下面摘錄幾段就烏克蘭軍隊九月初在烏國東北部卡其夫地區展開反攻前置工作的報導。其中也提到「情報」在這次反攻戰役中對烏、俄雙方勝、負的影響。「多算勝，少算不勝，而況於無算乎？」《孫子 始計篇》以及「知彼知己，百戰不殆；… 不知彼，不知己，每戰必敗。」《孫子 謀攻篇》其此之謂乎？
The Critical Moment Behind Ukraine's Rapid Advance
Julian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper, 09/14/22
WASHINGTON — The strategy behind Ukraine’s rapid military gains in recent days began to take shape months ago during a series of intense conversations between Ukrainian and U.S. officials about the way forward in the war against Russia, according to American officials.
The counteroffensive — revised this summer from its original form after urgent discussions between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials — has succeeded beyond most predictions. …
The work began soon after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told his generals he wanted to make a dramatic move to demonstrate that his country could push back on the Russian invasion. Under his orders, the Ukrainian military devised a plan to launch a broad assault across the south to reclaim Kherson and cut off Mariupol from the Russian force in the east.
The Ukrainian generals and American officials believed that such a large-scale attack would incur immense casualties and fail to quickly retake large amounts of territory. …
Long reluctant to share details of their plans, the Ukrainian commanders started opening up more to American and British intelligence officials and seeking advice.
…
Time was of the essence, U.S. and Ukrainian officials believed. To mount an effective counterattack, the Ukrainians needed to move before the first snow, when Russian President Vladimir Putin would be able to use his control of gas supplies to pressure Europe.
…
One critical moment this summer came during a war game with U.S. and Ukrainian officials aimed at testing the success of a broad offensive across the south. The exercise, reported earlier by CNN, suggested such an offensive would fail. Armed with the American skepticism, Ukrainian military officials went back to Zelenskyy.
“We did do some modeling and some tabletop exercises,” Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s policy chief, said in a telephone interview. “That set of exercises suggested that certain avenues for a counteroffensive were likely to be more successful than others. We provided that advice, and then the Ukrainians internalized that and made their own decision.”
…
Throughout August, at the behest of Ukrainians, U.S. officials stepped up feeds of intelligence about the position of Russian forces, highlighting weaknesses in the Russian lines. …
…
Together, Britain, the United States and Ukraine conducted an assessment of the new plan, trying to war game it once more. This time, officials from the three countries agreed it would work — and give Zelenskyy what he wanted: a big, clear victory.
But the plan, according to an officer on the general staff in Kyiv, depended entirely on the size and pace of additional military aid from the United States.
…
Ukrainian and American officials said the now weekly or biweekly Pentagon announcements of new shipments of weapons and munitions from U.S. stockpiles have given Kyiv’s senior commanders the confidence to plan complex simultaneous offensives.
…
The Kherson attack was never a feint or a diversion, according to people briefed on the plan. And it has succeeded in forcing Moscow to delay sham votes on whether parts of the Kherson region want to join Russia. But, as expected, the counteroffensive is moving more slowly given the much higher number of Russian forces there compared with Kharkiv.
…
Russia has been weakened. By failing to detect Ukraine’s buildup around Kharkiv, the Russian military has demonstrated incompetence and shown that it lacks solid intelligence. …
While Ukraine may have an opportunity to recapture more territory in the east, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the south is the most important theater of the war.
…
The plan that emerged from the midsummer discussions relied heavily on U.S. intelligence and high-tech weaponry. …
“No one is spiking the football yet,” Kahl said. But, he added, “I think it really demonstrates to the world that the Ukrainians are capable of conducting complex, offensive operations.”
© 2022 The New York Times Company
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