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日本新首相石破茂-Philip Patrick
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2024/09/27 23:45 瀏覽205|回應1|推薦1 |
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Japan’s next prime minister is a bit of a maverick Philip Patrick, 09/27/24 The 67-year-old Shigeru Ishiba will become Japan’s new prime minister on 1 October after winning a surprisingly exciting play-off vote against his rival Sanae Takaichi (高市早苗). For a moment it looked as if Japanese MPs were set to elect the country’s first female leader (Takaichi was ahead of Ishiba in the first round of voting) but in the end the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) opted for experience and former defence minister Ishiba’s safe, and crucially clean pair of hands. Ishiba is at first glance a typical Japanese politician and an unexciting choice for PM. He’s a former banker and has been in politics for nearly 40 years. He doesn’t have a particularly interesting backstory or much in the way of charisma. He looked like the dullest of the final three candidates. The other two were fun: Takaichi was once in a heavy metal band and is a Margaret Thatcher acolyte, and Shinjiro Koizumi (小泉進次郎,son of former PM Junichiro -- 小泉純一郎) has boy band looks and was given to amusing Kamala-esque word salad pronouncements. His (sarcastic) nickname was ‘the poet’. But Ishiba is a bit more interesting than he appears and is far from a conventional LDP seat filler. The reason he has failed so often (this was his fifth tilt at the top job) is ascribed to his willingness to criticise his colleagues and go his own way. Described as a ‘plain spoken populist’ by Time magazine and ‘blunt’ and ‘arrogant and condescending to his fellow lawmakers’ by Jeff Kingston of Asia University, Ishiba is smart and tough and doesn’t suffer fools gladly. He once did the unthinkable and actually left the LDP, Japan’s eternal party of government, and was briefly a member of something called the New Frontier party before returning to the fold. He publicly criticised LDP royalty such as the late Shinzo Abe and is reportedly hated by another former PM and current panjandrum Taro Aso. Some in his own party have even called him a traitor. In normal circumstances all that would have scuppered his chances. Until recently the Liberal Democratic party was not really liberal (but conservative), not democratic (it was controlled by party grandees) and perhaps not even really a party (but a series of factions). In such an environment those unwilling to play nice and build alliances to get ahead would have been doomed to a life on the backbenches. Now, though the LDP is in disarray after a series of internal feuds and scandals. The massively damaging slush fund affair, which saw a slew of resignations, had come hard on the heels of equally embarrassing revelations concerning the party’s long-standing and secret ties to the murky Unification Church. After the dam broke on the slush fund affair, it was recognised that serious reform of the party was necessary. The faction system that had jostled and schemed and rendered the LDP, and therefore Japanese, politics opaque and unaccountable was finally, almost entirely dissolved. This led to Fumio Kishida resigning as Prime Minister in August. The issue of a ‘cleaner’ politics became central to the choice of the new prime minister and now Ishiba’s reputation as being a bit self-righteous became an advantage. Polls conducted by the Sankei newspaper and Fuji TV network found that of those who prioritised cleaning up the slush fund scandal, Ishiba was the most popular. Many cited as the reason his resolve to to deal with corruption as the reason. An Asahi Shinbun poll also found that 47 per cent of respondents chose him over his rivals due to his ‘experience and accomplishments’ What kind of leader will Shigeru Ishiba be? He is the member for the rural coastal area of Tottori and as part of his leadership bid he pledged ‘large-scale regional development policies as Japan’s catalyst’ with incentives to attract innovators and entrepreneurs to the rapidly depopulating and seemingly moribund countryside. That will be a popular endeavour, but with various attempts at the same goal having failed, a difficult one to pull off. On foreign affairs, the other major issue during the campaign, Ishiba proposed one original idea, an Asian version of Nato to defend against the threats posed by China and North Korea. This saw him hailed as a Japanese Charles de Gaulle but it attracted little support in diplomatic or military circles in either Tokyo or Washington. He is also said to be in favour of Japan developing its own nuclear deterrent. He is not exactly a hawkish nationalist, though. He is rare in having criticised Japan’s conduct in the colonisation of Korea (between 1910 and 1945) a topic of renewed interest at the moment due to the Apple TV series Pachinko. What else? He is a fiscal conservative and apparently not keen on a fresh interest rate hike, though the markets seem to like him (the Yen has strengthened today). He was pro-renewable energy but has now swung behind nuclear. He seems to be opposed to same sex marriage but is in favour of couples retaining separate surnames (which is radical enough for Japan). On a personal level he is fond of building model ships and planes apparently, and his office is filled with his creations. He claims to read three books a day and doesn’t speak English. A bit of an oddball then, with a maverick streak, but a bit of that may be just what Japan needs. Philip Patrick is an exiled Scot, who lectures at a Tokyo university and contributes to the Japan Times
本文於 2024/09/27 23:47 修改第 1 次
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展望日本新首相下的中日關係 - Alyssa Chen
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2024/09/29 15:19 推薦0 |
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Who is Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's leader in waiting, and what will he bring to China ties?
South China Morning Post Advocate of ‘Asian Nato’ to counter China who also seeks more balanced US ties could ruffle feathers on either side of Pacific, analysts say Alyssa Chen, SCMP, 09/28/24 Shigeru Ishiba, in line to become Japan's next prime minister, is a seasoned politician who will pursue both continuity and nuance in his China policy, according to diplomatic observers. Ishiba, a former defence chief, was elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Friday. The LDP's parliamentary majority means he is expected to replace Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who announced plans to step down last month. Analysts said Ishiba was likely to maintain Japan's strategic alliances, but warned that his aims to set up an Asian equivalent of Nato to counter China and seek a more balanced partnership with the United States could ruffle feathers in both Beijing and Washington. The 67-year-old won the party leadership on his fifth attempt - which he said was driven by changes in the security environment. Ishiba has stressed the need to build a collective security framework in Asia, drawing parallels to the sense of urgency in Europe caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Following Ishiba's victory, the Chinese foreign ministry said it would not comment on the internal affairs of other countries but called for a "long-term healthy and stable development of China-Japan relations". "We hope that Japan will foster an objective and correct understanding of China, pursue a positive and rational policy towards China ... and work with China in the same direction to promote the continuous, healthy, and stable development of China-Japan relations," ministry spokesman Lin Jian said. Zhang Yilun, a research associate at the Washington-based Institute for China-America Studies, said that while Ishiba was likely to follow the established policy approach, his distinctive focus on pursuing a more "equal" partnership with the US set him apart from many of his rivals. "Instead of orienting Japan's policies solely around its strongest ally, Ishiba envisions Japan taking a more active role in regional security through the creation of an Asian Nato," Zhang said ahead of the LDP vote. "This stance could complicate Japan's position should Ishiba win the election ... relations with China are likely to further deteriorate, as Beijing would vehemently oppose the idea of an Asian Nato, viewing it as a threat to its regional influence." Meanwhile, Washington has also rejected this idea, with a top official saying that it was "too early" to talk about building an Asian Nato. China has been cautious about US efforts to build alliances within what Washington calls the "Indo-Pacific", especially with Japan. It has labelled the US moves as attempts to create a new cold war in the Asia-Pacific through the formation of various "small cliques". China-Japan ties have been marked by a long list of contentious issues - from wartime grievances and territorial disputes to Japan's export limits on semiconductors, its tilt towards US-led regional security groupings aimed at countering China, and the release of treated radioactive waste water from its crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant. Walter Hatch, professor of government and Asian politics expert at Colby College, Maine, forecast a different approach to the US under Ishiba, who would push for greater freedom from US foreign policy mandates and seek to at least "loosen Washington's grip on Tokyo". He said Washington had insisted on calling the shots in Japanese foreign policy for nearly eight decades, and Ishiba would aim to challenge this dynamic. However, this was likely to open him up to "massive resistance to change from bureaucrats on both sides of the Pacific". According to Ryo Sahashi, an associate professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, while Japan-US ties might face challenges under Ishiba, the long-time allies would potentially be able to manage any tensions that arise.
"Relations with the US are likely to be strained for some time to come. [Ishiba's] criticism of the Kishida administration's security policy is probably also a concern for the US," Sahashi said. "Nevertheless, he understands the importance of the alliance with the US and is not a nationalist, so the friction may be controllable." As for China-Japan ties, while analysts believe this could suffer more setbacks, they do not expect matters to deteriorate to crisis levels. Beijing's expanding military activities near Japan have fuelled a strong sense of crisis in Tokyo about significant security challenges. Bilateral tensions spiked again this week after China reprimanded Japan for sending a warship through the Taiwan Strait for the first time, becoming the latest US ally to do so citing "freedom of navigation" rights. Last month, Japan scrambled fighter jets after what it said was its first airspace incursion by Chinese military aircraft. "Tokyo is most likely to enhance the US-Japan alliance and security partnerships with like-minded nations to deter China's maritime expansion, while it would keep opening the channel of communication with Chinese counterparts," said Ryosuke Hanada, a security expert at Sydney's Macquarie University. Hatch noted that Ishiba's preference for engagement over confrontation with China had set him apart from other LDP leadership candidates and raised eyebrows among US policymakers and advocates of a stronger US-Japan security alliance. However, this approach should not be mistaken as being soft on Beijing, he added. Ishiba has visited Taiwan several times. During his last trip in August, he presented the idea of a coalition of democracies to Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te. Deterrence was crucial for regional peace, Ishiba told Lai, though he did not specifically mention Beijing. "He is one of the strong supporters of preserving the status quo by security cooperation with Taiwan. At the same time, he cautiously delivered his idea that any new legislative measures governing relations with Taiwan are not immediately necessary," Hanada said. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as independent. But Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons. Zhang said emerging challenges made it necessary for Japan to adopt creative approaches to policymaking, particularly beyond the narrow scope of the US-China rivalry. "For years, Japan has taken its economic cooperation with China for granted, treating it as a default without actively seeking ways to improve or diversify this relationship," he noted. Tokyo must adopt a more creative and nuanced foreign policy strategy, Zhang said, where it needed to "engage China economically in more strategic ways, while carefully managing its broader geopolitical stance". SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
本文於 2024/09/29 15:19 修改第 1 次
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