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俄烏戰爭現況:開欄文
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亓官先生
胡卜凱

烏克蘭的春季攻勢」蛻化為「夏季攻勢」後,明顯地陷入膠著;沒有什麼值得寫封家書來匯報的進展。以下轉載兩篇「戰況評估」。我存檔備查;看官們請自行參考。

第一篇號稱是分別從普丁和澤倫斯基兩位的角度(佔有)領土心理、以及軍事三個層面所做的分析。

第二篇是布林肯國務卿的評估。我相信政治作用含量應該超標,可信度自然必須打個折扣。何況,自鮑爾之後,「美國國務卿會說謊」是討論政治的人不得不常記於心的教訓。

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美國停止俄、烏議和努力 ---- Iona Cleave
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自以為不可一世後的知難而退抑或灰頭土臉

US withdraws from formal Ukraine peace negotiations

State Department is changing ‘methodology’ of how it contributes to the talks and will no longer ‘fly around the world at the drop of a hat’

Iona Cleave, 05/02/25

The United States will no longer mediate peace negotiations between 
Ukraine and Russia after Vladimir Putin refused to sign up to a ceasefire.

The State Department said it is changing “the methodology of how we contribute” to the talks and will no longer “fly around the world at the drop of a hat” for meetings.

“We will continue to help, but we will no longer fly around the world as mediators in meetings,” said Tammy Bruce, a spokesperson.

She added that Kyiv and Moscow must now present “concrete” proposals for ending 
the war and should meet directly to resolve the conflict.

Washington withdrawing from peace talks came soon after 
the US signed a minerals deal with Ukraine on more favourable terms for Kyiv, while Donald Trump green-lit his administration’s first round of weapons deliveries to the war-torn country.

In recent days, Mr Trump has softened his stance towards Kyiv amid his 
growing frustrations towards Vladimir Putin for dragging his feet over attempts to secure a ceasefire.

The Kremlin has expressed a willingness for talks with Kyiv, but this week 
rejected a US peace proposal because it did not grant international recognition of the territory its forces seized in Ukraine.

Ukraine has repeatedly rejected any formal recognition of Russia’s annexation of its territory, saying that Putin should not be rewarded for his aggression. Moscow’s forces control roughly 
one fifth of Ukraine, which includes its resource-rich industrial heartlands to the east.

US intelligence briefings overnight also suggested Mr Putin is now in a weakened position and has shifted his war goals to consolidate gains.

JD Vance, the US vice-president, admitted on Thursday that the war will not end “any time soon”.

Echoing the State Department’s comments, Mr Vance said that both sides “know what the other’s terms for peace are” and now it is “up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict”.

“It’s not going anywhere … It’s not going to end any time soon,” he told Fox News.

“For the Ukrainians, yes, of course they are angry that they were invaded, but are we going to continue to lose thousands and thousands of soldiers over a few miles of territory this or that way?” added Mr Vance, who has been critical of Kyiv throughout negotiations.

On Wednesday, the US signed a long-contested rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, which will give American companies preferential treatment in extracting Ukraine’s vast natural resources.

Ukraine’s parliament is set to hold a vote on May 8 to ratify the accord, which is central to Kyiv’s efforts to mend ties with the White House that had frayed since Mr Trump returned to office.

Volodymyr Zelensky hailed it as a “truly equal” agreement, which is believed to have been far more favourable to Kyiv than earlier demands, and came amid Mr Trump’s recent 
softening towards Ukraine.

Soon after the deal was signed, the US president approved a fresh delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the first of its kind since Mr Trump took office.

Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, meanwhile told Americans that the war in Ukraine “is not our war”.

Echoing the vice-president’s statements, he said that without a breakthrough, “the president is going to have to make a decision about how much more time we’re going to dedicate to this”.

“I think we know where Ukraine is, and we know where Russia is right now ... They’re closer, but they’re still far apart,” he added in a separate interview with Fox News.

Russia’s frozen funds

Ukraine agreed immediately to the US’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire last month, while Moscow has stalled in what Kyiv’s allies warn is an attempt to improve Russia’s battlefield position.

On Friday, Europe announced it planned to seize and redistribute about €3 billion (£2.5 billion) of Russia’s frozen funds.

The money would be used to compensate Western investors after Moscow seized cash held in Russia in recent months, three people told Reuters, escalating attempts by both sides to recoup billions in funds affected by the war.

Euroclear will redistribute €3 billion from a pool of €10 billion in cash belonging to Russian entities and individuals hit by the EU sanctions that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

The EU changed its sanctions regime late last year, allowing a disbursement to Western investors.


Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.

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《俄、烏和平方案:歐洲版》小評
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相較於美、俄一廂情願式的和平構想,歐洲版的俄、烏和平方案可說針鋒相對、南轅北轍(請見本欄上一篇)。一言以蔽之,英國和北約領頭會員國領袖對川普的自說自話嗤之以鼻。完全沒有把他這位自以為的「西方盟國龍頭老大」放在眼裏。

即使我們計入「漫天要價」的性質,這個方案顯示出以英、法、德為首歐洲各國領袖「不惜一戰」的底氣雖然說不上咄咄逼人,輸人不輸陣的態勢展露無遺。普丁就算捉襟見肘、撐不下去,基於面子和國內政情考量,他至少三個月之內不會接受這個方案。川普本人大概要等到在貿易戰中落荒而逃後,才不得不為了拉抬三、五個民調點數而對普丁施壓,逼他讓步。再加上冬天將使戰局膠著,以及其它突發狀況等等因素。保守估計,明年春天我們可能才有機會看到各方坐上會議桌。

川普政府在「俄、烏議和」上毫無進展,移民政策被法院打臉,貿易戰陷入騎虎難下窘境等等,都不斷凸顯川普的三個致命弱點:

1) 
他過份高估了美國在國際事務上的影響力。
2) 
他說話不經過大腦。
3) 
他團隊的素質太低;閣員和高級顧問們一個個不是缺乏常識和判斷力,就是唯唯諾諾,不敢拂逆他異想天開的政策。

千呼萬喚之後,「後美國時代
」終於登場了(該欄2024/12/31)


相關閱讀

Trump’s 100 Days of Failure in Ukraine
Trump risks leaving behind a legacy of failure in Ukraine

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俄、烏和平方案:歐洲版 – 路透社
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Ukrainian and European peace deal counterproposals to US at talks in London

Reuters, 04/25/25

LONDON (Reuters) - Reuters has seen the text of a set of proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine that were given to the U.S. side on Wednesday by Ukrainian and European officials at talks in London.

The text of the document is published in full with no changes.

OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE

Russia-Ukraine Deal Framework

Ceasefire:

* Commit to a full and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land and at sea.
* Both sides immediately enter into negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the US and European countries. This is in parallel to preparation of the agenda and modalities for a full peace deal.
* Ceasefire monitoring, led by the US and supported by third countries.
* Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (the principle of "all for all"). Russia must release all civilian prisoners.

Security guarantees for Ukraine:

* Ukraine receives robust security guarantees including from the US (Article 5-like agreement), while there is no consensus among Allies on NATO membership.
* No restrictions on the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
* The guarantor states will be an ad hoc group of European countries and willing non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, weapons and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.
* Ukraine pursues accession to the EU.

Territory:

* Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved aftera full and unconditional ceasefire.
* Territorial negotiations start from the basis of the line of control.
* Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement, and also the Kakhovka Dam
* Ukraine enjoys unhindered passages on the Dnieper River and control of the Kinburn Spit.

Economics:

* US and Ukraine implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
* Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
* US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback).


(Reporting by Reuters, Editing by Timothy Heritage)


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俄國短暫停火策略分析 – N. P. Walsh
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The real strategy behind Russia’s sudden truce announcement

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, 04/20/25

The timing, the brevity, the sudden, unilateral nature of it all. If Ukraine’s allies needed proof of Moscow’s wild cynicism when it comes to peace, 
the announcement of an immediate truce for Easter provided just that.

It came mere hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his boss President Donald Trump said they would need in the coming days an urgent sign that the Kremlin was serious about peace.

For Russia’s proponents, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Saturday looked like a nod to Trump – but the sudden declaration is so riddled with practical flaws, before it even gets out of the box, that it is likely to be simply used by Putin to support his false notion Kyiv does not want his war to stop.

It will be a logistical nightmare for Ukraine’s forces to suddenly, immediately stop fighting at Putin’s behest. Some frontline positions may be in the middle of fierce clashes when this order comes through, and a cessation of this nature likely requires days of preparation and readiness.

Misinformation is bound to confuse troops about the truce’s implementation, how to report or respond to violations, and even what to do when it comes to an end.

It is possible this moment will prove a rare sign that both sides can stop violence for a short period. But it is significantly more likely they will both use violations and confusion to show their opponent cannot be trusted. As of Saturday evening local time, Ukrainian officials said Russian strikes had continued in frontline areas.

The ongoing 30-day truce limited to energy infrastructure was born in conditions of complete chaos. The White House announced that “energy and infrastructure” were covered, the Kremlin said they’d immediately stopped attacks on “energy infrastructure,” and Ukraine said the truce started a week later than the Kremlin did. Its execution has been equally mired in mistrust and accusations of breaches.

Moscow made a similar unilateral declaration in January 2023, calling for a day of peace to allow Orthodox Christians to observe Christmas – a move that Kyiv and Western leaders 
dismissed at the time as a strategic pause for military purposes.

A genuine truce requires negotiation with your opponent, and preparations for it to take hold. The sudden rush of this seems designed entirely to placate White House demands for some sign that Russia is willing to stop fighting. It will likely feed Trump’s at-times pro-Moscow framing of the conflict. It may also cause complexities for Ukraine when they are inevitably accused of violating what Washington may consider to be a goodwill gesture by Moscow.

Ultimately, this brief, likely theoretical, probably rhetorical and entirely unilateral stop to a three-year war is likely to do more damage to the role of diplomacy in the coming months than it does to support it.


For more CNN news and newsletters create an account at 
CNN.com

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俄國宣佈短暫停火-K. Gak等
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Putin declares brief ‘Easter truce’ but Ukraine says Russian attacks continue

Kosta Gak/Catherine Nicholls/Victoria Butenko/Ivana Kottasová, CNN, 04/20/25

CNN — Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a brief Easter ceasefire in his war with Ukraine, a declaration met with skepticism in Kyiv as the war enters a crucial phase and US-led negotiations stall.

Putin said “all hostilities” would halt between 6 p.m. Moscow time on Saturday (11 a.m. ET) and midnight on Monday (5 p.m. Sunday ET).

“We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow our example,” he said, adding that the truce would help Russia determine how sincere Kyiv is about wanting to reach a ceasefire.

However, just hours after the announcement, Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of continuing to fight. “According to the report of the commander-in-chief, Russian assault operations continue in some parts of the front line and Russian artillery continues to fire,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address on Saturday night.

Kyiv has responded to the truce declaration with skepticism, with Zelensky pointing out that Putin still has not agreed to a US-led proposal for 30 days of ceasefire.

“If Russia is now suddenly ready to actually join the format of complete and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act in a mirror image, as it will on the Russian side. Silence in response to silence, strikes in defense of strikes,” Zelensky said, calling for the Easter truce to be extended to 30 days.

“This will show Russia’s true intentions, because 30 hours is enough for headlines, but not for real confidence-building measures. Thirty days can give peace a chance,” he said.

The timing of the announcement also sparked some questions – coming one day after the Trump administration indicated it was running out of patience with Russia and Ukraine, and just hours after Russia’s Defense Ministry announced its forces had pushed Ukrainian troops from one of their last remaining footholds in Russia’s Kursk region, where the Ukrainians staged a surprise incursion last year.

“Unfortunately, we have had a long history of (Putin’s) statements not matching his actions… Russia can agree at any time to the proposal for a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, which has been on the table since March,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on X.

Hours after declaring the ceasefire, Putin attended an Orthodox Easter service at Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Savior, alongside the city’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin and other worshippers, according to Reuters.

Putin could be seen holding a lit red candle and crossing himself as Patriarch Kirill led the service. Kirill is the head of Russia’s Orthodox Church, a faithful backer of the Russian leader and an advocate for the war in Ukraine.

Attacks continue, say Ukrainian officials

Zelensky said late Saturday local time that Putin’s Easter truce has not extended to Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, where Ukrainian troops have been active.

“Hostilities continue, and Russian strikes persist. Russian artillery can still be heard in certain directions of the front, regardless of the Russian leader’s promise of silence,” Zelensky said in a post on X. “Russian drones are in use. In some areas, the situation has become quieter.”

The head of Kherson’s regional military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, said on Saturday evening local time that a high-rise building in the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson had caught fire after being struck by drones. Russian drones also attacked the villages of Urozhayne and Stanislav, he said.

“The shelling continues and civilians are under attack again,” Prokudin said. “This is another confirmation that Russia has nothing sacred.”

CNN has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment.

Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv and several other regions soon after Putin’s announcement, with the city’s military administration warning of a Russian drone attack. Officials urged people not to leave shelters until the alert was over.

Andrii Kovalenko, who heads the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, a government body, said on Telegram at 7 p.m. local time that “the Russians continue to fire in all directions.” Moscow and Kyiv are currently on the same time.

Ukrainian troops at three separate locations along the front lines told CNN that as of 8 p.m. Saturday, there was no sign of fighting easing.

There have been no pauses in the conflict since Russia launched its unprovoked full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The sudden nature of Putin’s announcement and the short duration of the proposed truce gave Kyiv little room to prepare or maneuver. Many Ukrainian troops participating in ongoing assaults or reconnaissance missions would have been in position already, as any moves are typically made during the night due to the threat from Russian troops.

Ukraine has previously been skeptical about such temporary pauses in conflict, having rejected a temporary ceasefire to coincide with the Orthodox Christmas holiday in January 2023, believing that Russia had ulterior motives in calling for a stop to the fighting, such as using the pause to bring in more troops.

A key moment

Putin’s announcement comes at a pivotal time for the war.

As well as in Kursk, fighting continues along the eastern front line, which has barely moved in the past three years as neither side has been able to make significant gains.

While Ukraine has recently managed to push Russian troops back from areas around Toretsk, Russia has been inching forward near Kupyansk, Lyman and Kurakhove, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor.

Separately, the two sides conducted one of the largest prisoner exchanges of the conflict on Saturday.

According to Zelensky, 277 captured Ukrainian soldiers were returned home. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had swapped 246 captured Ukrainian soldiers for the same number of Russian troops, and that as a “gesture of good will” Russia also exchanged 31 wounded Ukrainian troops for 15 wounded Russian servicemen.

As with previous exchanges, the swap was mediated by the United Arab Emirates.

At the same time, US-led peace efforts are stuttering as Moscow continues to stall, having previously rejected the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

On Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US was ready to “move on” within days from efforts to bring peace to Ukraine, if there were no tangible signs of progress.


相關報導

Trump administration ready to recognize Russian control of Crimea as part of framework to end Ukraine war, source says

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《俄、烏分別與美國特使商談局部停火事宜》小評
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烏雙方都師老兵疲局部(能源設施)停火乃至全面休戰不是沒有可能(請見本欄上一篇報導)。但是烏克蘭舉國犧牲慘重,加上事關歐洲未來集體安全議題,澤倫斯基(和北約諸國領袖)必然會堅持:「『全面停火協定有實質保障外,還不能讓普丁找任何空子來鑽。另一方面,國雖然是強弩之末,我懷疑普丁具有「適可而止的智慧;何況,他這號人物免不了恃寵而驕的小人之心。

總之,我衷心期望:「局部停火」是烏衝突走向「正義和平」完美句點的第一步。但是,即使啟動了正式和談的過程,「停停打打,打打停停」將是今後至少六個月的戲碼。

如果川普能夠圓滿結束這場浩劫,我一定到廟裏替他燒柱高香,改稱他川聖。

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俄、烏分別與美國特使商談局部停火事宜 – I. Nechepurenko/C. Méheut
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Russia and Ukraine Hold U.S.-Mediated Talks: What to Know

American envoys met with Ukrainian officials on Sunday and were set to meet with Russian officials on Monday. The discussions were expected to focus on halting attacks on energy facilities.

Ivan Nechepurenko and Constant Méheut, 03/23/25

Ivan Nechepurenko reported from Tbilisi, Georgia, and Constant Méheut from Kyiv, Ukraine.

The United States is holding separate talks with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia to iron out details of a possible limited cease-fire in what could be a crucial step toward a full cessation of hostilities in the war.

Russia and Ukraine both agreed this past week to halt strikes on energy infrastructure temporarily, but how and when to implement that partial truce are questions that have yet to be decided 
as attacks persist.

The talks — held in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, with American representatives mediating — are expected to focus on hammering out those details and on safety for shipping in the Black Sea.

Ukraine was the first to hold talks with the United States, on Sunday. It will be followed by Russia on Monday. 
Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainian defense minister leading his country’s delegation, said the talks on Sunday had begun around 5:30 p.m. Kyiv time and ended some five hours later. “The discussion was productive and focused — we addressed key points including energy,” he wrote on social media, without offering details.

A Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said the Ukrainian delegation might hold additional discussions with U.S. officials on Monday, depending on progress.

Steve Witkoff, whom President Trump has tapped to be his 
personal envoy to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, has said that the ultimate goal of the talks is a 30-day full cease-fire that would allow time for negotiations on a permanent truce.

But the path toward such a truce has been shaky. Moscow continues to insist on 
maximalist positions, including about asserting territorial control and ensuring Ukraine never joins NATO. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly said that it will not concede to the Kremlin’s demands and accused Mr. Putin of stalling for time.

Unlike 
previous cease-fire discussions, which involved top government officials from all sides, this new round will focus on technical matters and will mostly involve diplomats and government advisers. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, said that the American delegation included some of his own staff, along with Michael Anton, policy planning director at the State Department; and aides to the national security adviser, Michael Waltz.

The Russian delegation

Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said on Friday that Mr. Putin had personally selected negotiators for the talks, a delegation led by Grigory B. Karasin, a senior Russian diplomat and lawmaker; and Sergey O. Beseda, an adviser to the head of the Federal Security Service, or F.S.B., the country’s domestic intelligence agency.

While Mr. Karasin has been involved in sensitive foreign policy talks before, Mr. Beseda’s choice came as a surprise to some.

An influential spymaster, Mr. Beseda was head of the F.S.B. department responsible for international intelligence operations. He has been 
described by Russian news outlets as one of the main sources of intelligence that convinced Mr. Putin in 2022 that there was pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine and that a brisk invasion could easily dismantle the government in Kyiv.

In 2023, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, called Mr. Beseda a “very problematic person” for Ukraine who “has done a lot of evil.”

The Ukrainian delegation

Mr. Umerov, Ukraine’s defense minister, led the negotiations in Riyadh. He was joined by Pavlo Palisa, a top military adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Both Mr. Umerov and Mr. Palisa are members of the Ukrainian delegation for peace talks that Mr. Zelensky appointed this month, a group led by his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Mr. Umerov was a key negotiator for Ukraine in peace talks with Russian diplomats in the early months of the war.

Given the technical nature of the talks on energy and shipping, Ukraine also sent seasoned diplomats and civil servants as part of its delegation. 
Ukrinform, the state news agency, said the team included deputy foreign and energy ministers, along with Mr. Zelensky’s top diplomatic adviser.

Mr. Zelensky said Ukraine had prepared a list of infrastructure objects that could be included in the cease-fire agreement. He added that a third party would have to monitor the cease-fire and suggested that the United States could do so.

While Russia and Ukraine may find common ground in talks about energy and shipping, both have laid out conditions for a complete cessation of hostilities that appear irreconcilable — a sign of the steep challenges ahead in any broader peace negotiations.

Moscow’s position

This past week, during a 
telephone conversation with Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin said that Russia would agree to a temporary truce only if Ukraine stopped mobilizing soldiers, training troops or importing weapons for the duration of any pause in fighting.

Mr. Putin also demanded the complete halt of foreign military aid and intelligence to Kyiv, calling it “the key condition for preventing an escalation of the conflict and making progress toward its resolution through political and diplomatic means,” 
according to the Kremlin’s readout of the call.

The White House said that military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine 
would continue despite the Kremlin’s demands. But the Trump administration has been less clear on Moscow’s calls for territorial concessions and at times even appeared to align with the Kremlin’s stance.

Mr. Witkoff 
echoed a Kremlin talking point on Sunday when he tried to legitimize the staged referendums that the Russian occupation forces held in parts of Ukraine to justify the annexation of those territories taken by military force. “There is a view within the country of Russia that these are Russian territories,” Mr. Witkoff told Fox News. “There are referendums within these territories that justify these actions.” Those referendums were widely denounced as fraudulent and illegal by the international community.

Fundamentally, Russia’s position regarding the conflict has remained the same. The Kremlin says it wants to “eliminate the root causes of the crisis” — essentially demanding that Ukraine capitulate. That would mean Kyiv’s recognizing Russia’s territorial gains, declaring neutrality and agreeing to shrink its military, which would most likely leave Ukraine vulnerable to another invasion.

Kyiv’s position

Ukraine had previously agreed to an unconditional 30-day truce to cease all combat operations, at the urging of the Trump administration. But after Moscow said that it would support only a partial cease-fire on energy infrastructure, Mr. Zelensky 
spoke with Mr. Trump and agreed to the limited truce.

In recent days, Ukrainian officials have set out red lines going into negotiations: Kyiv will never accept Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory, it will not agree to be blocked from joining NATO or to reduce the size of its army, and it must have security guarantees as part of any peace settlement.

Many Ukrainian officials and analysts express doubt that even a limited cease-fire will hold for long, noting that previous truces between Moscow and Kyiv were routinely violated, with each side blaming the other.

“I do not believe in a cease-fire. We’ve been through this before,” Kostyantyn Yeliseev, a seasoned diplomat and former Ukrainian deputy foreign minister who took part in cease-fire negotiations in 2014 and 2015, said in an interview.

What’s next?

Mr. Witkoff said on Wednesday in 
an interview with Bloomberg News that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin were “likely” to meet in Saudi Arabia within weeks. American officials will also probably continue meeting their Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in the Middle East to discuss details of a possible limited truce.

But the foundations of the diplomatic process have been wobbly, analysts said, with Moscow and Kyiv ready to continue fighting.

“Both sides still believe that they can continue the war regardless of the American position,” said Dmitry Kuznets, a military analyst with the Russian news outlet Meduza, which operates from Latvia after being 
outlawed by the Kremlin.

He added, “Moscow’s and Kyiv’s visions of what an agreement could look like are still infinitely far from each other.”


Maria Varenikova and Minho Kim contributed reporting.

Ivan Nechepurenko covers Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the countries of the Caucasus, and Central Asia. He is based in Moscow. More about Ivan Nechepurenko
Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people. More about Constant Méheut

See more on: 

Russia-Ukraine War
Vladimir Putin
Volodymyr Zelensky

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Putin orders army to eject last Ukrainian troops from Russian territory

Andrew Osborn and Mark Trevelyan
, 03/13/25

(Reuters) -President Vladimir Putin donned military fatigues for a surprise visit to troops in Russia's western Kursk region on Wednesday where he ordered them to press their lightning advance and swiftly retake the rest of the area from Ukrainian forces.

Putin made his visit after Washington asked him to consider a 30-day ceasefire proposal backed by Ukraine, and after Russian forces retook a swath of territory in Kursk, forcing Ukrainian troops to fall back and cede control of the town of Sudzha.

Ukraine sprang one of the biggest shocks of the war on August 6 last year by storming across the border and grabbing a chunk of land inside Russia, boosting citizens' morale and gaining a potential bargaining chip.

But after clinging for more than seven months to a gradually shrinking area, Ukraine has seen its position worsen sharply in Kursk in the past week after its main supply lines were severed.

Putin make it clear he was considering setting up a new buffer zone inside Ukraine's Sumy region, which is adjacent to Kursk, to guard against any future potential Ukrainian incursions.

He also said foreign citizens fighting with Ukrainian forces captured in Kursk were not entitled to enjoy the protection of the Geneva Conventions, and that Ukrainian soldiers captured in Kursk should be treated as "terrorists."

"Our task in the near future, in the shortest possible timeframe, is to decisively defeat the enemy entrenched in the Kursk region and still fighting here, to completely liberate the territory of the Kursk region, and to restore the situation along the line of the state border," Putin said.

"And of course, we need to think about creating a security zone along the state border."

Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia's General Staff, was shown telling Putin that Russian forces had pushed Ukrainian forces out of over 86% of the territory they had once held in Kursk, the equivalent to 1,100 square kilometres (425 square miles) of land.

Ukraine's plans to use Kursk as a bargaining chip in possible future negotiations with Russia had failed, he added. Kyiv's gambit that its Kursk operation would force Russia to divert troops from its advance in eastern Ukraine had also not worked.

Gerasimov said Russian forces had retaken 24 settlements and 259 square kilometres of land from Ukrainian forces in the last five days along with over 400 prisoners.

Russian units had also crossed into Ukraine's Sumy region where he said they were expanding "a security zone."

Reuters could not independently verify his assertions.

Reuters was however able to verify video published by Russian bloggers and state media showing troops standing with a Russian tricolour flag on a square in the centre of Sudzha, a town near the Ukrainian border on a highway used by Ukraine as a supply route.

Deep State, an authoritative Ukrainian site that charts the frontlines of the war, updated its battlefield map to show Ukrainian forces were no longer in control of Sudzha. However, it said fighting was continuing on the outskirts.

Ukraine's top army commander said on Wednesday that Kyiv's troops will keep operating in Russia's Kursk region as long as needed and that fighting continued in and around the town of Sudzha.

Skadovskyi Defender, a Ukrainian military blogger, posted on Telegram: "Ukraine's Armed Forces are leaving Kursk. There will be no Ukrainian soldier there by Friday."

The same channel said, however, that Ukraine was continuing to conduct heavy strikes on Sudzha.


(Additional reporting by Dmitry Antonov in Moscow, Anastasiia Malenko and Max Hunder in Kyiv, Yuliia Dysa in Gdansk and Lucy Papachristou in London, writing by Andrew Osborn/Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Stephen Coates) 


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這篇報導的「標題」頗具「誤導性」。我對王毅外長「外交辭令」的解讀是:其重點不在「支持『川普烏克蘭和平方案』」,而在「支持所有可能導致和平的努力請參考本欄上兩篇分析以及川普力推中國上位》一文(2025/02/20)

China backs Trump's Ukraine peace bid at G20 as US allies rally behind Zelenskiy

Joe Cash and Laurie Chen, 02/21/251

Summary

*  China says supports US, Russia talks on Ukraine at G20 meeting
*  China willing to continue to play a role in resolving crisis
*  Beijing keen to involve itself in US, Russia talks, analyst says

BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - China came out in support of U.S. President Donald Trump's bid to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, at a G20 meeting in South Africa on Thursday, while U.S. allies rallied around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Less than a month into his presidency, Trump has 
upended U.S. policy on the war, scrapping a campaign to isolate Moscow with a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin and talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials that have sidelined Ukraine.

Trump on Wednesday then denounced Zelenskiy as a "
dictator," prompting statements of support for the Ukrainian president from G20 members such as Australia, Germany and the United Kingdom.

"China supports all efforts conducive to peace (in Ukraine), including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia," Wang Yi told other G20 foreign ministers gathered in Johannesburg, according to a statement from his ministry.

"China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis," he added.

Wang did not reiterate the point he made at the 
Munich Security Conference last Friday that all stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should participate in any peace talks.

"China is generally happy to see the easing of relations between the United States and Russia and the shift of the Ukrainian crisis to a political solution, but will pay close attention to the direction of negotiations and the direction of easing of U.S.-Russian relations," said Cui Hongjian (
崔洪建), head of European Union studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.

"If China participates in mediation, it can reduce the risk of the United States using the easing of relations with Russia to harm China's interests."

He added that Wang Yi's previous remark that all stakeholders should be included in talks covers not only Ukraine and Europe, but also China and Global South countries.

Global South countries represent developing, emerging or lower-income nations, mostly in the southern hemisphere.

However, other analysts were sceptical of China's substantive involvement beyond rhetorical statements at this stage, given Beijing's aversion to taking geopolitical risks.

"China is happy not to be called on the spot to deliver because they don't know what Trump will demand," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

"Trump wanted China's involvement initially but now he's spoken to Putin. He is under the impression that he doesn't need China to get a deal with Putin and Putin will give him a perfect and better deal going forward."

Wang said China-Russia relations are "moving towards a higher level and broader dimension" during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20. Both men will meet in Moscow soon for their next talks, Lavrov 
said earlier on Thursday.

Other analysts believe that China wants to keep a foot in the door of negotiations because it wants to take part in Ukraine's reconstruction.

"China might turn its attention to discussing a Chinese role in eventual reconstruction and peacekeeping - something that would give Beijing a significantly more vested interest in European security architecture," said Ruby Osman, a China expert at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

The Trump administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold 
more talks with Russia on ending the nearly three-year long conflict after a 4-1/2-hour long meeting in Saudi Arabia.

Russia said the talks had been useful, but hardened its demands, notably insisting it would not tolerate the NATO alliance granting membership to Ukraine.


Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up 
here.

Reporting by Joe Cash and Laurie Chen; Editing by Sonali Paul and Michael Perry

Our Standards: 
The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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請參考本欄上一篇分析以及川普力推中國上位》一文(該2025/02/20)

China's hopes to be Ukraine peacemaker collide with its goals on Trump, trade

Antoni Slodkowski and Laurie Chen, 02/21/25

Summary

*  China focuses on economy, trade over Ukraine peace role
*  Preparations for negotiations over U.S. tariffs a priority for Xi
*  China avoids risks to maintain ties with Russia for energy
*  China engages more with Europe amid frosty relations

BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - For the last three years, China has repeatedly signalled a willingness to act as a peacemaker in the war in Ukraine.

There were rounds of shuttle diplomacy by Beijing's envoy to countries from South Africa to Indonesia. A peace plan with Brazil. A group of "friends for peace" with developing nations. And even a proposal to send Chinese peacekeepers to Europe.

But when Russian and U.S. officials 
met in Saudi Arabia this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping was nowhere near the table, instead meeting with China's tech entrepreneurs in Beijing.

China's priorities are clear: it is focused on repairing its economy and trying to hammer out a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump to avoid another damaging trade war.

And while Beijing wants to be seen as a global peacemaker, it is seeking to do so without incurring costs or taking risks, especially if they could undermine its ties with Moscow, on which it relies for cheap energy.

"If China doesn't buy gas from Russia, which country can provide enough gas to meet the needs of the Chinese people? It’s not possible, and it’s not safe,” China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, this week told the Munich Security Conference, a top global forum on security and diplomacy.

The statement, observers said, was the clearest illustration of how China was unwilling to use a major lever it had to pressure Russia - its record-breaking purchases of close to 23 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

Without a meaningful role in the Ukraine process, China has been able to focus on trade and the economy. Xi has directed Chinese bureaucrats to study Trump's trade policies and prepare responses to his initial tariffs and threats, two people familiar with the situation say.

China has also deliberately dialed down the tone used by foreign ministry spokespeople to keep prospects of a deal with Trump alive, said the people, two of more than a dozen Reuters interviewed for this story.

They include people familiar with the thinking of the Chinese government, Beijing-based diplomats and analysts. Most spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media.

"We will... work with other countries, especially Global South countries, to put forth more objective, fair and rational voices, to gather consensus to stop the war and pave the way for peace," China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement to Reuters.

BEHIND CLOSED DOORS

Trump stunned the world this week by opening peace negotiations directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukraine or Europe, offering concessions before the talks started, calling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a “dictator” and blaming him for the invasion Putin launched in February 2022.

In Munich, Wang called for “all stakeholders”, including Europe, to be at the negotiating table.

European diplomats said that while positive, Wang's gesture fundamentally did not address the issue Europe has been raising with China for months: Its de facto bankrolling of the war through energy purchases and its support for Russia’s military-industrial base - which China denies.

Noah Barkin, senior adviser in Rhodium Group's China practice, said Wang was advocating on Europe’s behalf because China is worried about getting shut out of postwar reconstruction.

"Europe and China's interests are not aligned by any means, but both have an interest in ensuring that this does not turn into a pact sealed by Trump and Putin behind closed doors,” he said.

Diplomats also played down the notion that Trump’s rapid outreach to Putin could undermine Xi’s “no-limits” partnership with Russia.

“Wishful thinking. This idea ignores the depth of coordination, exchanges and closeness between the leaders,” said a senior European diplomat. “Russia is so reliant on China - they won’t risk their ties to Beijing because Trump gave them a call.”

Although for the last three years China has largely ignored Beijing-based Ukrainian diplomats by granting few meetings and not engaging in substantive talks, people familiar with the situation say, it has recently changed tack on Europe.

Several diplomats said they have noticed a much greater willingness by China to engage with European diplomats in recent days. Beijing even dispatched veteran diplomat Hua Chunying (
華春瑩外交部副部長) to Brussels, said two people briefed on her trip.

Ties between Brussels and Beijing have been frosty as the European Union raises issues including market access for European companies, the bloc's massive trade deficit and China's manufacturing overcapacity.

But despite greater engagement, China has not offered any concessions on those issues or made any decisive moves, anticipating the 10% tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese goods was just his opening salvo, said the diplomats.

“I haven’t seen any signs that China is prepared to change its approach to trade or to Russia in order to facilitate some sort of rapprochement with Europe," said Barkin. "Beijing probably believes that Europe is in such a position of weakness at the moment that concessions are unnecessary.”


Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up 
here.

Additional reporting by Hong Kong newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.

Our Standards: 
The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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