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俄烏戰爭現況：開欄文
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瀏覽25,392 ｜回應77｜推薦2 |
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烏克蘭的「春季攻勢」蛻化為「夏季攻勢」後，明顯地陷入膠著；沒有什麼值得寫封家書來匯報的進展。以下轉載兩篇「戰況評估」。我存檔備查；看官們請自行參考。
第一篇號稱是：分別從普丁和澤倫斯基兩位的角度，就(佔有)領土、心理、以及軍事三個層面所做的分析。
第二篇是布林肯國務卿的評估。我相信政治作用含量大大超標，可信度自然必須打個折扣。何況，自鮑爾之後，「美國國務卿會說謊」是討論政治的人不得不常記於心的教訓。
本文於 修改第 2 次
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俄國：願意談；拒絕最後通牒 - Dmitry Antonov
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請參見本欄前兩篇貼文，以及它所附「參考」報導。
這個「表態」應該是連著兩次莫斯科「大轟炸」的直接後果。也就是俗話說的：死要面子或「色厲內芢」。如果戰場上沒有重大變化，普丁最晚扭捏作態到耶誕前，然後以「人道」為藉口/理由走上談判桌。
「早知如此，何必當初」；或許，「政客不仁，以百姓為砲灰」。
Russia tells Europe: Yes to talks, no to ultimatums
Dmitry Antonov, 06/19/26
MOSCOW, June 19 (Reuters) - Russia said on Friday it was open to dialogue with European countries but would not accept ultimatums, as signs increase that the EU may seek talks with Moscow after largely shunning contacts since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said common sense dictated the need for such contacts because of the "enormous number" of complex issues on the agenda, but he said the Europeans needed to change their approach to Russia.
"The Europeans have a very serious misconception: They assume that negotiations with Russia must be conducted from a position of strength and based on Russia's weakness. This is the biggest mistake... Such talk will lead nowhere," he told reporters.
"Does this stem from European incompetence, misinformation, or stupidity? We don't know for sure, but it's a fact."
Putin has said that he is open to talks with European governments but that they should make the first move because they were the ones to cut off ties. The EU has imposed 20 rounds of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
SHIFT IN EUROPEAN STANCE
After standing aside for well over a year and leaving it to U.S. President Donald Trump to try to broker an end to the conflict, the EU has started to reach out cautiously to Russia.
The office of European Council President Antonio Costa has made "brief contacts at diplomatic level" with the Kremlin in recent weeks "to open communication channels", an EU official said on Wednesday.
Austrian Chancellor Christian Stocker told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday that the EU should take advantage of "momentum" around peace talks in Ukraine to push ahead with efforts to reopen negotiations with Putin.
Peskov said Russia was willing to talk if there was openness on the other side to engage in real dialogue, "not to engage in moralising or, especially, to issue ultimatums".
Costa's initiative exposed divisions at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels, however, with some saying it had not been coordinated with them and that the EU should focus on putting more pressure on Russia.
UKRAINE HITS MOSCOW WITH DRONE STRIKES
Ukraine says it is turning the tide of the war thanks to an intensified campaign of drone strikes deep inside Russia that has targeted ports, refineries and other key infrastructure. Moscow disputes that, insisting it will keep fighting to achieve its objectives if no diplomatic settlement can be reached.
The governor of the Moscow region said on Friday that an eight-year-old girl had been killed in a massive Ukrainian attack that hit the capital and surrounding area a day earlier. The attack, using hundreds of drones, set fire for the second time in three days to a big oil refinery in southeast Moscow.
"Indeed, drone attacks continue. Appropriate measures are being taken to mitigate the consequences," Peskov said.
Asked if Putin had seen footage of the burning refinery, Peskov told reporters they should check out images from Ukrainian cities that Russian forces had struck.
"These strikes will continue," he said.
(Reporting by Dmitry Antonov; Writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
相關報導：
What measures is Russia taking against drone attacks?
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四年苦戰俄國社會撐不住了 -- Herman Pirchner Jr.
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請參考：
* How Ukraine found a way through Moscow’s air defences (烏克蘭此次空襲出動992架無人機；550架上下被擊落。)
* Moscow residents complain of black rain after largest Ukrainian attack hits oil refinery
* Massive blasts in Moscow shatter even Putin’s protective shell
War-weary Russia is falling apart
by Herman Pirchner Jr., opinion contributor, 06/16/26
It is becoming increasingly difficult for Russians — both Russia’s elites and ordinary citizens — to ignore the growing disaster that has been created by more than four years of Vladimir Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine.
Russians understand well that, in exchange for decidedly meager gains, the conflict has resulted in catastrophic strategic setbacks: an expanded and better-resourced NATO; more than a million casualties; the loss of energy market dominance in Europe (and the political influence that came with it); the exodus of up to 1 million of the country’s most capable young citizens; the destruction of the Russian economy; and much more.
To be sure, most have remained quiet out of a fully justified fear of Putin’s instruments of repression. But that is changing. Growing numbers of Russians are now publicly speaking out against the war, and even against Putin himself. And many are doing so without being killed or sent to jail.
In Russia’s rigidly controlled authoritarian system, this state of affairs is only possible because elements of Russia’s powerful security services permit it. That they increasingly do should be a major warning sign for Putin.
Could this growing dissent finally lead to the end of Putin’s rule and, along with it, the war? Is there a tipping point?
Perhaps it will be the increasing effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries, of which there have been more than 150 to date. Between May 1 and May 22 alone, Kyiv successfully struck 10 of Russia’s largest refineries, causing six to suspend or stop operations. As a result, it’s now not hard to imagine a Moscow summer with gas shortages and long lines.
Russia’s problems do not stop there, however. It also has a problem exporting its crude, because Ukrainian attacks have targeted its ports. For instance, between March 25 and April 11, Russia exported 3.5 million barrels per day — a decrease of roughly 40 percent from the 5.2 million barrels it was shipping out daily earlier this year. That, in turn, is dwindling Russia’s finances and forcing the regime to eat ever deeper into its National Wealth Fund. Indeed, the Kremlin has by now reportedly sold approximately 60 percent of its gold reserves.
As a result of these and other factors, the head of the usually loyal Communist Party of Russia, Gennady Zyuganov, recently cautioned that economic conditions have become so dire that a 1917-style revolution is now possible. Zyuganov’s warning is consistent with those of lesser public figures, who now routinely raise the alarm about the fragility of the economy as well as Russia’s ability to continue financing the war.
Increasingly, Russia’s supply lines are compromised as well. Moscow is reliant on one major road and one rail line to supply its troops in Crimea and other parts of southeastern Ukraine. In recent weeks, it has lost the ability to safely do so, because trains and convoys using those routes are being successfully targeted by Ukraine’s new FP-2 drones, which carry 230 pounds of explosives and have a range of 120 miles. Moving trains have been damaged and derailed, the road is littered with destroyed Russian vehicles, and those continuing to travel are being forced to do so at night.
The cumulative effect is already being seen in Crimea, where the city of Sevastopol has now begun rationing gas.
Back in December 2010, when Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest restrictive government regulations, it touched off a political cascade that resulted in the removal of longtime regional leaders like Tunisia’s Zine Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarek and, eventually, Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi. A similar cascade is now possible in Russia’s current, fraught political environment.
Of course, there might be no tipping point at all. Putin understands his personal vulnerability perfectly well, and has moved decisively to limit it. To better control information, he has shut down parts of Russia’s internet. And to prevent a coup or assassination, he has tightened his personal security and stepped up the repression of potential opponents. These measures could enable him to stay in power, and to continue the war.
No one knows how the current dilemma created by Putin’s military misadventure will play out. One thing, however, is increasingly clear: The trendlines are not good, either for Russia or for its president.
Herman Pirchner Jr. is president of the American Foreign Policy Council.
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烏克蘭及盟邦提出5個議和條件 -- Paulin Kola
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請參考：
* Key developments as Ukraine war grinds through summer (06/14)
戰場上「反守為攻」；和談桌上自然也隨之「主客易勢」。「見好不收」者，戒之！戒之！
Zelensky's close European allies set out five conditions for peace talks
Paulin Kola, 06/08/26
The leaders of Ukraine and its close European allies - the UK, France and Germany - have set out out five conditions for reaching a "just and lasting" deal to end the war with Russia.
In a joint statement after talks in London, Volodymyr Zelensky, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said they would "stand firmly with Ukraine".
The five conditions include a stop to the fighting, starting negotiations from the current position in the field as well as "robust" security guarantees for Ukraine.
The leaders reiterated the need for the US to be part of the process at a time when US President Donald Trump's focus has shifted to the war with Iran.
Back in December, the US pushed Russia and Ukraine to sign up quickly to a plan to end the war, which began with Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision in February 2022 to launch a full-scale invasion of its neighbour.
The warring sides have recently intensified attacks against each other, with Russia using missiles and drones to attack Ukrainian cities - and Ukraine displaying increased abilities to reach deep into Russian territory with new technology.
On Saturday, Ukrainian drones hit Russia's second-largest city, St Petersburg, as it hosted the final day of a major economic forum - an attack described as "unprecedented" by Russian authorities.
Days earlier, Kyiv had attacked the outskirts of the same city - some 1,000 km (620 miles) from Ukraine - as Putin's flagship forum was getting started.
On the eve of the event, Zelensky sent an open letter to Putin calling for direct negotiations to end the war - an offer repeatedly rejected by the Russian leader. Putin said he would end the war only when Russia's goals had been met.
The three Western powers meeting at 10 Downing Street in London on Sunday constitute the so-called E3 group and are some of Kyiv's strongest allies. The UK and France lead the "coalition of the willing" initiative to provide security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any future peace process.
They welcomed Zelensky's letter to Putin and supported his call for "a direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia - with active US and European participation".
In an apparent reference to Moscow's insistence that Ukraine give up its ambition to join the Nato defence alliance, they said Ukraine right "to choose its own security arrangements and alliances must be fully respected".
Before arriving in London, the Ukrainian leader accused Russia of a "vile" attack after Kyiv officials said a drone had struck a storage facility for spent nuclear fuel near the Chornobyl nuclear plant.
There were no injuries and a fire was put out with radiation levels remaining stable.
Separately, at least three people were killed in a Russian strike in a village outside Zaporizhzhia in the south of the country, authorities said.
Zaporizhzhia has come under relentless Russian attacks recently, with at least two people killed there on Saturday.
The Russian strike on Chornobyl "partially destroyed" a spent nuclear fuel storage building, according to Ukraine's state-owned nuclear operator, Enerhoatom.
The operator said there were no injuries, and a fire in the building was put out, adding that radiation remained at a normal level.
The body also criticised Moscow for what it called a deliberate threat to nuclear safety, in words echoed by Zelensky.
"Russia deliberately struck this particular nuclear infrastructure facility," Zelensky said in a post on X, describing the building as an "as extremely critical infrastructure facility" and the attack as "vile".
Chornobyl - known during the Soviet era as Chernobyl - is the world's worst non-military nuclear disaster. A catastrophic explosion in 1986 sent a plume of radioactive material into the air, triggering a public health emergency across Europe.
Last year, a Russian drone hit the protective shelter over its damaged nuclear reactor.
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烏克蘭無人機空襲聖彼德堡 -- Antonia Langford
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請參考：
* Ukraine’s deadly strikes are bringing the war home to Russians, and discontent is bubbling up (06/07)
* A Ukrainian drone attack reveals the limits of laser warfare (06/06)
* Zelensky proposes face-to-face talks in open letter to Putin (06/05)
* 本欄2026/05/18貼文。
Ukraine’s St Petersburg attack overshadows ‘Putin’s Davos’
Zelensky confirms drone strike on oil depot hours before the opening of Russia’s economic forum
Antonia Langford, 06/04/26
Ukrainian drones have blown up parts of St Petersburg’s oil terminal as the city hosts an annual conference known as “Vladimir Putin’s Davos”.
Plumes of black smoke were seen above Russia’s second city, which is also Putin’s hometown, hours before the opening of the St Petersburg Economic Forum.
Russians published videos on Telegram and other social media showing loud explosions, flashes and fires raging around the depot.
The oil terminal, one of the largest fuel storage and export facilities in the country, handles around 90 million barrels of oil a year. It is located just over 10 miles from where the convention is set to take place.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, confirmed the strikes on Wednesday morning. “The distance from Ukraine’s state border to this facility of Russia’s oil industry, which serves the war, is about 680 miles,” he said.
“Ukraine’s plan for long-range sanctions is being implemented exactly as needed to bring peace closer,” he added.
In later comments, he said the strikes were a “fair” response to Russian attacks on Ukraine, which have intensified in recent weeks.
“I believe these are fair strikes. Just a day ago, there was a massive attack. We responded accordingly,” Mr Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv. “It’s just a matter of time before we can scale up the intensity of our responses.”
Russian authorities said they had intercepted and destroyed more than 350 Ukrainian drones over the country’s airspace
Representatives from more than 130 countries were expected to convene for the three-day event, where the Russian president will deliver a keynote address.
The conference is also expected to host a member of Donald Trump’s administration, which the Kremlin has said marks the first US participation in the forum since 2017-2018.
Rodney Mims Cook Jr, the US commission of fine arts chairman, who is overseeing Mr Trump’s ballroom extension at the White House, will participate, as will Candace Owens, the Right-wing American political commentator.
There has also been speculation that Andrew Tate, the far-Right social media personality charged with human trafficking, will attend, after he arrived in Moscow on Tuesday.
It is the second time in a month that Ukraine has struck one of Russia’s major cities before an event led by Putin. He was forced to plead with Kyiv for a ceasefire to mark Moscow’s annual Victory Day parade.
Flights were disrupted for about five hours at St Petersburg’s Pulkovo airport, the country’s second-busiest aviation hub, as international guests flew in for the forum.
Russian authorities said their air defences had intercepted and destroyed more than 350 Ukrainian drones over the country’s airspace, some of which reached as far as Moscow, St Petersburg and Novgorod.
Ukraine’s drones also hit the Tambov defence plant south-east of Moscow, and a military facility on Kotlin Island just west of St Petersburg where elements of Russia’s Baltic Fleet and major shipbuilding and repair facilities are located, Mr Zelensky said.
The Kremlin was hoping to use the forum to project an image of confidence and economic resilience, despite its isolation on the world stage and suggestions of increasing budgetary pressure.
Russia downgraded its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.4 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent, amid continued military spending.
The Russian finance ministry and central bank officials have warned Putin that his current projected expenditure on defence will risk the government’s budget deficit expanding to unsustainable levels, according to Bloomberg.
Putin has reportedly been told that he will need to choose between reducing financing for the war or confronting a recession.
Mark Rutte, Nato’s chief, said on Wednesday that Russia was growing increasingly desperate.
“Russia’s recklessness is not new. But as Ukraine continues to stand strong, to innovate, and to make battlefield gains, Russia is increasingly desperate,” he said, speaking alongside Mr Zelensky.
The St Petersburg event was previously used to court Western investment into Russia and was the site of multi-billion-pound business deals with European companies.
However, since the war, the conference had been largely shunned by Western officials and this year will host guests from countries including Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan and Tanzania alongside its single US representative.
Denys Shtilierman – the co-founder of Fire Point, which produces most of the long-range drones Ukraine uses against Russia – said: “Because of such distinguished guests and the importance of the event itself, we couldn’t ignore it and urgently flew to St Petersburg.
“I hope all the guests of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum 2026 will take deep breaths and enjoy the view.”
Kyiv has significantly expanded its long-range strikes on Russian territory this year, knocking out almost 40 per cent of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity as of May, according to Mr Zelensky.
Wednesday morning’s attack came one day after the Kremlin’s forces launched a large-scale aerial assault on Kyiv, Dnipro and other Ukrainian cities, killing 23 people with hundreds of drones and more than 70 missiles.
Russian shelling on Wednesday killed at least three Ukrainian civilians in the frontline city of Kramatorsk, and Moscow’s forces attacked areas near the southeastern city of Dnipro with drones and missiles.
Speaking in his nightly video address, Mr Zelensky said Russian forces had struck food storage areas and a postal depot with drones and missiles.
Meanwhile, a group of Ukraine’s key European allies are working on plans with Kyiv to engage Russia in negotiations to end the war, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Officials from Germany, France and the UK, Europe’s three biggest economies, have been discussing the possibility of holding talks and have discussed the matter with their Ukrainian counterparts, the report added.
Try full access to The Telegraph free today. Unlock their award-winning website and essential news app, plus useful tools and expert guides for your money, health and holidays.
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普丁垂死掙扎-AP/ABC News
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自以為「所向無敵」的兩個蠢貨莽夫，先後被他們各自認為「不堪一擊」的軟蛋揍得鼻青臉腫。就算冥冥中有主宰，「現世報」也不會來得這麼快吧。應該是：「自作孽不可活」這這個觀察具有堅實的「經驗基礎」，其結論才會屢試不爽。
With a stalemate in Ukraine and discontent at home, Putin seems ready to escalate war
President Vladimir Putin is facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians and appears ready to change the narrative around the conflict
The Associated Press, 05/29/26
Headlines from ABC News Live -- Catch up on the developing stories making headlines.
Facing a battlefield stalemate in Ukraine and growing war fatigue among Russians, President Vladimir Putin appears ready to change the narrative around the conflict.
He looks likely to sharply escalate the Russian aerial attacks on the Ukrainian capital in the hope it will shore up his sagging domestic approval ratings and persuade an increasingly pessimistic audience at home that Moscow is winning the war, now in its fifth year.
Russia’s warning to carry out “consistent and systematic” missile strikes on Kyiv, accompanied by a call for evacuating foreign embassies from the capital, signals Putin’s intention to expand Russia's barrage despite the heavy costs and potential international outrage.
Massive drills of Russia's nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of belligerent statements from Moscow warning Kyiv’s European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks have underlined Putin’s intention to up the ante.
After a series of gains last year, Russia’s advances along the over 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line have ground to a near halt recently, and Ukraine’s armed forces have launched successful counterstrikes and reclaimed some ground.
“The character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces, at least for now,” the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent analysis. “Russian forces’ rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare.”
The battlefield gridlock undermines Putin’s declared goal of quickly capturing the eastern Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control. Kyiv has rejected his demands to withdraw from the region as a condition for a ceasefire.
At the same time, Ukraine has significantly expanded its long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities and arms factories, inflicting increasing damage.
Putin scaled down the annual May 9 Victory Day parade, fearing Ukrainian drone strikes. Days later, a massive drone attack on Moscow's suburbs killed three and showed that even the densely protected capital isn’t fully immune from assault, shattering Kremlin efforts to cast the conflict as something distant that doesn’t affect ordinary Russians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks were “significantly changing the situation — and, more broadly, the world’s perception of Russia’s war.”
Acknowledging the growing threat of Ukraine's deep strikes, Russian lawmakers this week approved a bill that says the country’s banks should bear the cost of installing drone-jamming systems on their premises, rather than rely on the military.
“From Russia’s perspective, these attacks are just going to get worse,” said Thomas Withington of the Royal United Services Institute in London. He added that Ukraine's increasingly audacious drone attacks were “exacting not only a political but an economic cost in Russia.”
Russia’s economy has stagnated as the initial boost from massive military spending has petered out. The government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to keep the budget deficit under control. And even though the U.S. war in Iran has meant windfall oil revenues for Russia, fundamental economic challenges remain.
Putin is expected to play down the negative dynamics at next week's international economic forum in St. Petersburg, an annual event intended to showcase Russia’s achievements.
Nigel Gould-Davies of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an analysis that “war-fueled high prices of capital, labor and goods, as well as rising taxes, have begun to depress the civilian sectors,” resulting in "a dual economy of overheated military output and civilian stagnation.”
While Russia has relied on volunteer soldiers to fight the war, offering them comparatively high wages and other benefits, Gould-Davies argued that “there are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit.”
To sustain the war, the Kremlin will have to forcibly mobilize human and material resources, requiring it to “curtail the last remaining post-Soviet market freedoms, labor freedom, and freedom of movement,” he said.
In a sign of brewing discontent, some social media influencers previously loyal to the Kremlin have started to openly criticize government policies.
A move by authorities to restrict cellphone internet and block popular messaging apps has upset daily routines for millions, causing open grumbling. Natalya Kasperskaya, a prominent IT entrepreneur and a staunch Kremlin supporter, harshly criticized the shutdowns and attempts to block virtual private networks, warning that they cause massive damage to the tech sector.
Tatyana Stanovaya, a Russia expert who founded the R.Politik newsletter focused on Kremlin politics, noted the spreading Ukrainian drone attacks along with mobile internet shutdowns and rising taxes have eroded Putin’s standing. While he faces no immediate threats to his rule, “the gradual fading of Putin’s credibility is real,” she said.
In early spring, Russian opinion polls, including one by a government-run pollster, recorded a dip in Putin’s approval ratings, although they rose slightly in May in the state-controlled poll after the organization changed its methodology to include face-to-face interviews. Many observers believe the numbers may be inflated amid a widespread crackdown on dissent.
“Putin is losing his magic,” Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote in a commentary. “Power remains undivided in his hands, but its spell is fading. Even loyalists complain about the mounting restrictions and repression, and once-upbeat businesspeople are now despondent.”
Citing a May 22 Ukrainian drone attack on a college dormitory in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine that Moscow said killed 21 people, Putin ordered a massive missile strike on Kyiv and its surrounding region. Sunday's barrage that involved Russia’s new hypersonic Oreshnik missile killed two, injured scores of others and destroyed or damaged many buildings.
On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will launch “consistent and systematic” strikes on Kyiv to target drone-making facilities and “decision-making centers.” It urged foreign diplomats to leave the capital — a demand rejected by Ukraine’s allies.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to warn him of the coming strikes and push for the evacuation of its diplomats.
“The danger in all of these wars as they continue and then they go on is that they always have the threat of escalation, of spreading into something new,” Rubio told reporters after the call.
The Iran war has effectively put U.S. mediation efforts in Ukraine on hold and drained American missile arsenals, delaying the delivery of U.S.-made Patriot missiles that Ukraine desperately needs to fend off Russian attacks.
Moscow-based military analyst Sergei Poletaev said Russia sees the shortage of air defense assets in Kyiv as an opportunity.
“Kyiv’s air defenses have been exhausted enough to make a massive attack efficient,” he said in a recent commentary.
Accompanying the declared blitz on Kyiv, Russia issued a barrage of threats aimed at Ukraine's European allies.
The Defense Ministry published a list of facilities in Europe that it said were involved in manufacturing drones and their components for Ukraine. And Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service warned the Baltic nations that their NATO membership won’t protect them from Moscow’s retaliation if they allow Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory. Those allies have denounced Moscow's claims.
“We are actually very, very close to direct military confrontation,” said Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s envoy to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
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烏克蘭無人機大舉空襲莫斯科 - Kevin Shalvey等
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請參考：
* Russians Fear Ukraine ‘Slaughterbot’ Drones Are Head-Hunting Them (05/20)
Ukraine launches hundreds of drones in deadly attack targeting Russia, Moscow says
At least three people were killed in the overnight aerial assault, Russia said.
Kevin Shalvey/Rashid Haddou/Tanya Stukalova/Anna Sergeeva, 05/17/26
LONDON and MOSCOW -- Ukraine launched overnight more than 550 drones targeting more than a dozen Russian regions, including Moscow, Russian officials said, in a deadly attack that's among the largest-scale aerial assaults aimed at the capital region since the war began.
Ukraine launched some 556 drones that were "intercepted and destroyed" over a nine-hour period ending early on Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on the Telegram messaging app. At least another 30 drones were intercepted in the two hours after that message, the ministry said in an update.
At least three people were killed and about a dozen others were injured in the Moscow region, local officials said. Reuters reported that the death toll had climbed to four.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday that the attacks were a response to Russia's ongoing drone and missile launches aimed at cities around Ukraine. He added that Kyiv's strikes were "entirely justified."
"This time, Ukrainian long-range sanctions reached the Moscow region, and we are clearly telling the Russians: their state must end its war," Zelenskyy said on social media. "Ukrainian drone and missile manufacturers continue their work."
Zelenskyy said Russia had launched in the last week more than 3,170 attack drones, over 1,300 guided aerial bombs and 74 missiles targeting Ukraine.
The Ukrainian drone launches overnight followed a warning issued on Friday by Zelenskyy, who said that Kyiv was "defining targets" for further strikes.
"Ukraine will not allow any of the aggressor’s strikes that take the lives of our people to go unpunished," Zelenskyy said on Friday on social media. "We are entirely justified in our responses against Russia’s oil industry, military production, and those directly responsible for committing war crimes against Ukraine and Ukrainians."
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普丁鬆口之「形勢比人強」 -- Claire Keenan
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請參考：
* Former top Russian official admits the country is over Putin and can ‘imagine a future without him’ — even elites bail as Kremlin seizes their assets (05/17)
* A Shift in Ukraine (05/13)
* 本欄上一篇
* 此欄2026/05/06貼文
另一個：拭目以待；屏息以待。
Putin says he thinks Ukraine conflict 'coming to an end'
Claire Keenan, BBC News, 05/10/26
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he thinks Russia's conflict with Ukraine is coming to an end, addressing reporters after a scaled-back military parade in Moscow marking the Soviet victory in World War Two.
"I think that the matter is coming to an end," he said, referring to the "special military operation" in Ukraine, while condemning Western support for the Kyiv government.
Russia's annual parade lacked the usual display of tanks and missiles, due to security concerns as authorities feared Ukraine might target Red Square with drones.
A last-minute ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, brokered by US President Donald Trump, reduced the danger of any attack and the parade passed off without incident.
Putin's comments came just hours after he used his Victory Day speech to justify the war.
In that speech he said Russia was fighting a "just" war and called Ukraine an "aggressive force" that was being "armed and supported by the whole bloc of Nato".
Later, when asked at a news conference about the West helping Ukraine, Putin said: "They (West) promised assistance and then began fuelling a confrontation with Russia that continues to this day. I think that the matter is coming to an end, but it is a serious matter."
Russian forces seized Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine in 2014, then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Putin said he would only meet Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky once a lasting peace deal was agreed to.
"A meeting in a third country is also possible, but only once final agreements have been reached on a peace treaty for a long‑term historical perspective, to take part in this event and sign (treaty), but it must be a final step," he continued.
Putin said he had heard that Zelensky was ready to hold a personal meeting but added "this is not the first time we have heard such statements".
Putin said he would be willing to negotiate new security arrangements for Europe, and that his preferred negotiating partner would be Germany's former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.
The ex-chancellor is a longstanding friend of Putin, and controversial because of his work for Russian state-owned energy firms.
As part of the US-led ceasefire deal over the weekend, Kyiv and Moscow agreed to a swap of 1,000 prisoners from each country. But Putin said on Saturday that Russia had not yet heard from Ukraine about any exchanges.
For the first time in nearly two decades there was no military hardware at the Red Square parade, which the Kremlin normally showcases to project Russian military power on the international stage.
There were also far fewer journalists at the event, with many international media organisations not being granted access.
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普丁的風光日子終於到頭了 -- Jason Ma
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* 此欄2026/05/06貼文
* As Ukraine strikes deeper inside Russia, Putin retreats further into paranoia (05/06)
As economic despair mounts, Russian official admits the country has had enough of Putin’s war on Ukraine. ‘We can’t even take one region’
Jason Ma, 05/04/26
Vladimir Putin is losing the Russian people as the economy and his war machine go in reverse amid withering Ukrainian attacks.
On the economic front, Putin himself recently revealed that GDP contracted in the first two months of the year. And on the Ukraine front, Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory last month for the first time since 2024.
After Russia launched a sudden invasion in 2022, Putin has not only failed to defeat Ukraine, his forces have been unable to take full control of the Donetsk region.
“The overall mood is that’s enough already; you’ve been fighting for long enough,” a Russian official last week on condition of anonymity. “It seems to everyone that it’s been going on for longer than World War II, the Great Patriotic War — and at the same time we can’t even take one region.”
With Western military aid and innovations from Ukraine’s now-thriving domestic defense industry, Kyiv has weakened Russia’s economy and military.
Long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory have damaged key oil-export hubs and “shadow fleet” tankers transporting sanctioned crude.
At the same time, new drone technology is also giving Ukraine a battlefield advantage, helping to roll back Russian troops, who have also been cut off from Starlink internet connections that were vital to their own drones.
In a tacit acknowledgement of the heightened threat from Ukraine’s drones, the Kremlin said Wednesday it would dramatically scale back the annual Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square later this month.
Putin’s approval tumbles
Meanwhile, ordinary Russians have grappled with high inflation caused by military mobilizations and defense production as well as the Kremlin’s crackdown on internet access to restrict the flow of grim news on the economy and war.
Even a survey from Russia’s state-owned pollster showed Putin’s approval rate has fallen to 65.6% from 77.8% at the start of the year and prewar levels well above 80%.
Recognizing the growing economic despair, some Russian officials have publicly addressed the dire situation.
Last month, Economy Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told a business conference that the economy “is not easy” and called for reallocating the workforce, which has been tight as the war created labor shortages.
“Of course, it’s not easy to find staff, and salaries are rising,” he said. “But nonetheless, we coped with all of that somehow because somewhere in the economy there were reserves. Our current records show that these reserves have largely been used up; this truly is the situation and the macroeconomic situation is substantially more difficult.”
Days later, the central bank slashed the benchmark interest rate again, marking the fifth straight half-point reduction, to bring it down to 14.5%.
That came after Putin made his concerns about the economy public as he vented frustration at ministers and demanded they offer solutions.
“A significant risk from external conditions is the situation in the Middle East,” Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a briefing. “If the conflict drags on, the negative effects on the Russian economy will grow.”
In addition, a veteran lawmaker in Russia said that people could rise up and stage a revolution like the Bolsheviks did in 1917.
Gennady Zyuganov, the longtime leader of Russia’s Communist Party, told the lower house of parliament that the meeting Putin convened with his ministers was the gloomiest in a long time, according to Reuters.
“If you (the government) do not urgently adopt financial, economic and other measures, by autumn a repeat of what happened in 1917 awaits us,” he said. “We don’t have the right to repeat that. Let’s take some decisions.”
Nonpayments crisis
Warnings about the economy have been building for months. Last June, Russian banks raised red flags on a potential debt crisis as high interest rates weighed on borrowers’ ability to pay off loans. Also that month, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs warned many companies were in “a pre-default situation.”
The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a state-backed Russian think tank, said in December the country could face a banking crisis by October if loan troubles worsen and depositors pull out their funds.
Earlier this year, Russian officials told Putin that a financial crisis could hit by the summer amid spiraling inflation. With companies feeling the squeeze of high rates and weaker consumption, more workers were going unpaid, getting furloughed, or seeing their hours cut. As a result, consumers were having trouble servicing their loans, raising concerns of a crash in the financial sector.
In fact, Russian statistics show that nonpayments of commercial bills hit a record high of $109 billion in January.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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烏軍再度「反攻」---- Sasha Vakulina
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Zelensky says Ukraine won’t withdraw from Donbas, 'won’t lose dignity' as peace talks stall on territory
Ukraine recaptures ‘most land since summer 2023’
下文後半部分報導：一個高科技應用在戰爭或戰場的活生生案例。
Ukraine is ramping up its counteroffensive regaining territories from Russian troops
Sasha Vakulina, 02/17/26
Ukrainian forces are ramping up the pace and the scale of Kyiv’s counteroffensive, after they have managed to wipe out weeks of Russia’s gains and liberated multiple small settlements in southeastern Ukraine in the region of Zaporizhzhia over the past week, reports show.
According to the US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW), the main Ukrainian advance has been recorded roughly 80 kilometres east of Zaporizhzhia city, where Russian forces had been making gains since the summer of 2025.
Ukrainian forces have also regained control of territory in north-eastern and eastern Ukraine, on the Kharkiv, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka fronts.
Kyiv troops started slowing down Russian troops about a week ago and in many areas largely stopped their advance.
The Starlink factor
The ISW stated that the Ukrainian counterattacks are likely leveraging the recent block on Russian forces’ access to Starlink.
From the beginning of February, Ukraine’s defence ministry and Elon Musk’s SpaceX have blocked Russian troops from using Starlink to operate and control attack drones over Ukraine.
Despite numerous statements from SpaceX that the company does not sell or ship Starlink to Russia and "does not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military," Ukrainian authorities informed the company that Moscow troops had been mounting Starlink systems on Russian attack drones to strike deeper into Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials said they collected evidence of “hundred” of attacks by Starlink- equipped drones. This allowed Russian operators to bypass Ukraine’s electronic defences that disable drones by jamming GPS and radio signals.
While SpaceX took necessary measures from its side, Ukraine also launched a verification of all Starlink terminals in the country in response to the unauthorised use of Starlink by Russian forces.
Since then, Russian troops and the Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers complained about communications and command and control issues on the battlefield.
Kyiv officials stated that the Russian military command is preparing for the summer 2026 offensive in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk direction or the Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia city direction — or both — but Russian forces are now struggling to seize the necessary starting positions to launch the offensive on the command’s intended timeline.
Ukrainian cyber forces’ operation
As Russian troops lost their unauthorised access to Starlink and as Kyiv introduced a mandatory registration and Starlink "whitelist system,” Moscow forces have been trying to find a solution and possibly a loophole in the regulations.
In turn, Ukrainian cyber forces posed as a Russian-linked activation service offering to help restore terminals that had been disconnected under the new registration rules.
Russian soldiers and operators were instructed to submit identifying information and the coordinates of their terminals under the guise that the devices would be reactivated through Ukrainian administrative service centres.
Ukrainian group later said it collected 2,420 data packets related to Russian-used terminals and transferred them to Ukrainian law enforcement and defence agencies.
The data was then provided to authorities "for final transfer into brick mode," meaning the disabling of the terminals.
Ukrainian cyber forces claim the terminals were subsequently deactivated.
The group also said it received €5,000 from Russian soldiers seeking to restore connectivity. The money was donated to Ukrainian drone fundraising efforts.
The operation also helped identify 31 Ukrainian "traitors" who were allegedly willing to assist Russian forces by registering terminals. According to the statement, that information has been forwarded to Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU).
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俄、烏和議進行中 ------ John Revill
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Ukraine, Russia begin Geneva talks as Trump piles new pressure on Kyiv
John Revill, 02/17/26
Summary
* US-mediated talks in Geneva follow two rounds in Abu Dhabi
* Land remains the key sticking point in the talks
* Hopes are low for any major breakthrough
* Talks come ahead of fourth anniversary of Russian invasion
GENEVA, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia began two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Geneva on Tuesday that will focus on the main sticking point of land, with U.S. President Donald Trump pressing Kyiv to act fast to reach a deal.
Trump is urging Moscow and Kyiv to reach a deal to end Europe's biggest war since 1945, though Zelenskiy has complained that his country is facing the greatest pressure to make concessions.
Lead Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov said "security and humanitarian issues" would be on the agenda.
"We are working constructively, focused and without excessive expectations," he posted on X. "Our task is to maximally advance those solutions that can bring sustainable peace closer."
HEAVY AIRSTRIKES ON UKRAINE OVERNIGHT
Ahead of the talks, Russia carried out heavy airstrikes overnight across swathes of Ukraine, inflicting severe damage to the power network in the southern port city of Odesa, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said left tens of thousands without heat and water.
Zelenskiy called for Kyiv's allies to increase pressure on Russia to reach a "real and just" peace deal via tougher sanctions and weapons supplies to Ukraine.
Trump pointed to Ukraine when asked by reporters what he was expecting from the talks in Geneva, which were following a morning of negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials at a different venue in the Swiss lakeside city.
"Well, we have big talks," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. "It's going to be very easy. I mean, look, so far, Ukraine better come to the table fast. That's all I'm telling you."
Russia is demanding that Ukraine cede the remaining 20% of the eastern region of Donetsk that Moscow has failed to capture - something Kyiv refuses to do.
"This time, the idea is to discuss a broader range of issues, including, in fact, the main ones. The main issues concern both the territories and everything else related to the demands we have put forward," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday.
NEGOTIATING TWO CRISES AT ONCE
The venue has switched to Geneva after Abu Dhabi hosted two rounds of talks that both sides described as constructive but which failed to reach any major breakthrough.
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were representing the Trump administration at the talks, a source told Reuters.
In a rare attempt to negotiate two major global crises simultaneously, they attended the morning indirect negotiations with Iranian officials in Geneva before crossing town to mediate the talks between Ukraine and Russia.
The Geneva round comes just days before the fourth anniversary, on February 24, of Russia's full-scale invasion of its much smaller neighbour. Tens of thousands of people have been killed, millions have fled their homes, and many Ukrainian cities, towns and villages have been devastated by the conflict.
"One shouldn't trust the Russians absolutely, not even a little," said Oksana Reviakina, 41, an internally displaced person from the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, when asked about the talks while sheltering in a Kyiv metro station during an air-raid alert.
Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine's national territory, including Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas region seized before the 2022 invasion. Its recent airstrikes on energy infrastructure have left hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians without heating and power during the course of a harsh winter.
EXPECTATIONS LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BREAKTHROUGH
The Kremlin said the Russian delegation was being led by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to President Vladimir Putin.
However, the fact that Ukrainian negotiators have accused Medinsky in the past of lecturing them about history as an excuse for Russia's invasion has further lowered expectations for any significant breakthrough in Geneva.
Military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov will also take part in the talks, while Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev will be part of a separate working group on economic issues.
Speaking at the annual Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Zelenskiy said he hoped the Geneva talks would prove "serious, substantive... but honestly sometimes it feels like the sides are talking about completely different things".
Kyiv's delegation is led by Rustem Umerov, the secretary of Ukraine's national security and defence council, and Zelenskiy's chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov. Senior presidential aide Serhiy Kyslytsya is also present.
Before the delegation left for Geneva, Umerov said Ukraine's goal of "a sustainable and lasting peace" remained unchanged.
As well as land, Russia and Ukraine also remain far apart on issues such as who should control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the possible role of Western troops in postwar Ukraine.
Writing by Dan Flynn; Reporting by John Revill, additional reporting by Olena Harmash and Max Hunder in Kyiv, and Steve Holland aboard Air Force One; Editing by Gareth Jones, Ros Russell and Alex Richardson
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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