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中國新領導班子
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胡卜凱

中共20大產生新一屆中央委員會後,在10/23選出中國新領導班子(見以下摘錄新聞)

本屆政治局常委平均年齡65.1可說是老人政治。這保證了習大大2027的連任。除非他健康發生嚴重問體,或中共中央政策導致巨大危機,習大大幾乎篤定連任到20322027年換屆時,將至少有4 – 5位新政治局常委。2032後的中共最高領導人應該在那時浮出水面。否則中國未來前途堪憂。

此外,值得注意的是胡春華(59)沒有入選為第二十屆中央政治局委員;表示他的政治生涯告一段落。當然也表示少了一位可能繼承習大大的人才

習大大只將習家軍納入政治局常委以及破格留任72歲的張又俠將軍為軍委會副主席這兩個不尋常動作,雖然可以解讀為習總大權在握其實也反映出另一個不方便或不好說的現實:習大大感受到對自己權威的威脅;顧不得吃相難看,也要「鞏固領導中心」。我並沒有任何內幕消息;它只是一個合理推測。威脅的來源至少有以下五個:

a.     反腐浪潮」中被拉下馬的各級黨、政、軍幹部。

b.     現行國內經濟政策(包括「清零措施)下喪失利益的集團。

c.     國內經濟形勢(包括「財政狀況」和「房地產泡沫」)可能導致的危機

d.     國際嚴峻形勢可能導致的危機

e.     其它尚未浮現的人民不滿情緒(例如,一旦經濟嚴重衰退)

胡錦濤被請場前的畫面來看,我認為這是一個突發事件。很可能是因為胡錦濤前主席一時頭腦混淆,搞不清楚場合;導致他或者多管閒事,或者問東問西,造成主席台上的失序或失焦。

  

中國新領導班子出爐!習近平正式連任總書記 政治局7常委名單看這裡

2022/10/23 12:10 

【國際中心/綜合報導】中共20大昨天(10/22)在北京閉幕,大會產生新一屆中央委員會後,今天(10/23)召開第一次全體會議,選出新一屆政治局常委7人及政治局委員,正式落實總書記暨國家主席習近平第3任期以及領導班子。

 

大會公布中央政治局常務委員會委員7人名單,分別為習近平(留任,69)、上海市委書記李強(63)、中央紀律檢查委員會書記趙樂際(留任,65)、中央書記處書記王滬寧(留任,67)、北京市委書記蔡奇(66)、中央辦公廳主任丁薛祥(60),以及中共廣東省委書記李希(66)。依據名單排序,排第1位的習近平連任總書記。

 

而在中央軍事委員會,習近平當選主席,副主席為張又俠、何衞東,委員包括李尚福、劉振立、苗華、張升民

 

綜合這一排序及中共黨內慣例推斷,李強料將接掌國務院總理,趙樂際可望出任中國全國人大常委會委員長,王滬寧可望接任全國政協主席,蔡奇可望出任中共中央書記處排名第一的書記,丁薛祥有望接任國務院排名第一的副總理。但未來仍可能有變數。

 

 

7常委未來5年掌控中國政治中樞

 

中共中央政治局常務委員會是中共最高決策機構,共有7名委員,將在未來5年掌控中國政治中樞。

 

儘管習近平將打破文革後慣例取得第3任期已成定局,但在形式上,已被選為中央委員的習近平,今天仍要循例在中共20屆一中全會,由與會的205名中央委員選為政治局委員(24)、常委(7)、總書記。

 

為期7天的中共20大已於昨天閉幕,選出新一屆中央委員會和中央紀律檢查委員會,其中國家主席習近平當選中央委員,意味肯定連任黨總書記,邁向第35年執政任期。

 

習近平親信、上海市委書記李強也入常,被外界視為國務院總理熱門人選。



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下文分析中共20大中委名單(205)提供的訊息摘譯重點

1.     在官員的綜合能力專業能力兩者間前者更受到重視

2.     官員處理財政和金融事務的經驗受到重視

3.     未來地方政府理財和金融危機的責任和份量將加強

4.     中國領袖將以彈性務實的態度訂定國民生產毛額的目標

5.     20大顯示中國政府領導高層,包括財金機構,的大換血。

6.     從政治局成員的背景來看中共領導高層更趨於「一言堂」結構,這會增加產生重大政策錯誤的風險


China Party List Shows Value of Local Governments, Analysts Say

, 10/22/22

(Bloomberg) -- The Communist Party’s new list of Central Committee members saw a number of officials from local governments being promoted or added to the party’s leadership, underlining the importance their experience could play in future policymaking, economists said.

 

Some financial regulator-turned local government officials, like Yin Yong, a deputy party chief of Beijing, and Liu Guiping, a vice mayor of Tianjin, were promoted to be full or alternate members of the committee on Saturday. Both Yin and Liu used to be deputy governors of the PBOC (人民銀行).

 

Here’s a look at what analysts said about the changes to the Central Committee lists.

 

Xing Zhaopeng, senior strategist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group

 

“The new lists probably showed that comprehensive abilities rather than professional skills are more valued,” he said. He noted a few names in the lists are local government officials who previously worked in the financial system. “That’s probably because the handling of financial risks may involve more dealings with local governments in the future.”

 

Local government debt and the real estate woes will probably be the focuses of the next National Financial Work Conference, Xing said. “I think that’s why there are so many ‘comprehensive’ officials in the lists. The direction of what they need to deal with is quite clear,” he said, referring to the officials’ versatile working experience.

 

The National Financial Work Conference is China’s highest-level financial meeting and is held every five years.

 

Bruce Pang, head of research for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

 

Chinese leaders are “going to have a more flexible and pragmatic attitude toward the GDP target,” given the party’s priorities as revealed at the congress suggest they are still seeking to “strike a balance between growth and security/stability,” Pang said. “So the shake-up will not lead to dramatic changes of China’s macro policies,” he said.

 

Officials like Yin Yong, Wu Qing and Liu Guiping have experience in both the financial sector and local governments, which “prepared them for better understanding of the economy in the context of reality and local politics,” he added.

 

Wu Qing, 57, a current vice mayor of Shanghai and former chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, became an alternate member of the central committee for the first time. He spent years working at China’s securities regulatory body in his early career.

 

Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc.

 

“Serving the real economy is a focus of the financial policy making and so the experience of implementing the measures in practice has become more important now,” Ding said as he noted the financial and local government background of many officials.

 

Adam Wolfe, emerging markets economist at Absolute Strategy Research Ltd.

 

“This looks like a big overhaul of the leadership, and that’s going to include the financial institutions,” he said. …

..


“Given the leadership shakeup we’ve seen so far, it seems like China is moving further toward a personalist system of governance, which will increase the risk of grave policy mistakes. Much will depend on who becomes the premier,” he said.

 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.



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中共國的集體皇權又恢復成個人皇權

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