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繼以色列刺殺真主黨領袖和人員，並侵入黎巴嫩後，伊朗政府不得不出手還擊。對以色列進行大規模飛彈空襲(請見本欄第二篇報導)。防空能力再先進，終究做不到滴水不漏。
我們常常聽到這句軍事學名言：
「攻擊是最佳的防守。」
既然「防不勝防」，想來以色列政府和軍方領袖一定會採取「以牙還牙」的戰略(請見本欄第三篇報導)。國際局勢最怕的就是：「嚇阻」演變成「以眼還眼」式的「反嚇阻」。這樣節節升高下去，2024以後能不能過個平安年就難說了。
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以色列還擊伊朗-T. Bennett
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What we know about Israel’s attack on Iran
Tom Bennett, BBC News, 10/27/24
Israel has carried out what it described as “precise and targeted” airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for the barrage of missile strikes launched by Tehran against Israel earlier this month.
It is the latest in a series of exchanges between the two countries that for months have sparked fears of an all-out regional war.
But while Iran says Saturday's strikes against military sites killed four soldiers, early indications suggest the attacks were more limited than had been feared.
Here’s what we know.
How did the attacks unfold?
Around 02:15 local time (22:45 GMT on Friday), Iranian media reported explosions in and around the capital, Tehran.
Video uploaded to social media and verified by the BBC showed projectiles in the sky over the city, while residents in some areas reported hearing loud booms.
Shortly after, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed it was carrying out “precise” strikes on “military targets” in Iran.
The attacks involved scores of aircraft, including jets and drones. The targets included Iran’s air defences, as well as missile and drone production, and launch facilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant followed the operation from the IDF’s command and control centre in Tel Aviv.
The strikes came in several waves, over a three-hour period. Just after 06:00 (03:00 GMT), the IDF said the strikes had concluded.
The White House described the strikes as an “exercise of self-defence”. A senior administration official said the US had worked with Israel to encourage a "targeted and proportional" response.
What was the scale of the attacks?
The extent of the attacks - and the damage caused - remains unclear at this stage.
The IDF said it hit around 20 targets, including missile manufacturing facilities, surface-to-air-missiles and other military sites.
The Iranian military confirmed that two soldiers had died “while battling projectiles”.
Iranian authorities said sites in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces were targeted. The country’s air defence said it had “successfully intercepted” the attacks, but that “some areas sustained limited damage”.
BBC Verify has identified damage at a defence ministry base to the east of Tehran, and at an air defence base to the south.
A senior US administration official said the attacks did not damage Iranian oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities, targets President Joe Biden had urged Israel not to hit.
Syrian state media also reported strikes on military sites in central and southern Syria, though Israel has not confirmed striking the country.
Why did Israel attack Iran?
Iran is the primary backer of a range of groups across the Middle East - often described as proxy groups - that are hostile to Israel, including Hamas and Hezbollah, which Israel is currently at war with.
In April, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel, with about 300 missiles and drones, in retaliation for an Israeli air strike on an Iranian embassy compound in Syria that killed several top commanders from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Israel responded with a “limited” strike on a missile defence system in the Iranian region of Isfahan, which Iran chose not to respond to.
Later, in July, Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on Beirut. The next day, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an explosion in Tehran. Iran blamed Israel, though Israel did not comment.
In late September, Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Brig-Gen Abbas Nilforoushan, a high-ranking Iranian official, in Beirut.
On October 1, Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, which it said was in response to the deaths of Haniyeh, Nasrallah and Nilforoushan.
What happens next?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office denied a report by US outlet Axios that prior to the attacks, Israel sent Iran a message revealing certain details about the strikes, and warning Tehran not to respond.
"Israel did not inform Iran before the attack - not about the time, not about the targets, not about the strength of the attack," the prime minister's spokesperson said.
Still, early signs indicate this attack was not as serious as some had feared.
The IDF said in a statement that "we are focused on our war objectives in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. It is Iran that continues to push for a wider regional escalation".
A senior US official said "this should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran".
Iran’s foreign ministry said it was "entitled and obligated to defend itself" and described the attack as a violation of international law.
But it also said that Tehran recognises its "responsibilities towards regional peace and security".
What is the situation in Iran?
Images published by Iranian state media show life continuing in relative normality - with busy streets, people exercising in parks, and fruit and vegetable markets open as usual.
Iran closed its airspace for a few hours overnight, but it later reopened and there are several commercial flights in the air across the country.
But there are signs the Iranian government are keen to play down the impact of the attacks.
The IRGC has announced that it is a criminal offense to send “images or news” related to the attack to outlets that it deems "Israel-affiliated" or "hostile”. Usually, Iran refers to Western media as hostile.
Iranian media reported today that Tehran's Prosecutor Office has filed charges against an unnamed website for “covering issues counter to national security".
How has the world responded?
US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said Israel’s response “avoided populated areas and focused solely on military targets, contrary to Iran's attack against Israel that targeted Israel's most populous city".
But Washington’s aim, he added, is “to accelerate diplomacy and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East region".
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Israel had the right to defend itself, but urged all sides to “show restraint” and called for Iran not to respond.
Saudi Arabia condemned the attack, and warned against any action that "threatens the security and the stability” of the region.
Egypt's foreign ministry echoed those concerns, saying it was “gravely concerned” by the strikes.
Hamas described them as "a flagrant violation of Iranian sovereignty, and an escalation that targets the security of the region and the safety of its peoples".
Additional reporting by Ghoncheh Habibiazad, BBC Monitorin
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以色列將反擊伊朗-D. Magdy等
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Israeli defense minister warns an attack on Iran would be ‘lethal’ and ‘surprising’
SAMY MAGDY, TIA GOLDENBERG and WAFAA SHURAFA, 10/10/24
JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s defense minister warned on Wednesday that his country’s retaliation for a recent Iranian missile attack will be “lethal” and “surprising,” while the Israeli military pushed ahead with a large-scale operation in northern Gaza and a ground offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah militants.
On the diplomatic front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden held their first call in seven weeks, with a White House press secretary saying the call included discussions on Israel’s deliberations over how it will respond to Iran’s attack.
The continuing cycle of destruction and death in Gaza, unleashed by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, comes as Israel expands a weeklong ground offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and considers a major retaliatory strike on Iran following Iran’s Oct. 1 missile barrage.
“Our strike will be lethal, precise and above all, surprising. They won’t understand what happened and how. They will see the results,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said during a speech to troops. “Whoever strikes us will be harmed and pay a price.”
Iran fired dozens of missiles at Israel on Oct. 1 which the United States helped fend off. Biden has said he would not support a retaliatory strike on sites related to Tehran’s nuclear program.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah claimed a rocket attack that killed two people in the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona. The town’s acting mayor, Ofir Yehezkeli, said the two killed were a couple walking their dogs.
Dozens killed in Gaza and survivors fear displacement
In northern Gaza, there was heavy fighting in Jabaliya, an urban refugee camp dating back to the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation, where Israeli forces have carried out several major operations over the course of the war and then returned as militants regroup. The entire north, including Gaza City, has suffered heavy destruction and has been largely isolated by Israeli forces since late last year.
In Gaza, Jabaliya residents said thousands of people have been trapped in their homes since the operation began Sunday, as Israeli jets and drones buzz overhead and troops battle militants in the streets.
“It’s like hell. We can’t get out,” said Mohamed Awda, who lives with his parents and six siblings. He said there were three bodies in the street outside his home that could not be retrieved because of the fighting.
“The quadcopters are everywhere, and they fire at anyone. You can’t even open the window,” he told The Associated Press by phone, speaking over the sound of explosions.
Gaza’s Health Ministry said it recovered 40 bodies from Jabaliya from Sunday until Tuesday, and another 14 from communities farther north. There are likely more bodies under rubble and in areas that can’t be accessed, it said.
Jabaliya residents fear Israel aims to depopulate the north and turn it into a closed military zone or a Jewish settlement. Israel has blocked all roads except for the main highway leading south from Jabaliya, according to residents.
“People here say clearly that they will die here in northern Gaza and won’t go to southern Gaza,” Ahmed Qamar, who lives in Jabaliya with his wife, children and parents, said in a text message.
Hospitals are under threat
Fadel Naeem, the director of Al-Ahly Hospital in Gaza City, said it had received dozens of wounded people and bodies from the north. “We declared a state of emergency, suspended scheduled surgeries, and discharged patients whose conditions are stable,” he told AP in a text message.
Israel’s offensive has gutted Gaza’s health sector, forcing most hospitals to shut down and leaving the rest only partially functioning.
Naeem said three hospitals farther north — Kamal Adwan, Awda and the Indonesian Hospital - have become almost inaccessible because of the fighting. The Gaza Health Ministry says the Israeli army has ordered all three to evacuate staff and patients. Meanwhile, no humanitarian aid has entered the north since Oct. 1, according to U.N. data.
Israel’s authority coordinating humanitarian affairs in Palestinian territories said Israel “has not halted the entry or coordination of humanitarian aid entering from its territory into the northern Gaza Strip.”
Israel says it only targets militants and blames civilian deaths on Hamas because it fights in residential areas.
Israel ordered the wholesale evacuation of northern Gaza, including Gaza City, in the opening weeks of the war, but hundreds of thousands of people are believed to have remained there. Israel reiterated those instructions over the weekend, telling people to flee south to a humanitarian zone where hundreds of thousands are already crammed into squalid tent camps.
The war began just over a year ago, when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250. They still hold around 100 hostages, a third of whom are believed to be dead.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not say how many were fighters. It has said women and children make up over half of the dead. The offensive has also caused staggering destruction across the territory and displaced around 90% of the population of 2.3 million people, often multiple times.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to keep fighting until “total victory” over Hamas and the return of all hostages.
Israel warns Lebanon it could end up like Gaza
On Tuesday, Netanyahu said Lebanon would meet the same fate as Gaza if its people did not rise up against Hezbollah.
In recent weeks Israel has waged a heavy air campaign across large parts of Lebanon, targeting what it says are Hezbollah rocket launchers and other militant sites. A series of strikes had killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and most of his top commanders.
An Israeli airstrike on Wednesday hit a Lebanese Civil Defense center in the town of Dardghaya in southern Lebanon, killing five members who were stationed there, civil defense spokesperson Elie Khairallah told The Associated Press. Among the victims was Abdullah Al-Moussawi, head of the Tyre Regional Center in the Lebanese Civil Defense, Khairallah said.
Just last week, Al-Moussawi spoke with the Associated Press, saying the Israeli airstrikes had made his team increasingly nervous, but that they were hopeful that the international protection guaranteed to medics will extend to them as well.
There was no immediate statement from the Israeli military. As of last Thursday, the Lebanese Health Ministry reported that over 100 paramedics had been killed by Israeli airstrikes.
Another strike on Wednesday killed four people and wounded another 10 at a hotel sheltering displaced people in the southern Lebanese town of Wardaniyeh, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said.
An Associated Press reporter in a nearby town heard two sonic booms from Israeli jets before the strike. Plumes of smoke rose from the building after the explosion.
The Israeli military said Wednesday that Hezbollah has fired more than 12,000 rockets, missiles and drones at Israel in the past year.
Video verified by The Associated Press also shows what appears to be a group of Israeli soldiers raising an Israeli flag in a village in southern Lebanon.
In the video, which appears to have been filmed in Maroun A-Ras, three soldiers are seen hoisting up a flag atop a pile of debris. A soldier off camera speaks in Hebrew and refers to the nearby Israeli village of Avivim. The date it was filmed wasn’t immediately known.
The video follows other similar acts that took place throughout Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. The Israeli military had no immediate comment.
Magdy reported from Cairo and Shurafa from Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip. Associated Press writers Sarah El Deeb, Sally Abou AlJoud and Kareem Chehayeb in Beirut, and Natalie Melzer in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed to this report.
Follow AP’s war coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war
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伊朗飛彈空襲以色列 -- Jotam Confino
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請至原網頁查看照片及圖表。
Iran has proved it can breach the world’s greatest air defence system. What comes next could be devastating
Jotam Confino, 10/10/24
The world watched helplessly as a missile barrage from Iran came raining down over Israel with less than 15 minutes’ warning.
A week after one of the heaviest single attacks in history – using advanced ballistic rockets – the full impact of the assault is only just becoming apparent.
Experts are frantically working to understand how – and if – Israel can defend itself from more waves of rockets if war continues to escalate in the Middle East.
How the Iran attack unfolded
Video filmed by a passenger on a commercial jet from Dubai captured the start of the attack, which appears to have come from near the Iranian city of Shiraz.
Shortly after, Israelis were instructed to run for shelter. Ballistic missiles are estimated to take about 12 minutes to reach their destination first entering the earth’s atmosphere and later re-entering at speed.
Videos from Jordan show the missiles streaking across the sky towards Israel, while footage from sources on the ground in Israel shows air defence systems activating, and in some cases being overwhelmed.
One video showed at least nine missiles making impact near military facilities in Israel, while detailed accounts later found many more had broken through.
Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, Senior Researcher at INSS, a think tank in Tel Aviv, said that Iran’s intention was to “saturate the air defence system” by firing an unprecedented 180 missiles at the same time.
How Iran broke through
Israel’s air defence system consists of several layers; the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and the Arrow weapon system, the world’s first anti-tactical ballistic missiles (surface-to-air missiles used to shoot down ballistic missiles).
Each system is designed to shoot missiles out of the sky at different altitudes, with the most recent version of Arrow designed to intercept missiles in space, known as “exo-atmospheric” interceptions. Videos from bystanders caught at least one of these rare sights last Tuesday.
“The idea is to shoot down the missile as far away from Israel as possible, preferably over the enemy’s territory,” Mr Kalisky told The Telegraph. Should that fail, the next layers are ready to shoot down the missile as the altitude lowers.
“David’s Sling and finally the Iron Dome can shoot down the missile when they are close enough to the ground,” Mr Kalisky said.
Experts said the videos suggest Israel may not have enough air defence units or intercepters to catch such a heavy barrage.
Some observers also voiced concern about the speed of the missiles.
Fabian Hoffman, a missile expert and doctoral research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, said the footage clearly shows the “extraordinary speed in real time, some 600/700 m per second, they are incredibly fast”.
All of the missiles Iran fired were “hypersonic in essence until they re-enter the atmosphere and are slowed down,” he added.
While Hezbollah sometimes fires hundreds of rockets at Israel in a short span of time, most of them are less advanced and are intercepted more easily.
What Iran hit
Israel initially downplayed the damage caused by the attack, but later admitted that several military bases were hit – although no aircraft or critical infrastructure were damaged.
A satellite image the company Planet Labs later revealed that the Nevatim Air Base had been impacted in 30 different places, damaging hangars and buildings.
A large crater from a missile was also found near the Israeli intelligence headquarters of Mossad in Glilot, north of Tel Aviv.
In total it is estimated that more than two dozen missiles broke through air defences. Some 20 missiles struck the Nevatim air base, while three missiles hit the Tel Nof base in central Israel.
Dr Kalinsky said it appeared that the Arrow system hit the engines on some of the missiles but that they continued to fly and eventually fell on the ground.
Debris from missiles was indeed found both in the West Bank and inside Israel following the attack.
The other flaws
While most of the attention has been drawn to Iran’s direct attack, Israel has been fending off smaller scale attacks since last October.
Some experts fear that the rise in drone attacks in particular have exposed a possible flaw or achilles heel in the Iron Dome.
Hundreds of drones have been launched from Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria in the past year, killing several people and causing severe damage to buildings, roads, and homes.
They fly at a low altitude, often under the Iron Dome’s radar, forcing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to manually detect and shoot them down. In July, an Iranian-made drone flew 2,000 km from Yemen before striking an apartment in Tel-Aviv, killing a civilian.
What next?
Security experts have warned for years that a major coordinated missile attack by Iran and its proxies could overwhelm the air defence system and cause huge destruction to civilian areas.
After last Tuesday’s attack, the evidence suggests a full-scale Iranian ballistic missile barrage hitting a densely populated area could kill hundreds of people.
Dr Kalinsky said “a direct hit will destroy some of the buildings” if an attack was launched at Tel-Aviv, for instance. But he said civilians would likely have time to get to bunkers owing to early warning systems. However, he warned that even an indirect hit would cause significant damage to infrastructure through powerful shockwaves.
While attacking civilian areas would be a major escalation, the prospect of an all-out war between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns.
However, experts like Dr Kalinsky caution that a larger missile barrage takes time and preparation, and would likely be detected in advance.
Israel is considered to have one of the best air defence systems in the world, and certainly one of the most densely deployed.
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