伊格蘭女士是國防及軍事問題專家，目前任職於美國前景研究協會。本文不無「狼來了」的作用，或其真正功能在做為要求增加國防經費的「說帖」。內容中雖然缺乏具體數據，但其資料和分析都頗具參考價值。此文可與《中國海軍實力不容小覷》對照參看。

美國政策制訂者及其幕僚的思考盲點在於：

仍然想持續維持世界「獨霸」或「唯一超強」地位。

現實是：美國目前國力雖然談不上「強弩之末」，但唯我獨尊的日子已經一去不復返。美國當下唯一的出路是：調整心態，接受21世紀「全球崛起」和「多元自主」的國際生態。安分守己的省吃儉用，保住祖傳家業。


It’s Time to Retire the Term “Near-Peer” Competitor When It Comes to China

Mackenzie Eaglen, 06/06/23

For years, Pentagon leaders have described China as a “near-peer” competitor—not quite up to snuff when it comes to matching American hard power. The phrase carries an implication a state may possess similar capabilities and capacity to the United States, but never enough to be considered on equal footing.

No more.

China’s continuous and rapid transformation of its military and strategic capabilities means Washington can safely retire “near-peer” as an accurate classifier.

The 2017 National Security Strategy made waves when it declared the dawn of “great power competition” between the United States and assertive powers such as China and Russia. The strategy was quick to cite areas in which the United States had fallen behind and China had developed asymmetric advantages. 

Subsequent strategy documents written by the Biden administration have contained similar monikers. The 2022 National Defense Strategy declared China the “most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades,” and has highlighted strategic competition with China as a serious challenge for the US military for the foreseeable future.

When speaking on the Pentagon’s 2022 report China military power report here at AEI, Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, seconded this, emphasizing that China was the “pacing challenge” for the Pentagon in nearly all domains.

So which is it – great power competition, strategic competitor, or pacing challenge? One could endlessly argue over the semantics, but one thing is certain: China’s rapid and substantial investment in the modernization and expansion of its armed forces are changing the military calculus in the Indo-Pacific.

This shift comes on the heels of a decade where the United States has been focused on other theaters and threats, and long delayed crucial modernization programs to maintain our military’s (rapidly shrinking) edge. The Pentagon has affirmed as much, writing in the 2020 China Military Power Report that “China has already achieved parity with—or even exceeded—the United States in several military modernization areas.”

Take for example China’s rapid development of land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles. After years of development, China now possesses “largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the world,” with stocks that dwarf the United States in both size and capability. This doesn’t even account for China’s newer hypersonic weaponry, which is designed to strike US bases and fleets across the Western Pacific. As China deploys more weaponry, the United States’ premier attempt at deploying a hypersonic missile, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), has fallen behind as the program has faced delays and uncertainty.

Other strategic factors are also contributing to a shifting calculus. While China’s navy (PLAN), coast guard (CCG), and maritime militia (PAFMM) all continue to grow, under the President’s budget request for fiscal year 2024, our fleet will actually shrink by one ship as retirements outpace new construction. China has also sought to greatly expand its nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities in an effort to achieve parity with the United States.

While no other country is able to yet match America’s global power projection capability, China is working hard and fast on it. However, this widespread recognition of “strategic competition” over “near-peer” is emblematic of a shifting power calculations. Already, within the regions where conflict would most likely breakout, such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Straits, China is chipping away at American advantages.

More effectively competing and deterring China’s Communist Party regime requires relentless focus to build up credible combat power. Mending gaps and maintaining any shrinking advantage in sectors such as shipbuilding, the organic and commercial defense and aerospace industrial bases, or cutting-edge technology means the Pentagon has no time to spare nor ability to take its foot off the gas. Shrinking forces will not be able to change the minds of leaders intent on upending the status quo. As our military superiority continues to decline, leaders must be more clear-eyed and honest that we have met our peer and it is China.

Learn more: 

A Shrinking U.S. Air Force Cannot Deter America’s Enemies
The U.S. Military Needs More Capital for Capital Assets
Air Force Lags on Replacing Fighters in Japan, Despite Easy Solution
Don’t Let Budget Negotiations Weaken the Military