我在電訊產業工作了約十年。我工作的範圍在品質管理、研發後勤支援、及專案管理;對技術層面的了解只限於能把以上工作做得專業。
膫望智庫的《別“狂吹”5G了!》一文在技術面有精闢分析;但作者在政治經濟學和技術-企業動態關係的常識稍嫌不足。我在此略做補充;請參看開欄文《關於5G》。
《別“狂吹”5G了!》中有一段話說:
「同時我們也看到,美國運營商對5G並不感冒,美國總統特朗普的團隊甚至考慮由政府主導5G網路建設;而中國方面的運營商似乎也並沒有表現出人們想像中那樣高的興趣。」
根據sdx central的報導:
At least four major phone carriers in the US — AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint — have solid plans to introduce their mobile 5G networks in 2019. AT&T has even started trials with 5G mobile hotspots in 12 cities. Verizon is advertising a 5G home network (however, Verizon’s offering does not align with what standard bodies are defining as 5G).
Scott Fulton III先生的文章中對這四家公司的參與情況有較詳細的說明。
其次,如果運用得當,社會主義特色之一的「計畫經濟」有其效率和成果。二戰後日本經濟的復甦,政府的規劃和協調是重要因素;蘇聯在太空競賽中拔得頭籌是國家傾全力的結果。今天中國(和南韓)在5G研發中成為重要參與者當然也是政府主導的成績。由於美國在5G研發上明顯落後,加上5G在商機和應用上的重要性,要求(美國)政府介入以及檢討中、美兩國政經體制是當下5G相關話題之一。例如:《中國穩居5G龍頭地位》一文(A deeper tech concern is at the core of the U.S.-Huawei spat -- John Pomfret)就討論到這一點。
第三,如John Pomfret先生提及:
China also has strong-armed leading Chinese Internet platform companies— such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, JD.comand ride-sharing company Didi Chuxing — into taking a nearly $12 billion stake in one telecom provider, China Unicom, to subsidize its 5G rollout.
可想而知,中國其他營運商也(自願或非自願的)早就是5G研發的投資者或參與者。
最後,談談該文標題之一的「(5G)缺乏“殺手級”應用」。
有些技術是為了特定目的或「應用」而發展出來的,如原子彈或網際網路。但是,「技術」一旦形成,它會促使人們去「應用」它來別出心裁的牟利,而有了自己的「生命」或發展軌跡。美國國防部在研發網際網路時,絕對沒有想到它目前的「『殺手級』應用」之一 -- 社交媒體。
Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg對5G的評估(見Scott Fulton III先生的大作):
"The general purpose technology for the Fourth Industrial Revolution is actually the ambiguous sort of connectivity that 5G can bring," admitted Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg, in no less conspicuous an arena than the keynote address of CES 2019.
"So what is 5G? 5G is a promise," Vestberg continued, "of so much more than we've ever seen in any wireless technology. From the beginning, we had the 1G, the 2G, the 3G, and the 4G. They were sort of leaps of differences, when it comes to speed and throughput. When we think about 5G, we think about 10 gigabits per second throughput, we talk about 10x battery life, we think about 1000 times more data volumes in the networks. It's just radically different. I would say it's a quantum leap compared to 4G."
就是因為有一代接一代「工業革命」帶來的,無法預知的「商機」或「『殺手級』應用」,「資本主義」才能使馬克思的預言落空,苟延殘喘(或如日中天)的發展至今。
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