Security Council to consider authorising a peacekeeping mission to oversee governance in Gaza until reconstruction is complete.
How much is this going to cost?
Egypt is calling for $53 bn to fund the reconstruction of Gaza, with the money distributed over three phases.
In the first six-month phase it would cost $3bn to clear rubble from Salah al-Din Street, construct temporary housing and restore partially damaged homes.
The second phase would take two years and cost $20bn. The work of rubble removal would continue in this phase, as well as the establishment of utility networks and the building of more housing units.
Phase three would cost $30bn and take two and a half years. It would include completing housing for Gaza’s whole population, establishing the first phase of an industrial zone, building fishing and commercial ports, and building an airport, among other services.
According to the plan, the money will be sourced from a variety of international sources including the UN and international financial organisations as well as foreign and private sector investments.
Is the plan going to work?
There are still a number of variables that could complicate the plan. Perhaps most importantly, it is unclear whether Hamas, Israel or the US will agree to it.
Hamas welcomed the reconstruction plan, and has previously agreed to a technocratic government. But it is less clear if it will accept the return of the PA, which itself would face the perception from its critics that it has returned to Gaza on the back of Israel’s tanks.
Hamas may be willing to discuss its removal from governance, but is adamantly against its disarmament – something the Egyptian plan adopted by the Arab League did not discuss.
Israel has made it clear that this is a red line, and that Hamas will not be allowed to keep its weapons. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also said that he will not allow the PA to return to Gaza.
There is also the question of whether Trump will abandon his idea of a US-controlled “Middle East Riviera” for the Egyptian plan. It is difficult to predict what Trump’s position will be, particularly if Israel signals its opposition to the Egyptian plan.
What has the response been so far?
In response to Egypt’s plan, Israel said that Arab states needed to “break free from past constraints and collaborate to create a future of stability and security in the region”.
Instead, Israel continues to back Trump’s Gaza displacement plan – which echoes a longstanding call from the Israeli far-right to depopulate Gaza.
Egypt called Israel’s response “unacceptable”, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty describing the Netanyahu government’s position as “stubborn and extremist”.
Abdelatty said it would be impossible to see peace in the region without an independent Palestinian state. “No single state should be allowed to impose its will on the international community,” he added.
The White House continues to stand by Trump’s plan for Gaza, but said it would welcome collaboration with regional partners – except Hamas.
“While the President stands by his bold vision for a post-war Gaza, he welcomes input from our Arab partners in the region. It’s clear his proposals have driven the region to come to the table rather than allow this issue to devolve into further crisis,” White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said.
“President Trump has been clear that Hamas cannot continue to govern Gaza,” he added.
相關閱讀：
Arab leaders endorse Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan
European leaders back 'realistic' Arab plan for Gaza
For Israel, ceasefire is a continuation of war by other means
The Egyptian Gaza plan: A deadly trap for Israel and the US
The Egyptian plan for postwar Gaza is a good starting point—but it needs changes
本文於 修改第 3 次
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伊戰撤軍決議的法律層面分析 – J. FitzGerald/K. Epstein
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請參考：
* Latest Analysis: War with Iran
* Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear Project
Trump hits back at 'unpatriotic' vote after House rebukes him over Iran
James FitzGerald/Kayla Epstein, 06/04/26
US President Donald Trump has hit back at lawmakers who voted to send him a rebuke over the war in Iran, calling them "unpatriotic".
On Wednesday, the US House of Representatives passed a measure seeking to halt Trump from taking further military action amid growing opposition to the war.
In a post on Truth Social, the president wrote: "Yesterday, in a meaningless vote, the House voted, 4 bad Republicans and all of the Dumocrats, to limit my War Powers, right in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing."
It is unclear how much legal force the House's measure will have. The White House has dismissed its merits.
It has also described the move as an unconstitutional attempt to restrict presidential power.
The vote, which passed 215-208, was to adopt the war powers resolution, which would require Trump to withdraw US forces or seek congressional approval for the conflict.
The road to actual enforcement would involve the legislation clearing several thorny political, procedural, and legal hurdles.
Nonetheless, the vote sent an unusually blunt message from Congress to the White House.
"There's a political impact, because a majority of one House of the Congress have gone on record, in an actual vote, that the US armed forces need to be withdrawn from hostilities in the Persian Gulf," said Michael Glennon, a professor of constitutional and international law at Tufts University.
"Congress is in effect saying: now, we really, really, really, really think this is unlawful, and you need to get out," Glennon said.
The measure considered was a concurrent resolution -- meaning that if an identical version is also passed by the Republican-controlled US Senate, it would not require the president's signature.
And even if that did occur, it could face a legal challenge from Trump.
Meanwhile, if the Senate opts to tweak the language, it becomes what is known as a joint resolution - which would require Trump's signature. The president would likely veto it, and Congress does not have enough votes to override him.
Trump's post on Thursday morning went on to say: "The Democrats are fueled by Trump Derangement Syndrome. They would rather have our Country fail than give me another, of many, victories.
"The four Republicans, that's a whole other story - They're GRANDSTANDERS! They should be ashamed of themselves."
This was the fourth attempt by the House to rein in Trump's war powers. The Senate advanced a similar resolution in May but has yet to hold a full floor vote.
Some of Trump's critics in Congress argue that Trump is already in violation of the War Powers Resolution. That federal law prohibits the president from deploying troops for military action for more than 60 days, without Congressional approval. Trump has passed the 60-day deadline, but his administration has argued that the restriction is unconstitutional.
Despite being seen as largely symbolic, the passage of Wednesday's resolution adds to the pressure on the White House to find an end to the war, as petrol prices have spiked and public opposition to the war has increased.
Sixty-four percent of registered voters believed Trump was wrong to go to war with Iran, compared to 34% who believed he made the right call, a New York Times/Siena poll taken in May suggested.
The poll suggested that support for Trump's decision was divided along partisan lines; 93% of Democrats believed Trump was wrong, while 70% of Republicans believed Trump was correct. However, 73% of independent voters - often a bellwether group in national elections - opposed the war, polling indicated.
The vote also marked the latest sign of division within Trump's Republican Party, coming just days after a revolt by conservatives in Congress led his administration to pull back plans for a $1.8b "anti-weaponization" fund for political allies.
The four Republicans who attracted Trump's ire were Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett, and Warren Davidson, who joined a united front of Democrats. Democrat Jared Golden of Maine, who had previously voted against similar measures, gave his support this time.
"Congress alone declares war, that's something certainly we need to be protective of," Barrett, a Republican from Michigan, said. Asked if he was worried about retribution from Trump for his vote, he said: "I vote my conscience for what I think is right and willing to accept that."
本文於 修改第 1 次
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美國眾議院通過伊戰撤軍決議 – Lisa Mascaro
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請參考：
With Trump in a holding pattern on Iran war, allies and critics worry he risks getting boxed in
此「決議」只有「表態」性質，並無「強制力」。反正川痞也習慣了，多挨一記耳光？沒差。
House approves war powers resolution to halt military action against Iran, in a rebuke of Trump
LISA MASCARO, 06/04/26
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House for the first time Wednesday approved a war powers resolution that would halt the U.S. military action against Iran, defying President Donald Trump as a handful of Republicans joined with Democrats to end the three-month-long conflict that has reordered politics at home and abroad.
House Speaker Mike Johnson had tried to prevent an outcome that would show the mounting opposition to the war, abruptly shutting down floor action two weeks ago when the resolution was on the verge of approval. But displeasure has only grown as the conflict drags on and as Trump struggles to negotiate a plan for peace.
"Enough is enough," said Rep. Gregory Meeks of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who led the effort.
"It is time for the president to do the right thing," he said. "The people are tired of suffering because of his war of choice — suffering at the gas pump, suffering at the supermarkets."
The roll call Wednesday was 215-208, but next steps are uncertain. Trump would likely reject any measure from Congress to limit his commander-in-chief authority. Still, the tally, with four Republicans joining Democrats, was a rebuke of the president's war strategy, and cheers erupted in the House chamber.
Opposition to war grows
It's the fourth time the House has tried to curb the U.S. war against Iran. The Senate advanced its own war powers resolution last month when a handful of GOP senators broke ranks with the Republican president in a rare show of political pushback from his party.
Each time Democrats have pushed forward the war powers resolution, the vote tallies have inched higher as political unease with the U.S. war swells. Trump had campaigned for the White House on a promise to end U.S. entanglements abroad and focus more on domestic issues, but the war has shifted attention back to the Middle East.
Johnson insisted Trump is "laser focused" on the domestic front, particularly ahead of the midterm elections that will determine control of Congress.
The speaker said he spent three hours at the White House with the president this week and Trump is calling on allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume the flow of commerce.
Since the U.S. joined Israel in launching the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran, Americans have seen gas prices spike at the pumps, adding to inflationary pressure on consumer spending.
Iran has been able to interrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for a large segment of the world's oil, natural gas and related products such as fertilizer.
"We're working on that final piece," said Johnson, R-La. "The entire world has an interest in the Strait of Hormuz being reopen for commerce. That what he's working on."
While a ceasefire in the conflict was declared in April, it remains uneasy and uncertain. Talks for a more durable end to the fighting have dragged, increasingly complicated by Israel's broadening war with Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. Meanwhile, military strikes between the U.S and Iran continue to flare.
Congress exerts its war powers authority
The war powers resolution from the House would not immediately stop the war, but it would provide a symbolic — if not legal — step against further military action.
The resolution next goes to the Senate, where four Republican senators last month joined Democrats in advancing a similar measure to curtail the U.S. campaign against Iran. The Senate has yet to take a final vote to approve or reject its own war powers resolution.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Wednesday at a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that the Iranians would think that the administration's "hands are going to be tied" if Congress approved a war powers resolution. He said they would think "we won't be able to do anything to them, so why make a deal?"
It's not the only action Congress is taking in the national security arena as Democrats, in the minority, work to peel off Republican support for measures beyond the war against Iran.
The House also voted Wednesday on another Democratic-led effort, a procedural step toward a measure that would authorize U.S. support for Ukraine's military operations as it battles Russia and would help reconstruct the war-torn country. That vote is expected later this week. The House also expected to consider a war powers resolution to block U.S. action in Lebanon.
While Congress has the authority under the Constitution to declare war, the president also has power as the commander in chief to engage in military action, creating a legal dispute over which branch of government has ultimate say in matters of war and peace. If Senate joins the House to approve the resolution, it could set the stage for a fresh legal test of war powers.
Under the war powers act, the White House has a 60-day window to seek approval from Congress for military action. The administration, however, has indicated that because a ceasefire has been declared in the current conflict in Iran, the hostilities have ceased.
Associated Press writer Ben Finley contributed to this report.
本文於 修改第 3 次
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美、伊「和議」雙方都在拿翹 - AFP新聞團隊
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請參考：
* Oil prices surge on reports that Iran has cut off communication with US (2026/06/02)
* Iran halting indirect talks with US over Israel's Lebanon incursion, Tasnim says
* Iran attacks damage 20 US military sites since start of war, satellite images show
川瘋「既要面子；又要裏子」的痞子習氣，最後勢必落個「兩頭空」。在這個過程中，他不但搞得天怒人怨，還造成中東地區生靈塗炭。咒罵之餘，我只能盼望川瘋孫子輩中有一、兩個「沒屁眼」的；雖然他本人會毫不在意，但這種「報應」至少足以為後世戒。
伊朗充其量不過一窩土匪，既然自認為吃定了老川，當然就順勢得理不饒人。不過，擦槍走火的風險永遠不能排除；別應了「俱傷」甚或「俱焚」的老話。
Iran says does not trust US as Trump toughens terms
AFP teams in Tehran, Washington, Beirut, Jerusalem, 06/01/26
Tehran (AFP) – Iran's chief negotiator warned on Sunday the United States was not to be trusted, saying Tehran would not agree to any deal with Washington unless it fully secured Iranian rights.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's remarks came as reports emerged that US President Donald Trump had sent a tougher peace proposal back to Iran, and underlined the rift that the parties still need to close.
Any tweaks to the draft could further delay an agreement to formally end the Middle East war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of fraught negotiations marked by sharp rhetoric and occasional flare-ups of violence.
Iran was already in talks with the United States about the fate of its nuclear programme in February when the US and Israel launched air and missile strikes that wiped out much of the Islamic republic's senior leadership.
And, while Tehran has long insisted that its nuclear programme is for purely civilian ends, the United States and its Western allies suspect it aims to develop a weapon.
The New York Times and Axios reported on Saturday that Trump had sent back a "tougher" new framework to be considered by Iran, though details remain unclear.
Trump has said his priorities include stopping Iran from developing any nuclear weapon and reopening the Hormuz shipping lane, which Iran has blockaded since the war began.
"The one guarantee that I have to have is that there will be no nuclear weapons. They've agreed to that, and it was very interesting," he told his daughter-in-law Lara Trump in an interview on her Fox News show.
Tehran, however, has previously cast doubt on Trump's assertions and the sides remain far apart on key issues.
"We will not approve any agreement until we are certain that the rights of the Iranian people have been upheld," Ghalibaf said in a video broadcast on state television.
According to the Tasnim news agency, exchanges on the text "are ongoing, with both parties regularly proposing amendments".
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, said that "until a clear conclusion is reached... everything that is being said now is speculation", according to state TV.
Iran has said it needs the release of $12 billion in frozen assets before engaging in substantive talks on its nuclear programme, dismissing earlier Trump comments that its enriched uranium stockpile would be destroyed as "baseless", according to Iranian media.
Flare-ups
One of Washington's stated war aims was the destruction of Iran's ballistic missile programme, with General Dan Caine -- the top US military officer -- estimating in April that more than 80 percent of its missile facilities had been struck.
But CNN reported on Sunday that an analysis of satellite imagery showed Tehran has since been able to excavate 50 out of 69 tunnel entrances hit by US strikes at 18 underground missile sites.
Though daily strikes throughout Iran and the Gulf halted after Tehran and Washington agreed to a temporary ceasefire in April, there have been sporadic attacks.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards had shot down a US military drone "about to enter Iranian territorial waters", Iran's state broadcaster IRIB reported, though Washington has not confirmed the incident.
Trump is under pressure to secure a deal that would lift competing US and Iranian blockades around the Strait of Hormuz that have strangled a vital route for global oil supplies.
After Trump said Iran would charge "no tolls" on ships passing through the strait under any deal, Iranian news agency Fars cited sources saying "no such clause" existed.
Iran's ISNA news agency on Saturday quoted lawmaker Alireza Salimi as saying a plan for Iranian "management and sovereignty" over the strait -- including imposing "administrative fees" -- would soon go before parliament.
Lebanon front
Tehran has insisted that any peace deal include Lebanon, where fierce fighting continues, with Beirut accusing Israel of pursuing a "scorched-earth policy" as it expands operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
A truce between Israel and Hezbollah formally began on April 17 but it has never been observed, with both sides accusing each other of violating it.
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting Monday on the widening Israeli offensive following its capture of the strategic medieval castle of Beaufort, diplomatic sources told AFP.
Smoke billowed from the surrounding area Sunday as its flag was seen by AFP above the castle, which Israel famously used as a base during their previous two-decade occupation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the retaking of Beaufort "a dramatic shift".
Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said the castle "was not a military site", adding the raising of the Israeli flag there "should provoke the feelings of every loyal patriot".
burs-smw/amj
本文於 修改第 8 次
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美、伊代表達成初步停火協議 - Aamer Madhani等
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請參考：
* Iran promises ‘utter ruin’ if war restarts. Here’s what could happen if diplomacy fails (05/29)
* Trump Declares He Is Lifting The Naval Blockade On Iran (Updated) (05/29)
* 5 things to know about tentative US-Iran ceasefire deal
US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and launch nuclear talks
AAMER MADHANI/MATTHEW LEE/JON GAMBRELL/SAM METZ, 05/28/26
This is a locator map for the Gulf Cooperation Council member states: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo) 波斯灣合作理事會所有會員國地圖
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative agreement Thursday to extend the ceasefire in the 3-month-old war by 60 days and launch talks on Iran’s nuclear program, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter.
Iran did not immediately confirm any deal, and the official noted that President Donald Trump has yet to sign off on it.
The emerging memorandum of understanding came as the fragile ceasefire in the war between the U.S. and Iran appeared to be wavering. The latest flare-up in fighting happened less than a day earlier, when Kuwait intercepted missiles fired from Iran, according to U.S. Central Command.
The official who described the tentative agreement was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. Another U.S. official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private diplomacy, said the broad outlines of an agreement have been reached but stressed that until Trump signs off on it, there is no deal. The official said there still are questions about whether Trump will accept the proposal.
Details of the tentative pact were first reported by the news outlet Axios.
Kuwait had earlier announced an attack on its territory, and Iran said it had retaliated for strikes earlier in the week by firing on a U.S. base in an Gulf state it did not name. The Kuwaiti Foreign Ministry condemned Iran for what it called “blatant aggression," and U.S. Central Command called the attack on one of America’s top allies in the Persian Gulf an “egregious ceasefire violation.”
The exchange unfolded after U.S. officials said late Wednesday in Washington that American forces launched more strikes on Iran, shooting down four one-way attack drones that posed a threat around the Strait of Hormuz and hitting an Iranian ground-control station in Bandar Abbas that was about to launch a fifth drone.
Washington and Tehran have repeatedly accused each other of violating the seven-week ceasefire and have traded strikes throughout the week. But they have not returned to full-scale hostilities and have kept negotiating. Trump has insisted he’s confident that his administration is making headway in the talks.
On Monday, the U.S. said it conducted what the Pentagon called “self-defense” strikes on missile launch sites and minelaying boats in southern Iran.
After the latest American strikes, Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard acknowledged the attack around Bandar Abbas International Airport. The Iranian force said via the state-run IRNA news agency that it launched a retaliatory attack on the air base that launched the assaults, without specifying whether the retaliation targeted Kuwait, which is home to U.S. Army Central’s forward headquarters, air bases and a naval base.
Kuwait’s military announced that its air-defense systems intercepted incoming missiles and drones on Thursday, without detailing what had been targeted. Kuwait repeatedly came under fire from Iran and Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq before the April ceasefire began.
The announcement comes as the Middle East is on the edge and talks to end the war remain in flux.
Trump is looking for an agreement that will reopen the strait, through which about a fifth of all traded oil and natural gas once passed. He also is seeking to get Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The war has been unpopular in the U.S., and Iran’s closure of the strait has sent oil prices skyrocketing, driving up fuel prices around the world.
The Islamic Republic wants economic sanctions to be lifted and frozen assets to be released to aid its shattered economy. Iran also insists that any deal must include an end to Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.
A U.S.-brokered ceasefire went into effect in Lebanon in mid-April, and Lebanese and Israeli military officials are set to hold their first security talks Friday in Washington. But the ceasefire has been tested, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Monday that his country was stepping up attacks after Hezbollah fired fiber-optic exploding drones that struck Israeli troops in Lebanon and reached some of Israel’s northern border towns.
Tensions deepened Thursday as Israel conducted an airstrike on a southern suburb of the capital, Beirut, and other strikes in the southern coastal city of Tyre. At least 14 people were killed across the country's south.
Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Metz reported from Ramallah, West Bank. Associated Press Writer Konstantin Toropin in Washington contributed to this report.
本文於 修改第 4 次
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川瘋不得不求和之鷹派吵翻天 - Eli Lake
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請參考：
* Iran and U.S. trade new strikes as Trump dismisses pressure to end war(05/28)
* US military says it carried out 'self-defense' strikes in Iran, including on missile launch sites (此之謂「談談打打」也。)
下文對川普目前的困境有詳細報導；但本欄上一篇的「編者前言」已涵蓋其所有重點。
The Real Reason Trump Needs a Deal with Iran
Critics say the president’s peace offering hands Iran victory. But they don’t acknowledge the biggest risk of restarting the war.
Eli Lake, 05/25/26
Eli Lake is a veteran journalist of foreign affairs and national security. He is the host of Breaking History.
President Donald Trump is on the precipice of surrender in his second Iran war, according to some of his most devoted supporters. At issue is a proposed 60-day ceasefire that in theory would open the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade as the two sides work on a broader nuclear deal. The president himself is giving mixed signals. On Saturday, he said he was very close to an agreement. On Sunday, he said he had told his team “not to rush into a deal” and posted an AI-generated image of a precision-guided munition emblazoned with “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Leaks in the press suggest that the U.S.-Iran agreement would compel Trump to give Iran an economic lifeline in exchange for opening the strait. Republicans have panned the early reported details of the deal. Senator Ted Cruz posted on X that the war would be a “disastrous mistake” if it ended with “an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’—now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz.”
Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said early reports of the agreement “seem straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook,” referencing three senior Obama administration officials who helped craft the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. This prompted White House director of communications Stephen Cheung to implore Pompeo to “shut his stupid mouth and leave the real work to the professionals.”
But Trump is hearing it from all parts of his coalition. Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, on Sunday warned the president via X that the Iranian regime is lying, and that the $25 billion that the U.S. is reportedly offering in sanctions relief and unfrozen assets would be paying “tribute” to a terrorist regime. Senator Roger Wicker, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, posted Saturday on X: “The rumored 60-day ceasefire—with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith—would be a disaster.” Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham has warned throughout the weekend that ending the war now would give Iran a victory they did not earn on the battlefield.
For the president’s critics and supporters alike, it looks like Trump has lost his nerve. He is coming under a lot of pressure from within his own administration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, according to two administration officials, has quietly warned that continuing the war without opening the strait risks setting off a global financial meltdown. His approval rating has dipped to 37 percent in recent polls, the lowest of his second presidency. And his top political advisers and GOP members of Congress have warned that prolonging the Iran war would worsen the already gloomy prospects for Republicans in the midterm elections.
But there are other factors pushing the president to cut a deal. The military is running out of precision munitions and missile interceptors. This has left the U.S. and its allies vulnerable to Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles. “We have degraded Iran’s missile stocks, but not enough where they can’t threaten the Gulf,” one military official told me.
Iran and its proxies have done more than threaten. Last week, an Iranian-designed one-way attack drone hit the outer edge of the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. It caused a fire but did not affect the operations of the plant. That strike demonstrated Iran’s ability to hit sensitive infrastructure despite the early success of Operation Epic Fury.
The challenges in restarting the war are not just defensive. The U.S. is also facing a major shortfall of standoff weapons, like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which can target military facilities along Iran’s coastline well out of range of the regime’s anti-missile capabilities. While the U.S. still has plenty of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), these weapons are shorter range and must be fired from low-flying aircraft. Iran’s air defense systems are useless against America’s and Israel’s advanced weapons. But as Iran proved in April, it can still down aircraft that fly lower to the ground.
Back then, Iran fired clusters of surface-to-air missiles against U.S. aircraft using infrared, as opposed to radar, targeting. If Trump restarted the war to focus on Iran’s force posture along the Strait of Hormuz, then he would have to rely on JDAMs fired by lower-flying aircraft. It’s quite possible that the U.S. would not be as lucky as it was in April, when it rescued downed pilots before the Iranians could take them hostage.
Finally, there is the problem of Iran’s coastal facilities. The drones, short-range missiles, and speedboats Iran uses to harass and threaten international shipping are all stored in underground bunkers. To get to those targets, the U.S. would need to use the penetrator bombs like the ones dropped on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June during Operation Midnight Hammer. The U.S. still has around a thousand of these munitions, according to a military source. But many of them are needed to deter North Korea and China.
Admiral Bradley Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, hinted at the need for more of these “bunker buster” bombs in his testimony before the House Armed Services Committee last week. When asked what additional support he needs, Cooper said, “We need to invest more in hard and deeply buried targets. Everybody is going underground.”
All of this gets at a problem that has been decades in the making. The Pentagon has favored complex weapon systems that are expensive and difficult to produce quickly. Former defense secretary Bob Gates made this point to The New York Times in an interview last week. “Everybody seems to rhetorically recognize the problems with defense industrial capacity, whether it’s ship building or ammunition or anything else,” he said, “but how fast are either existing factories being expanded or new factories being built?”
The Iran war has exposed America’s neglected defense industrial base. Trump may have hoped that the war’s initial decapitation of Iran’s leadership on February 28 would have collapsed the regime entirely. But that is not what happened. Instead, Iran reestablished its capability to command and control both its proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon as well as its own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. As a result, a quick war soon dragged out into a longer one as the missiles and interceptors necessary to wage that war effectively depleted.
All of that said, it would be a mistake to say the war was entirely useless. As Cooper testified earlier this month, Iran’s own industrial base has been severely damaged. And this says nothing of the devastation wrought upon Iran’s nuclear program during Operation Midnight Hammer last summer and in the current war. A year ago, Iran was very close to enriching enough uranium for a viable nuclear warhead. Today, that capacity is rubble and ash.
But that doesn’t get the president off the hook. If this is how the war ends, then the remnants of Iran’s regime can still fire drones and missiles at its neighbors and hold the global economy hostage in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump began the war stating that his objective was to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” The president deserves great credit for eliminating the threat of Iran’s nuclear program. In doing so, he has unleashed a wounded beast that still imminently threatens America and its allies.
Eli Lake is the host of Breaking History, a new history podcast from The Free Press. A veteran journalist with expertise in foreign affairs and national security, Eli has reported for Bloomberg, The Daily Beast, and Newsweek. With Breaking History, he brings his sharp analysis and storytelling skills to uncover the connections between today’s events and pivotal moments in the past.
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本文於 修改第 2 次
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美、以、伊「和平方案」細節–Samy Magdy/Melanie Lidman
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* Rubio calls GOP criticisms of Iran-Trump emerging deal ‘absurd’
* Iran's top negotiator says Tehran will not compromise in talks with US
雙方大概各自在老虎背上都騎不住了；還是互給一個台階下吧。「說謊」或「欺騙」本來就是一場兩個人才能玩的遊戲；川痞碰上伊朗軍頭勉強算得上「棋逢對手」。暫時平息一下眾怒，免得腹背受敵；也趁機補充一下快要見底的軍火庫。
這場戰爭只是從「打打談談」進入「談談打打」的階段。川瘋不下台或不暴斃，這場角力只能落個沒完沒了的戲碼。
Details emerge of a potential Iran deal as Trump says not to rush
SAMY MAGDY/ MELANIE LIDMAN, 05/24/26
CAIRO (AP) — The United States is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, regional officials told The Associated Press on Sunday. They said details and timelines would be worked out later.
Iran has not publicly committed to giving up its uranium — a key demand of U.S. President Donald Trump — and the sides previously seemed close to a deal in recent weeks. Trump on Saturday said a deal had been “largely negotiated,” after calls with Israel and other regional allies.
“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” Trump said on social media Sunday. He said the U.S. relationship with Iran is becoming “much more professional and productive.”
The strait's reopening would begin to ease a worldwide energy crisis sparked by the surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment of Iran on Feb. 28, which led Tehran to effectively close the crucial waterway. Prices have spiked for oil, gas and several downstream products, jolting the world economy. Experts say it would take several weeks or even months for shipping and prices to recover to prewar levels.
The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports for over a month, and Trump on Sunday said the blockade “will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”
The emerging deal would include Iran giving up uranium
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a visit to India, said that “significant progress, although not final progress, has been made” in negotiations, and the world would no longer need to fear Iran getting a nuclear weapon, without elaborating.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV they were ready “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon.” Iran’s embassy in India responded to Rubio on social media, saying Tehran has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology.
Iran has always insisted its program is peaceful while enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels.
Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the two regional officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.
One official, with direct knowledge of the negotiations, said how Iran would give up the uranium would be subject to further talks during a 60-day period. Some would likely be diluted, while the rest would be transferred to a third country, the official said. Russia has offered to take it.
Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Trump has sought greater concessions from Iran than those required under a 2015 Obama-era agreement that the U.S. later withdrew from under Trump.
On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the state-run news agency that there are “narrowing differences” between the Iranian and U.S. positions, but that Iran is cautious after being attacked twice in the past year during nuclear negotiations.
Pakistani army chief Asim Munir, a key mediator, left Tehran late Saturday after more talks with Iranian officials.
The strait would reopen and Iran would be able to sell oil
Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the U.S. ending its blockade, the officials said.
The U.S. would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers, said the second official, who has been briefed on the negotiations. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds would be negotiated during the 60-day time frame, the official said.
Both officials said the draft deal includes an end to the war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.
Twelve weeks have passed since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, killing its supreme leader and other top officials. A ceasefire with Iran has held since April 7, though the sides have exchanged fire on occasion.
Several countries, including the European Union and the United Kingdom, welcomed progress on a possible deal with Iran.
Israel remains concerned over Hezbollah
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a social media post Sunday, said “President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger,” and that Trump had reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself “on every front, including Lebanon.”
Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party and part of his national security cabinet, told Israel's Army Radio that Israel is taking a “wait-and-see” approach.
Israeli officials are concerned that Hezbollah remains a serious threat to Israel and that Lebanon is ill-equipped to disarm it.
A fragile, U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect in Lebanon on April 17, but fighting has continued, mainly in the south. Hezbollah has launched daily drone and rocket attacks on Israeli forces and northern Israel, and Israel has struck targets across Lebanon while its troops remain in large swaths of the south.
More than 3,000 people have been killed in the latest round of fighting, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Additionally, 22 Israeli soldiers and a defense contractor have been killed in or near southern Lebanon, and two civilians have been killed in northern Israel, according to Netanyahu’s office.
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沙烏地阿拉伯暗地反擊伊朗-- Timour Azhari/Parisa Hafezi
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中東大戲連番上線。雖說不希望差槍走火，禍及全球；但如果能來個一翻兩瞪眼，徹底除掉伊朗或以色列兩個亂源之一；倒也未必不是大快人心的事。
Exclusive: Saudi Arabia launched covert attacks on Iran as regional war widened, sources say
Timour Azhari/Parisa Hafezi, 05/13/26
Summary
* Attacks were followed by drop in Iranian strikes on the kingdom, Reuters tally shows
* Kingdom warned Iran of further retaliation, but diplomatic channels were maintained
* Saudi-Iran engagement tested by renewed attacks from Iraq
RIYADH/DUBAI, May 12 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter and two Iranian officials said.
The Saudi attacks, not previously reported, mark the first time that the kingdom is known to have directly carried out military action on Iranian soil and show it is becoming much bolder in defending itself against its main regional rival.
The attacks, launched by the Saudi Air Force, were assessed to have been carried out in late March, the two Western officials said. One said only that they were "tit-for-tat strikes in retaliation for when Saudi (Arabia) was hit."
Reuters was unable to confirm what the specific targets were.
In response to a request for comment, a senior Saudi foreign ministry official did not address directly whether strikes had been carried out.
The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Saudi Arabia, which has a deep military relationship with the United States, has traditionally relied on U.S. military for protection, but the 10-week war has left the kingdom vulnerable to attacks that have pierced the U.S. military umbrella.
GULF ARAB STATES BEGAN HITTING BACK
The Saudi strikes underscore the widening of the conflict — and the extent to which a war that began when the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28 has drawn in the broader Middle East in ways that have not been publicly acknowledged.
Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran has hit all six Gulf Cooperation Council states with missiles and drones, attacking not only U.S. military bases but civilian sites, airports and oil infrastructure, and closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade.
The United Arab Emirates also carried out military strikes on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. Together, the Saudi and Emirati actions reveal a conflict whose true shape has remained largely hidden — one in which Gulf monarchies battered by Iranian attacks began hitting back.
But their approach has not been identical. The UAE has taken a more hawkish stance, seeking to extract a cost from Iran and engaging only rarely in public diplomacy with Tehran.
Saudi Arabia has meanwhile sought to prevent the conflict from escalating and has stayed in regular contact with Iran, including via Tehran's ambassador in Riyadh. He did not respond to a request for comment.
The senior Saudi foreign ministry official did not directly address whether a de-escalation agreement had been struck with Iran, but said: "We reaffirm Saudi Arabia's consistent position advocating de-escalation, self-restraint and the reduction of tensions in pursuit of the stability, security and prosperity of the region and its people."
STRIKES, THEN DE-ESCALATION
The Iranian and Western officials said Saudi Arabia made Iran aware of the strikes and this was followed by intensive diplomatic engagement and Saudi threats to retaliate further, which led to an understanding between the two countries to de-escalate.
Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, said retaliatory Saudi strikes on Iran, followed by an understanding to de-escalate, would "show pragmatic recognition on both sides that uncontrolled escalation carries unacceptable costs."
Such a sequence of events would show "not trust, but a shared interest in imposing limits on confrontation before it spiraled into a wider regional conflict."
The informal de-escalation took effect in the week before Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire in their broader conflict on April 7. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
One of the Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran and Riyadh had agreed to de-escalate, saying the move aimed to "cease hostilities, safeguard mutual interests, and prevent the escalation of tensions."
Long at odds, Iran and Saudi Arabia — the two leading Shi'ite and Sunni Muslim powers in the Middle East — have backed opposing groups in conflicts across the region.
A China-brokered détente in 2023 saw them resume ties, including a ceasefire between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia that has since held.
With the Red Sea remaining open to shipping, Saudi Arabia has been able to continue exporting oil throughout the conflict, unlike most Gulf states, and so has managed to remain relatively insulated.
KINGDOM AVOIDED 'FURNACE OF DESTRUCTION', SAYS PRINCE
In an op-ed in Saudi-owned Arab News over the weekend, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal captured the kingdom's calculus, writing that "when Iran and others tried to drag the kingdom into the furnace of destruction, our leadership chose to endure the pains caused by a neighbor in order to protect the lives and property of its citizens."
Saudi Arabia's strikes followed weeks of mounting tension.
At a press conference in Riyadh on March 19, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the kingdom "reserved the right to take military actions if deemed necessary."
Three days later, Saudi Arabia declared Iran's military attaché and four embassy staff members personae non gratae.
IRAN CURTAILED DIRECT HITS ON KINGDOM, SOURCES SAY
By the end of March, diplomatic contacts and the threat by Saudi Arabia to take a more hawkish approach akin to the UAE and retaliate further led to an understanding to de-escalate, the Western sources said.
From more than 105 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia in the week of March 25-31, the number fell to just over 25 between April 1-6, according to a Reuters tally of Saudi defence ministry statements.
Projectiles fired at Saudi Arabia in the days leading up to the wider ceasefire were assessed by Western sources to have originated in Iraq rather than Iran itself, indicating Tehran had curtailed direct strikes while allied groups continued to operate.
Saudi Arabia summoned Iraq's ambassador on April 12 to protest against attacks from Iraqi soil.
The Saudi-Iranian communication continued even as strains emerged at the start of the broader ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., when the Saudi defence ministry reported 31 drones and 16 missiles fired at the kingdom on April 7-8.
The spike prompted Riyadh to consider retaliation against Iran and Iraq, while Pakistan deployed fighter jets to reassure the kingdom and urged restraint as diplomacy gathered pace.
Reporting by Timour Azhari in Riyadh and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Editing by William Maclean
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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川普：停火協議「命懸一線」 - Jon Gambrell等
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這些都是協商過程中雙方必玩的：「誰先慫」和「漫天要價」等老戲碼；不但為了討價還價，也為了維持「形象」。我賭：川痞先「慫」！國內、國際壓力之外，還有「赤腳的不怕跟穿鞋的拚」這個鐵律。
Trump says Iran ceasefire is on ‘life support’ and proposes gas tax pause as strait stays closed
JON GAMBRELL, SAMY MAGDY/SEUNG MIN KIM, 05/12/26
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said the Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, which officials said included some nuclear concessions. Trump also proposed suspending the federal gas tax to help with higher fuel prices caused by the war.
President Donald Trump is heading back to China, but this time, the Iran war raises the stakes for both sides. China is the bigger purchaser of Iranian oil. Trump had hoped China would do more to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (AP Video: Nathan Ellgren) 視頻
The stalled diplomacy and recent exchanges of fire could tip the Middle East back into open warfare and prolong the worldwide energy crisis sparked by the conflict. Iran still has a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments, and America is blockading Iranian ports.
Asked at the White House if the ceasefire was still in effect, Trump said it’s on “life support.”
“I would call it the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us,” Trump added. “I didn’t even finish reading it.”
AP AUDIO: US standoff with Iran deepens and strait remains closed after Trump rejects latest proposal 音頻
President Trump is reacting to Iran’s response to the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. AP correspondent Mike Hempen reports.
Trump also said he supported a suspension of the federal tax on gasoline — just over 18 cents per gallon and 24 cents for diesel. Congress, which is controlled by Republicans, would have to approve. The tax brings in more than $23 billion each year.
His pledge came after fuel prices surged past $4.50 a gallon last week. Trump predicted that the price of oil and gas would drop “like a rock” as soon as hostilities are over.
The two sides remain far apart
Trump has demanded a major rollback of Iran’s nuclear activities, while Iran is pushing for a more limited agreement that would reopen the strait and lift the blockade ahead of further negotiations.
On Monday, Trump claimed that Iran had said it would allow the U.S. to come in and help extract its highly enriched uranium but went back on that in its latest ceasefire proposal. “They changed their mind because they didn’t put it in the paper,” he said.
Iran has not publicly agreed to give up its uranium, saying it has a right to enrich and that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.
Two regional officials told The Associated Press that Iran has offered to dilute part of its highly enriched uranium and transport the rest to a third country. Russia has previously offered to take it. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomacy.
Trump is expected to use a trip this week to China to urge President Xi Jinping to pressure Iran. Beijing is the biggest buyer of Iran’s sanctioned crude oil, giving it leverage.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched the war with Trump on Feb. 28, has also demanded that all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium be removed from the country.
He told CBS’ “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired Sunday that if that can’t be accomplished with negotiations, Israel and the U.S. agree “we can reengage them militarily.”
Iran’s proposal included far-reaching demands
Iran’s proposal asked that the U.S. recognize its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, formalizing its control over the international waterway. Iran has effectively closed the strait since the start of the war, allowing only a small number of ships to pass and charging tolls.
But experts say such an arrangement would likely violate international law that provides for freedom of navigation. That proposal is also likely to be widely rejected by the international community. The strait was open to international traffic before the war.
Iran is also demanding war reparations from the U.S., the lifting of international sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad and an end to the war between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to Iranian state TV.
Israel and Hezbollah have continued to exchange blows, mainly in southern Lebanon, since a nominal ceasefire took hold last month.
“We did not demand any concessions — the only thing we demanded was Iran’s legitimate rights,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday. “The American side still insists on its one-sided views and unreasonable demands.”
Pakistan still trying to negotiate a deal
Two regional diplomats familiar with the ongoing talks said that Pakistan was continuing its efforts to broker a compromise.
One of the diplomats said Pakistan was trying to arrange a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and paving the way for a broader dialogue on issues where the two sides remain divided.
Pakistan had hoped to help finalize the memorandum last week, but the effort did not materialize, and mediators are still working on various proposals, the diplomat said.
The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the behind-the-scenes diplomacy, added that Islamabad is receiving support from other regional countries in its peace efforts.
Iran keeps up its executions
Meanwhile, Iran executed another man it accused of spying for both the CIA and Israel’s Mossad intelligence service. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said Erfan Shakourzadeh had worked on satellite communications and relayed classified information to those intelligence services.
Iran has carried out a string of executions since nationwide protests swept the country in January. Activist groups have long accused Iran of carrying out closed-door trials during which defendants are unable to fully defend themselves. Iran’s judiciary chief has repeatedly said that Tehran would increase the speed with which it carried out hangings to fight back against its enemies at home and abroad.
Magdy reported from Cairo and Kim from Washington. Associated Press reporter Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed.
JON GAMBRELL is the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press. He has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.
SAMY MAGDY is a Middle East reporter for The Associated Press, based in Cairo. He focuses on conflict, migration and human rights abuses.
SEUNG MIN KIM covers the White House for The Associated Press. She joined the AP in 2022 and is based in Washington. Kim is also a political analyst for CNN.
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川瘋「不接受」伊朗議和方案 – Jon Gambrell/Samy Magdy
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請參考本欄上一篇。
Iran responds to US ceasefire proposal but Trump rejects it as 'unacceptable'
JON GAMBRELL/SAMY MAGDY, 05/11/26
(ASSOCIATED PRESS) Photos of life inside Iran after U.S. ceasefire proposal falters 多張照片
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran sent its response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the Iran war via Pakistani mediators on Sunday, but U.S. President Donald Trump quickly rejected it in a social media post as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” — the latest setback to efforts to resolve the standoff in the Persian Gulf that has throttled shipping and sent energy prices soaring.
Iranian state television reported that Tehran rejected the U.S. proposal as amounting to surrender, insisting instead on “war reparations by the U.S., full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and the release of seized Iranian assets.”
Washington’s latest proposal addressed a deal to end the war, reopen the strait and roll back Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s rejection of the Iranian response included no details. In an earlier post, he accused Tehran of “playing games” with the United States for nearly 50 years, adding: “They will be laughing no longer!”
Trump is giving diplomacy “every chance we possibly can before going back to hostilities,” the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told ABC earlier.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard publicly since the war began, “issued new and decisive directives for the continuation of operations and the powerful confrontation with the enemies” while meeting with the head of the joint military command, the state broadcaster reported, with no details.
Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers Munir Ahmed in Islamabad; Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel; Tong-hyung Kim in Seoul, South Korea; Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Josh Boak in Washington contributed to this report.
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川瘋能詐唬伊朗嗎？-Michael Collins等
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* Iran live updates: Tehran sends response to latest US proposal, state media says
* Day 71 of Middle East conflict — US awaits response from Iran on proposal to end war
Can Trump's tough-guy approach work with Iran?
Michael Collins/Kim Hjelmgaard/Chris Kenning, USA TODAY, 05/09/26
WASHINGTON – The bombs had been falling for just six days when President Donald Trump spelled out his demands for ending the war in Iran.
There will be no peace deal, he said, without Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
But with gas prices soaring, his popularity tanking and polls showing most Americans oppose the war, Trump has suggested a peace deal might be possible.
“It’ll be over quickly,” Trump predicted this week as Iran mulled a U.S. proposal that would halt the fighting but leave unresolved many of the most contentious issues between the two countries. Since the war with Iran began Feb. 28, Trump has said that it would be over soon and that Iran should sign a peace deal quickly or be annihilated.
Just this week, Trump said peace negotiations to end the war continue but need to be resolved or Iran will face more military action, possibly even nukes. Key elements in the talks are for Iran to agree not to develop nuclear weapons and to allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The talks are going very well but they have to understand, if it doesn’t get signed, they’re going to have a lot of pain,” Trump said of Iran. But he noted that he would not abandon the cease-fire agreement now in effect. He indicated that if he were abandoning the agreement, it would be clear because there would be "one big glow coming out of Iran."
Grief and destruction in the Middle East amid Iran War ceasefire
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which also included Israel, began on April 7-8, 2026.
Pictured here, mourners attend the funeral of people, including Hezbollah members, who were killed during the conflict with Israel before a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect, in Kfar Sir, Lebanon, April 21, 2026.
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which also included Israel, began on April 7-8, 2026.
Military experts and philosophers from the ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu to Nobel Prize-winning Colombian novelist Gabriel Garcia Márquez have historically noted that it’s much easier to start a war than to end one. Trump and his team seem to be discovering the hard truth behind that theory as they look for an exit ramp out of a conflict that has already killed thousands of people across the Middle East.
“We have gone from Trump demanding total capitulation to Trump essentially taking Iran’s word for it,” said Brett Bruen, a former diplomat who worked in the White House as director of global engagement under President Barack Obama.
The Trump administration is trying to end the war and extricate itself from a conflict that hasn't gone as planned, has sent oil prices skyrocketing and goes against American public opinion, said Dina Esfandiary, a Geneva-based Iranian national and Middle East policy expert at Bloomberg Economics, which analyzes geopolitical shifts.
"It is trying to test the waters and see what it can get away with without too much political cost within the constraints of the domestic situation in the U.S.," she said.
Trump's early remarks about the war threatened total destruction if Iran did not act quickly to bend to U.S. demands. He warned in April that “a whole civilization will die." But so far, Iran has not taken the bait, and Trump continues to talk annihilation – but in the context of getting a peace agreement signed.
But that tough talk has not brought Iran's capitulation. That “reflects the dilemma he’s now in,” said Daniel R. DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that advocates for a smaller global U.S. military footprint.
“He remains unwilling to provide the Iranians the kinds of concessions that could actually end the war and continues to believe that coercion will eventually compel Iran to sign a settlement on U.S. terms,” DePetris said.
In another twist, Trump and his top aides say the war is already over, even as bombs continue to fly across the Strait of Hormuz and as Israel continues its airstrikes in Lebanon.
The U.S. launched strikes on Iran on May 7, for example, in response to attacks on American warships, the Pentagon said. It described these as "self-defense strikes" following attacks on three American naval vessels. None of the warships were hit, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
War Powers Act flouted
Trump notified Congress on Friday, May 1, that he doesn’t need its authorization to continue operations in Iran because a two-week ceasefire reached on April 7 has been extended and hostilities have been terminated. A federal law called the War Powers Act requires the president to seek congressional authorization when a military conflict crosses the 60-day mark.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio made essentially the same argument at a White House briefing on Tuesday, May 5.
"The Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” Rubio said, using the war’s military code name. “We achieved the objectives of that operation.”
Rubio has also asserted that the War Powers Act is unconstitutional and suggested this is a position that has been shared by "every single president" since the law passed in 1973.
The truth is a little hazier: U.S. presidents have generally accepted portions of the statute in practice while disputing specific mechanisms, according to the Congressional Research Service, a research branch agency within the Library of Congress.
Still, analysts question how the war can be over when the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange fire over the Strait of Hormuz. They also point out there’s little evidence the U.S. has achieved its goals, which have shifted repeatedly during the war.
Trump suggested at the start of the military campaign that the U.S. objective was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran’s ballistic missile program has been severely damaged by the attacks, which have reduced its operational capacity by as much as 60%. But Iran still has enough nuclear material to make roughly 12 bombs if it should decide to use its remaining nuclear facilities to build these weapons, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, which analyzes American foreign policy and international relations.
Just hours into the conflict, Trump seemed to suggest the goal of the campaign was regime change. “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he said in a message directed at the Iranian people. "Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and unleash a prosperous and glorious future,” he added.
Iran's political and military leadership have been decimated by the war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike that targeted his compound in the opening salvo of the conflict. He was succeeded by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is considered more of an ideological extremist than his father. Other political and military leaders also have died in the attacks, but Iran’s ruling regime remains in charge despite the leadership changes.
In one sense, Bruen said, the regime has emerged even stronger. Before the war, “the regime seemed to be faltering, on the verge of failing,” he said. “They have now been able to strengthen their position with key groups internally. And that probably gives them another couple of decades in power."
Looking for an Iran off-ramp
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration’s focus has appeared to shift toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the global oil supply must pass on its way to world markets. In the face of Iran’s refusal to reopen the channel, the U.S. military launched an operation on May 4 to escort commercial ships through the passageway. But Trump paused the mission the next day, citing “great progress” toward negotiating a final peace deal with Iran.
Trump and his aides insist that operation should not be considered part of the war effort. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described it as “a temporary mission.”
But Bruen and others don’t buy that argument. “The closing of this strait was a direct result of our attack,” he said. “You can’t say that a war is over if the enemy is seizing waters or territory.”
Meanwhile, pressure to halt the war has mounted because of growing economic pain on both sides, neither of which has been willing to “cry uncle,” said Gregory Aftandilian, a foreign policy professor at American University in Washington.
The challenge for Trump, he said, is trying to end an unpopular war that has raised gas prices but doing so in a way that shows a tangible gain.
“He's looking for an off-ramp, to be sure,” Aftandilian said, but one in which a deal with Iran brings new concessions that allow him to “tell the American people it was worth it.”
A deal to lift the U.S.-imposed naval blockade in Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz would be the easy part, Aftandilian said. The much stickier problem is reaching a nuclear deal, which has been at the center of administration’s rationale for the war. Deciding to negotiate that later could be a political risk for Trump, he said.
“I'm not sure that would be acceptable to Trump because how does he sell that to the American people?” he said. “Critics of him would jump on that and say, ‘Well, what did you really accomplish here? The strait was open before the war, and now we're in endless negotiations with Iran over nuclear issues. So what was the whole point of the war?’”
Complicating matters is a nuclear agreement that the Obama administration, working with a handful of other nations, negotiated with Iran in 2015. Under the deal, Iran agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium or the plutonium for weapons. Trump, however, mocked the agreement as a bad deal and pulled out of it during his first term despite a consensus among nuclear-watchdog experts, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, that it was working.
Trump’s withdrawal from that pact means “he can't accept the Obama parameters, even though probably whatever deal is going to be made is going to be probably pretty close to that,” Aftandilian said.
Even as it reviews the Trump administration’s proposal to end the war, Iran is expecting a new U.S. attack and believes it could come before the American president leaves for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, said Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a Tehran-based, Iranian-American academic and political analyst. Marandi served as an adviser to Iran’s negotiating team during the 2015 nuclear talks and still has close ties to the Iranian government.
Iran is finding it difficult to understand the Trump administration’s shifting war rhetoric, Marandi said in a message on WhatsApp.
"Deciphering Trump is not possible," he said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Trump's tough guy approach work with Iran?
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Trump says ceasefire still on. US launches 'self-defense strikes' on Iran
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