下文分析中共20大中委名單(共205位)提供的訊息。摘譯重點：

1.     在官員的綜合能力與專業能力兩者間，前者更受到重視。

2.     官員處理財政和金融事務的經驗受到重視。

3.     未來地方政府處理財政和金融危機的責任和份量將加強。

4.     中國領袖將以彈性和務實的態度訂定國民生產毛額的目標。

5.     20大顯示中國政府領導高層，包括財金機構，的大換血。

6.     從政治局成員的背景來看，中共領導高層更趨於「一言堂」結構，這會增加產生重大政策錯誤的風險。

China Party List Shows Value of Local Governments, Analysts Say

Bloomberg News, 10/22/22

(Bloomberg) -- The Communist Party’s new list of Central Committee members saw a number of officials from local governments being promoted or added to the party’s leadership, underlining the importance their experience could play in future policymaking, economists said.

Some financial regulator-turned local government officials, like Yin Yong, a deputy party chief of Beijing, and Liu Guiping, a vice mayor of Tianjin, were promoted to be full or alternate members of the committee on Saturday. Both Yin and Liu used to be deputy governors of the PBOC (人民銀行).

Here’s a look at what analysts said about the changes to the Central Committee lists.

Xing Zhaopeng, senior strategist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group

“The new lists probably showed that comprehensive abilities rather than professional skills are more valued,” he said. He noted a few names in the lists are local government officials who previously worked in the financial system. “That’s probably because the handling of financial risks may involve more dealings with local governments in the future.”

Local government debt and the real estate woes will probably be the focuses of the next National Financial Work Conference, Xing said. “I think that’s why there are so many ‘comprehensive’ officials in the lists. The direction of what they need to deal with is quite clear,” he said, referring to the officials’ versatile working experience.

The National Financial Work Conference is China’s highest-level financial meeting and is held every five years.

Bruce Pang, head of research for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

Chinese leaders are “going to have a more flexible and pragmatic attitude toward the GDP target,” given the party’s priorities as revealed at the congress suggest they are still seeking to “strike a balance between growth and security/stability,” Pang said. “So the shake-up will not lead to dramatic changes of China’s macro policies,” he said.

Officials like Yin Yong, Wu Qing and Liu Guiping have experience in both the financial sector and local governments, which “prepared them for better understanding of the economy in the context of reality and local politics,” he added.

Wu Qing, 57, a current vice mayor of Shanghai and former chairman of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, became an alternate member of the central committee for the first time. He spent years working at China’s securities regulatory body in his early career.

Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc.

“Serving the real economy is a focus of the financial policy making and so the experience of implementing the measures in practice has become more important now,” Ding said as he noted the financial and local government background of many officials.

…

Adam Wolfe, emerging markets economist at Absolute Strategy Research Ltd.

“This looks like a big overhaul of the leadership, and that’s going to include the financial institutions,” he said. …

..

“Given the leadership shakeup we’ve seen so far, it seems like China is moving further toward a personalist system of governance, which will increase the risk of grave policy mistakes. Much will depend on who becomes the premier,” he said.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.