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川、普野合後之歐洲--開欄文
2025/02/17 16:08 瀏覽983|回應13推薦1

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英國首相強硬.表態 -- David Mercer 

(
此為本文原標題,02/24改為現在的標題。「川、普」 者,「川普與普丁」之合稱也。)

我不熟悉歐洲政局也很少關注偶而讀到的評論對史塔默並不看好。但從他這個正式發言,我認為他的國際觀相當靠譜。做為二流國家的領袖真是「好樣的!」

下文中的 “Before attending an emergency summit with European leaders in Paris on Monday, …”,請見下一篇報導。也請參考國際現勢2025》,以及《歐洲各國領袖積極準備第三次世界大》一欄。


PM 'ready' to put troops on ground in Ukraine to protect peace

David Mercer - BBC News, 02/17/25

Sir Keir Starmer has said he is "ready and willing" to put UK troops on the ground in Ukraine to help guarantee its security as part of a peace deal.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, the UK prime minister said securing a lasting peace in Ukraine was "essential if we are to deter Putin from further aggression in the future".

Before attending an emergency summit with European leaders in Paris on Monday, Sir Keir said the UK was prepared to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by "putting our own troops on the ground if necessary".

"I do not say that lightly," he wrote. "I feel very deeply the responsibility that comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm's way."

The prime minister added: "But any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine's security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent, and the security of this country."

The end of Russia's war with Ukraine "when it comes, cannot merely become a temporary pause before Putin attacks again", Sir Keir said.

UK troops could be deployed alongside soldiers from other European nations alongside the border between Ukrainian-held and Russian-held territory.

Sir Keir's announcement comes after the former head of the Army, Lord Dannatt, told the BBC the UK military was "so run down" it could not lead any future peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.

The PM has previously only hinted that British troops could be involved in safeguarding Ukraine after a ceasefire.

He is due to visit President Donald Trump in Washington later this month and said a "US security guarantee is essential for a lasting peace, because only the US can deter Putin from attacking again".

Sir Keir is meeting with other European leaders in response to concerns the US is moving forward with Russia on peace talks that will lock out the continent.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to meet Russian officials in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, US officials say.

On Saturday the US special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said European leaders would be consulted only and not take part in any talks between the US and Russia.

A senior Ukrainian government source told the BBC on Sunday that Kyiv has not been invited to talks between the US and Russia.

Trump earlier this week announced he had had a lengthy conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and that negotiations to stop the "ridiculous war" in Ukraine would begin "immediately".

Trump then "informed" Zelensky of his plan.

On Sunday, Trump said that he expected Zelensky to be involved in the talks. He also said he would allow European nations to buy US weapons for Ukraine.

Asked by the BBC about his timetable for an end to fighting, Trump said only that "we're working to get it done" and laid the blame for the war on the previous administration's Ukraine policies.

Writing in the Telegraph, Sir Keir said "peace cannot come at any cost" and "Ukraine must be at the table in these negotiations, because anything less would accept Putin's position that Ukraine is not a real nation".

He added: "We cannot have another situation like Afghanistan, where the US negotiated directly with the Taliban and cut out the Afghan government - in reference to a deal negotiated by Trump's first administration, which was later enacted by the Biden administration.

"I feel sure that President Trump will want to avoid this too," said Sir Keir

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Sir Keir said Ukraine's path to Nato membership was "irreversible" and European nations "must increase our defence spending and take on a greater role" in the alliance.

The UK currently spends around 2.3% of GDP on defence and has committed to increase defence spending to a 2.5% share of the economy, without giving a timeframe for this.

Trump has called for Nato members to spend 5% of GDP on defence, while Nato secretary general Mark Rutte has suggested allies should spend more than 3%.

Lord Dannatt - who was head of the Army from 2006 to 2009 - told the BBC up to 40,000 UK troops would be needed on rotation for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine and "we just haven't got that number available".

He said, in total, a force to keep the peace would require about 100,000 troops on the ground and the UK would have to supply "quite a proportion of that and we really couldn't do it".

The meeting in Paris called by French President Emmanuel Macron will see Sir Keir joined by leaders from Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark along with the presidents of the European Council and European Commission, and Rutte.


相關訊息

Ukraine end game: What each side wants from peace deal
Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia
Trump wants peace. Ukrainians fear what that might look like
Analysis: Vance's blast at Europe ignores Ukraine and defence agenda


本文於 2025/02/25 06:13 修改第 8 次
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《丹麥積極建軍》小評
2025/02/25 05:58 推薦1


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胡卜凱

真的是風聲鶴唳,草木皆兵(請見本欄上一篇報導)。不過,我相信丹麥情報單位擺了一個大烏龍,或故意扮演高喊「狼來了」的小朋友

我雖然不是軍事家,更沒有任何官方資訊和小道消息的來源;但是,我認為:不論川普如何暗渡陳倉,利益輸送;俄國軍力在三年內難以重整;俄國國力在五年內無法再開戰端。

我相信,丹麥政府只是在整軍經武上拔了頭籌;年底之前,至少半數北約國家政府將朝這個方向跟進。畢竟,外國人熟讀《孫子》者大有人在,對各國參謀本部官員來說,「故用兵之法,恃其不來,恃有以待之」應該是耳熟能詳之言。

此外,身為「唯物論」信徒,我無意詛咒任何人;川普和普丁同之。世界上如果有所謂的「真理」,「凡人皆有死」跟「歲月不饒人」應該是「真理」中的「真理」。72歲在獨裁者中雖然算得上少壯派但除了台灣的「三客流」外(該欄2024/02/13貼文註1),沒有人說得出「人生七十才開始」這種無恥之話。普大爺的肌肉秀再養眼,他應該沒有幾年能活蹦亂跳了。

本文於 2025/02/26 02:19 修改第 2 次
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丹麥積極建軍 -- Jason Ma
2025/02/24 17:48 推薦1


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This NATO ally will ‘buy, buy, buy’ more weapons as quickly as possible after intelligence report says Russia may start a war in Europe in a few years

Jason Ma, 02/23/25

*  Denmark will spend 70% more on defense over the next two years, bringing its outlays to 3.2% of GDP, as President Donald Trump has called on NATO countries to boost their militaries. The planned increase also follows a Danish intelligence report that said Russia may start a war in Europe within years.

NATO member Denmark will pour billions more into its military as Europe reckons with the risks of wavering US support for the trans-Atlantic alliance and continued aggression from Russia.

Over the next two years, Denmark will spend an additional $7 billion on defense, representing a 70% increase and lifting its outlays to 3.2% of GDP from 2.4% last year.

On Wednesday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen signaled urgency in its procurement plans, which will also be aided by waivers and a restructuring of the defense ministry.

"There is one message for the chief of defense: Buy, buy, buy," 
she told reporters, later adding, "If we can't get the best equipment, buy the next best. There's only one thing that counts now and that is speed."

The infusion of funds will enable Denmark to buy cutting-edge weapons and send more equipment to Ukraine. It also comes a month after pledging $1.9 billion to reinforce Greenland's defenses as Russia has raised its military profile in the Arctic while Trump has said the US should own the island.

NATO members have backed a target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, but several have fallen short, and President Donald Trump has said they should increase their goal to as much as 5%.

Meanwhile, European defense contractors like 
BAE Systems, Thales, Leonardo, and Saab have shot up since Trump was elected, outperforming US giants like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.

That's as he pushes for 
cuts at the Pentagon and a swift end to Russia's three-year-old war on Ukraine, with the potential for European troops being deployed to Ukraine as part of a settlement.

Earlier this month, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service assessed the risk from Russia once its Ukraine war stops or freezes in place.

Russia could launch a local war against a bordering country within six months, a regional war in the Baltics within two years, and a large-scale attack on Europe within five years if the US does not get involved, according to a translation of the 
report from Politico.

"Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided," according to the report, which was dated Feb. 9 and released Tuesday. "This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the US cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia."

That warning was echoed by Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, who wrote in the 
Financial Times on Friday that Russia is reconstituting its military to become bigger and better in five years.

And even if Russia's Ukraine war ends and sanctions on Moscow are lifted, President Vladimir Putin will remain hostile to the West, viewing it as a "mortal enemy," he added.

"Putin’s triumphalism, vengefulness and desire to make a mark on Russian history, along with the glaring lack of checks and balances in the Kremlin, will prompt Moscow to start preparing for the next war while stepping up its intimidation campaign against Europe," Gabuev said.


This story was originally featured on 
Fortune.com

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歐洲領袖規劃烏克蘭和議對策 - Andrew E. Kramer
2025/02/17 21:12 推薦1


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Left Out of Ukraine Talks, Europe Races to Organize a Response

The Trump administration’s push for direct negotiations with Russia without Ukraine’s involvement leaves the European allies with no clear role.

Andrew E. Kramer, Reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine, 02/16/25

While American officials prepared on Sunday for the start of talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine, European leaders were rushing to formulate a response to President Trump’s push for a settlement that appeared to leave them and Kyiv with no clear role in the process.

The Russian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, where the talks are set to take place this week, met Sunday with the kingdom’s foreign minister. Two senior Trump administration officials — the national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and the Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff — will fly to Saudi Arabia to join Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the negotiations, Mr. Witkoff said Sunday in an interview on Sunday Morning Futures, on Fox News.

The final preparations follow a flurry of diplomatic discussions over the past several days that included a conversation between Mr. Rubio and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov.

On Sunday, Mr. Rubio said in an interview from Jerusalem with CBS News that if an opportunity presented itself “for a broader conversation that would involve Ukraine, that would involve the end of the war, that would involve our allies all over the world, particularly in Europe, we’re going to explore it if that opportunity presents itself.”

The meeting with Russia, while preliminary, would signal the start of Mr. Trump’s accelerated timetable for a deal and his seeming determination to conduct negotiations with Russia alone, at least for now.

Ukraine will not take part, Andriy Yermak, the head of the President Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential office, confirmed Sunday in a post on the Telegram social networking site. He said that Ukraine would prefer to reach a common plan for negotiations with the Trump administration before meeting with a Russian delegation.

“There have been no meetings, nor are any planned,” Mr. Yermak wrote. “The president made it clear that any agreement reached without Ukraine’s involvement will not be accepted. Security guarantees must include the United States. We will never make decisions that go against Ukraine’s interests.”

In an initiative initially encouraged by Ukraine, the Trump administration is in talks to secure a portion of the profits from Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for security aid. But when the administration proposal arrived, Mr. Zelensky declined the terms, under which the United States would receive half of the profits.

Mr. Zelensky said he declined, in part, because it offered no assurances of U.S. support in the war in exchange. It has not been clear whether the U.S. demand is tied to future aid or seen as compensation for assistance already provided.

Mr. Zelensky’s rejection of the proposal prompted a rebuke from Mr. Waltz, the national security adviser. Mr. Zelensky, he said in an interview on Fox News Sunday, would be “very wise” to accept the deal, adding, “The American people deserve to be recouped, deserve to have some kind of payback for the billions they have invested in this war.”

The leaders of France, Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark, and the top officials of the European Union and NATO, will convene an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday to discuss the war in Ukraine and European security, French officials said Sunday. The aim is to coordinate a response to the Trump administration’s opening of talks with Russia without European participation.

That follows a meeting Sunday of foreign ministers from the European Union, which as a bloc has provided more military support for Ukraine than has the United States.

In the Fox News interview, Mr. Waltz denied that the Europeans were being excluded from the negotiations. “They may not like some of the sequencing that is going on in some of these negotiations,” he said. “I have to push back on any notion that they aren’t being consulted. They absolutely are.”

Mr. Waltz added that the U.S. negotiators “will bring everyone together when appropriate,” while specifying that the Europeans will be expected to “provide long-term military guarantees.”

Mr. Zelensky said he would be in Saudi Arabia this week but did not specify when. He has made clear he does not want to enter negotiations before determining what security guarantees Western nations are willing to offer to ensure any cease-fire is not violated. As of Saturday, he said he had no such assurances from the United States.

In an interview with NBC on Sunday he reiterated that he would “never” accept a peace negotiation settled between Russia and the United States without Ukraine.

Asked if he feels he has a seat at the table right now, Mr. Zelensky did not answer directly. He said he counted on one. He said he told Mr. Trump that Putin “is a liar” who “doesn’t want any peace.”

In Moscow, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. But Russian state television on Sunday released an interview with Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, who reasserted Russia’s newfound optimism about negotiating with the United States after years of diplomatic isolation by the Biden administration.

“We’re now going to be talking about peace, not about war,” Mr. Peskov said. “Based on President Trump’s statements, we’re solving problems through dialogue.”

Russia and Ukraine have not met for direct talks in nearly three years. Direct Russian and Ukrainian talks, mediated first by Belarus and then Turkey, began at the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 but unraveled six weeks later. They became untenable after Russia suffered battlefield defeats and after human rights abuses by the Russian Army came to light in the town of Bucha, where about 400 bodies were found on city streets, in mass graves and in backyards.

Russia subsequently lost about half of the territory gained in the invasion, but for a year it has been advancing in a bloody, slow-motion offensive in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine that has moved the front line about 30 miles. Ukraine has a pocket of Russian territory it captured six months ago in the Kursk region to use as leverage going into the talks.

For now, though, Ukrainians — who have endured hundreds of thousands of casualties in the fighting and missile attacks, electrical blackouts and displacement for civilians to fight Russia to a near stalemate — were left with the unwelcome prospect of negotiations on their future without their voice.

“I find this completely incomprehensible, and of course, it outrages me,” Vladyslava Bilova, 19, a student in Kyiv, said of Ukraine’s exclusion from the opening of talks. “It’s strange to decide the fate of a country when it is not even participating in the process.”

Viktor Reuta, 49, a soldier, said Ukrainians would not accept a settlement forced on them. “They can try to impose whatever they want,” he said. “We are already at war, and we have realized that we can speak for ourselves.”

The exclusion of Ukraine from the start of talks is “very unsettling and even terrifying,” said Vita Voinovska, 40, a pharmacist. She added, “It feels like three people are standing together, and two are talking to each other while the third — the one actually facing the problem — is standing there as if they don’t exist.”

Edward Wong contributed reporting from Washington, Oleksandra Mykolyshyn from Kyiv and Anton Troianovski from Berlin.


Andrew E. Kramer is the Kyiv bureau chief for The Times, who has been covering the war in Ukraine since 2014. More about Andrew E. Kramer

A version of this article appears in print on Feb. 17, 2025, Section A, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: As U.S. and Russia Set Talks on Ukraine, Europe and Kyiv Feel Left Out. 

See more on: 
Marco RubioEuropean UnionRussia-Ukraine War

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

Doubts in Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an NBC interview that Ukraine 
had a low chance of surviving Russia’s assault without U.S. support. If Ukraine cedes land to Russia to end the war, as the Trump administration has signaled it might, many Ukrainians feel they will be stranded forever.
Above Chernobyl: After a 
Russian drone strike blew a hole in the radiation shield looming 40 stories above the site, Ukraine is working to patch what covers the wreckage of the world’s worst nuclear accident.
 Worry Mounts: 
President Trump offered reassurances to Ukraine and Europe after leaders had expressed concern that they could be sidelined in talks between the U.S. and Russia to end the war.
Trump’s Influence: Trump 
characterized his first official call with President Vladimir Putin as the beginning of a negotiation to end the war in Ukraine. He also spoke with President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has tried to appeal to Trump’s transactional nature.

How We Verify Our Reporting


*  Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, 
photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details.
*  We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. 
Read more about our reporting efforts.

Want to stay updated on what’s happening in Saudi Arabia and Ukraine? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox. 


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