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德國蕭茲政府垮台與德國政局 – C. F. Schuetze/J. Tankersley
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2024/12/17 12:04 瀏覽266 ｜回應2｜推薦1 |
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German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe
Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote, deepening the political turbulence in one of the continent’s most powerful economies.
Christopher F. Schuetze/Jim Tankersley, 12/16/24
The German government collapsed on Monday as Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in Parliament, deepening a crisis of leadership across Europe at a time of mounting economic and security challenges.
The war in Ukraine has escalated. President-elect Donald J. Trump is set to take office in the United States, raising new questions over Europeans’ trade relations and military defense. And France’s government fell this month.
Now, Europe’s largest economy is in the hands of a caretaker government, ahead of elections early next year.
German lawmakers voted to dissolve the existing government by a vote of 394 to 207, with 116 abstaining.
The collapse of the government, just nine months before parliamentary elections had been scheduled, was an extraordinary moment for Germany. The elections, now expected on Feb. 23, will be only the fourth snap election in the 75 years since the modern state was founded, reflecting a new era of more fractious and unstable politics in a country long known for durable coalitions built on plodding consensus.
Mr. Scholz had little choice but to take the unusual step of calling for the confidence vote after his three-party coalition splintered in November, ending months of bitter internal squabbling and leaving him without a parliamentary majority to pass laws or a budget.
The country’s political uncertainty could last for months, with a new permanent government potentially not forming until April or May.
Seven parties will go into the campaign for Parliament with a realistic chance of gaining seats, and some on the political fringes — especially on the right — are poised for strong showings, according to polls. Mr. Scholz is widely expected to be ousted as chancellor. Polls currently suggest the conservative Christian Democrats are poised to finish first.
The campaign is likely to be dominated by several issues that have roiled Europe in recent years. Germany and France, traditionally the two most influential countries in the European Union, are mired in debates over how best to revive their struggling economies, breach growing social divides, ease voter anxieties over immigration and buttress national defense.
They and their E.U. partners are looking warily toward Russia, where President Vladimir V. Putin has escalated threats about the use of nuclear weapons amid Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
They are also vexed by their economic relationship with China, which has grown into a formidable competitor for many of their most important industries but has not become the booming consumer market for European products that leaders long envisioned.
And they are bracing for the start of the new presidential term for Mr. Trump, who has threatened a trade war and the end of the United States’ commitment to the NATO alliance that has guaranteed Europe’s security for 75 years.
The combination of challenges has proved politically unsettling. President Emmanuel Macron of France on Friday named his fourth prime minister in a year and is under mounting pressure to resign. Mr. Macron says he will stay in office and try to repair the deep fissures in his government over the 2025 budget.
Mr. Scholz’s government faced similar budget challenges, along with growing concerns about how to rebuild the German military in the face of a belligerent Russia and Mr. Trump’s criticism of NATO.
It is an inopportune time for Germany to be plunged into a grueling winter election campaign and a political freeze that could last until a new government takes power.
“The timing is absolutely terrible for the E.U. — basically, these multiple crises are hitting the E.U. at the worst possible time, because the bloc’s traditional engine is busy with itself,” Jana Puglierin, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said, referring to Germany and France.
The war in Ukraine and the need to bolster Germany’s military — and what that will cost — will be among the urgent issues likely to dominate the election campaign, along with the floundering economy, failing infrastructure, immigration and the rise of the political extremes.
Badly behind in the polls, Mr. Scholz is planning to highlight his caution when supplying Ukraine with weapons, especially sophisticated offensive hardware.
Under Mr. Scholz’s watch, Germany became the biggest European donor of weapons to Ukraine, according to a ranking by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research organization in Germany. But he prefers to point to his decision not to export the long-range missile system Taurus. Many in Berlin saw the chancellor’s phone call with Mr. Putin in November as a way to attract those voters who are nervous about Germany’s passive involvement in the war.
During what was billed as his first campaign speech last month, Mr. Scholz criticized his main opponent, Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, accusing him of provoking Russia with remarks that suggested he would provide Kyiv with more military aid if Russian forces continued bombing civilian infrastructure.
“I can only say: Be careful! You shouldn’t play Russian roulette with the security of Germany,” Mr. Scholz said.
The strategy appears to be working. Since the end of the three-party coalition, Mr. Scholz’s personal approval ratings have risen somewhat. But his party is still polling at around 17 percent, about half of what the conservatives are projected to win.
Mr. Scholz will have to fight hard to persuade voters to give him another chance. For now, it is Mr. Merz, a longtime figure on the political stage, who is widely expected to be the next chancellor, given his party’s strong lead in polls.
The three other mainstream parties are also led by well-known politicians, two of whom held important posts in the government: Christian Lindner, leader of the pro-business Free Democrats, whose falling out with the chancellor helped precipitate the collapse of the coalition; and Robert Habeck, the economic minister and lead candidate for the left-leaning Greens.
But in Germany’s fractious political landscape, no single party is likely to win an outright majority, leading to potentially tricky negotiations to build a coalition more functional and durable than the one that failed.
That necessity probably means that opponents cannot be criticized too heavily because they are all potential coalition partners. But it may also present mainstream parties with difficult decisions about whom they chose to work with.
All of the mainstream parties have said they would refuse to partner with the far-right Alternative for Germany, parts of which are being monitored as a threat to the Constitution by the domestic security services. Nonetheless, the party — which is known as the AfD and is polling at about 18 percent — appears to be gaining ground.
In closely watched state elections in September, both the AfD and a newer, extreme-left party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, had their best showings ever. But mainstream parties still consider them an anathema, making it hard to form governing coalitions in those states.
The results could portend equally messy coalition haggling in Berlin after a national vote, though the political fringes are less popular nationally than they are in those eastern states.
But given the likely vote tally, many political watchers predict a return of the grand coalition of the center between the Christian Democrats and the progressive Social Democratic Party, which governed Germany for 12 of the past 20 years.
Christopher F. Schuetze reported from Berlin, and Jim Tankersley from Washington.
Christopher F. Schuetze is a reporter for The Times based in Berlin, covering politics, society and culture in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. More about Christopher F. Schuetze
Jim Tankersley writes about economic policy at the White House and how it affects the country and the world. He has covered the topic for more than a dozen years in Washington, with a focus on the middle class. More about Jim Tankersley
See more on: Olaf Scholz, Russia-Ukraine War
Political Turmoil in Germany
Scholz Calls for Confidence Vote, in Step Toward German Elections, Dec. 11, 2024
Should Olaf Scholz Step Aside in the New Race for German Chancellor?, Nov. 21, 2024
What the Collapse of Germany’s Ruling Coalition Means, Nov. 7, 2024
本文於 2024/12/17 12:05 修改第 1 次
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德國政局展望--J. Tankersley等
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2025/02/24 20:37 推薦1 |
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如下文中所說，梅茲將是代表歐洲各國跟川普和普丁斡旋的領袖。我不熟悉其人其經歷，但從本欄上一篇報導看，或許梅茲很可能正是當前「時勢」下所需要或將造就的「英雄」。
Here are the latest developments.
Jim Tankersley, Christopher F. Schuetze, and Melissa Eddy, 02/23/25
Germans voted for a change of leadership on Sunday, with historically reliable exit polls from a parliamentary election showing centrist conservatives in the lead and the far right in second. The results amounted to a rebuke of the nation’s left-leaning government for its handling of the economy and immigration.
That almost certainly means the country’s next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democrats. But he will need at least one or two coalition partners to govern.
“We have won it,” Mr. Merz told supporters in Berlin on Sunday evening, promising to swiftly form a majority to govern the country and restore strong German leadership in Europe. “The outside world is not waiting for us,” he added. “And it is also not waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations.”
The election, which was held seven months ahead of schedule after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition, will now become an essential part of the European response to President Trump’s new world order. It drew what appeared to be the highest turnout in decades.
Mr. Merz has promised to crack down on migrants and slash taxes and business regulations in a bid to kick-start economic growth. He also vowed to bring stronger leadership in Europe at a moment when the new Trump administration has sowed anxiety on the continent by scrambling traditional alliances and embracing Russia.
Exit polls showed his Christian Democrats and their sister party, the Christian Social Union, winning a combined 29 percent of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD, appeared to be in second place.
On Sunday evening, suspense ran high about the coalition that Mr. Merz might be able to assemble. Smaller parties could play a key role. Like other German party leaders, Mr. Merz has promised never to partner with the AfD, parts of which are classified as extremist by German intelligence.
Here’s what we are following:
* Immigration policy: A series of deadly attacks over the past year committed by immigrants, including asylum seekers, put the issue of immigration front and center in the run-up to the election. But the assaults did not appear to have affected the outcome of Sunday’s elections.
* U.S. interference: The AfD gained support by promising to deport some immigrants and seal borders, which won the endorsement of the Trump adviser Elon Musk and a form of encouragement from Vice President JD Vance. While the U.S. meddling in the campaign put off some left-leaning voters on Sunday, it was welcomed by others supporting the AfD, according to interviews at polling stations. Mr. Merz on Sunday slammed what he called the “interference from Washington” in the election by Mr. Musk and Vice President Vance, saying in a televised debate that it was no worse than interference from Moscow.
* Economic crisis: Germany’s economy has not grown in five years and is suffering from an industrial competitiveness crisis. Forecasts show an economy rapidly sliding backward, stunning declines that have emerged as one of the biggest issues in the parliamentary election.
* Elevating the AfD: The AfD, with its anti-immigrant and nationalist platform, has long been a pariah of German politics. A new band of influencers unafraid of confrontation had helped push the Alternative for Germany party to second place in pre-election polls.
Jim Tankersley is the Berlin bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of Germany, Austria and Switzerland. More about Jim Tankersley
Christopher F. Schuetze is a reporter for The Times based in Berlin, covering politics, society and culture in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. More about Christopher F. Schuetze
Melissa Eddy is based in Berlin and reports on Germany’s politics, businesses and its economy. More about Melissa Eddy
本文於 2025/02/24 20:39 修改第 1 次
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梅茲叫板川普團隊 -- Steven Erlanger
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2025/02/21 17:43 推薦1 |
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這就是現實殘酷之處；梅茲基本上在告訴川普：
出錢、出力我敬你是大爺；不出錢、不出力你連屁都不是！那裏涼快那裏待著去。
Next Likely Chancellor Promises a Tougher Germany
Friedrich Merz, whose conservative party is ahead in polls before Sunday’s election, sees an “epochal rupture” with a United States that is more aligned with Russia.
Steven Erlanger, 02/20/25
Friedrich Merz, the man favored to be Germany’s next chancellor after elections on Sunday, is a conservative businessman who has never been a government minister and was forced out of party leadership years ago for challenging Angela Merkel.
As a Christian Democrat and committed trans-Atlanticist, he has been considered a potentially better match for President Trump than the current Social Democratic chancellor, Olaf Scholz. He is also expected to lead a foreign policy more aligned with Mr. Trump’s ideas about Europe’s taking responsibility for its own defense.
But recent comments by Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have displayed just how difficult any partnership may be with a United States that is less reliable and possibly hostile, and sympathetic to Russia’s narrative on Ukraine and spheres of influence.
That challenge is especially profound for Germany, and after Sunday is likely to fall on Mr. Merz, 69, who is known to be assertive and direct, if a bit awkward.
He pushed back strongly against Mr. Trump’s latest comments siding with Russia, as well as what was seen as interference in Germany’s election by Mr. Vance when he criticized Europe for sidelining far-right parties at the Munich Security Conference last week.
Speaking Tuesday night in Halle, Mr. Merz described a new contest between democracies and autocracies and spoke of “an epochal rupture” with the United States. “We see in America a president who admires autocratic systems and rides roughshod over all kinds of norms,” he said, and a “vice president who tells us how to run our democracy.”
Today he said, “we are no longer sure if the Americans still stand by our side as they did after 1945,” or “whether we can still rely on the Americans.”
Mr. Merz was also sharply critical of Mr. Vance’s intervention and had earlier defended German democracy and restrictions on hate speech. He accused Mr. Vance of “intervening quite openly in an election.” He slammed Mr. Trump’s trade policies, including threats of broad new tariffs on European goods and services.
That boldness is characteristic of Mr. Mertz, analysts say, and reflects a worldview that aspires to a Germany that is more forcefully engaged in European and global affairs. Mr. Scholz, on the other hand, has often been criticized for his tentativeness and caution, even from within his own coalition.
Mr. Merz has vowed to carve out a more prominent German role inside the European Union and NATO, to pursue better relations with France and Poland, and to take a tougher stance against China, which he has described as a full member of the “axis of autocracies.”
He has also promised more forthright support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia and that Germany will meet and surpass the current NATO target of 2 percent of gross domestic product being spent on the military. And he wants his ministers to be able to speak reasonable English.
“I fully agree with all those who are demanding more leadership from Germany,” Mr. Merz has said. “And I am willing to do that.”
The bluntness of Mr. Merz would benefit Germany, argued Noah Barkin, a senior adviser at the Rhodium Group, a geopolitical advisory firm, particularly at a moment when Europe’s security environment is rapidly changing.
“Scholz is extremely risk averse, a waffler, and Merz speaks in a clearer language, whether it’s on Russia or China,” Mr. Barkin said. “Scholz would never describe Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as an ‘axis of autocracies,’ and I wouldn’t underestimate that.”
Mr. Merz wants a single clear voice from the new government, Mr. Barkin said. “That won’t be easy in a coalition government or with the E.U.’s 27 member states, but the commitment is half the battle.”
Guntram Wolff, an economist and former head of the German Council on Foreign Relations, worked on a foreign-policy paper for Mr. Merz’s party. “There is a clear pro-European stance,” he said.
There is also “a clear understanding about Russia and Russian imperialism, that peace and freedom can only be sustained against Russia, not with it,” he added.
In a recent foreign-policy speech at the Körber Foundation, Mr. Merz, a former member of the European Parliament, promised to provide German leadership in Europe, which has not been a priority for Mr. Scholz, and to establish a national security council in the chancellery.
“I have been advocating that we do our own homework here in Europe in view of Donald Trump’s return to office, rather than sitting like a rabbit in front of a snake,” he said. “If we want to be taken seriously as equals, we as Europeans must put ourselves in a position to take responsibility for our own security.”
But given the compromise nature of German coalition politics — which may again require a three-party coalition after Sunday’s election — it’s also not a given that “the tougher rhetoric will lead to concrete changes in policy,” Mr. Barkin cautioned.
While German foreign policy is increasingly made inside the chancellery, traditionally a coalition partner demands to head the foreign ministry. Many expect that main partner to be the dovish Social Democrats, not least because their strength in the upper house of Parliament will be needed for any constitutional change on debt levels, which would make it far easier to increase military spending.
But given the conflicting ambitions on Ukraine of the possible coalition partners, some fear the resulting policy could be as muddled as that of the last government’s.
Mr. Merz has been more forward-leaning on the need for greater German support for Ukraine, saying, for instance, that he would provide Ukraine with Germany’s long-range cruise missile, the Taurus.
That is something that Mr. Scholz has steadfastly refused to do, fearing it could provoke Russia. The Scholz formula for Ukraine has been that Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose, which has been seen as a recipe for stalemate. Mr. Scholz has said he will not serve in a Merz cabinet, but another Social Democrat in the foreign ministry might be just as inclined to keep that policy.
Mr. Merz has not ruled out deploying German troops to secure a peace settlement in Ukraine, but he has been cautious, insisting that first there must be a coordinated European response, agreement from Moscow and a clear legal mandate.
“On paper, Merz looks and sounds like he would be clearer in his foreign policy, in defense and in his political and military support for Ukraine,” said Claudia Major, a foreign and defense analyst with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “But he must deal with his coalition partner, the economic situation and the Trump administration, and all this will limit his space for maneuver.”
Germany’s low economic growth could restrain any large increase in military spending, but a loosening of the constitutional debt brake, which Mr. Merz has promised, would create more fiscal space to do so.
As for China, given the importance of German exports there and Mr. Merz’s reputation as a supporter of free trade, few expect major changes to raise barriers to Chinese imports or to institute tougher investment screening or export controls.
“There will be changes in substance, but on the margins,” Mr. Barkin said. “And Merz will have trouble navigating Trump, but as a pro-American businessman he’ll be in a better position than Scholz.”
Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe and is based in Berlin. He has reported from over 120 countries, including Thailand, France, Israel, Germany and the former Soviet Union. More about Steven Erlanger
相關閱讀
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本文於 2025/02/22 00:58 修改第 2 次
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