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歐洲議會大選結果分析 -- Luke McGee
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下文提到樂朋和梅洛妮兩位女性政治領袖；請分別參看此文和此欄。
Europe’s center ground is shifting further to the right
Luke McGee, CNN, 06/09/24
CNN — Europe’s drift to the right has been a long journey that’s seen the continent’s mainstream increasingly accommodate people with Euroskeptic views that were once fringe.
The projected gains for the hard right in the European parliamentary elections may seem modest in terms of pure numbers, but they are significant.
The results represent a major challenge to the pro-Europe mainstream officials who dominate the institutions of the European Union.
The advances chalked up by far-right parties may not be unexpected, and they don’t pose an existential crisis for the EU. But they show how the Euroskeptic right could, in the coming years, tighten its grip on the direction of the union.
Over the next 24 hours, the parties of the center – projected to remain the largest bloc in the European Parliament – will likely talk of a “grand coalition” to counter the rise of the far right. And while the far right is on course to make large gains, the center parties remain ahead.
On paper, these pro-EU parties can claim victory. On numbers alone, the centrist coalition has held. The center-right European People’s Party, the center-left Socialists and Democrats, and the liberal Renew Europe are the three largest groups in the European Parliament. When you throw the pro-Europe Greens into that, the center is by far the largest block.
Even when you take into consideration gains for the hard-right European Conservative Reformers and Identity and Democracy, it still leaves the mainstream, pro-Europe center with a healthy majority in parliament.
The course of European politics, however, is not necessarily set inside the European Parliament and it’s not clear that the centrist bloc would even want to work together.
While these centrist groups are all pro-EU, they differ on all manner of policies. For those on the center right, domestic political shifts to the hard right could make working with the hard right increasingly attractive at a European level.
This might create difficulties in appointing the next European Commission – the executive branch of the EU – which sets the political direction of the bloc. The deadline for this is months away, which leaves a lot of time for horse-trading, which could see elements of the center right and hard right cooperate.
The same dynamic could play out when the parliament comes to vote on policy. Coalitions are not formal in the EU Parliament, rather, lawmakers vote on an issue-by-issue basis. It’s not implausible that the center right could vote with the left on issues like support for Ukraine, but then work with the hard right on immigration and climate policy.
It’s not just politics at the European level that will affect how these groups might work together in Brussels. The domestic politics back in member states will inevitably put pressure on how those elected to the European Parliament cooperate with their colleagues.
Of the 27 EU member states, 13 heads of government currently belong to European parties on the right. A new government is due to form in the Netherlands, which could be led by a member of ID. There are other European leaders who are not a member of any European party, but are broadly sympathetic to ideas from the right.
French President Emmanuel Macron has responded to the projected crushing loss to his far-right rival Marine Le Pen by dissolving parliament and calling elections later this month.
Le Pen has already forced Macron to move a long way to the right in France, with his government taking on increasingly anti-immigrant and anti-Islam rhetoric. In 2027, France will hold a presidential election which could sweep Le Pen to power.
Sunday’s results do not show a dramatic or sudden shift to the right, but something more nuanced and gradual – that the center ground of European politics has been shifting rightward over a number of years.
The most visible recent example of this has been the emergence of Giorgia Meloni as a major player in EU politics. In 2022, she was elected as prime minister of Italy. Her domestic party, Brothers of Italy, is the mos rightwing to be elected to government there since that of Benito Mussolini, the wartime fascist leader.
Initially, Brussels officials feared that Meloni would be a firebrand out to destroy the EU. In office, she has been an ally of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and has worked cooperatively with her counterparts on issues like Ukraine.
She has used the influence she’s gained to shift the EU’s policy positions on issues that matter to her: most notably, migration.
The high point of Euroskepticism for most casual observers was probably the Brexit vote in 2016. That was the result of years of domestic politics shifting in the UK, the center right shifting to fend off the hard right, ultimately leading to that rupture.
The difference between what happened in the UK and what is happening now is that Euroskeptics no longer want to leave the EU: they want to take it over.
Placing these provisional results in that context as we look ahead to more elections across the continent in the coming months and years, that takeover of the EU’s center looks increasingly more realistic.
European elections are rarely about the EU itself; they are 27 national elections taking place in the political context of those countries. They are often used as protest votes, where groups who would not be elected to positions of power domestically do well because voters know they will not actually be running anything.
What these results do reveal, however, is that the subtle shift to the right, dragging the center along with it, is still happening across Europe.
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歐洲議會大選結果分析2 ----- Eddy Wax
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這篇分析的時間較晚，對歐洲各國開票結果的掌握相當確實。分別列出前景看俏和後勢走衰的歐洲政治領袖；有其參考價值。只是法國大選還有三年，變數不小，樂朋是否能上位一圓總統夢，還很難說。
Who won, who lost and who screwed up in the EU election
The far right had a good night. Others not so much.
EDDY WAX, 06/10/24
BRUSSELS — One thing is certain after Sunday’s European Parliament election: Not everybody will be celebrating.
While the right gained in strength, greens and liberals had a rough night. French President Emmanuel Macron took such a beating he immediately dissolved the national parliament and called a new election.
Here’s POLITICO’s guide to who will be bouncing out of bed and who will be waking up to a living nightmare.
Winners
Ursula von der Leyen
The European Commission president emerged from Sunday’s vote with a possible coalition of Socialists, liberals and her own center-right European People’s Party (EPP). Together, these three groups — which supported her during her current term — are expected to have some 407 votes in the chamber.
Though she only needs 361 votes in Parliament to secure a second mandate, the possibility of defections means her victory is not yet a done deal. She will also need the support of the European Union’s national leaders in the European Council.
Still, the EPP is well-positioned to push her through. Manfred Weber, the leader of the EPP, called on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and France’s Macron to support von der Leyen for five more years. The EPP won in Germany, Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Croatia and Greece. They also picked up six seats in the Netherlands, outperforming expectations.
Giorgia Meloni
The Italian right-wing leader won the election in Italy, emerging well ahead of her rivals. That makes her, along with Poland’s Donald Tusk, one of the few leaders of a large EU country to romp home with a victory. She appears to have improved on her share of the vote compared to the 2022 election.
The far right
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally victory was the big story of the night after its strong performance impelled Macron to dissolve parliament and call a new election. Far-right parties also came first in Austria, tied for first place in the Netherlands and came in second in Germany and Romania. French firebrand Éric Zemmour’s Reconquest also scraped into Parliament.
Socialists
Well, kinda. While they didn’t exactly dazzle, Europe’s center-left parties held the line, coming in second in big countries like Spain and Italy and in a close third in France, where Raphaël Glucksmann appears to have resurrected the center-left. Don’t mention Germany, though, where Scholz’s Socialists came in a sad third, behind the far-right Alternative for Germany party.
Péter Magyar
An ally-turned-rival of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Magyar has emerged as the undisputed face of Hungary’s opposition, winning some 30 percent of the vote after throwing his hat into the ring earlier this year.
Roberta Metsola
The Maltese president of the European Parliament got her party an extra seat, having racked up over 87,000 first preferences. Maltese media reported she became the country’s most voted MEP candidate since the country joined the EU.
Losers
Emmanuel Macron
The French president was dealt a blow after his party came in a distant second, barely ahead of the Socialists he was once thought to have consigned to the political graveyard. His lead candidate Valérie Hayer will limp back to Brussels after having been repeatedly upstaged by her male allies, not least by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. According to a senior official from her Renew party, Attal even barred her from getting on the train from Paris to Brussels on Sunday night.
Olaf Scholz
The German Chancellor’s Social Democrats got crushed by the center-right Christian Democrats and the far-right Alternative for Germany. With just 14 percent of the vote, the SPD received its worst result in a national election in more than a century. Scholz is facing calls from the center-right to do a Macron and call an early election.
Greens
After a strong performance in 2019, the Greens took a thumping in Germany, slipping from 21 seats to perhaps as few as 12, barely clung on in France and got zero in Portugal. Overall they lost some 20 seats in a bleak night for the climate campaigners. Putting on a brave face, one of the party’s lead candidates, Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout, said the Greens will seek to play a “constructive” role in coalition talks — that is, if von der Leyen is interested in talking to them.
Viktor Orbán
The Hungarian nationalist leader did worse than expected, after facing a fierce challenge from Magyar. While his Fidesz party took 43.8 percent of the vote, it was its worst-ever result in a European Parliament election. Still, Brussels will be watching whether he maneuvers his MEPs into the nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists group, giving another boost to Meloni.
Matteo Salvini
The Italian deputy prime minister’s League party, which received 34 percent of the vote in 2019 and currently presides over the far-right Identity and Democracy group, received less than 9 percent this time around, putting it on par with Forza Italia (which ran with the late Silvio Berlusconi’s name on the ballot). Ciao to them.
The European Parliament
They had one job and they cocked it up. A hiccup on stage by a Parliament spokesperson embarrassed the institution on its biggest night, when he read out different projected results to those being shown on the screen behind him. It prompted jeers from the journalists present with one shouting in pantomime style: “It’s behind you!”
Elisa Braün contributed reporting.
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