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俄烏戰爭現況：開欄文
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瀏覽21,756 ｜回應75｜推薦2 |
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烏克蘭的「春季攻勢」蛻化為「夏季攻勢」後，明顯地陷入膠著；沒有什麼值得寫封家書來匯報的進展。以下轉載兩篇「戰況評估」。我存檔備查；看官們請自行參考。
第一篇號稱是：分別從普丁和澤倫斯基兩位的角度，就(佔有)領土、心理、以及軍事三個層面所做的分析。
第二篇是布林肯國務卿的評估。我相信政治作用含量大大超標，可信度自然必須打個折扣。何況，自鮑爾之後，「美國國務卿會說謊」是討論政治的人不得不常記於心的教訓。
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烏克蘭又出新招：決壩戰術 -- Kieran Kelly/Iona Cleave
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抗戰期間中國曾使用企圖水淹日軍的決堤戰術；據說造成中國老百姓傷亡慘重。烏克蘭這次「決壩」，看來至少造成俄軍在後勤補給上的困難；只是不知道：老百姓生命和財產的傷亡以及損失，是否與其等值。
Ukraine floods Russian troops in dam strike
Drone strike breaches structure, causing reservoir water to surge into trenches of invading army
Kieran Kelly/Iona Cleave, 10/27/25
Ukraine has carried out a drone strike on Belgorod dam that led to flooding in the southern Russian region and cut off several Moscow units.
Water gushed from the damaged reservoir, disrupting Russian logistics and stranding troops stationed on the Ukrainian side of the border in Vovchansk.
“The main thing is that the enemy’s logistics have become significantly more complicated,” a spokesman for the 16th Army Corps said.
“So the units that managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets have effectively been cut off from their main forces.
“So we’re expecting the [prisoner of war] exchange pool to be replenished,” it added, referring to the potential capture of stranded Russian troops.
Vovchansk was occupied by Russian troops until September 2022, when Ukrainian troops staged a successful counter-offensive to liberate the town.
Heavy fighting resumed again in May last year, forcing thousands of residents from their homes.
Col Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces, confirmed on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had carried out the strike.
“The Belgorod Reservoir cracked today. Since the moment of the magical kick, the level has dropped by 100cm (3ft),” he wrote on Facebook.
“The operation was named ‘Hang in there, dam!’, but as the worms’ [Russians’] intelligence shows, the dam is a little messed up,” he added.
According to Russian regional authorities, the dam was damaged after several strikes between Oct 24 and 26.
On Saturday, Vyacheslav Gladkov, Belgorod’s governor, reported that the dam had been struck by a Ukrainian drone.
“We understand that the enemy may attempt to strike again and destroy the dam,” he said, warning that 1,000 people could be at risk if the structure is destroyed.
As of Monday, the water was flowing uncontrollably, according to verified video footage.
Before the dam strike, Ukraine’s 16 Army Corps said Russian activity near Vovchansk had increased owing to warm weather.
This hardened the ground and led to shallower rivers in the region, making logistics easier for the Russians.
But after the strike, the water surged into the Siverskyi Donets River, reportedly flooding Russian bunkers and trenches and complicating logistics for the forward positions of Moscow’s troops.
It comes amid reports that hundreds of Russian troops were able to enter the key city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region over the weekend.
It follows more than a year of operations in the area, where fighting is “highly dynamic and intense”, according to the Ukrainian military.
Much of Russian fighting has centred around Donetsk, which forms part of the wider Donbas region, particularly since Donald Trump returned to the White House and launched a push for peace.
Vladimir Putin told the US president he would freeze the front lines across Ukraine if Kyiv were to give up the remaining 12 per cent of the strategic Donbas region.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, rejected Putin’s demands, claiming the region would be used to launch further attacks.
Mr Zelensky said in his late Sunday address that the situation in Pokrovsk was “difficult” and success in the city – a key logistics chokepoint – was “critically important”.
For the Kremlin, victory here would boost momentum at a time when Russia is said to be making slow but steady gains across the front line, and could open up a direct route into the heart of the Donbas.
Earlier this month, Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top military general, said that 31 Ukrainian battalions had been encircled by Russian forces in Pokrovsk, which were rejected by Russian military bloggers and Ukrainian sources.
Gerasimov was accused of lying about Russia’s progress in the region in order to please Putin.
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第三方軍援烏克蘭-星辰故事屋
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這則消息我無法證實，它的邏輯是說得通的；此之謂「地緣政治學」。轉載於此，存檔備查。
請參考：
Turkey ready to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, source says (For Peacekeeping Mission)
Russia criticises Turkey for supplying weapons to Ukraine while offering to broker peace
俄軍根本贏不了？情報發現除了北約：還有一個隱藏勢力軍援烏克蘭
星辰故事屋，2025-09-25
最近俄羅斯衛星網扒出個挺關鍵的事兒 -- 明面上大家都知道北約一直在給烏克蘭送武器，可俄羅斯情報部門查出來，暗地裡還藏著一股勢力也在幫烏克蘭，而且這股勢力還不是小打小鬧，是有組織的團夥，就是以土耳其為核心的突厥系集團。
說起來這突厥系也不是臨時搭的班子，早在上世紀90年代土耳其就牽頭搞了個突厥文化組織，把亞塞拜然、哈薩克、吉爾吉斯斯坦這些國家都拉了進來，後來2009年又在巴庫搞了個突厥語國家議員大會，成員還是這些人，等於早就把圈子劃好了。現在俄羅斯情報實錘了，土耳其、亞塞拜然這些突厥系國家的武器製造商，正開足馬力造武器彈藥，然後通過一個叫加濟安泰普的德吉爾門·馬基納區域，先把這些武器偽裝成人道主義救援物資運到非洲的蘇丹。到了蘇丹之後，再換層皮，假裝成是蘇丹自己生產的武器，接著找瑞士地中海航運公司，把這批“蘇丹產”的武器運到德國漢堡港，最後由德國通過波蘭，一路送到烏克蘭境內。更有意思的是，塞爾維亞也在偷偷給烏克蘭送武器，等於現在烏克蘭的武器來源，除了北約，又多了突厥系和塞爾維亞這兩條暗線。
那突厥系為啥要費這麼大勁、不計成本幫烏克蘭？俄羅斯衛星網說得挺明白，他們的目標就一個：不能讓俄羅斯打破平衡。你想啊，要是俄羅斯真拿下烏克蘭，再加上白俄羅斯，差不多就能恢復蘇聯至少80%的實力了，到時候就是一個手握300萬經驗豐富軍隊的大國，這對突厥系國家來說，簡直是懸在頭頂的一把刀。尤其是哈薩克這些國家，國內本來就有俄羅斯族人，而俄羅斯當初出兵烏克蘭的理由，要是哪天用到他們身上，他們可沒地方說理去。你看北約那些國家，像波蘭、波羅的海三國，有美國這個老大護著，俄羅斯再橫也不敢輕易動他們，但突厥系這些國家不一樣，沒靠山、沒老大撐腰，真等俄羅斯騰出手來，他們可不就危險了？所以他們幫烏克蘭，根本不是啥“伸張正義”，就是怕俄羅斯贏了之後轉頭收拾自己，說白了就是想把俄軍主力拖在俄烏前線，讓俄羅斯沒精力找他們麻煩，給自己換個安全。
面對這情況，俄羅斯也趕緊有了動作 -- 宣佈啟動2025年秋季徵兵計畫。今年春季他們已經征了16萬人，現在又要從10月1號到12月31號再征一批。但有意思的是，這次新征的兵，一個都不會派去俄烏前線，全留著守俄羅斯本土。為啥？還不是因為現在俄羅斯腹背受敵：西邊要盯著北約，南邊要防著土耳其這些突厥系國家，再加上烏克蘭的無人機、巡航導彈老往俄羅斯本土飛，本土的防空、防衛都得有人扛，要是把新兵派去前線，家裡就空了，萬一其他勢力趁虛而入，那麻煩就大了。
不過俄羅斯專家自己也說了大實話，亞塞拜然這些突厥系國家的援助，單看其實改變不了俄烏前線的大態勢，但架不住這些武器都是蘇制的，烏克蘭士兵用著順手，不用重新培訓，拿過來就能上戰場，這對烏克蘭來說就是實實在在的好處。更紮心的是，有俄羅斯專家直接點破，現在的俄羅斯根本沒盟友 -- 以前可能還能靠點周邊國家，現在倒好，連突厥系這種曾經還算“能說上話”的圈子，都反過來跟烏克蘭站一邊，這種孤立無援的勁兒，比前線少幾門炮還讓人著急。
再說說烏克蘭從這條暗線拿到的東西，也不是啥小打小鬧：土耳其的TB-2察打一體無人機，之前在戰場上就挺能打的；還有Tisa手槍、希薩爾-A近程防空導彈系統，再加上各種炸彈、無人機零部件，甚至還有蘇聯遺留下來的武器彈藥 -- 這些東西可能單個不算特別先進，但勝在量大、好用，剛好能補上烏克蘭前線的消耗。要知道俄烏衝突打了這麼久，雙方都在拼消耗，烏克蘭這邊多一條武器來源，就能多撐一會兒，俄羅斯那邊的壓力自然就更大。
現在再回頭看“俄軍根本贏不了？”這個問題，其實答案已經越來越明顯了。本來北約的援助就夠讓俄羅斯頭疼的，現在又多了個突厥系在暗地裡“捅刀子”，還有塞爾維亞偷偷幫忙，烏克蘭的武器供應越來越穩；而俄羅斯這邊，沒盟友幫忙，兵力得拆成兩半用 -- 前線要跟烏克蘭死磕，本土還得防著其他勢力，徵兵也只能先顧著家裡，前線的兵力能不能跟得上消耗都是個問題。以前俄羅斯還能靠“集中力量辦大事”，現在變成了“四處救火”，就算軍事實力再強，也架不住這麼多對手圍著轉。
說白了，現在的俄烏衝突早就不是俄羅斯和烏克蘭兩個人的事兒了，成了多方勢力的博弈場。北約明著打壓俄羅斯，突厥系暗著自保，塞爾維亞也想在裡面分杯羹，只有俄羅斯被架在中間，進退兩難。接下來就看俄羅斯能不能頂住壓力，要麼找到破局的辦法，要麼就得接受“贏不了”的現實 -- 畢竟雙拳難敵四手，再強的國家，被這麼多勢力盯著，想贏也難。
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丹麥出招；普丁一個頭兩個大 - Bogdan Ilyin
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「不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也。」(《孫子•謀攻篇》第1)
請參考：Inside Ukraine's drone campaign to blitz Russia’s energy industry
這篇報導圖文並茂。就烏克蘭無人機大規模攻擊俄國境內能源措施有詳細報導。
Denmark Just Triggered Putin’s Worst Nightmare
Europe’s quietest country just made one of the loudest moves against Moscow’s war machine.
Bogdan Ilyin, 10/06/25
While the world’s attention is fixed on drones, missiles, and battlefront maps, something quietly shifted in the cold waters of the Baltic Sea this week.
Denmark — small, measured, and usually unflappable — just struck a blow that could do more damage to the Kremlin’s economy than a thousand artillery shells.
After months of watching Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” — a vast armada of unregistered, aging oil tankers quietly hauling sanctioned Russian oil across European waters — Copenhagen finally snapped. And with one stroke of regulation, Denmark has begun to choke one of the Kremlin’s most lucrative escape routes.
The Danish government announced new, sweeping controls on oil tankers passing through its territorial waters — a direct strike at Russia’s murky maritime network that has long helped fund its war machine.
請至原網頁觀看彭博新聞所發簡訊
At first glance, it sounds bureaucratic. Environmental inspections. Maritime safety rules. Paperwork. But look closer, and you’ll see what this really is:
Europe’s first direct strike against Russia’s shadow fleet — the ghost armada keeping Putin’s war funded and afloat.
The “shadow fleet” sounds like something out of a Cold War thriller — and in many ways, it is. Thousands of aging oil tankers, with forged papers and murky ownership, sail under fake flags to carry Russian crude around sanctions.
They’re ghosts.
No one knows who owns them.
No one insures them.
And yet, they keep Putin’s war chest full.
According to European analysts, nearly one in six oil tankers in the world now belongs to this illicit network — a floating loophole for Moscow’s sanctions.
For months, they’ve operated freely through Danish waters. Until now.
Environment Minister Magnus Heunicke was blunt:
“These old ships pose a particular risk to our marine environment. That’s why we are tightening controls with very basic environmental rules.”
Translation: if your tanker looks like it was welded together in the 1970s and reeks of sanctioned oil — expect to get stopped, inspected, and possibly detained.
But this isn’t just about protecting fish or reefs. It’s strategic.
Every detained tanker means one fewer shipment of Russian oil reaching global markets.
Every delay costs Moscow millions.
And every inspection sends a message: Denmark will no longer be the silent corridor for Putin’s shadow empire.
“We Must Put an End to Putin’s War Machine”
Industry and Trade Minister Morten Bødskov didn’t mince words either:
“We are using all tools. We must put an end to Putin’s war machine.”
It’s not just rhetoric. Denmark’s move dovetails with a broader European effort to starve Russia’s oil economy — the same one that bankrolls drone factories and missile production.
What makes this moment different is tone.
This isn’t a plea for sanctions.
This is enforcement.
Europe’s smallest nations are now acting like major powers because they’ve realized the battleground isn’t just in Donetsk — it’s also in the Danish Straits.
The Danish Maritime Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency will now run joint inspections of suspicious tankers.
Every logbook. Every hull. Every insurance claim.
And for the first time, data from these checks will be shared internationally — a quiet but powerful move that lets allies track, sanction, or even seize specific vessels.
Think of it as turning on the lights in a dark sea.
The “shadow fleet” can’t hide when everyone’s watching.
The timing is no coincidence.
Just weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron called for detaining suspect oil tankers outright. German and French investigators are already tracing drone activity near ships tied to Russia’s covert fleet.
And now, Denmark — the gatekeeper of the Baltic — has made it official policy.
This is no longer fragmented national action. It’s coordinated European deterrence, and it’s only getting started.
Even analysts who once dismissed maritime crackdowns as “symbolic” are rethinking their tone. Because cutting off logistics is how wars are won without firing a shot.
For Putin, this is a nightmare scenario.
His oil exports — the backbone of his wartime economy — rely on these aging tankers to reach Asia. Western insurance bans and price caps forced Moscow to build its own gray-market network.
But that network is fragile. One regulatory net, one denied port entry, one seized ship — and the entire supply chain begins to crack.
Denmark just threw the first wrench into the gears.
Denmark didn’t send a single missile.
It didn’t deploy troops.
It just used law, transparency, and resolve — and it hit the Kremlin where it hurts most.
Putin’s shadow fleet is now being dragged into the sunlight.
And once the world starts looking closer, this so-called “invisible navy” might vanish faster than any missile could destroy it.
Europe has finally realized that sometimes, the quietest moves make the loudest noise.
Putin built his war machine on oil — and Denmark just turned off the tap.
Written by Bogdan Ilyin
208 followers, 1 following
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俄國：俄、烏戰爭的大輸家 -- Jeremy Shapiro
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請參考：Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia
普丁現在是騎虎難下，悔不當初，捶胸頓足，欲哭無淚；即使這個現實不影響他的身體健康，多多少少會影響他的睡眠品質，從而影響他的心理狀況(遲早有一天失心瘋發作？)。
Russia Is Losing the War—Just Not to Ukraine
A war meant to catalyze national revival has instead become a case study in national self-harm.
Jeremy Shapiro, 09/10/25
Vladimir Putin, we’ve been told since the start of the war in Ukraine, has goals that extend well beyond territory: He seeks to upend the post–Cold War international order, to reconstruct the Soviet sphere of influence, and to allow Russia to reassume its rightful position as a world power equal to the United States. Bilateral summits, such as the recent one between Donald Trump and Putin in Anchorage, offer a symbolic recognition of that aspiration—as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov highlighted not so subtly by showing up in Alaska wearing a CCCP (U.S.S.R.) sweatshirt.
But summits and sweatshirts won’t make Russia a superpower. Only a credible show of strength can do that. The war in Ukraine was meant to supply this, but it has instead become a slow-motion demonstration of Russia’s decline—less a catalyst of national revival than a case study in national self-harm.
Moscow has devoted considerable resources, manpower, and political will to its invasion of the country next door. In purely military terms, it has managed not to lose and may even be eking its way toward some sort of attritional victory in the Donbas. But even if it consolidates its territorial gains and keeps Ukraine out of NATO, Russia will have won only a pyrrhic victory, mortgaging its future for the sake of a few bombed-out square kilometers. In other words, Russia is effectively losing the war in Ukraine—not to Ukraine, but to everyone else.
In virtually any likely end-of-war scenario, Ukraine will remain a hostile, Western-armed neighbor—a permanent sucking wound on Russia’s western flank. Europe will continue to embargo Russian goods and build its energy future without Russia’s Gazprom. The Russian army, having shown itself moderately adaptable to modern warfare, will nonetheless be gutted of equipment, bereft of its best cadres, and reliant on foreign suppliers. To reconstitute it will take years and many billions of dollars. By then, Russia’s supposed mastery of modern drone warfare will probably be obsolete.
While Russia obsesses over Ukraine, its erstwhile friends and clients are quietly slipping away. In Africa, Wagner’s heirs struggle to hold their franchises together, and China and the Gulf states are buying up influence, drawing from far deeper pockets. In the Middle East, Moscow’s old claim to be an indispensable broker appears totally vacuous.
Nowhere is this clearer than in Syria. Moscow once celebrated its involvement in that country’s civil war as part of a “Russian resurgence” that would restore the country to the ranks of great powers, showing that it could project influence and outmaneuver Washington in the Middle East. Now Syria has become a symbol of overstretch. The Bashar al-Assad regime, whose survival Putin once touted as existential for Russia, disappeared with barely a murmur from Moscow, leaving Turkey, Israel, the Gulf States, and the United States to carve up influence in the land it once ruled.
The South Caucasus were once Moscow’s backyard playground: Azerbaijan and Armenia long depended on Russia for security guarantees, arms supplies, and mediation of their conflicts. Russia’s implicit promise to Armenia was that its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and its deep ties with the Russian military (as well as the Russian peacekeepers deployed on the disputed territory) would ensure protection against Azerbaijani aggression. But in 2020 and again 2023, Azerbaijan routed Armenia in the territory contested between the two states, showing how little weight Russian promises carried. Now the United States is negotiating peace between the two countries—something unimaginable even four years ago.
The one place Russia has effectively influenced is Europe, where NATO has expanded to include Finland and Sweden, and states have increased their military spending, courtesy of Russian belligerence. Putin appears to have engineered a strange geopolitical bargain: Moscow sacrifices its demographically scarce young men in the Donbas so that Europeans will finally buy air defenses.
At home, Russia’s wartime economy looks like a parody of Soviet stagnation, exactly what Putin warned against in the early years of his presidency. Factories churn out shells and missiles even as the rest of the world invests in artificial intelligence, green technology, and microchips. The Kremlin has succeeded in building a fortress economy, but one that is fortified against the future more than against the enemy. This would be funny if it weren’t so tragic for Russia’s prospects: a petrostate doubling down on oil and artillery in the middle of a technological revolution. The Kremlin says it’s waging a war of destiny; in reality, it’s missing the 21st century.
The clearest proof that Russia is not winning lies in Beijing. Russia is running down its stocks of precision missiles, and without access to Western components, it has grown ever more dependent on imports from China to sustain its military machine. Each missile in turns costs millions of dollars (for example, approximately $1 million to $2 million for a Kalibr cruise missile) and increases Russia’s need for fossil-fuel exports and capital. China is now Russia’s largest oil customer, accounting for nearly 40 percent of Russian fossil-fuel-export revenue in 2025 so far (at discounted rates), and has also become its main source of foreign credit; Western finance has dried up because of the sanctions.
Far from making Russia a superpower, Russia’s war against Ukraine has relegated it from would-be empire to China’s disgruntled junior partner. For Xi Jinping, this war is a gift. It is diverting Western resources and bleeding Russia, all at bargain prices. For Putin, it’s a trap.
Both Russia’s defenders and its enemies suggest that a successful campaign in Ukraine will somehow produce a stronger, reinvigorated Russia capable of posing an immediate threat to Europe and beyond. But what exactly would Moscow have “won”? An angry, revanchist neighbor; a more unified, hostile Europe; a ruined economy; a gutted army; reduced international influence; and a boss in Beijing. That is not victory but self-inflicted decline.
This is perhaps why the Kremlin seems so uninterested in ending the war. A compromise peace would not expose a defeat on the battlefield but rather something far worse: the absence of any larger strategy. As one economist put it, “The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war and deal with that kind of economic reality. So it cannot afford to win the war, nor can it afford to lose.”
In sacrificing its global influence for the chance to spend the past year pulverizing the previously unheard-of city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas, Russia has proved not its resilience but its near irrelevance. Russia has not rediscovered its imperial destiny. It has discovered only that it can still destroy—and that destruction is just about all that its foreign policy has to offer.
Article originally published at The Atlantic
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Did the White House not understand what Putin was really offering?
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Why the West failed the ‘Putin test’
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俄烏戰爭最新戰況 ----- Kim Hjelmgaard
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Putin stalls. Trump changes his mind. Ukraine targets Moscow. Latest on the war.
Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODA, 07/22/25
Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling over a ceasefire. The White House has changed its mind about sending weapons to Ukraine. A major Ukrainian drone attack on Russia sowed chaos at airports serving Moscow.
Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine has seen Moscow make its largest territorial gains in Ukraine since the start of the year, according to the Ukrainian open-source DeepState website and estimates by the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, D.C., that specializes in military affairs and warfare.
In the past month, Russian military units concentrated in Ukraine's Sumy region, which borders Russia in the northeast, the eastern cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, and Zaporizhzhia in the south, have gained about 200 square miles, according to data from the war study institute. That's an area a little larger than the size of Atlanta.
Does that mean Russia is prevailing? Not really. It's not that simple. Here's the latest on Russia's war in Ukraine.
Why is Russia gaining ground in Ukraine?
Ukraine has liberated about 7% of the territory Russia occupied before and after Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to Ukrainian estimates and DeepState. That leaves about 19% still in Russian hands. Moscow still controls Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, and about two-thirds of Ukraine's Donetsk region, a vast and heavily industrialized region which remains the center of the ground war.
Russia has long had the upper hand in the war in terms of military manpower, but analysts say Moscow has suffered more casualties, and its loss of equipment − vehicles, artillery, tanks − also has been at a higher rate than Ukraine's. Though Russia has been advancing in recent months, those gains have been relatively slow and small, amounting to less than 0.1% of Ukraine's territory in July, according to a manual calculation.
Still, one reason Russia may have been able to make progress, according to the war study institute, is that Russia has substantially increased its use of drone attacks, and missiles and shells, on Ukraine. These grew at an average monthly rate of 31% in June and July. Russia has been using drones to pin down Ukrainian troops.
No, then yes, to more American weapons for Ukraine. Why?
President Donald Trump began his second term promising to end the war in Ukraine in his first 24 hours in office. He quickly halted the flow of military aid to Kyiv and temporarily stopped sharing some intelligence. He also cast blame on Ukraine for the war, giving President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a public dressing down in the Oval Office when he tried to push back on that assertion and counter Trump by saying Putin was not a reliable negotiator.
Since then, the leaders have revised their stances and welcomed more nuance in their discussions.
The war is still raging. Trump has appeared to change his tune on Ukraine and Putin as the Russian leader has pushed forward with drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and repeatedly rebuffed Trump's attempts to broker a ceasefire. In early July, Trump said he would resume shipping arms to Ukraine. He also announced a new arrangement with NATO that will see the military alliance transfer advanced U.S.-made air defense systems to Kyiv.
He also altered his attitude about the Russian leader.
"He's very nice to us all the time," Trump said July 9. "But it turns out to be meaningless."
What about the diplomacy?
Two rounds of Trump-brokered ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia have come to nothing. As the relationship between Putin and Trump has soured, a broad coalition of U.S. lawmakers has lined up ready to place new aggressive sanctions on Russia. Trump also has threatened "severe" economic penalties on Moscow if it does not commit to a ceasefire by early September. The Kremlin has dismissed this as "bluster."
The Russian government has suggested that Trump and Putin could meet in Beijing in September when Russia's leader is there for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Moscow said it had not heard whether Trump plans to attend.
The White House has not commented.
But there's little doubt Moscow, for now, is on the back foot geopolitically, and perhaps even militarily.
Zelenskyy and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot announced in Kyiv a series of manufacturing deals with French companies on July 21 that will launch drone production in Ukraine. Overnight, Russia launched its latest barrage of drones and missiles at Kyiv. But Ukraine is also fighting back in ways increasingly difficult for Moscow to ignore. Videos published by Russian media showed people sleeping on the floor of Sheremetyevo, Russia's busiest airport, amid long lines and canceled flights after Ukraine bombarded it with drones.
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烏克蘭戰局新變數--D. Perry
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請參考：
Trump’s 50-day ultimatum gives Russia a chance to wear down Ukraine
France, Italy reportedly opt out of US-NATO arms deal for Ukraine
Trump and NATO just changed the Ukraine war — now Putin must be forced to choose
Dan Perry, opinion contributor, 07/17/25
President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte have given Russian President Vladimir Putin something to help focus his mind. The July 14 announcement of a new NATO-backed weapons corridor into Ukraine, routed through European allies and structured around arms sales rather than grants, ends for now the prospect of a wholesale American abandonment of Ukraine.
Even if the new arrangement is cloaked in political deniability for Trump with his MAGA base and reinforces Trump’s shamefully transactional nature, it means that the U.S.-European alliance to support Ukraine is back on.
In their Oval Office meeting, Trump and Rutte repeatedly referred to a staggering figure: 100,000 Russian soldiers killed since January alone. It marked a rare moment of strategic clarity from Trump. He has noticed that Putin is in no rush to settle for a mere slice of eastern Ukraine, as candidate Trump clearly had expected he would. What Putin wants is a puppet in Kyiv so that Russia can control all of Ukraine.
This suggests that Putin really is serious about trying to reestablish the former Soviet Empire. This cannot be allowed. On the other hand, Putin’s regime has shown a willingness to engage in nuclear blackmail, and a cornered Kremlin may not be bluffing.
The new NATO structure for arming Ukraine grants President Volodymyr Zelensky time, and it also places NATO — which Trump once disparaged as obsolete — back as the centerpiece of a Western alliance that might actually still exist. That should alarm Putin, who, like Trump, made his own miscalculation that there is no limit to his ability to manipulate Trump.
But to end the war without another three years of attrition, more is needed — and Trump, ironically, is uniquely suited to deliver it.
Trump has the political license to challenge his base, scorn for diplomatic convention and a certain form of credibility — however grudging, fearful and disdainful — with leaders across the political spectrum. He can make a bold offer to test Putin’s seriousness and unstick this war.
Trump should say he is willing to recognize Russian sovereignty at the current battle lines, including a narrow land bridge to Crimea through parts of Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk that Russia already holds (about one-fifth of Ukraine’s land). This would not be moral approval, but sober acceptance of military reality. Ukraine is unlikely to retake these areas without years of fighting; the Ukrainians will likely grumble, but not much more than that.
Moreover, Ukraine would formally agree not to join NATO — addressing Russia’s central (if overstated) security concern and removing one of Putin’s main justifications for war.
In exchange, Ukraine would receive immediate bilateral security guarantees from major Western powers (similar to U.S. guarantees to Israel) and a fast-track path to joining the European Union — the actual engine of prosperity and guarantor of alignment with the Western democracies.
No, Trump cannot unilaterally promise EU accession. But that’s the point. He thrives on pressuring systems into doing what they otherwise wouldn’t. If he throws his political weight behind Ukraine’s EU integration, Brussels and European capitals will scramble to find a way forward. Ukraine will find a way to address concerns about corruption, its fiscal policies and so on.
Russia might even be offered amnesty and an end to economic sanctions. On the other hand, rejection of this deal could come with 500 percent U.S. tariffs on anyone still trading with Moscow. Decisive, outrageous, transactional — Trumpian. It would be a bit reminiscent of Trump’s announcement last month that the war between Israel and Iran was over, seemingly before the parties knew about it.
Versions of such a plan may have been discussed already, but not in public by the parties involved in this conflict. Words said publicly have another weight altogether. This is true in geopolitics in general, even if Trump’s own words (such as his Great Gaza Riviera plan from February) can be absurd.
Critics will invoke Munich, where Western powers handed Adolf Hitler the Sudetenland in a failed attempt to prevent war in 1938. But that analogy, while powerful, isn’t always instructive.
History offers examples where land concessions to aggressors — painful as they are — have helped end wars and preserve the sovereignty of the nation under threat. Successful examples include the deals that helped to end the Korean War, multiple wars between India and Pakistan, the Bosnian War in 1995 and the 2000 war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Syria is today considering whether to concede part or all of the Golan Heights to reach a peace deal with Israel.
When done with clarity, backed by deterrence and paired with rewards that preserve and strengthen the sovereign state, an apparent capitulation can stop a war and sometimes even open paths to peace.
Putin may declare a victory. But if Ukraine gains EU integration, security guarantees and a Western future, then the core outcome of the war would still be a loss for Putin.
And if Putin refuses even that deal? Then Trump’s supporters might at last understand that the Russian dictator is an outlaw who must be thoroughly resisted. You cannot run away from every fight.
Dan Perry led Associated Press coverage in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, including the Israel and Iran bureaus. He publishes Ask Questions Later on Substack.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
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烏克蘭天降神兵俄國空軍基地 - Alexander Smith
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這真可媲美電影情節：
1) 用卡車和木箱偷運117架無人機深入俄國境內2,500英里。
2) 木箱上蓋可用遙控方式移除。
3) 在談和會議前一天發動奇襲。
4) 同時攻擊5個空軍基地，摧毀1/3的俄國戰略飛彈轟炸機；造價70億美元。
它應該是前無古人的天大「下馬威」了！很顯然的，這整個行動有「內鬼」協助；或有層層俄國官員拿了錢替人辦事。
另請參閱這篇分析以及：
* 'Operation Spiderweb’: How Ukraine destroyed over a third of Russian bombers
* Russia's 'Pearl Harbor': What to know Ukraine's audacious drone strike
* Confirmed Losses Of Russian Aircraft Mount After Ukrainian Drone Assault
Ukraine's massive drone attack deep inside Russia lays bare Putin's vulnerability
Though the knock-on effects are unclear, some military commentators have called the strike Russia's "Pearl Harbor." Hopes for direct peace talks, which resume Monday, remain low.
Alexander Smith, NBC News, 06/02/25
It was a stunning, audacious attack whose widespread effects are only just becoming clear.
Ukraine managed to smuggle 117 aerial drones on the backs of trucks that deposited them at the perimeter of four Russian air bases — one of them deep inside Siberia some 2,500 miles from Ukraine's borders, according to Ukrainian officials.
While there are differing accounts on the extent of the ensuing damage of Sunday’s “Spiderweb” operation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 40 Russian aircraft — 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers — were hit. Ukraine's security service, the SBU, put the estimated cost to the Kremlin at $7 billion.
Some military commentators and pro-Russian bloggers have called it the country's "Pearl Harbor" — a reference to Japanese attack in 1941 that saw the United States enter World War II.
It came Sunday, a day before the latest round of direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on Monday.
There was little optimism for diplomatic progress even before the strike, with Ukraine sending its defense minister, Rustem Umerov, but Russia only dispatching the far more junior Putin aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to the Çırağan Palace in Istanbul.
Those talks have now concluded for the day, Zelenskyy said at a news conference in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius just after midday local time (9 a.m. ET). The president said that the two sides exchanged documents and were preparing a fresh round of prisoner exchanges, extending the only tangible outcome from the two sides' first meeting last month.
“I am waiting to hear minister Umerov’s full report,” Zelenskyy said.
A far more likely outcome of Sunday's strike is Russia continuing to bomb Ukrainian civilians — this time under the pretext of retaliation, “even though in reality these strikes are planned long in advance,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow with the London-based think-tank Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program.
Less hard to quantify will be the huge blow to Vladimir Putin's pride, with Western analysts in agreement that this was a humiliation for the Russian president.
“At a time when Putin seems to think that he is winning on the battlefield, this demonstrates that his forces are in fact very vulnerable,” said Sven Biscop, a director at the Egmont Institute, a think tank in Brussels. “This may not change the course of the war, but it does mean that every gain Russia makes will be at high cost.”
He added it was “quite amazing” that “a significant part of their bomber force” could “be destroyed like that.”
The strike took a year and a half to plan, according to Zelenskyy, and played out on the eve of the latest round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul.
It's still unclear what impact the surgical strike will have on Monday's negotiations, hopes for which were already dim thanks to the deep divisions between the positions of Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine says it is ready to sign an unconditional 30-day ceasefire; Russia is essentially demanding Ukraine's surrender.
Brokering the talks, President Donald Trump has shifted from the unambiguously pro-Ukrainian stance of his predecessor, President Joe Biden, and offered concessions to the Kremlin that have outraged many in the West.
At the same time, he accused Putin last week of going “absolutely crazy” by continuing to launch regular attacks on Ukraine civilians. Ultimately, he has threatened to walk away from the peace talks if they do not yield the results he once promised he would achieve in just 24 hours.
Indeed, overnight into Sunday, Russia launched some 500 attack drones into Ukraine, Zelenskyy said. The night next came 84 more, with at least 10 people killed and dozens more injured across the country, Ukraine's air force said.
Other pro-Russia observers are calling for even more drastic measures.
“We hope that the response will be the same as the U.S. response to the attack on Pearl Harbor, or even tougher,” one Russian military blogger, Roman Alekhin, said on the messaging app Telegram.
Another pro-war Telegram channel, Dva Mayora, added that it was “a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine" — a threat often made by Putin since launching the invasion three years ago.
“We can expect a great deal of sound and fury from Moscow,” Giles said. Russia “will be working hard on convincing the United States to attempt to rein Ukraine in, in order to prevent any further damage to Russia’s means of bombarding Ukrainian cities with long range missiles,” he added.
“In a way, the more important question is how the United States reacts, and how eager it is to take Moscow‘s side and constrain Ukraine,” he said.
Alexander Smith reported from London and Daryna Mayer reported from Kyiv.
Alexander Smith is a senior reporter for NBC News Digital based in London.
Daryna Mayer contributed.
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川、普電話對談無助於俄、烏和議 -- Anthony Zurcher
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Trump's call with Putin exposes shifting ground on Ukraine peace talks
Anthony Zurcher, enior North America reporter, 05/20/2
Last year, Donald Trump promised he would end the Ukraine War in "24 hours".
Last week, he said that it would not be resolved until he and Russian President Vladimir Putin could "get together" and hash it out in person.
On Monday, the ground shifted again.
After a two-hour phone call with Putin, he said that the conditions of a peace deal could only be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine – and maybe with the help of the Pope.
Still, the US president has not lost his sense of optimism about the prospect for peace, posting on social media that the combatants would "immediately start" negotiations for a ceasefire and an end to the war.
That sentiment was somewhat at odds with the Russian view. Putin only said that his country is ready to work with Ukraine to craft a "memorandum on a possible future peace agreement".
Talks about memorandums and a "possible future" of peace hardly seems the kind of solid ground on which lasting deals can be quickly built.
Putin again emphasised that any resolution would have to address the "root causes" of the war – which Russia has claimed in the past to be Ukraine's desire for closer ties to Europe.
There is a possibility that Trump's latest take on the war in Ukraine could be a sign that the US will ultimately abandon the negotiating table.
"Big egos involved, but I think something's going to happen," Trump said on Monday afternoon. "And if it doesn't, I'll just back away and they'll have to keep going."
Such a move, however, comes with its own set of questions – and risks.
If the US washes its hands of the war, as Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have also threatened, does it mean the US would also end any military and intelligence support for Ukraine?
And if that is the case, then it may be a development that Russia, with its greater resources compared to a Ukraine cut off from American backing, would welcome.
That prospect is enough to have Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky concerned.
"It's crucial for all of us that the United States does not distance itself from the talks and the pursuit of peace," he said on Monday after the Trump-Putin call.
Putting aside Monday's rhetoric, it appears that Ukraine and Russia are set to continue some kind of talks – and talking in any form is progress after nearly three years of war. Still to be determined is whether the Russian team will be more than the low-level delegation that travelled to Istanbul to meet with the Ukrainians last Friday.
Trump is holding out the promise of reduced sanctions on Russia – and new trade deals and economic investment – as the enticement that will move Putin toward a peace agreement. He mentioned that again in his post-call comments. Not discussed, on the other hand, were any negative consequences, such as new sanctions on Russian banking and energy exports.
The US president last month warned that he would not tolerate Putin "tapping me along" and said that Russia should not target civilian areas. But yesterday, Russia launched its largest drone strike of the war on Ukrainian cities, and Monday's call between the two world leaders makes clear that any ceasefire or peace deal still seems well over the horizon.
Putin just showed Trump how little he needs him
Russia and Ukraine to 'immediately' start ceasefire talks, says Trump
Trump says he will call Putin to discuss stopping Ukraine 'bloodbath'
Rosenberg: Trump-Putin call seen as victory in Russia
Trump's frantic peace brokering hints at what he really wants
Russia and Ukraine to 'immediately' start ceasefire talks, says Trump
Trump says he will call Putin to discuss stopping Ukraine 'bloodbath'
Rosenberg: Trump-Putin call seen as victory in Russia
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俄、烏第一次直接和平協商 -- Tom Balmforth等
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Ukraine calls on allies to keep pressure on Russia after talks yield no ceasefire
Tom Balmforth/Can Sezer/Vladimir Soldatkin. 05/17/25
Summary
* Negotiators meet for less than two hours at Istanbul palace
* Agreement reached to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each
* Kyiv demands immediate ceasefire, Moscow wants more talks first
* Russia expresses satisfaction with talks
* Ukrainian source says Russian demands "non-starters"
ISTANBUL, May 16 (Reuters) - Ukraine rallied support from its Western allies on Friday after Kyiv and Moscow failed to agree to a ceasefire at their first direct talks in more than three years, with Russia presenting conditions that a Ukrainian source described as "non-starters".
Under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to end the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War Two, delegates from the warring countries met for the first time since March 2022, the month after Russia invaded its neighbour.
The talks in an Istanbul palace lasted well under two hours. Russia expressed satisfaction with the meeting and said it was ready to continue contacts. Both countries said they had agreed to trade 1,000 prisoners of war each in what would be the biggest such exchange yet.
But Kyiv, which wants the West to impose tighter sanctions unless Moscow accepts a proposal from Trump for a 30-day ceasefire, immediately began rallying its allies for tougher action.
As soon as the talks ended, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a phone call with Trump and the leaders of France, Germany and Poland, his spokesperson said.
Zelenskiy said robust sanctions should follow if Russia rejected a ceasefire.
Russia's demands were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed," a source in the Ukrainian delegation told Reuters.
The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Moscow had issued ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of its own territory in order to obtain a ceasefire "and other non-starters and non-constructive conditions".
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the Russian position was "clearly unacceptable" and that European leaders, Ukraine and the U.S. were "closely aligning" their responses.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was working on a new package of sanctions against Moscow.
Russia's lead negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, told reporters that his team had "taken note" of the Ukrainians' request for direct talks between Zelenskiy and President Vladimir Putin. Putin, after proposing the direct talks, had spurned a challenge from the Ukrainian leader to meet him personally in Istanbul.
"We have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire and spell it out in detail. After such a vision has been presented, we believe it would be appropriate, as also agreed, to continue our negotiations," Medinsky said.
RUSSIA WANTS MORE TALKS BEFORE CEASEFIRE
The sides mostly repeated their known positions. The Ukrainians wanted an immediate ceasefire and talks to ensue, while the Russians demanded more peace talks before agreeing on a ceasefire.
"If you want serious negotiations, you need to have guns silent," Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters.
Expectations for a major breakthrough, already low, were dented further on Thursday when Trump, winding up a Middle East tour, said there would be no movement without a meeting between himself and Putin.
Zelenskiy said Kyiv's top priority was "a full, unconditional and honest ceasefire... to stop the killing and create a solid basis for diplomacy".
Russia says it wants to end the war by diplomatic means and is ready to discuss a ceasefire. But it has raised a list of questions and concerns, saying Ukraine could use a pause to rest its forces, mobilise extra troops and acquire more Western weapons.
Ukraine and its allies accuse Putin of stalling, and say he is not serious about wanting peace.
CALM ATMOSPHERE
The negotiating teams sat opposite one another on either side of a U-shaped table, with the Russians dressed in suits while half of the Ukrainians wore military fatigues.
A Turkish official said afterwards the atmosphere had been calm during the talks. No concrete timetable or location had been agreed for the next round of talks, the official said, with both sides needing to debrief their leaders first.
The Ukrainian source said the Ukrainians spoke in their own language, through an interpreter, although Russian is widely spoken and understood in Ukraine.
A Ukrainian and a European source said Russia had rejected a Ukrainian request for U.S. representatives to be in the room.
Two sources familiar with the talks said Medinsky had said Russia was ready to keep fighting for as long as necessary, drawing a historical parallel with the wars of Tsar Peter the Great against Sweden that lasted 21 years in the early 1700s.
"We do not want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two, three — as long as you want," one of the sources quoted him as saying.
GRINDING ADVANCE
Russia said on Friday it had captured another village in its slow, grinding advance in eastern Ukraine. Minutes before the start of the Istanbul meeting, Ukrainian media reported an air alert and explosions in the city of Dnipro.
Russia says it sees the talks as a continuation of the negotiations that took place in the early weeks of the war in 2022, also in Istanbul.
But the terms under discussion then, when Ukraine was still reeling from Russia's initial invasion, would be deeply disadvantageous to Kyiv if they were repeated now. They included a demand by Moscow for large cuts to the size of Ukraine's military.
Zelenskiy's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said Russian attempts to align the new talks with the unsuccessful earlier negotiations would fail.
With Russian forces now in control of close to a fifth of Ukraine, Putin has held fast to his longstanding demands for Kyiv to cede territory, abandon its NATO membership ambitions and become a neutral country.
Ukraine rejects these terms as tantamount to capitulation, and is seeking guarantees of its future security from world powers, especially the United States.
Reporting by Can Sezer, Humeyra Pamuk, Tom Balmforth, Vladimir Soldatkin and Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul, Olena Harmash and Yuliia Dysa in Kyiv, Ece Toksabay and Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara, John Irish in Paris, Andrew Gray and Fatos Bytyci in Tirana and Reuters reporters in Moscow Writing by Mark Trevelyan Editing by Peter Graff, Alex Richardson and Frances Kerry
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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烏克蘭及歐洲盟國宣布願意無條件全面停火30天-M. Winsor等
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這是一記狠招；希望普丁見好就收。也希望習總順水推舟；借幫助減低歐洲戰火壓力的人情，在貿易戰上拉幫結派，組成統一戰線對付美國。
Ukraine and allies ready for 'full unconditional' 30-day ceasefire starting Monday, foreign minister says
The deal depends on if Russia agrees and effective monitoring is ensured.
MORGAN WINSOR, JON HAWORTH and NADINE EL-BAWAB, 05/11/25
Ukraine and its allies "are ready for a full unconditional ceasefire" with Russia "for at least 30 days" beginning on Monday, the Ukrainian foreign minister said Saturday.
"Ukraine and all allies are ready for a full unconditional ceasefire on land, air, and at sea for at least 30 days starting already on Monday. If Russia agrees and effective monitoring is ensured, a durable ceasefire and confidence-building measures can pave the way to peace negotiations," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in a post on X.
The European Union supports "the proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, the head of the EU's main executive body said Saturday, adding that the "ball is now in Russia's court."
"It must be implemented without preconditions to pave the way for meaningful peace negotiations," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a post on X. "We stand ready to maintain strong pressure on Russia and impose further biting sanctions in the event of a breach of a ceasefire."
The United Kingdom, France and Germany are saying they -- with U.S-backing -- are demanding Russia's Vladimir Putin accept a 30-day ceasefire or they will all together increase sanctions on Moscow and increase military support to Ukraine.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said "all of us here, together with US, are calling Putin out." If he is "serious" about peace then "he has a chance to show it now by extending the VE Day pause into a full, unconditional 30-day ceasefire," Starmer said.
Russia has "to think about" the ceasefire proposal put forth by Ukraine and supported by European leaders and Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN on Saturday.
"We need to think about it. These are new developments. We have our own position," he said.
Peskov added that Russia is "open to dialogue. We are open for attempts to have a settlement in Ukraine." He added, "Russia is quite resistant to any kinds of pressure."
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
Ukraine and allies ready for 'full unconditional' 30-day ceasefire starting Monday, foreign minister says originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
Kremlin insists arm deliveries to Ukraine stop before agreeing to ceasefire
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