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「中、美關係」 -- 開欄文
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瀏覽8,123 ｜回應34｜推薦1 |
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習近平、川普終於電話會談 – K. Liptak/S. McCarthy
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Trump and Xi hold long-awaited trade call
Kevin Liptak and Simone McCarthy, CNN, 06/05/25
Washington/Hong Kong CNN — President Donald Trump emerged Thursday from a long-awaited 90-minute telephone call with President Xi Jinping of China encouraged that ongoing trade tensions could soon be resolved.
Calling the conversation “very good,” Trump said in a social media post after the call that follow-up talks would soon be arranged with his economic team, and that he and Xi had invited each other to visit each other’s respective nations.
Trump said the call focused almost entirely on trade, without touching on other geopolitical issues like Iran and Ukraine.
The call “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
It comes after a long period of silence between the leaders, and the discrepancy in how each side was talking — or not talking — about the call ahead of time only underscored a widening gulf between the world’s two largest economies.
Tensions have been rising between the two sides in the weeks after they agreed to a 90-day trade truce last month, which hit pause on their tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs. Trump accused China last week of “violating” the agreement — a charge Beijing has denied, while it accused the US of taking steps to “seriously undermine” that consensus.
In his readout of the Thursday call, Trump singled out the issue of rare earth minerals — which China had placed restrictions on – as an area where he made progress with his counterpart.
“There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products,” Trump wrote.
He said a meeting between the economic teams would occur “shortly” in a location to be determined. And he said the leaders look forward to visiting each other.
“During the conversation, President Xi graciously invited the First Lady and me to visit China, and I reciprocated. As Presidents of two Great Nations, this is something that we both look forward to doing,” Trump wrote.
US officials had signaled in recent days that a call between the two leaders could help jump-start progress in expected upcoming trade talks, which had appeared to stall following the initial truce reached in Geneva.
As CNN reported ahead of Thursday’s call, Chinese officials — who were deeply wary of Trump’s unpredictability and track record of putting foreign leaders in awkward or embarrassing situations — had put off a phone call, according to people familiar, even as Trump stated on multiple occasions this spring that he expected to speak with Xi soon.
The president’s Oval Office ambushes of Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa caught the attention of officials in China, those people added, and officials wanted to avoid anything similar, even in a private conversation.
But Trump regards securing a new agreement with Beijing both as a critical component of his broader trade agenda and as a necessary follow-up from his first term, when trade deals with China got derailed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The two leaders are known to have last spoken on January 17, days before Trump’s inauguration. They are navigating a fractious relationship, with recent points of contention stretching beyond their gaping trade imbalance.
Following the Geneva talks last month, US officials had expected China to ease export restrictions on rare earth minerals, which had been imposed in April in retaliation against Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Chinese goods. The minerals are an essential part of everything from iPhones and electric vehicles to big-ticket weapons like F-35 fighter jets and missile systems.
But the restrictions haven’t been lifted, causing intense displeasure inside the Trump administration and prompting a recent series of measures imposed on China, three administration officials told CNN last week.
Beijing, meanwhile, has bristled as Washington warned companies against using AI chips made by China’s national tech champion Huawei, moved to limit critical technology sales to China and announced that the US would “aggressively revoke visas” for Chinese students in the US with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.
This is story has been updated with additional information.
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晶片齟齬導致中、美關係緊張 - Bloomberg News
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韋布斯特先生顯然是一位蛋頭學者(下文倒數第2段)；川普上任三個月後，他還沒看出此人天賦異稟，其「邏輯」與眾不同？另請參見First Cracks Emerge in US-China Trade Truce。
US-China Tensions Over Chips Risk Hurting Trade Truce, Dialogue
Bloomberg News, 05/21/25
(Bloomberg) — US-China tech tensions are flaring again, with Beijing threatening legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co.’s chips, casting a shadow over a recent trade truce and efforts to sustain dialogue.
China’s Commerce Ministry said in a Wednesday statement that entities could breach the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law by assisting in the US curbs, without specifying the punishment. The move escalates the tech dispute even as Chinese officials express their wish to improve relations.
The US Commerce Department had warned that using the Huawei semiconductors “anywhere in the world” would violate US export controls before later removing the place reference. China has said the Trump administration’s actions on chips undermined recent trade talks in Geneva.
Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai, said the amendment suggests continued contact between the two sides, at least at the working level.
“The challenge is how both sides can keep the momentum gained from the Geneva talks,” he said. “I hope there can be high-level talks next month. But nothing’s guaranteed at the moment.”
On the same day of the Chinese warning, Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu told new US ambassador to China, David Perdue, that Beijing hopes the US will work together to promote ties.
This followed a meeting the day before between People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng and former US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, now chairman of Warburg Pincus, according to a brief statement from the central bank.
In a separate sitdown between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Asia Society CEO Kyung-wha Kang on Tuesday, China’s top diplomat said China and the US should work toward finding the right way to get along by fostering positive engagement in the Asia-Pacific region first.
The flurry of exchanges comes after high-level talks in Switzerland earlier this month, where both nations agreed to a 90-day pause in some reciprocal tariffs, although substantial levies remain on Chinese imports.
These interactions appear to be part of Beijing’s effort to maintain dialogue while conflicts concerning US curbs on semiconductors and China’s control over critical minerals show little sign of resolution. China’s alleged role in fentanyl’s flow into the US also remains a significant point of contention, with American officials pressing China for greater cooperation.
The simultaneous trade thaw and persistent dispute over access to technology underscore the challenge of resolving the economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
“My instinct is that tariffs are on a somewhat independent track from weaponizing supply chains. The logic is different,” said Graham Webster, who leads the DigiChina project at the Stanford University Cyber Policy Center.
Webster suggested that if the countries reach a more comprehensive trade deal, “the tech restrictions on one or both sides will be on the table.”
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日本西線能夠無戰事？ - MARI YAMAGUCHI
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山雨欲來風滿樓；有人歡喜有人愁。
Stress and fear roil a tiny, rapidly militarizing Japanese island near Taiwan
MARI YAMAGUCHI, 02/26/25
YONAGUNI (與那國島), Japan (AP) — This tiny island on Japan's western frontier has no chain convenience stores. Nature lovers can dive with hammerhead sharks and watch miniature horses graze on a hill.
But the wooded mountain ranges now carry radar sites. A southern cattle ranch has been replaced with the Japanese Ground Self Defense Force's Camp Yonaguni. Japan and its ally, the United States, hold joint military exercises here. Plans are underway to add a new missile unit and expand a small airport and port.
All of the buildup has cemented the island as a front line in a potential clash over Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island that China claims as its own.
“As a child, I was so proud of this westernmost border island,” said Fumie Kano, an innkeeper on Yonaguni. “But recently, we are repeatedly told this place is dangerous, and I feel so sad.”
The militarization has been especially felt as the island's population shrinks. There are less than 1,500 local residents. Supporters say new servicemembers arriving are needed for the island's safety and struggling economy. Opponents like Kano say the military buildup is damaging the environment, making the island's economy dependent on the military and could provoke an attack.
On the front line
Yonaguni is only 110 kilometers (68 miles) east of Taiwan, around which China has bolstered military activity. Worried about a conflict, Japan has made a “southwestern shift” in its military posture and accelerated defense buildup and spending around the front line.
Missile units for PAC-3 interceptors have been deployed on Yonaguni and nearby Ishigaki and Miyako islands.
Yonaguni residents find themselves at the center of the geopolitical tension. A recent government plan to deploy more missiles, possibly long-range, has caused unease about the future of the island, even among those who initially supported hosting troops.
Kano, a Yonaguni native, recalls that officials and residents once wanted to improve the economy and environment through commercial exchanges with Taiwan by operating direct ferries between the islands. But that was set aside when a plan to host Japanese troops became an easier alternative to gain government subsidies and protection.
Disagreement about the plan has divided the small community. Support for hosting Japanese troops carried in a 2015 referendum; that meant the island's fate would be largely decided by the central government’s security policy.
A year later a 160-member coast watch unit was set up to monitor Chinese military activity, with radars built on Mount Inbi and elsewhere. Now there are about 210 troops, including an electro-warfare unit. Servicemembers and their families account for one-fifth of the island’s total population.
The local economy largely depends on the servicemembers and their families who use local shops, schools and community services.
There's worry on the island about the pace and extent of the militarization, says Kyoko Yamaguchi, a potter. “Everything is pushed through in the name of the Taiwan emergency, and many feel this is too much.”
A nonfatal crash in October of a Japanese army tilt-rotor aircraft Osprey during a joint exercise with the U.S. military on the island also caused apprehension.
Japan and China build their militaries
Japan's air and maritime forces in Okinawa’s prefectural capital of Naha are key to protecting the country's southwestern airspace and territorial waters.
The Naha-based Southwestern Air Defense Force is the busiest of Japan’s four regional air forces. In fiscal 2023, the force was scrambled 401 times, or 60% of the national total of 669, mostly against the Chinese, according to the Defense Ministry.
Rear Adm. Takuhiro Hiragi, commander of Fleet Air Wing 5 of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, says his group's mission is to fly P-3C aircraft over the East China Sea near Okinawa and its remote islands, including Yonaguni, and the Japanese-controlled Senkaku island, which Beijing also claims.
“We have to be mobile, quick and thorough to keep tabs in this region,” Hiragi said, noting the presence of key sea lanes in the area, including those that China uses to navigate the Pacific Ocean. “We watch over their exercises, not only near Taiwan but wherever necessary.”
Defense officials say China has been accelerating its military activities in the area between Taiwan and Yonaguni.
In August, a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane briefly violated Japanese airspace off the southern main island of Kyushu, prompting Japan’s military to scramble fighter jets and warn the plane. A Chinese survey ship separately violated Japanese territorial waters off a southern island days later. In September, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and two destroyers sailed between Yonaguni and nearby Iriomote, entering a band of water just outside of Japan’s territorial waters.
Growing fear
Yonaguni fisherfolk, who closely monitor foreign vessels, have been among the first to see the growing Chinese military activity.
In 2022, several ballistic missiles China fired as part of an exercise landed off Japan's southwestern waters following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in August. One of them landed just 80 kilometers (50 miles) from Yonaguni while more than 20 local fishing boats were operating.
Though it caused no injuries or damage, the Chinese drills kept fisherfolk from operating for a week, Yonaguni fisheries association chief and town assembly member Shigenori Takenishi said. “It was an extremely dangerous exercise that really made us feel China's potential threat right next to us.”
Fear of a Taiwan war rekindles bitter memories here of the Battle of Okinawa, in which about 200,000 people, nearly half of them civilians, were killed. Historians say the army sacrificed Okinawa to defend Japan’s mainland. Today Okinawa 's main island hosts more than half of the 50,000 American troops in Japan.
"Being at the center of this issue is very stressful for residents," said shopkeeper Takako Ueno. “I don't want people to imagine this beautiful island turning into a battlefield.”
To keep that from happening Yonaguni needs to be fortified, says Mayor Kenichi Itokazu, a military buildup advocate who has campaigned for the deployment of more Japanese troops for decades.
What happens in an emergency?
Some residents feel uneasy about their vulnerability, even amid the military buildup.
A government evacuation plan last year showed moving 120,000 people from five remote islands, including Yonaguni, to Japan's main islands would take at least six days. Some question whether such an evacuation is even possible.
Itokazu, the mayor, wants to build a shelter in the basement of a new town hall and to expand the Higawa port for evacuation by ship, a plan opposed by environmentalists who say there are rare marine species there.
But there's skepticism from some.
“It's absurd,” Kano said of the evacuation plan, because all of Japan would be in danger if Okinawa is dragged into fighting. “I just hope the money will be spent on policies that will help the people in Yonaguni live peacefully.”
Associated Press video journalist Ayaka McGill contributed to this report from Yonaguni.
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中國反制川普關稅的五個措施 - Michael Race
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看來都是些不痛不癢，虛晃一招的步驟。我可以想到兩個可能：
1. 中國沒有全面開戰的底氣；只能小打小鬧。
2. 中國沒有把「川普關稅」放在眼裏；不但認為它只是小孩子過家家，甚至藉力使力，用價格助長購買國貨的風氣。
過兩天習、川通話後應該就可以略見端倪。
Five ways China is hitting back against US tariffs
Michael Race, Business reporter, BBC News, 02/04/25
The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has escalated after China hit back against the introduction of tariffs by the US with measures of its own.
Beijing has set out to target specific American goods with retaliatory taxes, among other measures, following the blanket 10% tariff introduced by President Donald Trump on all Chinese imports to the US.
In some ways, this latest tit-for-tat is nothing new and builds on the long-running trade dispute between the nations, with tariffs having already been imposed and threatened on various goods since 2018.
Trump has said he plans to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping, so a deal could yet be struck. But if China proceeds with its response on 10 February as planned, what could the impact be?
Part of China's countermeasures to Trump's tariffs is to announce import taxes of its own on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) of 10%, and a 15% charge on crude oil.
The response from Beijing means companies wanting to import fossil fuels from the US would have to pay the tax in order to do so.
China is the world's largest importer of coal, but it gets most of it from Indonesia, although Russia, Australia and Mongolia are also among its suppliers.
When it comes to the US, China has been increasing imports of LNG from the country, with volumes nearly double 2018 levels, according to Chinese customs data.
But its overall fossil fuel trade is modest, with US imports accounting for just 1.7% of China's total crude oil bought from abroad in 2023. This suggests China is not dependent on the US and so the impact of the tariffs on its economy could be minimal.
Rebecca Harding, a trade economist and chief executive of the Centre for Economic Security think tank, said China could easily source more supplies from Russia, where it has already been buying oil on the cheap as the Kremlin seeks to fund its war effort.
On the flipside, the US is the world's largest LNG exporter, and so has plenty of other customers, particularly the UK and the European Union.
Agricultural machinery, pick-up trucks and big cars
As well as fuel, China has slapped a 10% tariff on agricultural machinery, pick-up trucks, and some large cars.
But China is not a big importer of US pick-ups and it gets most of its cars from Europe and Japan, so a 10% tariff on an already small number of imports would not hit consumers too hard.
In recent years, China has increased investments in farm machinery to enhance production and reduce reliance on imports, and to strengthen its food security.
So the introduction of tariffs on agricultural machinery might be another move to try to boost domestic industry.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at consultancy Capital Economics, said all the tariff measures were "fairly modest, at least relative to US moves".
He suggests that China's targeted goods represent about $20bn (£16bn) worth of annual imports - around 12% of China's total imports from the US.
"This is a far cry from the more than $450bn worth of Chinese goods being targeted by the US."
But he said China had "clearly been calibrated to try to send a message to the US [and domestic audiences] without inflicting too much damage".
Google probe
The Chinese authorities have also announced some non-tariff measures, one of which is an anti-monopoly investigation into US tech giant Google.
It is unclear what the investigation will involve, but for context, Google's search services have been blocked in China since 2010.
The company still has some business presence in the country through providing apps and games to the Chinese markets by working with local developers.
But China only generates about 1% of Google's global sales, which suggests if it cut ties entirely with the country, it wouldn't be much worse off.
Calvin Klein added to 'unreliable entities' list
China has added PVH, the American company that owns designer brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, to its so-called "unreliable entity" list and accused them of "discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises".
The list, which has other US firms on it, was created in 2020 by Beijing amid the heating up of trade tensions.
For Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, being on China's list will make it harder to do business in the country. They may face sanctions, including fines, and having the work visas of their foreign employees revoked.
Regulators will also go to factories of the firms to investigate operations, according to Andreas Schotter, professor of international business at Western University in Ontario, Canada.
The US has its own "entity list", which bars certain organisations from buying products from US companies without approval from Washington.
"China is hitting back in the same way President Trump is accusing Chinese companies. This is all part of the US driven de-coupling of the US and China," Prof Schotter added.
Export controls on rare metals
While tariffs have been placed on the companies wanting to import goods from abroad, China has also imposed export controls on 25 rare metals.
Some of the metals are key components for many electrical products and military equipment.
China has mastered the ability to refine such metals, and produced almost 90% of global refined output.
The restricted list includes tungsten, which is difficult to source and a crucial material for the aerospace industry.
While there are restrictions on exports, Mr Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics, said it was notable that the critical metals China imports from the US, which are used to make high-end chips, semiconductor machinery, pharmaceuticals and aerospace equipment were not targeted in any measures.
The experience of previous rounds of restrictions suggests exports will drop sharply as companies scramble to get licences, a process that takes several weeks.
When it comes to the impact of the restrictions, it appears the US has a plan. On Monday, Trump said he wanted Ukraine to guarantee the supply of more rare earth metals in exchange for $300bn of support in its fight against Russia.
相關訊息：
What are tariffs and why is Trump threatening to use them?
Trump sows uncertainty - and Xi Jinping sees an opportunity
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中國宣佈將反制川普關稅 ---- Laura Bicker
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Beijing hits back – can China and US avoid trade war escalation?
Laura Bicker, China correspondent, 02/04/25
Beijing has made its decision. After days of warning of counter measures and urging Washington to enter negotiations and "meet China halfway", it has decided to hit back – or at least threaten to retaliate with its own tariffs.
China said it would implement a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas products as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large-engine cars imported from the US from 10 February.
The date is important. It means there is still time for the world's two largest economies to step back from the brink of a trade war.
The two leaders have scheduled a call later this week, according to the White House, and there are signs, despite today's announcement, that China is in listening mode and is keeping the door open for talks.
Firstly, China's counter measures are limited in scope compared to Donald Trump's levy of 10% on all Chinese goods heading to the US.
America is the biggest exporter of liquid natural gas across the world, but China accounts for only around 2.3% of those exports and its major car imports are from Europe and Japan.
This calculated and selective targeting of goods may just be an opening shot by Beijing, a way of gaining some bargaining power and leverage ahead of any talks.
Officials in China may be encouraged by the cordial start to the US-China relationship since Trump took office.
The US president said he had a "very good" phone call with President Xi days before his inaugural ceremony, which was attended by the highest-level Chinese official ever to be dispatched to such an event. He has also suggested that he hopes to work with Xi on resolving Russia's war in Ukraine.
President Xi might not want to pick a fight with Trump just yet as he is busy trying to shore up his own ailing economy.
This is also familiar territory for both leaders – although they might not be keen to relive the past. There was a honeymoon period in US-China relations during Trump's last term, before the relationship soured.
To deal or not to deal
It will also be far more difficult for Trump to do a deal with China than with Mexico and Canada - and much will depend on what he wants from Beijing.
China is Washington's chief economic rival and cutting the country off from major supply chains has been a goal of the Trump administration.
If Trump asks for too much, Xi might feel he can walk away and there will be limits on just how far he is willing to be pushed.
The US president is dealing with a far more confident China than he did back then. Beijing has expanded its global footprint, and it is now the lead trade partner for more than 120 countries.
Over the past two decades, it has also steadily tried to reduce the importance of trade to its economy and ramped up domestic production. Today, imports and exports account for around 37% of China's GDP, compared with more than 60% in the early 2000s, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
The 10% tariff will sting, but Beijing may feel it can absorb the blow – for now.
The fear will be that President Trump is serious about ramping up that percentage to the 60% he pledged during his campaign or that he will continue to use the threat of tariffs as a recurring diplomatic tool to hold over Xi's head.
If that happens, Beijing will want to be ready and that means having a clear strategy in case this escalates.
Learning from the past
The last time the leaders signed a deal it did not end well.
The two countries issued tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods from 2018.
It lasted more than two years until eventually China agreed to spend an extra $200bn (£161bn) a year on US goods in 2020.
Washington hoped the deal would bring down the huge trade deficit between China and the US, but the plan was derailed by the Covid pandemic and that deficit now sits at $361bn, according to Chinese customs data.
There are also key challenges for China as it is thinking several steps ahead in any negotiation.
Beijing still sells nearly four times more goods to the United States than it buys - and during Trump's first term in office, it ran out of items to target.
Analysts believe that China is now looking at a wider range of measures than just tariffs to retaliate if the trade war ramps up.
The clock is ticking. This is not a full trade war, yet. Businesses around the world will be watching to see if the two leaders can reach some kind of settlement later this week.
相關訊息：
Trump's trade war with neighbours is delayed
Share falls ease after Trump tariff turmoil
Five ways China is hitting back against US tariffs
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習總警告川普：小手勿動，適可而止 -- Huileng Tan
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Xi was unusually frank in spelling out China's 4 'red lines' for the US, a clear warning for Trump's China hawks
Huileng Tan, 11/22/24
* Xi Jinping was unusually candid with Joe Biden in their last meeting as their countries' leaders.
* Xi outlined China's "red lines" for the US, including the country's rights to development.
* Beijing was setting ground rules for the incoming Trump administration and its China hawks.
China's leader, Xi Jinping, is gearing up for Trump 2.0 with some ground rules for the administration's China hawks.
Last weekend, Xi met US President Joe Biden at the 31st APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Lima, Peru. He told Washington not to cross "four red lines" — which analysts say is a clear message for the incoming Trump administration.
The four hot-button issues are Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China's path and system, and the country's rights to development.
"These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations," Xi said, according to a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry.
Xi's explicit message is notable because it appears to be the first time these "red lines" have been issued at the presidential level, said Igor Khrestin, a managing director of global policy at the George W. Bush Institute, a think tank.
"This is an attempt to 'set the floor' for US-China relations, in light of the uncertainty surrounding the second Trump Administration," Khrestin told Business Insider.
To be sure, it's not the first time Beijing has mentioned "red lines" in diplomatic settings, and the four no-go zones are consistent with China's position on the issues. Its foreign minister, Wang Yi, has warned against crossing Beijing's "red lines" in the past.
The remarks show Beijing is paying close attention to the nomination of China hawks in Donald Trump's administration, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — who has been sanctioned by Beijing — to the position of secretary of state.
Xi's language raised some eyebrows, with analysts calling it "harsh" and deeming China's foreign-ministry readout "strikingly negative" in some sections.
In an article published Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a think tank, Jersey Lee, an international-affairs analyst, said Xi's remark that "if U.S. side always says one thing but does another, it will be detrimental to its own image, and undermine trust between China and the United States" was "surprisingly frank."
Xi named Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te
Of the four "red lines," Taiwan is the most sensitive issue between the two countries, as Xi has repeatedly said over the years.
Beijing claims Taiwan as its territory and has said recently that it'll never commit to renouncing the use of force over the island. The area is strategically important to the US as a leader in semiconductor production and as a key security hub.
The sensitivity over Taiwan is even more apparent because last weekend may have also the first time that Xi called Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party — whom Beijing branded as a separatist — by his name. Chinese leaders rarely mention Taiwanese leaders by name in public.
"If the US side cares about maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait, it is crucial that it sees clearly the true nature of Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities in seeking 'Taiwan independence,' handles the Taiwan question with extra prudence, unequivocally opposes 'Taiwan independence,' and supports China's peaceful reunification," the Chinese ministry readout said.
The White House's readout of the same meeting, however, didn't mention Lai. That prompted Tsai Ming-yen, the director of Taiwan's National Security Bureau, to question whether China's state media and its foreign ministry were using cognitive warfare tactics.
Rockier times ahead of US and China
In 2018, Trump said he had an "incredible relationship" with Xi. But things could change dramatically with the President-elect calling for 60% tariffs.
Beijing seems to prefer a more conciliatory approach with Trump's new team in the short term to avoid dramatic developments, Khrestin said.
"Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Xi Jinping has consolidated in his view that the United States and its allies have become intractable impediments to China's rightful rise as the dominant global power," Khrestin said.
Trump 2.0 doesn't change that long-term calculus, and the US-China relationship is likely to worsen in the long run because Beijing is inflexible in its "red lines," he added.
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《美、中關係其實蠻穩定》讀後
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布蘭默博士認為：美、中關係在當下其實蠻穩定(請見本欄上一篇貼文)。支持他這個看法的論點之一是：中國對布林肯國務卿這次訪問的接待規格和報導方式。其次，中、美兩國在中東地區的目標一致：都希望交戰各方能盡快停火並達成某種和平協議。
但他同時也指出：長遠來看，美、中利益相左之處太多，維持穩定關係是一個極具挑戰性的工作。此外，美國內部種種群體/集團因為各自利益或訴求，常常拿中國做為假想敵或出氣筒；導致媒體上經常看到撻伐中國的聲音。
如我所說，中國已經走出必須「韜光養晦」的階段；和美國發生磨擦乃至衝突的或然率勢必與日俱增。維持穩定關係在於雙方知所節制：
1) 中國政府和官員要學會「擺出笑臉，手持大棒」的個中三昧。
2) 美國政府和官員要了解全球目前早就進入G2局面，美國橫行霸道「吃獨食」的時代已經一去不復返了。
如果雙方官員、學者、和啦啦隊員還在自我感覺優越，不能覺醒；兩國人民只有剉咧等大禍臨頭了。
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美、中關係其實蠻穩定 -- Ian Bremmer
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請參見本欄下一篇的《讀後》。
Why the US-China relationship is more stable than you might think
Ian Bremmer, 04/29/24
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. US Secretary of State Tony Blinken in the Middle East right now. But he just came from China, Beijing and Shanghai, and the US-China relationship is what I'm thinking about. Want to give you a state of play.
It continues to be better managed and more stable than we've seen in a long time. Now, not clear that would necessarily be the case, given the number of issues and places where we have friction between these two countries. Just over the course of the last couple weeks, you've got President Biden, putting new tariffs on Chinese steel, opening a new investigation into Chinese shipbuilding. You've got this anti TikTok policy that's coming down from US Congress. You've got $2 billion in additional military aid for Taiwan from the United States. You've also got lots of criticism from the Americans on ongoing Chinese support, dual use technologies for the Russians, allowing them to better fight the war in Ukraine.
Given all of that, is the relationship starting to become much more confrontational? And the answer is not really. It's true that the Chinese foreign minister said that the Americans need to choose between having a relationship of containment and a relationship of partnership, and it's certainly true that the Americans would rather have it both ways. They want to have partnership in areas where it suits the Americans, and containment in areas where it suits the Americans. The Americans getting away with more than that than other countries can because the US is the most powerful country in the world and ultimately the Chinese need Americans more than Americans need China. Still, there's a lot of interdependence, and there is an ability to push back. How much is China actually doing that? And the answer is there's been very little direct Chinese tit for tat, despite all of the policies I just mentioned. It is true that overnight, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that there would be resolute and forceful measures if the supplemental support for Taiwan, which is a red line for the Chinese, is signed and Taiwanese assistance from the US moves ahead, and I suspect that means we're going to see some more sanctions from China against US defense contractors.
That is largely symbolic. It is a tit for tat. But on all the other policies I've mentioned that the Americans have just brought against China, we've seen Chinese focus on making their country and their economy more resilient against American efforts to contain, but not hitting the Americans back, not calibrated, moves of sanctions or reciprocal investigations. In fact, the Chinese have been pretty stable.
Also. We saw that Xi Jinping still met with Secretary of State Blinken directly, a meeting that would be very easy for the Chinese government to take down, and historically certainly wouldn't have been present if there had been a lot of tension in the relationship. They chose not to do that. And in fact, Blinken went to a record store, you know, he plays guitar and sings, and he's into music. And the coverage from the Chinese state media of that trip was very humanizing, was very friendly, frankly, better coverage of a US secretary of state than I've seen at any point since Xi Jinping has been in power. That's something it's very easy for the Chinese government to put their thumb on the scale if they want to show that they're unhappy with where the US relationship is. I think about Obama and the town hall, that he wanted to put together and the Chinese unwilling to give him the kind of coverage that the Americans at the time had wanted. You know, this is a lesser official from the US and is still getting, frankly, tremendous treatment from the Chinese government. I think that matters a lot.
Having said all of that, this is a relationship that is becoming more challenging to manage. And that's true because in the United States, whether you're Democrat or Republican, one of the very few things you can agree on in foreign policy is that there is a benefit in going after China. So the policy from the US is not just about Biden making decisions himself, but it's also about members of Congress. It's about governors. It's about the media. All of whom are taking their own shots. And they're not coordinated. Where from China, if Xi Jinping wants it, everyone basically rose in the same direction. Now, there are lots of American corporations and banks that are sending their CEOs, making trips with China right now. And there's much more people to people engagement between the two countries, something that Chinese officials are strongly focused on.
There's a lot more communication and cooperation on things like climate, as well as in response to America's fentanyl crisis, where the Chinese are shutting down the labs, the companies that have been exporting the precursor chemicals. Those things matter. They are engaged. There's also a lot of willingness of the United States, at the highest level, to provide more information to China, just on what the Americans are seeing happening around a confrontation in the Middle East that China would like to see a cease-fire for, so would the Americans at this point. And also, the Chinese don't have a lot of high level diplomats and a lot of ability to collect information that the Americans do. And when high level Americans are talking to their Chinese counterparts about the Middle East, the Chinese are very much in taking notes mode and appreciating that they're getting that information from the US.
So overall, I continue to see a lot of high level engagement that is very constructive. But coming against a relationship that has virtually no trust and where the baseline of conflict is going to pop up in a lot of different ways and a lot of different places around the world. Over time it's going to be harder to maintain that stable floor on US-China relations. But for now, I think we're likely to continue to see it, at least until elections in November.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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接受「和平統一」是避免戰爭的雙贏政策 – Quinn Marschick
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請參看本欄上一篇《讀後》。
The win-win way to avoid a Taiwan war
US should reaffirm long-standing policy against Taiwan independence and signal it would eventually accept peaceful reunification
QUINN MARSCHIK, 01/31/24
After the surprise January 26-27 meeting between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Taiwan independence remains the most problematic issue in US-China relations.
The Taiwan problem will remain, especially since the independence-supporting Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) held Taiwan’s presidency following the island’s recent election.
Although Washington underlined its long-standing policy against Taiwan independence in response to the DPP victory, more is needed to craft a balanced Taiwan policy to achieve American interests. Instead of words alone, the United States should put its One China policy into practice to boost cross-strait deterrence and avoid a war with China.
Critically, to assure Beijing and maintain the hope of a diplomatic resolution to the Taiwan question, Washington should more publicly assure Beijing that it would accept the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan.
To his credit, US President Joe Biden indicated this to Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their November 2023 meeting in San Francisco. Not only should Biden and his successors restate this publicly, but US government agencies should also make this an official talking point for both bilateral and multilateral engagements.
Increasing awareness of US acceptance of peaceful reunification – through joint statements, communiques, and formal records – will encourage other countries to adopt similar policies and further assure Beijing of America’s intentions. When America speaks, the Western-leaning world listens.
Through Washington’s insistence, concern over China-Taiwan ties has found its way into multilateral and bilateral diplomacy. This subsequently led to an uptick in US, European, and Indo-Pacific engagement with Taiwan and interest in Taiwan policy. More official and active US acceptance of a peaceful reunification outcome could see the West, Japan and South Korea formally adopt the policy as their own.
Providing further assurance, the White House should make clear to both Congress and Beijing that the President has the sole Constitutional authority to recognize the sovereignty of states.
The White House Counsel and the State Department’s Office of the Legal Advisor should jointly release official guidance reinforcing this, specifically citing Zivotofsky vs Kerry – whereby the Supreme Court denied Congress has a right to recognize a state’s sovereignty through law. This would show China that when a US President says the United States opposes Taiwan’s independence, he or she means it.
Moreover, Washington should reverse its trend of official visits with Taiwan, which has worsened Taiwan’s security for the sake of symbolism.
To carry this out, the United States should return to conducting relations with Taiwan primarily through the American Institute in Taiwan. This would mean avoiding sending de jure US government officials to Taiwan and keeping relations unofficial, even though the Taiwan Travel Act allows up to the highest level of official visits.
Additionally, should Congress pass any law encouraging the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative’s Office (TECRO) in Washington to change its name to the Taiwan Representative Office, the Department of State should convey the negative implications of a name change to convince TECRO to maintain the status quo.
The State Department should advise that a name change would likely lead to trade disruptions, Beijing doubling its efforts to poach Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies and increased military activity around the island.
It would also likely signal to China that peaceful reunification is a dead end with the United States effectively declaring it would recognize an independent Taiwan. Of course, this would mean force is the only path to reunification.
Returning to a more unofficial relationship with Taiwan and avoiding symbolic activities would undermine China’s talking points that the United States is supporting or encouraging Taiwan’s independence forces. As a result, it would reduce the primary necessity – from a Chinese perspective – to rely more on forceful means in dealing with Taiwan.
However, Washington should pair assurance to Beijing on Taiwan with Chinese concessions on areas of US interest. These could include accelerating nuclear arms talks, trade and economic policy reciprocity and curbing economic espionage. Advancement in any of these areas would be a major win for US vital interests – far more than the cost to reassure Beijing.
By actively reassuring China and the world of its opposition to Taiwan’s independence, the United States can prolong the cross-strait peace. Beijing would have less need to use coercive measures in its relations with Taiwan with restored mutual trust in US policy, which Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized during his 2024 World Economic Forum address.
Concurrently, Taipei would be further constrained to maintain the non-independence status quo and avoid symbolic activities that may promote ideas of sovereignty but harm security.
Despite a more active assurance policy, US efforts ultimately underpin its One China policy and the strategic ambiguity that has contributed to cross-strait peace for decades. This policy can work together with US commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances to create a more restraint-oriented Taiwan policy.
Taiwan is the likeliest flashpoint for a US-China conflict. Establishing acceptance of peaceful reunification as official policy, doubling down on opposition to Taiwan independence and restoring prior diplomatic practices are cheap means to deter a war over Taiwan. Now is the time to change course to reassure Beijing, before it is too late.
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《接受「和平統一」是避免戰爭的雙贏政策》讀後
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馬協克先生是一位中國專家；他這篇文章鐵口的主張：
美國應該明確表示：未來可以接受「和平統一」(請見本欄下一篇貼文)。
我不記得以前看過這麼直接表達的「對中政策」。
請注意：馬協克先生「聲稱」：拜登總統在2023年11月舊金山的美、中峰會時，已經向習總書記表達了這個立場。雖然上面這段話是他的「詮釋」；但從馬協克先生引用01/11/24的白宮新聞簡報看來，美國相當明確的回到了中、美建交時的外交政策(請見以下摘要)。我孤陋寡聞，這是我第一次看到這個訊息。
馬協克先生另一個有趣的論點是：一旦美國明確表達：「未來可以接受『和平統一』」的政策，美國政府可以要求中國在其它涉及「美國利益」的地方做相應的退讓。
我早就表示過：
1) 很少領袖會陷入兩面作戰；只有白癡會走上三面作戰的不歸路。
2) 美國核心利益的優先順位是：美國本土、歐洲、中東、和亞洲。
由於國際形勢的轉變：中級勢力遍地開花，獨霸地位日漸式微；美國的亞洲外交政策不得不擺脫「戰略模糊」的撇步，走向明朗化來制止台獨人士的「無知盲動」。
台獨夢可以醒了！
台獨謊言被拆穿了！
台獨新衣也被扒下來了！
希望有更多的美國「中國專家」，能像馬協克先生這樣認清現實，站在「美國利益」立場提出政策建言。
01/11/24的白宮新聞簡報摘要
When President Biden met with President Xi in San Francisco this past November, he made clear that U.S. policy toward Taiwan has not and will not change. He reiterated that we are committed to our longstanding One China policy which is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiqués, and the Six Assurances.
He indicated that we oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side. We do not support Taiwan independence. We support cross-Strait dialogue, and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner that is acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait. We do not take a position on the ultimate resolution of cross-Strait differences, provided they are resolved peacefully.
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