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法國國會選舉非官方結果 -- CBS
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瀏覽2,270 ｜回應11｜推薦1 |
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都鬆了口氣。
請參見：《馬克洪總統：當代馬夏維里》、《《馬克洪總統：當代馬夏維里》讀後》、和《5個等著上位的西方政客》。
French leftists coalition projected to win most seats in pivotal legislative elections
CBS, 07/07/24
An unusually high turnout of voters spelled the end of the French far right's dream of taking power in the legislature.
A coalition on the left that came together unexpectedly ahead of France's snap election won the most parliamentary seats in the vote, according to early projections. The surprising result put President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance in second and the far right dropped to third place.
With no party having the outright majority, France is likely heading to a coalition government, plunging France into political and economic turmoil.
Final results are not expected until late Sunday or early Monday in the highly volatile snap election, which was called just four weeks ago in a huge gamble for Macron.
The deeply unpopular president took a huge gamble in dissolving parliament and calling for the elections after his centrists were trounced in European elections on June 9.
The snap elections in this nuclear-armed nation will influence the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe's economic stability, and they're almost certain to undercut Macron for the remaining three years of his presidency.
It does not appear to have paid off for the deeply unpopular president, whose alliance has lost control of parliament, according to the projections. Marine Le Pen's far right greatly increased the number of seats it holds, meanwhile, but fell far short of expectations.
France now faces the prospect of weeks of political machinations to determine who will be prime minister and lead the National Assembly. And Macron faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.
French leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon called the projections an "immense relief for a majority of people in our country" and he demanded the resignation of the prime minister. Mélenchon is the most prominent of the leftist leaders who unexpectedly came together ahead of the two-round elections.
The projections, if confirmed by official counts, will spell intense uncertainty for a pillar of the European Union and its second-largest economy, with no clarity about who might partner with Macron as prime minister in governing France. He faces the prospect of leading the country alongside a prime minister opposed to most of his domestic policies.
The polling projections are projections based on the actual vote count in select constituencies.
A hung parliament with no single bloc coming close to getting the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France's two legislative chambers, would be unknown territory for modern France.
Unlike other countries in Europe that are more accustomed to coalition governments, France doesn't have a tradition of lawmakers from rival political camps coming together to form a working majority.
Voters at a Paris polling station were acutely aware of the far-reaching consequences for France and beyond.
"The individual freedoms, tolerance and respect for others is what at stake today," said Thomas Bertrand, a 45-year-old voter who works in advertising.
Racism and antisemitism have marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian cybercampaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France. The government deployed 30,000 police on voting day.
The heightened tensions come while France is celebrating a very special summer: Paris is about to host exceptionally ambitious Olympic Games, the national soccer team reached the semifinal of the Euro 2024 championship, and the Tour de France is racing around the country alongside the Olympic torch.
Reflecting the high stakes, people turned out in large numbers not normally seen for a legislative election, after decades of deepening voter apathy for such votes and, for a growing number of French people, politics in general. As of 5 p.m. local time, turnout was at 59.7%, according to France's Interior Ministry, the highest at that time in the voting day since 1981. During the first round, the nearly 67% turnout was the highest since 1997.
Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old business manager, was worried about whether the elections would produce an effective government.
"This is a concern for us," Lubin said. "Will it be a technical government or a coalition government made up of (various) political forces?"
No matter what happens, Macron's centrist camp will be forced to share power. Many of his alliances' candidates lost in the first round or withdrew, meaning it doesn't have enough people running to come anywhere close to the majority he had in 2017 when he was was first elected president, or the plurality he got in the 2022 legislative vote.
Both would be unprecedented for modern France, and make it more difficult for the European Union's No. 2 economy to make bold decisions on arming Ukraine, reforming labor laws or reducing its huge deficit. Financial markets have been jittery since Macron surprised even his closest allies in June by announcing snap elections after the National Rally won the most seats for France in European Parliament elections.
Regardless of what happens, Macron said he won't step down and will stay president until his term ends in 2027.
Many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, are frustrated with low incomes and a Paris political leadership seen as elitist and unconcerned with workers' day-to-day struggles. National Rally has connected with those voters, often by blaming immigration for France's problems, and has built up broad and deep support over the past decade.
Le Pen has softened many of the party's positions — she no longer calls for quitting NATO and the EU — to make it more electable. But the party's core far-right values remain. It wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough to merit citizenship, to curb the rights of dual citizens, and to give police more freedom to use weapons.
With the uncertain outcome looming over the high-stakes elections, Valerie Dodeman, a 55-year-old legal expert said she is pessimistic about the future of France.
"No matter what happens, I think this election will leave people disgruntled on all sides," Dodeman said.
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法國當前政治危機分析 ------ Will Marshall
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France’s right and left wing parties are surging. Can it hold the center?
Will Marshall, opinion contributor, 11/07/25
French President Emmanuel Macron took power in 2017, the same year President Trump first moved into the White House courtesy of the Electoral College. Both were insurgents but stood on opposite sides of today’s new political barricades.
Macron upended his country’s established ruling parties, conjuring up an entirely new centrist bloc as a bulwark against Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Trump took over the Republican Party, ousting traditional conservatives and turning it into a vehicle for a belligerent MAGA populism.
Both leaders are still in power, but their fates have diverged. Macron is mired in a crisis of collapsing governments and risks becoming a lame duck with two years yet to run in his second and final term. Meanwhile, the National Rally has become France’s most popular party, taking the pole position in the 2027 presidential sweepstakes.
Trump, triumphantly reelected last year despite his farcical attempt to steal the 2020 election, is riding roughshod over his political opponents — and the rule of law — with the acquiescence of a do-nothing Republican Congress.
Macron’s fall from grace — his public approval has sunk to 19 percent — raises a host of knotty questions. If he can’t do it, who can pull Europe’s second largest economy out of a protracted slump? How can the European Union take greater responsibility for Ukraine and collective security if Macron, its foremost champion of “strategic autonomy,” can’t rally domestic support for his policies?
And what lessons should Democrats and other liberal parties draw if the center crumbles and France becomes the next domino to fall to illiberal populism?
The shakeup in France began last year, when Le Pen’s anti-immigrant and Euro-skeptical party shockingly finished first in the voting for the National Assembly. Yet a leftist coalition did nearly as well, leaving Macron’s Renaissance Party without a parliamentary majority.
The election split the anti-National Rally front and realigned French politics into three blocs rather than two: A solid neo-nationalist right, an uneasy coalition of left-wing populists and center-left Socialists and Macron’s shrinking liberal center.
Since then, Macron has run through three prime ministers who could not cobble together a workable majority. The chaos peaked last month, after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu quit less than a month after taking office. Macron reappointed him four days later, but with a basketful of concessions.
To secure Socialist votes, Lecornu agreed to suspend the hardest-fought reform of Macron’s second term: a gradual rise in France’s retirement age from 62 to 64. He also promised to dial back the government’s push for big budget cuts.
Amid this retreat from fiscal reform, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Macron’s bold bid to tackle France’s deep structural problems has fizzled out.
He was just 39 when elected in 2017, France’s youngest president ever. A former Socialist, Macron invented a brand-new party dedicated to reinvigorating France’s sluggish economy, getting social welfare spending under control and liberalizing rigid labor market restrictions that make it hard for young workers to launch careers.
Eight years later, however, France’s economic and fiscal outlook remains dismal. Growth this year is expected to be less than 1 percent, while the budget deficit could reach 5.4 percent of gross domestic product, far above the European Union’s 3 percent fiscal responsibility target.
France has one of the world’s most generous welfare states. Government spending is nearly 57 percent of GDP (compared to 36 percent in the United States), the highest in Europe.
Lavish social spending took root during “les trentes glorieuses,” the three decades of robust economic growth following the end of World War II, notes Sandro Gozi, a French member of the European Parliament and secretary-general of the centrist European Democratic Party.
That expansion slowed decades ago, but France financed its social commitments with heavy taxes and borrowing. Essentially, political leaders sacrificed economic growth and social mobility on the altar of distributive equality.
To his credit, Macron tried to disrupt this tacit policy of managed economic decline. In his first term, he reformed labor markets, cut the corporate tax rate and abolished a wealth tax. While hardly draconian, these reforms met fierce resistance from students and unions. Critics assailed the president as a heartless technocrat.
The French frequently take to the streets to protest what they regard as assaults on their social rights. Macron’s 2018 fuel tax sparked the nationwide gilets jaunes (yellow vests) demonstrations outside the metropoles. Paris became an odiferous mess in 2023 when garbage collectors went on strike to protest his pension reform.
What went wrong? Many French political observers fault their embattled president for his elite polish, “Jupiterian” aloofness and lack of empathy for the struggles of ordinary workers. That’s plausible, but it’s also fair to ask whether popular addiction to state subsidies and protections petrifies politics and makes societies unduly resistant to change.
In any case, France is left with an unreformed social model it can no longer afford. That may pose an even bigger problem than a surging populist right.
Will Marshall is founder and president of Progressive Policy Institute.
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法國面臨政治和制度雙重危機 - Henry Samuel
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請參考：
French political crisis continues as Macron blames rivals for ‘sense of disorder’– as it happened
2024–2025 French political crisis
以我的知識和對法國政治的了解，當然沒有能力判斷下文陳述和分析的「如實度」。根據看了幾十年報紙的經驗來說，我相信下文有「參考看看」的價值：
1) 法國「第五共和」設計的初衷、目的、和歷史背景。
2) 造成法國目前政治和制度雙重危機的因素。
3) 法國目前政治危機無解的關鍵。
France contemplates the end of the Fifth Republic
Macronism is imploding and the entire French political system could die with it
Henry Samuel, 10/13/25
France, to borrow the words of Alain Duhamel, the veteran political observer, “has gone beyond a political crisis”.
It is now flirting with regime change.
The tailor-made system that Charles de Gaulle built in 1958 to save the country from the chaos of 22 governments in 12 years established one of the most powerful presidencies in the Western world.
It is now in disarray, and Emmanuel Macron, the president, stands at the centre of a drama of his own making that some say could yet end the Fifth Republic.
Even by France’s theatrical standards, it has been an extraordinary week.
On Friday night, Mr Macron stunned Paris by re-appointing Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister – just four days after Mr Lecornu had resigned, with his first government collapsing in record time.
Mr Lecornu, a 39-year-old self-styled “monk-soldier”, now faces the Herculean task of drafting an austerity budget and forming a cabinet acceptable to a parliament that wants him gone. His first government lasted 27 days; his second may not last a week.
Meanwhile, France’s debt is climbing and Brussels is demanding cuts. Failure to pass a budget on Monday would run the risk of France losing the dwindling faith of its international creditors and European partners.
Opposition leaders on the Right called the Lecornu re-appointment a “bad joke”. The Left said it would topple the government unless it tore up the pension reforms on which Mr Macron pinned his legacy.
Even Mr Lecornu himself had doubts. He told La Tribune Dimanche he was ready to resign (again) if he was unable to coax support from parties that despise one another and their crepuscular head of state.
Thierry Beaudet, president of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council – and once tipped for prime minister himself – said what millions of French people were thinking.
“This situation is totally incomprehensible,” he told Franceinfo. “From the point of view of our fellow citizens, it reinforces the idea that the political class lives in a world of its own.”
Across the country, that phrase – “a world of its own” – sums up the mood. A weary nation, facing budget cuts, rising debt and political paralysis, is watching the Paris elite chase its own tail.
Beyond the theatre lies a deeper structural breakdown.
“France is trapped between two systems,” said Mr Duhamel, who has chronicled every president since de Gaulle. “We have a president who behaves like a monarch but depends on a parliament he does not control. The two halves of the machine are pulling in opposite directions.”
請至原網頁觀看馬克洪任內法國國債歷年累積統計圖
For decades, the French presidency has relied on what political scientists call the fait majoritaire – the automatic parliamentary majority that traditionally followed a newly elected head of state.
That era is over.
Since Mr Macron lost his absolute majority in 2022, France has entered what historian Nicolas Roussellier calls “an age of tri-polarisation”.
Three irreconcilable blocs – a socialist and environmentalist Left, a pro-European liberal centre, and a sovereigntist far-Right – now dominate the National Assembly. None can command a majority.
As a result, asserted Mr Duhamel: “France has now moved beyond a political crisis. I think it’s a regime crisis.”
Even loyal centrists whisper the same fear: that the Fifth Republic, born amid the Algerian war and designed to end chronic instability, no longer fits a fragmented nation.
While de Gaulle was a wartime hero, a wily political operator who could unite the opposition against the Cold War threat, Mr Macron, said Mr Duhamel, is by comparison “a virgin” with no training in domestic politics and whose Jupiterian style – centralising, aloof, disdainful of party horse-trading – has only deepened the crisis.
“Virginity is bad for a president,” he said.
Meanwhile, the country is running out of patience. “The French are always dissatisfied. And now they are more than dissatisfied. They are furious.”
請至原網頁觀看馬克洪任內歷年被人民認可統計圖
The fury has political consequences; if Mr Macron dissolves parliament to break the deadlock, “the winner of the elections will be, in any case… the National Rally”, Mr Duhamel said.
Polls suggest they could clinch almost enough seats for a majority.
“And then we will enter into chaos because the National Rally does not simply want a change of government, it wants a change in society,” added Mr Duhamel.
Henri Guaino, the Gaullist thinker and former adviser to Nicolas Sarkozy, fears that Mr Macron’s serial manoeuvres – dissolutions, reshuffles, procedural tricks – are eroding the sacred aura of the presidency itself.
“The stubborn and irresponsible desacralisation of the presidential office is creating a vacuum,” Mr Guaino warned. That void could spark a risky “quest for a providential man”.
That sentence chills French ears. The “providential man” is an old French ghost – Napoleon, Pétain, de Gaulle – the strong figure who emerges when parliamentary democracy collapses.
“France has been lucky with its saviours, with the exception of Pétain in 1940. Germany and Russia have been less fortunate. Who knows who we will end up with if it comes to that,” Mr Guaino told Le Figaro.
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a rising figure in Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, already paints Mr Macron as the last emperor of a doomed regime.
The president who once likened himself to Jupiter, he scoffed on Sunday, has “become Nero – the emperor who strutted while Rome burned”.
Macronism, the promise of technocratic modernity and centrist renewal, has collapsed under the weight of its contradictions. When he swept to power in 2017, Mr Macron broke the old Left-Right duopoly and promised to govern “beyond the parties”.
Eight years later, that very disruption has destroyed the foundations of governance. The collapse of the fait majoritaire is, as Mr Baranger put it, “the price of Macron’s own revolution”.
“We are living through the final throes of Macronism,” declared Le Figaro’s Louis Hausalter. The new prime minister’s reappointment, he said, is not so much an act of renewal as “a desperate effort to delay the inevitable” – fresh elections or Mr Macron’s early exit.
Against this backdrop, Mr Lecornu’s mission – to “restore the conditions for governing” – may be noble, but few think he can succeed. The parliamentary arithmetic makes it almost impossible.
If dissolution comes, so might a landslide for the radical Right and with it, as Mr Duhamel warned, “complete disruption of the regime and probably of society as well”.
In 1969, de Gaulle, facing the rejection of constitutional reform in a referendum, chose to resign that evening. Mr Macron has vowed to serve out his full term, yet the structures he relies on are failing him.
A presidency without authority, a legislature without coherence, parties without internal discipline. The combination is close to lethal for any regime.
Even so, Mr Duhamel advised against Mr Macron bowing out before the end of his term in 2027. If he did, he warned, it would set a dangerous precedent that would likely unseat future presidents whenever the volcanic electorate next revolts.
Julian Jackson – the British author of A Certain Idea of France, The Life of Charles de Gaulle – disagreed that the Fifth Republic was on its last legs, as it was far more “flexible” than some suggest, having been able to accommodate cohabitations between a president and a rival government run by an opposing political force.
“Constitutions are not perfect. And I find that this constitution, which is unstable and strange, works and can still work,” he told C Politique on France 5.
But he warned that Mr Macron “risks turning what is a political crisis into a crisis of the regime” if he continued to seek to keep hold of all the levers of power without a parliamentary majority.
For Mr Guaino, it would be the tragic finale to a cycle of political decadence stretching back decades. “Unfortunately, while good leaders are wasted in bad institutions,” he said, “bad leaders waste good institutions.”
De Gaulle’s constitution, he insisted, was the “most accomplished attempt in two centuries to synthesise the French people’s monarchical superego, their republican aspirations, parliamentary democracy and direct democracy”.
Now, by twisting those institutions to impose policies “that most citizens do not want, we end up making them hated by the citizens, who hold them responsible for all the misfortunes that befall society”.
Mr Guaino sees no statesmen on the horizon. Just mediocre “politicians”. “But give them all the power and disaster is certain,” he warned.
On Sunday, Mr Lecornu named a new cabinet line-up, reappointing Roland Lescure, a close ally of Mr Macron, as finance minister. Later in the week he will unveil his budget.
Either he passes it – or the government falls, and perhaps the regime with it. The Fifth Republic was once born out of a coup and a crisis. It may yet die of exhaustion.
And if Mr Macron is indeed, as his critics say, more Nero than Jupiter, the fire he faces is not just political. It is the slow, constitutional burn of a republic running out of faith in itself.
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法國新政府又倒台--Elizabeth Pineau等
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France's Macron tasks his outgoing PM with holding last-ditch talks to end crisis
Elizabeth Pineau/Michel Rose/Ingrid Melander, 10/07/25
Summary
* Macron gives Lecornu until Wednesday for further talks
* France has had five prime ministers in 21 months
* Unexpected move marks major deepening of political crisis
* Opposition calls for snap elections
PARIS, Oct 6 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday tasked his outgoing prime minister, who had resigned earlier in the day, to hold last-ditch talks with other political parties to try to chart a path out of the crisis.
Sebastien Lecornu had tendered his government's resignation only hours after announcing his cabinet line-up, making it the shortest-lived administration in modern French history and deepening the country's political crisis.
It was not immediately clear what Lecornu's task would entail. France's constitution allows Macron to reappoint Lecornu as prime minister, should he wish.
Macron gave Lecornu - who will hold meetings with political parties on Tuesday morning - 48 hours.
"The president has entrusted Mr Sebastien Lecornu, the outgoing Prime Minister in charge of day-to-day affairs, with the responsibility of conducting final negotiations by Wednesday evening to define a platform for action and stability for the country," the Elysee Palace said in a statement.
FRACTIOUS PARLIAMENT
Lecornu said he had accepted the president's request. His shock resignation announcement earlier drove stocks and the euro sharply lower.
Macron's options are narrowing. He could name a new prime minister. A figure from within his own camp appears unlikely, and until now he has been unwilling to name a leftist, as the left wants to dilute his hard-won pension reform and tax the rich, whilst his more right-leaning premiers have failed to find broad backing.
He could also choose to dissolve parliament and call snap elections, or resign.
In past months, Macron, whose mandate runs until May 2027, has repeatedly ruled out stepping down or calling elections as France has sunk deeper into crisis, most recently over trying to find support for a 2026 budget.
SNAP ELECTIONS ON THE HORIZON?
Lecornu resigned after allies and foes alike immediately threatened to topple his new government.
Far-right and hard-left parties immediately zeroed in on Macron, urging him to call new snap parliamentary elections or quit.
"This joke has gone on long enough, the farce must end," far-right National Rally chief Marine Le Pen said.
Mathilde Panot, of the hard-left France Unbowed, said: "The countdown has begun. Macron must go."
However, the Socialists said their preference was to avoid a snap election or a presidential resignation, and instead have Macron name a left-wing prime minister.
NEW CABINET LINE-UP ANGERED OPPONENTS
On the streets of Paris, many were shocked at the worsening instability.
"I've never seen this," said 79-year-old pensioner Gerard Duseteu. "I’m almost ashamed, even, to be French."
Some said fresh elections seemed like the only option. "We cannot continue like this," said 20-year-old political sciences student Marius Loyer.
Three-quarters of French people believe Lecornu was right to resign, while almost half blame Macron for France's turmoil, according to an Elabe poll for BFM TV on Monday.
A relative majority believe that either dissolving parliament or Macron stepping down would break the stalemate.
Two further polls from last month show that in the event of snap parliamentary elections, the RN would emerge the dominant bloc in a parliament still divided into three blocs, with none holding a majority.
FRENCH STOCKS AND EURO FALL
Paris' $3 trillion CAC 40 (.FCHI), opens new tab dropped more than 1.3% on Monday, making it the worst-performing index in Europe. The euro, which has weathered much of France's political turmoil in the last year, slid 0.2% on the day to $1.172.
Lecornu's two predecessors were brought down by parliament over efforts to rein in France's public spending at a time when ratings agencies and investors are watching closely.
France's debt has risen to 113.9% of gross domestic product, while the deficit was nearly double the European Union's 3% limit last year.
BIGGEST CRISIS IN FRANCE'S MODERN POLITICAL HISTORY
France has rarely suffered a political crisis so deep since the creation in 1958 of the Fifth Republic, the current system of government.
The 1958 constitution was designed to ensure stable governance by creating a powerful and highly centralised president endowed with a strong majority in parliament.
Instead, Macron - who in his ascent to power in 2017 reshaped the political landscape - has found himself struggling with a fragmented parliament.
France is not used to building coalitions and finding consensus.
Reporting by Elizabeth Pineau, Benoit Van Overstraeten, Michel Rose, Sudip Kar-Gupta, Inti Landauro, Alessandro Parodi, Richard Lough, Johnny Cotton, Amanda Cooper, Dominique Vidalon; Writing by Ingrid Melander; Editing by Gareth Jones, Sharon Singleton, Ros Russell
Michel Rose reports on French politics and diplomacy, having covered President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee since 2017 and the rise of the far right under Marine Le Pen. He also writes about power dynamics in the EU. He previously covered macro-economics and energy. Worked at the Milan, Italy bureau of Reuters during the euro zone debt crisis and at the London headquarters. Michel is a graduate of the London School of Economics and the Sorbonne, and is interested in mental health and social diversity issues.
The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab
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馬克洪任命法國新總理 ------ Michel Rose
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請參考：France is the new Italy
France's Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime minister
Michel Rose, 09/10/25
Summary
* Macron names defence minister Lecornu as prime minister
* Lecornu, 39, is a loyalist and signals continuity
* Choice could alienate Socialists, makes Lecornu reliant on RN
PARIS, Sept 9 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron named loyalist Sebastien Lecornu, a one-time conservative protege who rallied behind his 2017 presidential run, as prime minister on Tuesday, defying expectations he might tack towards the left.
The choice of Lecornu, 39, indicates Macron's determination to press on with a minority government that will not rip up his pro-business reform agenda, under which taxes on business and the wealthy have been cut and the retirement age raised.
However, in an unusual move in French politics, Macron's office said the president had asked Lecornu to hold talks with all political forces in parliament to find compromises on the budget and other policies before naming his cabinet.
"The President of the Republic has entrusted me with the task of building a government with a clear direction: the defense of our independence and our power, the service of the French people, and political and institutional stability," Lecornu posted on X. "I wish to thank him for the confidence he has shown me by appointing me Prime Minister."
Lecornu will become Macron's fifth prime minister in less than two years after parliament, deeply split between three opposing ideological camps, ousted Francois Bayrou on Monday over his plans to tame the country's ballooning debt.
The choice by the deeply unpopular Macron to appoint a loyalist risks appearing tone-deaf and inflaming popular discontent at a time when polls suggest voters are losing faith with France's dysfunctional politics.
The news of his appointment was greeted with derision by leftist parties who called for voters to express their disdain in nationwide "Block Everything" protests on Wednesday.
The hard-left France Unbowed party said it would file a motion of no confidence against Lecornu, but it appears unlikely to succeed after the far-right National Rally (RN) party President Jordan Bardella signalled tentative willingness to work with Lecornu on the budget - for now.
That would leave Lecornu and his government reliant on the whims of the RN, which has been instrumental in bringing down both Bayrou and his predecessor Michel Barnier.
"We will judge - without illusion - the new Prime Minister on his merits, on his actions, on his policies for providing France with a budget, and this in light of our red lines," Bardella posted on X.
The RN has said it will not tolerate tax increases on hard-working people. It also wants to crack down on immigration costs, high spending by civil servants, and France's contribution to the European Union.
Lecornu has at times had the ear of RN leader Marine Le Pen and Bardella, with whom he had a secret dinner last year.
BUDGET IN FOCUS
Lecornu's immediate priority will be to forge consensus on a budget for 2026, a task that proved the undoing of Bayrou who had pushed for aggressive spending cuts to rein in a deficit standing at nearly double the EU ceiling of 3% of GDP.
The political upheaval this week lays bare deepening turmoil in France that is weakening the euro zone's second-biggest economy as it sinks deeper into a debt quagmire.
Lecornu most recently served as Macron's defence minister, overseeing an increase in defence spending and helping shape European thinking on security guarantees for Ukraine in the event a peace deal with Russia is brokered.
Lecornu entered politics canvassing for former President Nicolas Sarkozy when he was 16. He became mayor of a small town in Normandy when he turned 18 and then former President Nicolas Sarkozy's youngest government adviser at the age of 22.
He left the conservative Les Republicains party to join Macron's centrist political movement when the president was first elected in 2017. Five years later, he ran Macron's re-election campaign.
By naming a minister from his own camp with a conservative background, Macron appears to have decided to preserve his economic legacy at all cost.
Socialists had pledged to reverse some of his flagship pro-business policies, including the scrapping of a wealth tax and a raised retirement age, planks the president considers essential to making France attractive to investors.
Reporting by Michel Rose; additional reporting by Elizabeth Pineau and Gabriel Stargardter; editing by GV De Clercq and Richard Chang
Michel Rose reports on French politics and diplomacy, having covered President Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee since 2017 and the rise of the far right under Marine Le Pen. He also writes about power dynamics in the EU. He previously covered macro-economics and energy. Worked at the Milan, Italy bureau of Reuters during the euro zone debt crisis and at the London headquarters. Michel is a graduate of the London School of Economics and the Sorbonne, and is interested in mental health and social diversity issues.
The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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馬克洪任命法國新總理 –---- A. Breeden/C. Porter
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Emmanuel Macron Appoints Key Ally as France’s New Prime Minister
François Bayrou, a veteran centrist politician, is the fourth prime minister in a year, a record for France.
Aurelien Breeden and Catherine Porter, 12/13/24
President Emmanuel Macron on Friday tapped François Bayrou, a veteran centrist politician and one of his top allies, as the new prime minister, a move that few expect would stabilize France’s roiling politics.
Mr. Bayrou becomes the country’s fourth prime minister this year — an ominous record. The task ahead is immense: He must now form a cabinet capable of shepherding bills through a fractured, cantankerous lower house of Parliament that ousted his predecessor last week.
Most urgently, he will have to finalize an emergency budget to avoid a shutdown of essential state services before the new year as France wrestles with ballooning debt and a large budget deficit.
Mr. Macron has said he wants a broad cross-section of parties, excluding extremes on the right and left, to work together in the country’s interest. But his pick suggested a reluctance to stray too far from his agenda — despite his party’s defeat in snap elections this summer — and will do little to quell fury from his opponents.
“I am fully aware of the Himalaya of difficulties that lie before us,” Mr. Bayrou said in a speech before taking office. But he said he would strive to achieve a “necessary reconciliation” of France’s divided society.
Mr. Bayrou, 73, is a fixture of French politics — a former lawmaker and three-time presidential candidate who was first elected to local office four decades ago. He is the longtime mayor of Pau, in southwestern France, and he was education minister in the 1990s.
He is the founder and leader of the Mouvement Démocrate, or MoDem, a centrist party that is part of a coalition alongside Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party.
As a politician who battled to create an independent middle party, Mr. Bayrou helped pave the way for Mr. Macron’s first-term victory in 2017, bowing out of the race and endorsing Mr. Macron instead. Since then, Mr. Bayrou has played the role of mentor — an ally, but not an indebted one.
“He won’t be a servant of Macron,” said Vincent Martigny, a political science professor at the University of Nice, Côte d’Azur, adding that at a time of great uncertainty, Mr. Bayrou could seem “a reassuring choice for many people.”
“He knows the right and the left, he’s talked to both sides forever,” Mr. Martigny added, comparing Mr. Bayrou to President Biden. “People will pick up the phone for him.”
His weakness, however, is that “he will be held responsible for everything that Macron has done till now,” Mr. Martigny said.
Mr. Macron did not need parliamentary approval to appoint Mr. Bayrou. But to survive, the new prime minister must avoid a no-confidence motion in the lower house, which could be supported by the left and the far right. That unusual pairing brought down the previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, last week.
France’s nationalist, anti-immigrant far-right National Rally party, which had accused Mr. Barnier’s budget of hurting the purchasing power of French people, said on Friday that it was waiting to see how Mr. Bayrou would proceed.
“I’m not brandishing the threat of a no-confidence vote morning, noon and evening,” Ms. Le Pen, who heads National Rally lawmakers in the lower house, told reporters. But, she warned, “I am not renouncing that tool.”
There were varied reactions from the New Popular Front, an alliance of left-wing parties that came ahead in the snap election and is still furious Mr. Macron has not asked them to govern.
Representatives of France Unbowed, a leftist party that is one of the alliance’s main drivers, immediately rejected Mr. Bayrou as an extension of Mr. Macron and his pro-business agenda.
“The country has two clear choices: continuing ill-fated policies with François Bayrou, or making a clean break,” Mathilde Panot, a top France Unbowed lawmaker, wrote on X as she called for a no-confidence vote against him.
Other members of the left-wing alliance were more measured. Socialist and Communist leaders criticized the appointment of a major Macron ally but said they were waiting to see whether Mr. Bayrou would compromise with other parties.
In particular, they will insist that he refrain from pushing bills through without a final vote, as Mr. Barnier did this month over the budget, setting in motion the no-confidence vote that made him the shortest-tenured prime minister in modern French history.
Some of Mr. Macron’s opponents have called for his resignation, placing the blame for the political deadlock on his decision to call the snap elections in the summer.
Mr. Macron has rebuffed those calls. But the repeated delays in appointing Mr. Bayrou reflected the complicated political equation he faces. No party or bloc has a majority in the lower house, and few are inclined to work together.
On Thursday, Mr. Macron even cut short a visit to Poland to appoint the new prime minister, only to postpone a decision yet again, fueling hours of feverish speculation on news channels.
Mr. Macron’s choice, in the end, is a familiar one — both for voters and for himself.
“The more the president loses ground, the more he clings to those closest to him,” Marine Tondelier, the head of France’s Green party, told BFMTV.
Rémi Lefebvre, a political science professor at the University of Lille, said Mr. Bayrou could claim strong support from only about 160 centrist lawmakers, just a little more than a quarter in the 577-seat lower house.
Most of the left sees him as too right wing, and some on the right see him as too moderate — or even as a traitor to a longtime partnership between conservative and centrist parties, especially after he voted for a Socialist candidate in 2012.
“This government is even more fragile than the preceding one,” Mr. Lefebvre said, adding that Mr. Macron’s pick showed he was adrift.
“He doesn’t accept that he lost power, but at the same time, he has lost,” he said. “So we are all stuck in this contradiction.”
Mr. Bayrou’s predecessor was unable to pass a budget — the left and far right had railed against proposals to save $60 billion through a mix of budget cuts and tax increases — and his government’s first order of business will be to pass the emergency finance bill.
That bill is designed to avoid a state shutdown on Jan. 1, allowing the government to collect taxes at their current level and to borrow money on financial markets.
Civil servants would be paid and state institutions would continue to function, but no investments could be made and little would be done to address the country’s troubled finances.
Parties across the spectrum have suggested that they would support the emergency bill to prevent a calamitous budget crunch.
Still, Mr. Bayrou will face strong political headwinds next year when he tries to push through an actual budget and other bills.
“I think he has a chance of not being censured for six months,” Mr. Martigny, the analyst, said. “But I’d be surprised if his government lasts more than a year.”
Ségolène Le Stradic contributed reporting.
Aurelien Breeden is a reporter for The Times in Paris, covering news from France. More about Aurelien Breeden
Catherine Porter is an international reporter for The Times, covering France. She is based in Paris. More about Catherine Porter
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法國政府倒台 --– R. Picheta/J. Ataman
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馬克洪這個總統位置看來是坐到頭了。
French lawmakers vote to oust prime minister, plunging country into chaos
Rob Picheta and Joseph Ataman, CNN, 12/04/24
Paris CNN — French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has been forced to resign just three months into his term, after lawmakers on the left and the right united to support a no-confidence motion and plunge the country into deeper political instability.
A total of 331 out of 577 lawmakers voted against Barnier’s fragile government, seizing their opportunity to topple the veteran politician – and renowned negotiator – after his attempt to ram through part of his government’s annual budget on Monday.
His is the first French government to be defeated in a no-confidence motion since 1962, and Barnier is now set to become France’s shortest-serving prime minister in history.
Barnier’s cabinet is now expected to serve in a caretaker capacity until French President Emmanuel Macron names new leadership.
But that will prove a delicate task, with the increasingly vulnerable president forced to appease lawmakers on both extremes of French politics.
Macron had appointed Barnier to lead a minority government after a snap election, called by the president in the summer, split France’s parliament into three factions, each well short of a majority.
The situation had immediately appeared untenable, and it collapsed at the first major hurdle on Monday, when Barnier was forced to use a constitutional mechanism that bypassed a vote in the legislature on his 2025 budget.
That allowed rival lawmakers on the left, who had long vowed to bring him down, to call a confidence motion in response, and the far-right National Rally supported the motion to see it through on Wednesday. The far right had also called a similar motion.
Pleading his case during Wednesday’s debate in the National Assembly, Barnier told lawmakers he was “not afraid,” but warned that removing him would make “everything more difficult.”
But he was forced to watch as lawmaker after lawmaker called for his ouster.
Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally, said during the debate that Barnier’s “stubborn adherence to dogma and doctrine prevented him from making the slightest concession, which would have avoided this outcome.”
In the day before the vote, Barnier accused the far right of political blackmail, saying that they had agreed to his concessions on electricity tax hikes and medical aid for undocumented people before demanding more.
The far-right leader has been the chief antagonist throughout the Macron era, challenging him in two presidential elections and now dispatching the prime minister he handpicked to settle a simmering crisis.
She placed the blame for the fall of Barnier’s government squarely on Macron’s shoulders.
“He’s the one most responsible for the current situation,” she said following the vote. Macron “will assume his responsibilities, he will do what his reason and his conscience dictate to him,” she said in an interview with French broadcaster TF1.
Macron will address the French nation at 8 p.m. on Thursday evening, the Elysee Palace announced.
Pressure on Macron intensifies
France is now hurtling towards the end of a remarkably volatile year without a prime minister or a budget. Macron is required to pick a new prime minister, but it is difficult to envisage a candidate who would expect the support of both the leftists and the far-right.
A budget must also be passed before a December 21 deadline; if that deadline is missed, the government could still legislate a “fiscal continuity law,” which would avoid a shutdown by allowing the government to collect taxes and pay salaries, with spending capped at 2024 levels, according to the S&P Global Ratings credit rating agency.
A further snap election is not possible because the current parliament is required to sit until June, one year after the last vote.
Instead, Macron is set to face intensifying calls for his resignation – a demand that lawmakers such as Le Pen may seek to make an ultimatum in return for supporting a prime ministerial candidate.
Macron is increasingly unpopular after his remarkable gambit following the European elections in June, when he responded to continent-wide gains for the far-right by calling early legislative elections in France.
The murky results of that nationwide poll saw parties to the left and right squeeze Macron’s centrist bloc, with all three falling well short of a parliamentary majority.
Macron is halfway through his second and final term as president, but the results of the snap election have severely complicated the final stages of his time in power and diminished his authority at home and abroad.
Barnier’s financing bill, which sparked his downfall, includes €60 billion ($63 billion) worth of tax hikes and spending cuts aimed at bringing the country’s budget deficit down to 5% next year, according to the government’s calculations. Some of the measures are hugely unpopular with opposition parties, such as delaying matching pension increases to inflation.
“At last, the Barnier government has fallen, as has his violent budget, as we knew that it would, for a very simple reason: It was a provocation of French voters,” said Mathilde Panot, president of the LFI-NFP left-wing bloc that had put forward the motion, immediately following the vote.
On Monday, worries about the impact of the political maelstrom on France’s public finances briefly pushed the government’s borrowing costs above those of Greece.
France’s government debt is approaching 111% of gross domestic product (GDP) – a level unmatched since World War II, according to S&P Global Ratings – partly as the state spent big to cushion the economy from the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Lauren Kent and Hanna Ziady contributed reporting.
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法國新內閣組成 - FRANCE 24
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最近沒怎麼注意國際動態，這篇報導已經是舊聞了。如果新內閣掌握的國會席次只在多數邊緣，法國政局可能會「義大利化」。
Macron appoints new government in shift to right after weeks of uncertainty
The French presidential palace unveiled a long-awaited new government Saturday dominated by conservatives and centrists. It came more than two months after elections that produced a hung parliament and deepened political divisions as France grapples with growing financial and diplomatic challenges.
FRANCE 24, 09/21/24
French President Emmanuel Macron named a new government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier Saturday, marked by a shift to the right 11 weeks after an inconclusive parliamentary election.
The first major task for Barnier, appointed just over two weeks ago, will be to submit a 2025 budget plan addressing France's financial situation, which the prime minister this week called "very serious".
Conservative Barnier is best known internationally for leading the European Union's Brexit negotiations with the UK.
More recently, he has had the difficult job of submitting a cabinet for Macron's approval that has the best chance of surviving a no-confidence motion in parliament.
Tough talks on the distribution of the 39 cabinet posts continued right up to Saturday's official announcement, insiders said, with moments of high tension between the president and his prime minister.
Opposition politicians from the left have already announced they will challenge his government with a confidence motion.
In the July election, a left-wing bloc called the New Popular Front (NFP) won the most parliamentary seats of any political bloc, but not enough for an overall majority.
Macron argued that the left would be unable to muster enough support to form a government that would not immediately be brought down in parliament.
He turned instead to Barnier to lead a government drawing mostly on parliamentary support from Macron's allies, as well as from the conservative Republicans (LR) and the centrists groups.
'Government of the general election losers'
Macron was counting too, on a neutral stance from the far right – but the leader of the National Rally (RN) Jordan Bardella was quick to condemn the composition of the new government.
It marked "a return to Macronism" and so had "no future whatsoever", he said Saturday.
At the other end of the political spectrum, far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon called the new lineup "a government of the general election losers".
France, he said, should "get rid" of the government "as soon as possible", while his party threatened to "increase popular pressure" on the government.
Socialist party chairman Oliver Faure dismissed Barnier's cabinet as "a reactionary government that gives democracy the finger".
Among the new faces in key cabinet posts are Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, a centrist, while conservative Bruno Retailleau takes over at the interior ministry.
His portfolio covers immigration and his right-wing credentials have created unease even in Macron's own camp.
Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu, a close Macron ally, has kept his job.
The difficult job of submitting a budget plan to parliament next month falls to 33-year-old Antoine Armand, the new finance minister. He has previously served as head of parliament's economic affairs commission.
The only left-of-centre politician is a little-known former Socialist Didier Migaud who was named justice minister.
Street protests
Even before the announcement, thousands of people with left-leaning sympathies took to the streets in Paris, the southern port city of Marseille and elsewhere on Saturday to protest.
They were objecting to a cabinet they say does not reflect the outcome of the parliamentary election. The new government has nobody from inside the NFP bloc.
Barnier is to address parliament with a key policy speech on October 1st.
He then has the urgent task of submitting a budget plan to the National Assembly aimed at controlling France's rising budget deficit and debt mountain – the first major test of his administration.
France was placed on a formal procedure for violating European Union budgetary rules before Barnier was picked as head of government.
France's public-sector deficit is projected to reach around 5.6 percent of GDP this year and go over six percent in 2025, which compares with EU rules calling for a three-percent ceiling on deficits.
"I am discovering that the country's budgetary situation is very serious," Barnier said in a statement to AFP on Wednesday, adding that the situation required "more than just pretty statements".
The new cabinet's first meeting is scheduled for Monday afternoon.
Read more
The long political career of France's new prime minister, Michel Barnier
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法國新總理提名人 --- Henry Samuel
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請參看本欄上一篇。
下文原標題顯然誤導或偏頗。馬克洪並未拒絕法國左翼聯盟提名的總理人選；他只是決定奧運結束後再更換總理和中央官員，以維持政府運作的持續性和穩定性；這樣才能有效應付奧運期間可能發生的突發事件。
Emmanuel Macron dismisses Left candidate who vows to rip up pension reforms
Henry Samuel, 07/24/24
Emmanuel Macron has dismissed the Left’s common candidate for prime minister who critics accuse of “running Paris city’s finances into the ground”.
With no party or alliance in a position to reach an absolute majority in France’s National Assembly, Mr Macron ruled out dissolving his current caretaker cabinet run by Gabriel Attal and replacing it with a new one until after the Olympics.
In an interview on Tuesday night, the French president implored politicians to instead adopt the spirit of the Paris Games and work together to form a broad coalition able to govern.
“Of course we need to be concentrated on the Games until mid-August,” Mr Macron told broadcaster France 2.
“From then... it will be my responsibility to name a prime minister and entrust them with the task of forming a government, with the broadest backing possible,” he said.
Doubt over Lucie Castets’ ability
His comments came minutes after the Left-Green New Popular Front alliance (NFP), which has been split since it came out on top in the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7, finally came up with a consensus candidate for prime minister.
Lucie Castets, 37, a little-known economist and senior civil servant, said she had accepted the nomination “with great humility but also great conviction”, believing herself a “serious and credible candidate” for the role.
But critics instantly questioned her track record given that she is in charge of finances and purchasing for Paris’ cash-strapped Socialist-run town hall, which is steeped in almost €10 billion debt. She was also previously mayor Anne Hidalgo’s economic adviser.
Ms Castets “has the perfect profile to finish off France’s public finances”, said MP Philippe Ballard, spokesman of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. “When we see her record, we can doubt her ability to manage the country effectively.”
Conservative MP Pierre-Henri Dumont, the deputy national secretary of the Republicans party, said: “The fact the Left is proposing as government chief the director of financial affairs for Paris, a city whose debt has more than doubled in less than 10 years, is entirely consistent with the collapse of the country that they are preparing for us.”
However, Ms Hidalgo insisted: “Lucie has worked very seriously and without bankrupting the city.”
Ms Castets also hit back on Wednesday, saying she would not take lessons from the Macron government, which has presided over record debt of €3 trillion or 112 per cent of GDP.
“I am proud to have participated in the financing of very long-term projects that will improve the lives of Parisians, particularly in terms of ecology”, she told France Inter, blaming the government for cutting funding to local authorities and then blaming them for mismanagement.
“The debt of the city of Paris is in no way comparable to the debt of the French state, so it is somewhat ironic to hear lessons from the people who are responsible for the debt of the French state”, she added.
Like Mr Macron, Ms Castets is a graduate of the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, a hothouse for future top civil servants, presidents and prime ministers. After starting out in the treasury, she “worked on cracking down on tax fraud and financial crime”, according to a statement from NFP.
She said one of her priorities would be to “repeal the pension reform” to raise the official retirement age by two years to 64, which Mr Macron pushed through last year, triggering widespread protests and discontent. She also pledged to push for a “major tax reform so everyone pays their fair share”.
In the past, when the opposition has taken control of parliament, French presidents have accepted prime ministers put forward by the new majority.
However, these were generally in a position to survive a confidence vote in the chamber and avoid immediate ejection. In this case, the Left-wing alliance is at least 100 MPs short of an absolute majority and at risk of being kicked out at any time.
“The question is what majority can emerge from the Assembly so that a French government can pass reforms, pass a budget and move the country forward?” Mr Macron told France 2.
It is now up to parties to “get out of their comfort zones and work out compromises. It’s not a dirty word,” he added.
The Left accused Mr Macron of a “denial of democracy”.
He “is attempting a shameful misappropriation” of the election result, said Olivier Faure, head of the Socialist Party.
“When you call elections at the risk of causing chaos, you respect the result. Denial is the worst policy that leads to the worst kind of politics,” he added.
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法國左翼聯盟提名卡絲緹為新總理人選 -- J. BERLINGER
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從市政府財政局長飛升到總理提名人。
French left picks Parisian Lucie Castets as PM candidate after days of bickering
Castets works as a top financial officer for the city of Paris and, like President Emmanuel Macron, graduated from the elite École national d’administration.
JOSHUA BERLINGER, 07/23/24
PARIS — The alliance of leftist parties that scored a shock victory in France’s snap legislative elections earlier this month has agreed to nominate little-known Lucie Castets as its candidate to be the country’s next prime minister.
Castets, the director of financing and purchasing for the city of Paris, was put forward by the pan-left New Popular Front (NFP) coalition on Tuesday following weeks of infighting over who should lead France’s next government.
The NFP spent weeks haggling over candidates, with previously suggested names like far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon and compromise picks like Huguette Bello all being discarded.
Castets is a graduate of the same prestigious university — the Paris-based École national d’administration —as President Emmanuel Macron, but the similarities end there. The possible next PM is an activist who has spent much of her life working to defend French public services from being defunded.
Castets’ nomination comes after the NFP suffered a humiliating political setback last week when its candidate to lead the National Assembly — the fourth-highest ranking post in the French government — was beaten thanks to a surprise alliance between Macron’s party and right-wing lawmakers.
The loss showed that in a fractured parliament with no party close to a parliamentary majority, the left could face challenges in forming a government as it doesn’t have a majority.
The NFP has previously claimed that its win in June 30 and July 7 parliamentary elections gave it the right to name a prime minister and a cabinet.
The ball is now in Macron’s court.
The president had previously stated he would only appoint a prime minister backed by a “solid, necessarily plural” coalition, implicitly ruling out the prospect of the New Popular Front governing alone.
The timing of the NFP announcement puts Macron on the spot, as he is being interviewed Tuesday night on French television for the first time since the elections.
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國民聯盟為什麼贏不了這次國會選舉-John Leicester
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一般來說，各國選民都有相當水準；美國或許是個例外。只是關鍵時刻還需要候選人以大局為重；可惜那年台灣出了個宋楚瑜；今年美國有一個近於癡呆的拜登。
The far right seemed to have a lock on France's legislative elections. Here's why it didn't win
JOHN LEICESTER, 07/09/24
PARIS (AP) — Seemingly so close, and yet still so far away.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen looked to be nearer to power than ever last week after her National Rally party, strengthened by new allies, triumphed in the opening round of legislative elections. Its first place wasn't a hole-in- one but looked like an impressive position to possibly win or get close to an absolute parliamentary majority in the decisive runoff.
But what Le Pen hoped would be a watershed victory turned into another setback. Although her party won more National Assembly seats than ever, it yet again hit a wall of voters who don't believe the National Rally should govern France or has shed its links to racism, antisemitism and the country's still painful World War II past of collaboration with Nazi Germany.
“The tide is rising,” Le Pen said. “It did not rise high enough this time.”
France's ‘Republican front’ again blocks Le Pen's way
This was by no means the first time that French voters and the far-right's political rivals maneuvered strategically between voting rounds to block its path in a runoff.
The same thing happened most notably to Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in the presidential elections of 2002. The fiery ex-paratrooper, a co-founder of what was then called the National Front, which initially included Nazi-era collaborators, had multiple convictions for antisemitic hate speech, having repeatedly described the Holocaust's gas chambers as “a detail" of WWII history.
Yet he stunned France and its partners in Europe and beyond by advancing from the election's first round into the winner-takes-all runoff against Jacques Chirac. There, horrified French voters massively said, “Non!” They overwhelming rejected Le Pen, with even leftists voting to put Chirac, a conservative, in the presidential Elysee Palace.
That so-called “Republican front," the process of French voters temporarily putting their political allegiances aside solely to keep the far right from power, has worked repeatedly since. It helped defeat Marine Le Pen in two presidential runoffs, in 2017 and 2022, losing to Emmanuel Macron in both, and again blocked her party's path to hoped-for victory in the legislative runoffs this weekend.
Macron's narrower but still comfortable victory in 2022 and a breakthrough for Le Pen's by-then rebranded National Rally in follow-up legislative elections, where it won an unprecedented 89 seats, were both interpreted as signals that the “Republican front” was starting to crack and that it might just be a question of time before it gives way completely.
But it functioned with surprising effectiveness Sunday and in the week leading up to the decisive vote. A coalition of left-wing parties that banded together for these elections to counter the far-right surge and Macron's centrist alliance withdrew dozens of candidates who advanced to round two but did not look like winning.
The strategy helped concentrate votes on remaining candidates in head-to-head runoff contests against far-right opponents, contributing to defeats for hundreds of them. The National Rally and its allies won 104 runoffs — fewer than 1-in-4 of those they contested and way short of their expectations.
Their total of 143 first- and second-round victories still gives the National Rally an unprecedented presence in the 577-seat National Assembly. But it's still only the third-largest bloc, behind the leftist coalition and Macron's alliance, in the new and hung parliament where none came close to an absolute majority.
Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's 28-year-old protégé who she'd been hoping to install as prime minister, grumbled that "the alliance of dishonor” between the National Rally's rivals kept it from power.
National Rally spokesman Laurent Jacobelli spoke of “a democratic hold-up."
Pollster Brice Teinturier said the “Republican front" was “even more powerful” than had been anticipated, showing that despite Le Pen's yearslong efforts to sanitize the image of her party, it still “causes fear, worry that has mobilized people.”
“They repel more than they attract,” said French analyst François Heisbourg, who specializes in defense and security questions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"And the closer they get to the goal, the more the repelling factor weighs in."
Voters react against National Rally ‘casting errors’
The National Rally ran a polished campaign heading into the elections, toning down its platform and rhetoric and pushing social-media heavyweight Bardella to the fore.
But scrutiny of the party's candidates by French media and concerned citizens raised embarrassing questions about their suitability to potentially serve as lawmakers.
After Ludivine Daoudi qualified for round two, winning nearly 20% of the vote in her Normandy district in the first round, the National Rally announced it was withdrawing her when a photo of her wearing a Nazi officer’s cap, with a swastika, emerged on social media.
Some candidates struggled to answer elementary policy questions. French media background checks on others found that one woman once held a town employee hostage at gunpoint and that another appeared ineligible to serve as a lawmaker because he was subject to a court-ordered guardianship.
Others faced scrutiny for right-wing extremist affiliations and unsavory comments. The National Rally stuck by a candidate who'd reportedly once tweeted that “gas brought justice to the victims of the Shoah,” saying his post was taken out of context.
“We made some mistakes, we acknowledge it,” said National Rally lawmaker Bruno Clavet, who won his seat in northern France outright in round one.
"We made some casting errors, regional party officials did not do their job properly,” he said.
AP journalist Diane Jeantet in Paris contributed to this report.
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