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中東風雲錄--開欄文：埃及的加薩重建方案 -- Al Jazeera
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下文為本欄開欄文。
埃及的加薩重建方案 -- Al Jazeera
What is Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza?
Arab League endorses Egyptian proposal that provides alternative to US President Trump’s plan to take over Gaza.
Al Jazeera Staff, 03/04/25
Arab states have adopted Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan, providing a potential path forward after Israel’s devastating war on the Palestinian enclave.
Egypt unveiled its plan on Tuesday while hosting an Arab League Summit in its capital Cairo.
The plan offers an alternative to United States President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the Gaza Strip be depopulated to “develop” the enclave, under US control, in what critics have called ethnic cleansing. Under the Egyptian plan, Gaza’s Palestinian population would not be forced to leave the territory.
Trump had insisted that Egypt and Jordan take Palestinians forced out of Gaza by his plan, but that was quickly rejected, and the US has signalled that it is open to hearing what an Arab plan for Gaza’s post-war reconstruction would be.
Speaking at the start of the summit, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said that Trump would be able to achieve peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Here’s everything you need to know about the plan, based on Al Jazeera’s own reporting, as well as drafts of the plan reported on by the Reuters news agency and the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram.
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What does the Egyptian plan call for?
The plan consists of three major stages: Interim measures, reconstruction and governance.
The first stage would last about six months, while the next two phases would take place over a combined four to five years.
The aim is to reconstruct Gaza – which Israel has almost completely destroyed – maintain peace and security and reassert the governance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the territory, 17 years after it was kicked out following fighting between Fatah, which dominates the PA, and Hamas.
How does the plan aim to rebuild Gaza?
A six-month interim period would require a committee of Palestinian technocrats – operating under the management of the PA – to clear the rubble from Salah al-Din Street, which is the main north-south highway in the Gaza Strip.
Once the roads are clear, 200,000 temporary housing units would be built to accommodate 1.2 million people and about 60,000 damaged buildings restored.
According to the blueprint, longer-term reconstruction requires an additional four to five years after the interim measures are completed. Over that span, the plan aims to build at least 400,000 permanent homes, as well as rebuilding Gaza’s seaport and international airport.
Gradually, basic provisions such as water, a waste system, telecommunication services and electricity would also be restored.
The plan further calls for the establishment of a Steering and Management Council, which would be a financial fund supporting the interim governing body in Gaza.
In addition, conferences will be held for international donors to provide the necessary funding for reconstruction and long-term development in the Strip.
Who would be in charge of Gaza?
The plan calls for a group of “independent Palestinian technocrats” to manage affairs in Gaza, in effect replacing Hamas.
The technocratic government would be responsible for overseeing humanitarian aid and would pave the way for the PA to administer Gaza, according to el-Sisi.
Speaking at Tuesday’s summit, PA President Mahmoud Abbas said that an election could take place next year if circumstances allowed.
On the security front, Egypt and Jordan have both pledged to train Palestinian police officers and deploy them to Gaza. The two countries have also called on the United Nations Security Council to consider authorising a peacekeeping mission to oversee governance in Gaza until reconstruction is complete.
How much is this going to cost?
Egypt is calling for $53 bn to fund the reconstruction of Gaza, with the money distributed over three phases.
In the first six-month phase it would cost $3bn to clear rubble from Salah al-Din Street, construct temporary housing and restore partially damaged homes.
The second phase would take two years and cost $20bn. The work of rubble removal would continue in this phase, as well as the establishment of utility networks and the building of more housing units.
Phase three would cost $30bn and take two and a half years. It would include completing housing for Gaza’s whole population, establishing the first phase of an industrial zone, building fishing and commercial ports, and building an airport, among other services.
According to the plan, the money will be sourced from a variety of international sources including the UN and international financial organisations as well as foreign and private sector investments.
Is the plan going to work?
There are still a number of variables that could complicate the plan. Perhaps most importantly, it is unclear whether Hamas, Israel or the US will agree to it.
Hamas welcomed the reconstruction plan, and has previously agreed to a technocratic government. But it is less clear if it will accept the return of the PA, which itself would face the perception from its critics that it has returned to Gaza on the back of Israel’s tanks.
Hamas may be willing to discuss its removal from governance, but is adamantly against its disarmament – something the Egyptian plan adopted by the Arab League did not discuss.
Israel has made it clear that this is a red line, and that Hamas will not be allowed to keep its weapons. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also said that he will not allow the PA to return to Gaza.
There is also the question of whether Trump will abandon his idea of a US-controlled “Middle East Riviera” for the Egyptian plan. It is difficult to predict what Trump’s position will be, particularly if Israel signals its opposition to the Egyptian plan.
What has the response been so far?
In response to Egypt’s plan, Israel said that Arab states needed to “break free from past constraints and collaborate to create a future of stability and security in the region”.
Instead, Israel continues to back Trump’s Gaza displacement plan – which echoes a longstanding call from the Israeli far-right to depopulate Gaza.
Egypt called Israel’s response “unacceptable”, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty describing the Netanyahu government’s position as “stubborn and extremist”.
Abdelatty said it would be impossible to see peace in the region without an independent Palestinian state. “No single state should be allowed to impose its will on the international community,” he added.
The White House continues to stand by Trump’s plan for Gaza, but said it would welcome collaboration with regional partners – except Hamas.
“While the President stands by his bold vision for a post-war Gaza, he welcomes input from our Arab partners in the region. It’s clear his proposals have driven the region to come to the table rather than allow this issue to devolve into further crisis,” White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said.
“President Trump has been clear that Hamas cannot continue to govern Gaza,” he added.
相關閱讀：
Arab leaders endorse Egypt’s Gaza reconstruction plan
European leaders back 'realistic' Arab plan for Gaza
For Israel, ceasefire is a continuation of war by other means
The Egyptian Gaza plan: A deadly trap for Israel and the US
The Egyptian plan for postwar Gaza is a good starting point—but it needs changes
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川瘋不得不求和之鷹派吵翻天 - Eli Lake
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US military says it carried out 'self-defense' strikes in Iran, including on missile launch sites (此之謂「談談打打」也。)
下文對川普目前的困境有詳細報導；但本欄上一篇的「編者前言」已涵蓋其所有重點。
The Real Reason Trump Needs a Deal with Iran
Critics say the president’s peace offering hands Iran victory. But they don’t acknowledge the biggest risk of restarting the war.
Eli Lake, 05/25/26
Eli Lake is a veteran journalist of foreign affairs and national security. He is the host of Breaking History.
President Donald Trump is on the precipice of surrender in his second Iran war, according to some of his most devoted supporters. At issue is a proposed 60-day ceasefire that in theory would open the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade as the two sides work on a broader nuclear deal. The president himself is giving mixed signals. On Saturday, he said he was very close to an agreement. On Sunday, he said he had told his team “not to rush into a deal” and posted an AI-generated image of a precision-guided munition emblazoned with “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Leaks in the press suggest that the U.S.-Iran agreement would compel Trump to give Iran an economic lifeline in exchange for opening the strait. Republicans have panned the early reported details of the deal. Senator Ted Cruz posted on X that the war would be a “disastrous mistake” if it ended with “an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant ‘death to America’—now receiving billions of dollars, being able to enrich uranium & develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz.”
Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, said early reports of the agreement “seem straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook,” referencing three senior Obama administration officials who helped craft the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. This prompted White House director of communications Stephen Cheung to implore Pompeo to “shut his stupid mouth and leave the real work to the professionals.”
But Trump is hearing it from all parts of his coalition. Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, on Sunday warned the president via X that the Iranian regime is lying, and that the $25 billion that the U.S. is reportedly offering in sanctions relief and unfrozen assets would be paying “tribute” to a terrorist regime. Senator Roger Wicker, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, posted Saturday on X: “The rumored 60-day ceasefire—with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith—would be a disaster.” Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham has warned throughout the weekend that ending the war now would give Iran a victory they did not earn on the battlefield.
For the president’s critics and supporters alike, it looks like Trump has lost his nerve. He is coming under a lot of pressure from within his own administration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, according to two administration officials, has quietly warned that continuing the war without opening the strait risks setting off a global financial meltdown. His approval rating has dipped to 37 percent in recent polls, the lowest of his second presidency. And his top political advisers and GOP members of Congress have warned that prolonging the Iran war would worsen the already gloomy prospects for Republicans in the midterm elections.
But there are other factors pushing the president to cut a deal. The military is running out of precision munitions and missile interceptors. This has left the U.S. and its allies vulnerable to Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles. “We have degraded Iran’s missile stocks, but not enough where they can’t threaten the Gulf,” one military official told me.
Iran and its proxies have done more than threaten. Last week, an Iranian-designed one-way attack drone hit the outer edge of the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. It caused a fire but did not affect the operations of the plant. That strike demonstrated Iran’s ability to hit sensitive infrastructure despite the early success of Operation Epic Fury.
The challenges in restarting the war are not just defensive. The U.S. is also facing a major shortfall of standoff weapons, like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which can target military facilities along Iran’s coastline well out of range of the regime’s anti-missile capabilities. While the U.S. still has plenty of Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), these weapons are shorter range and must be fired from low-flying aircraft. Iran’s air defense systems are useless against America’s and Israel’s advanced weapons. But as Iran proved in April, it can still down aircraft that fly lower to the ground.
Back then, Iran fired clusters of surface-to-air missiles against U.S. aircraft using infrared, as opposed to radar, targeting. If Trump restarted the war to focus on Iran’s force posture along the Strait of Hormuz, then he would have to rely on JDAMs fired by lower-flying aircraft. It’s quite possible that the U.S. would not be as lucky as it was in April, when it rescued downed pilots before the Iranians could take them hostage.
Finally, there is the problem of Iran’s coastal facilities. The drones, short-range missiles, and speedboats Iran uses to harass and threaten international shipping are all stored in underground bunkers. To get to those targets, the U.S. would need to use the penetrator bombs like the ones dropped on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June during Operation Midnight Hammer. The U.S. still has around a thousand of these munitions, according to a military source. But many of them are needed to deter North Korea and China.
Admiral Bradley Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, hinted at the need for more of these “bunker buster” bombs in his testimony before the House Armed Services Committee last week. When asked what additional support he needs, Cooper said, “We need to invest more in hard and deeply buried targets. Everybody is going underground.”
All of this gets at a problem that has been decades in the making. The Pentagon has favored complex weapon systems that are expensive and difficult to produce quickly. Former defense secretary Bob Gates made this point to The New York Times in an interview last week. “Everybody seems to rhetorically recognize the problems with defense industrial capacity, whether it’s ship building or ammunition or anything else,” he said, “but how fast are either existing factories being expanded or new factories being built?”
The Iran war has exposed America’s neglected defense industrial base. Trump may have hoped that the war’s initial decapitation of Iran’s leadership on February 28 would have collapsed the regime entirely. But that is not what happened. Instead, Iran reestablished its capability to command and control both its proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon as well as its own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. As a result, a quick war soon dragged out into a longer one as the missiles and interceptors necessary to wage that war effectively depleted.
All of that said, it would be a mistake to say the war was entirely useless. As Cooper testified earlier this month, Iran’s own industrial base has been severely damaged. And this says nothing of the devastation wrought upon Iran’s nuclear program during Operation Midnight Hammer last summer and in the current war. A year ago, Iran was very close to enriching enough uranium for a viable nuclear warhead. Today, that capacity is rubble and ash.
But that doesn’t get the president off the hook. If this is how the war ends, then the remnants of Iran’s regime can still fire drones and missiles at its neighbors and hold the global economy hostage in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump began the war stating that his objective was to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” The president deserves great credit for eliminating the threat of Iran’s nuclear program. In doing so, he has unleashed a wounded beast that still imminently threatens America and its allies.
Eli Lake is the host of Breaking History, a new history podcast from The Free Press. A veteran journalist with expertise in foreign affairs and national security, Eli has reported for Bloomberg, The Daily Beast, and Newsweek. With Breaking History, he brings his sharp analysis and storytelling skills to uncover the connections between today’s events and pivotal moments in the past.
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美、以、伊「和平方案」細節–Samy Magdy/Melanie Lidman
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* Rubio calls GOP criticisms of Iran-Trump emerging deal ‘absurd’
* Iran's top negotiator says Tehran will not compromise in talks with US
雙方大概各自在老虎背上都騎不住了；還是互給一個台階下吧。「說謊」或「欺騙」本來就是一場兩個人才能玩的遊戲；川痞碰上伊朗軍頭勉強算得上「棋逢對手」。暫時平息一下眾怒，免得腹背受敵；也趁機補充一下快要見底的軍火庫。
這場戰爭只是從「打打談談」進入「談談打打」的階段。川瘋不下台或不暴斃，這場角力只能落個沒完沒了的戲碼。
Details emerge of a potential Iran deal as Trump says not to rush
SAMY MAGDY/ MELANIE LIDMAN, 05/24/26
CAIRO (AP) — The United States is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, regional officials told The Associated Press on Sunday. They said details and timelines would be worked out later.
Iran has not publicly committed to giving up its uranium — a key demand of U.S. President Donald Trump — and the sides previously seemed close to a deal in recent weeks. Trump on Saturday said a deal had been “largely negotiated,” after calls with Israel and other regional allies.
“The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” Trump said on social media Sunday. He said the U.S. relationship with Iran is becoming “much more professional and productive.”
The strait's reopening would begin to ease a worldwide energy crisis sparked by the surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment of Iran on Feb. 28, which led Tehran to effectively close the crucial waterway. Prices have spiked for oil, gas and several downstream products, jolting the world economy. Experts say it would take several weeks or even months for shipping and prices to recover to prewar levels.
The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports for over a month, and Trump on Sunday said the blockade “will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”
The emerging deal would include Iran giving up uranium
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on a visit to India, said that “significant progress, although not final progress, has been made” in negotiations, and the world would no longer need to fear Iran getting a nuclear weapon, without elaborating.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told state TV they were ready “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon.” Iran’s embassy in India responded to Rubio on social media, saying Tehran has an “inalienable” right to nuclear technology.
Iran has always insisted its program is peaceful while enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels.
Under the potential deal, Tehran would agree to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to the two regional officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations.
One official, with direct knowledge of the negotiations, said how Iran would give up the uranium would be subject to further talks during a 60-day period. Some would likely be diluted, while the rest would be transferred to a third country, the official said. Russia has offered to take it.
Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Trump has sought greater concessions from Iran than those required under a 2015 Obama-era agreement that the U.S. later withdrew from under Trump.
On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told the state-run news agency that there are “narrowing differences” between the Iranian and U.S. positions, but that Iran is cautious after being attacked twice in the past year during nuclear negotiations.
Pakistani army chief Asim Munir, a key mediator, left Tehran late Saturday after more talks with Iranian officials.
The strait would reopen and Iran would be able to sell oil
Under the emerging agreement, the Strait of Hormuz would gradually reopen in parallel with the U.S. ending its blockade, the officials said.
The U.S. would allow Iran to sell its oil through sanctions waivers, said the second official, who has been briefed on the negotiations. Sanctions relief and the release of Iran’s frozen funds would be negotiated during the 60-day time frame, the official said.
Both officials said the draft deal includes an end to the war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon.
Twelve weeks have passed since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, killing its supreme leader and other top officials. A ceasefire with Iran has held since April 7, though the sides have exchanged fire on occasion.
Several countries, including the European Union and the United Kingdom, welcomed progress on a possible deal with Iran.
Israel remains concerned over Hezbollah
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a social media post Sunday, said “President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger,” and that Trump had reaffirmed Israel's right to defend itself “on every front, including Lebanon.”
Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party and part of his national security cabinet, told Israel's Army Radio that Israel is taking a “wait-and-see” approach.
Israeli officials are concerned that Hezbollah remains a serious threat to Israel and that Lebanon is ill-equipped to disarm it.
A fragile, U.S.-brokered ceasefire took effect in Lebanon on April 17, but fighting has continued, mainly in the south. Hezbollah has launched daily drone and rocket attacks on Israeli forces and northern Israel, and Israel has struck targets across Lebanon while its troops remain in large swaths of the south.
More than 3,000 people have been killed in the latest round of fighting, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Additionally, 22 Israeli soldiers and a defense contractor have been killed in or near southern Lebanon, and two civilians have been killed in northern Israel, according to Netanyahu’s office.
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沙烏地阿拉伯暗地反擊伊朗-- Timour Azhari/Parisa Hafezi
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中東大戲連番上線。雖說不希望差槍走火，禍及全球；但如果能來個一翻兩瞪眼，徹底除掉伊朗或以色列兩個亂源之一；倒也未必不是大快人心的事。
Exclusive: Saudi Arabia launched covert attacks on Iran as regional war widened, sources say
Timour Azhari/Parisa Hafezi, 05/13/26
Summary
* Attacks were followed by drop in Iranian strikes on the kingdom, Reuters tally shows
* Kingdom warned Iran of further retaliation, but diplomatic channels were maintained
* Saudi-Iran engagement tested by renewed attacks from Iraq
RIYADH/DUBAI, May 12 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter and two Iranian officials said.
The Saudi attacks, not previously reported, mark the first time that the kingdom is known to have directly carried out military action on Iranian soil and show it is becoming much bolder in defending itself against its main regional rival.
The attacks, launched by the Saudi Air Force, were assessed to have been carried out in late March, the two Western officials said. One said only that they were "tit-for-tat strikes in retaliation for when Saudi (Arabia) was hit."
Reuters was unable to confirm what the specific targets were.
In response to a request for comment, a senior Saudi foreign ministry official did not address directly whether strikes had been carried out.
The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Saudi Arabia, which has a deep military relationship with the United States, has traditionally relied on U.S. military for protection, but the 10-week war has left the kingdom vulnerable to attacks that have pierced the U.S. military umbrella.
GULF ARAB STATES BEGAN HITTING BACK
The Saudi strikes underscore the widening of the conflict — and the extent to which a war that began when the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28 has drawn in the broader Middle East in ways that have not been publicly acknowledged.
Since the U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran has hit all six Gulf Cooperation Council states with missiles and drones, attacking not only U.S. military bases but civilian sites, airports and oil infrastructure, and closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade.
The United Arab Emirates also carried out military strikes on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. Together, the Saudi and Emirati actions reveal a conflict whose true shape has remained largely hidden — one in which Gulf monarchies battered by Iranian attacks began hitting back.
But their approach has not been identical. The UAE has taken a more hawkish stance, seeking to extract a cost from Iran and engaging only rarely in public diplomacy with Tehran.
Saudi Arabia has meanwhile sought to prevent the conflict from escalating and has stayed in regular contact with Iran, including via Tehran's ambassador in Riyadh. He did not respond to a request for comment.
The senior Saudi foreign ministry official did not directly address whether a de-escalation agreement had been struck with Iran, but said: "We reaffirm Saudi Arabia's consistent position advocating de-escalation, self-restraint and the reduction of tensions in pursuit of the stability, security and prosperity of the region and its people."
STRIKES, THEN DE-ESCALATION
The Iranian and Western officials said Saudi Arabia made Iran aware of the strikes and this was followed by intensive diplomatic engagement and Saudi threats to retaliate further, which led to an understanding between the two countries to de-escalate.
Ali Vaez, the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, said retaliatory Saudi strikes on Iran, followed by an understanding to de-escalate, would "show pragmatic recognition on both sides that uncontrolled escalation carries unacceptable costs."
Such a sequence of events would show "not trust, but a shared interest in imposing limits on confrontation before it spiraled into a wider regional conflict."
The informal de-escalation took effect in the week before Washington and Tehran agreed to a ceasefire in their broader conflict on April 7. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
One of the Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran and Riyadh had agreed to de-escalate, saying the move aimed to "cease hostilities, safeguard mutual interests, and prevent the escalation of tensions."
Long at odds, Iran and Saudi Arabia — the two leading Shi'ite and Sunni Muslim powers in the Middle East — have backed opposing groups in conflicts across the region.
A China-brokered détente in 2023 saw them resume ties, including a ceasefire between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia that has since held.
With the Red Sea remaining open to shipping, Saudi Arabia has been able to continue exporting oil throughout the conflict, unlike most Gulf states, and so has managed to remain relatively insulated.
KINGDOM AVOIDED 'FURNACE OF DESTRUCTION', SAYS PRINCE
In an op-ed in Saudi-owned Arab News over the weekend, former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal captured the kingdom's calculus, writing that "when Iran and others tried to drag the kingdom into the furnace of destruction, our leadership chose to endure the pains caused by a neighbor in order to protect the lives and property of its citizens."
Saudi Arabia's strikes followed weeks of mounting tension.
At a press conference in Riyadh on March 19, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the kingdom "reserved the right to take military actions if deemed necessary."
Three days later, Saudi Arabia declared Iran's military attaché and four embassy staff members personae non gratae.
IRAN CURTAILED DIRECT HITS ON KINGDOM, SOURCES SAY
By the end of March, diplomatic contacts and the threat by Saudi Arabia to take a more hawkish approach akin to the UAE and retaliate further led to an understanding to de-escalate, the Western sources said.
From more than 105 drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia in the week of March 25-31, the number fell to just over 25 between April 1-6, according to a Reuters tally of Saudi defence ministry statements.
Projectiles fired at Saudi Arabia in the days leading up to the wider ceasefire were assessed by Western sources to have originated in Iraq rather than Iran itself, indicating Tehran had curtailed direct strikes while allied groups continued to operate.
Saudi Arabia summoned Iraq's ambassador on April 12 to protest against attacks from Iraqi soil.
The Saudi-Iranian communication continued even as strains emerged at the start of the broader ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., when the Saudi defence ministry reported 31 drones and 16 missiles fired at the kingdom on April 7-8.
The spike prompted Riyadh to consider retaliation against Iran and Iraq, while Pakistan deployed fighter jets to reassure the kingdom and urged restraint as diplomacy gathered pace.
Reporting by Timour Azhari in Riyadh and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Editing by William Maclean
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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川普：停火協議「命懸一線」 - Jon Gambrell等
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這些都是協商過程中雙方必玩的：「誰先慫」和「漫天要價」等老戲碼；不但為了討價還價，也為了維持「形象」。我賭：川痞先「慫」！國內、國際壓力之外，還有「赤腳的不怕跟穿鞋的拚」這個鐵律。
Trump says Iran ceasefire is on ‘life support’ and proposes gas tax pause as strait stays closed
JON GAMBRELL, SAMY MAGDY/SEUNG MIN KIM, 05/12/26
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said the Iran ceasefire is on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, which officials said included some nuclear concessions. Trump also proposed suspending the federal gas tax to help with higher fuel prices caused by the war.
President Donald Trump is heading back to China, but this time, the Iran war raises the stakes for both sides. China is the bigger purchaser of Iranian oil. Trump had hoped China would do more to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (AP Video: Nathan Ellgren) 視頻
The stalled diplomacy and recent exchanges of fire could tip the Middle East back into open warfare and prolong the worldwide energy crisis sparked by the conflict. Iran still has a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments, and America is blockading Iranian ports.
Asked at the White House if the ceasefire was still in effect, Trump said it’s on “life support.”
“I would call it the weakest right now after reading that piece of garbage they sent us,” Trump added. “I didn’t even finish reading it.”
AP AUDIO: US standoff with Iran deepens and strait remains closed after Trump rejects latest proposal 音頻
President Trump is reacting to Iran’s response to the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. AP correspondent Mike Hempen reports.
Trump also said he supported a suspension of the federal tax on gasoline — just over 18 cents per gallon and 24 cents for diesel. Congress, which is controlled by Republicans, would have to approve. The tax brings in more than $23 billion each year.
His pledge came after fuel prices surged past $4.50 a gallon last week. Trump predicted that the price of oil and gas would drop “like a rock” as soon as hostilities are over.
The two sides remain far apart
Trump has demanded a major rollback of Iran’s nuclear activities, while Iran is pushing for a more limited agreement that would reopen the strait and lift the blockade ahead of further negotiations.
On Monday, Trump claimed that Iran had said it would allow the U.S. to come in and help extract its highly enriched uranium but went back on that in its latest ceasefire proposal. “They changed their mind because they didn’t put it in the paper,” he said.
Iran has not publicly agreed to give up its uranium, saying it has a right to enrich and that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.
Two regional officials told The Associated Press that Iran has offered to dilute part of its highly enriched uranium and transport the rest to a third country. Russia has previously offered to take it. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive diplomacy.
Trump is expected to use a trip this week to China to urge President Xi Jinping to pressure Iran. Beijing is the biggest buyer of Iran’s sanctioned crude oil, giving it leverage.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched the war with Trump on Feb. 28, has also demanded that all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium be removed from the country.
He told CBS’ “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired Sunday that if that can’t be accomplished with negotiations, Israel and the U.S. agree “we can reengage them militarily.”
Iran’s proposal included far-reaching demands
Iran’s proposal asked that the U.S. recognize its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, formalizing its control over the international waterway. Iran has effectively closed the strait since the start of the war, allowing only a small number of ships to pass and charging tolls.
But experts say such an arrangement would likely violate international law that provides for freedom of navigation. That proposal is also likely to be widely rejected by the international community. The strait was open to international traffic before the war.
Iran is also demanding war reparations from the U.S., the lifting of international sanctions, the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad and an end to the war between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah, according to Iranian state TV.
Israel and Hezbollah have continued to exchange blows, mainly in southern Lebanon, since a nominal ceasefire took hold last month.
“We did not demand any concessions — the only thing we demanded was Iran’s legitimate rights,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday. “The American side still insists on its one-sided views and unreasonable demands.”
Pakistan still trying to negotiate a deal
Two regional diplomats familiar with the ongoing talks said that Pakistan was continuing its efforts to broker a compromise.
One of the diplomats said Pakistan was trying to arrange a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and paving the way for a broader dialogue on issues where the two sides remain divided.
Pakistan had hoped to help finalize the memorandum last week, but the effort did not materialize, and mediators are still working on various proposals, the diplomat said.
The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the behind-the-scenes diplomacy, added that Islamabad is receiving support from other regional countries in its peace efforts.
Iran keeps up its executions
Meanwhile, Iran executed another man it accused of spying for both the CIA and Israel’s Mossad intelligence service. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said Erfan Shakourzadeh had worked on satellite communications and relayed classified information to those intelligence services.
Iran has carried out a string of executions since nationwide protests swept the country in January. Activist groups have long accused Iran of carrying out closed-door trials during which defendants are unable to fully defend themselves. Iran’s judiciary chief has repeatedly said that Tehran would increase the speed with which it carried out hangings to fight back against its enemies at home and abroad.
Magdy reported from Cairo and Kim from Washington. Associated Press reporter Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed.
JON GAMBRELL is the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press. He has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the world since joining the AP in 2006.
SAMY MAGDY is a Middle East reporter for The Associated Press, based in Cairo. He focuses on conflict, migration and human rights abuses.
SEUNG MIN KIM covers the White House for The Associated Press. She joined the AP in 2022 and is based in Washington. Kim is also a political analyst for CNN.
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Iran responds to US ceasefire proposal but Trump rejects it as 'unacceptable'
JON GAMBRELL/SAMY MAGDY, 05/11/26
(ASSOCIATED PRESS) Photos of life inside Iran after U.S. ceasefire proposal falters 多張照片
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran sent its response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the Iran war via Pakistani mediators on Sunday, but U.S. President Donald Trump quickly rejected it in a social media post as “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” — the latest setback to efforts to resolve the standoff in the Persian Gulf that has throttled shipping and sent energy prices soaring.
Iranian state television reported that Tehran rejected the U.S. proposal as amounting to surrender, insisting instead on “war reparations by the U.S., full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to sanctions, and the release of seized Iranian assets.”
Washington’s latest proposal addressed a deal to end the war, reopen the strait and roll back Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s rejection of the Iranian response included no details. In an earlier post, he accused Tehran of “playing games” with the United States for nearly 50 years, adding: “They will be laughing no longer!”
Trump is giving diplomacy “every chance we possibly can before going back to hostilities,” the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, told ABC earlier.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard publicly since the war began, “issued new and decisive directives for the continuation of operations and the powerful confrontation with the enemies” while meeting with the head of the joint military command, the state broadcaster reported, with no details.
Magdy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers Munir Ahmed in Islamabad; Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel; Tong-hyung Kim in Seoul, South Korea; Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Josh Boak in Washington contributed to this report.
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川瘋能詐唬伊朗嗎？-Michael Collins等
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* Iran live updates: Tehran sends response to latest US proposal, state media says
* Day 71 of Middle East conflict — US awaits response from Iran on proposal to end war
Can Trump's tough-guy approach work with Iran?
Michael Collins/Kim Hjelmgaard/Chris Kenning, USA TODAY, 05/09/26
WASHINGTON – The bombs had been falling for just six days when President Donald Trump spelled out his demands for ending the war in Iran.
There will be no peace deal, he said, without Iran’s “unconditional surrender.”
But with gas prices soaring, his popularity tanking and polls showing most Americans oppose the war, Trump has suggested a peace deal might be possible.
“It’ll be over quickly,” Trump predicted this week as Iran mulled a U.S. proposal that would halt the fighting but leave unresolved many of the most contentious issues between the two countries. Since the war with Iran began Feb. 28, Trump has said that it would be over soon and that Iran should sign a peace deal quickly or be annihilated.
Just this week, Trump said peace negotiations to end the war continue but need to be resolved or Iran will face more military action, possibly even nukes. Key elements in the talks are for Iran to agree not to develop nuclear weapons and to allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The talks are going very well but they have to understand, if it doesn’t get signed, they’re going to have a lot of pain,” Trump said of Iran. But he noted that he would not abandon the cease-fire agreement now in effect. He indicated that if he were abandoning the agreement, it would be clear because there would be "one big glow coming out of Iran."
Grief and destruction in the Middle East amid Iran War ceasefire
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which also included Israel, began on April 7-8, 2026.
Pictured here, mourners attend the funeral of people, including Hezbollah members, who were killed during the conflict with Israel before a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect, in Kfar Sir, Lebanon, April 21, 2026.
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which also included Israel, began on April 7-8, 2026.
Military experts and philosophers from the ancient Chinese general Sun Tzu to Nobel Prize-winning Colombian novelist Gabriel Garcia Márquez have historically noted that it’s much easier to start a war than to end one. Trump and his team seem to be discovering the hard truth behind that theory as they look for an exit ramp out of a conflict that has already killed thousands of people across the Middle East.
“We have gone from Trump demanding total capitulation to Trump essentially taking Iran’s word for it,” said Brett Bruen, a former diplomat who worked in the White House as director of global engagement under President Barack Obama.
The Trump administration is trying to end the war and extricate itself from a conflict that hasn't gone as planned, has sent oil prices skyrocketing and goes against American public opinion, said Dina Esfandiary, a Geneva-based Iranian national and Middle East policy expert at Bloomberg Economics, which analyzes geopolitical shifts.
"It is trying to test the waters and see what it can get away with without too much political cost within the constraints of the domestic situation in the U.S.," she said.
Trump's early remarks about the war threatened total destruction if Iran did not act quickly to bend to U.S. demands. He warned in April that “a whole civilization will die." But so far, Iran has not taken the bait, and Trump continues to talk annihilation – but in the context of getting a peace agreement signed.
But that tough talk has not brought Iran's capitulation. That “reflects the dilemma he’s now in,” said Daniel R. DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that advocates for a smaller global U.S. military footprint.
“He remains unwilling to provide the Iranians the kinds of concessions that could actually end the war and continues to believe that coercion will eventually compel Iran to sign a settlement on U.S. terms,” DePetris said.
In another twist, Trump and his top aides say the war is already over, even as bombs continue to fly across the Strait of Hormuz and as Israel continues its airstrikes in Lebanon.
The U.S. launched strikes on Iran on May 7, for example, in response to attacks on American warships, the Pentagon said. It described these as "self-defense strikes" following attacks on three American naval vessels. None of the warships were hit, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
War Powers Act flouted
Trump notified Congress on Friday, May 1, that he doesn’t need its authorization to continue operations in Iran because a two-week ceasefire reached on April 7 has been extended and hostilities have been terminated. A federal law called the War Powers Act requires the president to seek congressional authorization when a military conflict crosses the 60-day mark.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio made essentially the same argument at a White House briefing on Tuesday, May 5.
"The Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” Rubio said, using the war’s military code name. “We achieved the objectives of that operation.”
Rubio has also asserted that the War Powers Act is unconstitutional and suggested this is a position that has been shared by "every single president" since the law passed in 1973.
The truth is a little hazier: U.S. presidents have generally accepted portions of the statute in practice while disputing specific mechanisms, according to the Congressional Research Service, a research branch agency within the Library of Congress.
Still, analysts question how the war can be over when the U.S. and Iran continue to exchange fire over the Strait of Hormuz. They also point out there’s little evidence the U.S. has achieved its goals, which have shifted repeatedly during the war.
Trump suggested at the start of the military campaign that the U.S. objective was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran’s ballistic missile program has been severely damaged by the attacks, which have reduced its operational capacity by as much as 60%. But Iran still has enough nuclear material to make roughly 12 bombs if it should decide to use its remaining nuclear facilities to build these weapons, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, which analyzes American foreign policy and international relations.
Just hours into the conflict, Trump seemed to suggest the goal of the campaign was regime change. “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he said in a message directed at the Iranian people. "Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and unleash a prosperous and glorious future,” he added.
Iran's political and military leadership have been decimated by the war. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike that targeted his compound in the opening salvo of the conflict. He was succeeded by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is considered more of an ideological extremist than his father. Other political and military leaders also have died in the attacks, but Iran’s ruling regime remains in charge despite the leadership changes.
In one sense, Bruen said, the regime has emerged even stronger. Before the war, “the regime seemed to be faltering, on the verge of failing,” he said. “They have now been able to strengthen their position with key groups internally. And that probably gives them another couple of decades in power."
Looking for an Iran off-ramp
Over the past few weeks, the Trump administration’s focus has appeared to shift toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the global oil supply must pass on its way to world markets. In the face of Iran’s refusal to reopen the channel, the U.S. military launched an operation on May 4 to escort commercial ships through the passageway. But Trump paused the mission the next day, citing “great progress” toward negotiating a final peace deal with Iran.
Trump and his aides insist that operation should not be considered part of the war effort. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described it as “a temporary mission.”
But Bruen and others don’t buy that argument. “The closing of this strait was a direct result of our attack,” he said. “You can’t say that a war is over if the enemy is seizing waters or territory.”
Meanwhile, pressure to halt the war has mounted because of growing economic pain on both sides, neither of which has been willing to “cry uncle,” said Gregory Aftandilian, a foreign policy professor at American University in Washington.
The challenge for Trump, he said, is trying to end an unpopular war that has raised gas prices but doing so in a way that shows a tangible gain.
“He's looking for an off-ramp, to be sure,” Aftandilian said, but one in which a deal with Iran brings new concessions that allow him to “tell the American people it was worth it.”
A deal to lift the U.S.-imposed naval blockade in Iran and open the Strait of Hormuz would be the easy part, Aftandilian said. The much stickier problem is reaching a nuclear deal, which has been at the center of administration’s rationale for the war. Deciding to negotiate that later could be a political risk for Trump, he said.
“I'm not sure that would be acceptable to Trump because how does he sell that to the American people?” he said. “Critics of him would jump on that and say, ‘Well, what did you really accomplish here? The strait was open before the war, and now we're in endless negotiations with Iran over nuclear issues. So what was the whole point of the war?’”
Complicating matters is a nuclear agreement that the Obama administration, working with a handful of other nations, negotiated with Iran in 2015. Under the deal, Iran agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium or the plutonium for weapons. Trump, however, mocked the agreement as a bad deal and pulled out of it during his first term despite a consensus among nuclear-watchdog experts, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, that it was working.
Trump’s withdrawal from that pact means “he can't accept the Obama parameters, even though probably whatever deal is going to be made is going to be probably pretty close to that,” Aftandilian said.
Even as it reviews the Trump administration’s proposal to end the war, Iran is expecting a new U.S. attack and believes it could come before the American president leaves for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, said Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a Tehran-based, Iranian-American academic and political analyst. Marandi served as an adviser to Iran’s negotiating team during the 2015 nuclear talks and still has close ties to the Iranian government.
Iran is finding it difficult to understand the Trump administration’s shifting war rhetoric, Marandi said in a message on WhatsApp.
"Deciphering Trump is not possible," he said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Trump's tough guy approach work with Iran?
相關報導
Trump says ceasefire still on. US launches 'self-defense strikes' on Iran
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川瘋一意孤行搞得眾叛親離 -- Mosheh Gains
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US and Iran exchange fire, but Trump says ceasefire still in effect
其他國家領袖終於開始了解；跟著川瘋胡攪蠻纏要付出代價！
Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies
Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, sources say.
Mosheh Gains, 05/07/26
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
Other close Gulf allies were also caught off guard; the president spoke with leaders in Qatar after the effort had already begun.
A Saudi source told NBC News that Trump and the crown prince “have been in touch regularly.” Saudi officials were also in touch with Trump, Vice President JD Vance, U.S. Central Command and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the source added.
Asked whether the announcement of Project Freedom caught the Saudi leaders by surprise, the Saudi source said: “The problem with that premise is that things are happening quickly in real time.” The source said Saudi Arabia was “very supportive of the diplomatic efforts” by Pakistan to broker a deal between Iran and the U.S. to end the war.
A White House official said in a statement when asked about some Gulf state leaders being caught off guard by the announcement of the U.S. effort to help ships transit the Strait of Hormuz, “Regional allies were notified in advance.”
A Middle Eastern diplomat said the U.S. did not coordinate Project Freedom with the Omanis until after Trump made the announcement. “The U.S. made an announcement and then coordinated with us,” the diplomat said, adding, “we were not upset or angry.”
Trump had announced the operation over the weekend as a way to break Iran’s blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and his top national security leaders spent much of Tuesday talking up the effort in public briefings at the Pentagon and White House, only to have the president suddenly halt the operation roughly 36 hours after it began.
The U.S. military had been lining up a number of additional ships in the Gulf for transit through the strait when the operation was stopped, a U.S. official said. U.S. Central Command had earlier announced that two U.S. flagged ships had made it through the strait as part of Project Freedom.
In his post, Trump said Project Freedom would be “paused for a short period of time to see whether or not” an agreement to resolve the war “can be finalized and signed.”
The U.S. military maintains fighter aircraft, refueling tankers and air defenses at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis allowed the U.S. to fly aircraft from there to support the war in Iran, as well as allowing aircraft based in nearby countries to fly over.
“Because of geography, you need cooperation from regional partners to utilize their airspace along their borders,” one U.S. official said. In some cases there is no other way around, the official explained. Military aircraft were critical to protect ships during Project Freedom, essentially providing a defensive umbrella.
The U.S. military refers to permission to use another country’s territory as ABO, which stands for access, basing and overflight. Fighter jets, refueling tankers and support aircraft all need permission to fly from key regional allies. Saudi Arabia and Jordan are critical for allowing aircraft to base there, Kuwait is critical for overflight, and Oman for both overflight and naval logistics.
Trump called the emir of Qatar after Project Freedom began, and a Qatari official said in a statement that they discussed the ceasefire agreement and “implications for maritime security and global supply chains.” The statement said the emir emphasized the importance of de-escalation.
The U.S. military continues to maintain a presence in and around the Gulf. It has a bigger footprint in the region than it did on Feb. 28 when the war began. There are two carrier strike groups in the region, and the Pentagon has brought in additional logistics and support and has re-supplied stockpiles.
Project Freedom briefly provided U.S. military surveillance, firepower and personnel on board ships so they could safely transit out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian forces continued to threaten and attack ships in transit through the critical waterway. Pentagon officials said the operation was separate from the bombing campaign that began on Feb. 28 and was dubbed “Epic Fury.”
The Trump administration has attempted to push forward on a negotiated agreement to end the hostilities. Iran was reviewing another peace proposal with the U.S., Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in an interview with Iran’s semiofficial ISNA news agency. He said once the regime has assessed it, Iran will discuss it with Pakistan, which has been acting as a mediator. Axios first reported details of the proposal.
In a social media post early Wednesday, Trump didn’t detail the proposal, but said the war could end if “Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to.”
“They want to make a deal,” Trump said from the Oval Office on Wednesday. He said there had been “very good talks over the last 24 hours.”
The political pressure is mounting on Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, when Republicans will be fighting to preserve their narrow margin in the House and majority in the Senate. In an interview with PBS on Wednesday, the president said it’s possible U.S. negotiators could strike a deal with Iran’s regime before he travels to Beijing next week for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
“I think it’s got a very good chance of ending, and if it doesn’t end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them,” Trump told PBS.
Several close Trump confidants have encouraged the president to “finish the job” in Iran by taking out the rest of the regime’s conventional military assets, even insisting that the offensive could be completed by the time of the critical China trip, according to multiple former U.S. officials.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian leaders Wednesday and said it was critical the war ended as soon as possible.
“We believe that a comprehensive ceasefire is urgently needed, that a resumption of hostilities is not acceptable, and that it is particularly important to remain committed to dialogue and negotiations,” Wang said in a video of the meeting accessed by The Associated Press.
In a post on social media, a senior Iranian parliament official called the latest proposal a “wish list until it becomes a reality.”
“Americans will not obtain through a failed war what they failed to gain in face-to-face negotiations, Ebrahim Rezaei said on X. “Iran has its finger on the trigger and is ready; if they do not surrender and grant the necessary concessions, or if they or their devilish henchdog allies try to act mischievously, we will deliver a harsh and regret-inducing response.”
But a Jordanian official told NBC News that the diplomatic efforts were serious.
“The Iranians don’t have the economic means to keep this going,” the official said. “Their economy is failing, they can’t pay salaries.”
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Trump Closes in on Deal(with Iran)That Could Drag Catastrophe Out for Years
Trump administration sows confusion as it tries to reopen Strait of Hormuz
BEN FINLEY/MATTHEW LEE /FARNOUSH AMIRI, 05/07/26
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Trump administration's approach to the Iran war over the past 24 hours has pinballed from declarations that a tenuous ceasefire was holding and military operations were over to new threats of bombing the Islamic Republic.
Tuesday started with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explaining how the U.S. military was protecting stranded ships so they could traverse the Strait of Hormuz. He insisted it was a defensive operation and the truce was still in place even though Iran had launched missiles and drones at U.S. forces, which sank Tehran’s small attack boats.
That afternoon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House that the military operation was “concluded” and that the U.S. achieved its objectives. But in almost the same breath, he said President Donald Trump was still seeking a “path of peace” that required Iran to agree to a deal to reopen the vital oil shipping corridor.
By Tuesday evening, Trump announced that the effort to protect ships was paused to see if an agreement could be reached. Then on Wednesday morning, he again warned that bombing would resume if Tehran didn't agree to U.S. terms.
The Trump administration’s shifting and often contradictory messaging throughout the Iran war has produced ever more confusion this week as the president and his aides presented a dizzying narrative over the U.S. strategy to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and wrap up the war that drastically changed over the course of mere hours.
Administration officials have been trying to walk a fine line between maintaining the ceasefire and reopening the strait, where 20% of the world’s oil normally flows. The economic fallout is growing as fuel prices rise, with Republicans facing increasing pressure to find solutions to higher costs ahead of the midterm congressional elections.
Aides are trying to sell Trump's strategies
The Trump administration has struggled with its messaging because the war wasn't well planned, said Elizabeth Dent, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“Because it happened very quickly, it wasn’t sold to the American public in a way that I think was palatable,” said Dent, a former official in the State Department and Pentagon. “Now I think Trump is sort of doing everything he can to prevent a return of hostilities because he saw how unpopular the war was.”
Throughout the conflict, the president has shifted his priorities and his perspectives on victory. He's offered a murky definition of a ceasefire. And he's provided his own interpretation of a law that requires congressional approval for military operations after 60 days.
The confusion is fueled in part by Trump’s tendency to make off-the-cuff statements that essentially make policy, Dent said. Aides like Rubio and Hegseth must then explain Trump's statements.
The whirlwind 24 hours of decision-making by the Trump administration also reflects a realization that any alternative to an agreement “is going to range from unpalatable to outright ugly” at a moment of great political importance for the Republican president, said Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group.
“This is not an administration that operates based on a policy process. It operates based on impulse. And the president seems now both tired of this war and reluctant to continue investing his political capital into it,” Vaez said.
The administration's narrative whipsaws on the Strait of Hormuz effort
The last couple of days have been emblematic of how the Trump administration's statements can seem out of sync and hard to follow.
The president said Sunday that U.S. forces would safely guide hundreds of stranded commercial vessels out of the strait, which Iran has effectively closed by firing at ships off its coast.
On Tuesday, Hegseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, said two American-flagged freighters transited the waterway to lead the effort, but Iran fired at U.S. ships and the military sank six Iranian small attack boats.
When asked about the fire from both sides, Hegseth said, “No, the ceasefire is not over.” Caine also said Iranian attacks did not reach the level of “restarting major combat operations.”
Rubio later insisted Trump's preference was diplomacy.
“Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation,” he said, referring to the code name for the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. “What the president would prefer is a deal.”
A deal seemed closer at hand when Trump said Tuesday night on social media that he was halting the operation in the strait to see what would happen with negotiations. But on Wednesday morning, Trump threatened Iran once again.
“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” he wrote on Truth Social.
The U.S. military said Wednesday that it shot at and disabled an Iranian oil tanker as it tried to breach the blockade of Iran’s shipping.
Seeking help from other countries in the strait
Another confusing element is the administration's efforts to persuade allies to deploy warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has been lashing out at countries unwilling to do more, telling them to “go get your own oil” and saying it was not America’s job to secure the strait. But administration officials have begun actively soliciting help while toning down their language.
Rubio said the issue is not a lack of interest, but that many are unable to provide the necessary resources.
“A lot of countries would love to do something about it. But they don’t have a navy, right? Or they can’t get there in time,” he said.
After Trump's abrupt suspension of the initiative, two U.S. officials said the administration was still deciding whether, and how, to proceed with planning, following the State Department’s formal request for support from countries last week.
The officials, who spoke on Wednesday on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said Trump’s announcement had not been expected and that they had not been offered detailed guidance on whether to withdraw the requests for support.
U.S. allies like Britain and France have rejected on-again, off-again suggestions from Trump that they become militarily involved, but they have led the formation of a separate international maritime coalition to secure the strait — but only once the threat to shipping ends. France’s aircraft carrier strike group is moving south of the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea in preparation for a potential French-British mission in the strait.
The issue only has been more complicated by Trump’s trip to Beijing next week.
“Going to China while the strait remains closed is humiliating for President Trump and puts China in a position of strength vis-a-vis the United States, because President Trump would have to, as he has done recently, ask for China’s help to resolve a problem that didn’t exist before he launched a war,” Vaez said.
Amiri reported from New York.
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拭目以待，屏息以待。
US and Iran closing in on memorandum to end war, Pakistani source says
Ariba Shahid/Steve Holland, 05/06/26
Summary
* Pakistani source: 'We will close this very soon'
* Iran demands fair, comprehensive deal in talks, Foreign Minister Araqchi says
* Trump claims 'great progress' towards agreement, pauses ship escorts through Hormuz
* French container ship hit in strait, crew injured
* Blockade of strait, ongoing conflict disrupt oil supply and global economy
ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON, May 6 (Reuters) - The United States and Iran are closing in on an agreement on a one-page memorandum to end the war in the Gulf, a source from mediator Pakistan familiar with the negotiations said.
The Pakistani source said a report earlier by the U.S. media outlet Axios on the proposed memorandum was accurate. The Axios report had cited two U.S. officials and two other sources familiar with the discussions.
"We will close this very soon. We are getting close," the Pakistani source said. Last month Pakistan hosted the war's only peace talks so far, and it has continued in that role of mediator, ferrying proposals between the sides.
Reports of the possible agreement to end the war caused global oil prices to plunge, with benchmark Brent crude futures falling more than 8% to around $100 a barrel. Global share prices also leapt and bond yields fell on optimism of an end to a war that has disrupted energy supplies.
The White House, the State Department and Iranian officials contacted by Reuters did not immediately respond to requests for comment. U.S. news channel CNBC quoted a spokesperson from the Iranian foreign ministry as saying Tehran was evaluating a 14-point U.S. proposal.
Axios reported that the White House believed it was closing in on a one-page memorandum to end the war with Iran. The report came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump paused a three-day-old naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Axios report said the U.S. expected Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Among other provisions, Axios said, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
14-POINT MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING
The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding was being negotiated between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators, Axios said.
In its current form, the memorandum would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran's nuclear programme and lift U.S. sanctions, Axios added.
Iran's restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade of Iran would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, Axios said, citing one U.S. official who added that if the negotiations collapsed, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action.
Earlier, Trump announced a pause to "Project Freedom", a mission he announced on Sunday to guide ships through the blocked strait. The mission had failed to bring about any significant resumption of traffic through the waterway, while provoking a new wave of Iranian strikes on ships in the strait and on targets in neighbouring countries.
In the latest incident, a French shipping company reported on Wednesday that one of its container ships had been struck in the strait the previous day, and that injured crew had been evacuated.
In announcing he was pausing the mission, Trump cited "great progress" in negotiations with Iran, without giving further details.
"We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed," Trump wrote on social media.
Trump had launched the naval mission to guide ships through the strait after saying he was likely to reject Iran's latest proposal. The Iranian offer, made last week, also contained 14 points.
It had called for setting aside discussion of nuclear issues until after the war ended and the shipping dispute was resolved.
In comments on a visit to China on Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi made no mention of Trump's latest remarks, but said Tehran was holding out for "a fair and comprehensive agreement".
A map showing the inbound and outbound shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to the the maritime boundary between Oman and Iran. 伊朗控制區域地圖
STRAIT SHUT SINCE END OF FEBRUARY
Iran has effectively shut the strait to all shipping apart from its own since the United States and Israel launched the war on February 28. In April, Washington imposed its own separate blockade of Iranian ports.
Trump's Project Freedom mission to use the U.S. Navy to open the strait failed to persuade merchant ships that it was safe, while provoking new attacks from Iran, which said it was expanding the area under its control to include swathes of the coastline of the United Arab Emirates, on the strait's far side.
While the mission was in effect, Iranian drones and missiles hit several ships in and around the strait, including a South Korean cargo vessel that reported an explosion in its engine room.
Tehran also repeatedly struck targets in the UAE, including the only major Emirati oil port on the coast beyond the strait, which has allowed some exports without crossing through it.
Reporting by Reuters bureaus Writing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Peter Graff Editing by Lincoln Feast and Alex Richardson
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Ariba Shahid, Thomson Reuters, is a journalist based in Karachi, Pakistan. She primarily covers economic and financial news from Pakistan, along with Karachi-centric stories. Ariba has previously worked at DealStreetAsia and Profit Magazine.
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伊朗提議雙方一月內終結戰爭 - Jorg Luyken
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Iran offers Trump one-month deal to end war as world faces ‘tipping point’
Jorg Luyken, 05/03/26
Iran has proposed a one-month deadline to permanently end the war with the US and open the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest deal submitted by Tehran to Donald Trump via mediators in Pakistan would leave the issue of its nuclear capabilities unresolved until after agreement has been met on other issues.
The proposal arrived as oil analysts warned that a “tipping point” in global crude oil reserves would be hit by the end of May, threatening to send prices soaring in the summer.
The 14-point plan would require both sides to lift their blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, completely end the war in Lebanon, and release Iran’s frozen assets. It would also require the US to pay compensation and lift sanctions against Tehran.
Iran has proposed a deadline of a month for the two sides to reach an agreement on a permanent end to the war. Only in a second stage would the two sides discuss the country’s nuclear programme.
In an initial reaction, Mr Trump appeared to reject the plan.
“I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years,” the US president said in a post on his Truth Social platform.
Mr Trump has said he is waiting for the exact wording of the Iranian proposal. He has also kept the possibility of renewing strikes on Iran on the table.
Asked on Saturday whether he might restart attacks on Iran, the US president replied: “I don’t want to say that. I mean, I can’t tell that to a reporter. If they misbehave, if they do something bad, right now we’ll see. But it’s a possibility that could happen.”
On Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Mr Trump that he faced a choice between an “impossible” continuation of the conflict or a “bad deal”.
A statement carried by state TV said the US’s choices to end the war had “narrowed”, citing what it described as a “shift in tone” from China, Russia and Europe towards Washington.
It also said Iran had imposed a “deadline” for the US lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, without elaborating.
Oil analysts have warned that stocks of crude oil, diesel and jet fuel will hit critically low levels by the end of May and completely run out by the end of June, potentially throwing the world into a recession.
“You can pick a number” when it comes to how high the oil price will go if the conflict remains unresolved by the end of June, one analyst told the Financial Times.
Arms deals fast-tracked
The US state department has fast-tracked arms deals to the Middle East, bypassing Congressional approval, as the countries that bore the brunt of Iranian ballistic missile attacks during the five-week conflict seek to replenish air-defence systems.
Qatar is the biggest purchaser, spending $5bn on weaponry, while Kuwait has ordered weapons valued at $2.5bn, with total sales to the region accumulating to over €8bn.
Meanwhile, fighting continues in southern Lebanon, where Israel ordered the evacuation of 11 settlements, telling residents to leave their homes and move at least a kilometre from the area.
The Israeli military said it would be conducting operations against Hezbollah. It has continued hitting the Iran-backed militia, with 13 people reported killed in the latest strikes. Hezbollah has also kept up its attacks on northern Israel.
In a further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East, an oil tanker has been hijacked off the coast of Yemen. The country’s coast guard said unidentified armed men captured the vessel, seized control and steered it toward the Gulf of Aden in the direction of Somali waters.
The coast guard added that it had identified the tanker’s location and was working to track it, take necessary measures to recover it, and ensure the safety of its crew.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump has caused further unease inside Nato by suggesting an announcement on pulling 5,000 US troops out of Germany was just the beginning.
“We’re going to cut way down. And we’re cutting a lot further than 5,000,” the US president told reporters in Florida.
The US announced the reduction in troop numbers in the key Nato ally after Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, said that Iran was “humiliating” the US via its blockade of oil supplies.
Mr Merz’s remarks led to an angry response by Mr Trump, who has fallen out with several European allies since the war began.
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