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淺談中國的經濟成長率
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胡卜凱

跟一位老朋友談到「中國經濟成長率」。我的淺見如下;由於我不是經濟問題的門內漢,斗膽獻曝;請專家先進指正。

(我認為)討論中國經濟「成長率」的一個盲點是:

拿中國現在的GDP「成長率」跟十年、二十年前的做比較。

我說的「盲點」在於:

1)  當時中國是「發展中」國家;GDP基線值很低之外,能夠大幅興建基礎建設(包括房地產)和發展各種型態的產業;成長率自然能高到創造「奇蹟」。現在中國GDP值直追美國,又不再會有超大規模的基礎建設,4% - 5%GDP成長率已經傲視美、英、德諸國 (該欄第二篇 -7)。對中國來說,4%5%成長率是「新正常」或「新標竿」。章家敦之流拿它來唱衰中國,不足爲奇。一般人沒有必要跟著起鬨。

2) 
當年GDP基線值很低,且不說「超英趕美」,即使把目標放在「脫貧」和「小康社會」,也「必須」維持高經濟成長率。現在中國已經達到上述兩個目標;GDP基線值也高於美國之外的其它「已開發」國家;中國還需要維持8%10%的成長率來立足於世界嗎?舉個例子:月薪兩萬的員工需要也能夠得到10%甚至20%的加薪幅度;月薪200萬的總經理既不需要也很難得到10%20%的加薪幅度。

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中國經濟成長率對全球經濟的影響 -- Jai Hamid
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胡卜凱

哈密德女士這篇分析短小精悍她的觀點支持開欄文的部份意見她對中國政府的經濟政策採取正面評價在我看來相當公允客觀請參看中國經濟真正的負面影響以及中國經濟對世界經濟影響以及其現況與前景分析》兩欄的文章

我在全文中沒有看到關於 ”The need for speed” 的闡述中文標題反映了這一點。此外,以上她芳名的超連接引導至她在秘密政經中心網誌貼文的部落格;大家可以前往看看她對時下相關重大事件的評論/分析


China’s economic growth rate: The need for speed

Jai Hamid, 01/16/24

China’s economic engine, often compared to a high-speed train, is at a pivotal juncture. As Beijing gears up to release its fourth-quarter GDP data, the world is watching with bated breath. After a series of lackluster performances, China’s economic narrative is at a crossroads. Will the dragon regain its fiery growth, or are we witnessing a slow simmer to a more moderate flame?

Despite recent deflationary trends and property market blues, optimism cautiously bubbles in the air. Economists anticipate a 5.2% year-on-year rise in the fourth quarter, a modest uptick from 4.9% in the previous quarter. This expected increase, though slight, is crucial. It’s like adding just enough fuel to keep the train chugging along, but the question remains: Is it enough?

A Global Perspective on China’s Growth

China’s economic story cannot be isolated from the global context. The world has been on a rollercoaster since 2008, with financial crises, trade wars, and pandemics. While the 
US, with its monetary and fiscal gymnastics, has managed to keep its head above water, it’s not without its own set of problems, like rising inflation and the resulting interest rate hikes.

In 2024, the global economic landscape looks bleak, with major Western economies bracing for minimal growth. Amidst this, China, with a forecasted 4.7% growth rate, stands out. It’s not the double-digit growth of yesteryears, but in a world limping along, it’s like being the fastest runner in a marathon of the slow. This projection by the OECD positions China as a beacon of relative stability in an otherwise turbulent global economy.

China’s Economic Crossroads: Challenges and Opportunities

Diving deeper into China’s economic dynamics, we hit a complex web of structural and cyclical challenges. The era of rapid growth fueled by massive capital accumulation and labor integration is transitioning. China is grappling with the law of diminishing returns – a scenario where each additional yuan invested doesn’t quite pack the same punch it used to.

The real estate sector, once a bastion of investment, now wobbles under its own weight. It’s a familiar story in market economies – boom and bust, but with a Chinese twist. The country’s integration into global value chains means it’s not immune to the economic rhythms of the West. Yet, China’s pragmatic approach and willingness to deploy counter-cyclical policies set it apart.

China’s response to economic challenges often defies conventional Western criticism. The real estate crisis, for instance, could be an opportunity for the government to step in, clear the decks, and perhaps even democratize real estate ownership. It’s a bold move, but boldness is part of the Chinese economic playbook.

In 2023, China’s banking sector recorded an unprecedented lending spree, underscoring the central bank’s efforts to keep the economic wheels turning. However, this comes with its own set of dilemmas. The distribution of credit, skewing more towards corporations than households, raises questions about sustaining long-term consumer-driven growth.

This brings us to the delicate dance of monetary policy. With deflationary winds blowing, there’s talk of easing the monetary reigns. Lowering interest rates could stimulate spending, but it’s a tightrope walk. Too much easing, and you risk inflating a bubble; too little, and the growth engine sputters.

Another factor in China’s economic narrative is the balance of internal and external forces. Domestically, consumer and business confidence needs a boost, while externally, China’s trade balance remains robust despite global protectionism. The reopening of the Chinese tourist market could be a wildcard, injecting much-needed vitality into the hospitality sector.

In essence, China’s economic journey in 2024 is akin to navigating a complex maze. The paths of countercyclical interventions, policy fine-tuning, and global economic shifts all converge. The challenge for China is not just about maintaining growth but doing so in a way that is sustainable, balanced, and in tune with both domestic needs and global dynamics.

The world is keenly watching China’s next steps. Will the economic dragon soar again, or will it navigate through the maze with cautious steps? Either way, China’s economic trajectory in 2024 will be a defining factor in the global economic landscape, influencing markets, policies, and economies far beyond its borders.


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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=7221103