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俄烏戰爭現況：開欄文
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2023/07/25 18:13 瀏覽5,827 ｜回應40｜推薦2 |
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烏克蘭的「春季攻勢」蛻化為「夏季攻勢」後，明顯地陷入膠著；沒有什麼值得寫封家書來匯報的進展。以下轉載兩篇「戰況評估」。我存檔備查；看官們請自行參考。
第一篇號稱是：分別從普丁和澤倫斯基兩位的角度，就(佔有)領土、心理、以及軍事三個層面所做的分析。
第二篇是布林肯國務卿的評估。我相信政治作用含量應該超標，可信度自然必須打個折扣。何況，自鮑爾之後，「美國國務卿會說謊」是討論政治的人不得不常記於心的教訓。
本文於 2023/07/25 18:13 修改第 1 次
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《俄、烏分別與美國特使商談局部停火事宜》小評
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2025/03/24 13:58 推薦1 |
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俄、烏雙方都師老兵疲；局部(能源設施)停火乃至全面休戰不是沒有可能(請見本欄上一篇報導)。但是烏克蘭舉國犧牲慘重，加上事關歐洲未來集體安全議題，澤倫斯基(和北約諸國領袖)必然會堅持：「『全面』停火協定」有實質保障外，還不能讓普丁找任何空子來鑽。另一方面，俄國雖然是強弩之末，我懷疑普丁具有「適可而止」的智慧；何況，他這號人物免不了恃寵而驕的小人之心。
總之，我衷心期望：「局部停火」是俄、烏衝突走向「正義和平」完美句點的第一步。但是，即使啟動了正式和談的過程，「停停打打，打打停停」將是今後至少六個月的戲碼。
如果川普能夠圓滿結束這場浩劫，我一定到廟裏替他燒柱高香，改稱他川聖。
本文於 2025/03/25 10:35 修改第 2 次
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俄、烏分別與美國特使商談局部停火事宜 – I. Nechepurenko/C. Méheut
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2025/03/24 11:37 推薦1 |
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Russia and Ukraine Hold U.S.-Mediated Talks: What to Know
American envoys met with Ukrainian officials on Sunday and were set to meet with Russian officials on Monday. The discussions were expected to focus on halting attacks on energy facilities.
Ivan Nechepurenko and Constant Méheut, 03/23/25
Ivan Nechepurenko reported from Tbilisi, Georgia, and Constant Méheut from Kyiv, Ukraine.
The United States is holding separate talks with Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia to iron out details of a possible limited cease-fire in what could be a crucial step toward a full cessation of hostilities in the war.
Russia and Ukraine both agreed this past week to halt strikes on energy infrastructure temporarily, but how and when to implement that partial truce are questions that have yet to be decided as attacks persist.
The talks — held in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, with American representatives mediating — are expected to focus on hammering out those details and on safety for shipping in the Black Sea.
Ukraine was the first to hold talks with the United States, on Sunday. It will be followed by Russia on Monday. Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainian defense minister leading his country’s delegation, said the talks on Sunday had begun around 5:30 p.m. Kyiv time and ended some five hours later. “The discussion was productive and focused — we addressed key points including energy,” he wrote on social media, without offering details.
A Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said the Ukrainian delegation might hold additional discussions with U.S. officials on Monday, depending on progress.
Steve Witkoff, whom President Trump has tapped to be his personal envoy to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, has said that the ultimate goal of the talks is a 30-day full cease-fire that would allow time for negotiations on a permanent truce.
But the path toward such a truce has been shaky. Moscow continues to insist on maximalist positions, including about asserting territorial control and ensuring Ukraine never joins NATO. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly said that it will not concede to the Kremlin’s demands and accused Mr. Putin of stalling for time.
Unlike previous cease-fire discussions, which involved top government officials from all sides, this new round will focus on technical matters and will mostly involve diplomats and government advisers. Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special envoy to Ukraine, said that the American delegation included some of his own staff, along with Michael Anton, policy planning director at the State Department; and aides to the national security adviser, Michael Waltz.
The Russian delegation
Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said on Friday that Mr. Putin had personally selected negotiators for the talks, a delegation led by Grigory B. Karasin, a senior Russian diplomat and lawmaker; and Sergey O. Beseda, an adviser to the head of the Federal Security Service, or F.S.B., the country’s domestic intelligence agency.
While Mr. Karasin has been involved in sensitive foreign policy talks before, Mr. Beseda’s choice came as a surprise to some.
An influential spymaster, Mr. Beseda was head of the F.S.B. department responsible for international intelligence operations. He has been described by Russian news outlets as one of the main sources of intelligence that convinced Mr. Putin in 2022 that there was pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine and that a brisk invasion could easily dismantle the government in Kyiv.
In 2023, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, called Mr. Beseda a “very problematic person” for Ukraine who “has done a lot of evil.”
The Ukrainian delegation
Mr. Umerov, Ukraine’s defense minister, led the negotiations in Riyadh. He was joined by Pavlo Palisa, a top military adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Both Mr. Umerov and Mr. Palisa are members of the Ukrainian delegation for peace talks that Mr. Zelensky appointed this month, a group led by his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Mr. Umerov was a key negotiator for Ukraine in peace talks with Russian diplomats in the early months of the war.
Given the technical nature of the talks on energy and shipping, Ukraine also sent seasoned diplomats and civil servants as part of its delegation. Ukrinform, the state news agency, said the team included deputy foreign and energy ministers, along with Mr. Zelensky’s top diplomatic adviser.
Mr. Zelensky said Ukraine had prepared a list of infrastructure objects that could be included in the cease-fire agreement. He added that a third party would have to monitor the cease-fire and suggested that the United States could do so.
While Russia and Ukraine may find common ground in talks about energy and shipping, both have laid out conditions for a complete cessation of hostilities that appear irreconcilable — a sign of the steep challenges ahead in any broader peace negotiations.
Moscow’s position
This past week, during a telephone conversation with Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin said that Russia would agree to a temporary truce only if Ukraine stopped mobilizing soldiers, training troops or importing weapons for the duration of any pause in fighting.
Mr. Putin also demanded the complete halt of foreign military aid and intelligence to Kyiv, calling it “the key condition for preventing an escalation of the conflict and making progress toward its resolution through political and diplomatic means,” according to the Kremlin’s readout of the call.
The White House said that military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine would continue despite the Kremlin’s demands. But the Trump administration has been less clear on Moscow’s calls for territorial concessions and at times even appeared to align with the Kremlin’s stance.
Mr. Witkoff echoed a Kremlin talking point on Sunday when he tried to legitimize the staged referendums that the Russian occupation forces held in parts of Ukraine to justify the annexation of those territories taken by military force. “There is a view within the country of Russia that these are Russian territories,” Mr. Witkoff told Fox News. “There are referendums within these territories that justify these actions.” Those referendums were widely denounced as fraudulent and illegal by the international community.
Fundamentally, Russia’s position regarding the conflict has remained the same. The Kremlin says it wants to “eliminate the root causes of the crisis” — essentially demanding that Ukraine capitulate. That would mean Kyiv’s recognizing Russia’s territorial gains, declaring neutrality and agreeing to shrink its military, which would most likely leave Ukraine vulnerable to another invasion.
Kyiv’s position
Ukraine had previously agreed to an unconditional 30-day truce to cease all combat operations, at the urging of the Trump administration. But after Moscow said that it would support only a partial cease-fire on energy infrastructure, Mr. Zelensky spoke with Mr. Trump and agreed to the limited truce.
In recent days, Ukrainian officials have set out red lines going into negotiations: Kyiv will never accept Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory, it will not agree to be blocked from joining NATO or to reduce the size of its army, and it must have security guarantees as part of any peace settlement.
Many Ukrainian officials and analysts express doubt that even a limited cease-fire will hold for long, noting that previous truces between Moscow and Kyiv were routinely violated, with each side blaming the other.
“I do not believe in a cease-fire. We’ve been through this before,” Kostyantyn Yeliseev, a seasoned diplomat and former Ukrainian deputy foreign minister who took part in cease-fire negotiations in 2014 and 2015, said in an interview.
What’s next?
Mr. Witkoff said on Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin were “likely” to meet in Saudi Arabia within weeks. American officials will also probably continue meeting their Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in the Middle East to discuss details of a possible limited truce.
But the foundations of the diplomatic process have been wobbly, analysts said, with Moscow and Kyiv ready to continue fighting.
“Both sides still believe that they can continue the war regardless of the American position,” said Dmitry Kuznets, a military analyst with the Russian news outlet Meduza, which operates from Latvia after being outlawed by the Kremlin.
He added, “Moscow’s and Kyiv’s visions of what an agreement could look like are still infinitely far from each other.”
Maria Varenikova and Minho Kim contributed reporting.
Ivan Nechepurenko covers Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the countries of the Caucasus, and Central Asia. He is based in Moscow. More about Ivan Nechepurenko
Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people. More about Constant Méheut
See more on:
Russia-Ukraine War
Vladimir Putin
Volodymyr Zelensky
本文於 2025/03/24 11:38 修改第 1 次
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普丁下令將烏軍逐出庫爾斯克 – A. Osborn/M. Trevelyan
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2025/03/13 12:15 推薦1 |
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Putin orders army to eject last Ukrainian troops from Russian territory
Andrew Osborn and Mark Trevelyan, 03/13/25
(Reuters) -President Vladimir Putin donned military fatigues for a surprise visit to troops in Russia's western Kursk region on Wednesday where he ordered them to press their lightning advance and swiftly retake the rest of the area from Ukrainian forces.
Putin made his visit after Washington asked him to consider a 30-day ceasefire proposal backed by Ukraine, and after Russian forces retook a swath of territory in Kursk, forcing Ukrainian troops to fall back and cede control of the town of Sudzha.
Ukraine sprang one of the biggest shocks of the war on August 6 last year by storming across the border and grabbing a chunk of land inside Russia, boosting citizens' morale and gaining a potential bargaining chip.
But after clinging for more than seven months to a gradually shrinking area, Ukraine has seen its position worsen sharply in Kursk in the past week after its main supply lines were severed.
Putin make it clear he was considering setting up a new buffer zone inside Ukraine's Sumy region, which is adjacent to Kursk, to guard against any future potential Ukrainian incursions.
He also said foreign citizens fighting with Ukrainian forces captured in Kursk were not entitled to enjoy the protection of the Geneva Conventions, and that Ukrainian soldiers captured in Kursk should be treated as "terrorists."
"Our task in the near future, in the shortest possible timeframe, is to decisively defeat the enemy entrenched in the Kursk region and still fighting here, to completely liberate the territory of the Kursk region, and to restore the situation along the line of the state border," Putin said.
"And of course, we need to think about creating a security zone along the state border."
Valery Gerasimov, the chief of Russia's General Staff, was shown telling Putin that Russian forces had pushed Ukrainian forces out of over 86% of the territory they had once held in Kursk, the equivalent to 1,100 square kilometres (425 square miles) of land.
Ukraine's plans to use Kursk as a bargaining chip in possible future negotiations with Russia had failed, he added. Kyiv's gambit that its Kursk operation would force Russia to divert troops from its advance in eastern Ukraine had also not worked.
Gerasimov said Russian forces had retaken 24 settlements and 259 square kilometres of land from Ukrainian forces in the last five days along with over 400 prisoners.
Russian units had also crossed into Ukraine's Sumy region where he said they were expanding "a security zone."
Reuters could not independently verify his assertions.
Reuters was however able to verify video published by Russian bloggers and state media showing troops standing with a Russian tricolour flag on a square in the centre of Sudzha, a town near the Ukrainian border on a highway used by Ukraine as a supply route.
Deep State, an authoritative Ukrainian site that charts the frontlines of the war, updated its battlefield map to show Ukrainian forces were no longer in control of Sudzha. However, it said fighting was continuing on the outskirts.
Ukraine's top army commander said on Wednesday that Kyiv's troops will keep operating in Russia's Kursk region as long as needed and that fighting continued in and around the town of Sudzha.
Skadovskyi Defender, a Ukrainian military blogger, posted on Telegram: "Ukraine's Armed Forces are leaving Kursk. There will be no Ukrainian soldier there by Friday."
The same channel said, however, that Ukraine was continuing to conduct heavy strikes on Sudzha.
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Antonov in Moscow, Anastasiia Malenko and Max Hunder in Kyiv, Yuliia Dysa in Gdansk and Lucy Papachristou in London, writing by Andrew Osborn/Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Kevin Liffey and Stephen Coates)
本文於 2025/03/13 12:16 修改第 1 次
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中國支持川普烏克蘭和平方案 - J. Cash/L. Chen
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2025/02/22 18:02 推薦1 |
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這篇報導的「標題」頗具「誤導性」。我對王毅外長「外交辭令」的解讀是：其重點不在「支持『川普烏克蘭和平方案』」，而在「支持『所有可能導致和平的努力』」。請參考本欄上兩篇分析以及《川普力推中國上位》一文(該欄2025/02/20)。
China backs Trump's Ukraine peace bid at G20 as US allies rally behind Zelenskiy
Joe Cash and Laurie Chen, 02/21/251
Summary
* China says supports US, Russia talks on Ukraine at G20 meeting
* China willing to continue to play a role in resolving crisis
* Beijing keen to involve itself in US, Russia talks, analyst says
BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - China came out in support of U.S. President Donald Trump's bid to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, at a G20 meeting in South Africa on Thursday, while U.S. allies rallied around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Less than a month into his presidency, Trump has upended U.S. policy on the war, scrapping a campaign to isolate Moscow with a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin and talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials that have sidelined Ukraine.
Trump on Wednesday then denounced Zelenskiy as a "dictator," prompting statements of support for the Ukrainian president from G20 members such as Australia, Germany and the United Kingdom.
"China supports all efforts conducive to peace (in Ukraine), including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia," Wang Yi told other G20 foreign ministers gathered in Johannesburg, according to a statement from his ministry.
"China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis," he added.
Wang did not reiterate the point he made at the Munich Security Conference last Friday that all stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should participate in any peace talks.
"China is generally happy to see the easing of relations between the United States and Russia and the shift of the Ukrainian crisis to a political solution, but will pay close attention to the direction of negotiations and the direction of easing of U.S.-Russian relations," said Cui Hongjian (崔洪建), head of European Union studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.
"If China participates in mediation, it can reduce the risk of the United States using the easing of relations with Russia to harm China's interests."
He added that Wang Yi's previous remark that all stakeholders should be included in talks covers not only Ukraine and Europe, but also China and Global South countries.
Global South countries represent developing, emerging or lower-income nations, mostly in the southern hemisphere.
However, other analysts were sceptical of China's substantive involvement beyond rhetorical statements at this stage, given Beijing's aversion to taking geopolitical risks.
"China is happy not to be called on the spot to deliver because they don't know what Trump will demand," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
"Trump wanted China's involvement initially but now he's spoken to Putin. He is under the impression that he doesn't need China to get a deal with Putin and Putin will give him a perfect and better deal going forward."
Wang said China-Russia relations are "moving towards a higher level and broader dimension" during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20. Both men will meet in Moscow soon for their next talks, Lavrov said earlier on Thursday.
Other analysts believe that China wants to keep a foot in the door of negotiations because it wants to take part in Ukraine's reconstruction.
"China might turn its attention to discussing a Chinese role in eventual reconstruction and peacekeeping - something that would give Beijing a significantly more vested interest in European security architecture," said Ruby Osman, a China expert at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
The Trump administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the nearly three-year long conflict after a 4-1/2-hour long meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Russia said the talks had been useful, but hardened its demands, notably insisting it would not tolerate the NATO alliance granting membership to Ukraine.
Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up here.
Reporting by Joe Cash and Laurie Chen; Editing by Sonali Paul and Michael Perry
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
本文於 2025/02/25 06:20 修改第 2 次
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中國在烏克蘭局勢面臨「顧此失彼」兩難 ---- A. Slodkowski/L. Chen
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2025/02/22 14:50 推薦1 |
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請參考本欄上一篇分析以及《川普力推中國上位》一文(該欄2025/02/20)。
China's hopes to be Ukraine peacemaker collide with its goals on Trump, trade
Antoni Slodkowski and Laurie Chen, 02/21/25
Summary
* China focuses on economy, trade over Ukraine peace role
* Preparations for negotiations over U.S. tariffs a priority for Xi
* China avoids risks to maintain ties with Russia for energy
* China engages more with Europe amid frosty relations
BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - For the last three years, China has repeatedly signalled a willingness to act as a peacemaker in the war in Ukraine.
There were rounds of shuttle diplomacy by Beijing's envoy to countries from South Africa to Indonesia. A peace plan with Brazil. A group of "friends for peace" with developing nations. And even a proposal to send Chinese peacekeepers to Europe.
But when Russian and U.S. officials met in Saudi Arabia this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping was nowhere near the table, instead meeting with China's tech entrepreneurs in Beijing.
China's priorities are clear: it is focused on repairing its economy and trying to hammer out a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump to avoid another damaging trade war.
And while Beijing wants to be seen as a global peacemaker, it is seeking to do so without incurring costs or taking risks, especially if they could undermine its ties with Moscow, on which it relies for cheap energy.
"If China doesn't buy gas from Russia, which country can provide enough gas to meet the needs of the Chinese people? It’s not possible, and it’s not safe,” China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, this week told the Munich Security Conference, a top global forum on security and diplomacy.
The statement, observers said, was the clearest illustration of how China was unwilling to use a major lever it had to pressure Russia - its record-breaking purchases of close to 23 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
Without a meaningful role in the Ukraine process, China has been able to focus on trade and the economy. Xi has directed Chinese bureaucrats to study Trump's trade policies and prepare responses to his initial tariffs and threats, two people familiar with the situation say.
China has also deliberately dialed down the tone used by foreign ministry spokespeople to keep prospects of a deal with Trump alive, said the people, two of more than a dozen Reuters interviewed for this story.
They include people familiar with the thinking of the Chinese government, Beijing-based diplomats and analysts. Most spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media.
"We will... work with other countries, especially Global South countries, to put forth more objective, fair and rational voices, to gather consensus to stop the war and pave the way for peace," China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement to Reuters.
BEHIND CLOSED DOORS
Trump stunned the world this week by opening peace negotiations directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukraine or Europe, offering concessions before the talks started, calling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a “dictator” and blaming him for the invasion Putin launched in February 2022.
In Munich, Wang called for “all stakeholders”, including Europe, to be at the negotiating table.
European diplomats said that while positive, Wang's gesture fundamentally did not address the issue Europe has been raising with China for months: Its de facto bankrolling of the war through energy purchases and its support for Russia’s military-industrial base - which China denies.
Noah Barkin, senior adviser in Rhodium Group's China practice, said Wang was advocating on Europe’s behalf because China is worried about getting shut out of postwar reconstruction.
"Europe and China's interests are not aligned by any means, but both have an interest in ensuring that this does not turn into a pact sealed by Trump and Putin behind closed doors,” he said.
Diplomats also played down the notion that Trump’s rapid outreach to Putin could undermine Xi’s “no-limits” partnership with Russia.
“Wishful thinking. This idea ignores the depth of coordination, exchanges and closeness between the leaders,” said a senior European diplomat. “Russia is so reliant on China - they won’t risk their ties to Beijing because Trump gave them a call.”
Although for the last three years China has largely ignored Beijing-based Ukrainian diplomats by granting few meetings and not engaging in substantive talks, people familiar with the situation say, it has recently changed tack on Europe.
Several diplomats said they have noticed a much greater willingness by China to engage with European diplomats in recent days. Beijing even dispatched veteran diplomat Hua Chunying (華春瑩，外交部副部長) to Brussels, said two people briefed on her trip.
Ties between Brussels and Beijing have been frosty as the European Union raises issues including market access for European companies, the bloc's massive trade deficit and China's manufacturing overcapacity.
But despite greater engagement, China has not offered any concessions on those issues or made any decisive moves, anticipating the 10% tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese goods was just his opening salvo, said the diplomats.
“I haven’t seen any signs that China is prepared to change its approach to trade or to Russia in order to facilitate some sort of rapprochement with Europe," said Barkin. "Beijing probably believes that Europe is in such a position of weakness at the moment that concessions are unnecessary.”
Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up here.
Additional reporting by Hong Kong newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
本文於 2025/02/22 18:03 修改第 3 次
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烏克蘭和平方案雛形前途多舛 – Jill Lawless
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2025/02/22 12:51 推薦1 |
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European troops, US support are part of an emerging plan for Ukraine. But it faces many hurdles
Ukraine European Force Explainer
JILL LAWLESS, 02/21/25
LONDON (AP) — As the U.S. and Russia push ahead — so far without Ukraine at the table – on talks to end the war, political and military leaders in Europe are fleshing out details of a plan for European forces to help ensure Moscow doesn't attack again.
After months of quiet discussions, the proposal has become increasingly public. It will likely be on the agenda when U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, two major backers of the idea, visit Washington on separate days next week for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Starmer, who will visit Thursday, has stressed that the force won’t work without American military might to back it up. Persuading Trump to provide it could be a tall order.
What is the plan?
The security guarantee that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy really wants is NATO membership. European members of the military alliance still back that goal, but the U.S. looks to have taken it off the table, along with Ukrainian hopes of regaining the 20% of its territory seized by Russia.
In the absence of NATO membership, Zelenskyy has said that more than 100,000 European troops could be needed in Ukraine to guarantee the conflict doesn't flare up again after a ceasefire.
But Western officials say what’s being discussed is a “reassurance force,” not an army of peacekeepers posted along the 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line in Ukraine's east.
The proposal supported by the United Kingdom and France would see fewer than 30,000 European troops on the ground in Ukraine — away from the front line at key infrastructure sites such as nuclear power plants — backed by Western air and sea power.
Under the plan, the front line would largely be monitored remotely, with drones and other technology. Air power based outside Ukraine — perhaps in Poland or Romania — would be in reserve to deter breaches and reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights.
That could include American air power.
“There must be a U.S. backstop because a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again,” Starmer said on Monday.
What do the Americans say?
Trump has long expressed the view that Washington’s NATO allies don’t pull their weight and that Europe must do more for its own security.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has told European allies that “there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine,” but hasn't ruled out American support such as air transport or logistics.
Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, said during a visit to NATO this week that all options must be kept on the table because the shape of any force will depend on the outcome of peace negotiations that have yet to be held.
Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official, said that “different people in the administration are sending different signals … Who do you believe is an issue.”
It's unclear whether Ukraine will be happy with the proposal.
Russia, meanwhile, has rejected the idea outright. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that deployment of troops from NATO nations, even if not under the banner of the alliance, “will certainly be unacceptable for us.”
Are other European countries onboard?
The U.K., France and the Nordic and Baltic states that are the closest NATO nations to Russia appear most likely to play the main roles in any force.
Italy has constitutional limits on the use of its forces. In some countries including the Netherlands, deploying troops would need parliament’s approval.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his country, a key logistics base for support to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion nearly three years ago, won't send troops into its neighbor.
After a hastily arranged meeting of European leaders in Paris this week to discuss the war, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said talk of a Europe-led security force was “premature.” Scholz said that he was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed “at the wrong time.” He insisted NATO — not an independent European force — must remain the foundation of security.
Could the plan work?
The success of the plan depends on the nature of any agreement to stop the fighting. Russia has around 600,000 troops in Ukraine, and analysts say any ceasefire deal that leaves the bulk of them there is a recipe for renewed conflict.
France's military has just over 200,000 personnel, while the U.K. has less than 150,000. Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said that Europe would struggle to mount a force even in the tens of thousands.
“European countries will have a limited ability to deploy something that can be sustained for multiple rotations, potentially over several years," he said.
And it could be many years. Michael Clarke, visiting professor in war studies at King’s College London, noted that peacekeeping forces in Cyprus and Lebanon have remained in place for decades.
“If it is successful, it will last 20 or 30 years,” he said. “If it is not successful, it will break down into fighting inside two years.”
Lithuania's defense minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, said that there was truth in the Trump administration’s “painful” criticism of Europe’s defense spending and military strength.
“Russia is preparing for a long war,” she told The Associated Press. “They have now three times the manpower and their defense industry is moving quicker than that of Europe. Does anybody believe that this is only aimed at Ukraine?
“What is the use of security guarantees from a weak party? Europe needs to muscle up right now to be actually able to provide security guarantees that will hold.”
Lorne Cook in Brussels, and Emma Burrows in London, contributed to this story.
本文於 2025/02/22 12:53 修改第 1 次
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基瑞洛夫被控「罪行」-Frank Gardner
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2024/12/18 11:03 推薦1 |
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這個事件的時機被拿捏得恰到好處(本欄上一篇)，還有現場直播；我用膝蓋也能想出兩個可能：
1) 烏克蘭情報機構有內應，事先得知這位將軍的行程。
2) 這位將軍被長期跟監，烏克蘭情報機構完全掌握了他的行蹤。此事發生在民用公寓前，很可能涉及桃色新聞；否則，以被害人的身份，很難解釋他為什麼「輕車簡從」。
What was Kirillov accused of?
Frank Gardner, Security correspondent, 12/17/24
To some in the West, Lt Gen Kirillov was a ridiculous, almost comical character, prone to spouting wild theories with no basis in fact. He reportedly claimed that Covid was a US plot to infect Russia, for example.
But there is nothing comical about the order he allegedly gave to deploy the chemical agent Chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops dug-in in frontline trenches in the Donbas.
Chloropicrin, used in the First World War, is a toxic, riot control gas whose use in warfare is banned under Schedule 3 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Russia has signed.
It causes extreme irritation and pain in the eyes and lungs and - although not usually lethal in open spaces where it can disperse - has an obvious tactical benefit on the battlefield.
In a desperate attempt to escape its effects, Ukrainian infantry have been known to exit their trenches where they can then be picked off by drones or snipers on open ground.
In May, the US sanctioned Russia for its alleged use of this chemical in Ukraine, which Moscow denies.
In October the UK sanctioned Lt Gen Kirillov himself as the Commander of Russia’s Radiological Chemical and Biological Defence (CBR) troops.
本文於 2024/12/18 11:06 修改第 3 次
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烏克蘭情報機構刺殺俄國將領–A. Osborn/G. Faulconbridge
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2024/12/18 07:25 推薦1 |
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Ukraine kills Russian chemical weapons chief Igor Kirillov in Moscow
Andrew Osborn and Guy Faulconbridge, 12/18/24
Summary
* Bomb kills senior Russian general in Moscow
* General was head of nuclear defence troops
* Ukraine claims responsibility for killing
* Bomb was hidden in electric scooter
* Russia vows revenge
MOSCOW, Dec 17 (Reuters) - A top Russian general accused by Ukraine of being responsible for the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops was assassinated in Moscow by Ukraine's SBU intelligence service on Tuesday morning in the most high-profile killing of its kind.
Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who was chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed outside an apartment building along with his assistant when a bomb hidden in an electric scooter went off, Russia's Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, said.
An SBU source confirmed to Reuters that the Ukrainian intelligence agency had been behind the hit. "The liquidation of the chief of the radiation and chemical protection troops of the Russian Federation is the work of the SBU," the source said.
The source said that a scooter containing explosives was detonated, killing both Kirillov and his aide, as they stepped out of a building on Ryazansky Prospekt in Moscow.
Unverified video footage of the attack circulating on social media showed two men exiting the building to get into a car followed by a large explosion as the two men remained on the pavement. Reuters could not independently verify the footage.
Kirillov, 54, is the most senior Russian military officer to be assassinated inside Russia by Ukraine and his murder is likely to prompt the Russian authorities to review security protocols for the army's top brass.
Former President Dmitry Medvedev, now a senior Russian security official, told a meeting shown on state TV that Moscow would avenge what he called an act of terrorism.
"Law enforcement agencies must find the killers in Russia," said Medvedev. "Everything must be done to destroy the masterminds (of the killing) who are in Kyiv. We know who these masterminds are. They are the military and political leadership of Ukraine," he said.
本文於 2024/12/18 11:02 修改第 3 次
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烏克蘭軍與北韓軍激戰 -- Mia Jankowicz
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2024/11/09 17:15 推薦1 |
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WWIII的序曲？
It's becoming clearer how Ukraine's first attack on North Korean troops went down
Mia Jankowicz, 11/09/24
* Ukrainian forces have struck North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region, marking a new phase in the war.
* A Ukrainian official said the troops were wearing Russian uniforms and hit by an artillery strike.
* He said that since the first attack, there had been daily battles around Ukrainian-held Sudzha.
A Ukrainian official gave Business Insider further details about the first clashes between Ukrainian and North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a cross-border counteroffensive in August.
Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said on Monday that "the first North Korean troops have already come under fire in Kursk Oblast."
This was later confirmed by Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, who called it a "small engagement." Rustem said the skirmish signaled decisively that North Korea had joined the conflict.
In remarks sent to BI, Kovalenko gave more details about the attack.
"It was an ordinary combat engagement in the Kursk region," he said, describing how Ukrainian forces conduct reconnaissance, identify enemy positions, and launch strikes.
He said Ukrainian forces knew that North Korean troops wearing Russian uniforms had been distributed across various Russian army units in the region for training under combat conditions.
"An artillery strike was launched against a position where Russians and North Korean military personnel were located," he said.
Kovalenko added that it wasn't an isolated incident.
He said "daily battles" were now occurring in the area around Sudzha, a Ukraine-held town at the center of its push into the region.
"Of course, shelling of the positions occurs daily," he said.
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said North Korean soldiers — which Ukraine says number 11,000 — had already suffered losses in Kursk.
Kovalenko said the North Koreans were being given "a few weeks" of training before being sent to live combat positions.
He said they posed "a serious threat that requires additional resources from our forces."
He also said some were being given training in using reconnaissance and strike drones, skills that present a future risk to South Korea.
Once back in North Korea, they could use their new drone know-how "for future terrorist actions in the border areas with South Korea," he said.
BI was unable to independently confirm Kovalenko's account.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian intelligence has shared details of the military equipment it says Russia has issued to North Koreans, including mortars, rifles, machine guns, and anti-tank missiles.
North Korea experts told BI the military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang was a win-win for both countries. But on a practical level, they also spoke of the logistical difficulties of combining two militaries.
This includes the conditions the troops will probably be cooperating under — including language issues, strains of racism from some Russian troops, as well as close supervision from North Korean officials to make sure they don't desert.
Ukrainian intelligence also recently shared what it said was intercepted audio of Russian servicemen discussing the coming Korean troops in a conversation that suggested a chaotic start to North Koreans joining Russia's fight.
本文於 2024/11/09 17:16 修改第 1 次
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烏克蘭將大量使用機器小戰車 - Matthew Loh
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2024/09/21 13:09 推薦1 |
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請至原網頁觀看機器小戰車照片。
Ukraine expects the war to see exponentially more 'iron soldiers,' or ground drones with guns that can fill troop roles
Matthew Loh, 09/20/24
* Ukraine's intelligence chief predicted that ground drones in battle will increase "in the order of tens" this year.
* Kyrylo Budanov said much of Ukraine's impetus for these drones is to avoid sending troops to die.
* Some of Ukraine's experimental ground drones, which it calls "iron soldiers," can be fit with guns or explosives.
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov expects the war to enter a new phase — one that will see far more land-based drones replacing soldiers on the front lines.
In an interview last weekend at the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv, Budanov said the unmanned tech is new but progressing.
"These are just emerging things," he said, per a translation provided by the conference. "In this calendar year, I think the number of those robot systems will grow, grow immensely in the order of tens."
Budanov said drone innovation was driven simply by a human desire to not die.
"People are hesitant to go into battle, so if you can send a drone, 10 drones, or one soldier, you'll always choose to send 10 drones," he added, per another translation from The New Voice of Ukraine.
The intelligence chief foresaw both warring nations developing countermeasures to ground-based drones, but said it's clear unmanned vehicles will be a "trademark" in military innovation for the next two to three decades.
"You can build another drone of 10, but lives are priceless. This is the most important thing," he added.
Ukraine has been testing ground-based drones armed with explosives and turrets, intermittently releasing footage of what it says can range from "kamikaze" vehicles to remote guns.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in May that it had officially approved 10 "robotic complexes" for use in its military, mentioning "ground-based robotic platforms" that can be used to carry weapons or fire them.
Dubbing the platforms "iron soldiers" in July, the ministry said it aimed to have to drones fulfill combat orders for troops, and mentioned robots that can act as sappers, recon, gun platforms, and logistics assistants.
Russia has also been seen using unmanned ground platforms, such as two drones armed with AGS-17 grenade launchers spotted in March.
Ukraine expects to build over 1 million drones in 2024 after galvanizing production late last year. This is an exponential leap in production since the war began in early 2022.
Kyiv said it had produced 50 times more drones in December alone compared to the entirety of the war's first year.
The war has, in recent months, also featured a smattering of new drone unveilings, including that of an aerial drone that can drop thermite on the battlefield and another equipped with an AK-74 rifle.
Meanwhile, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow plans to bump drone production to 1.4 million in 2024, which would be about a 10-fold increase compared to previous years.
本文於 2024/09/21 13:10 修改第 1 次
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