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《《中國10年崩潰論》簡介》讀後
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「地緣政治」分析家柴翰先生今年一月在某談話節目中語出驚人,預測中國10年後將全面崩潰;並提出三項數據支持自己的說法。《雅虎金融版》克拉克先生介紹並報導了他的觀點;轉載於下。克拉克先生的文章風趣淺顯,我就不翻譯了;只就柴翰先生的三項數據做個簡單評論。

1.  對外出口衰退9.9%

中國2022出口總值比前一年衰退9.9%。幅度雖大,但不是基於所謂的「結構性」原因,如市占率萎縮、生產力降低、或遭遇技術瓶頸之類;而是由於「新冠肺炎」這個突發性、全球性的「黑天鵝」事件。此外,市場經濟本來就有週期性變動的內在狀況;單憑最近一年的「指標」不足以支撐柴翰先生的「預言」。如果中國出口總值從2022年起持續衰退三年,那就代誌大條了。

2.  8億人口夠用嗎?

這個部落格去年九月就有和「中國人口議題」相關的報導。今年一月中國社交媒體也在熱議「人口減縮」和「人口老化」的議題,因為在春節期間和接著來的身體不適,我沒有特別去整理相關資料。

我不認為這是個什麼大不了的問題:

1)  
我十多年前曾提出「大水庫」理論:由於中國人口眾多、幅員廣大,對震撼的容忍度相對的強。大風大浪到了中國,很快就成了漣漪 
2)  
同樣的,這是全球性的議題,中國由於人口眾多,「老化率」相對緩慢。如果「老化」會拖垮一個國家,其它國家肯定比中國先垮。
3)  
歐、美早就用移民來彌補勞工的不足,中國也可以用這個撇步。
4)  
人工智慧是另一個解決人力不足的工具;我不清楚中國這方面研發的具體進展;從報導看,似乎和歐、美並駕齊驅。五到十年內應該可以進入實用階段。  

3.  20.4%的比例過高嗎?

2021
年中國外銷佔同年GDP20.4%。這是就拖垮中國而言,三個指標中唯一具有相關性和決定性的一個。希望中國能早日落實「雙循環政策」。讓「外銷」盡早完成它的階段性任務。  

4.  結論

1) 
三個數據所顯示的現況中,兩個不具相關性或關鍵性。另一個則正在中國政府規劃的解決方案處理下。能否解決當然還言之過早;對中國領袖來說,它至少不是「新聞」或「置之不理」的事務。
2) 
我一向強調「居安思危」。寄望中國領袖能切實掌握:「馬上得之,寧可以馬上治之乎?」這句治國名言
3) 
任何人聲稱能預言10年後的發展,非傻即妄外,就是企圖打響名號,混個「名政論家」的頭銜躺著吃它個10年、20年。章家敦就是這樣一號人物



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《中國10年崩潰論》簡介 ---- Chris Clark
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'10 years left': This famed geopolitical analyst says China is going to collapse in the next decade — here are 3 key numbers that could support his contrarian forecast

, 02/20/23

Is China heading for a total collapse: political, economic and demographic?

Conventional wisdom says no way. It boasts a massive military and an iron grip on its people, and owns a whopping $870 billion in U.S. debt.

What’s more, American consumers are addicted to its goods. Apple makes smartphones there. Take a look at the clothes in your closet. Where are many of them made these days? Thought so.

While that’s no recipe for demise, some people would argue that China will soon be hanging on by a thread. That includes geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, whose new forecast makes a case few would otherwise consider.

Zeihan raised eyebrows in a January interview with Joe Rogan, in which he predicted the People’s Republic would collapse in 10 years.

"This is their last decade," Zeihan said of China and its economic success.

Whether it’s astute analysis or souped-up hype — dire predictions can raise a pundit’s profile and a podcater’s ratings, after all — there has been debate about China’s future. Part of the dicussion has been whether its trade and family-planning policies have undermined the goal of sharing the world’s economic stage with the United States.

Whatever their stance or opinion of Zeihan, there's little doubt a Chinese collapse would trigger unprecedented global volatility and a massive rebalancing of the world order. We may be a long way from Zeihan’s prediction about the fate of the nation, but with so much at stake it’s worth reviewing the numbers.

The 9.9% erosion: China’s struggling economy

From multiple and significant angles, China’s economy is under heavy strain. In particular, the nation experienced rare civil unrest due to its strict zero-COVID policy, which locked down vast sections of the economy, lowered industrial output and curbed consumer spending.

Some important metrics offer evidence of an economic contraction. For example, the country’s exports dropped 9.9% from the previous year in December 2022

You could take the export drop with a grain of salt, though. Steep inflation in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere has moved consumers to tighten their belts. So far, there’s no evidence to support another nation taking China’s place as a dominant source of cheap goods.

That noted, the nation’s debt has risen rapidly over the past decade, particularly among state-owned enterprises and local governments. That could hinder China's ability to limit future economic shocks. What’s more, ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. and other countries have added to the uncertainty.

But again, shoppers at Walmart and Target love low-priced wares and aren’t about to go on a long-term spending fast. (Nor will smartphone makers be moving out of China anytime soon.) The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, expects China’s economy to grow 5.2%, an increase from its October forecast of 4.4%.

Still, China’s economic headwinds could lead to major impacts. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy might create new price pressures in the U.S. if its export prices rise — and hurt the demand for U.S. products.

The 800 million population puzzle: aging out

As for its population, China suffers from a disadvantage in its demographics.

China’s population is getting older — fast. As its people age and retire, fewer working-age individuals are around to support them. The United Nations forecasts the nation’s population — now roughly 1.4 billion — to fall below 800 million by the year 2100.

The nation’s one-child policy, in place for more than three decades before it ended in 2016, exacerbated the problem and today threatens long-term economic prospects. Citing steep drops in birth rates, China in 2021 began to let couples have up to three children. Will it increase the workforce? Right now, it’s impossible to say.

Is 20.4% too much? Trade’s share of GDP

China's economy relies heavily on international trade; exports accounted for around 20% of its gross domestic product in 2021, according to the World Bank.

But trade dependence makes China vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and trade policy shifts. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed that reliance when demand for Chinese products dropped.

China is actively seeking to shift towards domestic consumption to drive growth. Its electric car manufacturers such as Nio and Xpeng have shown promise in leading the way. But a larger domestic shift overall will take time and require significant changes in China's economic structure and policies.

This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.


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