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中國經濟之狀況篇 – 開欄文
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瀏覽3,555 ｜回應25｜推薦1 |
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六月底各種經濟報表公佈，指數披露。中國的經濟狀況不如預期；唱衰之聲四起，見以下本欄彭博社的報導。我只看到《雅虎財經》上摩根史坦利的預測仍然看好中國經濟前景。
世事無常，未來難測；在此將各家分析存檔備查。到了九月底和今年年底，再做個檢驗印證。或許可以看出：誰有認知偏差；誰的資料不夠周全；誰的分析解讀功力鴉鴉烏。
可參看本城市《中國經濟體系正在進行(？)結構性改革》一文，和《中國相關新聞三則》一欄下《中國經濟糟透了》一文；以及《中國經濟之計劃篇》一欄。
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中國經濟：北京觀點--George Friedman
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作者自有他的「論述前提」和「判斷力場」；因此，有些話聽聽就好；例如：
“… the root of which, for China, was a decision a few years ago to threaten the United States with potential future military action. The threat was an unrealized bluff, … “
Beijing’s View of the Chinese Economy
George Friedman, 04/22/24
At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun (劉元春), who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, made some stark remarks about the state of the Chinese economy.
Liu said that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were far worse than expected and that the fiscal standing of local governments is deteriorating quicker than thought. Seismic, structural shifts are happening rapidly, and more non-economic risks are emerging than economic ones. All of this has created imbalances that Beijing is struggling to navigate. According to Liu, China’s development in the recent past and immediate future will be marked by such disequilibrium, and striking a new balance will take time.
He went on to say these challenges from within – and the economic competition from powers without – are more daunting than the ones of a decade ago, when China was able to achieve double-digit economic growth. Growth now is much more uneven, of course, and even President Xi Jinping seems to have admitted as much when he called moderate growth the “new normal.” Evidence to that effect can be seen in China’s overcapacity issues, with the producer price index declining in March by 2.8 percent year on year, while languishing in the negative range for the 17th straight month. Supply-demand disequilibrium is apparent, too, with the first quarter’s utilization rate at just 73.6 percent, down some 7 percentage points. In short, capacity is sitting idle.
Liu also warned that the consumer price index, which grew in March by 0.1 percent year on year after expanding by 0.7 percent in February, is too off-kilter to achieve Beijing’s targeted supply-demand balance of 2-3 percent.
Perhaps most importantly, Liu said that these and other economic imbalances are here to stay. The downturn in the property market is particularly noteworthy. Property-sector investments fell in the first quarter of 2024 by 9.5 percent year over year, with total sales dropping by 27.6 percent. In other words, the days of the property sector being a “super pillar” of the Chinese economy are gone. (The sector used to account for nearly 11 percent of gross domestic product but stood at nearly 6 percent as of 2023.) Beijing is looking to other sectors such as high-tech manufacturing and electric vehicles to fill the void, but so far they have yet to do so.
What makes the statements made by Liu – who is an adviser to Xi, meaning his speech was likely approved by the president himself – so important is that they indicate Beijing is finally coming to terms with the obvious. The long-held conventional wisdom was that China’s would be an unending surge, but even in the heyday of growth, its economy was limited and unbalanced. But economic risks are expanding amid geopolitical uncertainties, the root of which, for China, was a decision a few years ago to threaten the United States with potential future military action. The threat was an unrealized bluff, but its most important outcome was to convince the U.S. that it was real.
Under those circumstances, the U.S. government adopted a hostile economic posture toward China, and private corporations in the United States saw an increased risk in operating there. Rather than increase economic activity to placate the U.S., Beijing sought the opposite outcome, curbing its access to U.S. investment. That created another imbalance, this one based on the assumption that Chinese exports to the U.S. and U.S. investment in China would not dip low enough to seriously threaten the economy.
Economists like Liu focus on the economics of a given event, but the real question is political. How private industry will respond is important; more important is how the public will respond. In China, economic fumbling can create desperate citizens and launch the country into uncharted territory. The government is working hard to contain unrest, and it seems to have now adopted a strategy of honesty – a rarity for any government. Even so, its admission is less a matter of altruism than it is a matter of strategy.
George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures.
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中國經濟開局良好：國際社會對中國高品質發展充滿期待 ---- 央視網
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我無意做任何團體、政黨、或國家的啦啦隊員。轉載這篇文章的目的，主要在「存檔備查」；等到未來第二、三、四季報告出爐後，有一個比對的基礎。
中國經濟開局良好提振全球信心 國際社會對中國高品質發展充滿期待
中央廣電總台央視網，04/19/24
央視網消息：國家統計局4月16日發佈的資料顯示，初步核算，一季度，國內生產總值(GDP) 296,299億元，按不變價格計算，同比增長5.3%，比2023年四季度環比增長1.6%。國際人士表示，中國經濟開局良好，提振了全球信心，他們對中國高品質發展充滿期待。德國經濟界人士菲力克斯·薩默維爾-沙夫表示，最新發佈的資料展現出中國經濟穩中有進的積極態勢，各領域的高品質發展勢頭良好。中國擁有巨大的創新活力，在日常生活的方方面面都有體現。這也是為什麼德國總理朔爾茨要訪華，而且應該定期去，以確保德國和中國企業一道為中國高品質發展作貢獻，尤其在可持續發展、高新技術領域等加強交流。
哥倫比亞貿工部前外貿副部長安德列斯·卡德納斯表示，中國第一季度的經濟表現超出所有人預期，國內生產總值同比增長5.3%，這對國際社會來說是個好消息。中國是全球第二大經濟體，許多國家的經濟表現都依賴於中國，尤其是與中國簽署共建“一帶一路”倡議的國家，這對他們來說是一個好消息。因為中國戰略的一部分就是與這些合作夥伴、商業夥伴共同成長，世界應該對這一表現感到高興。
哈薩克經濟專家阿努阿爾·努爾塔津表示，特別值得一提的是投資增長資料。投資是經濟增長最主要的動力，而中國一季度投資增長資料非常樂觀，足以表明未來增長勢頭和前景非常明朗。
巴西聖保羅州立大學政治經濟學教授馬科斯·科代羅表示，中國提升了自己的生產能力，提高了產品品質，開發了新的品牌。在外部環境複雜的情況下，中國還大力開發內需市場，這支撐了中國經濟的強勁增長。
德國資深媒體人岡特拉姆·凱澤表示，中國的長遠規劃，從世界工廠邁向智造強國，發展創新技術和新質生產力，推動產業高品質發展的戰略非常正確。德國企業應該參與到這一進程中，作出貢獻並從中受益。
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中國第一季經濟數據分析 ----- Yashwardhan Jain
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ETF：指數股票型基金
Is China's Economic Rebound Genuine or a Mirage? Explore ETFs
Yashwardhan Jain, 04/17/24
Outpacing expectations, China’s economy grew 5.3% compared to a year ago in the first quarter of 2024, as the country’s factories ramped up production. According to CNBC, China’s economy performed better than expected according to the 4.6% growth as estimated by a Reuters poll.
Additionally, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, China's GDP increased 1.6%, exceeding the anticipated 1.4% according to Reuters polls and marking an improvement from the revised 1.2% expansion in the previous quarter.
According to Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, as quoted on CNBC, robust external demand played a significant role in the country’s economy performing better than estimated, with export volume climbing an impressive 14% year on year. He also added that a weakening Yuan against the greenback further supports China’s exports, making it more cost effective.
China to Drive Global Growth?
As per Asian Development Bank (ADB), as quoted on CNBC, China will remain as the growth driver for the global economy even after experiencing an economic slowdown. Despite a deceleration in growth, according to ADB data, China is projected to contribute a significant 46% share of growth in developing Asia for the period of 2024-2025.
China’s economic significance is highlighted by its current share of global GDP, based on purchasing power parities exchange rates. It constitutes about 18% of global GDP and a substantial 48% of Asian GDP according to the metric.
Promising Growth Forecasts?
Driven by the robust manufacturing sector of China, Goldman Sachs revised its GDP growth upward for the country, as quoted on Reuters. The investment bank raised its projection for China's year-on-year GDP growth in 2024 to 5.0% from 4.8%.
Morgan Stanley shared similar optimism about China’s GDP growth, raising its forecast to 4.8% from the previously estimated 4.2%, according to CNBCTV18. The investment bank attributed the upward revision to better-than-expected export growth, fueled by resilient demand from the U.S. market and robust export volumes.
Per Reuters, economists at ANZ revised their 2024 growth forecast for China to 4.9% from the previous 4.2%, whereas BBVA maintained its projection at 4.8%, following growth in the first-quarter GDP reading.
Delving Into Contradictory Economic Signals
In spite of the optimistic growth forecasts for 2024, recent economic data paint a bleak picture for the world’s second-largest economy. As per CNBC, industrial output for the country saw modest growth, expanding 4.5% year on year but falling short of the anticipated 6%. Retail sales in China followed the same trend, growing 3.1% year on year, but came in below the projected 4.6%, highlighting sluggish consumer sentiment.
China’s real estate crisis persists, hindering its economic recovery efforts. According to Yahoo Finance, housing sales saw a significant fall of 33% in value in the January-February period from the previous year, marking the sharpest decline since May 2022.
New home sales, which are frequently seen as a key barometer for investment, sentiment, and price trends, continued to be incredibly slow. Authorities have attempted to boost sales by easing restrictions on home purchases, but new home sales are still relatively sluggish.
Per a Reuters article, Fitch revised its sovereign credit rating for China, downgrading it to negative, raising concerns over public finances. Borrowing confidence in the country is also noticeably lacking with new bank loans recording the slowest pace of growth on record, indicating that companies and households are not fully embracing the narrative of economic recovery just yet, according to the Yahoo Finance article.
Explore ETFs
For short-term strategies, investors may consider increasing their exposure to China ETFs to capitalize on the country’s better than expected economic performance, as economic challenges cast shadows over the long-term outlook. Analysts suggest that sustaining the momentum will be challenging without broader improvements.
Mounting geopolitical tensions contribute to heightened uncertainty, given the ongoing tensions with the United States across trade, technology and geopolitics.
Below, we highlight a few funds with exposure to the country.
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) has gained 2.42% over the past month.
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) has gained 1.56% over the past month.
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has gained 2.44% over the past month.
Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) has lost 0.61% over the past month.
SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) has gained 0.36% over the past month.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI): ETF Research Reports
SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC): ETF Research Reports
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI): ETF Research Reports
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB): ETF Research Reports
Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR): ETF Research Reports
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中國第一季經濟數據-Zen Soo
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China's economy grew 5.3% in first quarter, beating expectations, though weak spots remain
China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter of the year with help from policies and stronger demand, though signs of weakness persisted
ZEN SOO, AP business writer, 04/16/24
HONG KONG -- China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter of the year with help from policies and stronger demand, though signs of weakness in the troubled housing market persisted.
The world’s second-largest economy expanded at a 5.3% annual pace in January-March, beating analysts’ forecasts of about 4.8%, data released Tuesday showed. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy grew 1.6%.
China’s economy has struggled to bounce back from the COVID-19 pandemic but gained momentum late last year as government policies to help the housing market and boost investment took effect.
However, Tuesday's better-than-expected data came days after China reported its exports sank 7.5% in March compared to the year before, while imports also weakened. Inflation cooled, reflecting deflationary pressures resulting from slack demand amid a crisis in the property sector.
Investment in property developments fell 9.5% from a year earlier in January-March, compared with a decline of 9% in the previous quarter.
“The investment and sales of real estate in the first quarter are indeed not very optimistic. The real estate market is still in a process of adjustment,” Sheng Laiyun, deputy commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters in Beijing.
Sheng also acknowledged that while growth was stronger than anticipated, it was uneven. Investment in infrastructure such as roads and bridges rose 6.5% year-on-year after a 6% increase in the previous quarter.
Fixed investment, in factories and equipment, grew 4.5% compared to the same period a year earlier, up from 4.2% in the previous quarter.
China's leaders have been trying to recalibrate growth away from investment spending and toward a greater reliance on consumer demand, similar to other major economies.
While retail sales climbed 4.7% in January-March, growth in March was only 3.1% year-on-year.
“Looking at the degree of recovery, we have found that the recovery of consumption is not as good as production, and the recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises is not as good as that of large enterprises, so there is a clear imbalance in the economic recovery," Sheng said.
Industrial output for the first quarter was up 6.1% compared to the same time last year, but it rose only 4.5% in March.
The strong growth in January-March was supported by “broad manufacturing outperformance,” festivities-boosted household spending due to the Lunar New Year holidays and policies that helped boost investments, according to China economist Louise Loo of Oxford Economics.
“However, ‘standalone’ March activity indicators suggest weakness coming through post-Lunar New Year,” she said. “External demand conditions also remain unpredictable, as seen in March’s sharp export underperformance.”
Loo noted that an unwinding of excess inventory, normalization of household spending after the holidays and a cautious approach to government spending and other stimulus will affect growth in this quarter.
Policymakers have unveiled a raft of fiscal and monetary policy measures as Beijing seeks to boost the economy. China has set an ambitious gross domestic product (GDP) growth target of about 5% for 2024.
Such strong growth usually would push share prices across the region higher. But on Tuesday, Asian shares fell sharply after stocks retreated on Wall Street.
The Shanghai Composite index lost 1.47% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 2.1%. The benchmark for the smaller market in Shenzhen, in southern China, lost 3.8%.
Stronger growth in the region's biggest economy normally would be seen as a positive for its neighbors, which increasingly rely on demand from China to power their own economies. However, strong growth figures are also viewed as a signal that the government will hold back on further stimulus.
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2023年中國國民經濟和社會發展統計公報 -- 新華社
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全年國內生產總值1260582億元，比上年增長5.2%。其中，第一產業增加值89755億元，比上年增長4.1%；第二產業增加值482589億元，增長4.7%；第三產業增加值688238億元，增長5.8%。第一產業增加值佔國內生產總值比重為7.1%，第二產業增加值比重為38.3%，第三產業增加值比重為54.6%。最終消費支出拉動國內生產總值增長4.3個百分點，資本形成總額拉動國內生產總值增長1.5個百分點，貨物和服務浄出口向下拉動國內生產總值0.6個百分點。分季度看，一季度國內生產總值同比增長4.5%，二季度增長6.3%，三季度增長4.9%，四季度增長5.2%。全年人均國內生產總值89358元，比上年增長5.4%。國民總收入1251297億元，比上年增長5.6%。全員勞動生產率為161615元/人，比上年提高5.7%。
年末全國人口140967萬人，比上年末減少208萬人，其中城鎮常住人口93267萬人。全年出生人口902萬人，出生率為6.39‰；死亡人口1110萬人，死亡率為7.87‰；自然增長率為 -1.48‰。
年末全國就業人員74041萬人，其中城鎮就業人員47032萬人，佔全國就業人員比重為63.5%。全年城鎮新增就業1244萬人，比上年多增38萬人。全年全國城鎮調查失業率平均值為5.2%。年末全國城鎮調查失業率為5.1%。全國農民工總量29753萬人，比上年增長0.6%。其中，外出農民工17658萬人，增長2.7%；本地農民工12095萬人，下降2.2%。
全年居民消費價格比上年上漲0.2%。工業生產者出廠價格下降3.0%。工業生產者購進價格下降3.6%。農產品生產者價格下降2.3%。12月份，70個大中城市中，新建商品住宅銷售價格同比上漲的城市個數為20個，持平的為2個，下降的為48個；二手住宅銷售價格同比上漲的城市個數為1個，下降的為69個。
年末國家外匯儲備32380億美元，比上年末增加1103億美元。全年人民幣平均匯率為1美元兌7.0467元人民幣，比上年貶值4.5%。
新動能成長壯大。全年規模以上工業中，裝備製造業增加值比上年增長6.8%，佔規模以上工業增加值比重為33.6%；高技術製造業增加值增長2.7%，佔規模以上工業增加值比重為15.7%。新能源汽車產量944.3萬輛，比上年增長30.3%；太陽能電池（光伏電池）產量5.4億千瓦，增長54.0%；服務機器人產量783.3萬套，增長23.3%；3D列印設備產量278.9萬臺，增長36.2%。規模以上服務業中，戰略性新興服務業企業營業收入比上年增長7.7%。高技術產業投資比上年增長10.3%，製造業技術改造投資增長3.8%。電子商務交易額468273億元，比上年增長9.4%。網上零售額154264億元，比上年增長11.0%。全年新設經營主體3273萬戶，日均新設企業2.7萬戶。
城鄉融合和區域協調發展步伐穩健。年末全國常住人口城鎮化率為66.16%，比上年末提高0.94個百分點。分區域看，全年東部地區生產總值652084億元，比上年增長5.4%；中部地區生產總值269898億元，增長4.9%；西部地區生產總值269325億元，增長5.5%；東北地區生產總值59624億元，增長4.8%。全年京津冀地區生產總值104442億元，比上年增長5.1%；長江經濟帶地區生產總值584274億元，增長5.5%；長江三角洲地區生產總值305045億元，增長5.7%。粵港澳大灣區建設、黃河流域生態保護和高品質發展等區域重大戰略深入推進。
綠色低碳轉型深入推進。全年全國萬元國內生產總值二氧化碳排放與上年持平。水電、核電、風電、太陽能發電等清潔能源發電量31906億千瓦時，比上年增長7.8%。在監測的339個地級及以上城市中，空氣品質達標的城市佔59.9%，未達標的城市佔40.1%。3641個國家地表水考核斷面中，水質優良（I~III類）斷面比例為89.4%，IV類斷面比例為8.4%，V類斷面比例為1.5%，劣V類斷面比例為0.7%。
小編：
【保釣論壇】老友胡承渝兄寄來《 2023年中國國民經濟和社會發展統計公報》的要點如上。是否為他自己整理，我沒有去信查詢。轉登於此，備查並供網友參考。
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大失血之中國股市 ----- Caleb Naysmith
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Chinese President Xi Jinping Grappling With $7 Trillion Downturn As Country's Debt Levels Soar, Real Estate Collapses And Markets Pull Back Over 21% From 2021 Highs
Caleb Naysmith, 02/20/24
As China grapples with the fallout from a $7 trillion stock decline, officials are gearing up to brief President Xi Jinping on measures to stabilize the market. This move signifies Beijing’s urgency to restore investor confidence and halt the market’s slide, which has erased a significant value from Hong Kong and China equities since their 2021 peaks. The Shanghai Composite Index, for example, is down over 21% from its high in December 2021.
The downturn has been attributed to a variety of factors, including regulatory crackdowns, geopolitical tensions, real estate defaults and internal economic pressures, prompting a call for decisive action to prevent further damage to consumer confidence, especially as the country approached the Lunar New Year holiday.
China’s real estate sector has been grappling with significant challenges, culminating in a crisis that has reverberated through the country’s economy. The crisis was highlighted by the downfall of China Evergrande, Group one of China’s largest property developers, which became emblematic of the broader issues plaguing the sector. Evergrande’s aggressive expansion, characterized by a rapid acquisition of land and significant borrowing, eventually led to its financial distress. This situation underscored the broader vulnerabilities within China’s real estate market, including high levels of debt, a slowdown in property sales and regulatory changes aimed at curbing speculative investments.
The crisis has had wide-ranging implications, not only for property developers but also for the Chinese economy as a whole. The real estate sector, a critical engine of economic growth in China, has faced $125 billion in bond defaults between 2020 and 2023. This slump has contributed to layoffs, financial instability and a dampening effect on China’s post-pandemic economic recovery.
China’s economic challenges are multifaceted, stemming from a post-COVID recovery that has fallen short of expectations. Despite hopes that the end of stringent COVID-19 restrictions would rejuvenate consumer spending, foreign investment and manufacturing, the reality has been starkly different. Consumers are saving more than spending, foreign firms are withdrawing investments, and the property sector, along with local government finances, has been severely impacted. These developments raise doubts about the sustainability of China’s growth model, which has long been driven by construction and investment over consumption.
The leadership’s response has been to pledge a boost in domestic demand and economic recovery for 2024, with a focus on supporting the economy through more stimulus measures. Yet, the effectiveness of these initiatives remains to be seen, as previous measures have underwhelmed market expectations and investor confidence. The government is advocating for a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, aiming to enhance economic vitality and address the risks and imbalances plaguing the economy. Nonetheless, the path to a sustainable recovery appears complex, with challenges such as managing high levels of debt, stimulating consumption and navigating geopolitical tensions.
In the face of these challenges, China’s efforts to communicate its strategies and reassure both the domestic and international communities have encountered skepticism. Analysts highlight a growing disconnect between official optimism and the realities faced by businesses and consumers. This gap underscores the need for more transparent and effective policy communication to restore confidence in China’s economic direction and stability.
Investor confidence is wavering amid this uncertainty, exacerbated by Xi's centralized control over economic policy, which has slowed decision-making and policy communication. The stock market has felt the impact, with significant value lost since 2021. Despite attempts by the central bank to inject liquidity, these measures have yet to convince markets of a turnaround. The policy response has been criticized for being too late or insufficiently robust to alter the negative economic trajectory.
The political landscape under Xi's leadership has shifted toward more centralized decision-making, with an emphasis on “stability” and “common prosperity.” However, this approach has led to challenges in addressing China’s economic complexities, including an over-indebted property sector and murky financial systems. Moreover, Xi’s regulatory crackdowns across various industries have rattled investors and raised concerns about the legal environment for foreign businesses. Despite the establishment of the National Financial Regulatory Administration aimed at addressing regulatory gaps, investor apprehension persists.
As China navigates these turbulent waters, the focus shifts to finding new drivers of economic growth. While the electric vehicle and green energy sectors have shown promise, the semiconductor industry and other high-tech areas face hurdles, including U.S. sanctions and internal inefficiencies. Beijing’s industrial policy, aiming to shift away from traditional growth engines like property and exports, underscores a strategic pivot toward innovation-driven development. However, the success of these measures in rejuvenating the economy and restoring investor confidence remains to be seen.
The situation underscores a critical juncture for China’s economy, with implications for global markets and industries reliant on Chinese growth. As Beijing contemplates its next steps, the world watches closely to see how one of the largest economies navigates these turbulent times, striving to balance growth, stability, and reform in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
This article is also on yahoo！finance.
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中國股市難救-T. Westbrook/S. Zhen
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姑妄聽之。請參見《《中國金融業進一步對外開放》讀後》一欄的相關報導/評論。
Analysis-Why China's national team won't save spiralling markets
Tom Westbrook/Summer Zhen, 02/05/24
SINGAPORE/HONG KONG (Reuters) - For a second day running state-backed buying likely scraped Chinese stocks from multi-year lows. Investors doubt the support will last and warn it leaves markets unbalanced and unstable.
Formed in response to a market crash in 2015, the so called "national team" of Chinese state-backed investors poured $17 billion into index-tracking funds last month and were piling in on Friday and Monday as markets fell, analysts say.
On both days, the Shanghai Composite index slid suddenly to five-year lows before recovering simultaneously with surges in turnover at blue-chip stock tracking index funds.[.SS]
But analysts and investors say propping up the market with cash can't be sustained and won't provide a lasting turnaround as long as the property sector remains weak and a weight on consumer and investor confidence. The task is also giant: mainland stocks are worth nearly $9 trillion.
"This effect may resemble the outcome observed during the 2015 boom-and-bust cycle," said Dennis Yang, Professor of Business Administration at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business.
"The short-term solution is unlikely to be sufficient for restoring long-term confidence among global investors without addressing the underlying issues in the Chinese economy."
In 2015 with a vastly more favourable economic backdrop the effect of "national team" buying was debatable and in any case, it took months for markets to find a bottom and more than five years for the blue-chip CSI300 to regain its peak.
This time analysts say similar buying has been evident for months - with S&P Global Market Intelligence tracking more than $17 billion into blue-chip tracking funds last month - but there is no resolution in sight to the core growth problem.
"China's economy is shifting away from infrastructure and property investment and towards higher value-added industries," said Ben Bennett, Asia-Pacific investment strategist at Legal & General Investment Management.
"Recent stimulus is trying to ease the transition by focusing on the symptoms such as decelerating credit growth and volatile equity markets. But the transition is still taking place, so such policies can only have a limited impact."
QUESTIONABLE
The underperformance of China's markets is stark, as are signals that investor trust and patience are spent.
Numerous market-focused support measures such as restrictions on short-selling or reductions in trading duties have also failed to staunch the selloff, as have a number of government statements promising support but lacking details.
Most big investors say they are waiting for a spending package to help households. There has been no official confirmation of a Bloomberg News report of a mooted 2 trillion yuan stockmarket bailout fund.
"Consumers face multiple crises of confidence in debt, property, and employment, emphasising the multifaceted challenges confronting China's economy," said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner & CIO of Running Point Capital Advisors.
"The effectiveness of the market rescue ... is questionable if it does not address weak aggregate demand or the deeper issues in the property market," he said. "Beijing's historical market interventions have shown short-lived impacts."
Foreign investors sold a net 18.2 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) in Chinese equities last month to notch a sixth straight month of outflows.
The has fallen six months in a row, losing 20%, while world shares added 5%. Small domestic investors are scrambling to buy funds tracking foreign shares.
To be sure, there are speculators circling who think that Chinese stocks are so cheap as to be bargain value. And the entry of state-backed investors could bend markets and open opportunities to follow the "national team" into index funds.
"The rescue is unbalanced, they mainly save the central (state-owned enterprises) and the blue-chip CSI 300 stocks," said Pang Xichun, research director at Nanjing RiskHunt Investment Management.
He recommends taking long positions in such state-owned companies and shorting small companies. While not exactly a bet on improvement, such a position - at least for now - may be profitable. The CSI 300 finished Monday up 0.7% and the small-cap index down 6.2%.
($1 = 7.1963 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Reuters' Shanghai newsroom and Summer Zhen in Hong Kong; Writing by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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2023年中國外貿數據 -- 南生今世說
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公佈啦！2023年中國外貿：按人民幣計算增長0.2%，按美元算下降5%
南生今世說，2024-01-12 ，發佈於廣東財經領域創作者
(請參閱本欄《《2023年中國經濟相關報導四則》讀後》)
與大家之前預想的一致，我國2023年對外貨物類商品貿易整體格局是“偏弱，低於中國經濟整體發展水準”。按人民幣計算，進出口總金額為417,568.3億元，僅小幅增長0.2%。
2023年12月全國進出口總值表(人民幣值) (請至原網頁參看圖表)
其中，出口商品金額為237,725.9億元，同比提升0.6%；進口商品金額為179,842.4，同比縮減0.3%。無論是觀察出口、進口，還是看進出口，都是弱勢復蘇，外部需求低迷，外貿企業壓力較大。
曾經的主要動能 -- 對外貿易，反而成了中國經濟復蘇的重要拖累。但值得慶倖的是，出口商品金額增長力度，再度超過了進口，對外貿易“淨出口”，也就是順差反而因此創下新高了。
從美元角度來看，整體在下降
2023年，中國進出口商品總金額降至59,368.3億，同比縮減5% -- 這是人民幣匯率貶值，特別是在前三季度大幅貶值基礎上帶來的結果。即便第四季度的匯率有所回升，但也不能拯救全年的低迷。
2023年12月全國進出口總值表(美元值) (請至原網頁參看圖表)
其中，出口商品金額為33,800.2億美元，同比縮減4.6%；進口商品金額在2023年全年為25,568億美元，同比下降5.5% -- 外貿順差為8,232.2億美元，再度領跑全球。
對於外貿順差，南生的看法可能和大多數網友不一致，我提倡的是外貿均衡。我國在對外貿易中獲得的貿易順差不是黃金、白銀這樣的硬通貨，而是美元、歐元、英鎊、人民幣，甚至是盧布。
不論是何種形式的貨幣，都不可避免地要被通貨膨脹侵蝕。今年賺來的超過8,200億美元的順差，其購買力在數年後就很可能會減少10%到20%。與其這樣被美、歐、日、英等國變相拿走，不如加強從友好國家、中立國家、資源和能源豐富的國家大量進口中國需要的黃金、白銀、鐵礦石、銅礦石、煤炭、石油、天然氣、稀土、糧食、豬牛羊肉、水產品、奶粉、棉花、木材、水果……。
中國出口商品結構進一步優化
中國2023年的對外貿易整體偏弱，這一方面是因為國際經濟發展趨勢走弱，導致外部訂單難以持續提升；另一方面則是因為我國勞動密集型產業在向越南、印度、墨西哥等國轉移。
這是舊的動能在衰減，成為拖累中國外貿的重要原因。但其中也有亮點，那就是新興產業、高科技產業正在穩健增長，出口商品結構進一步優化，正在向全球產業鏈的高端邁進。
我們來看幾組資料，中國在2023年成為全球最大的汽車出口國，包括底盤在內的汽車出口金額猛增至7,165.1億元，同比暴漲76.8%。我國，已成為全球新能源汽車設計、生產的領導者。
在汽車出口高速增長帶動下，汽車零部件出口上漲14.9%；通用機械設備出口金額增長7.4%，家用電器出口增長9.9%……。
還有造船業！中國船企在2023年新承接訂單總量高達2,492萬修正總噸，市占率達到59.8%。而韓國船企新承接訂單量占比卻降至24.2%。曾經和我國並跑的韓國造船企業，越來越不行了。
國家統計局公開的出口資料顯示，中國船舶出口金額大漲35.4%。這裡面不僅有散貨船、集裝箱船、油船，還有附加值較高的甲醇雙燃料或LNG雙燃料新型綠色船型，豪華級遊輪等。
總之，在美歐強調脫鉤，產業鏈外遷等因素影響下，中國外貿高速發展時代可能難以再現了。政策著力點應強化外貿結構優化升級、加快培育以高技術、高附加值、綠色低碳等為特點的外貿新動能。
本文由南生整理並撰寫，無授權請勿轉載、抄襲！(卜凱：抱歉啦！)
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2023年中國經濟成績單 ----- 方彬楠/程靚
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2023年中國經濟成績單
北京商報，方彬楠/程靚，2024-01-18
(請參閱本欄《《2023年中國經濟相關報導四則》讀後》；並請至原網頁參看要點圖示)
1月17日，國務院新聞辦就2023年國民經濟運行情況舉行發佈會。會上，國家統計局發佈資料顯示，2023年，國內生產總值1,260,582億元，按不變價格計算，同比增長5.2%；社會消費品零售總額471,495億元，同比增長7.2%，總量創歷史新高，其中服務消費較快回暖，服務零售額同比增長20%；服務業增長較快，同比增長5.8%。
國家統計局局長康義表示，消費成為2023年帶動經濟恢復的重要力量，2024年，支撐消費持續回升的有利條件比較多，消費仍然會保持較好的增長。同時，服務消費較為活躍，服務業增長將繼續成為帶動吸納就業的主要力量之一。
消費規模創新高，服務消費回暖快
資料顯示，社會消費品零售總額471,495億元，同比增長7.2%，其中服務消費較快回暖，服務零售額同比增長20%。
“總的來說，2023年消費市場恢復向好。疫情三年消費市場受到衝擊比較大，不少接觸型、聚集型的消費都受到抑制，隨著疫情防控平穩轉段，經濟社會全面恢復常態化運行，消費呈現出好的恢復態勢，熱點亮點頻多，消費成為2023年帶動經濟恢復的重要力量。”康義說。
具體來看，消費規模再創新高，2023年社會消費品零售總額超過47萬億元，總量創歷史新高；消費重新成為經濟增長的主動力，2023年，最終消費支出拉動經濟增長4.3個百分點，比上年提高3.1個百分點，對經濟增長的貢獻率是82.5%，提高了43.1個百分點，消費的基礎性作用更加顯著。
服務消費較快回暖，也是2023年消費恢復的一大亮點，服務零售額比上年增長了20%，快於商品零售額14.2個百分點；居民人均服務性消費支出增長14.4%，占居民人均消費支出的比重達到45.2%，比上年提升2個百分點。此外，居民消費的結構升級態勢持續，特別是人民生活水準的提升，收入的穩定增長，目前我國正處在居民消費結構快速升級的時期。
服務業增長較快，持續帶動吸納就業
去年全年服務業增長較快，接觸型、聚集型服務業明顯改善。據悉，2023年服務業增加值比2022年增長5.8%。其中，住宿和餐飲業，資訊傳輸、軟體和資訊技術服務業，租賃和商務服務業，交通運輸、倉儲和郵政業，金融業，批發和零售業增加值分別增長14.5%、11.9%、9.3%、8%、6.8%、6.2%。
具體來看，2023年12月，服務業生產指數同比增長8.5%；其中，住宿和餐飲業，資訊傳輸、軟體和資訊技術服務業生產指數分別增長34.8%、13.8%。2023年1—11月，規模以上服務業企業營業收入同比增長8.5%。
康義表示，過去一年，經濟結構優化升級，服務業和消費的經濟增長主引擎作用更加凸顯。資料顯示，2023年服務業增加值占GDP比重達到54.6%，比上年提高1.2個百分點；最終消費支出對經濟增長的貢獻率達到82.5%，比上年提高43.1個百分點。
此外，康義還指出，相較其他產業，勞動密集度較高的服務業在吸納就業方面優勢明顯。“去年以來服務業恢復勢頭較好，在GDP中的占比也在提高，服務業占GDP的比重已經超過疫情前水準，餐飲、交通、批發零售等行業的就業帶動作用比較明顯。展望今年，服務消費較為活躍，服務業增長將繼續成為帶動吸納就業的主要力量之一。”
支撐回升有利條件多，消費仍會保持較好增長
對於2024年的消費市場趨勢，康義表示，“支撐消費持續回升的有利條件比較多，消費仍然會保持較好的增長”。
康義指出，支撐因素主要有四方面，首先是消費潛力仍然巨大。14億多的人口，超大規模市場的優勢依然明顯，加之城鄉融合發展、城鎮化進程推進、消費結構持續升級，這些都為消費增長提供了廣闊空間。特別是醫療、健康等消費潛力有望進一步釋放。
其次是消費基礎不斷鞏固。收入是消費的前提和基礎，隨著經濟持續恢復，就業形勢總體改善，居民收入有望保持穩定增長，將有力支撐居民消費能力的提升。同時，消費亮點不斷湧現。數字消費、綠色消費、健康消費、文娛消費等都快速發展，智慧家居、文娛旅遊、體育賽事、國貨潮品這樣一些消費熱點也在不斷升溫，不斷為消費市場提質擴容增添動力。
此外，促消費政策持續發力。各地區各部門堅持把恢復擴大消費擺在優先位置，相繼出臺一系列促消費政策，著力穩定和擴大傳統消費、培育壯大新型消費、持續優化消費環境，將繼續對穩定消費市場、促進消費恢復起到積極的作用。
根據中央經濟工作會議，2024年要著力擴大國內需求，激發有潛能的消費。包括，將重點培育壯大新型消費，支持直播電商、即時零售等新業態新模式健康發展，打造數實融合消費新場景，激發數位消費活力。擴大綠色消費，促進健康消費，推動國貨“潮品”消費；穩定和擴大傳統消費。全鏈條促進汽車消費，組織開展新能源汽車下鄉，提振新能源汽車消費，擴大家居消費，促進家電消費；推動擴大服務消費，打造餐飲消費熱點，擴大家政服務消費。優化消費環境，逐步完善以步行街為引領、智慧商圈為支撐、便民生活圈為基礎的城市商業體系，便利居民消費。將加快補齊鄉村商業短板，高品質發展農村電商，深入實施“數商興農”，便利工業品“下鄉”和農產品“進城”，釋放鄉村消費潛力。
北京商報記者 方彬楠 程靚
·延伸閱讀·：我國就業形勢總體改善
就業是最大的民生，過去一年，我國就業形勢總體改善。1月17日，國家統計局發佈資料顯示，2023全年全國城鎮調查失業率平均值為5.2%，比上年下降0.4個百分點，農民工、青年人、就業困難人員等群體的就業得到有效保障。有關分析指出，展望新年，就業形勢壓力依然存在，但隨著經濟回升向好，產業轉型升級加快，穩就業的積極因素也在不斷積累，我國就業形勢有望保持穩定。
城鎮失業率均值5.2%
1月17日，國家統計局發佈資料顯示，2023全年全國城鎮調查失業率平均值為5.2%，比上年下降0.4個百分點。12月，全國城鎮調查失業率為5.1%。31個大城市城鎮調查失業率為5%。全國企業就業人員周平均工作時間為49小時。全年農民工總量29,753萬人，比上年增加191萬人，增長0.6%。其中，本地農民工12,095萬人，下降2.2%；外出農民工17,658萬人，增長2.7%。農民工月均收入水準4,780元，比上年增長3.6%。
在當日舉行的2023年國民經濟運行情況發佈會上，國家統計局局長康義介紹，過去的一年，我國全力穩住了就業大局，就業形勢總體改善。1—11月城鎮新增就業人數是1,180萬人，同比多增35萬人。
同時，從重點群體和困難群體來看，農民工、青年人、就業困難人員等群體的就業得到有效保障。2023年，農民工總量達到29,753萬人，比上年增加191萬人，外來農業戶籍人口城鎮調查失業率均值是4.9%，比上年下降0.7個百分點。1—11月城鎮失業人員再就業人數475萬人，就業困難人員就業人數156萬人。此外，脫貧人口就業穩定增長，到2023年11月末，脫貧人口務工規模是3,294萬人，超過3,000萬的目標任務。
政策顯效但仍存壓力
“2023年我國城鎮調查失業率較上年下降0.4%，說明2023年各地穩就業政策收到了實效，通過促消費、促投資、穩外貿、穩增長等一攬子政策，推動了全年經濟復蘇和市場回暖，促進了全年就業增長和失業減少。”中國商業經濟學會副會長宋向清告訴北京商報記者。
值得注意的是，在1月17日舉行的2023年國民經濟運行情況發佈會上，康義提到，從就業看，就業形勢總體改善，特別是農民工就業形勢改善比較明顯。宋向清也關注到了這一點，他指出，農民工月平均收入增長3.6%，這個成績來之不易。
與此同時，康義也指出，今年的就業形勢，總的判斷是壓力依然存在，部分群體、部分行業就業的結構性矛盾問題仍會比較突出。中國民生銀行高級宏觀研究員王靜文也告訴北京商報記者，今年重點群體和困難群體就業狀況較好，這表明就業機會主要集中於一些薪酬偏低的崗位，整體就業壓力仍客觀存在。
此外，宋向清認為，就業市場還存在就業崗位專業性結構不合理、地區就業市場結構不均衡、部分新增大學畢業生、農民工、新市民等新增就業人員對就業城市的選擇彈性不大等問題。”宋向清表示。
2024年有望保持穩定
展望新年的就業形勢，宋向清認為，總體會是“壓力與動力兼有，困難與希望同在”。在承壓的同時，目前，也有多項資料顯示出了新一年就業形勢中的積極因素。
康義介紹，經濟增長是穩定和擴大就業的基礎。近年來，我國經濟增量不斷擴大是拉動就業增長的關鍵所在，2024年我國經濟創造的增量有望大於去年，這將為擴大就業提供有力支撐。同時，2024年退出勞動力市場的人口規模將大於新進入勞動力市場的人口規模，這也為尋找工作的人提供了更多就業空間。
此外，據康義介紹，相比於其他產業，勞動密集度較高的服務業在吸納就業方面優勢明顯。去年以來服務業恢復勢頭較好，在GDP中的占比也在提高，服務業占GDP的比重已經超過疫情前的水準，餐飲、交通、批發零售等行業的就業帶動作用比較明顯。“展望2024年，服務消費較為活躍，服務業增長將繼續成為帶動吸納就業的主要力量之一。與此同時，新產業、新業態、新商業模式蓬勃發展，產生許多全新的崗位需求，也有利於擴大就業空間，提升就業品質。”康義介紹，穩就業政策效應持續發力顯效，中央經濟工作會議對此也作了部署，各地區各部門將更加突出就業優先導向，加大重點群體就業幫扶力度，政策紅利釋放也有望繼續為就業穩定提供有力保障。
“2024年的就業形勢，總的判斷是壓力依然存在，部分群體、部分行業就業的結構性矛盾問題仍會比較突出。但是，隨著經濟回升向好，產業轉型升級加快，穩就業的積極因素也在不斷積累，我國就業形勢有望保持穩定。”康義表示。
北京商報記者 方彬楠 冉黎黎
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2023年經濟「成績單」速覽 -- 夏賓
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5.2%！一文速覽2023年經濟“成績單”
國是直通車，夏賓，2024-01-18
(請參閱本欄《《2023年中國經濟相關報導四則》讀後》)
17日，國家統計局發佈2023年全年的經濟“成績單”！
初步核算，全年國內生產總值1,260,582億元，按不變價格計算，比上年增長5.2%。分產業看，第一產業增加值89,755億元，比上年增長4.1%；第二產業增加值482,589億元，增長4.7%；第三產業增加值688,238億元，增長5.8%。
分季度看，一季度國內生產總值同比增長4.5%，二季度增長6.3%，三季度增長4.9%，四季度增長5.2%。從環比看，四季度國內生產總值增長1.0%。
2023年，中國經濟運行有哪些看點？
糧食產量再創新高，穩住“壓艙石”
2023年，全年全國糧食總產量69,541萬噸，比上年增加888萬噸，增長1.3%。其中，夏糧產量14,615萬噸，下降0.8%;早稻產量2,834萬噸，增長0.8%；秋糧產量52,092萬噸，增長1.9%。
分品種看，稻穀產量20,660萬噸，下降0.9%;小麥產量13,659萬噸，下降0.8%;玉米產量28,884萬噸，增長4.2%;大豆產量2,084萬噸，增長2.8%。油料產量3,864萬噸，增長5.7%。
工業生產穩步回升，裝備製造業增長較快
全年全國規模以上工業增加值比上年增長4.6%。
分三大門類看，採礦業增加值增長2.3%，製造業增長5.0%，電力、熱力、燃氣及水生產和供應業增長4.3%。裝備製造業增加值增長6.8%，增速比規模以上工業快2.2個百分點。
分經濟類型看，國有控股企業增加值增長5.0%；股份制企業增長5.3%，外商及港澳臺商投資企業增長1.4%；私營企業增長3.1%。
分產品看，太陽能電池、新能源汽車、發電機組(發電設備)產品產量分別增長54.0%、30.3%、28.5%。12月份，規模以上工業增加值同比增長6.8%，環比增長0.52%。1—11月份，全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額69823億元，同比下降4.4%；其中11月份增長29.5%，連續4個月增長。
服務業增長較快，接觸型聚集型服務業明顯改善
全年服務業增加值比上年增長5.8%。
其中，住宿和餐飲業，資訊傳輸、軟體和資訊技術服務業，租賃和商務服務業，交通運輸、倉儲和郵政業，金融業，批發和零售業增加值分別增長14.5%、11.9%、9.3%、8.0%、6.8%、6.2%。
12月份，服務業生產指數同比增長8.5%；其中，住宿和餐飲業，資訊傳輸、軟體和資訊技術服務業生產指數分別增長34.8%、13.8%。
1—11月份，規模以上服務業企業營業收入同比增長8.5%。其中，文化、體育和娛樂業，資訊傳輸、軟體和資訊技術服務業，租賃和商務服務業營業收入分別增長18.9%、12.8%、12.7%。
固定資產投資規模增加
2023年1至12月，全國固定資產投資(不含農戶)同比增長3.0%，增速較前11個月加快0.1百分點。
分領域看，基礎設施投資增長5.9%，製造業投資增長6.5%，房地產開發投資下降9.6%。
就業形勢穩，城鎮調查失業率降
2023年，全國城鎮調查失業率平均值為5.2%，比上年下降0.4個百分點。12月份，全國城鎮調查失業率為5.1%，比上月提高0.1個百分點，不包含在校生的16-24歲、25-29歲、30-59歲勞動力調查失業率分別為14.9%、6.1%、3.9%。
居民收入增加，農村增速快於城鎮
2023年，全國居民人均可支配收入39,218元，比上年名義增長6.3%，扣除價格因素，實際增長6.1%。分城鄉看，城鎮居民人均可支配收入51,821元，增長(以下如無特別說明，均為同比名義增長) 5.1%，扣除價格因素，實際增長4.8%；農村居民人均可支配收入21,691元，增長7.7%，扣除價格因素，實際增長7.6%。
來源：國是直通車 編輯：秦晶 責編：魏晞
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