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《中國經濟體系正在進行(?)結構性改革》讀後
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麥芽糖
胡卜凱

德米特先生引用王濤博士在金融時報》上的評論報導:

由於經濟體系的結構性改革」規劃面對當下遲緩的經濟成長,中國政府應該不會像以前(2008)那樣投入巨額資金來刺激景氣。

以我的解讀王濤博士大作的建議」性質高於她對中國政府經濟政策的「詮釋」。在此補充兩點拙見

a. 
中國政府的第一優先考量是維護政權的穩定和延續,這一點和其它任何政府沒有什麼不同,無可厚非。但在民主政體下,政黨的政權可以失而復得或東山再起。但在極權或獨裁政體下,事情就沒有這樣簡單;兩害相權時,飲鴆止渴就成為沒有辦法的辦法。中國經濟體系需要「結構性改革」至少喊了20年;終歸還是落了個年年想改年年拖。就怕積重難返,那天搞到財政危機一爆不可收拾。
b. 
王濤博士的建議中,部分需要以開放社會和市場機制為前置條件例如reducing entry barriersenhancing legal protection for the private sector、以及increase labor mobility等等。在中國政府目前的政治體制下,這些措施應該是說比做容易。這一部分我在討論「民主政治」時曾經觸及過。

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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=7208102
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王劍先生中國突然瀕臨崩潰這個談話相當有料不但提供了一堆數據(雖然我不懂它們指示著什麼樣和多大的危機)在他自己的看法外,還介紹了德國世界報》的論點和克魯格門教授的觀點。值得深入討論

我曾提到近來身體欠安大病沒有,但隔幾天就覺得身體虛弱臥床之外,在筆電前大部份時間也只有看看電影、連續劇的精神;難以思考討論哈斯博士08/21文章我拖到今天還寫不出來。等我完成它之後,就王先生談話做個筆記略表淺見並請參看這篇短評

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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=7211931
新聞茶座:中國突然瀕臨崩潰 / 王劍每日觀察 / 20230812
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPeGTg5bGvM

新聞茶座:中國突然瀕臨崩潰 / 王劍每日觀察 / 20230812

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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=7211920
謬誤乎?腦殘乎?
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胡卜凱

這位王先生的發言沒有提出任何數據或事實;是典型的:「喃喃自語;大呼小叫」。如果他提出國防、維穩各項預算占總預算或GDP的百分比,觀眾才有一個自行判斷的依據。

至於當下中國經濟困境是否有解,年底應該有個眉目。現在急著下定論,就不怕半年一年後被打臉

最後,今年中國經濟發展數據的確不如預期。但略有知識的人都知道:資本主義或市場經濟有所謂「週期性問題」。僅僅拿半年或三季的狀況來否定過去10年中國的成就在邏輯或理性思考上,這已經不是「謬誤」,應該近於腦殘了。

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習近平面臨的經濟困境無解
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引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=2976&aid=7211679
中國經濟體系正在進行(?)結構性改革 -- Filip De Mott
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China's economy is undergoing a structural transition, so don't expect a massive stimulus package, analyst says

06/22/23

China's economy is transitioning away from previous growth drivers, UBS analyst Tao Wang wrote.

*  That means Beijing is unlikely to launch the type of stimulus that earlier downturns saw.
"Large stimuli cannot address deep-rooted structural issues," the economist wrote in the Financial Times.

Waning growth in China won't be solved by massive stimulus, as the country's economic challenges are not cyclical hiccups, according to UBS Investment Research economist Tao Wang.

Instead, the government will likely provide modest support for the economy with a muted boost to infrastructure spending, she wrote in 
The Financial Times.

"Most importantly, I think Beijing's policymakers understand these economic woes are not just cyclical. Large stimuli cannot address deep-rooted structural issues," Wang said. "Willingly or not, China is transitioning away from growth led by property and local government, which is a painful process."

After a first-quarter bounce, Chinese growth has increasingly dragged as industrial output, retail sales, investment and exports all slowed sharply.

To stimulate economic activity, China's central bank recently 
cut interest rates, while government officials are discussing plans for infrastructure stimulus and a loosening of property market restrictions.

But Beijing is unlikely to launch the type of rescue that earlier downturns saw, as key dynamics have since changed, Wang predicted.

For instance, the current high levels of debt limit how much more spending governments can provide, she noted, while existing obligations like pensions and healthcare weigh more heavily.

Meanwhile, the housing sector is suffering from weak demand, as home ownership has already reached 80% in 2020 and the population is declining.

And with corporate and household confidence low, demand for credit is also low, so any monetary expansion may simply go towards local government spending that fuels an already unsustainable model.

Instead of a spending binge, Wang said that China should implement modest stimulus as well as policies aimed at structural issues.

"These could include reducing entry barriers and enhancing legal protection for the private sector; a well-publicized increase in healthcare and social protection spending; and deepening hukou (household registration) reforms to increase labor mobility and rural migrants' spending power," she wrote.

In the long term, stepping away from large government support may be beneficial to the country's economy, she added. That's as it could clear inefficient market participants, allow development in the private sector, and enable more social spending.

"Such a realignment of the roles of the state and the market would be welcome," Wang wrote.


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