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俄烏戰爭現況:開欄文
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烏克蘭的「春季攻勢」蛻化為「夏季攻勢」後,明顯地陷入膠著;沒有什麼值得寫封家書來匯報的進展。以下轉載兩篇「戰況評估」。我存檔備查;看官們請自行參考。 第一篇號稱是:分別從普丁和澤倫斯基兩位的角度,就(佔有)領土、心理、以及軍事三個層面所做的分析。 第二篇是布林肯國務卿的評估。我相信政治作用含量應該超標,可信度自然必須打個折扣。何況,自鮑爾之後,「美國國務卿會說謊」是討論政治的人不得不常記於心的教訓。
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烏克蘭天降神兵俄國空軍基地 - Alexander Smith
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這真可媲美電影情節: 1) 用卡車和木箱偷運117架無人機深入俄國境內2,500英里。 2) 木箱上蓋可用遙控方式移除。 3) 在談和會議前一天發動奇襲。 4) 同時攻擊5個空軍基地,摧毀1/3的俄國戰略飛彈轟炸機;造價70億美元。 它應該是前無古人的天大「下馬威」了!很顯然的,這整個行動有「內鬼」協助;或有層層俄國官員拿了錢替人辦事。 另請參閱這篇分析以及: * 'Operation Spiderweb’: How Ukraine destroyed over a third of Russian bombers * Russia's 'Pearl Harbor': What to know Ukraine's audacious drone strike * Confirmed Losses Of Russian Aircraft Mount After Ukrainian Drone Assault Ukraine's massive drone attack deep inside Russia lays bare Putin's vulnerability Though the knock-on effects are unclear, some military commentators have called the strike Russia's "Pearl Harbor." Hopes for direct peace talks, which resume Monday, remain low. Alexander Smith, NBC News, 06/02/25 It was a stunning, audacious attack whose widespread effects are only just becoming clear. Ukraine managed to smuggle 117 aerial drones on the backs of trucks that deposited them at the perimeter of four Russian air bases — one of them deep inside Siberia some 2,500 miles from Ukraine's borders, according to Ukrainian officials. While there are differing accounts on the extent of the ensuing damage of Sunday’s “Spiderweb” operation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 40 Russian aircraft — 34% of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers — were hit. Ukraine's security service, the SBU, put the estimated cost to the Kremlin at $7 billion. Some military commentators and pro-Russian bloggers have called it the country's "Pearl Harbor" — a reference to Japanese attack in 1941 that saw the United States enter World War II. It came Sunday, a day before the latest round of direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on Monday. There was little optimism for diplomatic progress even before the strike, with Ukraine sending its defense minister, Rustem Umerov, but Russia only dispatching the far more junior Putin aide, Vladimir Medinsky, to the Çırağan Palace in Istanbul. Those talks have now concluded for the day, Zelenskyy said at a news conference in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius just after midday local time (9 a.m. ET). The president said that the two sides exchanged documents and were preparing a fresh round of prisoner exchanges, extending the only tangible outcome from the two sides' first meeting last month. “I am waiting to hear minister Umerov’s full report,” Zelenskyy said. A far more likely outcome of Sunday's strike is Russia continuing to bomb Ukrainian civilians — this time under the pretext of retaliation, “even though in reality these strikes are planned long in advance,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow with the London-based think-tank Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia program. Less hard to quantify will be the huge blow to Vladimir Putin's pride, with Western analysts in agreement that this was a humiliation for the Russian president. “At a time when Putin seems to think that he is winning on the battlefield, this demonstrates that his forces are in fact very vulnerable,” said Sven Biscop, a director at the Egmont Institute, a think tank in Brussels. “This may not change the course of the war, but it does mean that every gain Russia makes will be at high cost.” He added it was “quite amazing” that “a significant part of their bomber force” could “be destroyed like that.” The strike took a year and a half to plan, according to Zelenskyy, and played out on the eve of the latest round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul. It's still unclear what impact the surgical strike will have on Monday's negotiations, hopes for which were already dim thanks to the deep divisions between the positions of Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine says it is ready to sign an unconditional 30-day ceasefire; Russia is essentially demanding Ukraine's surrender. Brokering the talks, President Donald Trump has shifted from the unambiguously pro-Ukrainian stance of his predecessor, President Joe Biden, and offered concessions to the Kremlin that have outraged many in the West. At the same time, he accused Putin last week of going “absolutely crazy” by continuing to launch regular attacks on Ukraine civilians. Ultimately, he has threatened to walk away from the peace talks if they do not yield the results he once promised he would achieve in just 24 hours. Indeed, overnight into Sunday, Russia launched some 500 attack drones into Ukraine, Zelenskyy said. The night next came 84 more, with at least 10 people killed and dozens more injured across the country, Ukraine's air force said. Other pro-Russia observers are calling for even more drastic measures. “We hope that the response will be the same as the U.S. response to the attack on Pearl Harbor, or even tougher,” one Russian military blogger, Roman Alekhin, said on the messaging app Telegram. Another pro-war Telegram channel, Dva Mayora, added that it was “a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine" — a threat often made by Putin since launching the invasion three years ago. “We can expect a great deal of sound and fury from Moscow,” Giles said. Russia “will be working hard on convincing the United States to attempt to rein Ukraine in, in order to prevent any further damage to Russia’s means of bombarding Ukrainian cities with long range missiles,” he added. “In a way, the more important question is how the United States reacts, and how eager it is to take Moscow‘s side and constrain Ukraine,” he said. Alexander Smith reported from London and Daryna Mayer reported from Kyiv. Alexander Smith is a senior reporter for NBC News Digital based in London. Daryna Mayer contributed.
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川、普電話對談無助於俄、烏和議 -- Anthony Zurcher
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Trump's call with Putin exposes shifting ground on Ukraine peace talks Anthony Zurcher, enior North America reporter, 05/20/2 Last year, Donald Trump promised he would end the Ukraine War in "24 hours". Last week, he said that it would not be resolved until he and Russian President Vladimir Putin could "get together" and hash it out in person. On Monday, the ground shifted again. After a two-hour phone call with Putin, he said that the conditions of a peace deal could only be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine – and maybe with the help of the Pope. Still, the US president has not lost his sense of optimism about the prospect for peace, posting on social media that the combatants would "immediately start" negotiations for a ceasefire and an end to the war. That sentiment was somewhat at odds with the Russian view. Putin only said that his country is ready to work with Ukraine to craft a "memorandum on a possible future peace agreement". Talks about memorandums and a "possible future" of peace hardly seems the kind of solid ground on which lasting deals can be quickly built. Putin again emphasised that any resolution would have to address the "root causes" of the war – which Russia has claimed in the past to be Ukraine's desire for closer ties to Europe. There is a possibility that Trump's latest take on the war in Ukraine could be a sign that the US will ultimately abandon the negotiating table. "Big egos involved, but I think something's going to happen," Trump said on Monday afternoon. "And if it doesn't, I'll just back away and they'll have to keep going." Such a move, however, comes with its own set of questions – and risks. If the US washes its hands of the war, as Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have also threatened, does it mean the US would also end any military and intelligence support for Ukraine? And if that is the case, then it may be a development that Russia, with its greater resources compared to a Ukraine cut off from American backing, would welcome. That prospect is enough to have Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky concerned. "It's crucial for all of us that the United States does not distance itself from the talks and the pursuit of peace," he said on Monday after the Trump-Putin call. Putting aside Monday's rhetoric, it appears that Ukraine and Russia are set to continue some kind of talks – and talking in any form is progress after nearly three years of war. Still to be determined is whether the Russian team will be more than the low-level delegation that travelled to Istanbul to meet with the Ukrainians last Friday. Trump is holding out the promise of reduced sanctions on Russia – and new trade deals and economic investment – as the enticement that will move Putin toward a peace agreement. He mentioned that again in his post-call comments. Not discussed, on the other hand, were any negative consequences, such as new sanctions on Russian banking and energy exports. The US president last month warned that he would not tolerate Putin "tapping me along" and said that Russia should not target civilian areas. But yesterday, Russia launched its largest drone strike of the war on Ukrainian cities, and Monday's call between the two world leaders makes clear that any ceasefire or peace deal still seems well over the horizon. Putin just showed Trump how little he needs him
Russia and Ukraine to 'immediately' start ceasefire talks, says Trump Trump says he will call Putin to discuss stopping Ukraine 'bloodbath' Rosenberg: Trump-Putin call seen as victory in Russia Trump's frantic peace brokering hints at what he really wants Russia and Ukraine to 'immediately' start ceasefire talks, says Trump Trump says he will call Putin to discuss stopping Ukraine 'bloodbath' Rosenberg: Trump-Putin call seen as victory in Russia
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俄、烏第一次直接和平協商 -- Tom Balmforth等
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Ukraine calls on allies to keep pressure on Russia after talks yield no ceasefire Tom Balmforth/Can Sezer/Vladimir Soldatkin. 05/17/25 Summary * Negotiators meet for less than two hours at Istanbul palace * Agreement reached to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each * Kyiv demands immediate ceasefire, Moscow wants more talks first * Russia expresses satisfaction with talks * Ukrainian source says Russian demands "non-starters" ISTANBUL, May 16 (Reuters) - Ukraine rallied support from its Western allies on Friday after Kyiv and Moscow failed to agree to a ceasefire at their first direct talks in more than three years, with Russia presenting conditions that a Ukrainian source described as "non-starters". Under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to end the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War Two, delegates from the warring countries met for the first time since March 2022, the month after Russia invaded its neighbour. The talks in an Istanbul palace lasted well under two hours. Russia expressed satisfaction with the meeting and said it was ready to continue contacts. Both countries said they had agreed to trade 1,000 prisoners of war each in what would be the biggest such exchange yet. But Kyiv, which wants the West to impose tighter sanctions unless Moscow accepts a proposal from Trump for a 30-day ceasefire, immediately began rallying its allies for tougher action. As soon as the talks ended, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held a phone call with Trump and the leaders of France, Germany and Poland, his spokesperson said. Zelenskiy said robust sanctions should follow if Russia rejected a ceasefire. Russia's demands were "detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed," a source in the Ukrainian delegation told Reuters. The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Moscow had issued ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of its own territory in order to obtain a ceasefire "and other non-starters and non-constructive conditions". British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the Russian position was "clearly unacceptable" and that European leaders, Ukraine and the U.S. were "closely aligning" their responses. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was working on a new package of sanctions against Moscow. Russia's lead negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, told reporters that his team had "taken note" of the Ukrainians' request for direct talks between Zelenskiy and President Vladimir Putin. Putin, after proposing the direct talks, had spurned a challenge from the Ukrainian leader to meet him personally in Istanbul. "We have agreed that each side will present its vision of a possible future ceasefire and spell it out in detail. After such a vision has been presented, we believe it would be appropriate, as also agreed, to continue our negotiations," Medinsky said. RUSSIA WANTS MORE TALKS BEFORE CEASEFIRE The sides mostly repeated their known positions. The Ukrainians wanted an immediate ceasefire and talks to ensue, while the Russians demanded more peace talks before agreeing on a ceasefire. "If you want serious negotiations, you need to have guns silent," Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi told reporters. Expectations for a major breakthrough, already low, were dented further on Thursday when Trump, winding up a Middle East tour, said there would be no movement without a meeting between himself and Putin. Zelenskiy said Kyiv's top priority was "a full, unconditional and honest ceasefire... to stop the killing and create a solid basis for diplomacy". Russia says it wants to end the war by diplomatic means and is ready to discuss a ceasefire. But it has raised a list of questions and concerns, saying Ukraine could use a pause to rest its forces, mobilise extra troops and acquire more Western weapons. Ukraine and its allies accuse Putin of stalling, and say he is not serious about wanting peace. CALM ATMOSPHERE The negotiating teams sat opposite one another on either side of a U-shaped table, with the Russians dressed in suits while half of the Ukrainians wore military fatigues. A Turkish official said afterwards the atmosphere had been calm during the talks. No concrete timetable or location had been agreed for the next round of talks, the official said, with both sides needing to debrief their leaders first. The Ukrainian source said the Ukrainians spoke in their own language, through an interpreter, although Russian is widely spoken and understood in Ukraine. A Ukrainian and a European source said Russia had rejected a Ukrainian request for U.S. representatives to be in the room. Two sources familiar with the talks said Medinsky had said Russia was ready to keep fighting for as long as necessary, drawing a historical parallel with the wars of Tsar Peter the Great against Sweden that lasted 21 years in the early 1700s. "We do not want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two, three — as long as you want," one of the sources quoted him as saying. GRINDING ADVANCE Russia said on Friday it had captured another village in its slow, grinding advance in eastern Ukraine. Minutes before the start of the Istanbul meeting, Ukrainian media reported an air alert and explosions in the city of Dnipro. Russia says it sees the talks as a continuation of the negotiations that took place in the early weeks of the war in 2022, also in Istanbul. But the terms under discussion then, when Ukraine was still reeling from Russia's initial invasion, would be deeply disadvantageous to Kyiv if they were repeated now. They included a demand by Moscow for large cuts to the size of Ukraine's military. Zelenskiy's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said Russian attempts to align the new talks with the unsuccessful earlier negotiations would fail. With Russian forces now in control of close to a fifth of Ukraine, Putin has held fast to his longstanding demands for Kyiv to cede territory, abandon its NATO membership ambitions and become a neutral country. Ukraine rejects these terms as tantamount to capitulation, and is seeking guarantees of its future security from world powers, especially the United States. Reporting by Can Sezer, Humeyra Pamuk, Tom Balmforth, Vladimir Soldatkin and Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul, Olena Harmash and Yuliia Dysa in Kyiv, Ece Toksabay and Tuvan Gumrukcu in Ankara, John Irish in Paris, Andrew Gray and Fatos Bytyci in Tirana and Reuters reporters in Moscow Writing by Mark Trevelyan Editing by Peter Graff, Alex Richardson and Frances Kerry Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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烏克蘭及歐洲盟國宣布願意無條件全面停火30天-M. Winsor等
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這是一記狠招;希望普丁見好就收。也希望習總順水推舟;借幫助減低歐洲戰火壓力的人情,在貿易戰上拉幫結派,組成統一戰線對付美國。 Ukraine and allies ready for 'full unconditional' 30-day ceasefire starting Monday, foreign minister says The deal depends on if Russia agrees and effective monitoring is ensured. MORGAN WINSOR, JON HAWORTH and NADINE EL-BAWAB, 05/11/25 Ukraine and its allies "are ready for a full unconditional ceasefire" with Russia "for at least 30 days" beginning on Monday, the Ukrainian foreign minister said Saturday. "Ukraine and all allies are ready for a full unconditional ceasefire on land, air, and at sea for at least 30 days starting already on Monday. If Russia agrees and effective monitoring is ensured, a durable ceasefire and confidence-building measures can pave the way to peace negotiations," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in a post on X. The European Union supports "the proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, the head of the EU's main executive body said Saturday, adding that the "ball is now in Russia's court." "It must be implemented without preconditions to pave the way for meaningful peace negotiations," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a post on X. "We stand ready to maintain strong pressure on Russia and impose further biting sanctions in the event of a breach of a ceasefire." The United Kingdom, France and Germany are saying they -- with U.S-backing -- are demanding Russia's Vladimir Putin accept a 30-day ceasefire or they will all together increase sanctions on Moscow and increase military support to Ukraine. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said "all of us here, together with US, are calling Putin out." If he is "serious" about peace then "he has a chance to show it now by extending the VE Day pause into a full, unconditional 30-day ceasefire," Starmer said. Russia has "to think about" the ceasefire proposal put forth by Ukraine and supported by European leaders and Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN on Saturday. "We need to think about it. These are new developments. We have our own position," he said. Peskov added that Russia is "open to dialogue. We are open for attempts to have a settlement in Ukraine." He added, "Russia is quite resistant to any kinds of pressure." This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. Ukraine and allies ready for 'full unconditional' 30-day ceasefire starting Monday, foreign minister says originally appeared on abcnews.go.com Kremlin insists arm deliveries to Ukraine stop before agreeing to ceasefire
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美國停止俄、烏議和努力 ---- Iona Cleave
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自以為不可一世後的知難而退抑或灰頭土臉? US withdraws from formal Ukraine peace negotiations State Department is changing ‘methodology’ of how it contributes to the talks and will no longer ‘fly around the world at the drop of a hat’ Iona Cleave, 05/02/25 The United States will no longer mediate peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia after Vladimir Putin refused to sign up to a ceasefire. The State Department said it is changing “the methodology of how we contribute” to the talks and will no longer “fly around the world at the drop of a hat” for meetings. “We will continue to help, but we will no longer fly around the world as mediators in meetings,” said Tammy Bruce, a spokesperson. She added that Kyiv and Moscow must now present “concrete” proposals for ending the war and should meet directly to resolve the conflict. Washington withdrawing from peace talks came soon after the US signed a minerals deal with Ukraine on more favourable terms for Kyiv, while Donald Trump green-lit his administration’s first round of weapons deliveries to the war-torn country. In recent days, Mr Trump has softened his stance towards Kyiv amid his growing frustrations towards Vladimir Putin for dragging his feet over attempts to secure a ceasefire. The Kremlin has expressed a willingness for talks with Kyiv, but this week rejected a US peace proposal because it did not grant international recognition of the territory its forces seized in Ukraine. Ukraine has repeatedly rejected any formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of its territory, saying that Putin should not be rewarded for his aggression. Moscow’s forces control roughly one fifth of Ukraine, which includes its resource-rich industrial heartlands to the east. US intelligence briefings overnight also suggested Mr Putin is now in a weakened position and has shifted his war goals to consolidate gains. JD Vance, the US vice-president, admitted on Thursday that the war will not end “any time soon”. Echoing the State Department’s comments, Mr Vance said that both sides “know what the other’s terms for peace are” and now it is “up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict”. “It’s not going anywhere … It’s not going to end any time soon,” he told Fox News. “For the Ukrainians, yes, of course they are angry that they were invaded, but are we going to continue to lose thousands and thousands of soldiers over a few miles of territory this or that way?” added Mr Vance, who has been critical of Kyiv throughout negotiations. On Wednesday, the US signed a long-contested rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give American companies preferential treatment in extracting Ukraine’s vast natural resources. Ukraine’s parliament is set to hold a vote on May 8 to ratify the accord, which is central to Kyiv’s efforts to mend ties with the White House that had frayed since Mr Trump returned to office. Volodymyr Zelensky hailed it as a “truly equal” agreement, which is believed to have been far more favourable to Kyiv than earlier demands, and came amid Mr Trump’s recent softening towards Ukraine. Soon after the deal was signed, the US president approved a fresh delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the first of its kind since Mr Trump took office. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, meanwhile told Americans that the war in Ukraine “is not our war”. Echoing the vice-president’s statements, he said that without a breakthrough, “the president is going to have to make a decision about how much more time we’re going to dedicate to this”. “I think we know where Ukraine is, and we know where Russia is right now ... They’re closer, but they’re still far apart,” he added in a separate interview with Fox News. Russia’s frozen funds Ukraine agreed immediately to the US’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire last month, while Moscow has stalled in what Kyiv’s allies warn is an attempt to improve Russia’s battlefield position. On Friday, Europe announced it planned to seize and redistribute about €3 billion (£2.5 billion) of Russia’s frozen funds. The money would be used to compensate Western investors after Moscow seized cash held in Russia in recent months, three people told Reuters, escalating attempts by both sides to recoup billions in funds affected by the war. Euroclear will redistribute €3 billion from a pool of €10 billion in cash belonging to Russian entities and individuals hit by the EU sanctions that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The EU changed its sanctions regime late last year, allowing a disbursement to Western investors. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
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《俄、烏和平方案:歐洲版》小評
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相較於美、俄一廂情願式的和平構想,歐洲版的俄、烏和平方案可說針鋒相對、南轅北轍(請見本欄上一篇)。一言以蔽之,英國和北約領頭會員國領袖對川普的自說自話嗤之以鼻。完全沒有把他這位自以為的「西方盟國龍頭老大」放在眼裏。 即使我們計入「漫天要價」的性質,這個方案顯示出:以英、法、德為首歐洲各國領袖「不惜一戰」的底氣;雖然說不上咄咄逼人,輸人不輸陣的態勢展露無遺。普丁就算捉襟見肘、撐不下去,基於面子和國內政情考量,他至少三個月之內不會接受這個方案。川普本人大概要等到在貿易戰中落荒而逃後,才不得不為了拉抬三、五個民調點數而對普丁施壓,逼他讓步。再加上冬天將使戰局膠著,以及其它突發狀況等等因素。保守估計,明年春天我們可能才有機會看到各方坐上會議桌。 川普政府在「俄、烏議和」上毫無進展,移民政策被法院打臉,貿易戰陷入騎虎難下窘境等等,都不斷凸顯川普的三個致命弱點: 1) 他過份高估了美國在國際事務上的影響力。 2) 他說話不經過大腦。 3) 他團隊的素質太低;閣員和高級顧問們一個個不是缺乏常識和判斷力,就是唯唯諾諾,不敢拂逆他異想天開的政策。 千呼萬喚之後,「後美國時代」終於登場了(該欄2024/12/31)。 相關閱讀: Trump’s 100 Days of Failure in Ukraine Trump risks leaving behind a legacy of failure in Ukraine
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俄、烏和平方案:歐洲版 – 路透社
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Ukrainian and European peace deal counterproposals to US at talks in London Reuters, 04/25/25 LONDON (Reuters) - Reuters has seen the text of a set of proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine that were given to the U.S. side on Wednesday by Ukrainian and European officials at talks in London. The text of the document is published in full with no changes. OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Russia-Ukraine Deal Framework Ceasefire: * Commit to a full and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea. * Both sides immediately enter into negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the US and European countries. This is in parallel to preparation of the agenda and modalities for a full peace deal. * Ceasefire monitoring, led by the US and supported by third countries. * Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (the principle of "all for all"). Russia must release all civilian prisoners. Security guarantees for Ukraine: * Ukraine receives robust security guarantees including from the US (Article 5-like agreement), while there is no consensus among Allies on NATO membership. * No restrictions on the Ukrainian Defense Forces. * The guarantor states will be an ad hoc group of European countries and willing non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine. * Ukraine pursues accession to the EU. Territory: * Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved aftera full and unconditional ceasefire. * Territorial negotiations start from the basis of the line of control. * Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement, and also the Kakhovka Dam * Ukraine enjoys unhindered passages on the Dnieper River and control of the Kinburn Spit. Economics: * US and Ukraine implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement. * Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine. * US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback). (Reporting by Reuters, Editing by Timothy Heritage)
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俄國短暫停火策略分析 – N. P. Walsh
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The real strategy behind Russia’s sudden truce announcement Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, 04/20/25 The timing, the brevity, the sudden, unilateral nature of it all. If Ukraine’s allies needed proof of Moscow’s wild cynicism when it comes to peace, the announcement of an immediate truce for Easter provided just that. It came mere hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his boss President Donald Trump said they would need in the coming days an urgent sign that the Kremlin was serious about peace. For Russia’s proponents, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Saturday looked like a nod to Trump – but the sudden declaration is so riddled with practical flaws, before it even gets out of the box, that it is likely to be simply used by Putin to support his false notion Kyiv does not want his war to stop. It will be a logistical nightmare for Ukraine’s forces to suddenly, immediately stop fighting at Putin’s behest. Some frontline positions may be in the middle of fierce clashes when this order comes through, and a cessation of this nature likely requires days of preparation and readiness. Misinformation is bound to confuse troops about the truce’s implementation, how to report or respond to violations, and even what to do when it comes to an end. It is possible this moment will prove a rare sign that both sides can stop violence for a short period. But it is significantly more likely they will both use violations and confusion to show their opponent cannot be trusted. As of Saturday evening local time, Ukrainian officials said Russian strikes had continued in frontline areas. The ongoing 30-day truce limited to energy infrastructure was born in conditions of complete chaos. The White House announced that “energy and infrastructure” were covered, the Kremlin said they’d immediately stopped attacks on “energy infrastructure,” and Ukraine said the truce started a week later than the Kremlin did. Its execution has been equally mired in mistrust and accusations of breaches. Moscow made a similar unilateral declaration in January 2023, calling for a day of peace to allow Orthodox Christians to observe Christmas – a move that Kyiv and Western leaders dismissed at the time as a strategic pause for military purposes. A genuine truce requires negotiation with your opponent, and preparations for it to take hold. The sudden rush of this seems designed entirely to placate White House demands for some sign that Russia is willing to stop fighting. It will likely feed Trump’s at-times pro-Moscow framing of the conflict. It may also cause complexities for Ukraine when they are inevitably accused of violating what Washington may consider to be a goodwill gesture by Moscow. Ultimately, this brief, likely theoretical, probably rhetorical and entirely unilateral stop to a three-year war is likely to do more damage to the role of diplomacy in the coming months than it does to support it. For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at CNN.com
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俄國宣佈短暫停火-K. Gak等
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Putin declares brief ‘Easter truce’ but Ukraine says Russian attacks continue Kosta Gak/Catherine Nicholls/Victoria Butenko/Ivana Kottasová, CNN, 04/20/25 CNN — Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a brief Easter ceasefire in his war with Ukraine, a declaration met with skepticism in Kyiv as the war enters a crucial phase and US-led negotiations stall. Putin said “all hostilities” would halt between 6 p.m. Moscow time on Saturday (11 a.m. ET) and midnight on Monday (5 p.m. Sunday ET). “We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow our example,” he said, adding that the truce would help Russia determine how sincere Kyiv is about wanting to reach a ceasefire. However, just hours after the announcement, Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of continuing to fight. “According to the report of the commander-in-chief, Russian assault operations continue in some parts of the front line and Russian artillery continues to fire,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Saturday night. Kyiv has responded to the truce declaration with skepticism, with Zelensky pointing out that Putin still has not agreed to a US-led proposal for 30 days of ceasefire. “If Russia is now suddenly ready to actually join the format of complete and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act in a mirror image, as it will on the Russian side. Silence in response to silence, strikes in defense of strikes,” Zelensky said, calling for the Easter truce to be extended to 30 days. “This will show Russia’s true intentions, because 30 hours is enough for headlines, but not for real confidence-building measures. Thirty days can give peace a chance,” he said. The timing of the announcement also sparked some questions – coming one day after the Trump administration indicated it was running out of patience with Russia and Ukraine, and just hours after Russia’s Defense Ministry announced its forces had pushed Ukrainian troops from one of their last remaining footholds in Russia’s Kursk region, where the Ukrainians staged a surprise incursion last year. “Unfortunately, we have had a long history of (Putin’s) statements not matching his actions… Russia can agree at any time to the proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, which has been on the table since March,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X. Hours after declaring the ceasefire, Putin attended an Orthodox Easter service at Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Savior, alongside the city’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin and other worshippers, according to Reuters. Putin could be seen holding a lit red candle and crossing himself as Patriarch Kirill led the service. Kirill is the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, a faithful backer of the Russian leader and an advocate for the war in Ukraine. Attacks continue, say Ukrainian officials Zelensky said late Saturday local time that Putin’s Easter truce has not extended to Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, where Ukrainian troops have been active. “Hostilities continue, and Russian strikes persist. Russian artillery can still be heard in certain directions of the front, regardless of the Russian leader’s promise of silence,” Zelensky said in a post on X. “Russian drones are in use. In some areas, the situation has become quieter.” The head of Kherson’s regional military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, said on Saturday evening local time that a high-rise building in the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson had caught fire after being struck by drones. Russian drones also attacked the villages of Urozhayne and Stanislav, he said. “The shelling continues and civilians are under attack again,” Prokudin said. “This is another confirmation that Russia has nothing sacred.” CNN has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment. Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv and several other regions soon after Putin’s announcement, with the city’s military administration warning of a Russian drone attack. Officials urged people not to leave shelters until the alert was over. Andrii Kovalenko, who heads the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, a government body, said on Telegram at 7 p.m. local time that “the Russians continue to fire in all directions.” Moscow and Kyiv are currently on the same time. Ukrainian troops at three separate locations along the front lines told CNN that as of 8 p.m. Saturday, there was no sign of fighting easing. There have been no pauses in the conflict since Russia launched its unprovoked full-scale invasion in February 2022. The sudden nature of Putin’s announcement and the short duration of the proposed truce gave Kyiv little room to prepare or maneuver. Many Ukrainian troops participating in ongoing assaults or reconnaissance missions would have been in position already, as any moves are typically made during the night due to the threat from Russian troops. Ukraine has previously been skeptical about such temporary pauses in conflict, having rejected a temporary ceasefire to coincide with the Orthodox Christmas holiday in January 2023, believing that Russia had ulterior motives in calling for a stop to the fighting, such as using the pause to bring in more troops. A key moment Putin’s announcement comes at a pivotal time for the war. As well as in Kursk, fighting continues along the eastern front line, which has barely moved in the past three years as neither side has been able to make significant gains. While Ukraine has recently managed to push Russian troops back from areas around Toretsk, Russia has been inching forward near Kupyansk, Lyman and Kurakhove, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor. Separately, the two sides conducted one of the largest prisoner exchanges of the conflict on Saturday. According to Zelensky, 277 captured Ukrainian soldiers were returned home. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had swapped 246 captured Ukrainian soldiers for the same number of Russian troops, and that as a “gesture of good will” Russia also exchanged 31 wounded Ukrainian troops for 15 wounded Russian servicemen. As with previous exchanges, the swap was mediated by the United Arab Emirates.
At the same time, US-led peace efforts are stuttering as Moscow continues to stall, having previously rejected the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. On Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US was ready to “move on” within days from efforts to bring peace to Ukraine, if there were no tangible signs of progress. 相關報導: Trump administration ready to recognize Russian control of Crimea as part of framework to end Ukraine war, source says
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《俄、烏分別與美國特使商談局部停火事宜》小評
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俄、烏雙方都師老兵疲;局部(能源設施)停火乃至全面休戰不是沒有可能(請見本欄上一篇報導)。但是烏克蘭舉國犧牲慘重,加上事關歐洲未來集體安全議題,澤倫斯基(和北約諸國領袖)必然會堅持:「『全面』停火協定」有實質保障外,還不能讓普丁找任何空子來鑽。另一方面,俄國雖然是強弩之末,我懷疑普丁具有「適可而止」的智慧;何況,他這號人物免不了恃寵而驕的小人之心。 總之,我衷心期望:「局部停火」是俄、烏衝突走向「正義和平」完美句點的第一步。但是,即使啟動了正式和談的過程,「停停打打,打打停停」將是今後至少六個月的戲碼。 如果川普能夠圓滿結束這場浩劫,我一定到廟裏替他燒柱高香,改稱他川聖。
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