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美國中情局局長訪問北京 ---- Lili Pike
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美國拜登政府終於不得不坐下來跟中國政府對話。
如果伯恩斯局長此行能達成雙方某種程度的了解，布林肯國務卿的對華角色將會從黑臉變成白臉。或許在10月聯大召開前到北京敲定俄烏和談的框架。
CIA Director Traveled Secretly to China in May
Burns' visit to Beijing is the highest-level trip a US official has taken to the country during the Biden administration, part of an American effort to bring a 'thaw' to the US-China relationship
Lili Pike, 06/03/23
Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns traveled secretly to China last month for official meetings with Chinese intelligence officials, the Financial Times reported. It’s the highest-level trip a U.S. official has taken to the country during the Biden administration.
A U.S. official told the Financial Times that Burns emphasized “the importance of maintaining open lines of communications in intelligence channels” to his Chinese counterparts.
News of the trip follows comments President Biden made recently about a possible easing of US-China tensions. Speaking to reporters at the G7 summit in Japan last month Biden said, “I think you’re going to see that begin to thaw very shortly.”
The already tenuous relationship had iced over in February after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon that had flown over the U.S. That episode led to mutual recriminations and Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceling a planned trip to China.
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建立軍方溝通熱線前提-Julia Shapero
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中國駐美大使館官員於06/28對美國政府提出「建立兩國軍方溝通熱線」的前提：取消美國對北京的「制裁」。
該官員沒有具體說明「制裁」一詞的具體「所指」。由於「建立溝通熱線」只是兩國關係低潮的一個枝節部分，此「制裁」可能指：中國國防部李尚福部長在2018向俄國國防企業購買戰鬥機及其它設備，受到美國「制裁」一事。
我曾分析過(該欄開欄文)，美國在中國南海與台灣海峽玩不過也玩不起中國的誰先怂遊戲。急於成立一個防止擦槍走火的機制。中國政府自然有「合理喊價」的優勢。話說回來，美國的「制裁」對中國或李部長都是不痛不癢屁大的事。提出這個「前提」的作用，不過是殺殺美國政府威風，在聲勢上先下一城。如果美國日後又有什麼出格的言行，中國政府隨時拿翹，拒絕接聽電話。
China tells US to lift sanctions to reopen high-level military talks
Julia Shapero, 06/29/23
An official with the Chinese embassy called on the U.S. on Wednesday to lift sanctions against Beijing in order to reopen high-level military talks between the two superpowers.
“The US side knows the reason for difficulties in its military-to-military relations with China,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said at a briefing, according to Bloomberg. “It actually imposed unilateral sanctions on China.”
“Such obstacles should be removed before any exchange and cooperation could take place between the two countries,” Liu added.
Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping rejected Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s offer to set up a crisis communications line between the two countries during his visit to Beijing. In May, China also refused a meeting between the nations’ defense chiefs.
While it wasn’t immediately clear which sanctions Liu was referring to at Wednesday’s briefing, Chinese officials have previously pointed to sanctions against Chinese Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu for their refusal to engage with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Li has been the target of U.S. sanctions since 2018 over his purchase of warplanes and equipment from a Russian defense firm.
The U.S. has repeatedly pushed for “open lines of military-to-military communication” amid increasingly tense relations with China over issues like trade, Taiwan’s independence and a Chinese spy balloon that wandered into American airspace earlier this year.
For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.
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中國拒絕中、美國防部部長級會談 -- 路透社
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美國要求在星加坡舉行的亞洲安全會議中，雙方國防部部長會面並協商相關國安議題；此舉被中國拒絕。
路透社這篇報導的RISKS AND BENEFITS一節中有深入分析，請參考。我略為補充。
拜登上台之時，不論其團隊為了國內政情或誤以為美國仍有實力可以打壓中國，過去兩年多來的對中政策相當錯誤和出格。現在面臨窘境尋求「解凍」(見開欄文)，又不夠誠懇，自然碰了一鼻子灰。
伯恩斯的秘密訪問在搭橋鋪路，中國自然不宜拒絕。奧斯汀部長試圖正式見面，中國當然不肯給美方一個做秀說嘴的機會。尤其2024大選已經在暖身階段，中國絕不會給拜登好果子吃。
我推測，只有在美國承諾重新調整對中政策並拿出具體和實際行動後 – 如撤回經濟制裁措施 – 雙方才可能舉行部長級會談。不僅如此，布林肯部長可能還要先到北京去拜碼頭。
最後，我認為美、中兩國政府在政策和政策執行上的差別在於：
1) 美國缺乏制訂所謂「全盤政略」的視野和格局；
2) 其所以如此，是由於美國總統及其團隊都以「短線操作」(尤其在需要競選連任時)為思考和規劃基礎。
中國政府知道自己被容許犯錯的空間很小；長期習於經濟「五年計畫」的制訂；又沒有「訴諸選民」的包袱；從而，在制訂政策和執行政策兩方面比較能夠以全球和長期為思考的出發點。
China's snub of U.S. military leader highlights escalation risk
Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart and Yew Lun Tian, 路透社，06/03/23
WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) -Brief smiles and handshakes by U.S. and Chinese military leaders at a luxury hotel in Singapore on Friday belie a deep freeze in communications between the two armed forces that is becoming a growing worry at the Pentagon.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had sought a proper meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the annual Shangri-la Dialogue but Beijing refused. Instead, the retired U.S. Army general had to settle for a quick exchange at a dinner ahead of a weekend full of meetings among Asian military leaders.
The awkward encounter is just the latest example of what U.S. officials and analysts say is a troubling disparity between how the two countries view military risks, with the United States pushing for more and deeper military communications and China reluctant to engage.
Relations between the superpowers are increasingly acrimonious, with friction over issues from Taiwan and China's military activity in the South China Sea to U.S. efforts to hold back China's semiconductor industry.
The U.S. military has responded by pushing for open lines of communication with their Chinese counterparts - both at senior and working levels - to mitigate the risk of potential flare-ups, something it has long advocated.
China's leaders, by contrast, have been slow to establish military contacts and quick to shut them down during periods of diplomatic tension. After the U.S. downed an alleged Chinese spy balloon earlier this year the phone lines went silent and have stayed that way, say U.S. officials.
This has frustrated the United States.
"We have had a lot of difficulty in terms of when we have proposed phone calls, proposed meetings and dialogues," said Ely Ratner, U.S. assistant secretary of defense for the Indo-Pacific, speaking at event last week.
"We ... have had an outstretched hand on this question of military-to-military engagement and we have yet to have a consistently willing partner."
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson at the Chinese embassy in Washington, said on Friday in an emailed statement that communication between China and the United States was conducive to a greater mutual understanding.
"However, now the U.S. says it wants to speak to the Chinese side while seeking to suppress China through all possible means and continue imposing sanctions on Chinese officials, institutions and companies," the statement said. "Is there any sincerity in and significance of any communication like this?"
RISKS AND BENEFITS
China had an obvious reason to push back on a meeting between Austin and China's Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu: Li has been under U.S. sanctions since 2018 over the purchase of combat aircraft and equipment from Russia's main arms exporter.
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, said Beijing believed the sanctions on Li showed that the United States was not sincere in efforts to talk with China.
"The main reason why China is reluctant to have its defense minister meet with the U.S. is because we think dialogue must be on equal terms," Zhu said.
But other factors lie behind this, say analysts, including a different assessment of the risks and benefits and divergent approaches to negotiation.
While neither country wants an accidental military clash, China believes the U.S. military is operating in its sphere of influence, including in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.
As a result, China's leaders don't believe it's in their interest to use military talks to lower U.S. anxieties, said Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
"China wants the United States and its partners to feel worried about rising military and security risks in East Asia and then for Washington change its operational behavior to something that Beijing views as less threatening," he said.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, adds that China also sees the risks as lower than the U.S. does.
"Especially given the ongoing Ukraine war, the Chinese don’t quite see the danger of getting into a military conflict with U.S. as significant. Had they believed the threat is higher, they would adopt a different attitude toward the mil-to-mil dialogue,” said Sun.
Then there is China's view of how military talks fit into the broader U.S.-China relationship. The United States may want to keep security-related discussions on a separate track, but Chinese leaders would rather keep the focus on trade and economic issues. From that perspective, military talks are something to bargain with.
"Beijing is clearly favoring the economic relationship with American business and government over the more contentious political and defense channels," said Daniel Russel, the top diplomat for East Asia under Obama, now with Asia Society Policy Institute.
CIA director William Burns visited China last month and held talks with Chinese counterparts to emphasize "the importance of maintaining open lines of communication in intelligence channels," a U.S. official said on Friday.
COLLISIONS AND EMERGENCY LANDINGS
An accidental military clash with China is not a theoretical danger.
In 2001 a U.S. spy plane made an emergency landing on Hainan island after a collision with a Chinese fighter jet.
One Chinese pilot died and Beijing detained the 24-member U.S. crew for 11 days, releasing them only after Washington sent a letter saying it was "very sorry."
A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that since 2021 China had declined or not responded to over a dozen requests to talk with the Pentagon and nearly ten working-level engagement requests.
The responses vary but, as with the latest snub, the answer from Beijing is no, one official said, without offering details.
"Frankly, it’s just the latest in a litany of excuses," the senior U.S. official said.
(Reporting by Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart, David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, Yew Lun Tian, Martina Pollard and Laurie Chen.Editing by Don Durfee, Alistair Bell and Gerry Doyle)
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