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2024五大外交議題-Elliot Nazar
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Top 5 Foreign Policy Issues to Watch in 2024

ELLIOT NAZAR, 01/02/24

1. A Third Lebanon War

Amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas, Israel has already had to respond to missiles coming in from Hezbollah in South Lebanon. Following the Oct. 7 massacre by Hamas, around 30,000 Israeli civilians have evacuated their homes in northern Israel, fearing that Hezbollah could unleash its rocket arsenal against the Jewish state and open a new front against Jerusalem. While the United States and its allies are doing everything to deescalate, preventing another war in Lebanon, Israel has stayed vigilant in responding to fire from its northern border.

2. Iran’s Terror-Supporting Regime

As the world continues to be fixated on the ongoing tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, U.S. officials, analysts, and national security experts are concerned that in addition to funding terror groups and proxies throughout the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran is on its way to acquiring a fully developed nuclear weapon against Israel, the U.S., and the Sunni Arab states. In 2023, despite warnings from the Biden administration and the international community, the Islamic Republic vowed it would not adhere to prior commitments to the former 2015 nuclear agreement, increasing its uranium enrichment to weapons-grade level. Despite concerns from lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Biden officials maintain hope that the administration can create some new arrangement with Iran’s nuclear program before the 2024 Presidential election.

3. Potential Invasion of Guyana

In early December, the Socialist Venezuelan government approved a “referendum” called by President Nicolás Maduro to claim sovereignty over the oil-rich area of Guyana, arguing the land was stolen when the border was created a century ago. In response to the Venezuelan government’s declaration, the U.S. Southern Command conducted flight operations within Guyana to deter Maduro and his plans for invasion. Despite facing warnings from the U.S. and the U.K., Venezuelan military officials have deployed around 6,000 troops and publicly declared that such actions will not stop until the U.K. removes its military vessels sent to Guyana. If Venezuela were to invade its oil-rich neighbor Guyana, it would likely result in the disruption of global energy markets and negatively impact U.S. interests in Latin America.

4. Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

On December 31, 2023, in his New Year’s address to the people of China, President Xi Jinping said that China’s “reunification” with Taiwan is inevitable and considers the island-based country as Beijing’s “sacred territory.” A week before his speech, Xi told U.S. President Joe Biden that Beijing would reunify Taiwan with mainland China, but the timing was undecided. Despite facing warnings from U.S. lawmakers and Western allies, the Chinese communist government has increased its military buildup in 2023, preparing its forces for a potential invasion of Taiwan in the near future. Should China engage in conventional warfare with Taiwan, experts say this could create a global conflict, given that the U.S. has vowed to support Taiwan and prevent China from taking over the island state.

5. Continuation of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, the war has gone on for more than a year, with both sides reaching a stalemate. In Washington, Congress and the White House are divided over the amount of support to provide Ukraine, with some lawmakers putting more emphasis on the Indo-Pacific and Middle East. Despite the loss of manpower and military equipment, Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to continue the invasion, promising to intensify strikes against Ukraine no matter the cost. While some in the U.S. and elsewhere have called for territorial concessions to Russia, the Ukrainian government has said it will continue its military campaign to re-take the territory that Russia occupies to this day.

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作者列舉了以下2024年間五個值得關注的國際議題(請見本欄上一篇)

1) 
以黎危機
2伊朗核武危機
3) 
委內瑞拉-蓋亞那爭端
4) 
台海戰爭危機
5) 
俄烏戰爭

由於標題中有「外交政策」一詞,想來作者認為它們可以用「協商方式」解決。

愚見認為

1) 
以黎危機真主黨只是在鼓譟么喝,作者則在危言聳聽。以巴衝突降溫後,這個危機自然解除。
2伊朗核武危機如果伊朗取得「功能性」核武,世界更加危機四伏;「外交協商」將成為非常重要和嚴肅的行為。只是我相當懷疑它能發揮多大的效用。伊朗領袖至少都是號稱的衛道士,其理性度即使高於基本教義派的信徒,應該相差無幾。
3) 
委內瑞拉-蓋亞那爭端我想這也是一個鼓譟么喝型的風波。馬杜羅總統意在圍蓋敲詐。
4) 
台海戰爭危機這不是「外交」議題;它是中、美兩國領袖智商有多高的問題。此外 -  5 年內台海並無戰爭危機;其次,兩岸關係不可能用外交協商方式解決
5) 
俄烏戰爭希望能盡快通過「協商方式」解決。


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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=7220182