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俄烏戰爭現況：開欄文
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瀏覽5,541 ｜回應37｜推薦2 |
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烏克蘭的「春季攻勢」蛻化為「夏季攻勢」後，明顯地陷入膠著；沒有什麼值得寫封家書來匯報的進展。以下轉載兩篇「戰況評估」。我存檔備查；看官們請自行參考。
第一篇號稱是：分別從普丁和澤倫斯基兩位的角度，就(佔有)領土、心理、以及軍事三個層面所做的分析。
第二篇是布林肯國務卿的評估。我相信政治作用含量應該超標，可信度自然必須打個折扣。何況，自鮑爾之後，「美國國務卿會說謊」是討論政治的人不得不常記於心的教訓。
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中國支持川普烏克蘭和平方案 - J. Cash/L. Chen
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這篇報導的「標題」頗具「誤導性」。我對王毅外長「外交辭令」的解讀是：其重點不在「支持『川普烏克蘭和平方案』」，而在「支持『所有可能導致和平的努力』」。請參考本欄上兩篇分析以及《川普力推中國上位》一文(該欄2025/02/20)。
China backs Trump's Ukraine peace bid at G20 as US allies rally behind Zelenskiy
Joe Cash and Laurie Chen, 02/21/251
Summary
* China says supports US, Russia talks on Ukraine at G20 meeting
* China willing to continue to play a role in resolving crisis
* Beijing keen to involve itself in US, Russia talks, analyst says
BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - China came out in support of U.S. President Donald Trump's bid to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, at a G20 meeting in South Africa on Thursday, while U.S. allies rallied around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Less than a month into his presidency, Trump has upended U.S. policy on the war, scrapping a campaign to isolate Moscow with a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin and talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials that have sidelined Ukraine.
Trump on Wednesday then denounced Zelenskiy as a "dictator," prompting statements of support for the Ukrainian president from G20 members such as Australia, Germany and the United Kingdom.
"China supports all efforts conducive to peace (in Ukraine), including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia," Wang Yi told other G20 foreign ministers gathered in Johannesburg, according to a statement from his ministry.
"China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis," he added.
Wang did not reiterate the point he made at the Munich Security Conference last Friday that all stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should participate in any peace talks.
"China is generally happy to see the easing of relations between the United States and Russia and the shift of the Ukrainian crisis to a political solution, but will pay close attention to the direction of negotiations and the direction of easing of U.S.-Russian relations," said Cui Hongjian (崔洪建), head of European Union studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University.
"If China participates in mediation, it can reduce the risk of the United States using the easing of relations with Russia to harm China's interests."
He added that Wang Yi's previous remark that all stakeholders should be included in talks covers not only Ukraine and Europe, but also China and Global South countries.
Global South countries represent developing, emerging or lower-income nations, mostly in the southern hemisphere.
However, other analysts were sceptical of China's substantive involvement beyond rhetorical statements at this stage, given Beijing's aversion to taking geopolitical risks.
"China is happy not to be called on the spot to deliver because they don't know what Trump will demand," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
"Trump wanted China's involvement initially but now he's spoken to Putin. He is under the impression that he doesn't need China to get a deal with Putin and Putin will give him a perfect and better deal going forward."
Wang said China-Russia relations are "moving towards a higher level and broader dimension" during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20. Both men will meet in Moscow soon for their next talks, Lavrov said earlier on Thursday.
Other analysts believe that China wants to keep a foot in the door of negotiations because it wants to take part in Ukraine's reconstruction.
"China might turn its attention to discussing a Chinese role in eventual reconstruction and peacekeeping - something that would give Beijing a significantly more vested interest in European security architecture," said Ruby Osman, a China expert at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
The Trump administration said on Tuesday it had agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the nearly three-year long conflict after a 4-1/2-hour long meeting in Saudi Arabia.
Russia said the talks had been useful, but hardened its demands, notably insisting it would not tolerate the NATO alliance granting membership to Ukraine.
Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up here.
Reporting by Joe Cash and Laurie Chen; Editing by Sonali Paul and Michael Perry
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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中國在烏克蘭局勢面臨「顧此失彼」兩難 ---- A. Slodkowski/L. Chen
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請參考本欄上一篇分析以及《川普力推中國上位》一文(該欄2025/02/20)。
China's hopes to be Ukraine peacemaker collide with its goals on Trump, trade
Antoni Slodkowski and Laurie Chen, 02/21/25
Summary
* China focuses on economy, trade over Ukraine peace role
* Preparations for negotiations over U.S. tariffs a priority for Xi
* China avoids risks to maintain ties with Russia for energy
* China engages more with Europe amid frosty relations
BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - For the last three years, China has repeatedly signalled a willingness to act as a peacemaker in the war in Ukraine.
There were rounds of shuttle diplomacy by Beijing's envoy to countries from South Africa to Indonesia. A peace plan with Brazil. A group of "friends for peace" with developing nations. And even a proposal to send Chinese peacekeepers to Europe.
But when Russian and U.S. officials met in Saudi Arabia this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping was nowhere near the table, instead meeting with China's tech entrepreneurs in Beijing.
China's priorities are clear: it is focused on repairing its economy and trying to hammer out a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump to avoid another damaging trade war.
And while Beijing wants to be seen as a global peacemaker, it is seeking to do so without incurring costs or taking risks, especially if they could undermine its ties with Moscow, on which it relies for cheap energy.
"If China doesn't buy gas from Russia, which country can provide enough gas to meet the needs of the Chinese people? It’s not possible, and it’s not safe,” China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, this week told the Munich Security Conference, a top global forum on security and diplomacy.
The statement, observers said, was the clearest illustration of how China was unwilling to use a major lever it had to pressure Russia - its record-breaking purchases of close to 23 billion cubic meters of gas annually.
Without a meaningful role in the Ukraine process, China has been able to focus on trade and the economy. Xi has directed Chinese bureaucrats to study Trump's trade policies and prepare responses to his initial tariffs and threats, two people familiar with the situation say.
China has also deliberately dialed down the tone used by foreign ministry spokespeople to keep prospects of a deal with Trump alive, said the people, two of more than a dozen Reuters interviewed for this story.
They include people familiar with the thinking of the Chinese government, Beijing-based diplomats and analysts. Most spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to speak to the media.
"We will... work with other countries, especially Global South countries, to put forth more objective, fair and rational voices, to gather consensus to stop the war and pave the way for peace," China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement to Reuters.
BEHIND CLOSED DOORS
Trump stunned the world this week by opening peace negotiations directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukraine or Europe, offering concessions before the talks started, calling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a “dictator” and blaming him for the invasion Putin launched in February 2022.
In Munich, Wang called for “all stakeholders”, including Europe, to be at the negotiating table.
European diplomats said that while positive, Wang's gesture fundamentally did not address the issue Europe has been raising with China for months: Its de facto bankrolling of the war through energy purchases and its support for Russia’s military-industrial base - which China denies.
Noah Barkin, senior adviser in Rhodium Group's China practice, said Wang was advocating on Europe’s behalf because China is worried about getting shut out of postwar reconstruction.
"Europe and China's interests are not aligned by any means, but both have an interest in ensuring that this does not turn into a pact sealed by Trump and Putin behind closed doors,” he said.
Diplomats also played down the notion that Trump’s rapid outreach to Putin could undermine Xi’s “no-limits” partnership with Russia.
“Wishful thinking. This idea ignores the depth of coordination, exchanges and closeness between the leaders,” said a senior European diplomat. “Russia is so reliant on China - they won’t risk their ties to Beijing because Trump gave them a call.”
Although for the last three years China has largely ignored Beijing-based Ukrainian diplomats by granting few meetings and not engaging in substantive talks, people familiar with the situation say, it has recently changed tack on Europe.
Several diplomats said they have noticed a much greater willingness by China to engage with European diplomats in recent days. Beijing even dispatched veteran diplomat Hua Chunying (華春瑩，外交部副部長) to Brussels, said two people briefed on her trip.
Ties between Brussels and Beijing have been frosty as the European Union raises issues including market access for European companies, the bloc's massive trade deficit and China's manufacturing overcapacity.
But despite greater engagement, China has not offered any concessions on those issues or made any decisive moves, anticipating the 10% tariffs Trump has imposed on Chinese goods was just his opening salvo, said the diplomats.
“I haven’t seen any signs that China is prepared to change its approach to trade or to Russia in order to facilitate some sort of rapprochement with Europe," said Barkin. "Beijing probably believes that Europe is in such a position of weakness at the moment that concessions are unnecessary.”
Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up here.
Additional reporting by Hong Kong newsroom; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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烏克蘭和平方案雛形前途多舛 – Jill Lawless
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European troops, US support are part of an emerging plan for Ukraine. But it faces many hurdles
Ukraine European Force Explainer
JILL LAWLESS, 02/21/25
LONDON (AP) — As the U.S. and Russia push ahead — so far without Ukraine at the table – on talks to end the war, political and military leaders in Europe are fleshing out details of a plan for European forces to help ensure Moscow doesn't attack again.
After months of quiet discussions, the proposal has become increasingly public. It will likely be on the agenda when U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, two major backers of the idea, visit Washington on separate days next week for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Starmer, who will visit Thursday, has stressed that the force won’t work without American military might to back it up. Persuading Trump to provide it could be a tall order.
What is the plan?
The security guarantee that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy really wants is NATO membership. European members of the military alliance still back that goal, but the U.S. looks to have taken it off the table, along with Ukrainian hopes of regaining the 20% of its territory seized by Russia.
In the absence of NATO membership, Zelenskyy has said that more than 100,000 European troops could be needed in Ukraine to guarantee the conflict doesn't flare up again after a ceasefire.
But Western officials say what’s being discussed is a “reassurance force,” not an army of peacekeepers posted along the 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line in Ukraine's east.
The proposal supported by the United Kingdom and France would see fewer than 30,000 European troops on the ground in Ukraine — away from the front line at key infrastructure sites such as nuclear power plants — backed by Western air and sea power.
Under the plan, the front line would largely be monitored remotely, with drones and other technology. Air power based outside Ukraine — perhaps in Poland or Romania — would be in reserve to deter breaches and reopen Ukrainian airspace to commercial flights.
That could include American air power.
“There must be a U.S. backstop because a U.S. security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again,” Starmer said on Monday.
What do the Americans say?
Trump has long expressed the view that Washington’s NATO allies don’t pull their weight and that Europe must do more for its own security.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has told European allies that “there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine,” but hasn't ruled out American support such as air transport or logistics.
Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, said during a visit to NATO this week that all options must be kept on the table because the shape of any force will depend on the outcome of peace negotiations that have yet to be held.
Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official, said that “different people in the administration are sending different signals … Who do you believe is an issue.”
It's unclear whether Ukraine will be happy with the proposal.
Russia, meanwhile, has rejected the idea outright. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that deployment of troops from NATO nations, even if not under the banner of the alliance, “will certainly be unacceptable for us.”
Are other European countries onboard?
The U.K., France and the Nordic and Baltic states that are the closest NATO nations to Russia appear most likely to play the main roles in any force.
Italy has constitutional limits on the use of its forces. In some countries including the Netherlands, deploying troops would need parliament’s approval.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his country, a key logistics base for support to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion nearly three years ago, won't send troops into its neighbor.
After a hastily arranged meeting of European leaders in Paris this week to discuss the war, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said talk of a Europe-led security force was “premature.” Scholz said that he was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed “at the wrong time.” He insisted NATO — not an independent European force — must remain the foundation of security.
Could the plan work?
The success of the plan depends on the nature of any agreement to stop the fighting. Russia has around 600,000 troops in Ukraine, and analysts say any ceasefire deal that leaves the bulk of them there is a recipe for renewed conflict.
France's military has just over 200,000 personnel, while the U.K. has less than 150,000. Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, said that Europe would struggle to mount a force even in the tens of thousands.
“European countries will have a limited ability to deploy something that can be sustained for multiple rotations, potentially over several years," he said.
And it could be many years. Michael Clarke, visiting professor in war studies at King’s College London, noted that peacekeeping forces in Cyprus and Lebanon have remained in place for decades.
“If it is successful, it will last 20 or 30 years,” he said. “If it is not successful, it will break down into fighting inside two years.”
Lithuania's defense minister, Dovilė Šakalienė, said that there was truth in the Trump administration’s “painful” criticism of Europe’s defense spending and military strength.
“Russia is preparing for a long war,” she told The Associated Press. “They have now three times the manpower and their defense industry is moving quicker than that of Europe. Does anybody believe that this is only aimed at Ukraine?
“What is the use of security guarantees from a weak party? Europe needs to muscle up right now to be actually able to provide security guarantees that will hold.”
Lorne Cook in Brussels, and Emma Burrows in London, contributed to this story.
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基瑞洛夫被控「罪行」-Frank Gardner
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這個事件的時機被拿捏得恰到好處(本欄上一篇)，還有現場直播；我用膝蓋也能想出兩個可能：
1) 烏克蘭情報機構有內應，事先得知這位將軍的行程。
2) 這位將軍被長期跟監，烏克蘭情報機構完全掌握了他的行蹤。此事發生在民用公寓前，很可能涉及桃色新聞；否則，以被害人的身份，很難解釋他為什麼「輕車簡從」。
What was Kirillov accused of?
Frank Gardner, Security correspondent, 12/17/24
To some in the West, Lt Gen Kirillov was a ridiculous, almost comical character, prone to spouting wild theories with no basis in fact. He reportedly claimed that Covid was a US plot to infect Russia, for example.
But there is nothing comical about the order he allegedly gave to deploy the chemical agent Chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops dug-in in frontline trenches in the Donbas.
Chloropicrin, used in the First World War, is a toxic, riot control gas whose use in warfare is banned under Schedule 3 of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Russia has signed.
It causes extreme irritation and pain in the eyes and lungs and - although not usually lethal in open spaces where it can disperse - has an obvious tactical benefit on the battlefield.
In a desperate attempt to escape its effects, Ukrainian infantry have been known to exit their trenches where they can then be picked off by drones or snipers on open ground.
In May, the US sanctioned Russia for its alleged use of this chemical in Ukraine, which Moscow denies.
In October the UK sanctioned Lt Gen Kirillov himself as the Commander of Russia’s Radiological Chemical and Biological Defence (CBR) troops.
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烏克蘭情報機構刺殺俄國將領–A. Osborn/G. Faulconbridge
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Ukraine kills Russian chemical weapons chief Igor Kirillov in Moscow
Andrew Osborn and Guy Faulconbridge, 12/18/24
Summary
* Bomb kills senior Russian general in Moscow
* General was head of nuclear defence troops
* Ukraine claims responsibility for killing
* Bomb was hidden in electric scooter
* Russia vows revenge
MOSCOW, Dec 17 (Reuters) - A top Russian general accused by Ukraine of being responsible for the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops was assassinated in Moscow by Ukraine's SBU intelligence service on Tuesday morning in the most high-profile killing of its kind.
Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, who was chief of Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Troops, was killed outside an apartment building along with his assistant when a bomb hidden in an electric scooter went off, Russia's Investigative Committee, which probes serious crimes, said.
An SBU source confirmed to Reuters that the Ukrainian intelligence agency had been behind the hit. "The liquidation of the chief of the radiation and chemical protection troops of the Russian Federation is the work of the SBU," the source said.
The source said that a scooter containing explosives was detonated, killing both Kirillov and his aide, as they stepped out of a building on Ryazansky Prospekt in Moscow.
Unverified video footage of the attack circulating on social media showed two men exiting the building to get into a car followed by a large explosion as the two men remained on the pavement. Reuters could not independently verify the footage.
Kirillov, 54, is the most senior Russian military officer to be assassinated inside Russia by Ukraine and his murder is likely to prompt the Russian authorities to review security protocols for the army's top brass.
Former President Dmitry Medvedev, now a senior Russian security official, told a meeting shown on state TV that Moscow would avenge what he called an act of terrorism.
"Law enforcement agencies must find the killers in Russia," said Medvedev. "Everything must be done to destroy the masterminds (of the killing) who are in Kyiv. We know who these masterminds are. They are the military and political leadership of Ukraine," he said.
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烏克蘭軍與北韓軍激戰 -- Mia Jankowicz
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WWIII的序曲？
It's becoming clearer how Ukraine's first attack on North Korean troops went down
Mia Jankowicz, 11/09/24
* Ukrainian forces have struck North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region, marking a new phase in the war.
* A Ukrainian official said the troops were wearing Russian uniforms and hit by an artillery strike.
* He said that since the first attack, there had been daily battles around Ukrainian-held Sudzha.
A Ukrainian official gave Business Insider further details about the first clashes between Ukrainian and North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a cross-border counteroffensive in August.
Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said on Monday that "the first North Korean troops have already come under fire in Kursk Oblast."
This was later confirmed by Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, who called it a "small engagement." Rustem said the skirmish signaled decisively that North Korea had joined the conflict.
In remarks sent to BI, Kovalenko gave more details about the attack.
"It was an ordinary combat engagement in the Kursk region," he said, describing how Ukrainian forces conduct reconnaissance, identify enemy positions, and launch strikes.
He said Ukrainian forces knew that North Korean troops wearing Russian uniforms had been distributed across various Russian army units in the region for training under combat conditions.
"An artillery strike was launched against a position where Russians and North Korean military personnel were located," he said.
Kovalenko added that it wasn't an isolated incident.
He said "daily battles" were now occurring in the area around Sudzha, a Ukraine-held town at the center of its push into the region.
"Of course, shelling of the positions occurs daily," he said.
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said North Korean soldiers — which Ukraine says number 11,000 — had already suffered losses in Kursk.
Kovalenko said the North Koreans were being given "a few weeks" of training before being sent to live combat positions.
He said they posed "a serious threat that requires additional resources from our forces."
He also said some were being given training in using reconnaissance and strike drones, skills that present a future risk to South Korea.
Once back in North Korea, they could use their new drone know-how "for future terrorist actions in the border areas with South Korea," he said.
BI was unable to independently confirm Kovalenko's account.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian intelligence has shared details of the military equipment it says Russia has issued to North Koreans, including mortars, rifles, machine guns, and anti-tank missiles.
North Korea experts told BI the military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang was a win-win for both countries. But on a practical level, they also spoke of the logistical difficulties of combining two militaries.
This includes the conditions the troops will probably be cooperating under — including language issues, strains of racism from some Russian troops, as well as close supervision from North Korean officials to make sure they don't desert.
Ukrainian intelligence also recently shared what it said was intercepted audio of Russian servicemen discussing the coming Korean troops in a conversation that suggested a chaotic start to North Koreans joining Russia's fight.
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烏克蘭將大量使用機器小戰車 - Matthew Loh
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請至原網頁觀看機器小戰車照片。
Ukraine expects the war to see exponentially more 'iron soldiers,' or ground drones with guns that can fill troop roles
Matthew Loh, 09/20/24
* Ukraine's intelligence chief predicted that ground drones in battle will increase "in the order of tens" this year.
* Kyrylo Budanov said much of Ukraine's impetus for these drones is to avoid sending troops to die.
* Some of Ukraine's experimental ground drones, which it calls "iron soldiers," can be fit with guns or explosives.
Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov expects the war to enter a new phase — one that will see far more land-based drones replacing soldiers on the front lines.
In an interview last weekend at the Yalta European Strategy conference in Kyiv, Budanov said the unmanned tech is new but progressing.
"These are just emerging things," he said, per a translation provided by the conference. "In this calendar year, I think the number of those robot systems will grow, grow immensely in the order of tens."
Budanov said drone innovation was driven simply by a human desire to not die.
"People are hesitant to go into battle, so if you can send a drone, 10 drones, or one soldier, you'll always choose to send 10 drones," he added, per another translation from The New Voice of Ukraine.
The intelligence chief foresaw both warring nations developing countermeasures to ground-based drones, but said it's clear unmanned vehicles will be a "trademark" in military innovation for the next two to three decades.
"You can build another drone of 10, but lives are priceless. This is the most important thing," he added.
Ukraine has been testing ground-based drones armed with explosives and turrets, intermittently releasing footage of what it says can range from "kamikaze" vehicles to remote guns.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in May that it had officially approved 10 "robotic complexes" for use in its military, mentioning "ground-based robotic platforms" that can be used to carry weapons or fire them.
Dubbing the platforms "iron soldiers" in July, the ministry said it aimed to have to drones fulfill combat orders for troops, and mentioned robots that can act as sappers, recon, gun platforms, and logistics assistants.
Russia has also been seen using unmanned ground platforms, such as two drones armed with AGS-17 grenade launchers spotted in March.
Ukraine expects to build over 1 million drones in 2024 after galvanizing production late last year. This is an exponential leap in production since the war began in early 2022.
Kyiv said it had produced 50 times more drones in December alone compared to the entirety of the war's first year.
The war has, in recent months, also featured a smattering of new drone unveilings, including that of an aerial drone that can drop thermite on the battlefield and another equipped with an AK-74 rifle.
Meanwhile, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow plans to bump drone production to 1.4 million in 2024, which would be about a 10-fold increase compared to previous years.
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俄國開始在庫爾斯克反擊烏軍 - Patrick Reevell
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可能就是這場戰爭的轉捩點或決戰時刻。
Russia appears to have launched initial major counterattack against Ukraine in Kursk
Russian forces appeared to drive a wedge into Ukrainian lines, analysts said.
Patrick Reevell, 09/12/24
Russia appears to have launched its first major counterattack to drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia's Kursk region more than a month after Ukraine began its surprise offensive, according to Russian and Ukrainian sources as well as independent military analysts.
Russian forces appeared already to have some success on Tuesday -- retaking some territory and driving a wedge into Ukrainian lines in Kursk, analysts said.
Videos posted by pro-Russian military bloggers and geolocated by ABC News showed a large Russian armored column attacking toward the village of Snagost. Another video appears to show Ukrainian troops taken prisoner.
The Russian counterattack is focused on the western flank of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk that seized hundreds of square kilometers since it began on Aug. 6.
John Helin -- a researcher at the Blackbird Group, which conducts open-source military analysis -- wrote on X that Russian troops had launched a push from the west and north, driving a wedge behind Ukrainian troops toward Snagost. Russian military bloggers claim Russian forces are now attacking the village of Obukhov, which would mean Russian troops could have advanced more than 6 miles on Tuesday, Helin wrote in an article for the Finnish newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat.
A prominent pro-Ukrainian military blogger, Serhiy Sternenko, confirmed Russia has launched a major counterattack and that the situation is dangerous for Ukraine.
"The situation can develop into a poorly controlled crisis," Sternenko wrote on Telegram, saying Ukrainian forces lack adequate coordination in the area and are disorganized.
Military analysts and Ukrainian commentators said Russia's attack was predictable.
"I won't dramatize about the Kursk region, war is war, a fully expected response from the enemy," Stanislav Osman, a volunteer soldier with the 24th "Aidar" Assault Battalion, wrote on his Telegram account. But he said Ukrainian commanders had ignored some warnings from Ukrainian front-line troops in the area.
Ukraine succeeded in seizing hundreds of square miles and dozens of villages inside the Kursk region in the early days of its surprise offensive. Russia has struggled to respond. Ukraine has barely advanced since the first two weeks, although it has kept Russian forces on the defensive. Tuesday's counterattack suggested Russia is now finally seeking to turn the tables and begin trying to push Ukraine back.
Ukraine's incursion into Kursk has been viewed as a high-risk gamble by most independent military experts. Although it has succeeded in shifting the narrative in the war, analysts have warned Ukraine still risks suffering dangerous losses as it tries to hold onto territory in Kursk.
At the same time, Russian forces have made more rapid advances in eastern Ukraine since the Kursk incursion, appearing to take advantage of Ukraine diverting troops and ammunition. Russian forces have advanced toward the city of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub, and stretched Ukrainian lines more broadly in southeast Donbas. Though Russia's rate of advance has reportedly slowed in the past week.
MORE: Blinken lands in Kyiv amid Ukraine push for long-range missile strike permission
MORE: Ukraine confirms 'tough' new foreign minister in Zelenskyy cabinet revamp
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即以其人之道，還治其人之身 – 路透社
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Ukraine targets Moscow in biggest drone attack yet
Reuters, 09/10/24
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Ukraine targeted the Russian capital on Tuesday in its biggest drone attack so far, killing at least one and wrecking dozens of homes in the Moscow region and forcing around 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow.
Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power, said it had destroyed at least 20 Ukrainian attack drones as they swarmed over the Moscow region, which has a population of more than 21 million, and 124 more over eight other regions.
At least one person was killed near Moscow, Russian authorities said. Three of Moscow's four airports were closed for more than six hours and almost 50 flights were diverted.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the drone attack was another reminder of the real nature of Ukraine's political leadership, which he said was made up of Russia's enemies.
"There is no way that night time strikes on residential neighbourhoods can be associated with military action," said Peskov.
"The Kyiv regime continues to demonstrate its nature. They are our enemies and we must continue the special military operation to protect ourselves from such actions," he said, using the expression Moscow uses to describe its war in Ukraine.
Kyiv said Russia, which sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022, had attacked it overnight with 46 drones, of which 38 were destroyed.
The drone attacks on Russia damaged at high-rise apartment buildings in the Ramenskoye district of the Moscow region, setting flats on fire, residents told Reuters.
A 46-year-old woman was killed and three people were wounded in Ramenskoye, Moscow regional governor Andrei Vorobyov said.
Residents said they awoke to blasts and fire.
"I looked at the window and saw a ball of fire," Alexander Li, a resident of the district told Reuters. "The window got blown out by the shockwave."
Georgy, a resident who declined to give his surname, said he heard a drone buzzing outside his building in the early hours.
"I drew back the curtain and it hit the building right before my eyes, I saw it all," he said. "I took my family and we ran outside."
The Ramenskoye district, some 50 km (31 miles) southeast of the Kremlin, has a population of around a quarter of a million people, according to official data.
More than 70 drones were also downed over Russia's Bryansk region and tens more over other regions, Russia's defence ministry said. There was no damage or casualties reported there.
As Russia advances in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv has taken the war to Russia with a cross-border attack into Russia's western Kursk region that began on Aug. 6 and by carrying out increasingly large drone attacks deep into Russian territory.
DRONE WAR
The war has largely been a grinding artillery and drone war along the 1,000 km (620 mile) heavily fortified front line in southern and eastern Ukraine involving hundreds of thousands of soldiers.
Moscow and Kyiv have both sought to buy and develop new drones, deploy them in innovative ways, and seek new ways to destroy them - from using shotguns to advanced electronic jamming systems.
Both sides have turned cheap commercial drones into deadly weapons while ramping up their own production and assembly to attack targets including tanks and energy infrastructure such as refineries and airfields.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has sought to insulate Moscow from the grinding rigours of the war, has called Ukrainian drone attacks that target civilian infrastructure such as nuclear power plants "terrorism" and has vowed a response.
Moscow and other big Russian cities have largely been insulated from the war.
Russia itself has hit Ukraine with thousands of missiles and drones in the last two-and-a-half years, killing thousands of civilians, wrecking much of the country's energy system and damaging commercial and residential properties across the country.
Ukraine says it has a right to strike back deep into Russia, though Kyiv's Western backers have said they do not want a direct confrontation between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance.
There was no immediate comment from Ukraine about Tuesday's attacks. Both sides deny targeting civilians.
Tuesday's attack follows drone attacks Ukraine launched in early September chiefly targeting Russia's energy and power facilities.
Authorities in the Tula region, which neighbours the Moscow region to its north, said drone wreckage had fallen onto a fuel and energy facility but that the "technological process" of the facility was not affected.
(Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge/Andrew Osborn; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Michael Perry and Alex Richardson)
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機器狗上俄、烏戰場 - Sharon Adarlo
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Ukraine Is Getting Ready to Unleash a Swarm of Robot Dogs
Ukraine is letting the dogs out.
Sharon Adarlo, 08/17/24
To address its manpower shortage, Ukraine is planning to let loose packs of robot dogs against the invading Russian military, Agence France-Presse reports.
The robot dogs will be used to detect land mines, go on reconnaissance missions to scope out the enemy in hostile territory, and carry weapons, ammunition, and medicine to the battlefield.
During a recent demonstration to journalists, one of the robot dogs dubbed BAD ONE crouched and ran not unlike its flesh and blood counterpart, showing off its compact size and stealthy agility.
"This dog limits the risk for soldiers and increases operational capabilities," a robot dog operator named Yuri, who's working for a British military equipment company, told AFP. "This is the core function of the dog."
The robot dog has a battery run time of two hours, an onboard thermal imaging system, and a kill switch that erases all of its data if the robot would fall in the hands of the Russians.
It just goes to show how military forces will use and push technology to their limit in order to gain a battlefield advantage, even if the results look like they came out of the "Terminator" movies.
Dogs of Ware
Besides Ukraine, other countries like the United States and China are also deploying robot dogs on the battlefield.
Recently, China unveiled a robot dog with a machine gun strapped to its back, a dystopian glimpse at the future of warfare. Israel is also using robot dogs in its war against Hamas in Gaza.
In addition to robot dogs, a variety of different types of drones have been a pivotal part of the war in Ukraine, a hotbed for new and experimental military technologies.
Ukraine is using the robot dogs to limit the risks to soldiers on the front lines.
"We were concerned about the increasingly frequent reports of casualties at the front due to enemy drones," Kyle Thorburn, head of UK-based military contractor Brit Alliance, told German magazine Bild. "So we discussed the possibilities of a safer solution for reconnaissance missions in high-risk areas."
And the bid appears to be paying off.
"This not only increases the effectiveness of combat operations, but also strengthens the morale of the army," Thorburn added.
More on robot dogs: Boston Dynamics Shows Off Robodog With Fur
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