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俄烏戰爭之「多算勝,少算不勝」和「知彼知己」
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下面摘錄幾段就烏克蘭軍隊九月初在烏國東北部卡其夫地區展開反攻前置工作的報導。其中也提到「情報」在這次反攻戰役中對烏俄雙方勝負的影響。「多算勝,少算不勝,而況於無算乎?孫子 始計篇》以及知彼知己,百戰不殆;不知彼,不知己,每戰必敗。」孫子 謀攻篇》其此之謂乎

 

The Critical Moment Behind Ukraine's Rapid Advance

, 09/14/22

WASHINGTON — The strategy behind Ukraine’s rapid military gains in recent days began to take shape months ago during a series of intense conversations between Ukrainian and U.S. officials about the way forward in the war against Russia, according to American officials.

 

The counteroffensive — revised this summer from its original form after urgent discussions between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials — has succeeded beyond most predictions. …

 

The work began soon after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told his generals he wanted to make a dramatic move to demonstrate that his country could push back on the Russian invasion. Under his orders, the Ukrainian military devised a plan to launch a broad assault across the south to reclaim Kherson and cut off Mariupol from the Russian force in the east.

 

The Ukrainian generals and American officials believed that such a large-scale attack would incur immense casualties and fail to quickly retake large amounts of territory. …

 

Long reluctant to share details of their plans, the Ukrainian commanders started opening up more to American and British intelligence officials and seeking advice.

 

Time was of the essence, U.S. and Ukrainian officials believed. To mount an effective counterattack, the Ukrainians needed to move before the first snow, when Russian President Vladimir Putin would be able to use his control of gas supplies to pressure Europe.

 

 

One critical moment this summer came during a war game with U.S. and Ukrainian officials aimed at testing the success of a broad offensive across the south. The exercise, reported earlier by CNN, suggested such an offensive would fail. Armed with the American skepticism, Ukrainian military officials went back to Zelenskyy.

 

“We did do some modeling and some tabletop exercises,” Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s policy chief, said in a telephone interview. “That set of exercises suggested that certain avenues for a counteroffensive were likely to be more successful than others. We provided that advice, and then the Ukrainians internalized that and made their own decision.”

 

 

Throughout August, at the behest of Ukrainians, U.S. officials stepped up feeds of intelligence about the position of Russian forces, highlighting weaknesses in the Russian lines. …

 

 

Together, Britain, the United States and Ukraine conducted an assessment of the new plan, trying to war game it once more. This time, officials from the three countries agreed it would work — and give Zelenskyy what he wanted: a big, clear victory.

 

But the plan, according to an officer on the general staff in Kyiv, depended entirely on the size and pace of additional military aid from the United States.

 

 

Ukrainian and American officials said the now weekly or biweekly Pentagon announcements of new shipments of weapons and munitions from U.S. stockpiles have given Kyiv’s senior commanders the confidence to plan complex simultaneous offensives.

 

 

The Kherson attack was never a feint or a diversion, according to people briefed on the plan. And it has succeeded in forcing Moscow to delay sham votes on whether parts of the Kherson region want to join Russia. But, as expected, the counteroffensive is moving more slowly given the much higher number of Russian forces there compared with Kharkiv.

 

 

Russia has been weakened. By failing to detect Ukraine’s buildup around Kharkiv, the Russian military has demonstrated incompetence and shown that it lacks solid intelligence.

 

While Ukraine may have an opportunity to recapture more territory in the east, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the south is the most important theater of the war.

 

 

The plan that emerged from the midsummer discussions relied heavily on U.S. intelligence and high-tech weaponry. …

 

“No one is spiking the football yet,” Kahl said. But, he added, “I think it really demonstrates to the world that the Ukrainians are capable of conducting complex, offensive operations.”

 

© 2022 The New York Times Company



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一敗再敗之俄軍克爾松市「轉進」
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胡卜凱

俄國國防部長宣布俄軍已完成從克爾松市西岸「轉進」至該市東岸。這雖然是一個戰術性動作,但無疑也是一個重大挫敗。

 

請參考下文的分析(此文發表於上述「宣布」之前)。

 

 

Analysis: Russia's planned Kherson retreat a double-edged sword for Kyiv

 

Andrew Osborn, 路透社,  11/11/22


·          Russia says it will pull back from western bank of Dnipro (尼普羅河西岸)

·          Planned retreat a major defeat, result of over-reach (撤退終究是個重大)

·          Ukraine sceptical about true Russian intentions

·          Fall back has upside for Russian military (撤退到尼普羅河東岸對俄軍有利) – analysts

·          'Too soon' to write off Russian army, says expert (目前還不能認定俄軍玩完了)

 

LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed his nation after Russia said it planned to withdraw its forces from the west bank of the River Dnipro in southern Ukraine he betrayed few signs of relief.

 

 

If it happens, the planned retreat could make life easier for the Russian army, in some respects, and harder for Ukraine.

 

"On the one hand, this is obviously a Ukrainian victory and a sign of big weakness on Russia's part," said Konrad Muzyka, a Polish military analyst who recently returned from Ukraine.

 

The withdrawal would bring Ukrainian forces closer to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014 and which Kyiv says it aims to retake, and would appear to end Russian dreams of extending a contiguous land corridor westward to other Ukrainian coastal cities or to Moldova.

 

But Muzyka said falling back was also the only right military decision for Russia to take because its forces on the western side of the Dnipro were too exposed, over-stretched and under-supplied, a position he called unsustainable.

 

 

"It's definitely a turning point, but it doesn't mean that Russia has lost or that Ukraine has won," said Barry, who said Moscow was still capable of taking the initiative if it could regroup for a fresh offensive or mount decisive counterattacks.

 

"It is far too soon to write them off."

 

HUMILIATION

 

 

This time, the announcement was made on state TV by a depressed-looking Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, and the plain-speaking Surovikin, and while Russia still held the territory it said it planned to cede, albeit under pressure.

 

Both men publicly accepted that Russia's position in Kherson had become untenable.

 

 

Regardless of any potential military upside, retreat would represent a humiliating defeat for Russia's political and military leadership.

 

 

WINTER REBUILDING

 

Getting its troops - estimated to number some 30,000 men - back to the eastern bank of the Dnipro will not be easy for Russia either, given Ukraine has damaged or destroyed all the bridges across it, forcing Moscow to rely on night-time ferries in range of Ukrainian rockets.

 

 

But if Russian forces do make it to the eastern bank largely intact with some of their hardware, they would be able to use the natural barrier of the river to dig in on a side, where they have already dug trenches, while keeping the city of Kherson in range of their own artillery.

 

The dearth of any safe working bridges able to transport military hardware would then become Ukraine's problem.

 

Muzyka and Barry both said that falling back to the eastern side of the Dnipro would allow Russia to shorten the frontline it has to defend and to free up more troops.

 

 

Despite all their setbacks, Brenton said he thought the Russians still hoped to hang on to Crimea - which he said Moscow cared about most - along with the land corridor they have carved out connecting it with Russia and continued access to Ukrainian water needed for Crimea, plus as much as the Donbas part of eastern Ukraine "as they could grab".



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俄烏戰爭近況
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胡卜凱

烏克蘭軍隊在聲南擊東光復近1/31/2個台灣面積大小的烏國領土,逼近俄烏邊境。前兩天又光復了烏國東部運輸重鎮萊門市,切斷俄軍補給線。烏國揮軍南下後,目前沿尼普羅河西岸挺進到距離克爾松市東北70英哩處

如果烏軍光復克爾松市,將直接威脅到克里米亞。普丁「用」還是「不用」戰術核武立馬就要見真章。如果他選擇後者,全球局勢將面臨第二次世界大戰以來所未曾遭遇的巨大變動。

有宗教信仰的朋友們,現在是祈求、禱告的時刻了。

 

Ukrainian troops overrun Russian forces, break through lines in recently annexed Kherson: Live updates

, 10/04/22

A Ukrainian counteroffensive that already has reclaimed thousands of miles is breaking through Russian lines in the southern Kherson region (克爾松地區) recently annexed by Moscow, Kremlin-installed officials said Monday.

 

Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-picked head of the Kherson province, said on state television that multiple settlements about 70 miles northeast of Kherson on the Dnieper River (尼普羅河) have been overrun.

 

...

 

Ukraine also reported making inroads in the Luhansk province (盧漢斯克省) days after reclaiming the strategic eastern city of Lyman (萊門市) in the Donetsk province (棟勒克省) near the border with Luhansk.



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普丁之胡說八道和悔不當初
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亓官先生
胡卜凱

俄烏戰爭之前與之初普丁號稱的出兵理由防止NATO東進」。這種胡說八道當時居然也有人相信。如果以下這篇報導屬實,就完全戳穿了這個謊言。

出兵之後,芬蘭和瑞典兩個傳統的中立國家立即宣布申請加入NATO這個保護傘,並啟動了入約程序。使得俄國從西面受敵在一夜之間變成西、北兩面受敵。經濟制裁目前看不出影響;據說這需要一段時間才能見效,而且後果深遠。戰爭當下的局面,不但顯示烏國人民為了維護自己的獨立和自由,奮勇戰鬥;不是普丁幻想的「簞食壺漿,以迎『俄』師(孟子 梁惠王下)更讓世人看出俄軍不只是紙老虎,而且是隻病如膏肓的貓如某評論家所說,「俄軍從世界上第二強的軍隊變成烏國境內的第二強軍隊。

相信普丁大帝午夜夢迴,一定有悔不當初之痛

 

Exclusive-As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by his aide: sources

 

09/14/22

 

PARIS (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.

 

 

Asked about Reuters findings, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "That has absolutely no relation to reality. No such thing ever happened. It is absolutely incorrect information."

 

Kozak did not respond to requests for comment sent via the Kremlin.

 

 

Two of the three sources said a push to get the deal finalized occurred immediately after Russia's Feb. 24 invasion. Within days, Kozak believed he had Ukraine's agreement to the main terms Russia had been seeking and recommended to Putin that he sign an agreement, the sources said.

 



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