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歐洲議會大選結果分析 -- Luke McGee
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下文提到樂朋和梅洛妮兩位女性政治領袖；請分別參看此文和此欄。
Europe’s center ground is shifting further to the right
Luke McGee, CNN, 06/09/24
CNN — Europe’s drift to the right has been a long journey that’s seen the continent’s mainstream increasingly accommodate people with Euroskeptic views that were once fringe.
The projected gains for the hard right in the European parliamentary elections may seem modest in terms of pure numbers, but they are significant.
The results represent a major challenge to the pro-Europe mainstream officials who dominate the institutions of the European Union.
The advances chalked up by far-right parties may not be unexpected, and they don’t pose an existential crisis for the EU. But they show how the Euroskeptic right could, in the coming years, tighten its grip on the direction of the union.
Over the next 24 hours, the parties of the center – projected to remain the largest bloc in the European Parliament – will likely talk of a “grand coalition” to counter the rise of the far right. And while the far right is on course to make large gains, the center parties remain ahead.
On paper, these pro-EU parties can claim victory. On numbers alone, the centrist coalition has held. The center-right European People’s Party, the center-left Socialists and Democrats, and the liberal Renew Europe are the three largest groups in the European Parliament. When you throw the pro-Europe Greens into that, the center is by far the largest block.
Even when you take into consideration gains for the hard-right European Conservative Reformers and Identity and Democracy, it still leaves the mainstream, pro-Europe center with a healthy majority in parliament.
The course of European politics, however, is not necessarily set inside the European Parliament and it’s not clear that the centrist bloc would even want to work together.
While these centrist groups are all pro-EU, they differ on all manner of policies. For those on the center right, domestic political shifts to the hard right could make working with the hard right increasingly attractive at a European level.
This might create difficulties in appointing the next European Commission – the executive branch of the EU – which sets the political direction of the bloc. The deadline for this is months away, which leaves a lot of time for horse-trading, which could see elements of the center right and hard right cooperate.
The same dynamic could play out when the parliament comes to vote on policy. Coalitions are not formal in the EU Parliament, rather, lawmakers vote on an issue-by-issue basis. It’s not implausible that the center right could vote with the left on issues like support for Ukraine, but then work with the hard right on immigration and climate policy.
It’s not just politics at the European level that will affect how these groups might work together in Brussels. The domestic politics back in member states will inevitably put pressure on how those elected to the European Parliament cooperate with their colleagues.
Of the 27 EU member states, 13 heads of government currently belong to European parties on the right. A new government is due to form in the Netherlands, which could be led by a member of ID. There are other European leaders who are not a member of any European party, but are broadly sympathetic to ideas from the right.
French President Emmanuel Macron has responded to the projected crushing loss to his far-right rival Marine Le Pen by dissolving parliament and calling elections later this month.
Le Pen has already forced Macron to move a long way to the right in France, with his government taking on increasingly anti-immigrant and anti-Islam rhetoric. In 2027, France will hold a presidential election which could sweep Le Pen to power.
Sunday’s results do not show a dramatic or sudden shift to the right, but something more nuanced and gradual – that the center ground of European politics has been shifting rightward over a number of years.
The most visible recent example of this has been the emergence of Giorgia Meloni as a major player in EU politics. In 2022, she was elected as prime minister of Italy. Her domestic party, Brothers of Italy, is the mos rightwing to be elected to government there since that of Benito Mussolini, the wartime fascist leader.
Initially, Brussels officials feared that Meloni would be a firebrand out to destroy the EU. In office, she has been an ally of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and has worked cooperatively with her counterparts on issues like Ukraine.
She has used the influence she’s gained to shift the EU’s policy positions on issues that matter to her: most notably, migration.
The high point of Euroskepticism for most casual observers was probably the Brexit vote in 2016. That was the result of years of domestic politics shifting in the UK, the center right shifting to fend off the hard right, ultimately leading to that rupture.
The difference between what happened in the UK and what is happening now is that Euroskeptics no longer want to leave the EU: they want to take it over.
Placing these provisional results in that context as we look ahead to more elections across the continent in the coming months and years, that takeover of the EU’s center looks increasingly more realistic.
European elections are rarely about the EU itself; they are 27 national elections taking place in the political context of those countries. They are often used as protest votes, where groups who would not be elected to positions of power domestically do well because voters know they will not actually be running anything.
What these results do reveal, however, is that the subtle shift to the right, dragging the center along with it, is still happening across Europe.
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這篇文章報導四位學者/意見領袖對未來歐洲政局演變的展望(本欄上一篇)；從標題看，討論焦點號稱是「誰掌握著『權力』？」
不客氣的說，除了第三位當肯先生的評論外，原文標題和其他三位的發言內容完全不相符：前兩位學者的評論明顯空洞；他們描述的不肯是「權力核心」，而是「弱勢族群」。後兩位則指出讓人憋屈、無助、悲觀、近於絕望的具體現實。
四位學者都沒有提出任何可行的解決方案；第二位和第四位的想法則在一廂情願之外，近於癡人說夢。這倒不能怪他們四位學藝不精，腦無良策；而是在「金」、「權」兩虧的情況下，即使黃興、列寧、或格瓦拉再世，恐怕也只能徒喚奈何；既說不出名堂，更拿不出辦法。
我無意鼓吹暴力(該欄2009/01/21)，但老百姓到了絕望時刻，發出「時日曷喪？予及汝皆亡」的悲鳴，甚至付諸行動、揭竿而起，應該是可以理解的。
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展望歐洲政局 -- POLITICO
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Europe’s emerging centers of power
Four thinkers present their predictions for the next new world order.
POLITICO, 12/30/24
Europe is in for a turbulent time. The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president is yet another shock, after the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine. His policies toward NATO and tariffs will cause more instability in a continent where the political and policy establishment is already staggering.
As the new power balance reasserts itself, expect new poles of influence to emerge. We asked a group of top thinkers — historians and political scientists with specialties ranging from the medieval period to the present day — to share their predictions for what those might be.
Desmond Dinan: The return of Warsaw
Desmond Dinan is a professor of public policy at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.
Poland’s emergence as an EU power center is partly due to the demise of the traditional Franco-German pillar and the increasing importance of frontline countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It also owes much to its change of government in 2023 and to Donald Tusk’s return as prime minister.
In a display of Poland’s newfound diplomatic initiative and authority, for example, last month — just a day after the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting — Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski hosted his peers from the bloc’s five biggest members and the United Kingdom, with the purpose of building support for Ukraine among Europe’s most militarily capable countries. A week later, Tusk joined a summit of the Nordic-Baltic Eight leaders, resulting in a joint statement on security cooperation and a new strategic partnership with Sweden.
Clearly, Poland’s star, ascendant in the east, is brightening the EU’s prospects at an otherwise ominous time. Sikorski in particular is a man for all seasons. And when it comes to EU-U.S. relations, he certainly hopes to be the man for the coming winter season. A true transatlanticist, he will do anything to prevent the thermometer from dipping below freezing on relations with Washington — whether in Celsius or Fahrenheit.
Having worked in Washington 20 years ago, Sikorski can draw on his many contacts to try to temper the worst instincts of the Trump 2.0. administration. Sikorski was a Euroskeptic back then, though of a kinder, gentler form than the virulent strain that’s prevalent today. He scoffed at the Lisbon Strategy and derided the treaty establishing a constitution for Europe during the ratification process. Ridiculing the latter’s bulkiness, he was known to pull a copy of the lean U.S. Constitution out of his jacket pocket, like a rabbit out of a hat. American audiences loved it.
But as his more-recent trajectory from mild Euroskeptic to a pillar of the EU establishment suggests, Sikorski is a shapeshifter — something that could also help endear him to Trump and company, who are political opportunists par excellence. Though Sikorski vied unsuccessfully to become his party’s contender for Poland’s next presidential election, it’s undeniable that he looks the part. And that alone is enough to make a good impression on the credulous American president-to-be.
Sikorski could play his old trick, just in reverse. He could distill the Treaty on the European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union down to a slim booklet. He’d have to call it something else, of course — the “EU Constitution” perhaps? Then, he could whip this out at key moments in Washington, dazzling the new administration with his cleverness and the EU’s agility, helping end the winter chill in transatlantic relations.
Eleanor Janega: The new left
Eleanor Janega is a historian and broadcaster, specializing in propaganda, apocalypticism, urbanity, sexuality and empire in the late medieval and early modern periods. She is the co-host of the hit podcast “Gone Medieval.”
It’s been a difficult year for voters on the left.
Both in the U.K. and the U.S., formerly center-left parties set about excluding left-wing activists and alienating their traditional voter base: Labour ran a high-profile campaign to drive leftists from the party and is currently boasting of plans to harden the U.K.’s borders — it now has a net approval rating of -38. In the U.S., Democrats campaigned with and promised Cabinet positions to “never-Trump” Republicans more than they spoke about issues of wealth inequality. And in both instances, with no real left to vote for, leftist voters stayed home.
Meanwhile, in France, we saw the possibility of a broad-left coalition winning elections and blocking far-right impulses, only to be stymied by French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to appoint a prime minister from the group, instead choosing the right-wing Michel Barnier who advocated for (surprise!) stricter controls on non-European immigration. (Barnier was later brought down by France’s far-right leader Marine Le Pen).
So, with traditional parties signaling a total indifference to leftist interests and a willingness to disappoint, disaffect and alienate their voters, where can those wishing for a more fair and equitable world turn to find hope and power in 2025?
One government to watch is that of Mexico, where President Claudia Sheinbaum currently commands an exceptional approval rating of 70 percent after her first 30 days in office. It’s worth noting that those polled pointed to her stances on women’s rights and the continuation of welfare programs as reasons for their approval, showing that the average person responds quite positively to hopeful messages and financial support.
Also of interest are leftist stalwarts like U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, who acknowledged the trouble with offering voters little more than a continuation of the status quo in his post-election statement. Sanders questioned whether Democrats “have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful oligarchy which has so much economic and political power.” Could this signify the beginning of a new project, highlighting a commitment to popular positions for working people? The left can hope.
Another point of hope is the burgeoning left-wing media ecology. There are far more leftist voices and publications available now compared with 2016, offering incisive analysis and opportunities for collaboration.
Mike Duncan: Trump’s best friends
Mike Duncan is a political history podcaster and author, best known for the award-winning “History of Rome” (2007–2012) and “Revolutions” podcasts.
Among the biggest beneficiaries of the electoral results in the U.S. will be the Silicon Valley oligarchs who own our global communications networks.
Elon Musk bought what was once Twitter, manipulated its algorithms and, as a result, can take some credit for helping elect Trump. Others, like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen, have used their billions to fund networks of right-wing agitprop. They will now be further empowered to push a faux-libertarian agenda bent on dismantling the regulatory state and ensuring their companies can do whatever they want, whenever they want, without oversight.
Their fundamental goal is expanding personal wealth, but in pursuing that aim they will warp global discourse to reflect their own worldviews, while facing very little pushback from the political powers in Washington.
Meanwhile, one of the biggest political issues over the past decade has been global migration, and Trump has made it crystal clear that he wouldn’t just prevent new immigrants from entering the U.S. but would also deport millions of people already there. To accomplish this goal he will turn to anti-immigrant zealot Stephen Miller — the architect of Trump’s cruelest border policies during his first term. Miller will partner with new border czar Tom Homan, promising to round up and deport millions of longtime residents no matter the human or financial cost. Even if Trump’s domestic agenda is stymied on other fronts, Miller and Homan will have free rein to pursue the most brutal policies imaginable.
Finally, on the global stage, Trump’s victory will also massively empower two leaders currently engaged in military conflicts. Russian President Vladimir Putin will rejoice at his return to the White House. Expect Trump to dial back assistance to Ukraine and adopt Putin’s framing of the war: that it is the reasonable pursuit of Russia’s national interest. In a conflict that has gone back and forth, 2025 could very easily mark a decisive turning point in Putin’s favor.
The other leader empowered by Trump’s victory is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. U.S. President Joe Biden did very little to check Israel’s genocidal assault on Gaza, but with Trump in the White House, Netanyahu will now feel free to take the conflict to its logical conclusion: clearing Gaza of all Palestinians and annexing the territory.
Caterina Froio: Institutions of higher learning
Caterina Froio is an associate professor of political science at Sciences Po. Her research specializes in far-right politics, illiberalism, digital media and political participation.
Far from being isolated ivory towers, academic institutions are evolving into powerful catalysts for social change. In 2025, universities will be central to political conflict — both shaping and being shaped by broader societal transformations.
Today, student movements are creating transnational connections to coordinate social struggles under increasingly authoritarian regimes. Their causes include climate action and reproductive, civil and human rights. Their documentation of human rights violations, particularly in regions like Gaza, has gained global attention, reaching as far as the International Criminal Court.
However, this movement faces significant backlash. Far-right campaigns are systematically targeting universities, attempting to delegitimize research that challenges uncomfortable historical and contemporary realities. Fields such as climate science, gender studies, critical race theory and technological ethics are particularly vulnerable.
The resistance and survival of scholars in these fields will be key. Climate research, for instance, is at the front line of challenging political and corporate narratives that prioritize short-term economic interests over planetary survival. Scholars and students are not merely documenting environmental degradation; they’re developing innovative solutions for sustainable development and climate adaptation.
AI research, meanwhile, has emerged as a critical domain in which universities examine the profound moral and practical challenges of technological development. Researchers are creating frameworks for responsible innovation that prioritize human rights, privacy and equitable access — often in direct opposition to powerful private actors like Elon Musk.
This presents the leadership of universities with an unprecedented moral dilemma. Administrators can no longer remain neutral in the escalating “culture wars” between competing societal values. And their decisions — whether to protect academic freedom and support vulnerable researchers, or to capitulate — will have profound implications for democratic stability.
As global power centers recalibrate and authoritarian tendencies resurge, universities offer a crucial counterweight to democratic erosion. They are spaces where we imagine alternative futures, analyze systemic injustices, and conceptualize collective resistance. The transformation is fundamental: Universities are no longer just educational institutions, they are pivotal actors in the global struggle for social justice, opposing existing power structures and offering critical perspectives that challenge dominant narratives.
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歐洲議會大選結果分析2 ----- Eddy Wax
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這篇分析的時間較晚，對歐洲各國開票結果的掌握相當確實。分別列出前景看俏和後勢走衰的歐洲政治領袖；有其參考價值。只是法國大選還有三年，變數不小，樂朋是否能上位一圓總統夢，還很難說。
Who won, who lost and who screwed up in the EU election
The far right had a good night. Others not so much.
EDDY WAX, 06/10/24
BRUSSELS — One thing is certain after Sunday’s European Parliament election: Not everybody will be celebrating.
While the right gained in strength, greens and liberals had a rough night. French President Emmanuel Macron took such a beating he immediately dissolved the national parliament and called a new election.
Here’s POLITICO’s guide to who will be bouncing out of bed and who will be waking up to a living nightmare.
Winners
Ursula von der Leyen
The European Commission president emerged from Sunday’s vote with a possible coalition of Socialists, liberals and her own center-right European People’s Party (EPP). Together, these three groups — which supported her during her current term — are expected to have some 407 votes in the chamber.
Though she only needs 361 votes in Parliament to secure a second mandate, the possibility of defections means her victory is not yet a done deal. She will also need the support of the European Union’s national leaders in the European Council.
Still, the EPP is well-positioned to push her through. Manfred Weber, the leader of the EPP, called on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and France’s Macron to support von der Leyen for five more years. The EPP won in Germany, Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Croatia and Greece. They also picked up six seats in the Netherlands, outperforming expectations.
Giorgia Meloni
The Italian right-wing leader won the election in Italy, emerging well ahead of her rivals. That makes her, along with Poland’s Donald Tusk, one of the few leaders of a large EU country to romp home with a victory. She appears to have improved on her share of the vote compared to the 2022 election.
The far right
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally victory was the big story of the night after its strong performance impelled Macron to dissolve parliament and call a new election. Far-right parties also came first in Austria, tied for first place in the Netherlands and came in second in Germany and Romania. French firebrand Éric Zemmour’s Reconquest also scraped into Parliament.
Socialists
Well, kinda. While they didn’t exactly dazzle, Europe’s center-left parties held the line, coming in second in big countries like Spain and Italy and in a close third in France, where Raphaël Glucksmann appears to have resurrected the center-left. Don’t mention Germany, though, where Scholz’s Socialists came in a sad third, behind the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
Péter Magyar
An ally-turned-rival of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Magyar has emerged as the undisputed face of Hungary’s opposition, winning some 30 percent of the vote after throwing his hat into the ring earlier this year.
Roberta Metsola
The Maltese president of the European Parliament got her party an extra seat, having racked up over 87,000 first preferences. Maltese media reported she became the country’s most voted MEP candidate since the country joined the EU.
Losers
Emmanuel Macron
The French president was dealt a blow after his party came in a distant second, barely ahead of the Socialists he was once thought to have consigned to the political graveyard. His lead candidate Valérie Hayer will limp back to Brussels after having been repeatedly upstaged by her male allies, not least by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. According to a senior official from her Renew party, Attal even barred her from getting on the train from Paris to Brussels on Sunday night.
Olaf Scholz
The German Chancellor’s Social Democrats got crushed by the center-right Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany. With just 14 percent of the vote, the SPD received its worst result in a national election in more than a century. Scholz is facing calls from the center-right to do a Macron and call an early election.
Greens
After a strong performance in 2019, the Greens took a thumping in Germany, slipping from 21 seats to perhaps as few as 12, barely clung on in France and got zero in Portugal. Overall they lost some 20 seats in a bleak night for the climate campaigners. Putting on a brave face, one of the party’s lead candidates, Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout, said the Greens will seek to play a “constructive” role in coalition talks — that is, if von der Leyen is interested in talking to them.
Viktor Orbán
The Hungarian nationalist leader did worse than expected, after facing a fierce challenge from Magyar. While his Fidesz party took 43.8 percent of the vote, it was its worst-ever result in a European Parliament election. Still, Brussels will be watching whether he maneuvers his MEPs into the nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists group, giving another boost to Meloni.
Matteo Salvini
The Italian deputy prime minister’s League party, which received 34 percent of the vote in 2019 and currently presides over the far-right Identity and Democracy group, received less than 9 percent this time around, putting it on par with Forza Italia (which ran with the late Silvio Berlusconi’s name on the ballot). Ciao to them.
The European Parliament
They had one job and they cocked it up. A hiccup on stage by a Parliament spokesperson embarrassed the institution on its biggest night, when he read out different projected results to those being shown on the screen behind him. It prompted jeers from the journalists present with one shouting in pantomime style: “It’s behind you!”
Elisa Braün contributed reporting.
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